ACUS11 KWNS 152316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152315=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-160115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and northern Missouri into
central and eastern Iowa into far western Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...

Valid 152315Z - 160115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch 122. Hail
and damaging winds are likely. A couple tornadoes also remain
possible. A downstream WW could be needed later this evening, though
storm longevity is unclear.

DISCUSSION...Across WW122, several clusters of severe supercells
have emerged early this evening, one northeast of the KC Metro and
another broader cluster into central IA. Numerous reports of severe
hail have occurred with these storms thus far. The environment
continues to be favorable for supercells and large hail with
moderate buoyancy and 50 kt of deep-layer shear.

Some clustering has already been noted, and is likely to continue.
Additional development has been noted behind these initial storms as
the cold front has overtaken the dryline. With expected upscale
growth (supported by radar trends and recent CAMS) a greater risk
for damaging winds may evolve with a line/cluster over the next
couple of hours across central and northern MO.

While low-level shear is modest, at least some risk for a couple of
tornadoes remains possible. A slight increase in low-level hodograph
size this evening across northern MO and southeast IA could support
somewhat better tornado chances (in addition to damaging gusts) if
an established line or bow with organized mesovorticies evolves.
However, this is uncertain.

Given the broadly favorable environment, the severe risk will
continue across WW122. Downstream, the loss of diurnal heating casts significant uncertainty on storm longevity later this evening. Some
severe risk may persist, and a downstream watch appears possible.

..Lyons.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!45Ljoee6JkGWF6O6AiJK61CWeL3x7aIYNIWgiChCYPZfTSs06qxyJ32n453U-5z2IyAe8cctz= 2rQQ8x0-W-anlO3zVo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...
EAX...

LAT...LON 38049391 38269447 39049457 40819366 41679312 41729305
42539162 42629079 42548964 42398935 41958947 41288983
39179118 38379225 38099310 38049315 38009334 38049391=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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