ACUS11 KWNS 151938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151938=20
TXZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151938Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany some of the
stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of an eastward progressing dryline, to the west
of a low-level WAA regime contaminated by clouds, a CU field is
rapidly developing given ample insolation. Deep-layer ascent is
rather weak south of the Red River, but modest flow above 500 mb is
resulting in 40-50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear. When
considering 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, multicells and perhaps transient
supercells are possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail
threat. The overall coverage of severe wind and hail should be
isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_XF4rEOu_6eYg1KBPf3EncdfHGI18xSwYp9lpDNZmDZ724GVlZQeFdYtjZ4T8Cbk85vVpFTQv= f1HfnBDXccx-0wDbco$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29620181 32640043 33199961 33219913 32949874 32329880
31469922 30479986 29850036 29410077 29350116 29620181=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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