ACUS11 KWNS 161837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161836=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-162000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania
and northern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161836Z - 162000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts or an instance of hail are possible
with the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should be
isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A surface trough continues to rapidly approach the
northern Appalachians, where a relatively deep, mixed boundary layer
is in place. MRMS mosaic radar imagery and visible satellite depict
deepening convection along/immediately ahead of the surface trough,
and the current expectation is for this trend to continue through
the afternoon hours as the surface trough sweeps across the northern Appalachians. Given steep 0-3 km lapse rates in place (as shown by
18Z mesoanalysis), evaporative cooling with the stronger storm cores
may promote the efficient production of strong wind gusts, some of
which could be damaging. An instance or two of hail may also be
observed given elongated hodographs (per RAP forecast soundings).
Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain isolated, so a
WW issuance is unlikely.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-2zmb97XAzs9SCZhq7vshAMC1Ga-hFDuzJovYlLVRxP7fnZ5lwC3Vc-b_tzprDjjbiZMjs-Ql= JvKlVdnSQU265_U-9w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 39018204 40428162 41268130 41898066 42147995 42037930
41807899 41197890 40437916 39727954 39248002 39008059
38878126 39018204=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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