ACUS11 KWNS 162040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162040=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-162245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127...

Valid 162040Z - 162245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated risk for supercells capable of large hail and
damaging wind through the late afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been noted across southwestern OK
over the last 1-2 hours. Forcing in this region is generally weak,
with the shortwave trough to the north and dry mid-level air noted
in water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, strong daytime heating has
occurred (with temperature in the 80s). This in combination with dew
points in the upper 60s to 70s has yielded MLCAPE around 2500-3000
J/kg amid strong deep layer shear around 40 kts. Guidance suggests
that an isolated supercell or two could develop within this region. Conditionally, these would support a risk for large hail and
damaging wind. This area will be monitored for potential development
and need for watch extension.

..Thornton.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_d2yLQpAsXWiiQIFq5vLDSL59-8jH1Kjcp9_Q862IkO8sqhlwhxmmS2ERVTQRr2zcmTRNXZqa= be7XeB7oeSwhq6VgJI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34619254 35199253 35509269 35759291 35959338 36059366
36099470 34959567 34399580 33959558 33889508 33849473
34049323 34619254=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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