ACUS02 KWNS 220534
SWODY2
SPC AC 220532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central/Southern Plains...

A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist
across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal
boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High
Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into
southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward
transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central
Plains.

Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing
precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread
convection across KS, while other place morning convection further
south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially
have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may
hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which
could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate
boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and
modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will
support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk
(strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled
frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains
along the dry line.

Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline
across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints
will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest
isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be
possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary
layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given
nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline
is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended
northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage.

..Leitman.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221733
SWODY2
SPC AC 221731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central Plains to the southern High Plains...
Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the
Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field
forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with
the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially
a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level
southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a
seasonably moist boundary layer.

While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day
-- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder
destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to
2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm
development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during
the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of
producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be
expected.

Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential
-- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the
Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline.
With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient
to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and
locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms.
Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms
spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall
severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally.

...Parts of the Southeast...
A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across
the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level
lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina
vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain
relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the
degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along
with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer
expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some
evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally
strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection --
and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset.

..Goss.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030600
SWODY2
SPC AC 030558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of
Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado
potential.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend
from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves
across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH
Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure
developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This
feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH
late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur
over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly
deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a
rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells
with tornado potential.

Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of
northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal,
elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper
trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into
central TX.

...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley...
Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red
River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient
instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will
favor hail potential.

During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector,
which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated
over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation
across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will
experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for
a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate
effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued
northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH
Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the
front with access to unstable air mass.

Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge
of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold
front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into
central TX.

..Jewell.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071738
SWODY2
SPC AC 071736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.

Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.

Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111713
SWODY2
SPC AC 111711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black
Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday.

...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills...
A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern
British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height
falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to
strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring
temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for
scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic
profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from
this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the
boundary layer cools.

...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest...
A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will
strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will
result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height
falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable
synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture
and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality
moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms
develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than
small hail.

..Bentley.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120524
SWODY2
SPC AC 120522

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes...
Isolated, elevated thunderstorms are expected to be the predominant
convective scenario on Sunday. An amplifying shortwave trough will
move east across northern portions of the Great Plains and Upper
Midwest. This will yield deepening of a surface cyclone from the
central Plains to Lake Superior. Despite this amplification, poor
quality boundary-layer moisture return relative to a stout EML
appears likely to inhibit surface-based storm development through
the period. Thin, uncapped buoyancy will probably be relegated to
parcels around 700 mb. This will expand east during the day from the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Small hail is possible, mainly
across the Upper MS Valley, where fast flow will exist in the
cloud-bearing layer.

...CO to MO...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in CO by late afternoon Sunday
within a post-frontal environment characterized by limited low-level
moisture and meager buoyancy. Very isolated thunderstorms may
develop Sunday night into Monday morning with eastward extent across
KS to MO. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop as 700-mb
frontogenesis strengthens within a highly diffluent upper-level flow
regime, atop an increasingly post-frontal stable surface.

..Grams.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121702
SWODY2
SPC AC 121700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with
a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a
shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS
Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this
trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains,
with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward
into OK.

Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited
ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening
of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability
to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting
isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability
should preclude any severe threat.

..Jewell.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130545
SWODY2
SPC AC 130543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large
hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes
towards the ON/QC border, supporting gradual deepening of a surface
cyclone from 995 to 990 mb. In its wake, a separate shortwave
impulse and intense mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the
northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. A surface cold
front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then
southwestward through the Mid-South by late afternoon Monday.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States...
While guidance has largely been consistent with synoptic-scale
pattern over the past several days, large spread exists in the
degree of boundary-layer heating on Monday afternoon ahead of the
surface cold front. For example, the 00Z NSSL-ARW and HRW-FV3 are
10-15 F colder with warm-moist sector surface temps compared to the
00Z HRRR and HRW-ARW. These latter models simulate multiple
long-track supercells. This heating discrepancy, along with low
confidence in the aggressive low-level moistening indicated by most
guidance beneath an expansive EML, mitigates a categorical upgrade
this cycle. But all three hazards have been highlighted with level
2-SLGT risk probabilities.

Overall expectation is for a ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew
points to advect as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley. If robust boundary-layer heating indeed occurs, this would support MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg. The initial presence of the EML may delay storm
development along the front until mid afternoon. But guidance
consensus suggests at least scattered thunderstorms should form in
the Central to Upper OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls
increase atop the modestly convergent surface front. The approach of
an intense mid-level jet will support fast-moving convection, along
with effective bulk shear above 60 kts. Despite veered surface
winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged.

A few supercells seem plausible in this setup, a couple of which may
become long-tracked. These appear most probable across the southeast
OH to northern WV vicinity, where tornado potential should be
maximized during the early evening. Otherwise, a mix of large hail
and damaging wind swaths are expected. East of the higher terrain in MD/northern VA, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support
isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail, before convection
wanes/becomes increasingly elevated Monday night.

..Grams.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150539
SWODY2
SPC AC 150537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central
Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from
the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A
southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough will drift towards
the southern CA coast. A pair of lee cyclones will develop near the
Black Hills and the CO/KS border area by Wednesday evening.

...Central Great Plains...
Just-in-time modified moisture return from south TX is anticipated
by early evening, yielding potential for isolated high-based
thunderstorm development near the southwest KS/far northwest OK
border area. This portion of the dryline, to the east-southeast of
the aforementioned cyclone, will have the best chance of sustaining
deep convection with overlap of the low-level thermal ridge/weak
buoyancy. Substantial veering of the wind profile with height could
support a high-based supercell or two with severe hail/wind.

The 00Z HRW-FV3 is a distinct outlier in indicating potential for a
discrete supercell deeper into the evening across south-central KS,
that impinges on greater low-level moisture amid enlarged low-level
hodograph curvature. Bulk of guidance otherwise suggests a
substantial increase in MLCIN after sunset as the low-level jet
intensifies from west TX into KS, with convection probably
struggling given the sub-optimal moisture relative to the stout EML.

Elevated convection should form later Wednesday night into early
morning Thursday, along the leading edge of the 700-mb warm front
and towards the exit region of the low-level jet. Although this
convection may remain rooted near 700 mb, favorable speed shear
through the cloud-bearing layer should offer a risk of isolated
severe hail overnight towards the Lower MO Valley.

..Grams.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151724
SWODY2
SPC AC 151723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central
Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada
before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of
California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward
across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave
disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the
period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains.

...Central Great Plains...
Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the
central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN
and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement
has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline
across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given
the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be
for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through
the end of the period Thursday morning.

Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further
south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the
early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of
a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from
the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region
could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and
ample shear/CAPE.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from
northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern
Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe
given weak shear profiles.

..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160546
SWODY2
SPC AC 160545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CORN BELT STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from
late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the Corn
Belt States. Large to very large hail, a couple tornadoes, and
localized damaging winds may occur.

...Synopsis...
A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will drift east from the southern Prairie Provinces to the
Lower CO Valley. A lee surface cyclone will be anchored over the
central High Plains. Minor, triple-point surface waves are expected
along the baroclinic zone in far northeast KS and southern MN on
Thursday afternoon.

...Corn Belt States...
Along the leading edge of a stout EML and 700-mb warm front,
isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Thursday across parts of the lower MO Valley. This activity may pose
a threat for isolated severe hail before weakening towards midday.

Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection and convergence along the front will be primary drivers of convective
potential from late afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance spread
is quite large for a D2 forecast with the thermodynamic setup ahead
of the front, especially across IA to the northeast of the
triple-point dryline intersection in northeast KS. The 00Z NAM is
around 20 F cooler with surface temps at peak heating relative to
the bulk of guidance that have very warm and well-mixed boundary
layers. This has substantial impact on the spatial extent and
amplitude of MLCAPE/MLCIN ahead of the front. It seems probable that
mid to upper 50s surface dew points will spread as far north as
southern MN. With a lean towards the more well-mixed guidance, this
should support a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from
1500-2500 J/kg.

The most probable signal for late-afternoon storm development is
along the baroclinic zone from southeast NE into southern MN,
coincident with supercell wind profiles. Weak low-level winds
initially in the southeast NE region could support a long-track
supercell capable of producing a very large hail swath. Otherwise,
severe to sporadic significant severe hail seems plausible with late
afternoon to early evening storms, along with localized severe gusts
and a low-confidence tornado threat.

Coverage of elevated storms may remain subdued on Thursday night.
Despite a strong low-level jet across OK/KS to the Mid-MS Valley, restrengthening of the EML may inhibit sustained storms.
Conditionally, the environment will support elevated supercells with
a primary threat of large hail.

..Grams.. 04/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western
Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New
Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad,
strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into
Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower
tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm
front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at
the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR
border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should
be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some
2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially
EF3+).

...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas...
As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very
unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the
ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s
with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain
along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and
early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not
anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to
overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of
the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high
resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may
traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The
combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z
guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone
during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These
supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and
0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to
intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any
of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the
environment supports a tornado threat.

A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring
greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal
boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak,
but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with
minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete,
open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more
dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the
Day 1 timeframe.

...Missouri into the Ohio Valley...
Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther
northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into
western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development
are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared
environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of
storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay
along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat
with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to
the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind
gusts will be possible with any storms in this region.

...West Texas to Central Texas...
Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast
across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night
and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with
very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will
support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+")
early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and
orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101708
SWODY2
SPC AC 101707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from
the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far
southeast Georgia and northern Florida.

...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia...
A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the
southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level
front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification
of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along
the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2
forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact
with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later
tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While
these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface
heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should
assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during
the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect
which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday.

Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in
substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will
result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by
later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger
cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models
this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain
mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk,
but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North
Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s
dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a
tornado is possible.

Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a
primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time.

...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida...
Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast
Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings
show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer
extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit
instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will
support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms
could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large
hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain
isolated.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110539
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to
the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday.

...Big Horns to the Black Hills...
A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress
across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will
overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating.
Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent
will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt
of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped,
high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic
profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a
threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection
wanes after sunset.

...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest...
As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central
Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return
relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will
be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with
the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential
appears limited.

..Grams.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131709
SWODY2
SPC AC 131708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND OHIO INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Monday from
mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
An upper low will deepen from Lake Superior into eastern Ontario on
Monday, with an amplifying upper trough from the northern Plains
into the OH Valley late.

At the surface, a cold front will extend south from the Ontario low,
affecting OH and KY prior to 00Z. A narrow zone of mid to upper 50s
F dewpoints will spread northeastward ahead of the front, with
pockets of heating. This will lead to 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE from KY
into WV, with lower values northward across OH and into western PA.

Gradual height falls along with increasing midlevel moisture will
overspread the diurnally prepared boundary layer over KY, southern
OH and WV, with scattered strong to severe storms developing by late
afternoon.

Strong deep-layer shear will favor cellular activity, with a couple
supercells possible. Despite the primarily veered/westerly flow, any
rightward propagation off the hodograph will result in favorable
SRH, possibly supporting a brief tornado. Otherwise, hail is
expected with the stronger cores, with localized wind damage.

..Jewell.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140529
SWODY2
SPC AC 140527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Northeast...
Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday
through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb
temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of
an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the
Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary
layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level
lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably
remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to
be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak
convection at peak heating across southern New England.

...Southwest...
A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the
Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate
large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate
shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast.
Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across
northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak
deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential.

..Grams.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141705
SWODY2
SPC AC 141704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Northeast...
A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday.
Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the
day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered
thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying
conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe
low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be
possible.

...Southwest...
A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of
mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern
Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move
across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies.
Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will
allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the
northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear
profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe.

..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the
southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late
Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and
isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards.

...Synopsis...
A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja
CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba
into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the
eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the
Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will
occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI
into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress
south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe
storms on Friday.

...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX...
Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday
afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the
approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with
clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from
western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and
wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front
undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across
OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as
hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel.

Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection
late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of
severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized
wind potential.

...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley...
Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by
midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient
instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther
south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from
southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime
heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate
scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across
IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the
surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered
hail is likely as well.

..Jewell.. 04/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180542
SWODY2
SPC AC 180540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central
Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across
Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday.
Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley
through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough
over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads
eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest
extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into
the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist
warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls
overspreading the region near/after 00z.

...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon...

Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary
will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms
Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along
the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will
remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft
could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail
diurnally.

...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening...

Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the
cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level
jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in
forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a
corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX
and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could
pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may
become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into
the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters
of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime
hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any
linear development as well.

..Leitman.. 04/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181746
SWODY2
SPC AC 181745

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from
Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may
occur during the day across the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the
southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong
southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the
Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec.
Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast.

At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New
England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front
during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but
strong mean wind environment.

The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow
band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection
with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms,
but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe
potential.

...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley...
Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and
extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e
advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of
this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall
it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time.

To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with
a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front.
This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX
through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into
the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the
remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated
hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong
deep-layer shear.

Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to
cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over
west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as
the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening.
Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and
central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the
shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected
with a linear storm mode.

..Jewell.. 04/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190536
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the
lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging
wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern
Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois.

...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley...

A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High
Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period,
becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes
vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest
deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread
portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a
500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around
21-00z.

At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period
will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into
southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the
region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across
MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer
moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low
60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from
eastern OK/AR southward.

Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of
destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of
precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger
destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse
rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the
day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward
east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale
into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold
front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm
mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping
low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km
SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be
possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an
eastward progressing line.

..Leitman.. 04/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211721
SWODY2
SPC AC 211720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with
multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough
which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may
result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for
isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday
afternoon.

...Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of
a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to
moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline.
Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be
sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid
to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough
overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support
high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and
severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where
better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where
intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion.

Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving
east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly
enhanced low-level jet.

...Northern Panhandle into Kansas...
A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the
OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture
recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for
moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30
knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep
lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential
for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

...IA/WI/IL...
A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley
into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent
isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to
midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above
700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt.
Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to
around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail
or damaging wind gusts.

...Carolinas...
A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move
southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the
afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer
ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500
J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height,
support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be
sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse
rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells
capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In
addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have
locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large
hail/damaging wind threat.

..Bentley.. 04/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040600
SWODY2
SPC AC 040559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SABINE VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night
from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley.

...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward
across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large
MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex
northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a
very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in
the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in
place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe
threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
are expected to be the initial threats.

The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot
low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into
eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km
shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for
supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the
low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have
0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will
support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line
segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong
tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana
to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter.

As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind
gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become
increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components
of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The
severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late
afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central
Gulf Coast states.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on
Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at
the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into
the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky
into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the
instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across
the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the
approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the
instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on
Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support
embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats
are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated
tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040614
SWODY2
SPC AC 040612

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night
from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley.

...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward
across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large
MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex
northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a
very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in
the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in
place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe
threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
are expected to be the initial threats.

The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot
low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into
eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km
shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for
supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the
low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have
0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will
support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line
segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong
tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana
to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter.

As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind
gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become
increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components
of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The
severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late
afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central
Gulf Coast states.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on
Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at
the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into
the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky
into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the
instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across
the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the
approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the
instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on
Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support
embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats
are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated
tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041715
SWODY2
SPC AC 041713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night
from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the
mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward
through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An
elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer
flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface
low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move
northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts,
and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front
during the day Saturday and into Saturday night.

...East Texas into Middle Tennessee...
Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the
frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This
convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which
may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the
longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe
weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into
western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM
guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from
mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a
slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This
would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms
and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However,
guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last
several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max.
Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north,
with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual
southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday.

Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be
more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east
of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities
farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with
embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and
into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into
Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be
associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of
the primary frontal development.

...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians...
The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern
Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on
overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance
varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight
with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with
the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern
Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some
instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather
threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate
to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely
once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent.

..Bentley.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday.
A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley,
as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and
southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near
the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move
slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper
60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s
F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the
front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day,
due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of
this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create
strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama
during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will
support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have
a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning
and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are
curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2
range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible
with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to
remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments
will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into
early evening, but should become more isolated as instability
weakens across the region.

Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak
will support some storm organization. However, instability is
forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat
will be marginal.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051704
SWODY2
SPC AC 051703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ALABAMA AND INTO PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a positive-tilt trough will move slowly east out of the
southern Plains and across the lower to mid MS Valley, with
gradually increasing southwesterlies aloft across the Gulf Coast
states. A weak surface low will move out of MS and across northern
AL during the day, then northeastward across the western Carolinas
overnight. A rain-reinforced front will extend south from the low,
from northern AL into eastern MS and LA, with another boundary
extending from TN into VA. A very moist air mass will exist across
the warm sector, with moderate shear supporting scattered severe
storms.

...Eastern MS and LA...AL...
A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing along the cold front early
on Sunday where MUCAPE will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Severe potential will be mitigated somewhat due to the relatively
warm profiles aloft, however, veering winds with height and around
50 kt at 850 mb may support embedded supercells within the line,
with both wind and brief tornado potential. Depending on the degree
of outflow/convective contamination early in the day, a slightly
better corridor of tornado threat could materialize.

..Jewell.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061715
SWODY2
SPC AC 061714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across
parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on
Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase
with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending
south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained.

In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt
low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200
m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to
around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the
western Carolinas into central GA at midday.

Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold
front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift
encounter the warming air mass to the east.

The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft,
which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing
and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe
storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled
out with the strongest storms during the afternoon.

..Jewell.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070551
SWODY2
SPC AC 070549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida
and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf
during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the
overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move
southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther
west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the
northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

...Southern Florida and the Keys...
Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air
mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern
Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak
instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm
intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective
shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough,
which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of
locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys.
However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave
over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms
offshore.

...Northern High Plains...
Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse
rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear
increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the
severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany
convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through
the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the
lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging
wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern
Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois.

...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states...
A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX
Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading
speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over
OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it
develops northward out of OK and into IA as well.

The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR
and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and
extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate
southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with
low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front.

Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and
IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating
will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold
front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing.

Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with
an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO
border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as
the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the
most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO
where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel
temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support
supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability.

The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening
as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least
isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and
southward along the MS River.

..Jewell.. 04/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200518
SWODY2
SPC AC 200517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday
morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern
Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another
upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop
eastward to the northern Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS
Valleys/Southeast TX...

A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the
Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will
move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with
a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor
of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the
upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and
will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger
storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts.

The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over
the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality
boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far
south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear
will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of
locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical
shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized
updrafts, precluding severe probabilities.

...Northern Plains...

Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support
steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains
vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the
afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small
hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the
western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight
eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing
low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early
Tuesday morning.

..Leitman.. 04/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201706
SWODY2
SPC AC 201704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday
morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern
Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another
upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop
eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low
pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with
a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the
north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front
will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may
start to move north by the end of the period across south-central
Texas.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS
Valleys/Southeast TX...
A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the
Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability
despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical
shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the
threat minimal overall.

Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates,
and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability
farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical
shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to
develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong
gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will
likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts,
precluding severe probabilities.

...Northern Plains...
Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support
steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains
vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains,
scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could
support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across
southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be
strongest.

Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD
into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level
jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday
morning.

..Bentley.. 04/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210555
SWODY2
SPC AC 210554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across
portions of the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow will prevail across the south-central and southeast states on Tuesday. A belt of stronger
westerlies aloft will reside across the northern tier of the U.S. as
a series of upper troughs migrate eastward from the northern Plains
to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over Quebec and an
associated cold front will be located from the Hudson Valley into
the NC/VA Piedmont. Further west, low-level moist advection on south/southeasterly low level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture
to spread northward from the Lower MS Valley into the southern High
Plains.

...Southern Plains to southern KS...

Modest Gulf moisture will spread north and west through the day to
near the NM/TX border and across much of OK into southern KS.
Forecast guidance suggest a weak shortwave impulse will eject across
the southern Rockies in modest west/southwesterly flow aloft. While
height tendencies will remain neutral, precluding much in the way of
surface cyclogenesis, a sharpening dryline is forecast to extend
from southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles, then southward near the
NM/TX border. Low-level moist advection beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg).
While deep-layer flow will remain modest, vertically veering wind
profiles will contribute to supercell wind profiles, with
elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated supercells will pose a risk
for large hail. Furthermore, strong heating will result in steep
low-level lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer, supporting
isolated strong to severe outflow gusts. As a southerly low-level
jet increases during the evening, some potential will exist for
convection to develop into an eastward developing MCS. If this
occurs, some severe potential could persist eastward away from the
dryline into portions of western north Texas and western OK.

...IA/WI/IL...

A stalled frontal boundary will extent across the Mid-MO Valley into
southern WI. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent
along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm
development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow
will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb,
supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold
temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around
500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail.

...Carolinas...

A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will develop
southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the
afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer
ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500
J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height,
support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be
sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse
rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells
capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060601
SWODY2
SPC AC 060559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of
northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Northern Florida/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley on Monday, with southwest flow located over
eastern parts of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. An MCS will
likely be ongoing near the front early in the day from the western
Florida Panhandle northeastward into western Georgia. Ahead of the
MCS, a very moist airmass is forecast with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. Warming surface temperatures across this
moist airmass will increase instability, with MLCAPE likely reaching
1000 to 1200 J/kg by midday. This will help to maintain convective
development within the MCS.

In addition, a mid-level jet will move northeastward across the
Southeast on Monday. The right entrance region of this feature will
overspread the moist sector. In response, model forecasts suggest
that a rather focused 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will develop
across northern Florida and southern Georgia from late morning into
the early afternoon. Near this low-level jet, 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range.
This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, should support an
isolated tornado threat with any supercell that can develop.
Supercells and organized bowing structures may also produce isolated
severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to decrease by
early evening, as instability weakens across the moist airmass, and
as the stronger flow shifts northeastward into the western Atlantic.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080521
SWODY2
SPC AC 080519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle
Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms
are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the
northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys.
Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates
will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated
thunderstorms along the front during the evening/overnight hours.
While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the weak instability
should limit storm intensity.

Farther west, ascent in the left-exit region of a
southeastward-moving upper-level jet, combined with steep deep-layer
lapse rates/marginal instability, will support isolated
thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains.

..Weinman.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081714
SWODY2
SPC AC 081712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper
Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not
expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the
northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low
will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A
cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a
warm front to the northeast.

Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates
will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated
thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight
hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where
slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts
cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm
intensity.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a
mid-level jet streak overspreads the region.

..Bentley.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090600
SWODY2
SPC AC 090559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positively tiled large-scale trough will advance southeastward
from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the
period. Within the base of the trough, a 70-80-kt west-northwesterly
midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In
response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward
along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front.

...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley...
Along/ahead of the front, ample diurnal heating of the partially
modified Gulf moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (upwards
of 8 C/km) will contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As ascent in
the left-exit region of the midlevel jet impinges on the
destabilizing air mass along/ahead of the front, a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Mid-South during the
afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
long/straight hodograph) oriented perpendicular to the front will
favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially. The primary
concern with these storms will be large hail to around 1.5-1.75
inches.

As storms track/develop southeastward amid steep boundary-layer
lapse rates, strengthening/expanding cold pools and a more
boundary-parallel component of the midlevel flow will promote
upscale growth into clusters and eventually a broken line into the
evening hours. As a result, damaging wind gusts will become an
increasing concern, before low-level static stability increases
(owing to nocturnal cooling) with southeastward extent.

..Weinman.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091712
SWODY2
SPC AC 091710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and
Tennessee Valley on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the
central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern
CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will
overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At
the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward
along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front.

...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley...
Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and
substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability
(1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley.
A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by
early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the
upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered
thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky
and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest
instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to
northern Georgia where the slight risk is present.

Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells
with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will
have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed
boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual
upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary
damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the
evening.

..Bentley.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100535
SWODY2
SPC AC 100534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of
the Southeast from late morning through the afternoon Friday.

...Eastern NC vicinity...
A leading shortwave impulse rotating through the basal portion of a
broader eastern U.S. longwave trough will yield strengthening
forcing for ascent during the late morning. Some 00Z HREF members,
notably the NSSL and FV3 indicate thunderstorm development
increasing early in the day within the low-level warm conveyor ahead
of a deepening but weak surface cyclone. Should this occur, it would
be ill-timed with respect to peak boundary-layer heating and
displaced east of the moderate mid-level lapse rate plume. But it
would be coincident with modifying moisture return characterized by
mid to upper 50s dew points over eastern NC.

Other guidance indicates a separate round of afternoon storm
development confined to near the surface cyclone in the eastern
Piedmont of NC, while a pronounced mid-level dry slot limits storm
development with southward extent into SC/GA. The degree of surface
heating along the northwest extent of the weak buoyancy plume is
quite uncertain. But mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and
moderate deep-layer shear may yield isolated severe hail and locally
strong gusts within afternoon storms.

...North FL...
Greater boundary-layer heating is anticipated ahead of the trailing
portion of the cold front that extends into the northeast Gulf.
Consensus of guidance suggests this heating will aid in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon, south of the mid-level
dry slot. While low-level flow will be veered and weak ahead of the
front, pronounced deep-layer speed shear is expected amid a 60-70 kt
500-mb jet. This should favor mid-level rotation in a few cells with
a threat of isolated large hail and localized damaging winds. This
activity should shift off the Atlantic Coast or weaken over land by
early evening.

..Grams.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161723
SWODY2
SPC AC 161721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from
late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the
eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large
hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks.

...Synopsis...
A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into
the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad
southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the
central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop
across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending
southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest.
The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to
be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and
evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota.

...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into
Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into
the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected
as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across
eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be
characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across
portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to
develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support
supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable
of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a
tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some
undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training
cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening
while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with
eastward extent.

A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern
Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward
but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable
wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind,
and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170552
SWODY2
SPC AC 170551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the parts of the
Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late
afternoon Friday into Friday night. Large hail and isolated severe
gusts will be the main hazards with this activity.

...Synopsis...

A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will pivot south and east
across portions of the north-central to western U.S. on Friday. A
swath of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow will stretch from the southern Rockies
to the Great Lakes ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low
pressure will develop northeast from the KS/MO/IA vicinity Friday
morning, to southern Ontario/Quebec by early Saturday. As this
occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across portions of the
Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes and southern Plains. A weak secondary
surface low likely will develop across west TX, where a dryline will
extend southward from the eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend region.


Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer
moisture northward ahead of these surface features and beneath fast
mid/upper southwesterly flow. This will support scattered severe
storms late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours from portions
of the southern Plains to the Great Lakes.

...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley to Great Lakes...

Elevated thunderstorms north of a warm front will likely be ongoing
during the morning into the afternoon across WI/northern MI. This
activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail.

Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough embedded within the northern
branch of the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will shift east
across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the
evening/overnight. This will facilitate the eastward progression of
the surface front through the period, creating a focus for
thunderstorm development. However, strong capping will limit
development along the front, likely until closer to 00z, when
stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the surface boundary and
cooling aloft ensues. Thunderstorms will likely remain elevated atop
the strong EML in the 850-700 mb layer, and will likely become
undercut by the surface cold front given boundary-parallel flow
through the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse
rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support organized convection
capable of producing large hail. With time, cells may become
training clusters, posing some isolated risk for damaging gusts.

...Southern Plains Vicinity...

As a surface low develops across west TX, a triple point will emerge
near the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. A stout EML
will preclude convective development for much of the day. Near the
triple point and northeast along the advancing cold front, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms should form in the 22-00z time frame.
Supercell wind profiles with large MUCAPE, very steep lapse rates,
and elongated hodographs suggests initial supercells will pose a
risk for large to very large hail through early evening. Thereafter, boundary-parallel flow will result in clustering/training as
convection also becomes undercut by the front. Damaging gusts also
may occur with initial supercells given a well-mixed boundary
layer/steep low-level lapse rates beneath the EML. Additionally,
some strong gust potential could occur into the Ozarks vicinity as
clustering ensues, but hail is expected to be the main concern.

..Leitman.. 04/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230522
SWODY2
SPC AC 230520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern
Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma.
Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
activity.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper
flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection
from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across
parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm
advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending
southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a
frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow
boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to
reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed
convection evolves into the Day 2 period.

Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more
modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains.
While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35
kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west
TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further
north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow
may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds.

With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX,
potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or
redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered
thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible
with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become
more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a
25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities
across an expanded area.

..Leitman.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231722
SWODY2
SPC AC 231721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern
Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma.
Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this
activity.

...Synopsis...
A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail
across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is
progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough
moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern
New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to
pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast
through the second half of the period.

At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a
baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper
Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the
background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast
over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the
trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to
mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and
South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening
across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the
dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm
activity.

...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and
northern/western Texas...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and
potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas
convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms
-- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may
persist through the day.

By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to
moderate destabilization, additional storm
development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and
southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While
deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering
winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level
rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging
winds can be expected with the strongest cells.

Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater
potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern
Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the
surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly
stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a
tornado during the afternoon/early evening.

Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening,
spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a
low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for
hail/wind may persist through the evening.

..Goss.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma,
northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and
evening.

...Southern Plains...

An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the
building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10
to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to
meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the
surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into
northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also
will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance
suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be
ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is
uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend
across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially
where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries
will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30
kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where
stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could
support sporadic strong gusts.

...OH Valley...

An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada
and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft
will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a
surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move
across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest
boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest
destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain
fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few
stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small
hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.

..Leitman.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma,
northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and
the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface
cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low
develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will
advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys,
and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area.

Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will
deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California
Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify
across the central U.S. through the period.

...Southern Plains...
Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of
the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front.
Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should
support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon,
particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate
afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale
ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of
hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development
expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain
convection through the overnight hours.

...Elsewhere...
Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms
capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected
across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and
ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is
expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any
severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local.

..Goss.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250553
SWODY2
SPC AC 250551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the
southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east,
mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east
through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and
into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high
pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough.
As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the
eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten
across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward
moisture transport.

...Southern High Plains...
As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will
strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely
lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front
from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This
ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward
moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus
for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across
the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this
time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several
additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However,
there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat
across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and
adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy
and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to
be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may
be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and
perhaps a tornado.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251730
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S.
Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves
into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low
makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada.

At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across
the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains.

...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas...
Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the
period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to
Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward
progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty
with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL
risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm
development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional
potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will
likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of
early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained.

..Goss.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260602
SWODY2
SPC AC 260600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
evening/night.

...Discussion...
A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the
Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level
trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this
occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer
low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens
across the High Plains.

This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the
Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east
of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong
instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant
inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser
inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp
dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development
along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable
environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather
hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but
coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time.

Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities
increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a
few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and
perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat
for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively
small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies
after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing
low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm
longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as
forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open
warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly
exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2
percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a
considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms
capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening
and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as
isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening
low-level jet.

..Bentley.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261719
SWODY2
SPC AC 261718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and
central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of
a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern
Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary
surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains,
with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The
primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by
12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend
through the southern High Plains.

...Northern Great Plains to NE...
Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially
Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level
diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two
corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early
evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead
of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will
likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but
adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with
low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly
mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will
be confined though and convection will likely become predominately
elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is
anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing
into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat,
with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a
linear cluster into western/central SD.

...KS to west TX...
A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A
plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile
will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent,
outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous.
Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less,
outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening.

..Grams.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270600
SWODY2
SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the
Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large
hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected.

...Synopsis...
A strong (~75 knot) mid-level jet streak will advance from the
central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a
surface low will deepen across the Upper Midwest with an eastward
advancing dryline to its south and a cold front to the
west-southwest. A warm front will extend east of this surface low
and move rapidly north through the day, spreading mid 60s dewpoints
across much of the Upper Midwest.

...MN/IA/WI...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
north of a warm front across Minnesota and Wisconsin amid moderate
isentropic ascent. Isolated large hail will be possible from these
storms. A surface low will be located somewhere near eastern South
Dakota and will start to advance east during the morning. This
surface low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day (perhaps
to the low 990s mb range) as it moves toward the Twin Cities. There
is a consistent signal for thunderstorms to develop along the cold
front as it intersects the surface low/dryline in west-central
Minnesota Monday afternoon. After some initial hail threat, these
storms will likely become quickly linear along the front with an
increasing severe wind threat. Strong low-level shear will also
favor some line-embedded tornadoes, particularly if there area any
areas within the line which become more favorably oriented to the
low-level shear vector.

Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline
from southern Minnesota to west-central Iowa during the afternoon on
Monday. 00Z CAM guidance is not overly bullish with convective
development south of the MN/IA border, likely due to relatively weak convergence along the dryline in western Iowa from most high
resolution guidance. However, the lack of convection from much of
the guidance does not seem realistic considering the overall
pattern. ECMWF/GFS/NAM are fairly consistent with a deepening
surface low across Minnesota and moderate to strong height falls
across the dryline. The southern extent of the previous Day 3
moderate risk corresponds well to the southern extent of the more
favorable height falls, and convective precipitation signal from the
ECMWF/GFS. Therefore, no adjustments to the southern extent of the
moderate risk were deemed necessary. However the moderate risk was
expanded slightly westward to account for the expectation for
earlier convective initiation (19-21Z) than shown by most guidance.
Given very strong effective shear and over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, expect
any supercells which develop to become quickly severe with a threat
for all severe weather hazards.

As the surface low across Minnesota deepens the low-level jet is
also forecast to strengthen across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
This will elongate low-level hodographs and support an increasing
tornado threat during the evening. STP values of 3 to 5 are common
across much of the warm sector ahead of anticipated storms with some
guidance indicating values of 7 to 10. Therefore, any mature,
discrete supercells which can form and maintain within the open warm
sector on Monday late afternoon/evening will pose a threat for
strong to potentially intense tornadoes.

...Eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to West Texas...
Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but
subtle height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector could
result in isolated to scattered supercell development Monday
afternoon. A secondary area of higher severe weather probabilities
may exist from portions of West Texas into southwest Oklahoma where
the nocturnally strengthening low-level jet could support scattered
supercell development Monday evening. However, weak height rises
cast some doubt on storm coverage during the evening, precluding
higher probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271734
SWODY2
SPC AC 271733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest on Monday into Monday night, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt, upper-level trough will consist of multiple
embedded shortwave impulses, moving east-northeast from the central
High Plains to the Upper Midwest. A belt of 70+ kt 500-mb
southwesterlies will be present from the central Great Plains to the
Upper MS Valley on Monday afternoon. Primary surface cyclone should
deepen slightly during the day as it advances from eastern SD to the
Upper Great Lakes. A dryline will extend from the Mid-MO Valley
south-southwest into west TX. A cold front will overtake the dryline
as it surges southeast Monday night.

...Upper Midwest...
After coordination with affected WFOs, primary adjustments have
occurred along the southern extent of the severe probabilities to
account for a more conditional, but still potentially significant
severe threat.

An arc of elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from
ND across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated large hail will be possible
with these morning storms as they move east-northeast. Additional
elevated storms will redevelop towards midday/early afternoon to the
northeast of the aforementioned surface low. This will slow the
advancement of the surface warm front into central MN, but
strengthen differential surface heating across the baroclinic zone,
with greater warming nosing north from NE into southeast SD.
Surface-based storm development should occur by mid-afternoon across
a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into southwest/west-central MN along
the dryline to surface low. Large hail should be the primary initial
threat, but cells may congeal into linear clusters, especially
near/across the warm front. A mix of hail/wind/embedded tornadoes is
likely, with the latter increasing with southern/eastern extent
during late afternoon owing to stronger low-level shear across
southeast MN/northeast IA into western WI.

Open warm-sector storm development ahead of the dryline is nebulous
with low confidence on the degree of ascent ahead of the dryline
given the synoptic setup. Conditionally, both the buoyancy/shear
parameter space is volatile and supportive of potential for multiple long-track, tornadic supercells. Timing of mid-level height falls
tends to favor the evening period after peak heating but CAM
signals, outside of the 12Z FV3, are sparse. Greater large-scale
ascent appears focused from far northeast IA into WI. This region
remains the most favorable for discrete warm-sector development
during the evening. Otherwise, upstream linear clusters from
southern/eastern MN will likely spread across northern/central WI
into parts of Upper MI with a mixed mode of all hazards persisting,
before eventually weakening overnight.

...Eastern KS/northern MO to west TX...
Overall forcing will be weaker farther south along the dryline, but
subtle mid-level height falls across a mostly uncapped warm sector
should result in isolated to scattered supercell development during
the late afternoon to evening. This appears most likely across
western north TX into southwest OK where greater boundary-layer
heating and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet are
anticipated.

..Grams.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280610
SWODY2
SPC AC 280609

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great
Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is
apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern
Midwest to Lower Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A consolidated shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great
Lakes and southeast Canada on Tuesday. A southern-stream trough over
the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface
cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the
Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the
central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker
surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos.

...Eastern Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
Ahead of the cold front, the warm sector across the Ohio Valley into
the Lower Great Lakes region should destabilize through the
morning/early afternoon. Initially, storms will develop across
eastern Ohio into the Lower Great Lakes near the aforementioned
surface low/cold front interface. Large hail will be the initial
threat with supercell modes before a tendency to cluster and grow
upscale. This will bring an increase in the potential for scattered
to widespread damaging wind as the front shifts eastward with bowing
line segments/clusters through time.

...TX/OK...
A secondary weaker surface low will develop across western Texas
near the vicinity of the dryline and a stationary front across
portions of central Oklahoma into southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon.
This region will be the focus of supercell development by the
afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail, severe wind,
and a tornado. An Enhanced Risk for hail may be needed in further
outlook updates, given the steep lapse rates and supercellular
modes, but uncertainty on coverage warrants re-evaluation as
mesoscale details become more clear.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281726
SWODY2
SPC AC 281725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO
WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors
of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower
Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the
Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough
over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary
surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress
towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push
across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker
surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos.

...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes...
Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of
remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH
Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability
relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning
convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal
heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale
outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall
severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the
cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z
ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread
wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk
area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more
conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong
deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the
Lower Great Lakes.

...West TX to the Ozarks...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period
along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via
convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and
organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak
severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating
across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable
corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple
tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into
southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should
consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with
small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated
to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides.
Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX
South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet
strengthens south of the convectively modulated front.

..Grams.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large
hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with
thunderstorm activity.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern
Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity
possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the
period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across
western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This
activity will continue to track eastward through the period and
intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves
north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas.

A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern
Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus
of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period
Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as
daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization
downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across
central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level
forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection
expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north
Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the
mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears
that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by
steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This
will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of
very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk
will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens
and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable
corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across
southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote
potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into
western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for
line embedded circulations.

Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail.
At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from
multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region.

...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois
and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible
Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with
the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would
be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient
shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially
a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities
low.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291715
SWODY2
SPC AC 291715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large
hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with
thunderstorm activity.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern
Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity
possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the
period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across
western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This
activity will continue to track eastward through the period and
intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves
north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas.

A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern
Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus
of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period
Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as
daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization
downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across
central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level
forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection
expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north
Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the
mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears
that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by
steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This
will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of
very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk
will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens
and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable
corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across
southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote
potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into
western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for
line embedded circulations.

Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail.
At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from
multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region.

...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois
and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible
Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with
the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would
be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient
shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially
a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities
low.

..15_ows.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291752
SWODY2
SPC AC 291715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large
hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with
thunderstorm activity.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern
Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity
possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the
period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across
western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This
activity will continue to track eastward through the period and
intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves
north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas.

A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern
Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus
of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period
Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as
daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization
downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across
central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level
forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection
expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north
Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the
mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears
that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by
steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This
will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of
very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk
will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens
and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable
corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across
southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote
potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into
western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for
line embedded circulations.

Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail.
At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from
multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region.

...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois
and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible
Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with
the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would
be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient
shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially
a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities
low.

..15_ows.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the
Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to
severe winds and hail.

...Synopsis...
A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the
lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday,
with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the
Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged
to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it
shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before
moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing
cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the
Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period.

...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the
edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late
morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will
be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great
Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower
Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are
expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates,
sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging
winds will be possible.

Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few
supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the
dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is
weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should
be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline
will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in
this regime would be capable of large to very large hail.

...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma...
Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would
likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and
damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into
an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the
period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of
the D2 period.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301727
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
parts of the southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys,
and northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms
will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail.

...Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to Texas...
A lead mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to sweep across the
Midwest/Ohio Valley area Thursday, ahead of a second/stronger trough
digging southeastward across the north-central states. This lead
trough will support surface cyclogenesis, as a low shifts from the
Illinois vicinity across northern Indiana and into Lower Michigan by
evening. As this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to
advance eastward across the Ohio Valley area, while trailing
westward across central Texas to the Rio Grande Valley.

Ahead of this front, a seasonably moist low-level airmass will heat/destabilize, supporting scattered storm development within an
elongated zone near and ahead of the boundary.

Greater instability will evolve across Texas and the Arklatex
region, but weaker forcing and a weakly capped boundary layer should
limit storm coverage. A few storms may also develop over the higher
terrain of Mexico, and move across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Any
storm developing across this region will prove capable of producing
large hail, and locally strong gusts.

Farther northeastward, from the Mid Mississippi Valley area to the
Lower Great Lakes, lesser instability but stronger flow aloft
suggests potential for locally damaging winds with stronger storms,
and possibly marginal hail in a few locales. The risk across this
area should diminish through the evening.

...Southern Oklahoma into North Texas...
Evening/overnight storm development appears likely across the
western North Texas/southwestern Oklahoma vicinity Thursday night,
in a zone of warm advection near/north of the remnant surface front.
Steep lapse rates and moderate westerlies aloft will combine to
support potential for a few supercells, most likely elevated atop a shallow/stable boundary layer. Very large hail would be the primary
risk, but particularly if storms can congeal into a quasi-linear
MCS, locally damaging wind gusts could also be possible.

..Goss.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRANS
PECOS TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the
Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys
and into Texas on Friday. The greatest threat for large hail will be
from the Trans Pecos to East Texas.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will move from Ontario into northern Quebec on Friday
with a trailing front stalling from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks to
West Texas. This front will start to accelerate southeast during the
late afternoon/evening as a positively tilted mid-level trough
amplifies and moves south across the Plains. Scattered strong to
severe storms are forecast along this frontal zone Friday
afternoon/evening.

...Trans Pecos to East Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast south of a frontal zone across
central Texas Friday afternoon. As the mid-level trough advances
southward through the Plains, mid-level temperatures will cool and
ascent will overspread this frontal zone. Therefore, as the airmass
becomes uncapped, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
front. 35 to 40 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for
supercells with a primary hazard of large hail.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front
from Louisiana to western New York on Friday afternoon. The best
flow will be across Kentucky and Ohio and into Pennsylvania and New
York, but heating/destabilization becomes more questionable that far
north. The best overlap of mid-level flow and richer low-level
moisture will be across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, cloud
cover associated with an MCS which is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period across Texas and Arkansas will limit heating
and thus destabilization. Better instability will be likely where
heating can occur to the south of the more extensive cloud cover,
but shear/forcing becomes weaker farther south and east. Therefore,
within the broad marginal risk from western New York to Louisiana
there will likely be one or more corridors with a greater threat for
severe storms, but those areas will be mesoscale in nature and
highly dependent on Day 1 convection. Therefore, no higher
probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011729
SWODY2
SPC AC 011727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central
Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into
early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats.

...Synopsis...
Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now
amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward
across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will
eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint
Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with
a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front
into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern
will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from
D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north
TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR.

...Central TX to middle TN...
Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will
reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX
into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the
remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the
convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN
Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line
segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail.


Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in
TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern
extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger
flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters
capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the
more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in
the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more
larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX
coast and south central TX into Friday night.

...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY...
The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence
across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector
is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE
generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow
(up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon
could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters.
Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected
to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher
terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor
sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage.

..Thompson.. 05/01/2025

$$

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