ABNT20 KNHC 201151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul
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ABNT20 KNHC 221140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located about 500 miles east-southeast
of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days before it moves into a region of strong upper-level
winds. This system is expected to move northeastward over the
central Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 231145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that disorganized showers and
thunderstorms are displaced to the east of an area of low pressure
located about 600 miles east of Bermuda. Environmental conditions
are still marginally favorable for further development, and an
increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression today. By Tuesday, this system is
expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions,
ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to
move northeastward around 10 mph, remaining over the open central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 241226
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update AL90 formation chances

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
has become better organized in association with a small gale-force
low-pressure system located about 900 miles east-northeast of
Bermuda. This system will likely become a short-lived tropical
storm later today before more hostile environmental conditions end
its opportunity for development by this evening. The low is
forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while
remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 251139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 271139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Bay of Campeche:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean sea and the adjacent land areas is expected
to move west-northwestward into the Bay of Campeche Saturday or
Saturday night, where an area of low pressure could form.
Subsequent development is possible on Sunday or Monday if the system
remains offshore of the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 281135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Bay of Campeche (AL91):
An area of low pressure located in the eastern Bay of Campeche near
the Mexican coastline continues to produce a broad region of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the Yucatan
Peninsula and adjacent waters. Additional development is possible
today and Sunday as the low moves generally west-northwestward, and
a tropical depression could form during this period while the system
remains over the waters of the Bay of Campeche. By Monday, this
system should move inland over eastern Mexico, ending its chances of development. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 291153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located in the Bay of Campeche.

Southeastern U.S. Coastline:
Towards the end of this week into next weekend, an area of low
pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along
the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts. Some gradual
tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it
drifts slowly just off the U.S. coastline.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 301139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
Remnants of Barry, located inland over eastern Mexico.

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S.,
over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or
subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves
little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 011132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters
off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur
thereafter as the low drifts and moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 021133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal
boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression
could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while
the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly
across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 031131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening
frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States by Saturday. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow
development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in
this region over the weekend or early next week while the system
drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,
particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 041153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of low pressure located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida
coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or
subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while
the system drifts northward. This low is expected to move inland
over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early
Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning
later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven
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