ACUS11 KWNS 160135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160134=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to southern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...124...

Valid 160134Z - 160300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121, 124 continues.

SUMMARY...Two corridors of severe threat are expected to persist
until 03-05z from the Kansas/Oklahoma border into southern Missouri,
and from southeast Oklahoma into west central/northwest Arkansas.=20
WW 121 will be extended until 05z.

DISCUSSION...Convection has evolved into two primary corridors along
composite outflow boundaries: 1) from the KS/OK border eastward
into MO, and 2) from southeast OK toward west central AR. The
northern corridor still has sufficient buoyancy to maintain a
wind/hail and isolated tornado threat, based on the 00z SGF
sounding. The bowing segment in south central MO will approach
areas west of Saint Louis, but it is unclear if the storms will
maintain intensity past the MS River.

The southern corridor of storms will likewise persist for another
couple of hours in an environment with moderate buoyancy and
sufficient deep-layer vertical shear to maintain a severe threat.=20
The large mass of convection and an expansive cold pool suggest that
the storms will persist, but buoyancy decreases gradually with
eastward extent. A local extension in time of WW 121 until 05z
would likely cover the remaining threat across southeast OK and
southwest MO.

..Thompson.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-XFgwsGmCQxCz4_ALm463aDv149tkGm11aR-7ZutBvNwH96TzcssTdnpT7TuC0kcHb8CEzMJM= YSjZ5D0u5uiPRP10kw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 34749409 34419470 34059567 33969600 34099644 34479632
35029540 35689453 36139402 36669417 36819467 36819579
37159590 37909388 38769108 38339074 37189243 35319347
34749409=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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