ACUS11 KWNS 151851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151850=20
IAZ000-152015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119...

Valid 151850Z - 152015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms may be transitioning to surface-based, with an
increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a localized
tornado risk. Very large hail also remains possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived, previously elevated supercell continues
tracking along the composite outflow/stationary boundary in central
IA. Ahead of this storm, temperatures are warming into the upper 60s
to near 70 amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints, which may yield a
transition to surface-based inflow. Visible satellite imagery
corroborates this, as billow clouds are transitioning to HCRs
along/immediately south of the boundary. This transition to
surface-based storms should favor an increasing risk of damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a localized tornado risk -- given locally
boosted SRH along/immediately south of the boundary. Very large hail
also remains a concern with supercells.

..Weinman.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5fRUe1hCH3-qOwobygFCzWPHUtdG7MmJ0pBujN_1Fx3KAJQjVjCEXtWQOs33UEKGwSX31Hj7A= OP21Oplr_Owzp0ewGs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...

LAT...LON 41559377 41709411 42069419 42319407 42449369 42459280
42299255 41929250 41649277 41559377=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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