AWUS01 KWNH 210210
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1009 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southwest MO...Northwest AR...Far
Southeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210210Z - 210800Z

SUMMARY...Increasing WAA from strengthening low-level jet
intersecting pool of moist/unstable air. Favorable mid-level flow
may support training and isolated back-building/cell mergers to
support

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a subtle shortwave feature
moving along the central OK/KS boarder providing some mid-level
DPVA and positive ascent profiles downstream, coincident with
early evening low-level jet acceleration up to 20kt and eventually
veering more southwest to northeast and into the 30kt range. This
ascent is interacting with an old linger outflow boundary from
this morning's activity that connects from the surface front just
east of AVK toward SWO, MKO, FSM and more east across central AR.=20
Enhanced moisture of upper 60s to even mid 70s Tds with still some
remaining higher surface temperatures maintains a pool of
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across NE OK. The ascent pattern
convection has been pressing eastward into Osage county and
isolated pre-cursory cells north of Tulsa have been fairly
stationary in a 500-1000mb thickness ridge, that supports some
upstream redevelopment. Stronger updrafts and low level moisture
has made the cells fairly prolific/intense with hourly rates up to
2"/hr, with some localized observations over 3" near
Collingsville. This activity is likely to become a bit more
progressive with time, but localized totals may intersect areas
saturated this morning and have lower FFG values of 1.5"/hr and
less than 3"/3hrs, suggesting increased run-off is possible.

Further northeast, the northeast edge of the LLJ combined with the
northern edge of this morning's rain foot has concentrated
flow/convergence to support a NW to SE oriented 925-850mb FGEN
band. The convergence along which has sprouted some elevated
convection along the northeast edge of the higher instability air.
Deeper layer flow, here initially will support NW to SE cell
motions allowing for some potential training across SW MO/NW AR.=20
Spots of 2-3" may be possible, but eventual backing of the deeper
layer flow will reduce orthogonal ascent convergence and cells
from NE OK, will slide northeast and meld/merge. Rates may
trickle up to 1.75-2"/hr for these short-term mergers, but given
more rugged terrain with low water crossings, there is some
potential for possible incident or two of localized flash flooding
through the overnight period here as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_xp65VQ2MNcpbph3TQEkY66KmhWeulAAQwOxxAycrLMAfmHAZREsooxCtV72-ZYUMn6W= wuxj_HVMHjB-3iXlzKTKUro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37469484 37159307 36649217 36029197 35679252=20
35869334 35979438 35819600 36279667 36859667=20
37239626=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210708
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-211130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Northwest and north-central Arkansas...Far
Southern Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210715Z - 211130Z

SUMMARY...Mature MCS continues to be fueled by upstream unstable, warm-advection for a few more hours. Additional 2-3" totals over
saturated grounds will continue to pose localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows a mature MCS with forward
propagating outflow boundary convection along the southern flank
of the complex from Madison to Marion counties in N AR. Resultant
Meso-high is reducing residency for the squally line, however, VWP
continues to depict favorable 15-25kt inflow from the southwest
(out of NE OK), where the remaining pool of moderately unstable
air, higher low level theta-E air resides. RADAR denotes this
with the upwind edge lifting northeast across far NW AR,
potentially back across the most saturated zones of SW MO and NW
AR. This while remaining in fairly diffluent flow aloft at the
splitting of the upper-level jet and right entrance of a 50kt
speed max across far SE KS into western MO; these features will
help to maintain the upwind WAA for a few more hours, but
divergence and remaining unstable air should slowly reduce the
convective vigor of the overall complex in the next 2-3 hours.=20=20

Still, ample deep layer moisture and 1000-1250 J/kg of unstable
air with the strength of flux will maintain some rainfall
efficiency toward 1.5"/hr. As deeper layer steering flow backs
from westerly to southwesterly, current orientation of the outflow
boundary may yield some short-term training as well, mainly across
saturated areas from this round, but also earlier Saturday
morning. An additional 2-3" locally (particulalry along the
upwind edge of the complex) will continue to pose a localized
flash flooding risk through the late overnight period (3-4 hrs).=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-8EvAbxrjlXTy_-lIO4sDca2_KC1sDBToAAu5h3GJYPj3pBIV-MYRMusvaMuUyNTiovg= UacmOnKFKUi2p27rH1SeGvU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36879333 36719223 36529136 36159109 35659117=20
35429171 35309264 35389383 35629431 36389445=20
36789396=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210858
FFGMPD
KSZ000-211330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Central Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210900Z - 211330Z

SUMMARY...A few scattered incidents of flash flooding are possible
as cells capable of 1.5"/hr may repeat/train over the next few
hours. A spot or two of 2-3" totals will near FFG, suggesting
isolated localized flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a very broad area of large
scale diffluence across much of Kansas, as a strong 90kt 250mb jet
turns southeast out of CO into NW TX; while a digging northern
stream trough and shortwave crossing west-central NEB provide
large scale divergence ascent across KS. Toward the surface, a
poorly defined surface boundary extends from the Kansas City Metro
southwest toward a low near Wichita, then extends due west before
turning north across eastern CO. Broad southerly flow across the
southern Plains remains about 20-25kts providing moderate moisture
flux, with the nose of the moisture axis centered along 98W. CIRA
LPW shows the enhanced pockets of moisture from surface (Tds in
the low to mid 60s throughout KS/OK), overlap with maxima across
the 850-700mb layer along the KS/OK border and 700-500mb in
central OK...resulting in a 1.5" total PWat corridor toward the
area of concern fluxed on the LLJ.

Steeper mid-level lapse rates has provided broad area of
conditionally unstable air with 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE across
the area of concern. However, maximized convergence has resulted
in two west to east moisture convergence axes; the first lower,
just near the boundary layer has activated scattered, narrow
updrafts with a few stronger isolated near surface rooted embedded
cells across SW KS that have greater cloud depth an moisture
availability. This, while speed convergence and weak FGEN ascent
could tap elevated unstable air near 800mb in proximity to I-70
corridor. As such, regional RADAR shows greater convective vigor
over a broader area, further north. Rates up to 1.25-1.5"/hr are
probable with the elevated cells. Both areas have favorable
orientation to the deeper west to easterly flow and with solid
outflow aloft, should maintain on the modest remaining instability
for the next few hours. Given repeating/training potential,
widely scattered totals of 3"+ are possible.

Hydrologically, FFG values are 1.5"/hr and about 2.5"/3hrs.
However, there are areas of recent heavier rainfall that have
likely rebounded a bit too quickly as noted in NASA SPoRT 0-40cm
soil ratios in the 50-60% range from Hodgeman to Stafford counties
and further south across Pratt, Barber, Kingman and Harper
counties from last night's complex. Given the rates and cell
orientation, FFG exceedance and localized flash flooding is
considered possible, until southerly moisture flux convergence
becomes too weak to maintain convective vigor

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_ZkBD8gzxo8ijy8VPzOzBVt_tpjly5t5uMLSvjb012_CRZ9Ni9J3wsQDVJbrSZBf7nHI= m0F4kJOLSHAMUStTLGYuhh8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39289872 39279787 39249743 39039690 38709640=20
38359624 37979643 37699706 37569743 37409810=20
37279902 37379974 37770046 38240049 38640018=20
39069969=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220732
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-221300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Western to Central Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220730Z - 221300Z

SUMMARY...Area of concern will remain in favorable region for
upstream redevelopment and repeat track clusters of storms. Rates
to 1.5"/hr and spots of 2-3.5" suggest an incident or two of
localized flash flooding is possible through daybreak.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes compact shortwave at base of
broader scale long wave trough is exiting south-central MO, with
trailing confluence trough through the low to mid-levels lingering
across west-central AR into far eastern OK. A few stronger
clusters with rates of up to 1.5"/hr and similar localized totals
have been noted along this axis for much of the overnight period,
helping to saturate the upper soil profiles and locally reduce
FFG. However, recent 3.9um/10.3um IR loops show increasing
mid-level cloudiness and agitated shallow convective environment
across the upstream edge of the ongoing clusters. RAP analysis
denotes a weakening cap with CINH reducing below 15 J/kg across
western AR into far Northeast TX, generally coincident with
instability and low to mid-level confluence axis. While, lapse
rates are limited, low level theta-E remains and supports
1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE trough this area and points west. CIRA
LPW and RAP analysis also note the deeper layer moisture axis
further west within the broader southwesterly 25-30kt LLJ across
central to eastern OK, though overall deep layer confluence also
depicts a pool of moisture to 1.7" along the best convergence over
western AR.

Aloft, the speed max of the subtropical jet is reaching the apex
of the ridge further upstream over CO, but the exit of the jet is
digging southward across central OK/NE TX, resulting is broadening
left exit divergence to support upstream redevelopment and slow
veering of the LLJ further increasing low-level convergence. As
such, expectation for further upstream development is expected for
the next 3-6hrs. Deep layer steering mean flow is toward the
northeast as the shortwave exits, however, the strength of the
approaching jet has sharpened the 500-1000 thickness ridge to the
west and propagation vectors are starting to turn upstream to the
low-level inflow, bending the storm track vectors more west to
east. This should allow for upstream thunderstorm clusters that
do develop to once again track through areas recently saturated.=20
Rates of 1.5"/hr and potential for additional 2-3" totals suggest
scattered incidents of localized flash flooding are becoming
increasingly possible through the remainder of the overnight
period. There remains some uncertainty to the latitude of the
redevelopment, but any activity further north will also intersect
areas saturated over the last two nights as well into NW,
north-central AR.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8BblS9xxEqPsw_KBtK_DrEPLT3ltN387XEmCj8W7t-snZuSyK92wcWmOEthTaSIkNEDq= WcUO_g9tzGv6ePFuxOJ77HY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36169515 36049332 35769228 35319175 34679197=20
34509246 34509322 34699424 35039523 35669561=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221301
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221740-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...eastern OK into central/northern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221259Z - 221740Z

SUMMARY...Continued training of showers and thunderstorms will
maintain an increased potential for flash flooding from portions
of eastern OK into central/northern AR over the next 3-5 hours.
Hourly rainfall will range from 1 to 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 1230Z showed an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms over north-central AR, in the vicinity of I-40 to
the west of Little Rock. This area has been associated with
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches since at least 10Z
within areas of training. A second small cluster was located just
north of Dallas/Fort Worth while additional shower/thunderstorm
activity was developing over eastern OK. All of these areas were
located just north of an effective quasi-stationary front draped
from AR WSW into northern TX enforced by rain-cooled outflow. VAD
wind plots across the region highlighted 850 mb wind speeds of
20-30 kt from the SW across TX into AR but with veering toward the
WSW over TX since 10Z. Meanwhile, SPC mesoanalysis data from 12Z
indicated MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg along and north and just north
of the effective front with short term RAP forecasts showing
weakening inhibition over eastern OK over the next few hours with
the onset of daytime heating and continued low level moisture
advection into the region.

Short term RAP forecasts are in line with weakening of the low
level jet through 18Z but the boundary will remain and some degree
of overrunning should continue over the next few hours with a
strongly favorable diffluent/divergent region aloft over AR ahead
of a sub-tropical jet max over KS/OK. Some expansion of
shower/thunderstorm activity is expected over eastern OK over the
next 1-2 hours with potential for training within the mean
westerly steering flow. Given the high precipitable water
environment (1.5 to 2.0 inches) and sufficient instability,
pockets of training are likely to continue at least localized
areas of flash flooding over the next 1-2 hours with possible
continuation of the flash flood threat through 17Z, though
confidence beyond the next 1-2 hours is lower than average given
poor model handling of the ongoing activity.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7mMb_MBCtX5vSFb7ebwCcUwmlv3mlFQoNNIOP_o31Z9Ie_pL5TBxwBb1D-0tU0iRsX73= N0maKVVqiLfDKtL_EyRyz58$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36049368 35959248 35739092 35419054 34569097=20
34409275 34289423 33669526 32999622 33179711=20
33599726 34759684 35579603 35999493=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222305
FFGMPD
NMZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222304Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be
impacting central and eastern NM over the next couple of hours.
Some flash flooding impacts may occur over especially portions of
the Sacramento Mountains where there are sensitive burn scar
locations.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a couple of bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms
moving rather progressively off to the east across central NM.
This activity is advancing east in conjunction with shortwave
energy traversing the southern Rockies and interacting with a
relatively convergent, moist and unstable boundary layer pooled
across central and eastern NM.

SBCAPE values are locally near 1000 J/kg with PWs across the
region running upwards of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal.
Some shear is noted overhead with the belt of stronger shortwave
energy nearby, and this is favoring some loose organization of the
convection with bands of multicell activity.

Despite the progressive nature of the convection, this activity
will be capable of bringing heavy rainfall rates which will soon
impact the Sacramento Mountains and portions of the Lincoln
National Forest where there are multiple sensitive burn scar
locations. This includes the Blue 2, South Fork, Salt and McBride
burn scar complex, and notably near and adjacent to Ruidoso.

Rainfall amounts of as much as a 0.50 inch in 15 minutes will be
possible, with some spotty storm totals of up to 1 inch where any
repeating cell-activity occurs through early this evening. These
rains may result in there being some burn scar flash flooding
impacts as a result over the next 1 to 2 hours until the activity
passes off to the east.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QEWH4X4cJCACaXajCgebzBFdObj0PLsGvdgycDMbAYD4-eeJ0khZyQnuz-wzT0vx6x3= xUrZGPGwDNp3gi-dv2fzSmU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34480446 33940410 33560422 33140479 32850604=20
32880675 33110718 33440732 33800714 34270620=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222314
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-230500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Far Eastern CO and Western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222313Z - 230500Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected going into the evening hours across
portions of far eastern CO and western KS. Isolated areas of flash
flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Late-day GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with
regional radar data shows developing and gradually expanding
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms across parts of far
eastern CO and northwest KS, with the activity focusing along a
developing frontal boundary. Increasing low-level moisture
convergence is noted along this front, and the convection is
developing within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass
characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg.

This instability along with 30 to 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
is already favoring some supercell thunderstorm development, and
over the next several hours as upstream shortwave energy/forcing
arrives from central Rockies and crosses the High Plains, there
will be a favorable environment for expanding and organizing
clusters of multicell and supercell thunderstorms.

By early to mid-evening, the main convective threat area should
involve far eastern CO and western KS, but a combination of
cell-merger activity and upscale MCS development is expected in
time as DPVA/height falls provide stronger forcing in conjunction
with a strengthening southerly low-level jet across the central
Plains ahead of the aforementioned front. This will gradually
allow for the convective mass to expand off to the east and
southeast going through the overnight hours.

While much of the convection this evening will primarily be of a
severe nature, there will be sufficient levels of moisture
transport and convective cell organization to promote high
rainfall rates that may reach 1 to 2 inches/hour. Cell-merger
activity and localized cell-training concerns may foster there
being some rainfall totals of 3 to 4+ inches by mid-evening. This
is consistent with the 18Z HREF/12Z REFS suites of guidance.

As a result, there may be an isolated threat for some flash
flooding over the next several hours as these stronger multicell
and supercell thunderstorm clusters evolve.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9IJ6lg5u3UtcfLHVvR4vbV7rFLaQCb6tyJnIuXhtyRieIFnzk0e7ShbKimi-k8gEWlIH= KCoQQcTf82-USiTV5IvTXQc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39710138 39670031 39479958 38769927 38109956=20
37950065 38300152 38400196 38680289 38800343=20
39250362 39500322 39620231=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230106
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-230630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Southwest SD...Northwest NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230105Z - 230630Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms may result
in a threat for isolated areas of flash flooding over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
convective tops across southwest SD in response to a combination
of amplifying mid-level shortwave energy and a nose of moderate
instability focused near a front. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000
J/kg are noted across the region along with an axis of moderately
strong moisture convergence.

Model guidance suggests a further amplification of mid-level
energy/height falls with a rather tight 700 mb circulation
forecast to evolve overnight along the SD/NE border with a slow
southward drift in time. This will help support a relatively
strong mid-level deformation zone around the western flank of the
low center, with a favorable axis of moisture convergence and some frontogenetical forcing working in tandem with the available
instability to support additional concentrated focus for heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates with the convection over the next few hours will be
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour, and with the slow
cell-motions, some localized storm totals may reach 3 to 4 inches
which is consistent with the latest hires model guidance. An
isolated threat for flash flooding will exist where the heavier
rainfall totals materialize over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!591XiKxBXRChhYw7AD4xj8WZr883DGw6HhZ1CVNV_VSG5T2v_5HTGwA_s-p0GB7br9AN= P0w_s-4BeL3b1zTMoEAHZlE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44570340 44480281 43950219 43330120 42820105=20
42670149 42620181 42480227 42100279 42310354=20
43080399 43570395 44140386=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230231
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-230800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Iowa...Eastern Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230230Z - 230800Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/stationary cells to intersect back-building
upwind edge of southward moving squall line in IA. Strong
moisture flux convergence will support rates up to 2" and
localized spots of 2-4" resulting in scattered localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...02z surface analysis shows a sharpening frontal zone
across northern IA, in particular in NW IA before front stalls
northeast of developing surface wave near Ord, NEB. This northerly
flow is opposed by strengthening south and southwesterly flow
across SE NEB and within 850mb 25-30kt LLJ. RAP analysis fields
show much of eastern NEB and SW IA remain fairly unstable, though
capped with over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. As FGEN/moisture flux
convergence continues to strengthen, the cap has already weakened
in a few places in E NEB for stronger cells to develop, but will
continue to expand with time. Combine this with outflow from
ongoing convective squall line in central IA, likely to further
build/expand convective coverage westward into the strengthening
WAA.

Aloft, the dominant closed low over the Great Lakes is breaking
eastward while the replacing stronger cyclone is building through
the Central Rockies. This has lead to a decoupling/de-phasing of
the longer wave trough and resulted in a mid-level col in the
flow. Stretching and overall DPVA remains to provide strong
ascent, though the deformation zone from 700-500mb will allow for
very slow cell motions with upstream back-building likely along
the flanking outflow boundaries from the cells themselves. The
strength of moisture flux convergence of 25-30kts and Tds in the
50s to mid 60s through 700mb supports total Pwats toward 1.75" and
convergence to allow for cells to be highly efficient with rates
of 2"/hr probable. The limited motions should also support
localized totals of 2-4" over 2-3hrs especially before the cold
front starts surging (mainly from east to west-southwest) through
the early overnight period.=20

While the area has been stricken by drought conditions, as NASA
SPoRT 0-40cm RSM values are at or below 10%, the steer magnitude
of rates on hard grounds will have limited infiltration initially
and support higher run-off potential. Combine this with hourly
FFG values around 1.5-2"/hr & 2-3"/3hrs, these scattered slow
moving cells initially will pose a possible localized flash
flooding concern though the early overnight period. As the front
presses cells south, shorter residency should limit totals but
isolated flash flooding will still be a problem in the area of
concern.=20


Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81GcsSC-8A_pdUA78uSry6rllqC7eTr38gojJa-rTH5W9swqUOe8N6PS7T9sx2_ZiPLJ= aLjUo53Bar31VoghLkM4jQU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42179617 42129450 41919369 41309318 40639362=20
40649603 40259793 40699884 41469880 42039733=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230441
FFGMPD
KSZ000-231015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...Much of Western & Southern Kansas...Northern
Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230445Z - 231015Z

SUMMARY...A highly dynamic environment will support strong
moisture flux into a deformation zone resulting in slow moving but
efficient rainfall production (rates to 1.75"/hr) resulting in
localized spots of 2-3"+ and possible scattered localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows core of developing larger scale
closed low over the Central Rockies with strong undercutting polar
jet energy across Colorado into the Central Plains.
Simultaneously, the apex of the subtropical jet has reached KS and
with broad anticyclonically curved baroclinic shield of cirrus
over much of northern KS and southern NEB, with occasional
overshooting tops breaking out through the canopy. An older
smaller scale shortwave exists in the increasingly divergent
portion of northern KS and will meld with southern stream
shortwave surging out of the TX/OK panhandles.

With all the moving parts in the mid-levels, the surface pattern
is lagging a bit being a bit further north for the frontal zone,
with a cold front surging down eastern CO, a surface wave in NW KS
is slow to advance southeast and with further surge of WAA across
south-central into E NEB; this results in a broad conditionally
unstable warm sector across much of western and central KS. With
the southwesterly surge of low to mid-level flow, the warm
conveyor belt/LLJ is strengthening and becoming increasingly
convergent across the KS/OK border though is starting to back from
southerly to southeasterly as the southwesterly drier air lifts.=20
This is sharpening a shear/stretching deformation zone across
west-central KS through toward north-central KS from TQK to HYS to
CNK. This will support strong deep layer moisture flux
convergence and with ample 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE will allow for
stronger vertical development and potential for rates of
1.5-1.75"/hr, given flux of 1.5" PWs mainly loaded below 700mb.=20

As the 700-500mb low sets up along the lower-level deformation
zone, cell motions will be slow and eastward with potential for
some mergers/collisions so occasional embedded uptick toward 2"/hr
rates. The higher residency of a few hours to exhaust the
unstable air, should allow for localized totals of 2-3"+ perhaps
an isolated 4" total. There is a fairly sharp gradient of soil
saturation conditions across central KS being wetter further
south. Still, FFG values of 1.5"/hr and less than 3"/3hrs seem
approachable suggesting a few scattered incidents of flash
flooding are considered possible through the remainder of the
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9XoGsiMKe81FpYQMuvFd2upn0BNKW47QqxUDv1AuhqGwSm4qZF2umCqEw5VkaoSVrytK= b6pFOrSRyeAC_hpDXcJ7GvU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39499740 39369669 38579653 37849834 37820024=20
38210134 38620178 39130159 39350117 39340033=20
39239918 39299818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230451
FFGMPD
KSZ000-231015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1121...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Corrected for Correction for Areas Affected

Areas affected...Western to Central Kansas....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230445Z - 231015Z

SUMMARY...A highly dynamic environment will support strong
moisture flux into a deformation zone resulting in slow moving but
efficient rainfall production (rates to 1.75"/hr) resulting in
localized spots of 2-3"+ and possible scattered localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows core of developing larger scale
closed low over the Central Rockies with strong undercutting polar
jet energy across Colorado into the Central Plains.
Simultaneously, the apex of the subtropical jet has reached KS and
with broad anticyclonically curved baroclinic shield of cirrus
over much of northern KS and southern NEB, with occasional
overshooting tops breaking out through the canopy. An older
smaller scale shortwave exists in the increasingly divergent
portion of northern KS and will meld with southern stream
shortwave surging out of the TX/OK panhandles.

With all the moving parts in the mid-levels, the surface pattern
is lagging a bit being a bit further north for the frontal zone,
with a cold front surging down eastern CO, a surface wave in NW KS
is slow to advance southeast and with further surge of WAA across
south-central into E NEB; this results in a broad conditionally
unstable warm sector across much of western and central KS. With
the southwesterly surge of low to mid-level flow, the warm
conveyor belt/LLJ is strengthening and becoming increasingly
convergent across the KS/OK border though is starting to back from
southerly to southeasterly as the southwesterly drier air lifts.=20
This is sharpening a shear/stretching deformation zone across
west-central KS through toward north-central KS from TQK to HYS to
CNK. This will support strong deep layer moisture flux
convergence and with ample 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE will allow for
stronger vertical development and potential for rates of
1.5-1.75"/hr, given flux of 1.5" PWs mainly loaded below 700mb.=20

As the 700-500mb low sets up along the lower-level deformation
zone, cell motions will be slow and eastward with potential for
some mergers/collisions so occasional embedded uptick toward 2"/hr
rates. The higher residency of a few hours to exhaust the
unstable air, should allow for localized totals of 2-3"+ perhaps
an isolated 4" total. There is a fairly sharp gradient of soil
saturation conditions across central KS being wetter further
south. Still, FFG values of 1.5"/hr and less than 3"/3hrs seem
approachable suggesting a few scattered incidents of flash
flooding are considered possible through the remainder of the
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8CmRk1etGdEO6-eWZwsb5ll8cjyE_b2n0s0slx-Z4dZQhZWEBj494Vlkqh0ni14PBPwx= SYrLk1g74k_Uxy9CsqWAOWg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39499740 39369669 38579653 37849834 37820024=20
38210134 38620178 39130159 39350117 39340033=20
39239918 39299818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230519
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-231030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
118 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Northern Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230515Z - 231030Z

SUMMARY...Efficient, intense, quick-hitting thunderstorms capable
of sub-hourly totals of 1-2" and totals to 3"+ pose localized
flash flooding concerns through overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR loop shows fast moving clusters of
thunderstorms with isolated overshooting tops cooling to -80C
across SW KS into NW OK. RADAR mosaic denotes the broadening arch
of these cells in advance of a fast moving southern stream
shortwave features exiting the OK Panhandle. The arch is an
alignment of mid-level DPVA ascent and strong confluent boundary
layer convergence of southwesterly flow off the high terrain and
broadening, but strengthening LLJ responding to the much larger
scale height-falls and organization of the closed low across the
Central Rockies. VWP and RAP analysis shows the strong deep
layer WAA veering with strengthening 30 to 35kt flow through
925-850mb convergent on this arch. Low 70s Tds at the surface,
60s through 850mb and even low 40s at 700mb shows convergence
though depth very well within animation of the CIRA LPW resulting
in 1.75" total PWats, but very strong deep layer flux convergence.
MLCAPEs over 3000 J/kg combined with strength of flux is
resulting in high rainfall generation/efficiency for these
expanding clusters.=20

Limiting factors are the strength of the flow, is resulting in
very quick cell motions of 30-40kts, limiting residency. However,
regional RADAR mosaic denotes the updrafts are broadening along
the length of the mean flow, increasing duration ever so slightly.
Currently, KDDC/KVNX suggest hourly estimates of 1-1.5", though
are steadily increasing given overall increase of deep layer
moisture. 03z HRRR suggests peak of 1.5-2" in 15 minutes across
south-central KS between 06-08z, which does not seem implausible
and aligns with 00z HREF 2"/hr probability of 40%. As such,
localized totals of 2-3" in 1-2 hours may result in localized
flash flooding conditions, especially given most areas within the
area of concern have 1hr FFG values at or below 2", with some
areas of south-central KS into northeast OK, slightly reduced
further to below 1.5", given recent rainfall. Still, the overall
speed of cells may result in a highly variant rainfall pattern
resulting in scattered incidents of flash flooding overnight.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_yMbKuqR-e7d7sKqPNw_G-AL1eLFqdnLf-d_vov8B6wRoUxvkp5L8n8GikXRHdVpSuvJ= Wn5O2RWDIQbt_MG4Xb8sd5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38229763 37959602 37539537 36979526 36529543=20
36229603 36149709 36199823 36349917 36979966=20
37519987 38019910=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231000
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-231500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northwest Missouri...Far
Southeast Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231000Z - 231500Z

SUMMARY...Broad scale over-turning of remaining unstable air will
have short-term rates of up to 2"/hr and localized totals to 2-3"
in 1-3 hours, resulting in possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts broad diffluent region
downstream of strengthening deep layer cyclone over the central
Rockies. An embedded shortwave is sharpening and vertically
stretching within the divergent pattern aloft, providing solid
DPVA across northeast KS into far southeast NEB and northwest MO.
This area has remained conditionally unstable and capped through
the early overnight period with broad 2000 J/kg MUCAPE reservoir
along and southwest of the Missouri River Valley.

Outflow boundary and southward sinking cold front out of IA and
east-central NEB initially provided sufficient convergence along
the northeast edge of the instability core and rapid expansion has
occurred over the last hour or so as southwesterly WAA has further
impinged on the area. Strong ascent and ample deep layer moisture
has supported localized rates of 1.5-2"/hr and with very
slow/stationary cell motions, generally only moving due to
outflow/propagation, an hour or so of intense rainfall may again
result in widely scattered 2-3" totals in 1-3 hours.=20

Additionally, as the southern stream shortwave melds with the
northern stream feature, effectively elongating the mid-level
trough toward a longer negative tilt orientation, but also
strengthened southwesterly flow and deep layer convergence with
the core of the southerly LLJ and effective moisture flux.=20
Leading edge convergence is also building a west to east oriented
arc of thunderstorms along the southwestern edge of the unstable
air, slow northward migration and intersection with the convective
outflow from the northwest will see a larger slab ascent with
broad overturning of the remaining 1.5-1.75" total Pwats in the
column and likely result in similar hourly rates up to 2"/hr but
likely to diminish quickly thereafter, likely resulting in widely
scattered pockets of 2-3" totals further southwest across
northeast KS toward the KC Metro. The sheer rates may result in
localized flash flooding conditions, especially near urban
centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4pdf2qDoqkSdexjFO5QAtESE9qpn9JhQgDznwHGojPUQ9CdjCkId2y0f3Gli7Z4kI3Fj= CNK4mAUJtxG9CDmo2NPoxhI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 40709689 40639608 40299516 39759444 39249384=20
38599419 38469488 38769571 39159679 39429830=20
40279804 40599744=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231210
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-231709-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Missouri, far northern Arkansas, far
northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231209Z - 231709Z

Summary...Isolated, spotty flash flood potential exists for a few
hours this morning (through 17Z/noon CDT).

Discussion...A loosely organized complex of storms was located
near the MOKSAROK (Missouri/Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas state border
region) this morning. The loosely organized nature of this
complex was favoring limited amounts of convective training -
particularly in southwestern Missouri where downstream
thunderstorm cells were developing along a warm front near the
region very close to the Springfield area. Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates were being detected/estimated per MRMS within the
region of training. Coincidentally, these rain rates were falling
across areas of the Missouri Ozarks that can be flood prone in
sensitive areas. With FFG thresholds in the 1.5 inch/hr range in
spots, any modest uptick in rain rates could cause isolated flash
flood issues in the short term.

The longevity of this flash flood risk is a bit in question,
however. As storms continue to move/propagate east, they will
eventually depart the region of greatest combined instability and
low-level convergence (currently focused along the OK/KS border).
Furthermore, radar data doesn't suggest that ongoing activity has
sufficient organization for persistence deeper into the
Missouri/Arkansas Ozarks east of the U.S. Highway 65 and 63
corridors - especially in the absence of any larger-scale ascent.=20
Thus - an already isolated flash flood risk may gradually become
more conditional with time and eastward extent across the
discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4YHEa8QUip9B0zHTI9fAaeoGmUgMGi9cFygNsngIv5YUOVxu6DX4SS7VFSQjub_tLoK-= CUm_kqXQ0K6SBPpkh6J0QUU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38359359 38089199 37389075 36539030 35999152=20
35829445 36369597 37399511 38219470=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231743
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-232342-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Missouri, western Arkansas, eastern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231742Z - 232342Z

Summary...Convective redevelopment is expected over the course of
the afternoon, with local areas of potentially significant flash
flooding expected.

Discussion...Strong convection continues in a relatively focused
band extending from just northeast of Fayetteville through Branson
currently. This band of convection is tied to a lead mid-level
wave over Missouri that should continue to lift slowly
northeastward and result in subtle subsidence across the
discussion area for at least an hour or two. These trends, along
with slackening low-level flow, suggest that a brief reprieve from
widespread flash flooding (outside of the aforementioned band) in
the short term.

Upstream, mid-level convection was already being agitated in part
due to an approaching mid-level wave evident in satellite imagery
across central Kansas/northern Oklahoma. Additionally, earlier
convection has left behind an outflow boundary across northeastern
Oklahoma and vicinity that connects to a surface low over
north-central Oklahoma. Each of these features (low-level
convergence, mid-level ascent) should result in a redevelopment of
deep convection over the course of the afternoon - though it may
take some time for deeper convection to materialize. The airmass
south of the outflow remains abundantly moist and unstable (2 inch
PW values, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE). As convection redevelops,
localized training should result in 2+ inch/hr rain rates that
could result in significant flash flooding - especially if the
rainfall occurs in 1) areas that received 2-4 inch rain amounts
earlier today (southwestern Missouri, far northwestern Arkansas),
and 2) across portions of the Arkansas River Valley that have
received 2-8 inches of rain over the past 48 hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7rI1I6QlvWvbXX1rE5i0akfkIrAZYFQzvaJwiAevoq_O2ATKzQ99ggbhtq1B15DBKfRB= 9ZYXNadGAfS70RMA7a_sIu4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37969309 37239185 35349188 34269259 34149522=20
34919639 36099646 36809616 37599486=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232346
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-240415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...eastern OK into AR and the MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 232343Z - 240415Z

Summary...Training cells will continue areas of flash flooding
from portions of eastern OK into and across AR to the MS Valley
into the early overnight. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches and
additional localized totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

Discussion...2330Z area radar imagery across the Ozarks into
southeastern OK showed a line of thunderstorms extending ahead of
a cold front in eastern OK, and just north of an outflow-enhanced quasi-stationary front which extended west to east through
north-central AR. Areas of training just south of the Boston
Mountains have been associated with gauge reports of 0.75 to 1.00
inches of rain in 15 minutes and 2+ inches in an hour with ongoing
areas of flash flooding from eastern OK into northwestern AR.

Water vapor imagery showed the leading edge of a shortwave trough
moving east from MO into eastern OK with diffluent flow aloft just
downstream across southern MO and AR. Additional cells, though
isolated, were noted across the 4-state region (MOKSAROK) in
conjunction with the shortwave, with portions of southwestern MO
and northwestern AR having received 72 hour rainfall totals of 2
to 8+ inches (per MRMS estimates). While these cells are moving
into an environment largely worked over, relatively steep lapse
rates could support an isolated core with 1+ inches of rain.
Meanwhile, 850 mb winds ahead of the slow moving cold front were
15-25 kt from the SW, overrunning the outflow/stationary front
across AR with west to east storm motions supporting training. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 23Z indicated plenty of instability with
2000-3000 MLCAPE across eastern OK into western AR along with
PWATs near 2 inches, supportive of high rain rates with this
environment continuing through at least 04Z with minimal CIN.

As the mid-level shortwave continues to advance east, the surface
response will support a slow eastward push to the surface cold
front with cell motions generally toward the east but with
potential for upstream development and continued training
potential. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in a few
location along with isolated 3 to 5 inch additional rainfall
maxima through 04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7lVsWVr0RTiCk-IP4eBt-5wdkDiuGDLA77gMOcfChsNeuepdQzAt3nxeyy7Q2neW3Bil= EfrnvvHpJLxy-wxx2B60Pdg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36649429 36569361 35999249 35989145 35638979=20
34868983 34629068 34299182 33959388 34049490=20
34309522 34699543 35189541 35769518 36229468=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240147
FFGMPD
KSZ000-240730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240145Z - 240730Z

SUMMARY...Brief training/repeating/backbuilding of showers and
thunderstorms may result in a localized flash flood threat over
portions of western KS over the next several hours. Hourly
rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East water vapor showed a closed low over
eastern CO/western KS embedded within the base of a sharply
positively tilted longwave trough that extended into the Great
Lakes and eastern Canada. Radar imagery and gauge reports showed
moderate to locally heavy rainfall occurring to the north and east
of a 700-500 mb low along the northern CO/KS border, including a
north-south oriented tail of rain extending toward the south over
western KS. This axis aligned within a low level confluent flow
regime and weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) axis. Mean westerly
winds were found in the deeper layer flow, supporting individual
cell motions toward the east, but the pattern will favor
regeneration of cells within the low level convergence axis over
the next few hours. In addition, left-exit region divergence is
present over the region, tied to a 70-90 kt jet max located from
northern NM into the southern High Plains, which should aid in
vertical ascent over western KS.

The environment will be supportive of 1 to 2 inch hourly totals
due to the potential for brief training/repeating/backbuilding of
cells (slow net movement) but modest moisture (standardized PW
anomalies of +1 to +2) and only weak instability should preclude
higher rainfall rates. Portions of western KS have received well
above average rainfall over the past week (400 to 600+ percent of
normal) with above average soil moisture values leading to a
potentially increased threat flash flood on a localized basis
given low flash flood guidance values of less than 2 inches in 3
hours for portions of the region. The flash flood threat is
expected to slowly translate south as the mid-level trough axis
and low level forcing shift south over the next 6 hours as
forecast by the RAP.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6pIWIJ7BEUMvmUTl6T2nKXh1HPDRkRwTOgoD0ao4ZUMFltBgTntVzK7pQKyLQaJU0Iz0= DdzqJmYp7-_46ubc7euIQ94$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39870121 39830088 39610053 38940006 37539979=20
37140000 37080064 37130099 37320120 37680143=20
38300170 39040181 39500179 39690173 39820159=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240306
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1128
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1105 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...Much of Arkansas...Southeast Oklahoma...Far
Northeast Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240310Z - 240900Z

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms capable of 1.5-1.75"/hr, likely
to repeat through areas of saturated soils with scattered pockets
of additional 2-4" totals, likely resulting in new incidents of or
continue ongoing flash flooding through the overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts broad core of deep upper low
well upstream over the Colorado High Plains dropping southeast;
while a broad elongated mid-level dry slot across centered along
the KS/OK border extending through MO into the Midwest. This has
resulted in a regionally flat mid-level shear axis along and north
of the area of concern. The warm conveyor belt of enhanced deep,
overlapping moisture axis remains very active with large clusters
of cold cirrus shield mainly over SW AR, with only a few
overshooting tops dotting along the moisture axis into far SW
TN/NW MS.

As such, the surface to low level environment remains aligned with
the warm conveyor. A weak surface to 850mb low is exiting NE OK
into the Ozark Plateau, with upstream cold advection occurring
across E OK. This sharpening has increased convergence along a
remaining axis of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE supporting a secondary
increase in convective vigor and coverage upstream of the initial
band that is slowly eroding and becoming more scattered in nature
across central AR toward the TN/MS line. With additional
development upstream of areas already flooded across NW AR and E
OK, additional 2-3" totals due to 1.5"/hr rates is likely to
maintain ongoing flooding situations.

However, further southwest, the reservoir of remaining
unstable/unmixed air across the Red River Valley has a bit broader
instability axis to work with and thunderstorms are just that bit
stronger with tops below -70C. 500-1000mb thickness depicts a
broadening divergence suggesting weakening propagation vectors,
slowly backing upstream to suggest some back-building may occur
over the coming hours. This clustering/expansion will increase
mergers, short-term training across far SE OK/SW AR into far
northern TX. Slightly higher moisture flux convergence will also
support rates of 1.75"/hr, occasionally and locally peaking over
2"/hr. As such spots of 2-4" are becoming more likely. The area
has not seen the heavier rain over the last week or so, as further
north, so grounds are a bit more accepting of these higher totals;
given FFG values of 2-3"/hr or 3-4"/3hrs, suggesting incidents of
flash flooding will still be more scattered in nature/coverage
than further north, but a few incidents are still likely (with the
only exception near Montague to Grayson county, TX).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!44jtdujgBJ1BR-OWzjRm12Isx_zZyOiDd0-tIodVhFT_r9EPUHV_w59ZlRPmW7XyDPW3= j0Q9impEEnprN8J13F1okbo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36099332 35609171 34979117 34089141 33419292=20
33149393 33009526 33099734 33709764 34529643=20
35339522 36079432=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240842
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1129
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
441 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Areas affected...Southern AR...Northern LA...Far Western MS...Ext
Southeast OK...Ext Northeast TX...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240840Z - 241415Z

SUMMARY...Strong moisture flux and rates over 2"/hr with
short-term training poses streaks of 2-4" totals and possible
incidents of flash flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic continues to show stronger
clusters of thunderstorms extending west to east along older
convectively reinforced boundaries across central to southern AR
and into NW MS. Broad southwesterly LLJ continues to flux
enhanced lower level anomalous moisture to intersect with the
boundary to maintain isentropic ascent, to tap skinny but still
unstable profiles with 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE. The southwesterly
flux combined with very slow southward drift of the boundary has
allowed for overall moisture profile to reach 2-2.25" total PWat
values and raise warm cloud layers a few extra thousand feet,
increasingly efficient warm cloud rainfall generation, supporting
rates of 2-2.5"/hr.=20

GOES-E WV suite shows base of the main core, upper-low continuing
to advance across the TX Panhandle, this has delayed the
advancement of the cold front across eastern OK, further allowing
the length of the isentropic ascent to be long enough to allow for repeating/training for those scattered clusters. LLJ winds are
expected to increase to 25-30kts but also veer a bit more to
reduce angle of intersection with the effective isentropic
boundary toward daybreak and may further reduce overall coverage.
Still, the deep layer steering flow will be just a bit south of
due east allowing for short-term training/repeating to remain
across southern Arkansas and far Northern Louisiana and perhaps
into far western MS after 12z. Streaks of 2-4" are possible but
this will also be crossing areas that have been dry for a
prolonged period and higher FFG values in general.

NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm relative soil moisture values are generally
below 30% with some as low as 10% in main river valleys. Intense
rates initially up to 2.5"/hr may not have much time to infiltrate
and could have above normal run off, so any flash flooding
incidents are likely to be more widely scattered in nature and
therefore the risk is considered possible through 14z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-fBZGZfQ8KmwaZf1e3ZpdkCGVGFkwPwh4oASsTypnjtvIng4Z5YvxODWCTZ66vXGtinp= -ltHPoal8_P6C_DTFXjT89I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34589183 34159116 33239042 32699067 32609141=20
32609301 32999465 33659507 34059491 34409418=20
34289297=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241348
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-241900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1130
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Texas through far Western Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241347Z - 241900Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue into
the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the Northwest. This
convection will likely have rain rates of 2-3"/hr, which through
training or repeating could produce 2-4" of rain and instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows clusters
of thunderstorms advancing across portions of Louisiana, Arkansas,
and eastern Texas. These thunderstorms are developing ahead of a
cold front analyzed by WPC moving across Texas, with outflow
boundaries from prior thunderstorms driving additional ascent.
Synoptically, deep layer ascent is also intensifying across the
region as a longwave trough digs slowly across Oklahoma driving
height falls, while a jet streak arcs from the Southern Plains
into the Appalachians, providing favorable diffluence within the
RRQ. Additionally, a wave of low pressure moving along the cold
front is resulting in locally accelerated 850mb winds measured to
25-35 kts, providing not only enhanced convergence, but driving
more impressive moisture northeast into the region.

Thermodynamics remain impressive as well. PWs as measured by GPS
and morning 12Z U/A soundings are around 2 inches, above the 90th
percentile from the SPC sounding climatology, which is overlapped
with MUCAPE as much as 3000 J/kg. The impressive ascent into these
robust thermodynamics is producing rainfall rates that are
estimated via local radars to be more than 2.5"/hr, resulting in
MRMS 1-hr rainfall that has been as high as 2-3" across parts of
AR.

As the morning progresses, the slow translation east of the cold
front and accompanying wave of low pressure into the favorable
environment should result in an expansion and intensification of
convection, especially from eastern TX into the ArkLaTex region.
Although the CAMs differ highly in their evolution and rainfall
footprint, recent convective development across eastern TX
suggests that activity will ramp up again, and both the HREF
neighborhood probabilities and the HRRR 15-min rainfall
accumulations indicate rates will surge at times to 2-3"/hr,
locally and briefly up to 4"/hr.

With 0-6km mean winds aligned to the front, and Corfidi vectors
becoming increasingly anti-parallel to this mean wind, at least
short term training is likely the next several hours. Although
recent rainfall has been modest which is reflected by anomalously
dry soils according to NASA SPoRT, any significant training of
these intense rates could result in instances of flash flooding
the next several hours.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!572e6vx4cbw-JQokAdKt_aOfli4n5MxOU8P-IqRKdBxKoPTfdOp9zBRhBSWovxtJ4UBG= o3Vq8fOUoN2_HrwVI4pCkGo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34549143 33539057 32979068 32539137 32119234=20
31769341 31209480 30829545 30719646 31179695=20
31879662 32909532 34369316=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241740
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast through southern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241739Z - 242300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand across
the Central Gulf Coast this aftn. Rainfall rates will likely reach
2-3+"/hr at times, leading to stripes of 2-4" of rainfall. This
may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this aftn shows
rapidly expanding coverage of reflectivity associated with
increasing showers and thunderstorms from the Middle Texas Coast
through southern Mississippi. This activity is blossoming
downstream of a cold front that is slowly dropping southeast,
driven by an elongated longwave trough axis diving through the
Southern Plains. This evolution is driving subsequent downstream
jet streak formation, leading to favorable RRQ diffluence aloft.
Additionally, spokes of shortwave energy rotating through the
trough axis are providing additionally focused ascent.

This widespread deep layer lift is impinging into a destabilizing
environment reflected by recent SPC RAP analyzed SBCAPE of
2500-3500 J/kg. This instability is combining with impressive
moisture (PWs of 2-2.2 inches as measured by GPS) to produce an
environment ripe for heavy rainfall production. This is being
realized by the expansion of convection, and recent
radar-estimated rain rates have peaked above 1.5"/hr, despite
current cells featuring relatively small updrafts with short
temporal lifespans (pulse variety convection).

As the aftn progresses, the high-res guidance is in good agreement
that thunderstorm coverage will expand across most of the area,
and recent HRRR runs have shown an increasing trend in coverage.
This is likely supported by the more favorable overlap of ascent
into the rich thermodynamic airmass this aftn, as the trough and
accompanying cold front continue to expand southward.
Thunderstorms that develop will also be supported by increasing
bulk shear to help organize into clusters. This should have the
dual-pronged effect of creating heavier rain rates (HREF
neighborhood probabilities peak around 40% for 2"/hr coincident
with 15-min HRRR rainfall as much as 1", or brief 4"/hr rates)
while also leading to longer duration of this rainfall.
Additionally, with 850mb inflow remaining out of the Gulf to
resupply favorable thermodynamics, propagation vectors collapse to
around 5 kts and veer more to the north, indicating that storms
will be slower moving and may build south along the TX coast.

Where clusters of storms move slowest or backbuild/train, these
intense rainfall rates could produce 2-4" of rain (HREF 6-hr
rainfall probabilities for 3" above 40%). This will be sufficient
to produce rapid runoff even atop the relatively dry antecedent
soils. While the greatest threat for impacts will occur where
heavy rain falls atop urban areas, any training or repeating of
these rain rates across this area could result in instances of
flash flooding into this evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_zRYIjj0FnOKPOPdWsofhDiO5Tk0fu2rbnBSPvxZt-6moVXQLnEfhWe4TkXBjQZbacQj= VgeYiIcPKq64JIi0A94N8rg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33139065 33088902 32388871 31468919 30378971=20
30008992 29769040 29679116 29749201 29869315=20
29709382 29489434 29239489 29029541 28909600=20
29089656 29699573 30179528 30739486 31499392=20
32729179=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242025
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Areas affected...lower to mid-MS Valley into northwestern TN and
KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242023Z - 250130Z

Summary...At least an isolated flash flood threat will evolve
through this evening from the lower/middle MS Valley into
northwestern TN and KY. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected through 01Z.

Discussion...Radar trends over the past hour have shown an
increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms from
northeastern AR into southeastern MO and western KY. These storms
were forming along a quasi-stationary front and just ahead of a
positively tilted mid to upper-level trough axis located over
IL/MO into northeastern OK as observed on water vapor imagery.
Filtered sunshine and anomalous PWAT values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches
have contributed to MLCAPE of 500 to 1000+ J/kg via 20Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.

850 mb winds of 20 to 30 kt were observed across the lower MS
Valley into northern MS/southwestern TN via VAD wind data, just
ahead of the base of the mid-level trough. As the trough axis
advances eastward through the evening, the region of locally
stronger low level winds are forecast by the RAP to expand
northeastward into TN/KY, aiding with axes of low level
convergence (in addition to the surface front and resultant
outflows). This will occur beneath a divergent pattern aloft
within the right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt jet at 250 mb
expanding northeastward from MO/IL. The result should be an
increase in thunderstorm coverage, especially over the
lower/middle MS Valley with areas of training from SW to NE.
Within axes of training, hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be
likely with potential areas of flash flooding from 2 to 4 inches
of storm total rainfall through 01Z to 02Z. Given somewhat meager
instability and low level winds into KY/TN, the response is not
expected to be well organized or widespread with any instances of
flash flooding most likely remaining isolated to widely scattered.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9P6K1YSV1g-oYcsPKuRKvFlzLvYcIb1lOcX1ZD2dHC2KZTFTB8T6nspZU7uxLQV6Q9Ts= fKocw4fFrIkTggaDdrCiav0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38178393 37948310 37498279 37148314 36848430=20
36318687 35898854 35299000 35149152 35749202=20
36899120 37788852 38108581=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250128
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-250700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
927 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Areas affected...far northwestern TN into most of KY to the OH
River

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250127Z - 250700Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding may continue across far
northwestern TN into most of KY to the OH River through 07Z.
Periods of training/slow net movement of heavy rain cores will
support hourly totals of 1 to 2+ inches and possible isolated
totals of 2 to 4 inches.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 01Z showed scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms extending from southeastern MO
into northwestern TN and western/central KY, near a
quasi-stationary front which was analyzed near the OH River. A
number of smaller scale mesovortices were noted within this axis,
one just west of I-65 in central KY and another over southern KY
to the southwest of HVC. While overall instability was generally
weak across the OH Valley, with 00Z soundings from ILN and BNA
showing less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE, pockets of higher instability
(though still weak) likely remained over portions of TN/KY. One of
the bigger drivers in a lingering flash flood threat is the
anomalous moisture in place with PWAT values between 1.6 and 2.0
inches (00Z BNA sounding and SPC mesoanalysis), supportive of
efficient rainfall production with MRMS-derived rates of 1 to 2
in/hr (locally higher) since 22Z.

Forcing ahead of a slow moving mid-level trough/low over MO and
associated shortwave trough will continue to support showers and
thunderstorms through a good portion of the overnight for the OH
Valley. As the shortwave spoke over MO advances eastward into the
OH Valley through 12Z areas of heavy rain will clear from west to
east. Embedded pockets of heavy rain are expected within lingering
elevated instability pools and/or near transient mesovortices,
with lift being augmented through divergence and diffluence aloft
within the right-entrance region of an upper jet max currently
over IN/OH. Within axes of training, hourly rainfall will continue
to peak in the 1 to 2 inch range (locally higher possible) along
with additional storm totals of 2 to 4 inches through 07Z.
Localized flash flooding may result, especially if there is
overlap with urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7iG0BeSVrc8-e8U2NIiwia8yQ1ZpFR7PuWCUkyHAp5UPY2t8HzoFNl9e48hQO_6Qpx-T= YaSnQxf9400Q2L7JM9sTT8A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39038267 38678217 38078287 37148386 36618525=20
36298684 36098851 36078929 36418952 37188883=20
38048683 38848449=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250716
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-251300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1134
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern KY/WV...southern
OH...southwestern PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250715Z - 251300Z

Summary...Localized hourly 1-2" rainfall expected to result in
additional 2-4" totals, in the vicinity of recent localized 1-3"
rainfall over the past few hours. Isolated to scattered instances
of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Showers with embedded thunderstorms have continued in
the vicinity of a quasi-stationary front draped from southwest to
northeast across the OH Valley. A deepening (but weak) wave of low
pressure along the front is approaching an area of recent
localized training (1-2" estimated hourly totals per MRMS) near
the far eastern OH/KY border, fueled by a trailing mid- to
upper-level shortwave/PV anomaly (evident via GOES-East water
vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis). The leading edge of
moisture transport situated between 300-305K isentropes (~850 mb
isobaric surface) is only just moving into the OH/KY/WV border
region, as the low-level jet nears peak strength at 30-40 kts.
This suggests that embedded hourly 1-2" totals will likely
continue for at least the next several hours, training near recent
1-3" totals in already sensitive hilly to mountainous terrain
(with 3-hr FFGs, Flash Flood Guidance, generally ranging from only
1.0-2.0"). Recent hi-res guidance supports the idea of additional
localized 2-4" totals, suggesting isolated to scattered instances
of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Aw_vEfG7FFGaSxd4hr9Wq9tNCJL1Mwli-GymTVjIsxs7osraLU9emLxSXg275LTpFAb= QJ-LnTPJVZrT6mUY1I_cXeA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40898023 39507946 38588062 38038300 38158379=20
38498393 38778366 39178306 39788228=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251303
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-251702-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1135
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
903 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...western/central Pennsylvania, far southeastern
Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251302Z - 251702Z

Summary...Deep convection should migrate eastward across western
and central Pennsylvania this morning, producing areas of 1-2
inches of rainfall (locally higher). These amounts may cause
flash flooding especially in populated and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Deep convection was being maintained across
southeastern Ohio this morning due to strong forcing for ascent
aloft with mid-level waves traversing the region. Latest MRMS
estimated of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates were noted particularly with a
cluster of cells near Wheeling, WV. These cells were moving
eastward at an appreciable clip, but were still embedded in just
enough instability aloft (around 250 J/kg MUCAPE) and abundant
moisture (1.8 inch PW) to support heavy rainfall. These cells
should impact the Pittsburgh Metro area over the next couple
hours, and if rain rates persist as they are currently, at least a
few instances of flash flooding are possible.

Over time, convection is expected to continue spreading eastward,
with multiple rounds of rain rates of at least 0.25-0.5 inch/hr
expected. Localized areas of hourly rates exceeding 1 inch/hr are
also possible at times. FFG thresholds are in the 1-1.25 inch/hr
range and exceedence is likely on at least an isolated basis.=20
Flash flooding is possible in this regime - particularly in
low-lying and urbanized areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4hE2zsVbw4s659OivZb8zifpnq8tFG3kLmqkaiCb0qaria4T--OhaUzjYU26t5vMcKW4= 9TCQhHGnBgeEdJsI3evHzAo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41577859 40907814 39897891 39338143 40858150=20
41258051=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251856
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-260050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1136
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251854Z - 260050Z

Summary...Training axes of heavy rain are expected from the
northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England through the
late afternoon and evening. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches may
result in localized flash flooding with a focus on any urban
centers.

Discussion...Radar imagery at 1845Z helped identify a pair of MCVs
over the Northeast, embedded within areas of largely stratiform
rain from portions of PA into New England. One vortex over central
PA and the other near Albany, NY, were tied to surges of higher
rainfall rates, with MRMS-derived values between 1 and 2 inches in
an hour at times. These two features were located along the
northern edges of a region of elevated CAPE with 500-1500 MUCAPE
identified on 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data. The environment was
characterized by anomalous moisture with PW values of roughly 1.7
to 2.0 inches (2 to 3 standardized anomalies above the mean for
late September), supportive of hourly rainfall locally in excess
of 2 inches.

As a cold front over central NY/PA and the aforementioned
mesoscale waves continue to advance downstream, interaction with
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from southeastern PA into far southern New
England will support an increase in rainfall coverage and rates
from the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Some
breaks in cloud cover noted on visible imagery over southeastern
PA into NJ may help to locally increase instability through better
surface heating, yielding greater potential for higher intensity
rainfall. While individual cell motions should remain progressive
toward the NE, alignment of convective axes with the southwesterly
deep-layered steering flow will promote training and locally 1 to
2+ inches of rain in an hour at times. These locally higher rates
could result in a relatively quick accumulation of rainfall
totaling 2 to 3+ inches through 01Z. Localized flash flooding may
occur as a result, especially if overlap occurs with impervious
urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7qyxmCwKpVstv3jN3fWwdyMQipUMRXzIhAqbmAEL2oR2LO2905s5-kjeFo6cNeEXp8M6= 6v4dkwIDL3tkbvHKIqKkVYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CTP...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44247137 43667053 43137030 42647034 42237087=20
41847183 41297270 40817343 40227422 39927557=20
39917773 40897709 42027600 42747491 43117379=20
43807248=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251942
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-260130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...central to southeastern AZ into southwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251939Z - 260130Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to result in a few
areas of flash flooding from central and southeastern AZ into
southwestern NM through early evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
will be likely within the stronger cores.

Discussion...Visible satellite and area radar imagery showed the
rapid development of thunderstorms over north-central to
southeastern AZ over the past hour. The storms overlapped within
an anomalous low to mid-level moisture axis seen on LPW imagery,
located east of a dry tongue which existed over southern CA into
southern NV. Favorable surface heating beneath mostly clear skies
and the anomalous PW axis (+1 to +2 standardized anomalies) have
led to 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE via 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data (~1100
J/kg via 18Z TUS sounding) over a large portion of the MPD area.

Steering flow varied across the region but was oriented from the
SSW to W and was stronger across northern regions compared to
locations closer to the Mexican border. Mid-level height falls and
upper level left-exit region jet max divergence, at the nose of a
zonally oriented jet streak moving into northern Baja California,
should aid in lift across the region later this afternoon. The
environment will support scattered thunderstorms increasing
through the evening with brief training and outflow interactions
as storm coverage increases. 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour (or
less) should be found within the stronger thunderstorm cores that
develop and is expected to result in at least isolated flash
flooding into the early evening.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6oje_8QJMjjKuArnunfaQn1FApIpa7M3iTh5gDWrUxTJgXgoaqCgwwYgFIHmazke7Q4g= mTqL1XAh1CmatsvDW4Cto_Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35441210 35141068 34260919 33150779 32580722=20
31660702 31120790 31090952 31261079 31661115=20
32671115 33991164 35131245=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252025
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-260215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1138
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...Sierra Nevada into portions of central NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252023Z - 260215Z

SUMMARY...Intense heavy rain cores are expected to result in at
least isolated flash flooding into the afternoon and early evening
hours from the Sierra Nevada into portions of central NV. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected but with sub-hourly totals
of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible satellite imagery and ENTLN
lightning data showed a few widely scattered thunderstorms from
the Sierra Nevada into portions of south-central NV. The storms
were located to the north and east of the 700 mb reflection of a
mid-level low over CA, with highly anomalous moisture (2 to 3+
standardize PW anomalies) extending from the low center into much
of NV. VAD wind data at 700 mb and RAP guidance showed 20-30 kt
wind speeds at 700 mb over the lower CO River Valley into southern
NV but weakening to ~10 kt over central and western NV (some
degree of speed convergence).

Deeper layer mean wind speeds were weak (<10 kt) under and north
of the mid-level low which will result in slow cell motions.
Placement of the mid-level low to the west of the Sierra Nevada
and southerly flow to its east, aligned with the orientation of
the Sierra Nevada range will likely result in some repeating
rounds of thunderstorms across the higher terrain where 500-1000
J/kg of instability is forecast to expand by later this afternoon.
Farther to the east, from western to central NV, favorable
unidirectional southerly flow will increase the potential for
training and brief backbuilding of cells where locally stronger
low level flow exists. Due to the anomalous moisture in place,
both areas of CA and NV will have the potential for high rainfall
rates, hourly totals of 1 to 2 inches and 0.5 to 1.0 inches in
15-30 minutes, which should result in at least isolated areas of
flash flooding into the evening hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_nZGtwH_GXyul5EIDi8z1LU22llk81oAmhDmVrjBphJ_-ppZR8Z6Gytx8F2BTSt-WyXv= EPAlC_RBSuEqhOHi3m7piPQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...REV...STO...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39871830 39761745 39141638 37841613 37041697=20
36121781 35801851 35881877 36341898 36751920=20
37171968 37512003 37962031 38332050 38912031=20
39431975 39761896=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261604
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-262130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast NV...Northwest to Central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261603Z - 262130Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms
can be expected over the next few hours. Slow cell-motions and
localized backbuilding of convective cells will promote sufficient
rainfall concerns for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding to be possible going through mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/WV suite shows a compact and
relatively strong mid to upper-level low center dropping
east-southeastward down across southeast CA. Left-exit region jet
dynamics pivoting up across central to northwest AZ around the
eastern flank of this closed low is already interacting with a
nose of moderate instability pooling around the southwest-facing
slopes of the Mogollon Rim and adjacent areas of central AZ. The
result over the last couple of hours has been a corridor of
cooling convective tops, with radar data showing pockets of
backbuilding convective cells near and over top of the higher
terrain.

SBCAPE values are locally on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and
additional boundary layer destabilization via solar insolation
over the next few hours will contribute to an additional uptick in
convective coverage with showers and thunderstorms becoming a bit
more focused over the Mogollon Rim and adjacent areas just to the
south over central AZ. A well established corridor of strong
850/700 mb moisture flux anomalies are aligned with the deeper
layer south-southwest flow riding up across southern and central
AZ to the east of the closed low center, with these anomalies
reaching 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. This will
facilitate the expansion of convection along with a favorable
regime for backbuilding cells.

Farther off to the northwest across northwest AZ and adjacent
areas of far southeast NV, convection will be developing here over
the next few hours as a mid-level deformation zone north of the
closed low becomes better established. A destabilizing boundary
layer coupled with terrain-influenced circulations will help
further support convective development.

Rainfall rates with the convection across the region will be
capable of reaching 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger cells,
and with slow cell-motions and some backbuilding cells, there may
be some storm totals through mid-afternoon that region 2 to 2.5
inches. This is consistent with the latest 12Z HREF guidance.

Given the setup, isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding
will be possible, and this threat is expected to continue
throughout much of the day. Additional MPDs will be issued
accordingly.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-DbPkAA0-R7L4BdeFk7FxNiGA5fR2J9USSaEG5r6qM0kzQ9t5yJ7n9cbhrEPBD3-VyZ3= nKcv1yFZLaWba0vs0qqLKOs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37241454 37071344 36491210 35751003 34670911=20
33730917 33100985 32991121 33431260 34501353=20
34901453 35621545 36331577 36971536=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261847
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southeast AZ...Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261845Z - 270045Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon will likely drive scattered to numerous areas of
flash flooding. Locally significant and life-threatening impacts
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms across central AZ to the southwest of the Mogollon
Rim and to the north of Phoenix, with additional areas of
convection also seen developing off to the east and southeast
across southeast AZ. All of this convection is developing and
expanding in coverage in response to the arrival of a compact
closed low over southeast CA which is allowing for notably
divergent flow aloft downstream across central and southern AZ
while also interacting with a strongly unstable and moist boundary
layer.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg with 850/700mb
moisture flux anomalies of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal
across the region ahead of the approaching height falls. As
additional boundary layer heating ensues across the region, there
will likely be additional expansion of convection which is
expected to become locally quite concentrated across portions of
central to southeast AZ. In time this afternoon, convection is
also expected to develop farther off to the east into areas of
southwest NM, which will have the aid of orographic ascent and
differential heating boundaries to support convective development.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and the environment is highly conducive for
pockets of slow-moving cells and backbuilding convection. This may
support some rainfall totals reaching 2 to 4 inches by late this
afternoon. This is generally supported by the latest HREF/REFS
guidance suites.

Given the coverage and intensity of the convection that is
expected to unfold this afternoon, scattered to numerous areas of
flash flooding are expected. This will include concerns for
enhanced dry wash/arroyo flash flooding along with potential for
areal burn scar impacts. Urban flash flooding will also be a
possibility including locations such as Phoenix, Tuscon and
Safford. Thus, locally significant and life-threatening impacts
will be possible where these heavier rains materialize over the
next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ZnUcNqjMcMtxd7B7uzBHV7R59cx426Q6EmeUoLpra_febM6hg8lxqJq-jhapBGmxJwk= H6m270gD4kLpom0IjSTkYpQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35021202 34541068 34470938 34600731 33260674=20
31730756 31150855 31020977 31131108 31611178=20
32301208 33061239 34221308 34871279=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262131
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-270330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CA...Southeast NV...Southwest
UT...Northwest AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262130Z - 270330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be a threat going
into the evening hours across portions of eastern CA, southeast
NV, southwest UT and northwest AZ. Additional isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
cold-topped convective clusters impacting northwest AZ along with
southwest UT. Radar imagery shows this activity gradually
beginning to cyclonically advance westward into portions of far
southern NV and with some cells attempting to develop over far
eastern CA. The convection across this region is largely focused
within a well-defined mid-level deformation zone situated north of
a closed mid to upper-level low center across eastern CA.

A corridor of focused moisture convergence is seen wrapping up
around the eastern and northern flanks of the closed low, and
there is an axis of MLCAPE values reaching 500 to 1000 J/kg nosing
up through northwest AZ and into far southeast NV. This coupled
with deep layer ascent/forcing north of the closed low should help
maintain a threat for convection going into the evening hours.
Overall, far northwest AZ should tend to see the greatest threat
over the next few hours, but areas of southern NV and eastern CA
will likely see more development of showers and thunderstorms
given close proximity of the closed low. This is consistent with
the latest runs of the experimental WoFS guidance.

The moisture environment is relatively moist with PW anomalies of
1 to 2 standard deviations above normal. This coupled with the
larger scale ascent and instability should maintain convective
cells capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour.
Additional rainfall totals locally of up to 2 inches will be
possible by late this evening where some of these cells tend to be
slow-moving or anchored near terrain.

Additional isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible as a result going through this evening. This will include
potential impacts to any burn scar locations along with the
normally sensitive slot canyons and dry washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6A3ai2NIo4VpwyFwvySxD1vFN7nCkXNx8SpimzhhlzabtE4BIOz_C1KTNaaP9Dhprq2i= tLqM40gfidN9QyRZN_GFx2Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37911254 37681175 36991175 36001260 35181288=20
34451317 33511359 33171437 33251529 33811597=20
34971616 35791604 36511573 37231505 37741396=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262348
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-270545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1142
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
747 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Areas affected...Western NC...Southwest to South-Central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262347Z - 270545Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms may become a bit
more focused going into the overnight hours. High rainfall rates
and slow cell-motions may result in isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough gradually advancing into the
Southeast U.S. will be interacting with a moist and unstable
airmass this evening pooling up along a quasi-stationary front
situated across the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians
and southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Surface
observations show a wave of low pressure developing along this
boundary over southwest NC which is gradually lifting off to the
northeast.

This surface wave is being facilitated by the gradual
amplification of height falls across the region which is promoting
a southwest to northeast axis of right-entrance region upper jet
dynamics and related deep layer ascent. MLCAPE values of 500 to
1000 J/kg are pooled ahead of this wave along the front across
western NC and some uptick in low-level moisture convergence into
the boundary is expected over the next several hours.

An increase in the concentration of convection along the front is
expected across western NC and eventually parts of southwest to
south-central VA going into the overnight hours as stronger upper
jet forcing and strengthening frontogenesis takes place. The
pooling of moisture and at least modest instability will be
maintained as well, and some of the convection will be capable of
producing high rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour.

The higher rates will be supported by a gradual increase in PWs
which are already near 1.5 inches, and with increasing potential
for warm rain processes to take place going into the overnight
hours. Moderate effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts will also
promote at least some loosely organized convective cells in close
proximity to the front which will further support elevated
rainfall rates.

Hires model CAMs going through 06Z/2AM EDT suggest rainfall totals
of as much as 2 to 4+ inches at least locally. This may support
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, and especially
across portions of northwest NC into southwest VA where antecedent
conditions are relatively moist.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!90yAwvX8v-WxaAj_C9qZbPnkJLnBAfhujoJAb7j5KfiJ5UvQkRcyMaZ4cCycFfxsHg8N= Nda4MXSitxhU-0zc5cUhogs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37407935 37367865 36957807 36447834 35917948=20
35538017 35308069 35298131 35588190 36138199=20
36898105 37308008=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270032
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-270630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1143
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270030Z - 270630Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will persist
into the evening hours across central to southeast AZ. Additional
areas of flash flooding will be likely with locally considerable
and life-threatening impacts still possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows clusters
of cold-topped convection continuing to develop and locally
persist across areas of central to southeast AZ. Some of the
strongest convection and heaviest rainfall rates are currently
over portions of Pinal and Gila Counties. This is also where some
of the strongest low-level moisture convergence and pooling of
instability remains in place.

MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted in general across
south-central AZ, and this coupled with larger scale
ascent/forcing associated with the slow approach of an upstream
closed low over eastern CA should continue to favor convection
with high rainfall rates at least for the next few hours.

Gradually there will be an increase in boundary layer CIN as the
evening progresses which will allow for the convective footprint
to begin to wane, but with elevated effective bulk shear of 30 to
40 kts across central to southeast AZ, there may be some
persistence of loosely organized convection through much of the
evening time frame.

Rainfall rates will still be capable of reaching 1 to 2
inches/hour based on the latest cloud top cooling trends over
Pinal and Gila Counties, and the experimental WoFS guidance
supports this for at least a couple more hours.

Some additional spotty totals may reach 2 to 3 inches where any of
the stronger cells continue to backbuild or train over the same
area. This will likely foster some additional areas of flash
flooding for the evening hours. Once again, there will be concerns
for enhanced dry wash/arroyo flash flooding along with potential
for localized burn scar impacts and urban flash flooding where
these heavier rains evolve. Thus, locally considerable and
life-threatening impacts will still be possible for at least a few
more hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4m7wuMKk98wpo0VQFaL3CKxKu7EsAOZQy19fm31h8dXEqp9ERppsD0smd1BP5N1ZoMJx= wIiW4mM7n7aDKTloTVIR0_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34561110 34441041 33840945 32840904 31770912=20
31230956 31181081 31571162 32221201 32991225=20
33671232 34401195=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270556
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-271200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1144
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Areas affected...much of southern and central VA...portions of
northwestern NC and southeastern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270600Z - 271200Z

Summary...Training banded heavy rain with 1-2"/hr rates expected
to result in additional rainfall totals of 3-5" through 8 AM.
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic have consolidated into a
defined band of heavy rainfall over the past couple of hours. This
band extends a couple hundred miles across southern VA into
northwestern NC, paralleling a surface/low-level frontal boundary
and associated moisture gradient (PWs ranging from 1.5-2.0" across
the gradient, nearing the climatological max moving average at
GSO/RNK). MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is sufficient to sustain deep
convection, and strong upper-level dynamics (right-entrance region
of a jet streak with DPVA via shortwave trough/PV anomaly
upstream) along with modest easterly low-level moisture transport
could allow for localized training of 1-2"/hr rainfall rates.

While hi-res models overall have poorly handled the convective
organization since 00z, the latest HREF suite still indicates
relatively high odds (20-40%) for localized 3" exceedance through
12z (per 40-km neighborhood exceedance probabilities). Given that
banded heavy rainfall has already reached a level of organization
beyond model depictions, these probabilities could be underdone.
Expect that training of banded heavy rainfall lead to additional
rainfall totals of 3-5" with corresponding 3-6 hour Flash Flood
Guidance (FFGs) generally ranging from 1.5-3.0" (with portions of
northwestern NC having already received localized totals of 2-3"
from prior rainfall over the past 3-6 hours). Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-NEApKCJ4uPZO6DNJvFdxLGh9mWJaAOPtC9jNS0cpZKIgR3AfLtk4rCXduNNT3xAGa0P= jlzh2eNDBfDORe_QvkbnLnY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38038048 37947951 37637883 37567808 37377714=20
37147680 36607710 36637809 36697890 36297952=20
35957992 35768021 35708054 35798087 35998103=20
36448113 36898090 37378079=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271529
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-272127-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia, far northern North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271527Z - 272127Z

Summary...Mesoscale evolution of convective cells with
supercellular characteristics should continue to prompt areas of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates. Any localized backbuilding or training
could promote locally significant flash flooding - especially in
urbanized and sensitive locales.

Discussion...A couple of supercellular structures were noted near
Emporia, VA and Roanoke Rapids, NC over the past hour. Because of
the rotational and supercellular character of these cells, slower
and rightward-moving storm motions have enabled spots of 2-3.5
inch/hr rain rates to develop. These cells were migrating
northeastward parallel to a subtle confluence/baroclinic zone
extending from Emporia to KW75/Saluda, VA. Localized vorticity
ingest processes were likely promoting the supercellular
development and maximizing rain rates locally.

Southwesterly steering flow aloft should allow for convection to
continue drifting northeastward and interacting favorably with the aforementioned confluence zone. This, along with 2 inch PW and
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE on the warm side of the confluence should
continue to support local 2-3.5 inch/hr rain rates through the
Wakefield and Williamsburg areas. Furthermore, any backbuilding
along the confluence axis could prolong rain rates and lead to a
locally significant flash flood threat - especially in any urban
or flash flood-prone areas. The mesoscale details supporting this
risk should persist for at least a few hours, and perhaps through
21Z/5p EDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9XffrvnDjU2arCQ_v_74REcog2S76BiHViToFBlEApskYCUn4wypKkrBUgoFVDsbFqct= 8oZCu02aOdVxzTPoYV3TEDM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37857609 37137581 36367669 36007826 36647829=20
37227789 37807691=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271531
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-272127-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1130 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia, far northern North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271527Z - 272127Z

Summary...Mesoscale evolution of convective cells with
supercellular characteristics should continue to prompt areas of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates. Any localized backbuilding or training
could promote locally significant flash flooding - especially in
urbanized and sensitive locales.

Discussion...A couple of supercellular structures were noted near
Emporia, VA and Roanoke Rapids, NC over the past hour. Because of
the rotational and supercellular character of these cells, slower
and rightward-moving storm motions have enabled spots of 2-3.5
inch/hr rain rates to develop. These cells were migrating
northeastward parallel to a subtle confluence/baroclinic zone
extending from Emporia to KW75/Saluda, VA. Localized vorticity
ingest processes were likely promoting the supercellular
development and maximizing rain rates locally.

Southwesterly steering flow aloft should allow for convection to
continue drifting northeastward and interacting favorably with the aforementioned confluence zone. This, along with 2 inch PW and
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE on the warm side of the confluence should
continue to support local 2-3.5 inch/hr rain rates through the
Wakefield and Williamsburg areas. Furthermore, any backbuilding
along the confluence axis could prolong rain rates and lead to a
locally significant flash flood threat - especially in any urban
or flash flood-prone areas. The mesoscale details supporting this
risk should persist for at least a few hours, and perhaps through
21Z/5p EDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!521WCHswjMDHevOyXf0WKx2TisetPY-_KeehgTDAFe38B0R7LwXHzUy9sWwCHgKE-eSb= pfVMH82ycMoD74ObCFk0yJY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37857609 37137581 36367669 36007826 36647829=20
37227789 37807691=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271630
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-272228-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1146
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1229 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Areas affected...eastern Tennessee, far southwestern Virginia, far
western North Carolina, far northern Georgia, far northwestern
South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271628Z - 272228Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms should continue to develop
through the afternoon hours. Flash flooding is possible on an
isolated basis.

Discussion...Scattered, slow-moving convection has been persistent
this morning beneath a cold mid/upper low centered over far
northern Georgia this morning. Over the past hour or so,
satellite imagery suggests an imminent uptick in convective
coverage due to insolation, surface-based destabilization, and
deepening cumulus in the region. The storms are forming directly
beneath the mid/upper low, where weak steering flow has led to
slow and erratic storm motions. Meanwhile, 1.4 inch PW values and
1000 J/kg MLCAPE was supporting localized areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr
rain rates that were exceeding local FFG thresholds at times.

Ongoing trends should continue until widespread convective
overturning takes hold and leads to stabilization and decreasing
convective coverage. This process should take a few hours to play
out, though. Areas of isolated flash flooding are expected at
times through the afternoon.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!76sqHZHDAADayExOj2dt3jZ5baS5jSAOGBG1OWsPLsnaWHL9l4K0enYnVYQWnByfzyWR= iX__diZ3IL5UnBXiBhHAECY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37068288 36738076 34728190 33858421 35118542=20
36298470=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271821
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-280019-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Areas affected...southeastern California, much of Arizona, far
southern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271819Z - 280019Z

Summary...An increase in convective coverage is expected through
peak heating hours today. A few instances of flash flooding are
possible.

Discussion...Recent satellite imagery depicts deepening cumulus
across a broad part of Arizona and adjacent areas of southeastern
California. Satellite/radar also depicts a persistent, yet small
cluster of cells just north of Yuma that were producing spots of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates. The ongoing evolution of convection is
being supported by a distinct mid/upper low centered over far
southeastern California, in addition to surface-based
destabilization due to sunshine and surface warming. PW values
are in the 1-1.5 inch range, and SBCAPE values are around 1000
J/kg - both supporting deep convection with heavy rainfall as
cells mature. Of note is the fact that cells closer to the
mid/upper low have been very slow to move/propagate so far due to
weak steering flow in that area.

Through the afternoon, increases in convective coverage (along
with increasing prevalence of cell mergers) are expected across
the discussion area. A few more areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates
are expected - especially across southwestern Arizona where the
best forcing, instability, and moisture combo exists. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. Much of the
threat should be diurnally driven and persist through 00Z/5p
PDT/6p MDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!465LAeGZjIfzKRajtIB4bzB_LVQG6fPe3Wr9SHFrNOxUQnrmkE1LghNiw6JDewBiz0eo= Bzn3zglQknUhXj5Sm59_Hmo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36631405 36391160 35371041 32620945 31450974=20
30991091 32341461 32411552 32481632 33891689=20
34701793 36171693=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272112
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-280111-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia, far northeastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272111Z - 280111Z

Summary...Potentially significant urban flood potential exists
around Norfolk/Virginia Beach through 00Z/8p EDT.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, progressive convection has
tended to stall and backbuild along an axis extending from near
Norfolk southwestward to near Windsor, NC. The slowed eastward
progression of this linear complex has enabled focused training
and a peak of rain rates into the 1-1.75 inch/hr range. These
rates aren't surprising given the training and pre-convective
airmass characterized by 2.1 inch PW and ~2000 J/kg SBCAPE.

Unfortunately, these rates will spread northeastward into
populated areas of southeastern Virginia (notably Norfolk and
Virginia Beach). A quick 2-4 inches of rainfall could cause
significant issues with urban runoff in this scenario. Low-lying
areas may also experiencing excessive runoff.

The eastward progression of this band will ultimately rely on
local convective influences (i.e., upscale growth, merging cold
pools, and propagation). It should take at least 2-3 hours for
ongoing convection to clear the region. Again, flash flooding
(locally significant) is likely through 8p EDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uGgh1CJzogzlplRWtrAMWyBFh9jreOdQGicBGA8Fd9puaOYT_Zjk1K3kGwZwAetb5Q6= cIDpGsi5FmcZ4egMQjWqyFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37527558 36777576 36397565 35947601 35887700=20
36587680 37147645 37497609=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281345
FFGMPD
NMZ000-281700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
944 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Areas affected...southern/central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281344Z - 281700Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible this
morning - especially in sensitive areas/downstream of burn scars.

Discussion...Scattered convection has persisted across much of the
discussion area this morning. Recent radar/satellite shows
additional shower/thunderstorm activity developing across southern
New Mexico and drifting northeastward. The storms are in a
favorable pattern for development owing to difluence aloft and an
upper trough upstream over Arizona. Additionally, a pool of
moisture over the area (1+ inch PW) will continue to support
heavier rainfall especially where localized backbuilding can
materialize. Most of the convection this morning has exhibited <1
inch/hr rain rates, though localized backbuilding and prolonging
of heavy rain rates cannot be ruled out in this regime.=20
Furthermore, the onset of insolation/surface warming should
readily increase SBCAPE values beyond 1000 J/kg this morning,
which may result in an uptick in convective coverage through
17Z/11a MDT.

Though ongoing convective activity is relatively isolated, storms
were unfortunately moving toward sensitive ground conditions near
Ruidoso, NM. These trends are expected to continue this morning,
prompting an isolated flash flood risk in the most sensitive
locales. Rain rates may peak at around 1 inch/hr - especially as
convection increases in coverage and local mergers/backbuilding
become more common.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-pLeEWgvdRXR3lvxrf_RZ1C0BAwtZAX1gwuGl5Eh7pOXEvaUQdX8J8ZKRrj4DBjNBgeJ= DfvW1H85xU3ooSrFdY9BViA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34440492 33380431 32260459 31850764 32140802=20
33180738 34220632=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281706
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-282305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CA...Southern NV...Far Southern
UT...Northern and Western AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281705Z - 282305Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will be
developing and expanding in coverage going through the early to
mid-afternoon hours. High rainfall rates and slow cell-motions may
result in isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding by
mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A mid to upper-level low is gradually beginning to
lift off to the northeast across northwest AZ, and this energy
coupled with daytime heating/increasing instability and
orographics/upslope flow near areas of higher terrain will drive
the development and expansion of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms going through the mid-afternoon hours.

SBCAPE values are on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/kg southwest of
the Mogollon Rim and to the south of the low center. However,
visible satellite imagery shows strong diurnal heating taking
place across these areas which will support a notable increase in
instability over the next several hours. The strongest forcing
associated with the low center and broader upper trough axis
should be generally across areas of central and northern AZ going
into the afternoon, and this is generally where the heaviest
rainfall threat will tend to be from developing and expanding
areas of convection. Proximity of the Mogollon Rim will further
support a terrain-induced element to the convective threat.

Scattered areas of convection will also be likely to develop up
across far southern UT, southern NV and portions of eastern CA as
differential heating boundaries become established and focus
smaller scale forcing/focus for convective initiation. In fact,
there is evidence of an MCV over southern NV which may foster a
concern for locally more concentrated convection.

PWs are anomalously high across northwest AZ and especially
southern UT, southern NV and eastern CA where the anomalies are
locally 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal. This will
support convective cells with greater rainfall efficiency and thus
elevated rainfall rates.

Rainfall rates will should be capable of reaching up to 1.5
inches/hour with the stronger cells. Locally slow cell-motions
with some concerns for terrain-anchored cells will facilitate the
potential for some spotty 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals. This may
cause isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding which will
include potential impacts to the area burn scar locations, slot
canyons and arroyos.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ErEAtlv0HYY17FTtPmEISsl5Jo4iq-iw6i8YScdnenXkZpH9JDmY0ji3LsNfBD81MZ-= zRbv5Nyr07voACSXIzaulqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37951141 37510970 36810894 35840904 35210969=20
34501040 33041225 33031402 33661475 34261528=20
34761586 35581634 36321635 36691611 37221524=20
37861332=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281745
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-282345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1151
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281745Z - 282345Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected going through the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy
rainfall rates are likely to result in scattered areas of flash
flooding which may impact sensitive burn scar and dry wash
locations.

DISCUSSION...Midday GOES-E Visible and Day Cloud Phase RGB
satellite imagery shows an increasingly agitated CU/TCU field over
southern NM and southwest TX as stronger diurnal heating and an
increase in boundary layer instability ensues. MLCAPE values have
risen to 500 to 1000 K/kg across these areas, and additional
destabilization is expected over the next few hours which will
help set the stage for renewed areas of convective initiation.

Already there has been a corridor of showers and thunderstorms
that progressed through areas of southern NM in response to a lead
shortwave impulse which is advancing quickly off to the northeast.
However, in its wake, the flow aloft remains quite diffluent given
the upstream approach of the broader upper trough over the
Southwest U.S. The approach of these height falls along with a
belt of stronger mid-level southwest flow and resulting shear
should favor the development and expansion of relatively organized
convective cells going through the afternoon hours.

Effective bulk shear values are on the order of 30 to 40 kts which
combined with MLCAPE values eventually reaching 1500+ J/kg should
yield scattered multicell convection. The PW anomalies across the
region are somewhat moist with values of 1.5+ standard deviations
above normal. This will tend top support heavier rainfall rates
with these more organized convective cells that could reach 1 to 2
inches/hour.

The more orographically favored higher terrain, including the
Sacramento Mountains in south-central NM and the Davis Mountains
of southwest TX are expected to be the locations that generally
see the heaviest rainfall potential going through this evening.
Some spotty totals across these areas may reach 2 to 4+ inches
which is supported by some of the 12Z hires model guidance.

Adjacent areas farther west across central to southwest NM will
also see at least locally heavy totals from potentially more
discrete pockets of convection away the terrain.

Scattered areas of flash flooding will become likely in time due
to the development and expansion of convection with these higher
rainfall rates. The more sensitive burn scar locations (including
the Blue 2, South Fork, Salt and McBride burn scar complex) and
normally dry washes will be at greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xelRpfMJtMEPIBSB9JA6mk_6F9bBX5JDjogUrwu3R4eyi1r2sWxZMLiBMZtdlHlkc3a= NgD4vO8qDuLUrsdVn89zbr0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35450645 35030492 34370407 33340346 31650325=20
30600342 29960395 29980476 31020587 31480683=20
31420774 31250838 31370885 32320907 34370859=20
35260777=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282256
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-290455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1152
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282255Z - 290455Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will persist
through the evening, bringing a likelihood of additional scattered
flash flooding, particularly impacting burn scar areas and arroyos.

DISCUSSION...Late-afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cold-topped convective clusters affecting many areas of central
and southern New Mexico, with the most concentrated and coldest
cloud top temperatures focused over southwest Texas in the last
couple of hours.

Strong upper-level divergence continues over the region as an
upstream upper-level trough approaches from the west. This deeper
layer forcing and ascent continue to interact favorably with a
moderately unstable airmass, sustaining the convection. In fact,
the latest RAP analysis indicates MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500+
J/kg extending from southwest Texas northward across central New
Mexico. Concurrently, effective bulk shear values reaching 30 to
40 knots are contributing to locally well-organized convective
cells with strong updrafts and heavy rainfall rates.

Sufficient dynamical forcing and diurnally enhanced instability
will continue into the evening, maintaining convective clusters
across the region with localized heavy rainfall. Supporting this
will also be corridors of stronger low-level moisture convergence
which over the last couple of hours have been rather notable
across southwest Texas and into far southern New Mexico.

PW values remain generally 1.5+ standard deviations above normal.
Given these environmental conditions, rainfall rates with stronger
convective cells are likely to continue reaching 1 to 2
inches/hour. The latest high-resolution CAMs suggest additional
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches through late this
evening where some cell-merger and terrain-anchored convection
materializes.

These additional rains are expected to cause further scattered
flash flooding throughout the evening. Normally dry washes and
arroyos, as well as burn scar locations, will remain particularly
vulnerable to flash flooding impacts over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!80FISsy1HC6iJi4VgvFYaDVf84S-OPSaSiuL7dSbLws1D55ZljEYSRH6-dGYuZ7TsEEE= yJZ8FivTYyinzpi6-yYwDQg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36170513 35400449 33510435 32150431 31230400=20
30360370 29960395 29900470 30540549 30820584=20
31440642 32380699 33130776 34010801 35210770=20
36050661=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290412
FFGMPD
NMZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Areas affected...west-central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290400Z - 290800Z

Summary...Localized heavy rainfall (1"+/hr rates with as much as
1" in 15-min) will support an isolated flash flood risk through
the early overnight.

Discussion...Convection is persisting into the late evening across
portions of west-central NM, just downstream of a strong PV
(potential vorticity) maxima (400-250 mb). As the low-level jet
strengthens modestly over the next several hours with the diurnal
cycle, updrafts may persist as precipitable water values remain
elevated (~1.0", near climatological max levels per ABQ sounding
climatology) supporting localized rainfall rates of 1"+ (with as
much as 1" in 15-min, per MRMS estimates).

New hi-res guidance (00z HREF) supports continued localized heavy
rainfall (1"+/hr) for at least a couple more hours, though latest
observational trends may support at least isolated convection
continuing through about 09z (with a pool of MLCAPE of 250-750
J/kg over the MPD area likely taking some time still to diminish).
40-km HREF 2" exceedance probabilities are as high as 20% through
09z, suggesting localized/isolated instances of flash flooding
will remain possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Dz7dDKykBox-GVCYrMX2qoIu1TENmbUsOy_f7qnVZATA3lJwPEAFhbjzt5vUycP-3ZA= -hCxAKGB9sZlzJyPDKCfzTc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35910610 35320570 34630610 33980616 33440662=20
33500746 34440754 34960773 35490777 35760752=20
35900678=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301641
FFGMPD
UTZ000-NVZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1239 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Areas affected...East-central Nevada...West-central Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301640Z - 302200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous small-cored convection within a
favorable repeating flow regime and possible back-building may
result in a few streets of .75-1.25" in 1-3 hours resulting in an
isolated incident or two of localized flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES 7.3um WV suite depicts a subtle shortwave at the
right entrance to a 50kt S-N jet along the northern NV/UT border
lifting northeast with typical back-arched upper-level cirrus
indicative of the very favorable divergent flow aloft. Upstream
the well defined drying also denotes the elongated main trough
axis extending from SE OR through central NV; with the core of the
west to east jet starting to nose southward delineating the mean
trough axis.=20

Low level response has been for enhanced return flow out of the
Lower Colorado River bending eastward along a surface to boundary
layer trough between the Salt Lake surface low and the southern NV
low. Pooled moisture mainly below 700mb has supported total Pwats
to 1" across the Salt Flats into SLC vicinity just along/ahead of
the leading shortwave; though enhanced values up to .8-.9" still
remain along the upwind edge. Some mid-level drying and clearing
over east-central NV has provided some insolation/heating to
support SBCAPEs nearing 1000 J/kg. In response to the DPVA, and
low level convergence at the nose of the low level moisture flux
feed; numerous small cored convective cells have begun to cluster
across S White Pine county, NV with hints of further Cu field
development across NE Lincoln county, NV into Millard county, UT.=20
While the cores are shallow (-45 to -50C tops) and narrow, there
is increasing coverage to support better moisture flux convergence
for enhancing rates to near .75"/hr over the next few hours.=20=20=20

Deep layer flow is broadly southwest to southeast parallel to the
surface trough and considering the overall longer wave trof is
filling at the base and shifting northeast, the deeper layer flow
should remain similar to allow for repeating environment. This
concurrent for upstream instability pool and low level moisture flux/convergence to support some back-building potential... all of
which will slowly shift eastward. Given all this, a few repeat
streets may allow for localized .75-1.25" totals in 1-3 hours.=20
Naturally low FFG values are about .75-1"/hr and 1-1.5"/3hrs
suggesting an isolated incident or two of localized flash flooding
may be possible through the afternoon/early evening while
instability pool remains viable.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8bR5yKjzVKRs6jBuMiXqmLNMmDXlRQeTqjnooRlFBRj2gxTI8Rwgd4km1QXzyJHJAWLs= H6Ty6cXJZFvKBuGeCP0eO2E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40831256 40821165 40001141 39451159 38801201=20
38191282 37701405 37931487 38881502 39621464=20
40311387 40591326=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022228
FFGMPD
FLZ000-030310-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1155
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
627 PM EDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Areas affected...eastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022222Z - 030310Z

SUMMARY...Localized but high rainfall rates are expected across
coastal sections of eastern/southeastern FL over the next 3-5
hours. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected, but locally
higher values cannot be ruled out which may lead to localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...22Z visible satellite and area radar imagery
indicated a narrow axis of showers/thunderstorms over Martin and
northern Palm Beach counties, extending offshore and oriented quasi-perpendicular to the coast. MRMS showed hourly rainfall
peaking in the 1-2 inch range. This axis and additional storms
were located just south of a low level gradient in moisture,
aligned from east to west as seen in the surface to 700 mb layer
on LPW imagery from OSPO. Higher values of low level moisture
extended southward from roughly Melbourne, while drier and more
stable air existed to the north. Total PW values were estimated to
be near 2 inches along the Treasure Coast where low level moisture
flux was maximized and MLCAPE ranged from 1000-1500 J/kg via the
22Z SPC mesoanalysis across southeastern FL.

Some subtle low level cyclonic rotation appeared in visible
imagery and 7.3 micron water vapor imagery which may be enhancing
lift across the eastern/southeastern Peninsula Relatively strong
low level easterly flow of 20-25 kt was in place and is expected
to maintain over the next few hours, oriented largely
perpendicular to central to south-central portions of the FL
coast, maximizing convergence. Transient axes of low level
convergence within the anomalous low level moisture plume are
expected to support the possibility of additional narrow bands of showers/thunderstorms which may be slow moving due in part to
opposing low level and upper level winds and mean steering flow
matching the orientation of convergence axes. Hourly rainfall of
2-3 inches should be easily attainable within any slow moving
heavy rain axes but the environment will have the potential to
support 3+ inches of rain in an hour as well. These high rainfall
intensities would support an isolated flash flood threat should
they overlap with the urbanized I-95 corridor, where runoff would
be more likely despite the otherwise high flash flood guidance
values across the region. However, the potential for these very
high rain rates should remain quite localized from northern
Miami-Dade to Indian River counties through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__p112XPLqRR13rzSuD82BUNXbfgZHunFD9agprIMC6A_1z7u5mnb8TZSBBGnQG_7D8C= DqKHwqNbfJy_qIx3HCFQ4VE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27778055 27718017 27498006 26957984 26317981=20
25588006 25648054 26138057 26568054 26998074=20
27378075=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022258
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1156
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
658 PM EDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Areas affected...San Joaquin Valley into central Sierra Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022257Z - 030400Z

SUMMARY...Training and repeating of showers and thunderstorms may
result in localized flash flooding from the northern San Joaquin
Valley into the central Sierra Nevada later this evening. Hourly
rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches is expected which could result in a
rapid 1-2 inches through 04Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible and local radar imagery over
central CA was fairly quiet as of 2230Z in terms of
showers/thunderstorms but that may change over the next 3-6 hours.
A few cells appeared to be developing near the I-5 corridor across
the northern San Joaquin Valley as seen on KHNX radar and
additional development appears likely. MLCAPE was rather weak at
500 J/kg or less via 22Z SPC mesoanalysis data but PW values were
high at 1.0 to 1.4 inches. These values would equate to a
standardized PW anomaly of +3 to +4 for early October.

This region of CA was positioned ahead of the base of an
approaching mid to upper-level trough located just off of the
northern CA coast with strengthening right-exit region divergence
of a 90-100 kt jet just east of the trough base. While surface
heating through solar insolation has maximized, some additional
advection of low-level moisture may locally boost instability
values slightly higher over the next few hours. Showers and
possibly a thunderstorm aligning within the unidirectional SSW
flow along with upslope low level flow into the Sierra Nevada may
act to boost rain rates with potential for 0.5 to 1.0 inches in an
hour. While the threat for flash flooding appears to be highly
localized, these higher rainfall intensities falling on sensitive
burn scars or urban areas would be at most risk for localized
flash flooding through 04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4z5_pliYw5pYczaQJ8yWjKZdFcMmbpTjjftCcR_BX1T9hKCiEQ7glaarEk3k-77ghhr-= u5UTiOkB6XuuJuhzqGtywBM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39172033 39162009 38901971 38531945 37891909=20
37041902 36321932 36022001 36402078 37172113=20
37972082 38592068 39052052=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030342
FFGMPD
FLZ000-030900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1157
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 PM EDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030341Z - 030900Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated areas of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms across southeast FL will continue in the near-term.
Concerns for urban flash flooding will exist near and south of the
Miami metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery along with
radar data shows some concentrated areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact portions of southeast FL. Much
of the activity is currently situated near and south of Miami with
some relatively organized banding of convection that is
well-aligned with the very moist/unstable low-level easterly flow
impacting the FL Peninsula.

Satellite and surface data also show signs of a weak low-level
vort center near Biscayne Bay which is helping to concentrate an
axis of strong moisture convergence into the coastal areas in
between Miami and Homestead. MLCAPE values of near 1000 J/kg are
in place, with PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches.

Some cell-training concerns will exist over the next few hours
with the convective activity impacting southeast FL, and
especially with a persistently convergent low-level Atlantic fetch
into the region. Rainfall rates have already been reaching as high
2 to 3 inches/hour, and with any persistence of these stronger
convective cores, there may be some rainfall totals that locally
approach or exceed 5 inches. This is supported by some of the 00Z
HREF guidance.

Expect there to be at least some concerns for urban flash flooding
with these heavier rainfall rates and storm totals set up over the
next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!98UZoF4G0XdnPVYl7qoTSxbX3It1YKYOKQF0Sq7PDroixNuu6-KMzdtq7meHc1Y5QShB= t2qwfcqXCksXXWswGOrhleU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26168015 26028007 25758007 25328022 25278039=20
25478053 25968043 26158027=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051946
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Areas affected...southern/coastal Alabama, parts of the western
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051945Z - 052345Z

Summary...A band of heavy rainfall will move slowly across the
discussion area, with rainfall totals of 3-5 inches occurring in
some areas through 2330Z/630p CDT. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible with this activity.

Discussion...Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a band of
thunderstorms that has exhibited upscale growth and slow forward
propagation along an axis from near Foley, AL south-southeastward
to around 85 miles SSW of AAF/Apalachicola, FL. This band was
moving slowly eastward, while individual cells were streaming
northward toward coastal areas near Foley and Pensacola, FL. The
band of convection was also exhibiting very localized training
near coastal areas that was resulting in an uptick in hourly
rainfall rates (into the 3 inch/hr range). These rain rates are
still falling shy of local FFG thresholds, suggesting that any
runoff issues may be isolated in the short term.

The band of ongoing convection should persist for at least another
2-4 hours given favorable low-level easterlies for
inflow/low-level shear, slight low-level warming (supporting
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE in the pre-convective environment), and an
abundantly moist airmass (2-2.2 inch PW values supporting
efficient rainfall processes). Isolated flash flood potential
should slowly spread eastward along the western Florida Panhandle,
with areas near Pensacola, Eglin AFB, and potentially Panama City
experiencing heavier rainfall through at least 2330Z/630p CDT. 3
inch/hr rain rates will remain possible with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_L0h8AHIVf3mgL5bBPLCuReypkeugKzGNxZaZPk3XgpRN4TGgQ5uYihplk-TQbiY7fZS= Fs_hIJijViKdBjXFS1-p4bk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31018783 30978673 30658550 29928509 29608528=20
30218793 30748818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060741
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...South-Central LA into Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060740Z - 061340Z

SUMMARY...Localized backbuilding and training of warm-topped
convective bands early this morning across south-central LA up
into southwest MS may produce some isolated flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with radar shows multiple warm-topped bands of very heavy showers
and a few thunderstorms impacting portions south-central LA up
into far southwest MS. The convection is associated with
increasingly convergent flow around the eastern flank of a low to
mid-level vort center lifting gradually northward into the Lower
MS Valley.

Locally enhanced moisture convergence is especially noted across
southwest MS right now, with a nose of MUCAPE values reaching 500
to 1000 J/kg stretching northward from the central Gulf Coast up
into southwest MS in close proximity to a surface trough. A
southerly low-level jet reaching 30 to 40 kts is noted around the
eastern flank of the vort energy, and with weaker deep layer mean
flow across the region, the Corfidi vectors are strongly
supportive of an environment for backbuilding convection. This is
being evidenced right now with the latest radar trends and
especially with the convective cells/banding occurring over parts
of south-central LA.

PWs are quite high and locally upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches, and
with this deep tropical environment along with elevated WBZ
heights, some of the rainfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour.
Given the alignment of the convection with the deeper layer
southerly flow regime, there will be cell-training concerns at
least locally. Going through early this morning, there may be some
localized 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals that materialize. This may
result in at least some isolated concerns for flash flooding and
especially if any of the more urbanized areas are impacted.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4oRu_NwHnPpnEWMcW438fAYjV3yFpFQclLdJ0OOdPdGjo-3Wv2jUZ3ffNnOYin5X9pOl= Su7ksAZXIeS0p-ZIYbANpG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32789084 32249005 30908996 29759052 29529126=20
29819175 30439172 31349151 32309151=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061210
FFGMPD
FLZ000-061809-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of Palm Beach & Broward Counties in FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061209Z - 061809Z

Summary...Occasional convective bands could continue to set up in
and near the Gold Coast of FL, possibly into early this afternoon.
Hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could lead to
isolated occurences of flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level disturbance across North FL combined
with precipitable water values ~2.25", 2000+ J/kg of ML CAPE, and
effective bulk shear of 20kt or so has led to the development and
fading of a couple convective bands across east-central Palm Beach
and northeast Broward Counties, downwind of the northwest Bahamas
and within an area of low-level convergence near a stationary
front. A more active convective band lies offshore Broward County
at the time of this discussion's writing. Hourly rain estimates
have approached 2" with the Palm Beach county band and above 1"
near Deerfield Beach.

The expectation is for convective bands to occasionally shift
south/reorganize in different locations with time, primarily
across Broward County, though additional activity in southeast
Palm Beach County can't be ruled out. The mesoscale guidance (via
the HREF and REFS probabilities) indicate the threat of heavy
rainfall in and near the Gold Coast perhaps as late as 18z with
some possible southward shift/reorganization which seems to follow
a slight southward nudge of the highest moisture in the region.=20
Until the bands dissipate or become less organized at some point
this afternoon, hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4SZmsLD6fVmAlGZcsn3_ADjbNKkRCq6LhLl8BVguG67mpQK2vSw4G6JD6Y3vf_czwosm= p2INOnsxNkSdgXHi41affrY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26758005 26498002 25958013 26038037 26588037=20
26738031=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061338
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061637-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1161
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast LA and southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061337Z - 061637Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms are possible over the next few
hours roughly between Baton Rouge LA and Prentiss MS. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" and additional local totals are possible where
cell training occurs, which would be most problematic in recently
saturated and urban areas.

Discussion...A training band of convection remains active across
south-central MS at the present time, while another area of slowly
developing scattered convection near Baton Rouge aligning.=20
Precipitable water values are around 2.25" per GPS data. ML CAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg persists to the southeast of a low- to mid-level
disturbance near southeast AR. Effective bulk shear across the
region is 20 kts or so, which has fostered convective organization
at times.

The concern is that the scattered aligned convection in LA
continues to slowly build, consolidate, and train in the next few
hours, potentially advecting downstream into areas that receieved
5-10" of rain this morning per radar estimates. The remaining
convective band is also a source of concern for another 2-3 hours.
Where training occurs, hourly amounts to 2.5" with additional
local amounts to 4" would be possible, which would be most
problematic in urban areas and were soils have recently saturated.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-HlW0Z7_20mpjxmZ3pPVoB8ronlYjmCSXAac0erYyKyg3YLk3QST8fpprRAMQE2LJqJi= m34tWFprAZ8Qzr9Tr17YJjA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31938979 31228976 30489041 30149122 30169166=20
30619135 31359058=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061622
FFGMPD
FLZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Space Coast of Florida into Central Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061625Z - 062100Z

SUMMARY...Strong, directed onshore flow with strengthening
upstream low level flow, to support back-building training across
the Space Coast with highly efficient 2-3"/hr rates pose localized
urban flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and KMLB RADAR shows strong
back-sheared thunderstorms crossing Cape Canaveral into N Brevard
county with slow weakening/disruption into the central Peninsula
as some dry air mixing is resulting in low level convergence
outrunning the deeper layer steering. This reduces the vertical
depth of moisture flux convergence and rainfall generation.=20
However, nearer the coast; upstream increased deeper layer
moisture (including increasing 700mb RH) is maintaining broader
convective development within an East to West band north of Grand
Bahama into the Cape. MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg are solid given the
narrow skinny/moist profile with depth. Combining to the vertical
ascent is entrance to the 30-40kt 3H jet streak along 30N east of
79W, is providing solid divergence aloft to help maintain the
depth of rainfall production.

Deep layer moisture of 2.25" and flux convergence given upstream
winds of 25-30kts decelerating into the coast will allow for
continued 2-3"/hr rates with a favorable back-building
regenerative environment. Eventually, the forecast is for the
outflow/jet entrance is to slide further east and reduce the
divergence aloft; however, there is some trends in satellite
loop/imagery that suggest the convection may be adding
to/strengthening the jet in a narrow axis. If this were to occur,
longer duration will increase overall localized totals of 3-5".
Small southward wavering of the onshore axis is expected to help
spread the heavy rainfall footprint. Given proximity to urban
locations and sheer rate, localized rapid inundation/flash
flooding is considered possible.

A bit more uncertain, is how far downstream into the Central
Peninsula this will extend. Each bout/updraft cycle will further
moisten the low level environment and allow further downstream
extension of the narrow heavy rainfall (E-W) corridor. Hi-Res
CAMs continue to suggest a westward translating convergence wave
lengthwise through the Peninsula, but current trends of upstream
development suggests coastal training remains more likely for the
greatest overall totals.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_G_ivsMkCGAo5PcurhnL7tIjaOrAE5fAtUtL0T9LF25M4UDunV-Rv3NUQEeihD7bCFhL= QWOiAWx9KYghJ7ltvqgu7UQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29148147 29078097 28798063 28398036 27788042=20
27848101 28378168 28728191 29038184=20

=3D =3D =3D
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