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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0465

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 16 20:23:14 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 162023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162022=20
    KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-162215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0465
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri...northern
    Arkansas...and western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127...

    Valid 162022Z - 162215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and damaging wind continues within
    W127.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues across southern
    Missouri into northeastern Arkansas. A few discrete supercells have
    developed, with history of hail 2-2.75 inches in diameter. Given the
    moderate to strong instability and steep lapse rates across the
    region from western MO/AR to the Mississippi River, expect
    supercells to continue to pose a threat for large to very large hail
    over the next couple of hours. Though areas of stable billow clouds
    continue across western Arkansas, a few attempts at initiation have
    been noted. Guidance continues to indicate that a few isolated cells
    could develop across this region later in the afternoon. Threats
    here would similarly be fore large to very large hail.

    Storms may cluster through time, with a change in mode and shift
    more of a damaging wind threat. Further east across western KY into
    western TN, less favorable air and decreasing moisture should limit
    the severe risk with eastern extent. Local expansion of WW127 may be
    needed in western TN/KY if storms progress into this region by late afternoon/evening.

    ..Thornton.. 04/16/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6aM8E6YMOGxm4PN2__Xrpv5XzNm_HBxAPdwDBESmiD3sBQ4wytwckmMt3z9KPa6ZXjIc0ynK9= QvppNByT2KoVxFgHnk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 38189050 38068996 37798913 37628892 37328889 36978890
    36678899 36058978 35759243 36019353 36249366 36639352
    37019339 37229330 37999244 38239194 38189050=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)