ACUS03 KWNS 220657
SWODY3
SPC AC 220656

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western
Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

...Southern/Central Plains...

The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue
across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest
shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into
the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee
troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline
will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX.
Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will
slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a
broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected
across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be
ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where
better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any
outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large
hail and strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030731
SWODY3
SPC AC 030730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max
will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into
the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches,
winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel
winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys.

At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into
central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The
northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary
through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave
developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front,
with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern
AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help
maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level
shear for a tornado risk.

...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley...
Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the
OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by
low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail.

Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective
AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast.
However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets
of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western
TN/northern MS.

Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel
lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days.
However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells
and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it
surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast
into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk
area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071913
SWODY3
SPC AC 071912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle
Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms
are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will dive southeastward from the
northern Plains into the mid MS/OH Valleys, as an upper high builds
over the West. High pressure will exist behind an exiting
northeastern trough, and ahead of the Plains trough. As such, this
system will interact with very limited moisture and instability.

A plume of low-level lapse rates/heating will develop late in the
day from KS into MO, toward an area of low pressure. This low will
travel east toward IN by 12Z Thursday, with a strong cold front
extending south into LA and MS by that time.

Though only weakly unstable, thunderstorms are expected over parts
of the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley. Forecast soundings
depict a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, with relatively dry sub-cloud
layers and strong shear. While strong gusts cannot be ruled out with
some of the convection, the overall threat appears low.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111922
SWODY3
SPC AC 111921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify
as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an
area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains
into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this
surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of
this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast
which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday
afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within
the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and
the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However,
strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm
potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization
should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow
corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization
and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is
unclear if/where this may occur at this time.

...CO/KS...
A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front
across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave
trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is
expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential
isolated.

..Bentley.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120722
SWODY3
SPC AC 120721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and
evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes
eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its
wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet
will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the
Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave
will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the
ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great
Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States...
A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and
evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region.
Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal,
but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of
guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s
surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH
Valley, ahead of the surface cold front.

Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated
thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the
Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the
confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong
700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly
sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds,
low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This
setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster
spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes
and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the
higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a
threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields,
before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night.

..Grams.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121931
SWODY3
SPC AC 121930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
WEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, a few severe, are possible on Monday afternoon and
evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes
on Monday, with a leading speed max moving across the OH Valley
during the day and a secondary stronger wave arriving overnight.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen from Lake Superior into
southwest Quebec, with a cold front extending southwestward across
OH and into the OH Valley during the day. Just off the surface, 850
mb winds will be veered to westerly, with speeds increasing to
around 40 kt with the cold front passage.

High pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the
Southeast, but a narrow plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will develop
ahead of the cold front. Midlevel moistening with the lead wave will
shift east from MO across IL, IN, OH and northern KY during the day.

...Northern KY into OH, WV, PA, MD...
Increasing midlevel moisture, as well as low-level moisture
advection will lead to gradual destabilization, but also perhaps
reduced daytime heating ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings
from several models indicate relatively poor lapse rates below 700
mb with a relative warm nose at that level. Midlevel cooling will
still result in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, likely elevated instability
over northern areas. That said, increasing mean boundary-layer wind
speeds near the front and potential for pockets of stronger
instability/heating could still yield strong to severe gusts, and,
marginal hail as hodographs will be long.

..Jewell.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130728
SWODY3
SPC AC 130727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Eastern NC...
Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to
afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and
intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the
coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending
towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days.
This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe
development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind
profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around
early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level
1-MRGL risk.

...Southwest...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a
low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO
Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and
weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential.

..Grams.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150722
SWODY3
SPC AC 150721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN
MO/EASTERN NE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern
Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa.

...Synopsis...
A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie
Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface
cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon,
with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into
MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great
Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the
baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night.

...IA/MO/NE...
Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm
front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing
at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity
may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for
isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated
in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm
potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in
the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away
from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture
return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume
of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering
wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and
supercell potential.

As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater
convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms
producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the
post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS
Valley by early morning Friday.

..Grams.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151905
SWODY3
SPC AC 151904

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...EASTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern/central
Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Large scale troughing is progged from portions of the Canadian
Prairies into the Intermountain West and Great Basin on Thursday. A
deepening surface low will shift eastward across the northern
central/high Plains, with a dryline extending from southern Nebraska
into central Kansas and Oklahoma. A triple point formed by a
secondary surface low circulation, dryline, and a frontal
boundary/modified outflow in central Nebraska will be the focus of
additional development by the late afternoon/evening across
central/eastern Nebraska.

...Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri...
Elevated thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the D3 period across portions of eastern Nebraska into
western Iowa and Missouri. Some instances of severe hail will be
possible with this activity.

Moisture return will be ongoing through much of the day, with upper
50s to 60s dew points from central Nebraska into Iowa, eastern
Kansas, and western Missouri. Additional development is expected
late afternoon into the early evening across the aforementioned
triple point in central Nebraska. Daytime heating and moisture
return will yield MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg amid steep low to
mid-level lapse rates and ample deep layer shear. This environment
will support supercells, some of which may be initially surface
based and capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Further east
across Iowa and northern Missouri, MLCIN will be in place behind
morning convection. Cells may become elevated with eastward
movement, but will still pose potential for large hail and damaging
wind. The Slight was expanded westward into Nebraska to support this
potential. Storms will continue into portions of western Illinois
through the end of the period.

..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160725
SWODY3
SPC AC 160724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great
Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon
Friday into Friday night.

...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains...
Overall forecast scenario remains consistent to prior days with an
expansive swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies, downstream of a
longwave trough from northern ON to the Southwest. This will overlap
a similarly oriented surface front, with a cyclone tracking across
the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the
day and a separate low anchored over the southern High Plains.

Mid-level height change appears largely neutral during the first
half of the period, with weak height falls Friday night. A corridor
of elevated thunderstorms across the far northern portion of the
outlook area may be ongoing Friday morning. These could pose a risk
of severe hail downstream through the day. With a pronounced EML
across much of the warm sector, storm development may be delayed
until late afternoon to early evening. Guidance also hints at mid to upper-level cloud coverage curtailing boundary-layer heating and
weakening lapse rates aloft across the southern Great Plains, along
with pockets of more shallow boundary-layer moisture near the
dryline. Latest trends are for storm development generally along and
to the cool side of the stalled to slowing surface front from OK to
the Mid-MS Valley on Friday evening. Increasing storm coverage is
anticipated Friday night northeastward into the central Great Lakes
and southward in TX. Convection may predominately organize into
clusters in this setup, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a
mix of scattered large hail and damaging winds.

..Grams.. 04/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031924
SWODY3
SPC AC 031923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a
larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet
streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a
closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the
ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing
frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An
unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front
which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on
Saturday and Saturday night.

...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells
across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring
dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely
support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as
it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will
strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such
as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into
Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone.
The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing
and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust
morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater
supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced
available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting
mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface
low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a
significant severe weather threat on Saturday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley...
Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front
from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning.
Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant
destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist
airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south
of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms
from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101931
SWODY3
SPC AC 101930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest...
A mid-level ridge will deamplify through the day on Saturday as a
mid-level shortwave trough progresses out of the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains. Large-scale ascent will strengthen near
peak diurnal heating across parts of the central Rockies to the
Black Hills. With limited buoyancy, isolated/short-lived
thunderstorms are anticipated amid scattered high-based/low-topped
showers. Where deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles exist in eastern
WY and western SD, isolated strong wind gusts are possible.

As the low-level jet strengthens across the central Plains on
Saturday night, sufficient elevated instability could support some thunderstorms across the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest.
Limited moisture/instability should limit any large hail threat from
this activity.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110719
SWODY3
SPC AC 110718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning
is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper
Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central
Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average
spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on
placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to
identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat,
given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a
pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern
destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible
across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of
elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a
broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime.
Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail.


...CO/KS...
Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a
favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by
late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should
support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes
increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance
has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where
convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder
area in this forecast.

..Grams.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110823
SWODY3
SPC AC 110822

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning
is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper
Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central
Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average
spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on
placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to
identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat,
given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a
pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern
destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible
across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of
elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a
broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime.
Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail.

...CO/KS...
Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a
favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by
late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should
support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes
increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance
has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where
convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder
area in this forecast.

..Grams.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131908
SWODY3
SPC AC 131907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move rapidly eastward from the Great Lakes
and OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface
high pushing into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. The drying
behind this system will significantly reduce thunderstorm chances
over much of the CONUS on Tuesday.

A very low chance of early day convection may exist over far eastern
NC, and over eastern New England as elevated moisture wraps
northwestward toward the low. Elsewhere, isolated general
thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon over the Sierra, and
into parts of western CO in association with midlevel moisture and
cool temperatures aloft.

..Jewell.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140719
SWODY3
SPC AC 140718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night.

...West to Central States...
A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated
starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning
Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig
southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain
West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should
drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis
should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with
modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward.

In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the
strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing
longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in
the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity,
surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of
elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level
jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on
amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in
if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday.

..Grams.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141921
SWODY3
SPC AC 141920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central
Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a
broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US
trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe,
owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles.

...Central Plains...
Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central
Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given
marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML.

As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will
result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level
jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the
early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will
spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be
tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north
of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development
occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with
this outlook.

..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171908
SWODY3
SPC AC 171907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central
Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec,
deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough
will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take
on a negative tilt into Sunday morning.

At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS
Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower
60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary,
with the most substantial instability developing from west-central
TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the
southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and
strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper
trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase
lift over TX and OK.

...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA...
Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on
Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e
advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds.
While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient
elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may
support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating
will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of
the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells
may produce marginal hail over OH and PA.

...TX/OK into the Ozarks...
Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the
day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm
sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor
due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms.

Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the
cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX
during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the
low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may
develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to
undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and
into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day
3 Excessive Rainfall Product).

..Jewell.. 04/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180704
SWODY3
SPC AC 180703

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the
Middle Mississippi Valley.

...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley...

An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will
lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early
Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK
to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the
Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface
low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the
Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate
deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector
ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe
hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of
supercells and linear segments.

However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast
details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are
expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact
which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite
of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared
to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday
may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better
resolved.

..Leitman.. 04/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181930
SWODY3
SPC AC 181929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the
lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging
wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern
Missouri into far western Illinois.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt
shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX
Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will
be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across
KS/MO/IA/IL.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA,
with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward
across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day.

As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across
far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible.
Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg.

Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles
will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado
potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS
type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a
region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across
far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into
western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated
tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening,
supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on
instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates.

..Jewell.. 04/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190716
SWODY3
SPC AC 190715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Ohio Valley...

An upper shortwave trough over the mid/upper MS Valley will lift
east/northeast across the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Monday. A belt of
enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread much of the
Midwest/Ohio Valley ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low
pressure over southern WI will lift northeast into Ontario/Quebec
and a trailing cold front will move across the Ohio Valley. A narrow
corridor of modest boundary layer moisture will overspread portions
of KY/IL/OH/MI ahead of the front. Modest destabilization may allow
for isolated diurnal thunderstorm development across the Ohio
Valley. Poor lapse rates and weak instability should temper overall
severe potential, but a few strong storms may produce gusty winds or
small hail.

...Southeast TX to TN Valley...

The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall across
the region. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the region as
the main upper shortwave trough continues to lift well to the
northeast. Nevertheless, diurnal heating and low to mid 60s F
dewpoints along the surface boundary will support isolated
thunderstorm development. A few stronger storms could produce gusty
winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears limited
given a lack of stronger forcing.

..Leitman.. 04/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211919
SWODY3
SPC AC 211918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and
central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee
surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A
stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the
central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should
destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak
perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide
ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a
mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this
GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across
much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado.
However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the
front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the
state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have
significant implications on warm sector destabilization and
northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty
have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the
Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas,
Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the
dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been
added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind
gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 04/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040724
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be likely on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Marginally
severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern
Appalachians, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
A mid-level trough will move slowly eastward across the central U.S.
on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances eastward across the
central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. Along and ahead of
the front, a large MCS will be ongoing at the start of the period.
This MCS will move eastward during the day. Ahead of the MCS,
warming surface temperatures across a very moist airmass, and
moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for isolated severe
storms. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon in the central Gulf
Coast states near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In
addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to steepen during the
day. This should be favorable for isolated severe storms. Supercell
development will be possible along or ahead of the line, mainly in
areas where instability becomes the strongest. Bowing line segments
will also be possible within the line itself. The primary threat is
expected to be wind damage, but an isolated tornado threat will also
be possible. The greatest severe potential appears likely to shift
eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into Georgia and the
eastern Florida Panhandle by early evening.

...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
At the start of the period, a cold front is forecast to be located
from the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. The
northern end of a large MCS will likely be ongoing, with this
convection moving eastward across the southern and central
Appalachians during the day. Ahead of the MCS, weak instability is
expected to develop. Forecast soundings ahead of the front have
MLCAPE peaking in the 250 to 500 J/kg range by afternoon. In
addition, a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak is forecast to move
across the Ohio Valley. This feature will create strong deep-layer
shear profiles, favorable for an isolated severe threat. As
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen ahead of the front, an
isolated wind-damage threat should develop. This threat may persist
through the afternoon, as a broken line of storms moves eastward
into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be likely on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Marginally
severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern
Appalachians, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet streak will shift east from the ArkLaTex to the
Appalachians during the day Sunday with some amplification of the
broader scale mid-level trough by the end of the period. A surface
front will also shift east through the period with a weak surface
low forecast to move along this boundary from MS/AL Sunday morning
to the Carolinas by Sunday night. A moist airmass will be in place
ahead of this front which should result in some severe weather
threat from southeast Mississippi to Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from eastern Tennessee to southeast Louisiana. Instability
should be relatively weak ahead of this line Sunday morning except
for where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints remain. This will initially
be from central Alabama southward and perhaps expanding into parts
of northern Georgia during the afternoon. Expansive cloudcover in a
moist/weak lapse rate environment should limit additional
destabilization. However, there should be sufficient instability for maintaining ongoing convection, potentially with some embedded
supercells. Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be the
primary threat.

...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing west of the Appalachians at the
beginning of the period. The combination of the terrain, and a drier
airmass along and east of the Appalachians will likely result in
this line of storms weakening on Sunday morning. Some moistening and
at least marginal heating through the cloud cover could result in
some weak destabilization east of the Appalachians. A few strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic as a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region and
the low-level jet intensifies.

..Bentley.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050709
SWODY3
SPC AC 050708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday
across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern
Florida.

...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the
southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of
the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will
contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that
MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the
afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create
moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable
for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is
expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is
maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along
this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the
40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary
layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat.
However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor
throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow.
This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061903
SWODY3
SPC AC 061902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme
southern Florida.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and
Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern
CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will
move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper
ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and
High Plains.

...Far southern FL...
A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf
across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered
thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold
front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal
levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these
reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL.

The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This
may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not
strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a
cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the
Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential.

..Jewell.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070720
SWODY3
SPC AC 070719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle
Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe
storms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward
from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the
period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the
central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front
moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of
the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited,
though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will
result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level
warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized
severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak
buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the
left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated
thunderstorms.

..Weinman.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191858
SWODY3
SPC AC 191857

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a
trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will
move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday
morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East
Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains.

A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from
western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon,
and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary,
severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will
experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to
the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is
forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak.

Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where
lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity
may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN
with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail
cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel
lapse rates and minimal melting.

..Jewell.. 04/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200711
SWODY3
SPC AC 200711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across
portions of the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much
of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained
across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow
envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest
shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the
surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and
southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward
across TX/OK/KS.

...Western TX/OK into southern KS...

Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across
the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a
weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the
southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening
boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface
heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the
southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending
from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled
surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These
boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development
by late afternoon.

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region,
aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates
an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the
evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping
between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed
with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm
coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized
thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with
a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a
Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included.

..Leitman.. 04/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201927
SWODY3
SPC AC 201926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across
portions of the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the
southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the
northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A
weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is
forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result
in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis.

...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas...
Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern
High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of
the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to
mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching
mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm
development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of
shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the
evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind
threat which could continue into the overnight hours.

A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern
Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus
for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability
remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not
forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow
ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has
been maintained at this time.

...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois...
Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak
instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern
Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing
for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day.
Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep
lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 04/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210705
SWODY3
SPC AC 210704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

A persistent low-amplitude, weak southwesterly flow pattern will
persist across the Plains and into the eastern U.S. on Day
3/Wednesday. Forecast guidance indicates some weak shortwave
perturbations will migrate through this weak southwesterly flow
aloft, emanating from a weak upper trough over the western U.S. At
the surface, southerly low-level flow will continue to transport
modified Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and into
the central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from
southern MN into central NE and northeast CO, while a dryline
extends southward across the central/southern High Plains.
Persistent moist advection will allow for weak to moderate
destabilization within the vicinity of the aforementioned surface
boundaries, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development will be possible by late afternoon/evening. Large hail
and strong gusts could accompany this activity from southwest NE
into western TX.

..Leitman.. 04/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051856
SWODY3
SPC AC 051855

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of
the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid
Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East
Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing
throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot
be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates
and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of
steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate
deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060711
SWODY3
SPC AC 060710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday along and
ahead of the front across parts of south Florida.

...South Florida...
A mid-level trough will move into the Northeast on Tuesday, as a
cold front advances southward across the southern Florida Peninsula.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to
the development of moderate instability across parts of south
Florida. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near and ahead
the front during the morning, with storms moving southeastward
across the southern Florida Peninsula. Forecast soundings in south
Florida during the mid to late morning have 0-6 km shear near 30
knots along with steep low-level lapse rates. This could be enough
for marginally severe gusts with the stronger cells. Any severe
threat that develops should end during the afternoon as the front
moves southward over the water.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080719
SWODY3
SPC AC 080718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted large-scale trough and accompanying midlevel
speed maximum will move southeastward from the Middle/Upper MS
Valley to the southern Appalachians through the period. At the same
time, a weak surface low will drift east-southeastward from the
Midwest into the central Appalachians, while a related cold front
overspreads the TN Valley during the afternoon/evening.

...Tennessee Valley...
Aided by strengthening DCVA in the left-exit region of the midlevel
jet, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along
the cold front as it moves southeastward across the TN Valley during
the afternoon and evening hours. Beneath steepening midlevel lapse
rates, diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf air mass will
yield upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the front. Despite the
somewhat marginal buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear
(characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will support a few organized/rotating storms -- both ahead of and behind the
southward-moving front. Weak/veered low-level flow will generally
limit the strength of forcing along the front, which should favor a semi-discrete mode and the potential for large hail and locally
damaging gusts.

..Weinman.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081908
SWODY3
SPC AC 081907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to
the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday
with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb)
expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold
temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which
will support weak to potentially moderate instability by
early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height,
will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall,
the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit
a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast
soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the
potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the
cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern
Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability
should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east,
the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support
a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio.

..Bentley.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090716
SWODY3
SPC AC 090716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated
severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

...Eastern North Carolina...
Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly
eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a
cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a
related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move
slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related
cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the
afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold
midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to
sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe
storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective
shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop.

The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the
timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if
the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk
will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore.

..Weinman.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091912
SWODY3
SPC AC 091911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA....

...SUMMARY...
A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern
Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will
be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on
Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level
shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a
surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning.
As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream
will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina
and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft
and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization
Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a
zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight
risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends
from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of
the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface
low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close
the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on
inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of
greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing
convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities
at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100654
SWODY3
SPC AC 100654

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest...
A mid-level ridge from the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest
at 12Z Saturday morning will shift east and gradually dampen, as a
shortwave trough progresses across the northern Rockies and into MT
through early Sunday. Large-scale ascent will strengthen near peak
diurnal heating across parts of the central Rockies to the Black
Hills. With only scant buoyancy, isolated/short-lived thunderstorms
are anticipated amid scattered high-based/low-topped showers. Where
deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles exist in eastern WY and western
SD, a very isolated strong gust will be possible.

Strengthening of the Great Plains LLJ on Saturday night should
eventually yield isolated thunder potential across the Mid-MO Valley
into the Upper Midwest. With poor-quality moisture return relative
to the EML, uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated. The threat
for severe hail overnight in this setup appears low.

..Grams.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161917
SWODY3
SPC AC 161916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great
Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon
Friday into Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly
flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the
southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend
roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface
low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development
is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the
Great Lakes region.

...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains...
An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering
risk of severe hail early.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the
afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be
delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the
boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the
dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags
southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the
boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected
to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles
are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and
clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of
favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of
large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes
across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep
low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very
large hail early on.

..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170722
SWODY3
SPC AC 170721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from central
Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.

...Southern Plains to southern MO...

An upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will pivot east toward
the southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. This will maintain
strong southwesterly flow aloft from TX into the Midwest. At the
surface, a front is expected to be draped from southern IL/MO into
northwest TX during the morning, with a dryline extending southward
across west-central TX in the vicinity of the Big Bend. Southerly
low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass ahead of these surface
boundaries, with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F. Some
convection could be ongoing during the morning in a warm advection
regime prior to the low-level jet weakening modestly during the day.
Stronger heating ahead of the surface boundary could allow for weak
to moderate destabilization by afternoon, and additional convection
is likely along the cold front/dryline as large-scale ascent
increases with the approach of the upper shortwave trough.

Vertical wind profiles suggest supercell potential, but storm mode
may quickly trend toward clusters/linear segments. Some risk for
large hail and damaging gusts appears possible with this activity
during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, with initial
convection developing over TX/OK and spreading into the Ozarks after
00z.

...Ohio Valley...

An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across Ontario/Quebec
and the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong
deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes/Northeast vicinity. A cold front and associated baroclinic
zone will sag south/southeast across the Ohio Valley vicinity with a
narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture forecast within
this region. Severe potential will largely be modulated by ongoing
convection Saturday morning and generally weak instability and lapse
rates. Nevertheless, strong flow and sufficient instability may
support strong gusts with thunderstorm clusters during the morning
and afternoon hours.

..Leitman.. 04/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221924
SWODY3
SPC AC 221923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western
Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

...Southern Kansas southwestward to the Transpecos region of
Texas...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period
near a weak front lying roughly west-to-east across Kansas. As the
storms sag southeastward with time, the combined front/convective
outflow will continue making slow southward progress.

Meanwhile, daytime heating/mixing across the Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Transpecos will support eastward mixing of a dryline through
the afternoon. With a moist boundary layer east of the dryline,
heating combined with the steep lapse rates/EML being maintained
across the area by moderate west-southwesterlies aloft will result
in moderate destabilization. This should support isolated storm
development near the dryline, perhaps most focused where the
southward-sagging outflow/cold front from Kansas intersects the
eastward-mixing dryline (somewhere in the southwestern
Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity).

The lack of stronger flow aloft should continue to limit shear
across the southern Plains region, but veering winds with height
should again support potential for mid-level rotation. Attendant
risks for large hail and locally gusty/damaging winds warrant
continuation of MRGL/5% severe probability. Some thought was given
to a small SLGT risk upgrade, near the intersection of the dryline
and the outflow-reinforced front mentioned earlier, as backed
low-level flow may yield a bit more favorable of a wind profile
locally. However, with some uncertainty evident with respect to if,
and how far, the front can progress southward through the day, have
opted not to upgrade at this time.

..Goss.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230658
SWODY3
SPC AC 230658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma
and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...

Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening
upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper
ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating
will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon
where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be
ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to
what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is
forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS
Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late
afternoon/early evening.

Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead
of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across
western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated
thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead
of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts,
though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through
700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes
amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated
hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger
updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates
also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is
somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing
mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears
likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for
parts of OK/TX.

..Leitman.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231921
SWODY3
SPC AC 231921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma
and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great
Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially
over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is
forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes
through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec
overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift
southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly
southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region.

Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is
forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of
the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream
ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the
period.

...Southern Plains...
Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold
front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector
capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment,
both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the
Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant
outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The
combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear
suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and
locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected
during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection
through the overnight hours.

...Elsewhere...
Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms
capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected
across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and
ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is
expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any
severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local.

..Goss.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240659
SWODY3
SPC AC 240658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas.

...Southern High Plains...

An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on
Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the
Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across
the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the
overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central
NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and
south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low
60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse
rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to
moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across
eastern NM into western TX.

Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection
Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe
potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts.
While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a
few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west
TX.

..Leitman.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241916
SWODY3
SPC AC 241915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas.

...Discussion...
Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central
and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface
baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas
and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across
the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with
ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward
progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain
roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for
storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale
subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple
of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or
wind are expected.

..Goss.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
evening/night.

...Discussion...
A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the
Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level
trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this
occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer
low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens
across the High Plains.

Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending
from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to
upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will
support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast
soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the
dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline
circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated
supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm
coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a
favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all
severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop.

Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities
increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced
across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where
the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell
development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more
widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north
of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota
Sunday night.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251932
SWODY3
SPC AC 251931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
evening/night.

...Synopsis...
Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough
will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace
persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in
the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will
begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low
shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of
the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas.

...The Plains...
Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in
advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating
to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping
-- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread
development of diurnal storms.

By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development
is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity
just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here,
increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide
sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely
accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the
advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would
likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic
environment that would support organized/rotating storms.

Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated
warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should
sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk.

..Goss.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260742
SWODY3
SPC AC 260741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the
Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong
to intense tornadoes are likely.

...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense
tornadoes is possible on Monday...

...Midwest into the Upper Midwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a
surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the
northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow
will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into
parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will
support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm
sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western
Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet
streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become
more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across
Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear,
embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening
low-level shear.

Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within
a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens
through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward,
creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong
instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing
during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping
across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will
be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing
dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly
favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of
strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will
likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front
advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes
will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the
overnight hours.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist
along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West
Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak
height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal
inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm
development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase
during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat
for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261940
SWODY3
SPC AC 261939

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the
Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large
hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected.

...Synopsis...
Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt
upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during
the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday
morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast
across the Upper Great Lakes.

...Upper Midwest...
Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND
arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail
may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along
the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm
development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track
across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the
northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day.
Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward
destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree
of severe threat here.

South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced
destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid
strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures
during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to
support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater
coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more
linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage
trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an
increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level
jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The
southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open
warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong
tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake
much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will
remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the
overnight hours.

...KS/MO to west TX...
A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the
dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north
with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most
probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet
increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This
could support isolated supercells into Monday night.

..Grams.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270654
SWODY3
SPC AC 270653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a
frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern
Great Lakes.

...Discussion...
A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday
afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability
but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana
and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New
York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado
threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a
greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana.

Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the
front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be
present south of this front which should allow for moderate to
strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not
that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters
and perhaps a supercell or two.

Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in
the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South
and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best
environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas
Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the
approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day.
The combination of height falls along the dryline and a
strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells
capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to
evening.

..Bentley.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271929
SWODY3
SPC AC 271929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH
TO WESTERN PA/NY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great
Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is
apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern
Midwest to Lower Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great
Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the
Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface
cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the
Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the
central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker
surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos.

...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...
The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at
least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead
of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies
should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing
in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley.
While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain,
potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust
low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level
height falls north of the international border, overall setup could
favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge
into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a
significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time.

...TX/OK...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period
along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone.
This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater
severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed
in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist
through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at
training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast
oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable
scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that
corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late
afternoon to early evening.

..Grams.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280734
SWODY3
SPC AC 280733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern
Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects
into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday.
Surface low development is expected across western Texas on
D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central
Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is
expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of
central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon,
additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near
the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe
wind, hail, and a tornado.

...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma...
Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central
Texas into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon will pose some severe
potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection
and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable
instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead
of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells
before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur.
Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep
lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low
level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early
supercell modes.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280818
SWODY3
SPC AC 280817

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern
Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects
into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday.
Surface low development is expected across western Texas on
D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central
Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is
expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of
central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon,
additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near
the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe
wind, hail, and a tornado.

...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma...
Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central
Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe
potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection
and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable
instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead
of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells
before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur.
Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep
lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low
level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early
supercell modes.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281924
SWODY3
SPC AC 281923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak
surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects
towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2
will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys
and Midwest.

...Southern Great Plains...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over
western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm
theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle
as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east.
Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture
plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and
additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A
mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the
primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode.

In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable
in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary
uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related
to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell
development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a
10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now.
Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage
over the TX Panhandle.

...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to
early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing
north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal
MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with
moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells
within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging
winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible
along the front.

..Grams.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290718
SWODY3
SPC AC 290717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area
of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward
through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm
development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A
primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this
activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better
shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air
mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA.
Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far
north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is
forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region.

Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be
ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the
afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably
unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting
northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat
lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible.

Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow
will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be
weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe
hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291928
SWODY3
SPC AC 291927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the
Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to
severe winds and hail.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the
Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a
second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS.
As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over
the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts
east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across
Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is
forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid
Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period.

...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of --
portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this
initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas
where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous
convective development. In general however, a midday/early
afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and
Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and
potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into
the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across
the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a
few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall
risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary
risks.

Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but
also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT
risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time
uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection
developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber
wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the
evening as storms nocturnally weaken.

..Goss.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern
plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable
of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern
Texas.

...Discussion...
The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the
Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending
from New England southward across the mid-South and into the
southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across
southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of
damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass
ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued
maintenance south and eastward.

Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near
the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells
capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to
gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a
more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless,
potential exists for large hail and damaging winds.

Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal
boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains
unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for
strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability
will extend along and south of the front across this region, but
flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with
this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301929
SWODY3
SPC AC 301928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the
Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas.
Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and hail.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to
dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength
feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the
end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches
the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become
highly amplified and progressive into the weekend.

At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great
Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday
morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward
to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region.

...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions
of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the
aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation
will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the
region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This,
combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms,
but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the
front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes.

From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more
unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial
low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However,
widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area
westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just
north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and
progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely
influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through
the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a
broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further
refinement of the area likely in later outlooks.

..Goss.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010717
SWODY3
SPC AC 010716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH
TEXAS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast to New England and across far South Texas.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast
on Saturday. At the surface a cold front will advance across the
Appalachians and eventually off the Atlantic Coast and will also
extend westward near the Gulf Coast, and into South Texas. High
pressure will build into the Midwest in the wake of this cold front.


...East Coast...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a
cold front during the afternoon as some destabilization occurs east
of the Appalachians. An expansive area of upper 50s to low 60s
dewpoints will be present east of the Appalachians on Saturday. Some
heating is expected during the afternoon which may lead to weak to
potentially moderate instability. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast
to be weak with only marginally strong shear. Given this
environment, a few multicell storms are possible along and ahead of
the eastward advancing cold front. However, more widespread coverage
of severe storms is not anticipated at this time.

...Far South Texas...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along a front as it moves south across Texas. A very moist airmass
with steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place with 45 to 50
knots of deep-layer shear. Therefore, organized storms, including
the potential for supercells exists during the morning hours
Saturday before the front moves into northern Mexico/the Gulf.

..Bentley.. 05/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by
Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys,
downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near
southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH
Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front
trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with
boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection
through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy
in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming
a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of
stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low,
there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing
isolated wind damage.

Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the
Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage
is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon,
with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue
Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind
damage and some hail will be possible.

There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a
portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the
influence of convection prior to D3.

...Deep South TX...
A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday
night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday.
There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the
effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for
additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain
the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent
updates.

..Thompson.. 05/01/2025

$$

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