ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms may impact parts of
the south-central Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by
an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail.

...South-Central Plains...
A small cluster of thunderstorms across northeast OK, southwest MO,
and northwest AR this morning has remained mostly sub-severe
overnight owing to weak instability and deep-layer shear. Current
expectations are for this activity to further weaken as it spreads
eastward across AR and southern MO through mid/late morning. Outflow
from these thunderstorms has surged southward across much of OK per
radar imagery. Recent surface observations also show the primary
front arcs from the OK Panhandle vicinity northeastward into
central/eastern KS. A moist and moderately unstable airmass is
forecast to exist this afternoon along/south of the front where
daytime heating occurs.

Large-scale ascent aloft will remain nebulous/weak, with multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations present on the eastern
periphery of upper ridging centered over Mexico and the Southwest.
Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon and evening, potentially along and south of the residual
outflow boundary from the ongoing convection this morning. As
low-level lapse rates become steepened through the day, isolated
strong to severe gusts may occur with the more robust thunderstorms
that form. Even though deep-layer shear will remain meager, modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft may also
support occasional hail. The Marginal Risk has been adjusted for the
latest guidance and observational trends, with somewhat greater
confidence in convection occurring across the OK/TX Panhandles into
OK along/near the outflow boundary compared to locations farther
north in KS along the front.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A weak upper trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will
translate slowly eastward across parts of the OH Valley and Upper
Great Lakes through the period. A seasonably moist low-level airmass
will remain over these areas along/south of a front, but mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain quite poor. Ongoing precipitation
and cloud cover should also temper destabilization to some degree
through this afternoon, with only weak MLCAPE forecast to develop.
While isolated strong/gusty winds and small hail may occur with any
of the stronger cores that can form later this afternoon across
parts of WI into northern IL/IN and southern Lower MI, the overall
severe threat appears too limited to include low severe
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201616
SWODY1
SPC AC 201615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms may impact parts of
the south-central Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by
an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail.

...South-Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a couple of small thunderstorm clusters over parts of the Ozarks into northeast OK and
mostly clear skies farther west and southwest over OK into the TX
Panhandle. Surface analysis places a zone of outflow extending from west-central AR northwestward into north-central OK. The primary
front arcs from the OK Panhandle vicinity northeastward into
central/eastern KS. A moist and moderately unstable airmass is
forecast by mid-late afternoon across the Marginal Risk.

A relatively non-descript upper pattern, north of a flattened upper
ridge, features a couple of very minor perturbations slowly moving
east across the central High Plains into the mid MS Valley, to the
south of more amplified disturbances over the upper MS Valley and
ND. Weak capping and the aforementioned seasonably moist airmass
will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing near the
front and outflow late this afternoon into the evening. Diurnal
steepening of low-level lapse rates may yield an isolated risk for
localized severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. This
activity will likely diminish by mid evening owing to the loss of
heating.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
An upper trough centered near the IA/WI/MN/IL border will continue
to slowly migrate east across WI/northern IL today. Similar to
areas farther southwest over the south-central Plains, a seasonably
moist will undergo some heating in areas void of thicker cloud cover
and aid in 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing over WI according to forecast
soundings. Weak 0-6 km shear (i.e., < 20 kt) should temper updraft organization and limit storm intensity. Nonetheless, a couple of
strong gusts or small hail may occur with the more vigorous storms
this afternoon.

..Smith/Wendt.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201946
SWODY1
SPC AC 201944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms may impact parts of
the south-central Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by
an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail.

...20z...

...Oklahoma...
The primary update for this forecast was a slight northward
expansion of severe probabilities into far southern KS to encompass
the placement of a weak surface front analyzed in recent surface
observations. This boundary may act as a foci for thunderstorm
development later this evening and likely delimits the northern
extent of appreciable buoyancy/severe threat. Additionally, a
targeted corridor of 2% tornado probabilities was introduced to
parts of northeastern OK and far southeast KS. A residual outflow
boundary is noted in surface observations with temperatures on the
cool side of the boundary increasing into the low/mid 80s and
dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s. RAP mesoanalysis estimates
suggest MLCAPE has increased to around 2000 J/kg along this boundary
with decreasing inhibition, and VWP observations from KINX (Tulsa,
OK) sample 0-1 km SRH on the order of 125 m2/s2. This low-level SRH
and low through the lowest 3 km is notably stronger than depicted by morning/early afternoon model guidance, and is sufficient for at
least a brief tornado threat (though this threat is conditional on semi-discrete thunderstorm development on/near the boundary).

Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track. Latest GOES
imagery and lightning data show initial thunderstorm development
from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest OK. Thunderstorm coverage
should steadily increase through the evening across western to
central OK. Regional VWP observations continue to show meager
deep-layer wind shear, which implies that convection will largely
remain only loosely organized. While instances of large hail are
possible, strong heating/boundary-layer mixing will promote sporadic
strong to severe gusts this afternoon/evening (see MCD #2106 for
additional details).

...Illinois...
Consideration was given to introducing 5% hail probabilities across
central to northeast IL. Thunderstorms across this region have
periodically intensified to near severe limits based on MRMS hail
and vertical ice metrics. However, weak shear has limited storm
longevity with most convective cores persisting for only around
10-20 minutes. This trend should continue through early evening, but
the overall duration and coverage is expected to remain sufficiently
limited to warrant broader risk probabilities.

..Moore.. 09/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025/

...South-Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a couple of small thunderstorm clusters over parts of the Ozarks into northeast OK and
mostly clear skies farther west and southwest over OK into the TX
Panhandle. Surface analysis places a zone of outflow extending from west-central AR northwestward into north-central OK. The primary
front arcs from the OK Panhandle vicinity northeastward into
central/eastern KS. A moist and moderately unstable airmass is
forecast by mid-late afternoon across the Marginal Risk.

A relatively non-descript upper pattern, north of a flattened upper
ridge, features a couple of very minor perturbations slowly moving
east across the central High Plains into the mid MS Valley, to the
south of more amplified disturbances over the upper MS Valley and
ND. Weak capping and the aforementioned seasonably moist airmass
will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing near the
front and outflow late this afternoon into the evening. Diurnal
steepening of low-level lapse rates may yield an isolated risk for
localized severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. This
activity will likely diminish by mid evening owing to the loss of
heating.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
An upper trough centered near the IA/WI/MN/IL border will continue
to slowly migrate east across WI/northern IL today. Similar to
areas farther southwest over the south-central Plains, a seasonably
moist will undergo some heating in areas void of thicker cloud cover
and aid in 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing over WI according to forecast
soundings. Weak 0-6 km shear (i.e., < 20 kt) should temper updraft organization and limit storm intensity. Nonetheless, a couple of
strong gusts or small hail may occur with the more vigorous storms
this afternoon.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210102
SWODY1
SPC AC 210100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible
across parts of the south-central Plains this evening.

...South-central Plains...
A few strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening from
the TX Panhandle into western/northern OK. Moderate buoyancy remains
in place across areas that have not been convectively overturned,
while deep-layer shear is marginally sufficient for briefly
organized storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail. Enhanced
SRH is still in place near a remnant outflow across northeast OK (as
noted on the KINX VWP), and there still a window of opportunity for
a supercell or two within this regime, which could pose a threat of
a brief tornado and large hail.

Some clustering is possible later this evening across the eastern TX
Panhandle into western OK, and also across parts of the Ozarks,
associated with separate branches of a modest nocturnal low-level
jet. Some severe threat could persist into late evening, before
convection becomes increasingly elevated overnight.

...Mid MS Valley into lower MI...
A storm cluster across western lower MI has recently produced strong
gusts, with other isolated strong storms noted from western IN into
IL. Isolated strong storms may persist into late evening across this
region within a modestly unstable environment, though a gradual
weakening trend is expected with time.

...Parts of KS overnight...
Guidance generally suggests that convection will increase overnight
and spread eastward from northwest into central KS. MUCAPE
near/above 1000 J/kg could support a few strong storms, but
generally weak effective shear and modest midlevel lapse rates are
expected to limit the organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210602
SWODY1
SPC AC 210600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO FROM NORTHEAST NE/SOUTHEAST SD INTO
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today across parts
of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, and southern Great Lakes. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are also possible from the mid Missouri Valley into
southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the
central/eastern CONUS later today, with several embedded vorticity
maxima expected to move across parts of the Great Plains into the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Modest midlevel flow atop a sufficiently
moist and unstable environment will support some potential for
strong to locally severe storms across a relatively large area.
Localized corridors of somewhat greater severe threat may evolve
where deep-layer shear is enhanced by one of the embedded midlevel
shortwaves, as well as where midlevel flow veers to
west-northwesterly across parts of the mid MO Valley and southern
Plains.

...Parts of TX into southern OK...
Extensive overnight convection is expected to leave a residual
outflow boundary that will be located somewhere in the vicinity of
north TX/southern OK by afternoon. While some midlevel warming is
expected across the southern Plains through the day, relatively
strong heating, and the potential influence of an MCV that may
evolve from overnight convection, will support isolated to widely
scattered storm development this afternoon/evening near the outflow
boundary, and potentially southward along a diffuse dryline into northwest/west-central TX.

Moderate buoyancy and 35-50 kt of effective shear within the
northwesterly flow regime across parts of north TX into southern OK
will conditionally support splitting supercells capable of producing
hail and localized severe gusts. There is some uncertainty regarding
the placement of the boundary by afternoon and the magnitude of any
MCV-related enhancement to deep-layer shear and storm coverage, but
greater probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in
development of multiple supercells and/or an organized cluster
within this regime.

...Northeast NE/southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA...
A compact mid/upper-level low will move southeastward from eastern
ND into MN later today. This low and the attendant shortwave trough
will aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms
by late afternoon or early evening from southwest MN into adjacent
southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest IA, in the vicinity of a
weak surface boundary. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate
buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will support strong
multicells and perhaps a couple splitting supercells. Large hail is
expected to the primary hazard, though localized strong gusts will
also be possible with the strongest storms.

...Eastern KS into MO...
A cluster of elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start
of the period across central/eastern KS. This cluster and possibly
an attendant MCV may encounter an environment across parts of MO
that is recovering from a separate area of overnight convection near
the Ozarks. While background midlevel flow will only support
effective shear of 20-25 kt, any MCV-related enhancement to the flow
would result in sufficient deep-layer shear for somewhat more
organized storms. If sufficient destabilization can occur, then a
few modestly organized cells or clusters may evolve this afternoon
and evening, accompanied by a threat for localized damaging wind and
perhaps some hail.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...
Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread parts of the
southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley later today, in advance of the
midlevel shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the region,
within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Midlevel
lapse rates and deep-layer shear are expected to remain relatively
weak, but steepening low-level lapse rates will result in potential
for cells/clusters capable of locally damaging wind this afternoon
into the early evening. There is also some potential for a storm
cluster or loosely organized MCS to develop across the lower MO/mid
MS Valley and move toward parts of the southern Great Lakes later
tonight.

..Dean/Halbert.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211246
SWODY1
SPC AC 211245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon
across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
across a broad portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and also from the
mid Missouri Valley into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of western/central OK and western north TX in association with a weak
MCV and modest low-level warm/moist advection. Convectively
reinforced outflow from this morning activity should be draped
along/near the Red River this afternoon, with a rich low-level
moisture present to its south. Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow
should gradually strengthen through the day across north TX/southern
OK as a weak mid-level perturbation moves southeastward from the southern/central High Plains. A favorable combination of moderate
instability aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and
daytime heating, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, will
likely prove favorable for thunderstorm organization. Most guidance
suggests multiple thunderstorms will develop and become
supercellular this afternoon across parts of north TX and southern
OK. Scattered severe hail should be the main threat with this
convection as it spreads southeastward through the early evening.
Strengthening MLCIN with time this evening should result in a
weakening trend as this activity approaches the DFW metroplex, but
isolated large hail and gusty winds will remain possible until
convection dissipates. Given increased confidence in supercells
developing, have added a focused Slight Risk for large hail with
this update.

Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward today across the central Plains into the Ozarks and
mid MS Valley. One notable MCV with ongoing convection is also noted
this morning across central KS. Filtered diurnal heating should aid
in the development of weak to locally moderate instability this
afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across
northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm
sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest
enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated
hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some
potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early
evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow
will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on
the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper
Midwest. Recent visible satellite imagery across these regions show
generally widespread cloudiness, which may hinder diurnal
destabilization to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also
expected to remain rather poor (reference ILX/ILN/DTX observed 12Z
soundings). Even with these thermodynamic limitations, it still
appears possible that isolated damaging winds could occur with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and spread generally east-northeastward. This activity should quickly weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa...
A compact mid/upper-level low will move southeastward from eastern
ND into MN today. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in
the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early
evening from southwest MN into adjacent southeast SD, northeast NE,
and northwest IA, in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Cool
temperatures aloft, weak to moderate instability, and effective bulk
shear around 25-35 kt should support multicells and perhaps a couple
splitting supercells. Hail is expected to the primary severe hazard
with any thunderstorms that can be sustained, but confidence in this
occurring before this evening is low.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211622
SWODY1
SPC AC 211621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop
this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly
east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse
moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central
High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover
persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in
association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis
places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing
elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the
boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to
moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence
of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow
boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms
developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley.
Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will
favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large
hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this
activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely
diminishes after sunset.

Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded
perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the
Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO
ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate
instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be
draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent
overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment,
with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across
MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger
cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS
River by early evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow
will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on
the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper
Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to
isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this
afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates
will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging
gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This
activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of
heating.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa...
A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward
across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and
attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to
widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into
northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast
soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early
evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or
transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells
and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this
activity weakens by late evening.

..Smith/Wendt.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 212000
SWODY1
SPC AC 211959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop
this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
modifications outlined below.

...Ozarks...
5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern
AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of
developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR,
which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on
latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and
deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for
periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe
winds.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa...
Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern
SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that
shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far
southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance
suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will
reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening.

...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas...
Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across
the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over
the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this
morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than
anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of
the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly
which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm
development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution.
However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries
combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK
should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by
mid-evening.

..Moore.. 09/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly
east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse
moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central
High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover
persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in
association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis
places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing
elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the
boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to
moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence
of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow
boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms
developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley.
Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will
favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large
hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this
activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely
diminishes after sunset.

Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded
perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the
Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO
ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate
instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be
draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent
overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment,
with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across
MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger
cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS
River by early evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow
will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on
the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper
Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to
isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this
afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates
will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging
gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This
activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of
heating.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa...
A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward
across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and
attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to
widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into
northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast
soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early
evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or
transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells
and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this
activity weakens by late evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220101
SWODY1
SPC AC 220059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible with storms
this evening across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks.
Other strong to locally severe storms may continue through the
evening from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota and
northern Iowa.

...North Texas into the Ozarks...
Storms have generally diminished in coverage and intensity this
evening across north Texas, due to increasing MLCINH and warming
midlevel temperatures (as noted in regional 00Z soundings), though a
favorably veering wind profile and steep lapse rates below 500 mb
will continue to support potential for an isolated supercell or two
and an attendant threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, for as
long as vigorous convection persists this evening.

Farther northeast, a modest southwesterly low-level jet may help to
maintain storms into late tonight from eastern OK into northwest AR.
Moderate MUCAPE and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear could
support localized strong/damaging gusts and marginal hail with the
strongest storms.

...Southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA...
Isolated cells have produced sporadic severe hail across parts of
southern MN late this afternoon into the early evening, to the south
of a mid/upper-level cyclone over central MN. Some redevelopment
remains possible this evening, within a modest low-level warm
advection regime. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate
buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will continue to support
potential for occasionally organized cells with an isolated hail
threat. Some clustering is possible late tonight, which could be
accompanied by locally gusty winds, but increasing low-level
stability may temper the damaging-wind threat.

..Dean.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220602
SWODY1
SPC AC 220600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE
INTO WESTERN IA/NORTHWEST MO...AND FROM WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND THE EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight
across portions of the central/southern Plains and the lower to mid
Missouri Valley. Strong storms with locally damaging gusts will also
be possible from parts of the Tennessee Valley into the lower Great
Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A rather complex upper-level pattern will cover the CONUS later
today. A compact mid/upper-level low will move across the Upper
Great Lakes region, while farther south, a low-amplitude shortwave
trough (and possible embedded MCV) will move from the mid MS Valley
into the OH Valley. Farther west, a shortwave trough initially over
the interior Northwest will dig southeastward toward the central
Rockies. At the surface, multiple weak surface lows may develop
along a lee trough across parts of the central/southern High Plains.
A cold front will move southward across the Upper Midwest and
northern/central Plains.

...Central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Steepening midlevel lapse rates atop seasonably rich low-level
moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization this
afternoon across a large area from the central/southern Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest. Details regarding the location and
coverage of diurnal storm development remain uncertain. At least
isolated storms may develop near the southward-moving front from
northeast NE into the Upper Midwest, and also potentially farther
west and south near a surface trough and in the vicinity of any
surface lows.

Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest into the early evening,
but sufficient to support 25-40 kt of effective shear (with the
shear magnitude greater where winds may become locally backed).
Initial development could evolve into strong multicells and perhaps
a few supercells, with an attendant threat of large hail, localized
severe gusts, and possibly a brief tornado. Some clustering will be
possible with time, especially from western KS into northern OK,
where an increasing low-level jet and the influence of the digging
shortwave trough across the central Rockies could foster nocturnal
MCS development. Any organized upscale growth would result in an
increasing severe-wind threat, along with some brief-tornado
potential as low-level SRH increases with time.

While uncertainty remains, guidance still generally depicts relative
maxima in storm coverage across eastern NE/western IA from late
afternoon into the evening, and from southwest KS into northern OK
during the evening and overnight. As a result, only minor
modifications have been made to the Slight Risk areas.

...TN Valley into the lower Great Lakes...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected later today across
parts of the TN/OH Valleys, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
across a moist and uncapped environment. Guidance generally suggests
an increase in low/midlevel southwesterly flow compared to
yesterday, though deep-layer shear will remain modest and midlevel
lapse rates are forecast to again be weak. One or more clusters may
evolve and pose a threat for at least isolated damaging wind. If any
pockets of stronger heating/destabilization can evolve, and/or
MCV-related enhancement to the flow is stronger than currently
forecast, then a Slight Risk upgrade may eventually be needed for
parts of this region.

...Eastern AZ into NM...
High-based convection is forecast to develop across eastern AZ and
move across NM during the late afternoon and evening, within a
strengthening unidirectional westerly flow regime. Buoyancy is
expected to remain limited, but CAM guidance suggests potential for
a relatively large outflow to develop and spread across NM,
accompanied by strong to locally severe gusts. If confidence
increases regarding maintenance of some organized convection
associated with this outflow, then wind probabilities may eventually
be needed.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221242
SWODY1
SPC AC 221240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid
Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging
winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift
slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper
ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these
two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly
mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective
development today and tonight across portions of the
southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest,
and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes.

...Southern/Central Plains...
With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and
weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon,
robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains
will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level
jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the
east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High
Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints
forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass
will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability
extending from western KS southeastward into OK.

It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly
low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with
most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation
occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level
winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer
shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current
expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat,
with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered
severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection
grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS.
This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of
western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially
supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the
Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed
based on latest guidance trends.

...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into
western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an
isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward
across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the
development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the
Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft
associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will
tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector.
Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern
IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat
for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds
with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form
late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity.
Greater instability should be present across this region compared to
locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to
support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this
activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this
evening as clustering occurs.

...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the
Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward
today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with
20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized
multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually
strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across
a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are
expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered
daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to
scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a
greater concentration of strong convection across parts of
central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early
evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A
Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased
confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential.

...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico...
Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from
the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region
is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper
trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great
Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak
perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid
initial convective development this afternoon across the higher
terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread
eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain
weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse
rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear
should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat
for strong to severe wind gusts.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221627
SWODY1
SPC AC 221625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid
Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and
severe/damaging winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level
low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of
a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers
and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving
east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into
the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over
the West.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the
central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by
60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into
NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change
will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and
perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a
lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough,
will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains
by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet
this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak
lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor
scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High
Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE.
Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion
of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells.
Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this
evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can
develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern
OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard
later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the
OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode.

...IA-WI...
Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in
northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and
modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a
threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly
winds with height through mid/upper levels.

...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the
Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward
today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with
20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized
multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually
strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across
a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may
occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters.

...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico...
Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from
the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this
region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an
upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the
Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A
weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may
aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher
terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread
eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain
weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse
rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear
should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat
for severe wind gusts.

..Smith/Wendt.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221948
SWODY1
SPC AC 221946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid
Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and
severe/damaging winds should be the main threats.

...20z Update...
A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment
with recent trends.

The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across
portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air
mass leaving more stable conditions.

Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5%
tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be
influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with
low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and
unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear,
this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded
circulations and potential for a tornado or two.

See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 09/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level
low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of
a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers
and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving
east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into
the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over
the West.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the
central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by
60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into
NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change
will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and
perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a
lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough,
will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains
by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet
this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak
lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor
scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High
Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE.
Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion
of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells.
Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this
evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can
develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern
OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard
later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the
OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode.

...IA-WI...
Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in
northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and
modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a
threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly
winds with height through mid/upper levels.

...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the
Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward
today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with
20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized
multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually
strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across
a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may
occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters.

...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico...
Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from
the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this
region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an
upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the
Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A
weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may
aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher
terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread
eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain
weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse
rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear
should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat
for severe wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230053
SWODY1
SPC AC 230051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across
portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley,
and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds
should be the main threats.

...Southern and central Plains...
Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level
vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into
the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is
forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of
30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow
should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into
parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The
intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated
moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop
within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and
supercells.

Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely
elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and
the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS
over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the
primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large
low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the
KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow.

...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest...
Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen
this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid
Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along
and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and
intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave
perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level
laps rates and some veering with height could support organized
multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and
damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or
more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the
central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are
ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight.
Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced
southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the
loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to
gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist
boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this
evening with the stronger clusters.

..Lyons.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230600
SWODY1
SPC AC 230559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid
Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all
severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the
Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are
possible over the Mid Atlantic.

...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas...
A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern
Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features
embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over
the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight.
Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide
in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across
the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will
likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40
kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will
be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible
through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal
destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless,
outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an
east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the
developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK.

As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is
expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F
surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support
rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface
trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete
supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some
hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from
eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and
lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally
significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple
point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into
western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and
the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally
stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be
needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and
destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear.

Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early
overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk
for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may
persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead
of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm
development which may limit instability.

...Mid Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians
toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may
promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally
damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours.

...Central TX...
As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will
continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX
overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will
pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft.
Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms
along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential
overnight.

..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231238
SWODY1
SPC AC 231236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from
parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South. The greatest severe
risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should exist from
parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and vicinity.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South...
Convection ongoing across eastern KS, northeast OK, and western MO
this morning is largely being aided by ascent with a 30-40 kt
southwesterly low-level jet over the southern Plains. This activity
has generally remained sub-severe over the past few hours, with
substantial MLCIN present. Recent surface analysis shows a weak low
(around 1006 mb) over northwest OK. This low should develop slowly
eastward through the day, while a trailing cold front continues
slowly southeastward across the central/southern High Plains.
Westerly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong today,
but it should gradually strengthen this afternoon as a weak
perturbation translates eastward from the central/southern Plains
into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley by this evening. A rather moist
airmass, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will be
present along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary that
should be draped across northern OK into southern MO/northern AR
this afternoon. Daytime heating and modestly steepened low/mid-level
lapse rates (reference 12Z observed OUN sounding) will easily foster
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a pre-frontal corridor across eastern OK
and northwest AR, with locally stronger instability possible.

It appears increasingly likely that robust thunderstorms, including
the potential for multiple supercells, will develop by 18-22Z as
convective temperatures are reached. While not overly strong,
gradual veering and strengthening of the wind field through low/mid
levels should support sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for
organized updrafts. Initial convection should pose a threat for
severe hail, before quick upscale growth into one or more clusters
occurs with associated threat for scattered damaging winds
continuing into parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South through at least
early evening. There may be a focused/mesoscale area of greater
tornado potential this afternoon/early evening along/south of the
surface boundary in east-central/northeast OK into northwest AR,
where effective SRH should become locally enhanced amid a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet and slightly backed surface winds. Even
so, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding convective
mode (how long supercells can remain at least semi-discrete), and
some signal for veered/southwesterly low-level winds with time and
southward extent that could reduce low-level SRH. Have therefore
held off on introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area with this
update. But, trends will continue to be monitored.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK
into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south
of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely
scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores
given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS,
scattered thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon within a
moist/weakly unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians
toward the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Around 20-25 kt of
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk
of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening
with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231630
SWODY1
SPC AC 231629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon
into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a
few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being
strong.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South...
Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level
trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of
particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving
east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of
slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late
this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark
Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary.
This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east
from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River.
Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to
become better defined over north-central OK and this low will
develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early
evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very
moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK
with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s
deg F, respectively.

Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western
and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest
model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This
environmental setup will support robust supercell development,
especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes,
one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the
mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be
possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage
may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms
will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for
severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs
with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK
into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south
of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely
scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores
given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS,
scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon
within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk
of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening.

..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 232002
SWODY1
SPC AC 232000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the
evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few
tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being
strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced
Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent
wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced
baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR,
temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s
dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor
scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated
basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing
clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe
risk here, reference MCD #2123.

Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into
southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal
heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has
contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with
strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely
organized storms capable of locally damaging winds.

..Weinman.. 09/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South...
Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level
trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of
particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving
east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of
slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late
this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark
Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary.
This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east
from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River.
Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to
become better defined over north-central OK and this low will
develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early
evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very
moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK
with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s
deg F, respectively.

Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western
and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest
model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This
environmental setup will support robust supercell development,
especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes,
one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the
mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be
possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage
may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms
will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for
severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs
with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK
into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south
of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely
scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores
given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS,
scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon
within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk
of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240053
SWODY1
SPC AC 240052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across
much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas.
Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat
does persist.

...01z Update...

A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a
progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor
imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to
encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy
currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings
support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV,
and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display
modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm
mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and
clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT
risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to
account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments,
and a few supercells.

..Darrow.. 09/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240533
SWODY1
SPC AC 240531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from
the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas.

...TN Valley to South TX...

Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley,
southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper
troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response
to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak
surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central
TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the
overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream
side of the upper trough.

Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in
destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak
surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across
portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the
strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower
90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL
risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates
across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy
within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale
forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization,
modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do
not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging
winds with the most robust updrafts.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241231
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts
today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas...
A positively tilted mid-level trough/low extending from the Great
Lakes to southern Plains will translate slowly eastward today while
gradually amplifying. At the surface, a cold front will continue
tracking south-southeastward across the southern Plains and
lower/mid MS Valley through the period, with a weak low forecast to
gradually develop towards the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes by
late tonight. Ongoing convection across north-central TX and the
southern AR vicinity has remained mostly sub-severe early this
morning, with the TX thunderstorms post-frontal and likely somewhat
elevated. The activity across southern AR is being aided by a modest southwesterly low-level jet, and ascent preceding a mid-level
shortwave trough with attendant 40-50 kt westerly jet over OK.

Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur
along/south of the front through this afternoon, with filtered
daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass aiding in the
development of weak to moderate instability. Lapse rates aloft are
forecast to remain generally poor, which may tend to limit updraft
strength to some extent. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and related
deep-layer shear associated with the shortwave trough should aid in
updraft organization, with multicell clusters anticipated to develop
and spread eastward across much of the lower MS Valley and
Mid-South/TN Valley this afternoon and evening.

Areas along/north of the ongoing convection in southern AR may
struggle to destabilize, with only weak instability forecast by most
guidance. Even so, the stronger mid-level flow/shear attendant to
the shortwave trough may foster occasional damaging winds if
stronger convection can be sustained. Locations south/east of the
thunderstorms this morning will likely realize greater instability
as diurnal heating occurs, but will remain mostly displaced from the
stronger mid-level flow. This suggests convection will probably tend
to be less organized with southward extent, especially into
coastal/south TX. But, isolated severe/damaging winds may still
occur as low-level lapse rates steepen though the day.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241631
SWODY1
SPC AC 241629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts
today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill
Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from
northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented
cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak
low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front
will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of
the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy.
This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm
character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced
south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout
the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement
should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south
and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely
multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and
keep the overall severe potential isolated.

There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear
from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit
more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more
storm organization and the development of more coherent linear
structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates
will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is
forecast to be modest.

Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to
destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by
most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is
anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently
over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more
neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the
front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest
buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level
flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional
updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger
convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode
should mitigate the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241959
SWODY1
SPC AC 241958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas.

...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys...
Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of
southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN
Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over
northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR.

Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from
south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into
the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south
into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer
shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support
stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon.

Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted
on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger
high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain
marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells
may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong
gusts.

To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late
this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the
instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread
south/east along with the boundary.

..Jewell.. 09/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill
Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from
northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented
cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak
low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front
will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of
the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy.
This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm
character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced
south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout
the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement
should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south
and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely
multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and
keep the overall severe potential isolated.

There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear
from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit
more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more
storm organization and the development of more coherent linear
structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates
will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is
forecast to be modest.

Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to
destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by
most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is
anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently
over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more
neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the
front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest
buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level
flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional
updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger
convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode
should mitigate the overall severe potential.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250050
SWODY1
SPC AC 250049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible across portions of
central Alabama northeast into northern Georgia.

... Overview ...

Overall thunderstorm intensity -- and correspondingly the potential
for damaging thunderstorm winds -- continues to wane this evening
across the US as low-level temperatures cool and low-level lapse
rates weaken with the loss of diurnal heating. An exception to this
will be across portions of central Alabama into northern Georgia
where thunderstorm updrafts have been a bit more robust, and
consequently slower to weaken, than elsewhere. Here, the potential
for a few gusty wind reports may persist another couple of hours.

..Marsh.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250600
SWODY1
SPC AC 250558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New
England Today. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado will
be possible with the strongest storms. Additional strong storms are
expected across the Southwest, posing a risk for marginally severe
hail and wind.

... Synopsis ...

A closed midlevel low over the Great Lakes will continue to
weaken/open into a positively-tilted trough across the eastern US.
As this occurs, a broad/diffuse midlevel jet on the downstream side
of the trough will move east toward the I95 corridor. Farther west,
a seasonably strong midlevel low will dig southeast from central
California into southern California/western Arizona, with cooler
midlevel temperatures and increasing midlevel flow overspreading
portions of the Southwest.

At the surface, a low across Kentucky at the start of the forecast
period will quickly lift northeast into southern New England by
early Friday morning. As this occurs, a warm front will quickly lift
north through the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Widespread
clouds and precipitation will likely accompany the warm front as it
lifts north.

... Mid-Atlantic northeast into Southern New England ...

Widespread cloud cover is expected across much of the area in the
wake of morning precipitation limiting daytime heating resulting in
poor low-level lapse rates. Additionally, saturated, nearly
moist-adiabatic midlevel profiles will limit buoyancy generation.
That said, the presence of an approaching trough, modest midlevel
flow, and an eastward moving surface cold front should support
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon.
Precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches, supported by the
nearly saturated moist-adiabatic midlevel profiles, should yield
some wind damage threat as wet downbursts/microbursts will be
possible. However, the poor thermodynamic environment described
previously should limit a more widespread severe event as intense
updrafts may struggle to develop. This scenario appears to be
supported by the 00Z HREF members which struggle to produce much in
the way of updraft helicity and are unable to produce any updrafts
in excess of the 99.85 percentile.

Forecast kinematic profiles support some potential for a tornado or
two as any residual boundary from the early morning precipitation
would provide a local low-level vorticity reservoir. Additionally,
any thunderstorm that could interact with the lifting warm front
would also pose at least some tornado threat.

If the expectation of poor thermodynamics changes, and the degree of instability increases, the corresponding severe threat would
categorically increase as well. This will be monitored in subsequent
forecasts.

... Central Georgia northeast into the Mid-Atlantic ...

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon along the slowly advancing surface front. The
thermodynamic environment here is slightly better than farther
north, however, the kinematic environment is slightly worse. That
said, a few strong, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may be possible
with the strongest storms.

... Southwest US ...

As cooler midlevel temperatures associated with the midlevel low
overspread Arizona, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
higher terrain stretching from southeast Arizona northwest into far
southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Steep low-to-mid-level lapse
rates atop surface dewpoints in excess of 50F will yield
most-unstable CAPE values between 750-1500 J/kg. The combination of instability, lapse-rates, and seasonably low freezing level
temperatures will yield the potential for marginally severe hail and
wind gusts with the strongest storms.

..Marsh/Halbert.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251227
SWODY1
SPC AC 251226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southern
New England today. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
two will be possible with some of this convection. Additional
thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind may
occur across parts of the Southwest.

...Southeast to Southern New York/New England...
A positively tilted upper trough extending from the Great Lakes
across the mid/lower MS Valley and southern Plains will make slow
progress eastward today towards the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts. At the
surface, a cold front will make similar eastward development, with a
moist airmass in place ahead of it. Rather poor lapse rates aloft
and cloud cover/ongoing precipitation will delay/hinder diurnal
destabilization across much of the warm sector today. A weakly
unstable airmass is still anticipated along/ahead of the front from
the Mid-Atlantic northward into southern New England. Enhanced
southwesterly low/mid-level flow may support occasional damaging
winds with thunderstorm clusters that can develop. Sufficient
low-level shear may also be in place to support some risk for a
tornado or two, mainly from parts of northern VA into southern
NY/New England. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker with
southward extent from the Carolinas into GA, but greater instability
should be present owing to stronger diurnal heating. Isolated strong
to damaging winds may occur with convection that can develop
along/ahead of the front across these areas as well.

...Southwest...
A closed mid/upper-level low over central CA this morning will move
slowly east-southeastward through the period. Mid-level
west-southwesterly flow ahead of this feature should gradually
increase through the day, with large-scale ascent overspreading
parts of the Southwest by early afternoon. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop initially over the higher
terrain of AZ, and subsequently develop slowly northward through the
evening. Weak to locally moderate instability coupled with modest
deep-layer shear may support an isolated hail/wind threat with the
more robust convection that develops, especially where low-level
lapse rates can become steepened through diurnal heating/mixing of
the boundary layer.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251620
SWODY1
SPC AC 251619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GA
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southern
New England today. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
two will be possible with some of this convection. Additional
thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind may
occur across parts of the Southwest.

...Southeast States into Southern New York/New England...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a large positively tilted upper
trough that extends from the southern Plains through the Upper Great
Lakes. Recent surface analysis places a large area of lower pressure
from the north-central Gulf into eastern Ontario/southern Quebec,
just ahead of the upper troughing. Two surface lows were analyzed at
14Z, one over western TN and another over central PA, with modest
troughing extending between these two lows. A warm front also
extends east-northeastward from the central PA across southern New
England. This warm front is demarcated well by the 70 deg F
isotherm.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated from the
Southeast into southern New England as the both the surface
troughing and parent upper trough gradually progress eastward. A
belt of stronger mid-level flow currently exists throughout the
eastern periphery of the upper trough, extending roughly from
central MS into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Northern portion of this
stronger mid-level flow will spread gradually eastward/northeastward
throughout the day into more of New England while the southern
portion over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic weakens.

Rather poor lapse rates aloft and cloud cover/ongoing precipitation
will delay/hinder diurnal destabilization across much of the warm
sector today. A weakly unstable airmass is still anticipated
along/ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic northward into
southern New England, supporting continued thunderstorm development
through the afternoon/early evening. Given the largely line-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, a predominantly linear storm
mode is anticipated. Weak buoyancy coupled with the strengthening
mid-level flow could support a risk for damaging gusts within any
thunderstorm clusters that develop.

Forecast wind profiles do show sufficient low-level shear for a
tornado risk with any more persistent, cellular storms from eastern
PA into southern NY. However, limited destabilization due to
abundant cloud cover and poor lapse rates suggests shallow and
transient warm sector updrafts, with linear development on the front
more probable.

...Southwest...
The well-defined cyclone currently moving across central CA is
forecast to continue southeastward, eventually interacting with the
moisture in place from eastern southern CA and the Lower CO Valley
into western/southern AZ. A modest increase in mid-level
west-southwesterly flow should occur ahead of this cyclone through
the day, in tandem with increasing large-scale ascent overspreading
parts of the Southwest. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to develop initially over the higher terrain of AZ, and
subsequently develop slowly northward through the evening. Modest
buoyancy and shear may support an isolated hail/wind threat with any
more persistent convection that develops, especially where low-level
lapse rates can become steepened through diurnal heating/mixing of
the boundary layer.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251956
SWODY1
SPC AC 251955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southern
New England today. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
two will be possible with some of this convection. Additional
thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind may
occur across parts of the Southwest.

...20z Update...
No major changes will be made to the valid outlook. Scattered,
occasionally severe, storms are likely ahead of the cold front into
early this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southern New
England. Very moist surface conditions (low 70s F surface dewpoints)
and intermittent warming amidst cloud cover is supporting weak
instability. A low-topped band of showers and storms along the cold
front in eastern PA and western NY should continue eastward into
this evening. A few stronger updrafts with transient rotation remain
possible. Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible.
See the previous discussion and MCD#2128 for additional information.


...Southwest...
A few severe storms are also possible over parts of the Southwest
through this evening. Initially tied to the higher terrain, storm
coverage should gradually increase from southern AZ into NV and
Southwest UT this afternoon. Modest buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg)
and 20-30 kt of vertical shear beneath the upper low should support
a few more persistent storms with an isolated hail/wind threat. A
few stronger storms may linger this evening as modest mid-level
destabilization continues beneath the upper low. See MCD#2129 for
updated sort-term forecast information.

..Lyons.. 09/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025/

...Southeast States into Southern New York/New England...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a large positively tilted upper
trough that extends from the southern Plains through the Upper Great
Lakes. Recent surface analysis places a large area of lower pressure
from the north-central Gulf into eastern Ontario/southern Quebec,
just ahead of the upper troughing. Two surface lows were analyzed at
14Z, one over western TN and another over central PA, with modest
troughing extending between these two lows. A warm front also
extends east-northeastward from the central PA across southern New
England. This warm front is demarcated well by the 70 deg F
isotherm.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated from the
Southeast into southern New England as the both the surface
troughing and parent upper trough gradually progress eastward. A
belt of stronger mid-level flow currently exists throughout the
eastern periphery of the upper trough, extending roughly from
central MS into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Northern portion of this
stronger mid-level flow will spread gradually eastward/northeastward
throughout the day into more of New England while the southern
portion over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic weakens.

Rather poor lapse rates aloft and cloud cover/ongoing precipitation
will delay/hinder diurnal destabilization across much of the warm
sector today. A weakly unstable airmass is still anticipated
along/ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic northward into
southern New England, supporting continued thunderstorm development
through the afternoon/early evening. Given the largely line-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, a predominantly linear storm
mode is anticipated. Weak buoyancy coupled with the strengthening
mid-level flow could support a risk for damaging gusts within any
thunderstorm clusters that develop.

Forecast wind profiles do show sufficient low-level shear for a
tornado risk with any more persistent, cellular storms from eastern
PA into southern NY. However, limited destabilization due to
abundant cloud cover and poor lapse rates suggests shallow and
transient warm sector updrafts, with linear development on the front
more probable.

...Southwest...
The well-defined cyclone currently moving across central CA is
forecast to continue southeastward, eventually interacting with the
moisture in place from eastern southern CA and the Lower CO Valley
into western/southern AZ. A modest increase in mid-level
west-southwesterly flow should occur ahead of this cyclone through
the day, in tandem with increasing large-scale ascent overspreading
parts of the Southwest. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to develop initially over the higher terrain of AZ, and
subsequently develop slowly northward through the evening. Modest
buoyancy and shear may support an isolated hail/wind threat with any
more persistent convection that develops, especially where low-level
lapse rates can become steepened through diurnal heating/mixing of
the boundary layer.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260050
SWODY1
SPC AC 260049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of
the eastern U.S., and in the Desert Southwest. A marginally severe
wind gust and/or hail will be possible this evening in parts of
Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. A locally strong wind gust
will also be possible in parts of southern New England.

...Arizona/Far Southwest New Mexico...
At mid-levels early this evening, the latest water vapor imagery
shows a low over central California, with a ridge located over
eastern Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the ridge
from the Mogollon Rim southwestward into far southwest New Mexico.
This convection is located along the eastern edge of a north-northwest-to-south-southeast corridor of moderate instability,
where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This value
of instability is supported by the 00Z Tucson sounding which also
has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots and a 0-3 km lapse rate of 8.5 C/km.
This could be enough for a marginally severe wind gust with cells
that persist along and near the instability axis this evening. Hail
will also be possible.

Elsewhere, a strong wind gust will be possible with a line of storms
in southwest New England. Any severe potential there is expected to
decrease over the next hour as instability continues to weaken.

..Broyles.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260552
SWODY1
SPC AC 260550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and marginally severe gusts are
possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico.

...Southern and Central Arizona/Far Southwest New Mexico...
A mid-level low will move southeastward across southern California
today. Ahead of the low, a moist airmass will be in place across
much of Arizona and southwest New Mexico. As surface temperatures
warm across this airmass, an axis of moderate instability will
develop by afternoon across southeast and central Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms will likely form during the mid to late afternoon from
this axis of instability into the higher terrain of the Mogollon
Rim. By late afternoon, forecast soundings along this
south-southeast to north-northwest corridor have 0-3 km lapse rates
in the 7.5 to 8.5 range with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range
and 500 mb temperatures near -10C. This should support a threat for
hail and marginally severe wind gusts with semi-organized cells near
the instability axis. The threat is expected to persist from late
afternoon into the early to mid evening.

..Broyles.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261216
SWODY1
SPC AC 261215

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and marginally severe gusts are
possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico.

...AZ...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern CA,
tracking southeastward toward southern AZ. Increasing low-level
winds and large-scale lift associated with this system will aid
widespread thunderstorms today from southeast into east-central AZ.
Along the western periphery of this convection, a rather moist and
unstable air mass will be present. Afternoon MLCAPE values over
2500 J/kg and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will promote
some risk of hail in the stronger cells. Steep low-level lapse
rates will also develop immediately west of the primary thunderstorm
area, which could result in gusty/damaging winds. Most model
guidance suggests that widespread storms will persist through much
of the day, with steering flow from the southwest limiting the
amount of westward development into the lower deserts. Therefore
have maintained the ongoing MRGL risk, and will continue to
re-evaluate for a possible upgrade through the day.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261622
SWODY1
SPC AC 261621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NM...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and strong to marginally severe gusts
are possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into
far southwestern New Mexico.

...Southwest...
A well-defined upper low continues to progress slowly eastward
across southern CA. Given its displacement well south of the primary
westerlies along the US/Canada border, only limited eastward
progression of this low is anticipated, with some potential it
stalls in over the Lower CO River Valley vicinity. Ample moisture
remains in place ahead of this upper low, and the resulting
combination of persistent large-scale ascent associated with the low
and this moisture will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
across much of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. Buoyancy will
be limited throughout much of this region, tempering the overall
updraft strength and storm severity.

The only exception is from central into southeast AZ and far
southwest NM where greater low-level moisture exists south of a warm
front that extends northwestward across the region to a surface low
over the Lower CO Valley. Additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated in this vicinity of this front this afternoon, where the
greater low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) will contribute
to afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Moderate low to
mid-level southwesterlies will help increase deep-layer shear
values, particularly along the warm front where surface
southeasterlies are possible. These environmental conditions support
the potential for rotating storms capable of producing large hail.
Steep low-level lapse rates throughout the warm sector suggest the
potential for damaging gusts exists as well. A low-probability
tornado threat may materialize along the warm front, with the
magnitude of the threat dependent on the strength of the surface southeasterlies.

...Elsewhere...
Broad upper troughing extending from the Northeast through the Lower
MS Valley will contribute to scattered thunderstorms across much of
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Limited buoyancy should temper the
overall storm intensity, although a strong storm or two is possible
within the moist environment over the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms
are also possible across northern MN as a cold front moves through
the region overnight.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261934
SWODY1
SPC AC 261933

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and outflow gusts of
60-70 mph will be possible through this evening from central into
southeast Arizona.

...Central/southeast AZ through this evening...
A closed mid-upper low now over southeast CA will move little
through Saturday morning, and the left-exit region of an embedded
jet core will focus over central/southeast AZ through this evening.
Surface heating in cloud breaks is boosting temperatures into the
mid 80s to lower 90s where dewpoints are in the low-mid 60s, which
is contributing to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg).
New storms will continue to develop through the afternoon along the
southern and western flanks of the ongoing convection from the
Mogollon Rim into southeast AZ. Sufficiently long
hodographs/deep-layer shear and the moderate buoyancy will support a
mix of clusters and supercells capable of producing occasional large
hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and outflow gusts of 60-70 mph.
Favorable storm interactions could produce a brief tornado, though
this threat will remain highly localized.

...Southeast Atlantic coast this afternoon...
Thunderstorm development is underway from north FL across southeast
GA into the Carolinas, downstream from a weak midlevel trough over
TN/AL. A westerly component to the near-surface winds suggests the
sea breeze will remain close to the coast through the afternoon and
will serve to focus additional thunderstorm development. However,
regional 18z soundings revealed poor midlevel lapse rates and (at
best) modest midlevel shear, which suggest that the threat for wind
damage remains too low to introduce severe wind probabilities.

..Thompson.. 09/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025/

...Southwest...
A well-defined upper low continues to progress slowly eastward
across southern CA. Given its displacement well south of the primary
westerlies along the US/Canada border, only limited eastward
progression of this low is anticipated, with some potential it
stalls in over the Lower CO River Valley vicinity. Ample moisture
remains in place ahead of this upper low, and the resulting
combination of persistent large-scale ascent associated with the low
and this moisture will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
across much of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. Buoyancy will
be limited throughout much of this region, tempering the overall
updraft strength and storm severity.

The only exception is from central into southeast AZ and far
southwest NM where greater low-level moisture exists south of a warm
front that extends northwestward across the region to a surface low
over the Lower CO Valley. Additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated in this vicinity of this front this afternoon, where the
greater low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) will contribute
to afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Moderate low to
mid-level southwesterlies will help increase deep-layer shear
values, particularly along the warm front where surface
southeasterlies are possible. These environmental conditions support
the potential for rotating storms capable of producing large hail.
Steep low-level lapse rates throughout the warm sector suggest the
potential for damaging gusts exists as well. A low-probability
tornado threat may materialize along the warm front, with the
magnitude of the threat dependent on the strength of the surface southeasterlies.

...Elsewhere...
Broad upper troughing extending from the Northeast through the Lower
MS Valley will contribute to scattered thunderstorms across much of
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Limited buoyancy should temper the
overall storm intensity, although a strong storm or two is possible
within the moist environment over the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms
are also possible across northern MN as a cold front moves through
the region overnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270041
SWODY1
SPC AC 270039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thundertorms capable of hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible for another hour or two this evening across parts of
central and southeast Arizona.

...Central and Southeast Arizona...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over far
southeast California. A dry slot is evident over southwest Arizona,
with a plume of mid-level moisture extending over the remainder of
the state. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume
from near the mid-level low southeastward into central and
southeastern Arizona. This activity is located along the
northeastward edge of a southeast-to-northwest corridor of
instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg
range. In addition, the Tuscon 00Z sounding has 0-6 km shear near 35
knots, with a 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This should be
enough for isolated severe gusts with the strongest of cells over
the next hour or two. Hail will also be possible. Instability will
continue to weaken, with the overall severe threat diminishing by
mid evening.

..Broyles.. 09/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270553
SWODY1
SPC AC 270551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. today and tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the southeastern U.S.
today, as a ridge remains over the central U.S. A low will remain
over southern California. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in
place ahead of the trough in the Southeast, and in parts of southern
Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon in these two areas, but the combination of instability,
lift and shear should be insufficient for severe storms. No severe
threat is expected across the remainder of the continental U.S.
today and tonight.

..Broyles/Moore.. 09/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271237
SWODY1
SPC AC 271235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will be centered over the ArkLaTex and Lower MS
Valley regions today. Upper lows will affect the southwest and
southeast states, where scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms
will occur. Relatively weak CAPE/shear parameters will likely
preclude any organized severe storms. Nevertheless, an isolated
strong/severe storm will be possible over the mountains of east
TN/western NC, and over southwest AZ - both areas being in proximity
to upper low centers where cool temperatures aloft could result in
hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271625
SWODY1
SPC AC 271623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging currently extends from the ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley
through the central High Plains with upper lows flanking this
ridging on each side. The western upper low is centered over
southern CA/Lower CO River Valley. This low is displaced well south
of the westerlies along the US/Canada border and is not expected to
move much throughout the day. In general, poor lapse rates should
temper the buoyancy near and downstream of this low (i.e. from the
Lower CO Valley into AZ), mitigating the overall severe potential.
The greatest buoyancy is expected across far eastern southern CA and southwestern AZ, near the center of the upper low where mid-level
temperatures are coolest. Here, a few stronger storms are possible
during the afternoon and evening. Severe coverage is still expected
to be too low to merit any probabilities.

The eastern upper low, currently centered over the southern
Appalachians, has a more broad circulation than the southern CA low,
with most guidance suggesting it devolves and shifts northeastward
into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the period. Moderate mid-level
southwesterlies will persist within the eastern periphery of this
cyclone (i.e. from the eastern Carolinas into NJ and eastern PA)
today. Buoyancy will be modest, but the stronger shear from these southwesterlies could help support a few stronger multicells capable
of damaging gusts. Overall severe coverage is still expected to be
too low to merit any probabilities.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 09/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271943
SWODY1
SPC AC 271941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. today and tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the outlook, severe potential is limited.
Scattered thunderstorms should continue underneath a broad upper low
over the Southwest. Modest MLCAPE, poor mid-level lapse rates and
decreasing vertical shear will limit storm intensity.

A similar situation is expected beneath the upper low over the
Southeast. Higher PWATs and some clustering of storms could promote
an occasional wet microburst. However, little storm organization and
thus low severe potential is expected. See the prior outlook for
more info.

..Lyons.. 09/27/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging currently extends from the ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley
through the central High Plains with upper lows flanking this
ridging on each side. The western upper low is centered over
southern CA/Lower CO River Valley. This low is displaced well south
of the westerlies along the US/Canada border and is not expected to
move much throughout the day. In general, poor lapse rates should
temper the buoyancy near and downstream of this low (i.e. from the
Lower CO Valley into AZ), mitigating the overall severe potential.
The greatest buoyancy is expected across far eastern southern CA and southwestern AZ, near the center of the upper low where mid-level
temperatures are coolest. Here, a few stronger storms are possible
during the afternoon and evening. Severe coverage is still expected
to be too low to merit any probabilities.

The eastern upper low, currently centered over the southern
Appalachians, has a more broad circulation than the southern CA low,
with most guidance suggesting it devolves and shifts northeastward
into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the period. Moderate mid-level
southwesterlies will persist within the eastern periphery of this
cyclone (i.e. from the eastern Carolinas into NJ and eastern PA)
today. Buoyancy will be modest, but the stronger shear from these southwesterlies could help support a few stronger multicells capable
of damaging gusts. Overall severe coverage is still expected to be
too low to merit any probabilities.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280055
SWODY1
SPC AC 280053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Nocturnal cooling has weakened low-level lapse rates across most of
the CONUS east of the Rockies early this evening. 00z soundings from
coastal Middle Atlantic support this, but PW values remain
seasonally high with several hundred J/kg MLCAPE observed at MHX.
The most robust updrafts may continue to generate lightning at
times, but organized severe is not anticipated.

Farther west, modest southwesterly midlevel flow persists across
northern Mexico into eastern AZ ahead of lower CO River Valley low.
TUS sounding exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with steep lapse rates
through 4km. Occasional lightning will continue to be observed
across much of the southwestern U.S. ahead of this upper trough but
severe is not anticipated.

..Darrow.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280521
SWODY1
SPC AC 280519

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong, to locally severe thunderstorms are expected across
the southern half of New Mexico and far West Texas. Win gusts and
hail are the primary concern.

...NM/Far West TX...

Lower CO River Valley upper low is forecast to gradually weaken and
lift northeast toward the Four Corners region by the end of the
period. This evolution will encourage a bit stronger midlevel flow
to translate across northern Mexico into southern NM later today,
coincident with modest-strong boundary layer
heating/destabilization. While midlevel height falls will prove
negligible to weakly rising, the approaching upper trough is
expected to aid a corridor of scattered robust convection across
northern Mexico-far west TX-southern/central NM. Forecast soundings
suggest convective temperatures will be breached fairly early,
possibly by 20z. At that time profiles exhibit modest-strong 0-6km
bulk shear, with some veering with height. Scattered thunderstorms
should easily develop by mid afternoon and the large-scale
environment favors some updraft organization. Primary concerns will
be gusty winds and hail. Nocturnal cooling, along with convective
overturning, should result in weaker updrafts by mid evening.

..Darrow/Moore.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281208
SWODY1
SPC AC 281207

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are
expected from central New Mexico into far West Texas today.

...NM/West TX...
An upper low over western AZ will continue to track slowly eastward
today, with southwesterly mid/upper-level flow in place over much of
the southwest states. A combination of pockets of favorable daytime
heating and surface dewpoints in the lower 50s will yield 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid
afternoon. This activity will spread across the MRGL risk area
through mid/late afternoon, posing a low-end risk of gusty/damaging
winds and hail.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281618
SWODY1
SPC AC 281617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are
expected from central New Mexico into Far West Texas today.

...NM/Far West TX...
Slow-moving upper low is forecast to continue progressing
northeastward across the Southwest today, moving from its current
position over the Lower CO River Valley/southwest AZ to the Four
Corners by early Monday. Moderate southwesterly mid/upper level flow
will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this system,
spreading from eastern AZ/western NM into the southern High Plains.
Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop this afternoon from central
NM into Far West TX, where modest low-level moisture is anticipated
beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm development is
anticipated across the region this afternoon as lift associated with
the upper low spreads eastward. Combination of shear and buoyancy
should be adequate for a few stronger storms, particularly within
the narrow corridor from ELP (El Paso, TX) northward/northeastward
to ONM (Socorro, NM). Overall profile favors hail as the primary
severe risk, although a few stronger downbursts are possible as
well.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 282002
SWODY1
SPC AC 282000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are
expected from central New Mexico into Far West Texas today.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains generally on track with only minor adjustments
to account for ongoing activity. For additional information, see the
previous forecast below as well as MD 2135.

..Wendt.. 09/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025/

...NM/Far West TX...
Slow-moving upper low is forecast to continue progressing
northeastward across the Southwest today, moving from its current
position over the Lower CO River Valley/southwest AZ to the Four
Corners by early Monday. Moderate southwesterly mid/upper level flow
will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this system,
spreading from eastern AZ/western NM into the southern High Plains.
Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop this afternoon from central
NM into Far West TX, where modest low-level moisture is anticipated
beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm development is
anticipated across the region this afternoon as lift associated with
the upper low spreads eastward. Combination of shear and buoyancy
should be adequate for a few stronger storms, particularly within
the narrow corridor from ELP (El Paso, TX) northward/northeastward
to ONM (Socorro, NM). Overall profile favors hail as the primary
severe risk, although a few stronger downbursts are possible as
well.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290056
SWODY1
SPC AC 290054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic hail and/or a severe wind gust remain possible over parts
of the Southwest this evening, though the threat is gradually
decreasing.

...NM into West TX...
Evening water vapor imagery showed a remnant upper low gradually
weakening over portions of the Desert Southwest to the west of an
expansive ridge across the central and eastern CONUS. Ascent from
the low overspreading a fairly moist air mass across eastern NM and
west TX has resulted in several rounds of scattered strong to
occasionally severe storms earlier this afternoon. Convection
remains ongoing as of 01z ahead of the upper low, but has started to
gradually wane as the broad and weakly unstable air mass has begun
overturning as evidence by the 00z EPZ RAOB. A deepening surface
cold pool from consolidating outflow over portions of southern NM
and West TX, and the loss of diurnal heating should continue the
cooling of the boundary layer and weakening instability trend
through the remainder of this evening.

Lingering surface-based buoyancy of ~500 J/kg on a localized basis
may continue to support an occasional stronger storm through the
early evening given continued 35-45 kt of effective shear. Some
sporadic hail and/or an occasional severe gust cannot be ruled out
with any stronger cores able to persist. However, this appears
increasingly unlikely as upper-level ascent associated with the
upper low is forecast to weaken and the cooling of the boundary
layer continues tonight.

..Lyons.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290557
SWODY1
SPC AC 290556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A sluggish upper-level pattern will be present across much of the
CONUS as strong ridging continues to build over the central and
eastern parts of the country. East of the ridge, TS Imelda is
forecast to gradually strengthen as it approaches the Southeastern
Coast. Across the West, the remnants of an upper low will transition
to a weak open trough as a second elongated upper trough leisurely
moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest.

...Northern Great Basin and Rocky Mountains...
Ahead of the weakening upper low, strong heating of a modestly moist
air mass, in combination with weak large-scale ascent should foster
scattered thunderstorms across the central and southern Rockies.
Modest buoyancy from diminished mid-level lapse rates amid weakening
upper flow suggest little storm organization and severe potential.

Farther north into NV/ID and southern MT, scattered storms are
expected along an eastward-moving cold front this afternoon and
evening. Moderately strong meridional flow should overspread the
western Great Basin ahead of the deepening western US trough. An
occasional stronger storm is possible along the front capable of
sporadic strong wind gusts this afternoon. However, with only modest
surface moisture (dewpoints in the 40s F) and thus limited
instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg), widespread severe storms are not
anticipated.

...Eastern FL Peninsula to Coastal GA and SC...
Outer rainbands associated with Tropical Storm Imelda (centered near
25.0N 77.1W) will approach the eastern FL Peninsula and southeast
Atlantic Coast late in the period. While some stronger convection
may approach the coast late tonight, current forecast trajectories
suggest that more substantial buoyancy/shear profiles within these
bands should remain well offshore. As such, no severe probabilities
have been introduced this outlook. See nhc.noaa.gov for the latest
track information.

..Lyons/Moore.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291127
SWODY1
SPC AC 291126

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Weak flow aloft and limited large-scale forcing mechanisms will be
present today over most of the nation, while an upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest region. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible over the central and southern
Rockies, and along a cold front as it moves into parts of NV/ID and
vicinity. In both areas, limited low-level moisture and weak
instability should preclude severe thunderstorm activity.

TS Imelda is expected to strengthen off the FL coast today, but
remain well offshore. While a few thunderstorms will be possible in
distant outer bands from much of FL into the NC/SC/GA coast, the
risk of strong/severe storms is low.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291617
SWODY1
SPC AC 291615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Modest flow aloft and limited large-scale ascent will exist today
over most of the CONUS, with upper ridging remaining over the
north-central states and Midwest. An upper trough with enhanced
mid-level flow will move gradually inland across western states
through the period, while multiple weak shortwave troughs advance
northeastward over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Scattered to locally numerous afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are forecast along/ahead of a surface cold front as it
moves into parts of NV/ID and vicinity, and also over portions of
the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. In both regions,
limited low-level moisture and weak instability (MLCAPE of 500 J/kg
or less) should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Imelda should strengthen off the FL Coast today, but
will remain well offshore per latest NHC forecast track. While a few thunderstorms will be possible in distant outer rain bands from much
of the FL Peninsula northward to the GA/SC/NC Coast, the risk of
strong to severe convection is expected to remain low due to modest
low-level shear.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291953
SWODY1
SPC AC 291952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Minor updates to the general thunderstorm area in the northern
Plains based on current activity. Otherwise, the previous forecast
reasoning remains valid.

..Wendt.. 09/29/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Modest flow aloft and limited large-scale ascent will exist today
over most of the CONUS, with upper ridging remaining over the
north-central states and Midwest. An upper trough with enhanced
mid-level flow will move gradually inland across western states
through the period, while multiple weak shortwave troughs advance
northeastward over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Scattered to locally numerous afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are forecast along/ahead of a surface cold front as it
moves into parts of NV/ID and vicinity, and also over portions of
the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. In both regions,
limited low-level moisture and weak instability (MLCAPE of 500 J/kg
or less) should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Imelda should strengthen off the FL Coast today, but
will remain well offshore per latest NHC forecast track. While a few thunderstorms will be possible in distant outer rain bands from much
of the FL Peninsula northward to the GA/SC/NC Coast, the risk of
strong to severe convection is expected to remain low due to modest
low-level shear.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300045
SWODY1
SPC AC 300043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Broad high pressure over the eastern CONUS will remain in place this
evening as an expansive cloud shield from TS Imelda overspreads the
Atlantic Coast. Over the West, weak ascent ahead of an upper trough
and cold front were supporting scattered weak thunderstorms over the
Great Basin and Rockies. Modest surface moisture favoring only weak
buoyancy (MLCAPEs less than 500 J/kg) will continue to limit
convective intensity over the western US despite enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft. While a stray severe gust cannot be ruled
out over portions of NV/ID or NM/CO, organized severe storms are not
expected through tonight as convection should gradually weaken.

...FL and the Southeast US Atlantic Coast...
Tropical Storm Imelda is forecast to continue to strengthen off the
FL Coast tonight, but will remain well offshore per latest NHC
forecast guidance. While a few thunderstorms will be possible in
distant outer rain bands from much of the FL Peninsula northward to
the GA/SC/NC Coast, the risk of strong to severe convection is
expected to remain low due to modest low-level shear/buoyancy.

..Lyons.. 09/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300536
SWODY1
SPC AC 300535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
An expansive mid-level ridge will persist from the MS Valley into
the upper Great Lakes a pair of TCs and an upper low intensify off
the Atlantic Seaboard. As these storms are forecast to recurve, dry
offshore flow is expected in their wake over the entirety of the
eastern CONUS as surface high pressure intensifies and move south
out of eastern Canada. The cooler and drier surface conditions
should limit thunderstorm potential outside of coastal FL and the
southern Appalachians where shallow buoyant profiles remain.

A large upper low will gradually expand over the western third of
the CONUS through tonight. While southwesterly flow aloft is
forecast to increase, dry surface conditions are expected as remnant
moisture is scoured east. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible
over the Intermountain West and along a lee trough across the
central High Plains. The presence of only modest surface moisture
and poor lapse rates will limit diurnal destabilization across much
of the CONUS. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible
over the northern Great Basin and High Plains, meager buoyancy and
modest overlap with stronger vertical shear will largely preclude
severe potential.

..Lyons/Moore.. 09/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301157
SWODY1
SPC AC 301156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

A large upper ridge will dominate the weather across the central US
today, while an upper trough overspreads much of the western states.
A shortwave trough currently over southern CA/NV will lift
northeastward today, providing a focus for scattered thunderstorms
across the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the OR coast, the FL east
coast, and the mountains of north GA into east TN. In all of these
areas, weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe
storms today.

..Hart/Dean.. 09/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301602
SWODY1
SPC AC 301600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will be maintained today across the Midwest and Great
Lakes, while upstream troughing advances inland over the western
states. Multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will encourage thunderstorm development through the period from parts of the Great
Basin into the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal WA with
low-topped convection in close proximity to an upper low off the
coast of British Columbia. Other isolated thunderstorms appear
possible this afternoon over portions of the southern Appalachians
and FL Atlantic Coast. For all these areas, weak instability and/or
modest shear should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 09/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301958
SWODY1
SPC AC 301957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update,
including a slight expansion of the General Thunderstorm area in the Appalachians. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 09/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will be maintained today across the Midwest and Great
Lakes, while upstream troughing advances inland over the western
states. Multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will encourage thunderstorm development through the period from parts of the Great
Basin into the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal WA with
low-topped convection in close proximity to an upper low off the
coast of British Columbia. Other isolated thunderstorms appear
possible this afternoon over portions of the southern Appalachians
and FL Atlantic Coast. For all these areas, weak instability and/or
modest shear should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010032
SWODY1
SPC AC 010031

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis...

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible overnight across parts of the
Northwest Coast, Rockies and the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
vicinity in conjunction with a series of upper troughs approaching
the Pacific Coast and moving across the north-central states. Severe
storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010448
SWODY1
SPC AC 010446

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through early Wednesday
morning.

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist across the Pacific
Northwest as an upper trough remains just offshore through the
period. Large-scale ascent and cooling aloft may support isolated
thunderstorms offshore and near the WA Coast/Olympic Peninsula.

Further east, a lead upper shortwave trough will lift northeast
across the northern Plains. A surface trough/wind shift will develop
eastward across the northern/central Plains as this occurs.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer
moisture ahead of the surface boundary. Capping will likely preclude surface-based convection, but isolated elevated thunderstorms are
possible across eastern portions of the Plains toward the Upper
Midwest amid weak instability and modestly steep midlevel lapse
rates within the warm advection regime.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may also occur across portions of
the FL Peninsula. However, thunderstorm coverage/intensity may be
limited by midlevel subsidence despite a seasonally moist/unstable
airmass.

..Leitman.. 10/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011230
SWODY1
SPC AC 011229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through early Thursday
morning.

...Central US...
Upper troughs will affect parts of the northwest US and New England
today, with a broad upper ridge over the central states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing but weakening over the central Plains this
morning. It appears likely this activity will diminish by noon, but
have expanded the TSTM forecast area slightly to account for recent
trends.

...Western WA...
Other thunderstorms are noted this morning off the coast of WA
beneath a cold upper low. It is unclear if activity can make it
onshore, but a few strikes are possible.

...South FL...
Finally, isolated afternoon thunderstorms may affect parts of the
southern FL later today. Severe storms are not expected in any of
these areas.

..Hart/Dean.. 10/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011604
SWODY1
SPC AC 011602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Isolated thunderstorms may persist this afternoon into early evening
across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest amid
weak large-scale ascent associated with modest low-level warm
advection and multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations
spreading northeastward across these regions. Occasional convective
development reaching sufficient levels for charge separation and
lightning generation may also occur this afternoon across parts of
south FL and the Keys, although mid-level lapse rates are expected
to remain very poor. Finally, isolated lighting flashes appear
possible with low-topped thunderstorms in close proximity to an
upper low off the coast of WA and British Columbia, although this
activity should primarily affect only coastal WA and adjacent
offshore waters. For all areas of thunderstorm potential today, weak instability and/or shear are expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 012001
SWODY1
SPC AC 011959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. The
General Thunderstorm area on the east coast of FL was expanded
slightly northward, given the potential for overnight convection
amid strengthening coastal convergence and sufficient buoyancy. The
General Thunderstorm area was removed over the northern High Plains
in the wake of a weakening low-topped convective band.

Farther west, transient rotation has been noted with shallow
updrafts off the WA coast, aided by enhanced low-level hodograph
curvature (see LGX VWP). However, weak buoyancy over coastal areas
should keep any severe risk offshore.

..Weinman.. 10/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Isolated thunderstorms may persist this afternoon into early evening
across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest amid
weak large-scale ascent associated with modest low-level warm
advection and multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations
spreading northeastward across these regions. Occasional convective
development reaching sufficient levels for charge separation and
lightning generation may also occur this afternoon across parts of
south FL and the Keys, although mid-level lapse rates are expected
to remain very poor. Finally, isolated lighting flashes appear
possible with low-topped thunderstorms in close proximity to an
upper low off the coast of WA and British Columbia, although this
activity should primarily affect only coastal WA and adjacent
offshore waters. For all areas of thunderstorm potential today, weak instability and/or shear are expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020056
SWODY1
SPC AC 020054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Lakes region
tonight, as another ridge remains over the southern Rockies. A
shortwave trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S.
Ahead of this trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
evening. Another mid-level trough will approach the Pacific
Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible ahead of
this trough across parts of the Washington coast and from
northeastern Oregon into far northwestern Montana. No severe
thunderstorms are expected across the continental U.S. through
tonight.

..Broyles.. 10/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020558
SWODY1
SPC AC 020556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a ridge will build across the Great Plains today, as
a trough moves onto the West Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible this evening ahead of the trough across parts of the
Intermountain West. Thunderstorm development may also occur today
across Florida, and near an axis of low-level moisture over parts of
the Mississippi Valley. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. today or tonight.

..Broyles/Moore.. 10/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021231
SWODY1
SPC AC 021229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A relatively stagnant upper pattern persists across the nation
today, with a broad ridge across most of the central/eastern US.
Upper troughs will affect the northwest and northeast states. A few
areas will have at least low risk of thunderstorms today.

...Great Basin into Northern Rockies...
As the upper trough continues to slowly build into the western
states, sufficient low/midlevel moisture will be present along and
ahead of a cold front to yield marginal CAPE values (generally below
1000 J/kg). Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon along a corridor from central CA into
western MT. Weak instability and weak low-level winds should
preclude severe storms.

...MN/WI/MI...
A weak cold front will sag southward into the Lake Superior region
later today, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings show modest lapse rates and MLCAPE values of
around 500 J/kg. Shear profiles would support a conditional risk of
organized storms, but weak moisture/instability should preclude
severe storms.

...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in
a moist environment across the lower/mid MS Valley, and over parts
of FL.

..Hart/Dean.. 10/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021631
SWODY1
SPC AC 021630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
today or tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to amplify and build southward along
the West Coast, with preceding height falls over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain West. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of
a cold front, with marginal buoyancy supportive of isolated
thunderstorms later today and especially into tonight from the
Sierra and Great Basin toward the northern Rockies. A couple of
stronger storms could materialize, but severe storms are not
expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms will also be possible across the
Upper Midwest and Lake Superior vicinity, in addition to Florida and
the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021957
SWODY1
SPC AC 021955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and minimal changes were made with
this update. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 10/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025/

...Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to amplify and build southward along
the West Coast, with preceding height falls over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain West. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of
a cold front, with marginal buoyancy supportive of isolated
thunderstorms later today and especially into tonight from the
Sierra and Great Basin toward the northern Rockies. A couple of
stronger storms could materialize, but severe storms are not
expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms will also be possible across the
Upper Midwest and Lake Superior vicinity, in addition to Florida and
the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030058
SWODY1
SPC AC 030056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the southern and central
Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough continues to move across
the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the trough
in parts of the Ark-La-Tex this evening. Additional storms will be
possible tonight across the Florida Peninsula, and over parts of the Intermountain West, ahead of a shortwave trough near the West Coast.
No severe threat is expected through tonight across the continental
U.S.

..Broyles.. 10/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030556
SWODY1
SPC AC 030554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible from late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central and northern Rockies.

...Intermountain West/Central and Northern Rockies...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will be in place today across much of
the western U.S., as a trough moves into the Intermountain West. At
the surface, a low will deepen across western Utah. Surface
dewpoints in many areas to the east and north of the low will be in
the mid 30s and mid 40s F. As surface temperatures warm today,
pockets of weak instability will develop from eastern Utah and
western Colorado northward into western Wyoming and eastern Idaho.
As large-scale ascent increases due to the approaching trough,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this
instability corridor. RAP forecast soundings near the areas of
strongest instability have substantial speed shear in the low to
mid-levels with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels.
This could be conducive for isolated severe wind gusts with
multicells that develop during the late afternoon and evening. In
addition, 500 mb temperatures are forecast to be -12C to -15C which
could support a marginal hail threat. The severe threat could
continue into the overnight period as a band of strong large-scale
ascent moves from west to east across the region.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 10/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible from late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central and northern Rockies.

...Intermountain West into the Central/Northern Rockies...
A well-defined, slightly positively tilted shortwave trough is
currently progressing through northern/central CA. Eastward
progression is expected to continue throughout the day, with the
shortwave forecast reach western UT by early Saturday morning with a
more neutral tilt. Strong mid-level flow will extend throughout the
base of this shortwave, spreading from central/southern CA into the
central Intermountain West as the wave moves eastward. Strong
large-scale forcing for ascent will precede this wave as well,
contributing to isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout much
of the Great Basin into the western Slopes. Strong daytime heating
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support buoyancy
throughout much of this region, although the relatively scant
low-level moisture will keep the overall buoyancy modest. Even with
the modest buoyancy, high-based storms combined with moderate
low/mid-level flow could still result in a few strong surface gusts.
Greatest chance for a few gust will be later this afternoon/early
evening from northern into east-central UT. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of hail are possible this evening and tonight,
particularly across northern/eastern UT and vicinity.

...Elsewhere...
A broad and weak upper low will remain centered over the central
Gulf Coast, with lift associated with this system contributing to
thunderstorms within the moist airmass in place along the Gulf Coast
and FL. Southern extent of a cold front moving across Ontario will
glance Upper MI and northern Lower MI, contributing to isolated
storms. A few afternoon thunderstorms are also possible across Mid
MS Valley amid strong heating, moderate low-level moisture, and
modest low-level convergence. In each of these areas, limited shear
should keep the severe potential low.

An extensive low-level jet is anticipated from the southern High
Plains into the Upper MS Valley tonight. A few elevated
thunderstorms are possible across eastern ND and northwestern MN
tonight, but warm mid-level temperatures should mitigate the overall
severe potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031632
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and small hail
will be possible from late this afternoon into tonight across parts
of the Great Basin and Intermountain West.

...Great Basin and Intermountain West...
A prominent Western states upper trough, centered over the Sierra at
midday, will continue to progress eastward toward/over the Great
Basin, while taking on an increasingly neutral tilt. Consequential
height falls, cooling aloft, and a strengthening of deep-layer winds
will occur in association. This will support increasing and at least
widely scattered thunderstorm development into the afternoon and
tonight as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen and modest
destabilization occurs. Even with limited buoyancy, high-based
storms combined with moderate low/mid-level flow could still result
in a few strong thunderstorm-enhanced surface wind gusts, with the
relatively greatest chance for a few gusts this afternoon/early
evening across northern/east-central Utah. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of mostly sub-severe hail may also occur.

..Guyer/Gleason.. 10/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031951
SWODY1
SPC AC 031949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and small hail
will be possible from late this afternoon into tonight across parts
of the Great Basin and Intermountain West.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In particular, the MRGL risk was extended slightly
westward into far northeastern NV, driven by 5-percent wind
probabilities. Despite limited moisture/buoyancy, strengthening
large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet
and steepening deep-layer lapse rates amid strong low/mid-level flow
could support a couple strong convectively enhanced wind gusts. See
the previous discussion below for more details.

..Weinman.. 10/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025/

...Great Basin and Intermountain West...
A prominent Western states upper trough, centered over the Sierra at
midday, will continue to progress eastward toward/over the Great
Basin, while taking on an increasingly neutral tilt. Consequential
height falls, cooling aloft, and a strengthening of deep-layer winds
will occur in association. This will support increasing and at least
widely scattered thunderstorm development into the afternoon and
tonight as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen and modest
destabilization occurs. Even with limited buoyancy, high-based
storms combined with moderate low/mid-level flow could still result
in a few strong thunderstorm-enhanced surface wind gusts, with the
relatively greatest chance for a few gusts this afternoon/early
evening across northern/east-central Utah. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of mostly sub-severe hail may also occur.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040026
SWODY1
SPC AC 040024

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across much of the Rockies
and Great Basin. Isolated storms are also expected across portions
of the Gulf Coast and upper Great Lakes region.

...01z Update...

High level diffluent flow has overspread much of the Great Basin
into the central Rockies early this evening, just ahead of a
pronounced upper Low located over western NV/southern CA. Despite
meager instability, isolated frontal convection should be common
ahead of the upper trough tonight. While some of this activity could
generate gusts at times, current expectations are that the severe
risk is too low to warrant probabilities.

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible tonight along the
central/western Gulf Coast and near the international border with
Canada from the upper Red River Valley into the U.P. of MI. This
activity is also expected to remain below severe levels.

..Darrow.. 10/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040528
SWODY1
SPC AC 040527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms across the central Rockies into the northern High
Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Rockies to northern Plains...

Upper low over southern NV will begin to eject northeast over the
next few hours, advancing into UT by 12z then open up as a
progressive short-wave trough over WY/CO by early evening. This
feature will move into the eastern Dakotas overnight as 500mb speed
max intensifies and translates toward the upper Red River Valley by
05/12z. At the surface, synoptic front is expected to move very
little, extending from southeast MB-eastern ND-southeast WY.

While strong boundary-layer heating is forecast across the high
Plains into southeast SD, instability should remain weak despite
steep 0-3km lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms should develop ahead
of the short wave across southeast WY/NE Panhandle into western SD,
but forecast soundings suggest hail will struggle to be more than
marginally severe. Some gust potential exists where lapse rates are
steep. More concentrated robust updrafts are expected along the cool
side of the boundary from northern SD into eastern ND/northwest MN
during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the
most buoyant parcels will be rooted near 850mb where MUCAPE could
exceed 1500 J/kg. This post-frontal convection will be aided by a
strengthening LLJ which should encourage some organization,
especially given the approaching short wave. This activity will be
focused mostly after sunset and hail could exceed 1 inch in the
strongest elevated updrafts.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST WY...FAR NORTHEAST CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms across the central Rockies into the northern High
Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Rockies to northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows an upper low moving into western UT
within broadly cyclonic upper flow from the western CONUS into
northern/central Plains. This upper low is forecast to devolve into
an open wave while continuing northeastward within the broad
troughing, reaching the northern Plains by early tomorrow morning.
Moderate to strong mid-level flow will persist throughout the
eastern periphery of this wave, spreading eastward from the central
Rockies and across the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows lower pressure across the Plains ahead
of the upper low. A cold front was also analyzed from southeast
Manitoba southwestward across the central Dakotas and southern WY to
another low in southwest WY. Pressure gradient between these lower
pressures over the Plains and the high over the Mid-Atlantic will
support gusty southerly winds across the Plains and Mid/Upper MS
Valley. Even with this moderate southerly flow, low-level moisture
along and ahead of the cold front will remain modest, offset by
strong boundary-layer heating and resultant mixing. This should keep
much of the northern and central Plains free of thunderstorms
throughout the day.

Some daytime thunderstorms are likely across the central Rockies,
closer to the upper low and stronger large-scale ascent. These
storms are expected to progress northeastward towards a warmer and
more mixed airmass over southeast WY/northeast CO/NE Panhandle
during the late afternoon/early evening. A few stronger gusts are
possible as these ongoing storms interact with the deeply mixed
boundary layer over the area. The cold front will be near this
region as well, with some gust enhancement possible due to frontal
circulations as well.

Later into the evening, a strengthening low-level jet and resulting
warm-air advection will aid in thunderstorm development north of the
front, most likely from northern SD into eastern ND/northwest MN.
Cooling mid-level temperatures will help support moderate buoyancy
with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate vertical shear will be in
place as well, with the resulting environmental conditions
supportive of occasional updrafts capable of producing hail.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041612
SWODY1
SPC AC 041610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms that develop from the central Rockies/High Plains into
the northern Plains late this afternoon into tonight.

...Central Rockies/High Plains into the Northern Plains...
An upper trough/low with attendant strong south-southwesterly
mid-level jet will advance eastward today from the Great Basin
across the central Rockies/High Plains, eventually reaching the
northern Plains late tonight. At the surface, a cold front extends
from the Dakotas southwestward to eastern WY/north-central CO. This
front should serve as a focus for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Recent observations
and 12Z observed soundings along/ahead of the front show limited
low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s
to 50s. Even with filtered diurnal heating through this afternoon,
instability is forecast to remain rather weak as low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen with deep boundary layer mixing. Stronger
mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to
overspread the central High Plains by mid to late afternoon, where
up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible.

Current expectations are for high-based thunderstorms to spread
northeastward from the central Rockies into the adjacent High Plains
this afternoon and evening in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. This may support an organized cluster or two, capable
of producing mainly isolated strong to severe gusts. The greatest
severe wind potential still appears focused across parts of
southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle, where the Slight
Risk has been maintained with no changes. Other thunderstorms may
eventually form this evening/overnight across parts of the northern
Plains and northwest MN as low-level warm advection gradually
strengthens in tandem with an increasing southerly low-level jet.
This activity should tend to remain elevated along/north of the cold
front. But, given sufficient MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear
forecast, the more robust cores may be capable of producing isolated
severe hail/wind.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 10/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041958
SWODY1
SPC AC 041956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms that develop from the central Rockies/High Plains into
the northern Plains late this afternoon into tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. The MRGL risk in MN was expanded slightly
southward based on the latest positioning of the surface front (per
19Z surface analysis). Marginally severe hail accompanying elevated
overnight thunderstorms will be the primary concern here.

Elsewhere, a northeastward extension of the SLGT risk into southern
SD was considered, where middle/upper 50s dewpoints will contribute
to slightly larger buoyancy along the surface boundary. While a
localized uptick in thunderstorm intensity is possible here tonight
(as depicted by some high-resolution guidance), confidence in this
scenario is too low for the upgrade -- especially considering the
late timing/nocturnally cooling boundary layer.

See the previous discussion below for more details.

..Weinman.. 10/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025/

...Central Rockies/High Plains into the Northern Plains...
An upper trough/low with attendant strong south-southwesterly
mid-level jet will advance eastward today from the Great Basin
across the central Rockies/High Plains, eventually reaching the
northern Plains late tonight. At the surface, a cold front extends
from the Dakotas southwestward to eastern WY/north-central CO. This
front should serve as a focus for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Recent observations
and 12Z observed soundings along/ahead of the front show limited
low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s
to 50s. Even with filtered diurnal heating through this afternoon,
instability is forecast to remain rather weak as low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen with deep boundary layer mixing. Stronger
mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to
overspread the central High Plains by mid to late afternoon, where
up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible.

Current expectations are for high-based thunderstorms to spread
northeastward from the central Rockies into the adjacent High Plains
this afternoon and evening in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. This may support an organized cluster or two, capable
of producing mainly isolated strong to severe gusts. The greatest
severe wind potential still appears focused across parts of
southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle, where the Slight
Risk has been maintained with no changes. Other thunderstorms may
eventually form this evening/overnight across parts of the northern
Plains and northwest MN as low-level warm advection gradually
strengthens in tandem with an increasing southerly low-level jet.
This activity should tend to remain elevated along/north of the cold
front. But, given sufficient MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear
forecast, the more robust cores may be capable of producing isolated
severe hail/wind.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050032
SWODY1
SPC AC 050030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail remain possible across the central
and northern Plains tonight.

...01z Update...

Leading edge of large-scale support is spreading across the High
Plains from western SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. In response, a
broken band of convection has matured along this corridor. Over the
next several hours, 500mb speed max should intensify and translate
across the central High Plains into the upper Red River region by
the end of the period. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a
marked increase in LLJ as this speed max/midlevel height falls shift downstream. VAD winds support this with 45kt 1km flow currently
noted across central NE into eastern SD. With time low-level warm
advection should encourage elevated convection along the cool side
of the boundary across the northern Plains. This activity could
produce hail as large as 1-1.5 inches in the strongest updrafts.

..Darrow.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050536
SWODY1
SPC AC 050535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...

Notable short-wave trough, currently located over eastern WY/CO,
will eject into the upper Red River Valley by the start of the day1
period, then advance into northwest ON by early evening. This
evolution will result in weak height rises across much of the
Rockies into the central High Plains, though seasonally strong
southwesterly 500mb flow will extend across KS at peak heating. In
the wake of the ejecting short wave, surface pressures will rise
across the northern/central High Plains which will force a sharp
cold front into southeast NE-central/southwestern KS by 06/00z.

Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating across
the southern High Plains into southwest KS, immediately ahead of the
wind shift. Forecast soundings exhibit steep low-level lapse rates

9 C/km in the 0-3km layer) and convective temperatures should be

breached by 22-23z. Isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the
boundary, and frontal lift may also contribute to some elevated
convection by late evening/overnight hours. While instability is not
expected to be that significant, strong deep-layer shear and an
increasing LLJ during the evening favor some organizational
potential along the frontal zone. Hail/wind are the primary
concerns.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051247
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough
moving quickly across the central/eastern Dakotas. This shortwave is
embedded within broad upper troughing that covers much of the
western and central CONUS. Upper ridging centered over the
Mid-Atlantic covers much of the eastern CONUS.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern ND/SD border
vicinity. A cold front extends southward from this low across
eastern SD and then back more southwestward across central NE and
northwest KS. This low is expected to progress quickly northeastward
just ahead of its parent shortwave, with the cold front making
steady eastward/southeastward progress as well. Airmass preceding
this cold front will be modestly moist, with dewpoints likely in the
upper 50s/lows 60s from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest,
despite relatively strong pre-frontal heating/mixing. Even with
these warm and modestly moist pre-frontal conditions, buoyancy will
remain limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Still,
thunderstorm development appears probable along the length of front
from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. Given the limited
buoyancy and front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical
shear, much of this development will likely be undercut quickly by
the progressive front.

This convective evolution should temper the overall severe
potential, despite seasonally strong mid-level southwesterly flow
near the frontal zone. Greatest severe threat is expected over
western/central KS, where the best overlap between the modest
buoyancy and moderate shear exists. A few more organized updrafts
capable of producing large hail and strong gusts are possible here.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051624
SWODY1
SPC AC 051622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions
of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing over much of central Canada and
the western CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will advance northeastward today into western
Ontario. At the surface, low pressure will similarly track
northeastward, while a cold front continues to advance
south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and central Plains
through this evening. While mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are
expected to be in place ahead of the front this afternoon, warm temperatures/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder the development of
any more than weak instability. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon/early evening along
much of the length of the front from western WI/southern MN
southwestward to western/central KS as a southerly low-level jet
gradually strengthens. Most of this activity will be quickly
undercut given enhanced mid-level flow aligned largely parallel to
the front. Even so, some potential for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms remains apparent across parts of KS into southeast NE
and southwest IA, where convection may have a better chance to
remain surface based for a couple of hours after initiation.
Isolated hail and severe gusts should be the main threat with this
activity before it eventually weakens later this evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this morning offshore
from the central Gulf Coast in association with a weak
mid/upper-level trough over the northern Gulf. Modest low/mid-level
flow should limit thunderstorm organization, but occasional/weak
low-level rotation has occurred with cells south of the FL
Panhandle. With east-northeasterly low-level flow expected to
persist along the coast, overall severe potential over land appears
too low to include any severe probabilities.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051952
SWODY1
SPC AC 051950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions
of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...20Z Update...
The only change with this update was a minor southward expansion of
the MRGL risk area into the OK/TX Panhandles. Here, the latest
surface observations indicate middle 50s dewpoints ahead of the
front, which should support sufficient surface-based buoyancy for an isolated/brief strong-severe storm risk -- given 30-40 kt of
effective shear and a nocturnally strengthening LLJ. Marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary concerns with
any sustained storms this evening. Elsewhere, the forecast remains
on track. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 10/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025/

...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing over much of central Canada and
the western CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will advance northeastward today into western
Ontario. At the surface, low pressure will similarly track
northeastward, while a cold front continues to advance
south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and central Plains
through this evening. While mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are
expected to be in place ahead of the front this afternoon, warm temperatures/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder the development of
any more than weak instability. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon/early evening along
much of the length of the front from western WI/southern MN
southwestward to western/central KS as a southerly low-level jet
gradually strengthens. Most of this activity will be quickly
undercut given enhanced mid-level flow aligned largely parallel to
the front. Even so, some potential for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms remains apparent across parts of KS into southeast NE
and southwest IA, where convection may have a better chance to
remain surface based for a couple of hours after initiation.
Isolated hail and severe gusts should be the main threat with this
activity before it eventually weakens later this evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this morning offshore
from the central Gulf Coast in association with a weak
mid/upper-level trough over the northern Gulf. Modest low/mid-level
flow should limit thunderstorm organization, but occasional/weak
low-level rotation has occurred with cells south of the FL
Panhandle. With east-northeasterly low-level flow expected to
persist along the coast, overall severe potential over land appears
too low to include any severe probabilities.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060049
SWODY1
SPC AC 060047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over
portions of the central and southern Plains this evening.

...Midwest into the central and southern Plains...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad and elongated upper trough
over much of the central CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave
trough over the northern Plains will advance northeastward while a
secondary vort max continues eastward over the central Rockies.
Ascent from these features and a southwesterly mid-level jet will
overspread a northeast to southwest oriented surface cold front from
MN to eastern CO. Modest surface moisture and prior diurnal heating
along the front have allowed weak surface-based destabilization,
supporting scattered storm development early this evening.

As convection continues developing, an isolated severe storm risk is
expected given 35-45 kt of effective shear and a nocturnally
strengthening LLJ along the front. A few initial supercell
structures are likely given the strong flow aloft. With time,
anafrontal forcing and increasing storm coverage should transition
ongoing storms toward a more linear mode. This will favor some
initial severe hail and isolated severe gusts as the primary
concerns before storms weaken overnight.

Farther north across the Midwest, an occasional strong/severe storm
will remain possible this evening. Despite stronger synoptic ascent
closer to the shortwave trough, lingering cloud cover and limited
moisture have stymied available buoyancy. This should limit storm
intensity, though isolated strong gusts remain possible tonight as
linear convection should gradually mature along the front.

..Lyons.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060547
SWODY1
SPC AC 060545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
In the mid-levels, a broad upper trough will continue eastward
across southern Canada and the northern US while a weak
positive-tilt perturbation will move eastward over the Rockies and
northern Plains within a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow. At the
surface, a cold front associated with the upper trough will move
slowly east/southeastward, supporting scattered thunderstorms from
the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. While a few stronger storms
are possible, minimal overlap of stronger buoyancy and vertical
shear will largely preclude organized severe potential today and
tonight.

...Southern High Plains...
As the cold front continues south across the central and southern
Plains, low-level easterly flow will increase over portions of
eastern NM and west TX/OK. Weak upslope flow and diurnal heating of
the modestly moist air mass should result in weak destabilization
(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) through the afternoon. This could support
scattered thunderstorms (a couple of which may briefly be stronger)
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. With 30 kt of
deep-layer shear overspreading the area, multi-cell clusters capable
of occasional strong outflow gusts are the primary risk. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates, modest forcing for ascent and limited
buoyancy suggest low storm coverage and limited potential for a more
widespread and organized severe risk.

...Midwest to the central Plains...
Along the cold front/surface trough, weak forcing ahead of an
embedded shortwave perturbation within broad southwesterly flow
aloft should support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon from
the central Plains to the Midwest. Surface heating along with modest
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will support modest buoyancy of 500 to
1000 J/kg, surface based ahead of the front and elevated
along/behind it. A few stronger storms with damaging gust potential
are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
oriented along the boundary. These storms may continue after dark
into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust potential. However, the
lack of more robust destabilization should limit storm
organization/intensity.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061239
SWODY1
SPC AC 061238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the
vicinity of a cold front that extends from the TX Panhandle
northeastward through eastern Upper MI. This cold front is forecast
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs move within the upper troughing that extends from
the Canadian Prairies southwestward off the central/southern CA
coast. Moderate southwesterlies will persist throughout the eastern
periphery of the upper troughing, although much of this stronger
flow will remain displaced north of the cold front.

Given the presence of moderate pre-frontal low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints generally in the low 60s), showers and occasional
thunderstorms are expected along the front as it continues eastward/southeastward today. However, overall buoyancy will be
tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. Two areas along the frontal
zone, northern IL into Lower MI and eastern NM/TX Panhandle, do
appear to have a higher potential for a few stronger storms.

...Northern IL into Lower MI...
Surface dewpoints in the low 60s, temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) are expected
across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Lift along
the front, along with additional ascent provided by a low-amplitude
embedded shortwave trough, will interact with this buoyancy to
support thunderstorm development along the cold front as it
progresses eastward across the region. Moderate shear will also be
in place, with the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector a bit
more orthogonal to the front than areas farther south. As such,
there is greater potential for thunderstorms to remain within the
warm sector longer. As such, a few stronger storms with damaging
gust potential are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of
effective shear oriented along the boundary. These storms may
continue after dark into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust
potential. Even so, minimal buoyancy should limit the overall severe
threat.

...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle...
Strong heating and mixing will contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization ahead of the cold front by the late afternoon. This destabilization will likely lead to thunderstorm development along
the front, but the overall buoyancy will be limited by warm
mid-level temperatures/poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, high
storm bases and 30 kt of deep-layer shear could result in a few
stronger gusts. Overall potential and coverage is currently expected
to be too low to merit introducing any severe probabilities.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061557
SWODY1
SPC AC 061555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
organized severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move across central Canada and the
northern Plains today, with an associated surface cold front
extending from the western Great Lakes region into the southern
Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s in vicinity of the front,
coupled with pockets of strong heating, will yield at least marginal
CAPE from Lower MI southwestward into NM. This will support the
development of multiple clusters of storms along and immediately
behind the front. Sufficient low and midlevel wind fields suggest a
low-end risk of an afternoon strong storm or two from northeast IL
into lower MI, but weak thermodynamics are expected to limit the
risk. Other strong storms are possible over east-central NM where
steep mid-level lapse rates will be present, but weak low-level
winds will limit convective organization.

Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight over parts of the southeast states and lower MS Valley, but
weak parameters suggest the severe threat is low.

..Hart/Barnes.. 10/06/2025

$$

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