ACUS11 KWNS 101521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101521=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-101645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AL into far western GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

Valid 101521Z - 101645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds and a brief tornado continues
across Tornado Watch 03 this morning. A downstream watch is not
currently anticipated, though convective and environmental trends
are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KBMX/KMXX depicts a northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS tracking eastward across central
and eastern AL. The primary severe risk associated with this
activity should remain focused along north/south-oriented parts of
the line (i.e., just west of the KMXX radar) -- where around 50 kt
of line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear (per KMXX VWP) is favoring more
intense updrafts keeping pace with the larger-scale cold pool. Here,
moist inflow (upper 60s dewpoints) and ample low-level hodograph
size/curvature (around 270 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KMXX VWP) will
continue to support embedded mesovortex/supercell structures and an
attendant risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two.
The northern portion of the QLCS moving into west-central GA is also
taking on a more north/south orientation, and this area may also be
locally favorable for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado in
the near term.=20

However, as the QLCS approaches the eastern edge of Tornado Watch
03, buoyancy becomes quite limited, and current expectation is for
convection to gradually weaken with northward and eastward extent.
Therefore, a downstream watch is not currently expected, though
convective and environmental trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Smith.. 01/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Y3ELN85GdONQXHDvibdwIWA0p3fDNUndAO32QAlRJsiKOz6xlxmtT_cRiM73jvgwyPiM6mbg= SU_qAG-xOqYu4w2-HU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32068715 32628648 33458558 33828509 33858478 33688457
33278464 32918495 32568515 32158561 32018590 31828639
31738690 31808710 32068715=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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