ACUS02 KWNS 141726
SWODY2
SPC AC 141724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern
Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential
for a strong tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge
with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build
across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the
mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken
through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the
western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges.

...Southeast...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability
is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong
low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential
where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows
varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line
becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps
it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough
and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain
more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this
line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and
northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and
strong low-level jet overlap.

12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South
Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the
forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern
North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat
Sunday morning through the afternoon.

Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool
Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE
around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this
time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but
no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.

..Bentley.. 02/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150559
SWODY2
SPC AC 150557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas,
mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and
perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at
least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes.

...Discussion...
General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in
prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a
blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude
Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave
perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while
digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest
coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially
significant downstream trough inland across California and much of
the Great Basin by late Monday night.

As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop
farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming
centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern
Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate
that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting
northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great
Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric
cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin,
in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly
deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and
southern Atlantic Seaboard.

It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing
will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed
maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California
through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may
be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by
the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while
occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco
Bay vicinity during the day Monday.

...Southern California coast...
Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening,
along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may
gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support
deepening convective development while spreading inland across
coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los
Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning.
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling,

thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm
development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind
profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb
level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs
developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse
Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may
become conducive to the development of supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Central Valley...
There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but
at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and
perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may
contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization
and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast
soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the
environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak
tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151714
SWODY2
SPC AC 151713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas
and perhaps parts of the Central Valley on Monday. These storms will
be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough and associated mid-level jet streak will
impact southern California on Monday with an amplifying ridge across
the central CONUS. The southern stream trough across southern
California will merge with a northern stream trough across the
Northwest during the day Monday. Therefore, a surface low which will
move onshore along the southern/central California coast on Monday morning/early afternoon will combine with the northern surface low
and result in a very strong surface low centered over the northern
Rockies by the end of the period.

...Southern California...
Low-level moisture advection will lead to weak destabilization off
the southern California coast Monday morning and into the early
afternoon. Most CAM guidance indicates strengthening convection
along the front as it approaches the coast. A strong low-level jet
and some low-level hodograph curvature may support some damaging
winds and potential for a QLCS tornado or two. The primary limiting
factor will be the relatively shallow nature of the instability.
Some areas within the line may not even produce lightning, but given
the convective nature of the line and the strong wind profile, a
marginal risk is warranted.

...Central California...
In the wake of the initial precipitation surge, cooling temperatures
aloft and perhaps some heating in the Central Valley may result in a
brief window during the afternoon which may favor a few stronger
storms. This threat would be confined to a narrow area, but HRRR
forecast soundings between 21-22Z show some weak instability,
moderately steep lapse rates, and around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. The 2%
tornado probabilities have been maintained for this limited duration
threat.

..Bentley.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160556
SWODY2
SPC AC 160554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone
will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast
Tuesday. However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to
continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas
to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley
through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of
amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S.
Pacific Coast.

Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the
southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio
Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing
pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night.
Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing
accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a
broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including 40-50
kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the
central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday.

To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather
modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid
40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great
Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley,
beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much
of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower
Mississippi Valley. However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer
modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through
this period and beyond.

...Pacific Coast...
Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early
Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the
primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm
development, seems likely to become focused across northern and
central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level
cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper
jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable
of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal
areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday. It still
appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates,
and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to
reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in
later outlooks for this period.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears
that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region
late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on the latest
forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe
hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps
not entirely out of the question. This will continue to be
monitored in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161732
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the
Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as
across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday
night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low.

...California...
In the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across
the Great Basin/Four Corners region, another strong trough will dig southeastward along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday, as a powerful
mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the California coast.
Ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will
support low-topped convection along much of the California coast,
and also within parts of the interior valleys. The strongest
low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern CA coast and
valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern CA coastal
region later Tuesday night. Gusty winds and small hail will be
possible with low-topped convection across these regions. At this
time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is
expected to limit the organized severe threat. However, trends will
continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability
wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system.

...Missouri Valley/Midwest...
The mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern
Great Basin and Four Corners region will eject rapidly northeastward
and take on a negative tilt on Tuesday, reaching the
central/northern Plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning. In response to
this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across
the northern High Plains, and then move across the Dakotas. A
trailing cold front will move across parts of the Great Plains.

Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to
remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above
the surface could support elevated convection from very late
afternoon into Tuesday night across parts of the MO Valley and Upper
Midwest. The signal for robust convection is currently muted, with
the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but
nonzero potential. With strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will
be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if
deep convection can be sustained.

..Dean.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170550
SWODY2
SPC AC 170549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for
thunderstorm development may evolve across the U.S. Wednesday
through Wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to
remain generally weak.

...Discussion...
Notable spread persists within the latest model output concerning
short wave (and related lower-level) developments within a cyclonic
regime evolving inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi
Valley by Wednesday.

In general, one initial perturbation and associated surface
troughing, pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region by the beginning of this period, are still forecast to
undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It
is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing
for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain
sufficient strength to support continuing convective development
capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower
Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. This seems likely to
remain rooted above an initially stable boundary layer, with little
risk for severe weather before diminishing.

Upstream, another fairly significant short wave perturbation is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada,
as another digs toward the Oregon/northern California coast.
Beneath strong mid-level cooling, models indicate that
boundary-layer warming will probably contribute to weak
destabilization supportive of convective development across the
eastern Great Basin through the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming
during the day. It doesn't seem entirely out of the question that
some of this activity may become capable of producing lightning,
particularly where surface temperatures are able to warm above
freezing. However, this probably will remain very sparse in
coverage. Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities marginally
sufficient for a categorical thunderstorm area are likely to linger
near Pacific coastal areas, mainly from Oregon into and just south
of San Francisco Bay.

It does still appear that the short wave trough emerging from the
West will support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado
Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through
Wednesday night. However, low-level flow, above the boundary-layer,
across and east of the southern Great Plains is forecast to maintain
a pronounced westerly component through the period. Modest inland
moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer
appears likely to remain focused east of the lower Mississippi
Valley, into the Southeast, around the western periphery of
low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western Atlantic. It is possible that a weak
mid/upper impulse rapidly progressing eastward across parts of the
Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, and/or low-level warm
advection farther west into the vicinity of the confluence of the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, could support weak thunderstorm
development Wednesday night. But, probabilities appear near or
below the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area at the
present time.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171710
SWODY2
SPC AC 171708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts
of the West Coast, lower Ohio/mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower
Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A pair of successive shortwave troughs are expected to progress north-northeastward on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The initial,
weaker perturbation will move from the mid-Mississippi Valley into
the upper Ohio Valley. Some thunderstorm potential will exist ahead
of this feature within a warm advection regime in lower Michigan
into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

Farther west, a more potent shortwave will move from the lower
Colorado Valley/western Great Basin into the central Plains by
Thursday morning. In its wake, general troughing will in the West.
Cold temperatures aloft will foster potential for isolated
thunderstorms along much of the West Coast. A few lightning flashes
may also occur ahead of the progressing shortwave trough in the
eastern Great Basin. However, ample cloud cover and cool/cold
temperatures will keep such activity quite sparse.

A surface low will develop late in the period in the central High
Plains and shift into eastern Kansas/western Missouri by Thursday
morning. Mid-level ascent and warm/moist advection will gradually
increase from the Mississippi/Ohio confluence into parts of the
lower Ohio Valley. There is some signal from both global and
regional CAM guidance for development very late in the period near
the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. Farther north and east, capping may
prevail given more nebulous forcing. Severe weather is not
anticipated with any of the activity in these regions.

..Wendt.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180601
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early
evening.

...Discussion...
There remains notable spread evident in the latest model output
concerning a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic developments within
the evolving pattern across North America through this period. In
general, though, guidance continues to indicate that larger-scale
mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific
coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained
downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley,
and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians
vicinity. As this occurs, the center of a mid-level subtropical
ridge is likely to shift from the southern Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an
influence across parts of the Southeast.

A couple of initially lower amplitude short wave perturbations,
within a seasonably strong belt of flow emerging from the Southwest,
may be in the process of progressing into and across the central
Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys at
the outset of the period. The lead perturbation, probably
accompanied by a 500 mb speed maximum of 90-100+ kts, is forecast to
continue into and across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, as
the trailing one pivots northeastward and perhaps intensifies across
the middle Mississippi Valley toward southern Great Lakes region
later Thursday through Thursday night.

Associated with these developments, a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone is
forecast to migrate across and northeast of the lower Missouri
Valley during the day, perhaps slowly deepening, before continuing
toward the upper Great Lakes accompanied by more substantive
deepening Thursday night.

...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
It appears that warming aloft, associated with subsidence to the
south of the trailing mid/upper jet, will tend to eventually
overspread the better (but still relatively modest) low-level
moisture return to the evolving warm sector across the lower Ohio
Valley. However, to still differing degrees, the latest runs of the
various model output indicate a window of opportunity for strong to
severe thunderstorm development, perhaps beginning by early
afternoon, aided by daytime heating and subtle mid-level
cooling/forcing for ascent accompanying the lead jet streak.

The consensus of latest guidance, supported by the High Resolution
Ensemble and related machine learning output, suggests that this may
initiate across portions of Illinois, near or to the north and east
of the Greater St. Louis area, with strongest activity tending to
develop eastward and perhaps peak while spreading across east
central and portions of southeastern Illinois through portions of
central and southern Indiana by early Thursday evening.

Forecast soundings across this corridor remain generally
characterized by at least modest convective instability, and CAPE on
the order of 500-750+ J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear. Sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath
40-50+ kt south to southwest flow in the 850-700 mb layer, may
promote supercells capable of producing severe hail and a few
tornadoes, and activity may eventually grow upscale enough to
support increasing potential for damaging wind gusts before
convection wanes late Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181730
SWODY2
SPC AC 181729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes,
hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the
middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into
early evening.

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid-level flow regime, characterized by multiple
low-amplitudes perturbations and strong west/southwesterly flow
aloft is expected over the CONUS Day2/Thursday. The primary
shortwave trough will move from the southern Rockies/Plains into the
Midwest by 00z, assuming a slight negative tilt as multiple weaker
preceding subtropical perturbation are absorbed. Strong ascent
associated with the trough a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will
deepen a surface low over the eastern Plains, reaching the Great
Lakes by early Friday.

...Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley...
As the upper trough and surface low approach the Mid MS Valley early
Thursday, rapid low-level moistening is expected across parts of
eastern MO western IL and the lower OH Valley. While moisture
content is seasonably limited (surface dewpoints in the 50s to near
60 F), cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the preceding
subtropical shortwave trough will support some destabilization
Thursday afternoon.

While instability will remain modest owing to limited boundary-layer
moisture, clearing ahead of a surging dryline tied to the surface
low will allow for diurnal heating. In combination with steepening
mid-level lapse rates, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is exacted by
early afternoon. An arc of mainly cellular convection should develop
by mid afternoon across far eastern MO and western to south-central
IL and move quickly eastward. Amid very strong kinematic fields
(EBWD 55+ kt) a supercell mode is expected. Strong low-level shear
and the concentration of buoyancy in the lowest few km will favor
strong vertical accelerations and stretching with seasonably cool
mid-level temperatures. Hail is likely with the stronger rotating
storms. Additionally, with backed low-level flow near the low/warm
front and large low-level shear, (0-1 km BWD 25+ kt) a few tornadoes
are possible.

As ascent spreads eastward, thunderstorm activity may eventually
grow upscale enough to support increasing potential for damaging
wind gusts given the strong background flow. However, decreasing
buoyancy and weakening height falls with eastward extent should
gradually limit convective intensity into parts of the middle OH
Valley late Thursday evening.

..Lyons.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190602
SWODY2
SPC AC 190600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is
possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and
Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of
thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf
Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose
at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but
generally sub-severe wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific
through this period. This is likely to include a significant short
wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly
along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging
is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant
larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the
Rockies through Mississippi Valley.

There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing
strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged
from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the
Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period. It is generally
forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south
of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and
downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and
northern New England. However, it appears possible that it may
maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower
Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated
occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan.

It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be
slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and
east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps
undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night. The
trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the
Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the
strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in
advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest.

Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the
Gulf is probable along and south of the front. However, warm
layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper
subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend
inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of
Friday into Friday evening.

...Gulf Coast States...
While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave
trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side
of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for
increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and
continue overnight. There appears a consensus among latest model
output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi,
Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday. While this is likely to become
rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings
indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist
layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic
profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence
of strong cloud bearing layer shear. Potential for severe gusts
appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes
overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191729
SWODY2
SPC AC 191727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, with a few stronger storms capable of hail,
are possible Friday night and early Saturday over parts of the
Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Low amplitude but progressive mid-level flow will continue across
the southern CONUS Day2/Friday. A shortwave trough and 100+ kt
mid-level jet over the southern Great lakes will move quickly
eastward and deamplify as subtropical ridging build to the south. A
second shortwave, initially over the Desert Southwest will move
quickly northeastward reaching the lower MS Valley by early
Saturday. A deep surface low over the Great Lakes will gradually
fill as its associated cold front surges eastward toward the
Atlantic coast. Trailing portions of the front will slow and
eventual stall, east to west over portions of the lower MS valley
and northern Gulf Coast States.

Thunderstorms are expected to persist from Day1/Thursday east of the
surface low early Friday across the eastern Great Lakes and Mid
Atlantic vicinity. However, scant low-level moisture and weak
buoyancy will preclude severe potential. Scattered storms are
expected overnight across portions of the northern Gulf Coast
States.

...Northern Gulf Coast States....
Mid-level flow is expected to remain quite strong over much of the
Southeast Friday as weak subtropical ridging builds in behind the
departing eastern shortwave. With weak to neutral mid-level heights, large-scale ascent will be muted for much of the day. Continued
southerly flow off the Gulf will support moistening south of the
stalled front with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s F.
Low/mid-level warm advection is expected to increase later Friday
evening into early Saturday. While the primary ascent from the
Southwest US shortwave should remain along the cool side, slight
enhancement of the low-level jet is expected to be sufficient for
elevated destabilization over parts of northern LA, MS, AL into
northern GA and far southern TN. While not overly large, MUCAPE ~
500 J/kg amid strong deep-layer shear (50+ kt) may allow for a few
instances of hail with the stronger elevated storms overnight and
early Saturday.

...Upper OH Valley...
East of the occluding surface low, modest low-level moistening is
expected early Friday morning. A narrow plume of relatively higher
dewpoints (40s and 50s F) ahead of the surging front could support
shallow convection across eastern OH, southwest NY and western PA.
Current forecast guidance shows little if any buoyancy. However,
given the strong ascent, shallow convective elements are possible
along the front. With 100+ kt of mid-level flow, sporadic damaging
wind gusts cannot be ruled out should any stronger convective
showers develop. Cooler and more stable air farther east into the
Mid Atlantic should limit any further wind gust potential later
Friday.

..Lyons.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200630
SWODY2
SPC AC 200628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts.

... Discussion ...

Strong west/southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern and eastern United States at the start of the forecast
period. A subtle southern stream shortwave trough will amplify on
Saturday as it interacts with this stronger mid-level flow and
approaching northern stream trough.

A remnant frontal boundary will be stretched from southern North
Carolina southwestward toward southeast Texas. A surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before quickly out to
sea by Sunday morning.

Ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the forecast period should
persist through the morning, as the mid-level wave amplifies and
surface low develops. Along and south of the front, modest diurnal
heating will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Long, straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone should favor small linear/bowing
segments over supercells, despite the strong deep-layer shear
present. A marginal threat for damaging wind gusts will accompany
any sustained thunderstorm segment. A modest low-level jet during
the morning hours may provide enough low-level streamwise vorticity
to support a brief tornado or two. This threat should diminish
during the afternoon as the low-level jet veers and weakens.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201721
SWODY2
SPC AC 201720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHERN CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday and Saturday night. A few
stronger storms capable of damaging gusts and a brief tornado are
possible.

...Discussion...
An initially low-amplitude zonal flow regime over the CONUS is
forecast to amplify considerably as a shortwave trough over the
lower MS Valley deepens while moving into the Southeast. A stalled
frontal boundary will be in place from southern North Carolina
southwestward toward the northern Gulf Coast. A surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before moving quickly
out to sea by Sunday morning. Sufficient moisture and ascent will
likely support widely scattered thunderstorms with some potential
for damaging gusts and a brief tornado over parts of the Southeast
and southern Carolinas Saturday and Saturday night.

...Northeastern Gulf Coast States and the southern Carolinas...
Early morning elevated storms should gradually become surface-based
as they track east/southeastward ahead of a subtle wave low along
the front. South of the front, modest diurnal heating amid mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints will result in an environment with up to 500
to perhaps 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Driven mostly by
low-level warm air advection, mid-level lapse rates will remain
generally poor (~6.5 C/km) which in combination with the lagged
primary upper forcing may tend to limit initial updraft intensity.

As the upper trough amplifies, the low will gradually deepen,
potentially serving as a local focus for more sustained convection
in southern GA and far southern SC. Long straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone could allow a few more organized
line/clusters Saturday afternoon/evening. Given the strong
deep-layer shear and some buoyancy from heating, damaging gusts and
a brief tornado are possible. Forecast guidance shows a few stronger
storms in this region through Saturday evening. Should coverage and
overall intensity increase, higher wind probabilities may be needed
in future outlooks.

Farther west, the surging front will likely undercut convection
across the western flank of the warm sector as the surface low
deepens. However, stronger heating and relatively larger buoyancy
suggests isolated strong gusts remain possible with any stronger
storms able to persist. Convection should gradually diminish as it
moves southeastward toward the Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle into
early Sunday.

..Lyons.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210632
SWODY2
SPC AC 210631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across
coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts.

... Discussion ...

A strong shortwave trough and attendant speed max over the Ohio
Valley at the start of the period will quickly dig east/southeast
during the day on Sunday, before pivoting north toward southern New
England overnight. At the surface, a low, initially over the coastal
waters of North Carolina, will deepen through the day as strong
large-scale ascent increases with the approaching shortwave trough.
The rate of deepening of the surface low will only increase
overnight as the shortwave trough takes on a neutral to negative
tilt and large-scale ascent increases further.

As the surface low deepens along the coast, the intensifying warm
conveyor belt to the north and west of the low, drawing warm, moist
Gulf Stream air inland. The combination of strong large-scale
ascent, strong low-level warm-air advection, and cooling mid-level
temperatures may result in enough elevated instability to support a
few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt as the low lifts
northward along the coast.

Farther south and west, the deepening surface low will drive a cold
front south across the Florida Peninsula. Surface temperatures in
the 70Fs and dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60Fs may support a narrow
ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg ahead of the
southward advancing front. As a result, showers and a few
thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front. Forecast
soundings show pronounced mid-and-upper-level warming, which will
limit the overall instability and a more robust lightning threat.

Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection
associated with the next upper-trough may lead to very isolated
lightning strikes along and off the Pacific Northwest coast.
However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need
for delineation.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211727
SWODY2
SPC AC 211725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across
coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts and
over western Washington State. Severe weather potential is low.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough over the lower Great Lakes is expected to rapidly
intensify as several smaller perturbations merge with the main
trough and western US ridging develops Sunday. A 100+ kt jet streak
will round the base of the trough and move over the Atlantic coast
through midday Sunday. Increasing large-scale ascent will aid in
rapid cyclogenesis off the NC Coast. The resulting mass response
will surge a cold front southward over portions of the FL Peninsula.

Ahead of the front, a narrow ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between
500 and 1000 J/kg should develop with daytime heating ahead of the
southward advancing front. This may support convective showers and a
few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across portions of central and
southern FL. However, warming/drying mid-levels and the departure of
stronger mid-level forcing for ascent should tend to limit lightning
coverage with southward extent into later Sunday

Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts,
intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm
advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated
instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to
support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the
Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night
into early Monday.

Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection
associated with another upper-trough may support shallow convection
along and off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula. While coverage
should remain relatively low, cold mid-level temperatures and the
strong ascent could support a few lightning flashes through Sunday
evening.

..Lyons.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.

... Discussion ...

A strong trough/surface cyclone will depart the East Coast on
Monday, driving a strong surface cold front south of the US
mainland. At the same time, mid-level ridging will overspread much
of the western and central US, sustaining an expansive surface
anticyclone across the central and eastern US. This combination of a
mid-level ridge, a large surface anticyclone, and a cold frontal
intrusion well into the Gulf should preclude thunderstorm
development on Monday.

..Marsh.. 02/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221644
SWODY2
SPC AC 221642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A powerful cyclone initially offshore of the southern New England
coast will move northeastward toward Nova Scotia on Monday. Any
remaining lightning activity with this system is expected to be
offshore by the start of the period. Otherwise, cool, dry, and
stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage should
preclude thunderstorm development across the central/eastern CONUS.

Elsewhere, shallow convection may persist into Monday morning across
parts of the Olympic Peninsula of WA, but lightning potential should
generally diminish with time. A midlevel shortwave trough will move
from the Canadian Prairies toward the northern High Plains during
the afternoon into Monday night, along the periphery of an upper
ridge. Negligible moisture/instability is expected to limit
thunderstorm potential with this shortwave.

..Dean.. 02/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230623
SWODY2
SPC AC 230621

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.

... Discussion ...

Fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the US
upper-levels on Tuesday. Embedded within this flow, a strong
shortwave trough will move from the Northern Plains into the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a low will skirt the central US-Canada
border, ending up north of the Great Lakes. Despite impressive
kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and instability should preclude thunderstorm development.

A secondary low will develop southward from eastern Colorado into
Northwest Texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of
Montana southward into central Texas. This low will begin drawing
Gulf moisture northward into the central US. However, the lack of
focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on Tuesday.

Across the West, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across
portions of the Pacific Northwest into northern California as an
extremely positively tilted trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist
adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit
sufficient instability for thunderstorm development.

..Marsh.. 02/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231659
SWODY2
SPC AC 231658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to extend across the
majority of the CONUS early Tuesday. Several shortwave troughs are
expected to move within the this northwesterly flow, including one
forecast to move across the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and
adjacent northwestern Ontario.

A deepening lee trough, and likely lee low development, will help
tighten the surface pressure gradient across the Plains. Resulting
southerly flow across the Southern Plains will encourage some modest
low-level moisture return is anticipated late Tuesday through
Wednesday morning across the TX Gulf Coast. However, the previously
mentioned shortwave is expected to remain displaced well north of
this low-level moisture and any associated buoyancy, precluding
thunderstorm developing across the CONUS.

A shortwave trough will also move into the Pacific Northwest early
Wednesday morning. Cool and moist profiles are expected to be in
place Tuesday morning, with some mid-level drying anticipated across
the region throughout the day ahead of this wave. Some additional cooling/moistening is possible along the WA coast early morning as
the wave moves through. However, stable conditions will prevail
throughout the period, with no lightning anticipated.

..Mosier.. 02/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240651
SWODY2
SPC AC 240649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the
central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee
Valley.

... Discussion ...

A fast moving shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific
Northwest into the central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley on Wednesday.
At the surface, a low will develop across the Texas Panhandle within
a deepening lee trough before moving southeast then east overnight
near the Red River.

Ahead of this trough/surface low, southerly winds will continue
moistening the boundary layer, with dewpoints reaching the mid 50Fs
across far southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi by
Thursday morning. Warm temperatures aloft should inhibit deep
convection during the day on Wednesday across the warm sector.
However, strengthening southwesterly low-to-mid-level flow
throughout the warm sector should result in enough moist isentropic
ascent across the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley that showers and
a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially late Wednesday
night as cooling midlevel temperatures overspread the area.

Farther west, thunderstorms may develop in associate with the
aforementioned shortwave trough itself as it traverses the central
Plains during the day on Wednesday. Here, cold mid-level
temperatures overspreading a slowly moistening boundary layer may
yield enough instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms.

..Marsh.. 02/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241637
SWODY2
SPC AC 241635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the
central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee
Valley.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will characterize the upper air pattern
over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), with
multiple embedded mid-level impulses poised to traverse the
mid-level troughing regime. A surface low will meander over TX
through the period, resulting in gradual modest low-level moisture
return from the Gulf to the mid-MS Valley region. During the 00-12Z
(late Wednesday into early Thursday morning) time frame, a mid-level
impulse will traverse a broad zonal surface baroclinic zone, serving
as a local lifting source for deep-moist convection. Cooler
temperatures aloft will overspread a marginally moist low-level
airmass, resulting in scant buoyancy and an associated chance for a
few lightning flashes. Buoyancy will be locally higher over the
Mid-MS Valley overnight as low-level moisture return (albeit modest)
will be maximized. A couple of thunderstorms may develop within this
warm-air advection regime as well.

..Squitieri.. 02/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250634
SWODY2
SPC AC 250632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a
couple of strong wind gusts.

... Discussion ...

A mid-level shortwave trough over the Central Plains is forecast to
weaken as it tracks southwest toward the Gulf Coast states during
the day Thursday. At the surface, a low initially located across
central Texas will shift southward during the day, leaving an
elongated area of low pressure stretching east-northeast along a
residual surface front. This boundary is expected to sag slowly
southward through the day, though low-level convergence along the
front appears weak.

... Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast ...

Boundary-layer moisture will be characterized by dewpoints perhaps
as high as mid 60Fs across the northern Gulf Coast decreasing to mid
50Fs across northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. The strongest
instability is expected across Louisiana, where MUCAPE may approach
1000 J/kg. However, forecast soundings across this region indicate a
notable capping inversion between 850 and 700 mb. Further north and
east, the airmass will be characterized by lesser instability but
much weaker capping inversion.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop along and
ahead of the sagging surface front. The overall severe threat should
be limited owing to the meager instability and the weakening nature
of the primary forcing mechanism. Additionally, low-level shear is
notably weaker than previous model runs -- continuing the trend
started yesterday.

Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer shear persists to support
organized linear modes, especially with the stronger convective
elements. While the lack of stronger low-level forcing and meager
low-level buoyancy should prevent a widespread event, the more
robust convective segments will be capable of producing isolated strong/damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251728
SWODY2
SPC AC 251727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.

...Discussion...
An expansive area of northwest flow aloft will extend from the
Rockies to the East Coast on Thursday. High Pressure will be in
place from the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the
Northeast, with a cold front slowly pushing south into the Gulf
Coast states. A leading wave will affect the Appalachians into the
Northeast during the day, with a secondary wave moving into the
southern Plains late.

During the afternoon, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will exist
ahead of this front, from eastern TX across LA, MS, AL, and into GA.
Daytime heating will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to lower
70s, resulting in maximum CAPE values into the 500-750 J/kg range.

While mid and high level winds will be strong with 50+ kt effective
shear, winds in the low levels and convergence will be weak.
Widespread rain will be likely from northern AL and GA into the
Carolinas north of the boundary where a few hundred J/kg elevated
CAPE will be present. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out with
this activity. Given conditionally favorable shear, cooler
temperatures aloft and influence of the upper wave, large hail could
occur should stronger-than-forecast instability develop near/north
of the boundary.

To the south, isolated widely-scattered thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon across MS/AL/GA near the front and perhaps
across the warm sector at peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate
areas of subsidence aloft as winds veer to westerly behind the lead
wave. Given these factors, these storms are expected to be
non-severe.

..Jewell.. 02/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260651
SWODY2
SPC AC 260650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.

... Discussion ...

A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the
Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of
mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup
will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South
Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to
sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida
Peninsula.

Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period
across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist,
gradually shifting south and east through the period. While
thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe
threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and
limited instability.

... Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle ...

Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the
low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary.
Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall
diurnal heating.

Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with
MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear
tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing,
will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are
notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient
for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and
poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized
severe threat.

... Florida Peninsula ...

South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm
development appears possible during the day on Friday across the
Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate
the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb,
although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle
height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated
warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion
will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph
lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening
deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of
focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and
below severe limits.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261727
SWODY2
SPC AC 261725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are
not currently forecast.

...Synopsis...
A diffuse cold front analyzed in mid-morning surface observations
across the southern Appalachians and mid-MS River Valley is expected
to push southeast over the next 24 hours in a tandem with an
upper-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early Friday morning along the front from southern AL and the FL
Panhandle into southern GA, but some abatement through the
early-morning diurnal buoyancy minimum is anticipated.
Re-intensification of lingering convection and/or development of
additional thunderstorms is expected along the FL Peninsula through
the afternoon hours as modest heating yields SBCAPE values around
500 J/kg to perhaps 1000 J/kg across southern FL. Broad-scale ascent
associated with the passing upper wave will persist through the
overnight hours; however, low-level convergence will steadily
diminish along the stalling, frontolytic frontal zone, favoring
mainly isolated to periodically scattered thunderstorms. An
unfavorable displacement of the greater buoyancy across
central/southern FL with the stronger mid-level flow further north
will limit the potential for organized/severe convection.

..Moore.. 02/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270658
SWODY2
SPC AC 270656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and
from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

...Florida...
A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start
of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central
Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may
support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid
afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by
early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida
Peninsula.

...Oklahoma/Northern Texas...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern
Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over
northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of
Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be
southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As
moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface
dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow
corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast
Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast
Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern
Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across
central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with
the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below
severe limits.

...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward
the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across
the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface
temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around
500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon.
The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could
support a strong thunderstorm or two.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271724
SWODY2
SPC AC 271722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula Saturday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms
are also anticipated across portions of northern California into
Oregon and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
A broad northwest flow regime is expected to persist across the
CONUS through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will largely be focused
in proximity to a pair of embedded upper-level shortwave troughs
over the eastern Gulf and off the northern CA coast. At the surface,
a cold front associated with an intensifying cyclone over the
Canadian Prairies will push south and east across the Plains and
Midwest over the next 36-48 hours, eventually stalling across OK and
the Ozark Plateau late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Weak
ascent along this frontal zone will promote isolated thunderstorm
chances.

...Florida...
Mid-morning surface observations depict a cold front drifting
southeast into the northern Gulf and Southeast. This feature is
expected to gradually migrate southward over the next 48 hours as
surface high pressure builds across the Southeast. However, gradual
frontolysis is expected, which will help maintain the moist air mass
building across southern to central FL, where dewpoints have
increased to the upper 60s and low 70s. An upper wave over the
northern Gulf will overspread the FL Peninsula around peak heating
Saturday. Modest broad-scale ascent within a moist, weakly capped,
and fairly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass should promote
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. 30-40 knot mid-level flow
attendant to the upper wave will allow for adequate hodograph
elongation for organized thunderstorms capable of severe hail and
damaging winds. Diminishing low-level convergence along the frontal
zone casts uncertainty on overall storm coverage, but most 12z CAMs
and global guidance show a consistent QPF signal along the
southeastern FL coast where localized sea-breeze convergence/ascent
may increase thunderstorm chances.

....Northern California and adjacent states...
A low-amplitude upper disturbance is noted in morning water-vapor
imagery well off the northern CA coast approaching the crest of the
longwave ridge. This feature will begin moving inland across
northern CA by late Saturday morning, reaching the western Great
Basin by evening/overnight. An influx of moisture from the Pacific
will support deep moistening of profiles across the region. This,
combined with steepening lapse rates/cooling temperatures aloft,
will support favorable buoyancy for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. MUCAPE is forecast to generally be near/below 250
J/kg, but pockets of higher buoyancy (closer to 500 J/kg) appear
possible based on recent CAMs, which may support storms capable of
small hail and gusty winds.

....Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau...
Surface high pressure currently positioned over the Texarkana region
will migrate east/southeast over the next 24 hours in the wake of
the ongoing frontal passage into the northern Gulf/Southeast.
Southerly flow on the western periphery of this high, coupled with
modest lee troughing along the High Plains, will promote modest
moisture return through Saturday evening. Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon within the
low-level warm advection regime with a slight uptick in convection
anticipated late evening/overnight as the approaching cold front
settles into the region. Model consensus suggests buoyancy profiles
will be too limited to support intense convection.

..Moore.. 02/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280639
SWODY2
SPC AC 280638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern
California.

...DISCUSSION...
A subtle shortwave trough will approach the Florida Peninsula on
Sunday. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across south Florida Sunday afternoon near a
quasi-stationary front. Further west into the southern and central
Plains, elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening into
the overnight within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, from
southeast Kansas southwestward across parts of Oklahoma. Finally,
isolated thunderstorms may also develop Sunday afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves inland across northern California. No severe
threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday
night.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281716
SWODY2
SPC AC 281714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California
Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A strong cyclone traversing eastern Canada this morning will be
followed by strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS tomorrow. A weak trailing cold front
associated with the Canadian cyclone will gradually migrate south
into the Southeast and southern Plains. Isentropic ascent over the
frontal zone will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of
OK into southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Although the kinematic environment is
conditionally favorable for organized convection, meager moisture
return and poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate severe
thunderstorm potential. There is a low chance for a strong
thunderstorm across central OK during the evening hours per latest
RRFS solutions, which depict better low-level moisture/buoyancy into
OK and are aligned with recent RAP solutions environmentally.
However, the consensus among other HREF members and calibrated
guidance is that the RRFS is the outlier solution, which
substantially limits confidence in the severe potential.

Elsewhere, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
within a residual frontal zone across the southern FL Peninsula
where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in
place. Along the West Coast, an upper-level trough pushing into
northern CA and southern OR will support isolated thunderstorms as
instability increases due to cooling temperatures aloft within a
fairly moist air mass.

..Moore.. 02/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010635
SWODY2
SPC AC 010634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great
Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become
quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high
pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the
top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will
result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the
evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from
northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern
edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will
be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into
northern Missouri.

Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the
vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the
central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south
Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011713
SWODY2
SPC AC 011712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper low recently observed off the northern CA coast will
continue to track eastward across the northern Great Basin and into
the central High Plains through Monday night. Broad-scale ascent
combined with cool temperatures aloft and a modest influx of
mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms from NV
into the western Plains. Buoyancy will be maximized at peak heating
across western to central WY, and with 30-40 knot mid-level flow in
place, a few updrafts may be strong enough to support small hail.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk is low owing to
generally meager buoyancy profiles (characterized by lifted indices
around -1 to -2 C) depicted in most morning guidance. Further east,
diminishing thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across eastern OK into AR with additional development expected
within a warm advection regime later in the day and overnight across
KS, MO, and IL. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across southern FL within an unstable air mass, but limited
ascent and weak winds through much of the CAPE-bearing layer should
limit the potential for organized storms.

..Moore.. 03/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020658
SWODY2
SPC AC 020657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and
eastern Kansas.

...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma
during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from
western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021723
SWODY2
SPC AC 021721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of
multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the
southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and
southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone
will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the
second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front
will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on
Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX
Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon.

...Northwest TX to eastern KS...
Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears
slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse
rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak
convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will
increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south,
with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective
development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast
TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low,
there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable
environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated
convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest
OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight.
Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through
the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of
the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream
in the early morning Wednesday.

..Grams.. 03/02/2026

$$

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