ACUS11 KWNS 150647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150647=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-150815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Southern IA into far northwest IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...117...

Valid 150647Z - 150815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115, 117
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist overnight, though an
eventual weakening trend is expected.

DISCUSSION...Within an extensive area of convection across Iowa, a
small north-south oriented line segment has evolved south of Des
Moines. This line segment earlier produced a gust of 52 kt at
Creston, IA, and remains relatively vigorous within a moderately
unstable and favorably sheared environment. A threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly marginal hail could continue in the short
term, before increasing MLCINH eventually leads to a weakening trend
and/or a tendency for outflow to surge ahead of convection with
time.=20

A marginal severe threat could persist across eastern portions of WW
115 after its 07 UTC expiration, but this watch may be allowed to
expire unless a short-term uptick occurs. An isolated severe threat
remains evident across downstream WW 117, but this watch may
eventually be cancelled early if a definitive weakening trend is
observed.

..Dean/Smith.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5h2Yo5C6ANrXvDJBxJ_FOu18rOjHshfnZi4Zif2sgCAaC0AiNukjO36E4vF-Ky2UqWf5cV_gf= TtcmGYrnUTxojNFe5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON 41429342 41649127 41679054 41709018 41359023 40929072
40699161 40599320 40729360 40749374 40909358 41429342=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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