ACUS11 KWNS 152053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152053=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northwest PA and southwest NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152053Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
thunderstorm potential. An eventual watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving at the nose of a
30-kt south-southwesterly low-level jet (per VWP data) and related
weak low-level warm advection plume in northwest PA into southwest
NY. In the near term, a marginally unstable air mass coupled with
around 40 kt of effective shear could promote a couple loosely
organized cells capable of producing locally damaging gusts and
marginally severe hail. While the severe threat may be too
localized/marginal in the near term for a watch, upstream
thunderstorm clusters should eventually move into this area with an
increasing risk of damaging winds. Trends are being monitored, and
an eventual watch issuance is possible.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6YDHcKt4oLUS91CgVnlHMMD6HznhptKWTSB7dbiPllRMNtNUyq3zlStPa0FLWZtMsa-nkh594= BNWyF4lW0Wxq5b5sjs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41057806 41027932 41277981 42167982 42627961 42777911
42837855 42537785 42177757 41697756 41057806=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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