ACUS03 KWNS 310729
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions
of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon. The
primary hazard will be severe gusts, but a tornado or two will also
be possible.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it accelerates
northeastward towards the upper MS Valley in tandem with an upper
trough through the day Thursday. Residual thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing across the Ozarks and will track northeast within a
strengthening wind field. Re-intensification appears likely by
mid-afternoon from lower MI southwestward into IL and IN. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along a trailing cold front
across the mid-MS Valley through the afternoon. Elsewhere, more
loosely organized convection is expected across the lower MS Valley
and along the Appalachians.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A combination of northward moisture advection and diurnal heating
will likely support a re-intensification of residual convection
emanating out of MO by mid-afternoon. Winds through the 925-850 mb
layer are forecast to increase to 45-55 knots through the day, which
will support organized convective lines with an attendant threat for damaging/severe gusts. Additionally, forecast soundings generally
depict strong veering above 1 km AGL, which coupled with hodograph
elongation through the lowest 1-3 km, will support effective SRH
values on the order of 250-350 m2/s2 and a tornado threat with the
more intense/robust lines. That said, the degree of destabilization
ahead of this activity remains uncertain with guidance generally
depicting MLCAPE values on the order of 500 J/kg. While somewhat
meager, the strong flow fields will likely compensate and support a
severe wind threat. 15% probabilities were introduced from eastern
IL northeastward into MI where confidence in the overlap of strong
low-level flow and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg is highest.

Further to the west, additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated along the primary synoptic cold front across the
mid/upper MS Valley. As with the activity further east, this
convection will develop within a modestly buoyant, but strongly
sheared environment that should favor a damaging wind threat.
Confidence in destabilization is somewhat more limited owing to
uncertainty on how quickly early-morning showers/thunderstorms will
exit the region and allow for adequate diurnal destabilization.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311931
SWODY3
SPC AC 311929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

...Midwest and Great Lakes region...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough and related belt of 50-60-kt
midlevel southwesterly flow will move from the central Plains
northeastward across the Midwest during the afternoon and evening on
Thursday. At the same time, an accompanying 50+ kt low-level jet
will overspread the Midwest ahead of a deepening surface low
tracking northeastward across IA into WI. Showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing ahead of the surface low and along/south of an eastward-extending warm front at the start of the period.

In the wake of the early-day convection, current indications are
that lower/middle 60s dewpoints will spread northward beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates -- yielding sufficient boundary-layer recovery
ahead of afternoon and evening thunderstorms near the surface low
and northward-moving warm front. Despite some uncertainty with the
early-day convection, around 50 kt of effective shear and enlarged clockwise-turning hodographs will favor supercells and organized
clusters -- posing a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. As the details become more clear regarding early-day
convection and related boundary-layer recovery, higher severe
probabilities may eventually be needed.

...Middle MS and Lower OH Valleys...
The latest guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible farther south within a zone of
broadly confluent and moist low-level flow. While relatively weaker
forcing for ascent limits confidence in severe potential with
southward extent, at least subtle midlevel heights falls amid
weak/moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective
shear could support a few strong to severe storms capable of wind
damage and isolated hail during the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 03/31/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010730
SWODY3
SPC AC 010729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the
evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very
large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good
alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS
through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave,
robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a
residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains
eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on
Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and
attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from
the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front
through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all
convective hazards.

...Iowa/northern Missouri...
The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across
northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon.
Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front
should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong
synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough
will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper
jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly
orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor
initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes
given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2.
With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with
an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range
CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly
capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low).
Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter
space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe
thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk
probabilities.

...Kansas into Oklahoma...
Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS
into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to
the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward
propagation of the convective line, though more substantial
progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal
jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears
likely with this activity.

...Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas...
A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into
western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward
extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at
least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While
low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings
depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells
capable of producing large to very large hail.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011137
SWODY3
SPC AC 011136

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the
evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very
large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good
alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS
through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave,
robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a
residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains
eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on
Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and
attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from
the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front
through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all
convective hazards.

...Iowa/northern Missouri...
The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across
northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon.
Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front
should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong
synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough
will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper
jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly
orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor
initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes
given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2.
With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with
an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range
CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly
capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low).
Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter
space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe
thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk
probabilities.

...Kansas into Oklahoma...
Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS
into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to
the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward
propagation of the convective line, though more substantial
progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal
jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears
likely with this activity.

...Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas...
A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into
western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward
extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at
least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While
low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings
depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells
capable of producing large to very large hail.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011927
SWODY3
SPC AC 011926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.

...Discussion...
While an initial surface cyclone weakens northeast of the Great
Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley during the day Friday,
a trailing cold front is forecast to advance into the Northeast
while stalling near/just south of the Great Lakes region into the
middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, ahead of a progressive
large-scale mid/upper trough advancing east of the Rockies. It
appears that the intersection of this front and a Pacific front
advancing east of the southern Rockies may become the focus for a
modest surface cyclone, which guidance generally suggests will
weaken while migrating east-northeast of the central Great Plains
and occluding late Friday through Friday night.

It appears that low-level moisture return ahead of the Pacific cold
front and dryline will contribute to a corridor of moderate
boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg across parts of
northwest Texas through eastern Kansas and western Missouri by
Friday afternoon, with similar destabilization possible along the
stalled frontal zone near the Missouri/Iowa border, perhaps into
parts of the lower Ohio Valley.

Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the large-scale
trough, their appears a considerable signal in latest model output
that the evolution of a fairly extensive east-southeastward
advancing squall line is possible ahead of the Pacific cold front
late Friday afternoon and evening. After an initial period with
potential for severe hail, widespread strong to severe wind gusts
and a few embedded tornadoes associated with developing
meso-vortices will become the primary threats as convection grows
upscale and forward propagates.

It is possible that the surface low/frontal intersection near the
Missouri/Iowa border vicinity could become a potential focus for
higher severe probabilities. However, given initially cool/stable
air to the north of this front, and the weakening nature of the
surface cyclone, this remains unclear. Higher severe weather
probabilities may need to be focused ahead of the Pacific front
across parts of western into central Missouri, central into eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas in later outlook updates for this
period.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020732
SWODY3
SPC AC 020730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio River
Valley and across the Texas Gulf Coast into the southern Mississippi
River Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the
Pacific Northwest) is forecast to progress from the central Plains
into the Great Lakes region late Friday through early Sunday. As
this occurs, an attendant surface low will migrate northeast,
gradually weakening through Saturday evening. A trailing cold front
will push from the Midwest and southern Plains east/southeastward
into the upper OH Valley and northwestern Gulf. Moisture advection
ahead of the front, coupled with diurnal heating, should support
scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early
evening hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible
across the upper OH Valley and across the TX Gulf Coast into the
lower MS Valley where deep-layer shear may support organized
convection.

...Upper OH Valley...
Lingering showers and convection will likely be ongoing across the
Midwest/OH Valley by 12 UTC Saturday along the advancing cold front.
This initial activity will likely remain sub-severe through the
morning hours. Some degree of re-intensification and/or pre-frontal
development is expected through early/mid-afternoon as diurnal
heating and moisture advection support increasing buoyancy and
diminish inhibition. 30-40 knot flow through the 1-6 km layer will
likely support loosely organized convection capable of strong to
severe wind gusts, and perhaps sporadic hail. Given the weakening of
the synoptic low and broad-scale ascent, overall coverage of intense
convection may be limited. However, higher risk probabilities may be
warranted if guidance trends towards a greater coverage of robust
convective clusters and/or line segments.

...Lower MS River Valley into the TX Gulf Coast...
Ongoing convection is likely across east TX early Saturday ahead of
the southeastward moving cold front. Some degree of
re-intensification of this activity is anticipated as it migrates
east towards the MS River where richer low-level moisture will
support higher buoyancy (MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg).
Displacement from the primary upper wave to the north will yield
marginal deep-layer wind shear values (generally around 25 knots),
but this should be sufficient for a few organized storms along the
front through the late afternoon hours with an attendant sporadic
hail/wind risk. Based on latest CAM guidance, the greatest severe
risk will likely emerge across the MS Valley into northern LA,
though some solutions hint that robust convection may develop as far
southwest as the TX Gulf Coast.

..Moore.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021927
SWODY3
SPC AC 021925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THE
MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in
advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from
southeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Upper OH Valley and vicinity...
A surface cold front will move eastward from the MS Valley into the
OH Valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into ON/QC and in
advance of an associated midlevel trough. The typical uncertainties
surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area,
but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in
cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front
Saturday afternoon/evening. Likewise, an increase in low-midlevel
flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential
for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the
front. The main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a
gradual weakening of convection expected overnight.

...Southeast TX to the Mid-South...
Widespread convection is expected along a cold front late Friday
into early Saturday, and this front will continue southeastward
through the day. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and
surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning
convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg) in the warm sector. Wind profiles will be a little more
favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the MRGL
area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel
westerly flow. The forecast pattern best supports isolated wind
damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and
midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and
likely influences of morning convection suggest additional
refinements are likely in later updates.

..Thompson.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030714
SWODY3
SPC AC 030713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from
eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern
Maryland.

...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern
Maryland...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will
develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms
forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal
severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina,
far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer
shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe
gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon
when low-level lapse rates will be steepest.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031931
SWODY3
SPC AC 031930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Mid Atlantic
Coast vicinity Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for
damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that a broad, deep occluded surface
cyclone may deepen at least a bit further while migrating
east-northeastward across Quebec during this period. Renewed
cyclogenesis appears possible across the Canadian Maritimes by
Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front advancing offshore of the
northern through middle Atlantic coast by early Monday, while
slowing/stalling across parts of northern Florida.

Pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, where deep-layer mean
flow and shear appears sufficient to support convective
organization, is forecast to remain weak, due to generally weak
tropospheric lapse rates. It appears that this may become focused
along lee surface troughing across and east of the Carolina
Piedmont, perhaps as far north as a developing low/frontal wave
across south central Virginia into the southern Delmarva Peninsula
by late Sunday afternoon.

Forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave impulse progressing
through the base of approaching larger-scale mid-level troughing, is
likely to aid convective development, with sheared, 30-50 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer contributing
convective organization with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts. A narrow broken squall line may evolve, with perhaps
embedded supercell structures which could also pose the risk for a
tornado or two while spreading toward coastal areas by early Sunday
evening.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040724
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in
south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move across the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances
southward into northern Florida. To the south of the front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form within a moist airmass
over the southern and central Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be near or below 20
knots, suggesting the storms will remain below severe limits.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to form in the Desert
Southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S.
Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041904
SWODY3
SPC AC 041902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. At
the surface, a cold front draped across northern FL will sag
southward. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the front will
support weak destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon across the FL
Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated weak
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest as an
upper shortwave trough traverses the region.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050718
SWODY3
SPC AC 050716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051241
SWODY3
SPC AC 051239

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TSTM LINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051834
SWODY3
SPC AC 051833

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...

Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on
Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and
Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the
southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern
Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the
eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across
central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much
of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though
a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across
the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are
not expected.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060729
SWODY3
SPC AC 060728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday night.

...Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Wednesday, as low-level moisture advection takes place in
the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front from
will advance southward into the central Plains. By Wednesday
evening, the front is forecast to stall over northern Kansas, with
scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the northern
boundary. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front late
Wednesday evening have a low-level temperature inversion with MUCAPE
near 1200 J/kg. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast around 8 C/km
with effective shear near 40 knots. This environment should support
a threat for isolated large hail with elevated supercells. The
threat may continue into the overnight period, as a low-level jet
strengthens.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061909
SWODY3
SPC AC 061908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday evening.

...Central Plains...

A compact upper trough/low will move from the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will shift
from southern Manitoba to near James Bay in Ontario. A trailing cold
front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central
Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to
persistent surface high pressure across the East, cutting off
stronger Gulf moisture return. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft
(around -15 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and
weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front
across the central Plains.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the
evening. Vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but
effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast
soundings. Furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the
top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in
lengthened/straight hodographs. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is
also forecast. This environment marginally supports a few strong to
severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps
marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained.

..Leitman.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070727
SWODY3
SPC AC 070726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail
may also develop in the southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the
central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to
remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into
northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during
the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming
likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have
MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to
around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of
this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a
marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains
in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to
develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may
be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts
suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the
east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any
cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071852
SWODY3
SPC AC 071852

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing
across the northern U.S. will pivot eastward across the northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging over the West will meander eastward toward the
Rockies. At the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east
across northern KS and northern MO while a surface dryline extends south/southwest across western KS into western TX. Neutral height
tendencies across the southern Plains will preclude stronger surface cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the
High Plains.

...Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley...

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector,
with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support MUCAPE to
around 1000-1500 J/kg near the west to east surface front.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of
the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with
effective shear greater than 40 kt. Large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the
north of the area. However, convergence along the boundary and
continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet
increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm
development. Isolated large hail will be possible with this activity
from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern High Plains...

A more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist
further south along the dryline across western TX toward southwest
KS. Strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level
convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by
evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to around
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally less
than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated large hail will be
possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained. Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud
layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also
may be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080714
SWODY3
SPC AC 080713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday,
as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far
southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the
front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few
small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon
into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts
have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a
marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081926
SWODY3
SPC AC 081925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND TOWARD THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.

...Discussion...
On Friday, an upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with temporary upper ridging over the Plains in advance
of a large upper trough moving across the West. At the surface, high
pressure will exist over the northern Plains to upper MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from the KS/OK border into central MO, and
extending northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. This front
will become nearly stationary during the day over the Plains, and
will return north overnight as warm front across KS/MO.

Beneath the upper ridge, potential will exist for scattered
thunderstorms along the frontal zone at various times of the day.
Early day storms will be possible from eastern KS into MO and
possibly northern OK, as the Thursday night activity persists into
Friday morning with the aid of a southwesterly low-level jet and
outflows. This activity could pose strong gust potential before
weakening midday.

Additional storms will be possible along the east-west front as
heating occurs to the south of it (and any outflows). Though the
large-scale pattern will not favor significant coverage of severe
storms, isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the air mass
becomes uncapped. Slow-moving severe storms producing large hail
appear most likely across the northern TX to OK Panhandles into
southern KS and northwest OK, in closer proximity to the steeper
lapse rates aloft. Overall, shear will be marginal, but a stationary
storm may briefly show supercell characteristics given the veering
winds with height, producing large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090715
SWODY3
SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New
Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts
of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over much of southern and central
Plains, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. A
surface trough over far eastern New Mexico will be a focus for
convective development as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much
of the southern High Plains. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200
to 1500 J/kg range over west Texas, where 0-3 km lapse rates should
reach 7.5 and 8 C/km in the late afternoon. This will be favorable
for severe wind gusts. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
between 30 and 40 knots over much of the southern High Plains
suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. Severe
threat coverage may peak in the early to mid evening, especially if
an MCS can organize over parts of west-central Texas.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon, as southwesterly mid-level
flow becomes established over much of the north-central U.S. At the
surface, a trough will deepen during the day across the central High
Plains, with moisture advection continuing over the central Plains
and Missouri Valley. Weak instability is expected to develop over
much of this airmass by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
remain limited, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in areas
where low-level convergence and surface heating become maximized.
Model forecasts suggest that enough deep-layer shear will be in
place for a marginal severe threat, with hail and isolated severe
gusts possible.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091934
SWODY3
SPC AC 091933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, some producing hail and strong gusts, will
be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out affecting parts
of central California.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will swing southeastward into central/northern CA late
on Saturday, providing lift and widespread precipitation. To the
east, an upper ridge will be located over the MS Valley during the
day, and this will shift east toward the Appalachians by 12Z Sunday.
In between these features, a broad zone of modest southwest flow
aloft will encompass the Rockies and Plains states.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
eastern states, with gusty south winds helping to bring 50s to 60s F
dewpoints across TX and OK. A lee trough over the High Plains will
be a focus for afternoon storm development, where shear may support
areas of severe storms. Elsewhere, low pressure will also affect
parts of central CA, moving ashore late in the day. This may also
focus a few strong storms.

...Southern Plains...
Low pressure will deepen over the northern and central High Plains,
with gusty south winds bringing 50s F dewpoints as far north as NE
by 00Z. Southeasterly surface winds will also bring moisture
westward across west TX and into eastern NM. Here, strong heating
and a lack of cap will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Shear will not be strong, with only 25-35 kt
southwest winds at 500 mb. Some storms may produce hail, and several
storms or clusters may propagate eastward through the night with
areas of strong to severe gusts possible.

A separate area from northeast CO into KS and western NE may support
a few severe cells producing hail as well, as this area will
experience stronger heating near the deepening surface trough, and
with locally backed surface winds.

...Central CA...
Strong cooling aloft will occur during the afternoon and evening as
the upper low moves toward the area. Weak instability will develop
as lapse rates aloft steepen, though just a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE
is currently forecast. Isolated cells may occur in the central
valley late in the afternoon, and, along a cold front as it
approaches the central coast. Gusty winds and perhaps small hail
will be possible. Severe potential is more uncertain three days out,
but the setup will continue to be monitored in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100712
SWODY3
SPC AC 100711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Central/Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will slowly pivot east across the western U.S. on
Sunday. Low-amplitude, broad southwesterly flow will persist
downstream of the western trough across much of the rest of the U.S.
A weak upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Upper
Midwest through midday before weakening over the Great Lakes during
the afternoon. At the surface, weak troughing will extend from MN
into NE and southward across western KS/OK/TX. Low 60s F dewpoints
will be in place east of the surface trough from TX into IA/IL/WI.

Quite a bit of uncertainty exists for the Day 3 period and forecast
confidence is fairly low. Precipitation will likely be ongoing
across portions of OK/TX, and possibly northward into KS and the
Upper Midwest as a continuation of Day 2 overnight storms and
persistent warm advection. A weak shortwave impulse over the
southern Plains Sunday morning will quickly shift northeast through
midday. It is unclear how this may impact destabilization later in
the day. In the wake of the morning shortwave, large-scale ascent
will remain nebulous. Furthermore, the upper shortwave trough moving
across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest may be ill-timed
with peak heating, and may lead to subsidence across the region
during the afternoon in the wake of this feature.

Nevertheless, some severe risk, albeit conditional, will be possible
across portions of the central/southern Plains, likely focused along
the surface trough/dryline from central KS into western OK and
portions of western/north TX. Supercell vertical wind profiles are
evident in forecast soundings, with weak capping noted just above
850 mb. Steep lapse rates above this layer will be supported by cool temperatures aloft, and MLCAPE values could climb to near 2000 J/kg.
Storm coverage is uncertain, but if storms can develop and become
sustained, all severe hazards will be possible.

A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper
Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on
timing of the aforementioned upper shortwave trough. Given
uncertainty, will introduce low severe probabilities (level 1 of 5)
and trends will be monitored.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101932
SWODY3
SPC AC 101931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a ridge will become established across the eastern CONUS
with a trough advancing slowly inland across the West. A weak
mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes during the period. Persistent mid-level flow across the
Rockies will continue lee troughing and northward moisture transport
across the Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A large area of precipitation is expected to be ongoing Sunday
morning from central Oklahoma to central Texas. This is expected to
move slowly northeast through the day. Subsidence in the wake of the
morning shortwave trough associated with this activity should allow
for recovery ahead of the dryline from West Texas to central Kansas.
In addition, southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow aloft and a well-established EML should assist in erosion of cloud cover across
this region by late morning. Therefore, by late Sunday afternoon,
moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the
dryline.

Forcing across the warm sector remains weak and casts considerable conditionality to the forecast. Guidance shows mostly neutral
heights across the dryline during the day. In addition, the dryline
remains relatively diffuse which would not support the strong
convergent circulations necessary for convective initiation.
However, it is worth noting that much of the guidance has a dryline
orientation oriented somewhat northeast to southwest. Therefore, any
convection which develops within this zone may have a long enough
residence time to mature before moving off of the dryline. Given the expectation for minimal inhibition during the afternoon, this may
favor storm development along particular mesoscale corridors along
the dryline Sunday afternoon/early evening in an otherwise weakly
forced environment. Given moderate to potentially strong instability
and moderate shear, large hail (including the potential for 2+ inch
hail) will likely be the primary hazard with any supercells that
develop.

...Central/South Texas...
12Z guidance is fairly consistent with the depiction of a mid-level
shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico during the day
Sunday. Given the strong instability across northern Mexico and
south Texas, it would seem likely for storms to develop along the
higher terrain of northern Mexico during the afternoon/evening ahead
of this trough. Strong instability downstream could maintain these
storms through the evening with some potential for upscale growth
(such as shown by the RRFS). However, significant inhibition on
forecast soundings and minimal QPF signal from the global guidance,
combined with minimal convection over the higher terrain in Mexico
from the other CAM guidance out through 00Z casts some doubt on this
scenario.

An additional scenario is possible across central Texas. At the
southern end of the morning convection, continued storm development
is possible within a supercell environment. This scenario is less
certain given rising heights aloft and will likely be dictated by
the character of the cold pool from Saturday night/Sunday morning
storms. However, this is a scenario depicted by some guidance (most
notably the ECMWF) which could have a locally higher severe weather
threat across this region on Sunday afternoon.

...Upper Midwest...
A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper
Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on
timing of the mid-level shortwave trough. Uncertainties regarding
storm coverage remain, but will maintain the Marginal Risk and
trends will be monitored.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110726
SWODY3
SPC AC 110725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough from the northern Rockies to southern CA will pivot
east on Monday, overspreading the Four Corners vicinity by early
Tuesday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east
across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a
low over the Mid-MO Valley will shift east along a frontal wave
across MN/WI. Persistent southwesterly deep-layer flow over the
Rockies into the Plains will maintain surface lee troughing across
the Plains. Meanwhile, south/southwesterly low-level flow will
maintain 60s F dewpoints from the southern Plains toward Lake
Michigan.

...Upper Midwest...

Some spread among various medium-range guidance in the
placement/track of the surface low leads to some uncertainty
regarding the northward extent of severe potential on Monday.
Nevertheless, a moist airmass will reside ahead of the low in the
vicinity of a surface warm front. Storm coverage is uncertain,
partly due to possibly capping. However, persistent moderate
southwesterly flow atop the front as the low begins to shift east
should provide focus for thunderstorm development during the
afternoon and evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated
hodographs suggest large hail will be possible both within the warm
sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the
boundary. Some guidance suggests storms could consolidate into a bow
or linear segment, which would increase damaging wind potential.
However, this scenario is uncertain. Some severe risk will persist
eastward along the warm front into MI overnight. These elevated
storms will mainly pose a hail risk.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Capping is likely to suppress convection along a dryline extending
across eastern KS into western OK/TX. The exception may be across
portions of western TX into southwest OK where modest height falls
could occur toward evening as the western upper trough beings to
slowly shift east toward the southern Rockies. Mid 60s F dewpoints
and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong
destabilization. Strong heating along and west of the dryline will
support mixing and an increasing southerly low-level jet by 00z
could be sufficient for isolated storm development. Supercell wind
profiles will support mainly a risk of large hail, though locally
damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible if storms
develop.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111930
SWODY3
SPC AC 111929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
The pattern on D3/Monday will be characterized by continued
mid-level troughing across the western US, shifting east into the
Great Basin. Strong west to southwesterly flow will continue across
the Rockies into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low
will shift across SD/NE into the Upper Midwest, with attendant
northward lifting warm front and eventual southward moving cold
front. These features will be the focus of thunderstorm activity
late Monday afternoon across MN/IA/WI will additional development
likely into upper MI through the late evening.

Across the southern/central Plains, a surface dryline will extend
from central KS into western OK/southwest TX. Strong daytime heating
will occur along and ahead of the dryline with an increase in the
low-level jet by the late afternoon/evening and potential for
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.

...Upper Midwest...
Across the Upper Midwest, southerly flow will usher low to mid 60s
dew points northwards into portions of IA/WI/MN as a surface low
shifts eastward. The exact northern extent of this moisture remains
uncertain, however it does appear that thunderstorms will develop
near the low and along or north of the effective warm front across
some portion of IA/MN border, perhaps as far west as southeastern
SD/northern NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest large to very large hail (some 2-2.5+ inch in diameter) will
be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms
on the cool side of the boundary. Some consideration was given to
introduction a 30% area, primarily concerning the hail risk, across
the IA/MN border. There still remains uncertainty in guidance of the
coverage of storms in the open warm sector. Through time, storms may consolidate with a shift to damaging wind potential. For now, opted
to expand the Marginal and Slight Risks further west into the
Dakotas but maintain 15% probabilities.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A more conditional threat for thunderstorms will be possible across
the dryline in the central/southern Plains. Through the day, the
environment looks to remain largely capped. Beneath this, strong
daytime heating will yield moderate to strong CAPE within a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Into the late afternoon/evening,
the low-level jet will increase and this may support development of
isolated thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the dryline.
Should this occur, the environment will favor supercells capable of
large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120719
SWODY3
SPC AC 120718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist from the southern Plains
to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. An upper trough over the western U.S.
will slowly pivot eastward, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Sunday morning. Surface low pressure will remain centered
over the central Plains, with troughing extending southwestward into
west TX. A cold front will slowly sag southward across portions of
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. The surface trough/dryline
and the boundary across the Great Lakes will become a focus for
thunderstorm activity through the forecast period.

...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes vicinity...

Convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Tuesday
morning. This activity should spread east, and persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery during the afternoon.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread mid 60s F dewpoints, and
moderate to strong destabilization is forecast. Stronger height
falls are not expected across the region, as the main upper trough
will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop
a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to
scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. Supercell
wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, suggesting an
all-hazards risk. Given uncertainty related to potential airmass
contamination from early day convection and cloud cover, and
potential capping concerns, will maintain Slight risk (level 2 of
5). However, a rather volatile thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will exist across portions of the region, and higher
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks depending on
forecast trends and mesoscale details.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally begins to
eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence along a
surface dryline should support at least isolated storm development
by around 00z. Steep midlevel lapse rates and mid/upper 60s F
dewpoints will support strong destabilization amid supercell wind
profiles. Large to very large hail will be possible in addition to
strong wind gusts and a tornado or two.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121932
SWODY3
SPC AC 121930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
The western US trough will eject across the Rockies on Tuesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the Plains into the Great
Lakes Region. A surface low will deepen across western KS/NE with a
warm front lifting across the Lower Missouri Valley into the Great
Lakes and sharpening dryline across the southern/central Plains. A
cold front will sag southward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
vicinity. The surface trough/dryline and the boundary across the
Great Lakes will become a focus for thunderstorm activity through
the forecast period.

...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes...
Convective coverage will overlap the start of the period near 12z on
Tuesday across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Trends
are for relatively quick clearing across portions of central Iowa
into Illinois. As the warm front lifts northward, strong daytime
heating is expected amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. It is
likely the air mass will recover with potential for moderate to
strong instability by the afternoon. Stronger height falls are not
expected across the region, as the main upper trough
will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop
a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to
scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. The primary
risk will be for large to very large hail ( some 2.5"+ in diameter)
and damaging wind.

By late afternoon/evening, 700 mb flow will strengthen (around 50-60
kts) with a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rate nosing into
central Iowa/northern Illinois from the southwest. The 850 mb
low-level jet also increases, with large clockwise curved hodographs
developing with the resulting increase in low-level shear. If
supercells can develop and maintain residency along or south of the
warm front, a corridor of greater tornado risk (a couple of which
may be strong tornadoes) may present itself.

Consideration was given to a 30 percent area (primarily hail
driven). With some uncertainty remaining in morning convection and
coverage of storms in the afternoon/evening, the 15% was maintained
with this outlook until more information can be gleaned from hi-res
guidance.

...Southern Plains...
Ahead of the dryline across the Southern Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected. Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the
region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally
begins to eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence
along a surface dryline should support storm development by around
00z. If little convective development occurs on D2/Monday, a
relatively undisturbed moist/very unstable air mass will be in
place. It is likely that rather robust thunderstorm development will
occur along the dryline, with the primary mode being supercelluar.
Large to very large hail (2 to locally 2.5+ inches in diameter),
damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Given
that deep layer shear profiles have more of a parallel component to
the dryline, storm interactions may keep the period of more discrete
supercell thunderstorms short, with a shift to clusters of mix-mode
supercell and multi-cell storms.

..Thornton.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130717
SWODY3
SPC AC 130716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...

An upper trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley vicinity
on Wednesday. As associated corridor of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread a moist/unstable airmass ahead of a
surface dryline. The southern Plains portion of the dryline will not
move too much on Wednesday. However, the northern extent of this
boundary will intersect a weak surface low moving from the Lower MO
Valley toward Lake Michigan. This portion of the boundary will
advance eastward toward the MS River during the evening/overnight
hours.

Areas of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of
the region Wednesday morning. As a result, there is uncertainty
regarding how the boundary layer may recover/destabilize during the
afternoon. Nevertheless, at least pockets of moderate
destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected within a
corridor along and east of the surface boundary. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be sufficient for organized
convection, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the primary
hazards.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131922
SWODY3
SPC AC 131921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the
Upper Midwest on Wednesday, with continued enhanced west to
southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the Great Lakes
Region. The surface dryline will remain in a similar location from
Tuesday, extending across western Oklahoma into southwestern and
western Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across IA into WI,
with a cold front shifting south and east through the period.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest along the aforementioned boundaries
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the
start of the period at 12z Wednesday across much of the Slight Risk
region. A secondary round of thunderstorm development is likely to
occur near and ahead of the dryline extending from west Texas into
western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. It remains somewhat uncertain
how morning convection will evolve and what the resulting effect on
the thermodynamic environment will be. Most guidance suggests that
in the area ahead of the dryline across central OK to the Red River
in northern Texas will develop at least moderate instability
(1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Deep layer shear profiles will remain
strong favoring supercells as the primary mode. The main threat will
be for large to very large hail and damaging wind, given linearly
elongated hodographs and weaker low-level shear.

Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop further north across
the central Plains into the Great Lakes region along the
dryline/cold front intersection. A messy mode with mix of supercells
and multi-cell clusters is likely given the eventual southward
moving cold front. Similarly, the main risks will be for damaging
wind and large hail across these regions.

...Northeast...
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and
south of a diffuse frontal boundary across the Great Lakes into
southern NY/northern PA. Modestly unstable profiles, steepening
lapse rates, and strong deep layer shear will allow for some
isolated severe storm risk. Primary risk would be for damaging wind
and small hail, though, a tornado could be possible near the
boundary.

..Thornton.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140723
SWODY3
SPC AC 140722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will move from the MS Valley to the
Appalachians on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow
will overspread the MO Bootheel toward Lake Erie ahead of this
feature. At the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. Some ongoing
convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger
destabilization, but at least weak MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast. While low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt
west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. A mix of
clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts
where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place
across the southern Plains on Thursday ahead of a dryline. A weak
shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the
day, departing by early afternoon. Height rises/shortwave ridging is
then forecast to build across the area. At this time, thunderstorm
development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of
large-scale ascent should be maintained. However, trends will be
monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment. Otherwise, isolated elevated convection is
possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north
TX into southern OK.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141916
SWODY3
SPC AC 141915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into
parts of New York.

...Synopsis...
A progressive pattern will persist on Thursday, with a leading
shortwave trough moving quickly across OH valley into the Northeast.
This wave will breakdown the ridge along the East Coast, and provide
a focus for scattered strong storms. Low-level warm advection out of
the west/southwest will help destabilize the region with storms most
likely during the afternoon from the Lower Great Lake across much of
upstate NY and northern PA. Instability will be sufficient to
support a few fast-moving cells capable of marginal hail and locally
damaging gusts.

To the southeast, storm coverage is less certain, particularly from
AR/MO into the lower OH Valley. Here, cool temperatures aloft will
linger, aiding instability, though somewhat behind the upper trough
affecting the northeastern states. Showers and storms are most
likely in the morning in association with the main wave, but
conditional severe probabilities will be higher during the afternoon
when instability redevelops. Any storms that form will be capable of
producing hail, from MO into AR, western TN/KY, IL and IN.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150729
SWODY3
SPC AC 150728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...AND FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
on Friday and Friday night. All severe hazards will be possible.

...Southern Plains to MS Valley...

A robust upper trough will eject eastward from the northern High
Plains and central Rockies to the Upper Midwest and central Plains
on Friday. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread portions of the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper
MS Valley and Great Lakes. Flow at 850-700 mb around 40-60 kt will
be common. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northern MN
to a low over eastern NE Friday morning. Meanwhile, a dryline will
extend southwest from the NE low into central KS, northwest OK and
western TX. A warm front initially arcing across central IA into
south-central IL will lift northward through the period ahead of the eastward-advancing surface low tracking across northern IA/southern
MN into WI. A warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints
will be in place across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by
midday, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints extending north
into portions of eastern MN and WI. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8
C/km) will overspread this moist boundary layer, resulting in
moderate to strong destabilization.

As strong ascent overspreads the aforementioned surface boundaries
by mid afternoon, widespread thunderstorm development is expected.
While initial supercells are possible given a favorable
thermodynamic environment and supercell vertical wind profiles,
linear forcing along the front combined with strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow parallel to the initiating boundary may result in
rapid upscale development into a QLCS, particularly from northeast
KS/northwest MO into IA. A well-organized line of convection will
pose a damaging wind risk along with possible QLCS tornadoes as
convection develops eastward through the afternoon/evening. If any
discrete supercells develop, an all-hazards risk will also accompany
that activity.

Further south across southern KS into OK, supercell development may
be more probable, at least initially. Convection will initially
develop along the dryline prior to the cold front overtaking this
boundary later in the evening. Any supercells that develop and can
maintain discrete characteristics will pose a risk for very large
hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds. With time, the cold
front will overtake the dryline during the evening and move
southeast overnight. Linear convection is expected along the front,
posing a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk during the
nighttime hours.

Capping, weakening large-scale ascent and more modest vertical shear
with southern extent may limit storm potential along the dryline in western/west-central TX.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151933
SWODY3
SPC AC 151932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. A few tornadoes, possibly strong, very
large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on
Friday, with primary midlevel speed max intensifying from the
central Plains into the upper MS Valley. A southern stream system
will also intensify the upper-wind pattern from northern Mexico into
the southern Plains.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from MN into KS
Friday morning, progressing roughly to a WI to central MO to
northern OK line by 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front will push north
into WI, extending southeastward near Chicago.

Of particular note for this setup are model trends, which have
consistently shown the cold front pushing farther east and south
than the previous model runs. This results in a lower confidence
forecast in terms of the precise area of greatest threat and degree
of tornado potential.

Despite these uncertainties, the environment ahead of the cold front
will be quite favorable for supercells, with steep midlevel lapse
rates, ample shear, and strong instability. These factors will
clearly favor very large damaging hail, a risk of tornadoes, and
eventually damaging winds. A broad 40-50 kt low-level jet will
contribute to favorable low-level shear for tornadoes, and a couple
strong tornadoes will be possible prior to the cold front and
aggregate outflows undercutting the initial activity. Favored areas
for tornadoes will be southern KS into western/northern OK in
proximity to the dryline, and farther north into eastern IA and
southern WI where SRH will be stronger near the low.

Even if the cold front surges faster than currently indicated, a
widespread damaging wind threat could occur. Trends will continue to
be monitored as the event nears.

..Jewell.. 04/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160707
SWODY3
SPC AC 160705

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across part of the Ohio
Valley.

...Ohio Valley...

A large-scale upper trough oriented over the Upper Midwest and
Plains will shift east over the Great Lakes, Midwest and TN Valley
on Saturday/Saturday night. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
will overspread the Ohio Valley ahead of an eastward-advancing cold
front. This front should be located from Lower MI into southeast MO
Saturday morning, moving across the Ohio Valley through early
evening. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of
the front. Daytime heating into the 70s and modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates will support weak destabilization (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While instability will be modest, strong low and
midlevel flow will support organized cells and/or line segments
capable of strong gusts. Any discrete cellular activity also may
produce marginally severe hail. These severe risk should gradually
wane during the evening with eastward extent.

...TX to the Lower MS Valley...

Thunderstorms are expected along a southeast-advancing cold front
Saturday afternoon and evening. Deep-layer flow will be oriented
parallel to the front, and convection may largely be anafrontal or
quickly undercut by the front. While weak MUCAPE is noted in
forecast soundings, severe potential is not expected at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161927
SWODY3
SPC AC 161926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley
on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending
from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F
to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE.

Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it
moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds
at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the
front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new
development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be
poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient
shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially
into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over
northern areas, with some supercell potential.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170655
SWODY3
SPC AC 170653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to
southeast Canada during the day on Sunday. A cold front is forecast
to initially exist from southeast Virginia to the Florida Panhandle.
The cold front will move into the Atlantic and Gulf as surface high
pressure builds in its wake.

Some lingering moisture and weak instability will likely be present
ahead of the front Sunday morning. By late morning, heating may be
sufficient for some storms along and ahead of the front. However,
given the weak instability, no severe weather is expected. This
front will continue southeast into the Atlantic/Gulf by late
afternoon and bring an end to any storm threat across the CONUS
(except for the Florida Peninsula).

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

$$

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