ACUS11 KWNS 150028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150028=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest Missouri...Southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150028Z - 150230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to occur
along a cold front sagging into parts of NE/KS/IA/MO. A few severe thunderstorms may occur with large hail being the main concern. A
watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front sagging
southward across parts of NE/IA. Meanwhile, strengthening
southwesterly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture
northward, with 60s dewpoints now as far north as northern
MO/central KS. The leading edge of the richer moisture is expected
to begin interacting with the approaching cold front in the next
couple of hours, leading to rapid thunderstorm development.=20
Sufficient shear profiles will promote a risk of organized multicell
and occasional supercell structures, capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon for this activity.

..Hart.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!41NPyGRXfHnw8Bw7A-qTq77lvC3ZgeQcxEHLvTG7h3jqrAjgGuoFDnR8KFjdck9i6famOIL2T= jXOuzsbhWgYr1BFUbQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 39979789 40999551 41479305 41249224 40669221 40359314
39799544 39479698 39369767 39629799 39979789=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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