ACUS01 KWNS 271622
SWODY1
SPC AC 271620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe
gusts capable of producing wind damage should be the primary hazard,
but isolated hail may also occur.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
30-40 kt of mid-level westerly flow will be present today across
parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic, sandwiched between an upper
trough over Ontario/Quebec and a mid-level anticyclone centered over
the western Atlantic. A west-east oriented front, modulated by
ongoing convection, will serve as a focus and northern limit for
severe potential. Latest surface observations show a rather moist
low-level airmass present along/south of this boundary (also
reference the 12Z observed soundings from IAD/RNK), with surface
dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s. Lapse rates aloft are
expected to remain poor, and persistent cloud cover will slow
daytime heating.

Still, weak to moderate instability (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) coupled
with 30-40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support organized
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening as a weak mid-level
shortwave trough moves eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic. A
mix of multicells and marginal supercell structures is anticipated
along/south of the front, with scattered damaging winds the main
severe risk. Some hail could also occur with the strongest cores.
The Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been expanded westward
into parts of WV and vicinity, where a favorable
environment/convective evolution should occur, similar to locations
farther east in VA/MD along/south of ongoing precipitation.

...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...
A closed mid/upper-level low is not expected to move much over CA/NV
today. Enhanced east-southeasterly mid-level flow and modest
large-scale ascent to the north of this cyclone will likely support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across parts of OR/ID and western MT. Cool temperatures
aloft and adequate low-level moisture should support at least weak
instability as filtered daytime heating occurs. As low-level lapse
rates steepen with the well-mixed boundary layer, isolated severe
gusts appear possible with the high-based convection that develops
and spreads west-northwestward through the afternoon/evening. Some
gusts may reach up to 70-75 mph on a localized basis, but confidence
in a more focused corridor of severe winds remains too low to
include greater probabilities at this time. Isolated hail may also
occur.

...Coastal Texas to the ArklaTex...
An expansive MCS has moved offshore from coastal TX into the western
Gulf late this morning. A leading MCS/outflow is also present across
parts of southern/central LA. Current expectations are for limited redevelopment and severe risk through the period in the wake of this
ongoing activity across coastal TX/southern LA. However, there may
be an opportunity for modest destabilization near an MCV across the
ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon. Favorable/veering wind profiles
with height through mid levels and related deep-layer shear (see
recent VWPs from KSHV) would conditionally support organized
thunderstorms this afternoon, assuming sufficient instability can
develop amid widespread cloud cover. Have opted to add a focused
Marginal Risk across portions of the ArkLaTex and vicinity for this
potential, with both occasional damaging winds and a tornado or two
possible with the stronger cells that develop.

...Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes...
Modest north-northwesterly mid-level flow should exist today across
the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. With continued daytime
heating, moderate instability should develop along/south of a weak
surface front. Thunderstorms that initiate along/near the front this
afternoon could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging
winds, particularly across parts of WI where the best convective
signal exists in various short-term model guidance. However, overall
convective coverage is uncertain, as large-scale ascent should
remain fairly weak.

...Southern High Plains...
Cool temperatures aloft in association with a weak mid-level trough
over the southern High Plains should aid at least weak
destabilization this afternoon across parts of northwest TX into the
TX Panhandle and far western OK. While low-level moisture will
remain fairly muted and deep-layer shear rather modest, a few
stronger thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail/gusty
winds and perhaps a landspout may occur.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/27/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 271952
SWODY1
SPC AC 271951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Strong to
severe gusts capable of producing wind damage should be the primary
hazard, but isolated hail may also occur.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track (please
see MCD 876 for short-term severe trends in the Mid-Atlantic
region). The primary change to the outlook was to drop severe wind
and hail probabilities across the TX Panhandle. Here, convection has
failed to deepen, with widespread cloud cover becoming more
prevalent during the diurnal heating maximum. It is unclear if cells
can congeal into larger storm cores capable of producing severe wind
and hail. However, enough overlapping vertical oriented low-level
vorticity and 0-3 km CAPE exists to support a landspout, so 2
percent tornado probabilities have been maintained given the
presence of convective updrafts.

..Squitieri.. 05/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026/

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
30-40 kt of mid-level westerly flow will be present today across
parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic, sandwiched between an upper
trough over Ontario/Quebec and a mid-level anticyclone centered over
the western Atlantic. A west-east oriented front, modulated by
ongoing convection, will serve as a focus and northern limit for
severe potential. Latest surface observations show a rather moist
low-level airmass present along/south of this boundary (also
reference the 12Z observed soundings from IAD/RNK), with surface
dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s. Lapse rates aloft are
expected to remain poor, and persistent cloud cover will slow
daytime heating.

Still, weak to moderate instability (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) coupled
with 30-40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support organized
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening as a weak mid-level
shortwave trough moves eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic. A
mix of multicells and marginal supercell structures is anticipated
along/south of the front, with scattered damaging winds the main
severe risk. Some hail could also occur with the strongest cores.
The Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been expanded westward
into parts of WV and vicinity, where a favorable
environment/convective evolution should occur, similar to locations
farther east in VA/MD along/south of ongoing precipitation.

...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...
A closed mid/upper-level low is not expected to move much over CA/NV
today. Enhanced east-southeasterly mid-level flow and modest
large-scale ascent to the north of this cyclone will likely support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across parts of OR/ID and western MT. Cool temperatures
aloft and adequate low-level moisture should support at least weak
instability as filtered daytime heating occurs. As low-level lapse
rates steepen with the well-mixed boundary layer, isolated severe
gusts appear possible with the high-based convection that develops
and spreads west-northwestward through the afternoon/evening. Some
gusts may reach up to 70-75 mph on a localized basis, but confidence
in a more focused corridor of severe winds remains too low to
include greater probabilities at this time. Isolated hail may also
occur.

...Coastal Texas to the ArklaTex...
An expansive MCS has moved offshore from coastal TX into the western
Gulf late this morning. A leading MCS/outflow is also present across
parts of southern/central LA. Current expectations are for limited redevelopment and severe risk through the period in the wake of this
ongoing activity across coastal TX/southern LA. However, there may
be an opportunity for modest destabilization near an MCV across the
ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon. Favorable/veering wind profiles
with height through mid levels and related deep-layer shear (see
recent VWPs from KSHV) would conditionally support organized
thunderstorms this afternoon, assuming sufficient instability can
develop amid widespread cloud cover. Have opted to add a focused
Marginal Risk across portions of the ArkLaTex and vicinity for this
potential, with both occasional damaging winds and a tornado or two
possible with the stronger cells that develop.

...Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes...
Modest north-northwesterly mid-level flow should exist today across
the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. With continued daytime
heating, moderate instability should develop along/south of a weak
surface front. Thunderstorms that initiate along/near the front this
afternoon could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging
winds, particularly across parts of WI where the best convective
signal exists in various short-term model guidance. However, overall
convective coverage is uncertain, as large-scale ascent should
remain fairly weak.

...Southern High Plains...
Cool temperatures aloft in association with a weak mid-level trough
over the southern High Plains should aid at least weak
destabilization this afternoon across parts of northwest TX into the
TX Panhandle and far western OK. While low-level moisture will
remain fairly muted and deep-layer shear rather modest, a few
stronger thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail/gusty
winds and perhaps a landspout may occur.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 280057
SWODY1
SPC AC 280056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.
Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in central Wisconsin
and in parts of the Northwest.

...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving
southeastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front
is advancing southward across the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints are in
the upper 60s to lower 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range from eastern Kentucky eastward into southern Virginia and
across much of North Carolina. Within this area, scattered
thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat are ongoing. Forecast
soundings in the Mid-Atlantic early this evening have moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates. This suggests the
potential for severe wind gusts will continue for a couple more
hours with the more organized clusters.

...Central Wisconsin...
At the surface, a pocket of moisture and instability is located over
central Wisconsin early this evening, where the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability
max have 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and sufficient deep-layer
shear for a marginal severe threat. Isolated severe gusts and hail
will be possible for another hour or so.

...Northwest...
At mid-levels, a low is evident on water vapor imagery over central
California, and flow is from the southeast and east over much of the northwestern U.S. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of a band of
strong large-scale ascent from far northern California into
south-central Oregon. The environment is characterized by moderate
deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates, suggesting a threat for
isolated severe wind gusts will continue. Additional storms are
ongoing near a pocket of moderate instability in northern Idaho and
western Montana, where a few severe wind gusts will also be
possible.

..Broyles.. 05/28/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 280559
SWODY1
SPC AC 280558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts, large hail and an isolated
tornado threat are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest
this afternoon and evening.

...Pacific Northwest...
An upper-level low will remain over central California today. On the
northern periphery of the system, bands of large-scale ascent will
move westward across the Pacific Northwest, providing support for
thunderstorm development. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northwestward from eastern Oregon into southern Washington. A
surface trough will extend southward from the low into north-central
and west-central Oregon. Thunderstorms are forecast to first develop
across southern Oregon around midday, with convective coverage
gradually increasing over much of Oregon during the afternoon. A
larger-scale line segment is expected to organize and move
northwestward across Oregon late this afternoon and into southern
Washington early this evening.

As surface temperatures warm today, instability will increase along
the surface trough with MLCAPE expected to peak in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. The instability combined with 30 to 40 knots of
mid-level east-southeasterly flow, along with low to mid-level lapse
rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range, will support severe thunderstorm
development. This environment will be favorable for severe wind
gusts and isolated large hail within the stronger parts of an
extensive line segment. Near the surface trough, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 250
m2/s2 range by late afternoon, which could also support an isolated
tornado threat. Any tornado threat would mainly be associated with
rotating elements embedded in the line. As the line moves
north-northwestward and expands, a severe threat is expected to move
into southern Washington by early evening. A marginal severe threat
could impact parts of central and northern Washington later in the
evening.

...East-central Colorado...
A mid-level trough will move northward across the central Plains
today. At the surface, upslope east-southeasterly flow will be in
place across eastern Colorado. Along the Front Range, the Denver
Cyclone is expected to develop by afternoon. Topographic lift and
increasing low-level convergence will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the Palmer Divide northward into
north-central Colorado. Forecast soundings along this corridor by
late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This should support a hail
threat with the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/28/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 281254
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN IDAHO
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over western Idaho and
east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon. Severe gusts (60-85
mph), large hail, and perhaps a tornado are the forecast hazards
this afternoon through the late evening.

...Columbia Basin vicinity into ID/northern NV...
A mid- to upper-level low over the Sierra Nevada will move little
during the period. Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a
disturbance over NV will move north and northwestward through
eastern NV into eastern OR by early evening. In the low levels, an
area of low pressure is forecast to develop by late afternoon and
migrate from the ID/OR border into the Columbia Basin.

A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates arc around the northern
periphery of the western U.S. low and extend from the Snake Valley
westward into OR/WA. As heating of a seasonably moist airmass
occurs, initial thunderstorm activity will gradually shift from
south to north from northern NV/southern ID and southern OR. Model
forecast soundings show steep low to mid tropospheric lapse rates
favorable for evaporative cooling and the development of strong to
severe downdrafts. Slightly greater buoyancy is shown in model
guidance farther north in northern OR into western ID (1500 J/kg
MLCAPE). As storms move into this region during the late afternoon
to evening timeframe, it is possible a more extensive threat for
severe gusts develops. Regardless, severe outflow both with the
stronger cores and linearly oriented clusters appear to be the main
hazard. Large hail may accompany the stronger cells. A continued
threat for scattered severe gusts may occur into the late evening as
this activity shifts northward into interior portions of WA.

...East-central Colorado...
A mid-level trough will move northward across the central Plains
today. At the surface, upslope east-southeasterly flow will be in
place across eastern Colorado. Along the Front Range, the Denver
cyclone is expected to develop by afternoon. Topographic lift and
increasing low-level convergence will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the Palmer Divide northward into
north-central Colorado. Forecast soundings along this corridor by
late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This should support a hail
threat with the stronger cells.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/28/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 281609
SWODY1
SPC AC 281608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WESTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON/OREGON....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening over western Idaho and east of the Cascades in Washington
and Oregon, capable of damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a
tornado.

...WA/OR/ID...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over central CA, with
a strong shortwave trough rotating around the low over central NV.
This feature is forecast to move into ID/OR later today, with an
associated 40-50 knot mid level jet affecting the area. Strong
heating, dewpoints in the upper 40s-lower 50s, and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will lead to moderate CAPE values over much of
western ID into central WA/OR, setting the stage for afternoon
thunderstorms. Activity is expected to first develop across
southwest ID/southern OR, where sufficient vertical shear would
support supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Morning CAM guidance suggests activity will organize into
multiple clusters by evening, tracking northwestward across the
Columbia Basin into western/central WA. These storms would continue
to pose a damaging wind threat.

...CO...
Strong heating and sufficient low-level moisture will likely result
in widely scattered thunderstorms in the foothills of the Front
Range this afternoon. The strongest cells could produce hail.

...KS...
A remnant weak vorticity max is tracking northward near the OK/KS
border. Southeasterly low-level winds to the north of the vort max
may result in sufficient shear for weak rotation in a few storms
later today. While a brief spin-up over north-central KS cannot be
ruled out, the overall threat appears too weak for outlook
probabilities today.

..Hart/Lyons.. 05/28/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 282001
SWODY1
SPC AC 282000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening over western Idaho and east of the Cascades in Washington
and Oregon, capable of damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a
tornado.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 05/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026/

...WA/OR/ID...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over central CA, with
a strong shortwave trough rotating around the low over central NV.
This feature is forecast to move into ID/OR later today, with an
associated 40-50 knot mid level jet affecting the area. Strong
heating, dewpoints in the upper 40s-lower 50s, and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will lead to moderate CAPE values over much of
western ID into central WA/OR, setting the stage for afternoon
thunderstorms. Activity is expected to first develop across
southwest ID/southern OR, where sufficient vertical shear would
support supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Morning CAM guidance suggests activity will organize into
multiple clusters by evening, tracking northwestward across the
Columbia Basin into western/central WA. These storms would continue
to pose a damaging wind threat.

...CO...
Strong heating and sufficient low-level moisture will likely result
in widely scattered thunderstorms in the foothills of the Front
Range this afternoon. The strongest cells could produce hail.

...KS...
A remnant weak vorticity max is tracking northward near the OK/KS
border. Southeasterly low-level winds to the north of the vort max
may result in sufficient shear for weak rotation in a few storms
later today. While a brief spin-up over north-central KS cannot be
ruled out, the overall threat appears too weak for outlook
probabilities today.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 290056
SWODY1
SPC AC 290054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening east of
the Cascades in Washington and Oregon into western Idaho and
Montana. The primary hazards will be large hail and scattered severe
wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
As of 01 UTC, scattered to widespread thunderstorms continue to
develop ahead of an inverted trough axis from central OR (where a
more focused vorticity maximum is noted in GOES imagery) into
north-central MT. More isolated and short-lived convection continues
to develop within a weak up-slope flow regime along the CO front
range. While the potential for severe convection should quickly wane
after 03 UTC across the central High Plains, a severe hail and wind
threat will persist through late evening across the Pacific
Northwest.

...Pacific Northwest...
Regional radar depicts a myriad of convective modes ranging from
broken bands across central OR to splitting supercells across
eastern WA, ID, and northwest MT. This activity will continue to
spread northwestward as the inverted mid-level trough shifts west
towards the Pacific Northwest coast through tonight. A combination
of surface dewpoints in the 50s and cool mid-level temperatures
(associated with the mid-level trough axis) continue to support
MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. This buoyancy axis
should spread northwest in tandem with ongoing storms and help
maintain some degree of intensity over the next several hours.

Per regional VWP observations, mid-level winds across WA/ID remain
near 40-50 knots with decreasing magnitudes with northward extent
into eastern WA and northern ID. Despite the weaker deep-layer wind
shear, dewpoint depressions on the order of 25-30 F hint that a
deeply-mixed boundary layer remains in place downstream of
approaching storms. The onset of nocturnal cooling should be too shallow/insufficient to offset downdraft accelerations through the
lowest 1-2 km as convection spreads northwest and cold pools begin
to amalgamate. Recent CAM guidance shows fairly strong agreement in
a substantial wind threat spreading north/northwestward across
eastern WA and northern ID later this evening. Consequently, 15%
wind and the intensity level 1 contour have been expanded to account
for this potential.

...Colorado...
Convection across the CO Front Range has been fairly transient and
tied to the terrain over the past couple of hours, largely due to
the weak up-slope flow regime. However, latest GOES imagery
continues to show deep cumulus development in proximity to the
Denver area, and recent RAP mesoanalysis show sufficient deep-layer
wind shear for at least transient organized convection capable of a
brief large hail threat. This environment, and the overall severe
threat, should wane through 03 UTC.

..Moore.. 05/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 290555
SWODY1
SPC AC 290553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms
are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah,
and the northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low over central
CA with a subtropic jet emanating out of Baja CA into the southern
Rockies. Over the next 24 hours both of these features will migrate east/northeast into the central and southern High Plains. Despite
some weakening of the upper wave, 25-35 knot mid-level flow will
overspread the central and southern High Plains where low-level
moisture is gradually increasing within a weak east/southeasterly
flow regime. The combination of modest broad-scale ascent and
strengthening deep-layer shear atop a moistening low-level air mass
should support the potential for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms during and after peak heating from southern TX
northward across the southern Plains and into parts of the central
High Plains.

Elsewhere, orographic ascent within the northern Rockies will
support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms,
including a few severe storms. A migratory upper trough over the
central CONUS will continue to support scattered, but weak,
thunderstorms across the OH Valley and Southeast states this
afternoon.

...Southern Plains and central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon across western
TX into eastern CO along a modestly deepening lee surface trough
where ascent should be focused and mixed-layer inhibition minimized.
Slightly stronger synoptic ascent across the southern High Plains
should promote higher thunderstorm coverage across western TX/TX
Panhandle region with more isolated coverage with northward extent.
15% wind probabilities were introduced across portions of western TX
to reflect the potential for higher storm coverage.

Across both the southern and central High Plains warm low-level
conditions/deep boundary-layer mixing combined with weak flow within
the lowest 1-3 km will likely promote outflow dominant storms with
an attendant threat for severe gusts. Stronger mid-level flow across
western TX may support a more prolonged severe threat, and possibly
a few transient supercells capable of large hail and/or organized
bands capable of gusts upwards of 75 mph. Through the late evening,
isentropic ascent near the terminus of the nocturnal jet may support
elevated, loosely organized convection across portions of northwest
OK and western KS.

...Northern Rockies/Montana...
Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID
and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward
advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level
moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely
promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly
into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early
evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible
with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the
Canadian border.

...Southern Utah...
5% wind probabilities were introduced across southern to southeast
UT where weak, high-based convection may support a few strong to
severe dry downbursts. Although latest CAM ensemble guidance depicts
scant buoyancy (MUCAPE between 100-250 J/kg) and very transient
convection, a very deep boundary layer (LCL values upwards of 3 km)
featuring 25-35 knot flow will likely promote sporadic strong to
severe wind gusts.

..Moore/Marsh.. 05/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 291242
SWODY1
SPC AC 291241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms
are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah,
and the northern Rockies.

...Southern Plains and central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low migrating eastward across
the Mojave Desert towards the southern Great Basin. A 90-kt 250-mb sub-tropical jet over Baja and Sonora Mexico will progress eastward
into the southern High Plains by this afternoon. The nose of this
speed max will overspread a moist sector east of a dryline where
severe thunderstorm development is forecast later this
afternoon/evening. Farther north, a modestly deepening lee trough
will focus storm initiation over the central High Plains.

Despite some mid and high-level clouds, model guidance shows strong
heating this afternoon and erosion of appreciable convective
inhibition by mid afternoon. A mid-level disturbance implied in
satellite imagery this morning over central NM will move northeast
into western KS and the TX Panhandle by early evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the dryline/lee trough.
Forecast hodographs show some elongation across west TX due to the
nose the upper speed max. Have included 15-percent hail
probabilities where supercell development appears greatest [due in
part to more favorable hodographs and within the northern rim of
richer moisture sampled by the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob (17.3 g/kg
mean mixing ratio)]. Large hail (1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter)
will be possible with the supercells. Severe gusts are forecast to
become more prevalent during the evening as mergers and outflow
consolidate into a few linear clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph
are possible as this activity shifts eastward into the Low Rolling
Plains and southwest OK during the evening.

Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the
nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection
across portions of northwest OK and western KS. Isolated hail/wind
may accompany the stronger storms over the central High Plains into
central OK where storm coverage will probably remain isolated.

...Northern Rockies/Montana...
Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID
and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward
advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level
moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely
promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly
into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early
evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible
with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the
Canadian border.

...Southern Utah...
A few high-based storms developing within a deeply mixed boundary
layer (inverted-V profile) may yield an isolated risk for severe
gusts (60-70 mph).

..Smith/Kerr.. 05/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 291612
SWODY1
SPC AC 291610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas/Oklahoma. More isolated severe
thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains,
southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.

...Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large
scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK.
Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist
and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the
clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late
afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis
mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in
this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a
damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal
and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into
greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may
increase as this happens.

...Northeast CO/Northwest KS...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast
CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early
evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may
result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds,
or perhaps a tornado.

...MT...
A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and
central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian
border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed
boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 291958
SWODY1
SPC AC 291956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TEXAS
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are still expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas into northern Oklahoma. More
isolated severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the
central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The
biggest change made to the outlook was to extend 15 percent wind and
hail probabilities (hence the Slight risk) farther east into OK.
Though speed and directional shear are not expected to be overly
abundant, some hodograph curvature and elongation, amid 2500-3000
J/kg MLCAPE will support multicells and transient supercells capable
of producing severe wind and hail (with a few stones potentially
exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Otherwise, more minor adjustments
were made to thunder and severe probabilities to account for
observations and the latest guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 05/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026/

...Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large
scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK.
Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist
and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the
clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late
afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis
mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in
this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a
damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal
and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into
greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may
increase as this happens.

...Northeast CO/Northwest KS...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast
CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early
evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may
result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds,
or perhaps a tornado.

...MT...
A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and
central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian
border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed
boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 300101
SWODY1
SPC AC 300059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large
hail and severe winds will linger across the central and southern
Plains through the late evening hours before diminishing by early
morning. More isolated severe thunderstorms will also remain
possible across portion of north-central Montana through late
evening.

...Synopsis...
Regional radar mosaics show widely scattered convection from
northwest KS into north-central OK and across portions of western
Texas. Based on latest GOES imagery and recent RAP upper-air
analyses, modest diffluence aloft associated with the left-exit
region of a subtropical jet resides across northern OK/KS and should
continue to promote thunderstorm development across this region over
the next several hours. Further northwest across Montana, isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms continue to percolate within the
higher terrain with little forward motion owing to weak mid-level
winds. Across both regions, thunderstorms will likely persist into
the late evening hours with some threat for severe gusts and perhaps
sporadic large hail.

...Kansas/northern Oklahoma...
New convection continues to develop across northwest to
south-central KS within the left-exit region of the upper jet and
within a zone of modest isentropic ascent focused near 850 mb.
Through the evening, additional thunderstorm development appears
likely as the nocturnal low-level jet gradually strengthens.
However, regional VWPs depict diminishing mid-level flow with
northward extent across KS, and dewpoint depressions on the order of
20-30 F coupled with weak low-level winds are favoring outflow
dominant convection with transient organization. Consequently, the
potential for a prolonged or intense severe threat across any one
corridor of the region appears limited - especially heading into the
late evening hours as nocturnal cooling/stabilization becomes more
pronounced. Nonetheless, severe gusts, and perhaps very sporadic
large hail, will remain possible with this activity for the next
several hours as it spreads east/northeast. 5% hail/wind
probabilities were expanded to account for this potential through
04-06 UTC.

...Western Texas...
Thunderstorm coverage has failed to materialize as expected thus far
across much of western TX, though a few thunderstorm clusters are
noted near the Amarillo, TX area, as is percolating convection near
Fort Stockton, TX. Given the dearth of more widespread convection -
likely owing to very weak forcing for ascent and the stabilizing
influence of residual cloud cover - confidence in the severe threat
through late evening is low. However, 00 UTC RAOBs and latest RAP
mesoanalysis estimates continue to show an environment supportive of
organized convection, and recent high-res guidance hints at further
development between the I-10 and I-20 corridors through roughly 04
UTC. The Slight risk has been bifurcated to highlight these two
corridors downstream of ongoing and/or developing intense
convection.

...Montana...
Convection continues to percolated across north-central MT with MRMS
imagery showing occasional periods of intensification to severe
limits with the deeper, more robust convective cores. Weak flow
below 5 km AGL is likely contributing to the slow storm motions and
poor organization, but as hinted by recent trends, convection that
can become sufficiently deep may be influenced by stronger flow
above 5 km and pose a brief threat for large hail and severe winds.
In general, this threat should wane through the late evening hours.

..Moore.. 05/30/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 300551
SWODY1
SPC AC 300549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
this afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains
into central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Isolated severe
gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains,
and across parts of western Texas.

...Synopsis...
Latest GOES imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level low over southern
UT with a modest (25-35 knot) subtropical jet emanating from
northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Several shortwave
vorticity maximum are noted along the MS River Valley and across the
Southeast within a broad upper-level deformation zone. Over the next
12-24 hours, the low over southern UT will drift northeast, likely overspreading the central High Plains by late afternoon/early
evening. As this occurs, more focused surface pressure falls and lee
cyclone development will become apparent across eastern WY/CO and
into portions of western KS/OK and the TX Panhandle.

00 UTC RAOBs across the central to southern Rockies sampled very
steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rates, which should advect eastward in the
wake of ongoing convection through this afternoon given the
southwesterly mid-level flow regime. Additionally, late-evening
surface observations across the central CONUS reveal an expansive
reservoir of rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to mid 70s spanning from central OK into the Southeast. This
moisture will advect west/northwest through the morning and
afternoon hours in response to the surface pressure
falls/cyclogenesis over the central High Plains.

The combination of destabilizing thermal profiles aloft and
increasing low-level moisture content will promote a broad swath of
moderate to very high buoyancy from the central High Plains
southward into the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development within
this unstable air mass appears likely as ascent increases through
the day along the surface trough/sharpening dryline.

...Central High Plains...
35-45 knot southerly mid-level flow across the central High Plains
will yield elongated hodographs with deep-layer shear vectors
oriented off the dryline/surface trough. This will result in
high-based supercell development initially across northeast
CO/western NE into western SD with an attendant threat for large
hail and strong outflow winds. With time, upscale growth is
anticipated as convection spreads north/northeast across NE and SD
with an increasing threat for severe winds.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Most guidance depicts a sharpening dryline across western/central
KS, western OK, and into western TX through the afternoon hours.
More focused forcing for ascent across central KS to northern OK
ahead of a subtle low-amplitude upper wave will likely favor
scattered thunderstorm coverage with more isolated thunderstorms
likely with southward extent into western TX. Although ample
buoyancy will be in place (MLCAPE values between 3500-4500 J/kg),
the primary limiting factor across the central/southern Plains will
be modest deep-layer wind shear. Consensus among forecast guidance
suggests effective bulk shear values on the order of 25-35 knots are
likely, which will promote a combination of supercells and
multicells. However, the steep lapse-rate environment coupled with
sufficient deep-layer wind shear will support the potential for
large hail along with severe wind gusts.

A focused corridor for a tornado threat may emerge across northern
OK to central KS where southeasterly low-level flow should support
effective SRH on the order of 150-200 m2/s2. However, the tornado
threat will likely be highly conditional on achieving a sustained
supercell with balanced inflow/outflow. Given the increased
convective signal across northern OK/KS, 15% hail/wind
probabilities, as well as 2% tornado probabilities, have been
introduced.

...Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas...
A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established
across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely within this corridor given MUCAPE values
upwards of 3000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer wind shear should be
in place for a few organized cells capable of large hail and perhaps strong/severe downburst winds.

..Moore/Marsh.. 05/30/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 301227
SWODY1
SPC AC 301225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms
will potentially be capable of large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...NE Panhandle into the northern High Plains...
A mid-level trough along the UT/CO border will migrate slowly
northeast with a belt of 20-40 kt cyclonic 500-mb flow wrapping
cyclonically through the base of the trough into the NE Panhandle
and Black Hills. In the low levels, an elongated area of surface
low pressure/lee trough will focus thunderstorm development later
this afternoon/evening. The western part of a moisture plume
extending from the southern Great Plains northward into western
NE/SD will feature 50s to lower 60 F dewpoints. Strong heating and
large-scale ascent will combine to weaken the capping inversion and
result in widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late
afternoon. Slightly stronger deep-layer shear across NE will favor
a mix of supercells and multicells with the stronger storms. Large
hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms through the mid evening as this activity probably
grows upscale into a linear cluster or two.

...NE-KS and into OK-TX...
Models continue to show a sharp dryline across western/central
KS, western OK, and into west TX by late afternoon. Main lobe of
forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough will likely
glance the northwestern quadrant of KS into NE. Surface
mesoanalysis this morning shows a low over northeast CO near AKO and
an effective outflow boundary draped east along I-70 in
north-central KS. North of the boundary, easterly surface winds
will contribute to maintaining moist upslope flow.

Ample heating in wake of early morning convection and an
increasingly rich moisture plume arcing from north-central OK into
southwest NE, will favor a very unstable airmass developing by
mid-late afternoon (3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE). Some forecast
uncertainty remains regarding low-level hodographs due to model
spread (e.g., RAP and HRRR time-lagged depictions favoring more
supercells vs. NAM with less favorable hodographs and indicative of
more multicellular structures). Furthermore, effective shear is
forecast to be only 25-35 knots and will likely straddle the multicell-supercell spectrum. Where slightly stronger shear and
some enlargement of clockwise-curved hodographs are currently
expected, it is where supercells are more probable and the risk for
large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are increasingly
possible. Have opted to include a 5-percent tornado risk over
north-central KS into southwest NE, with this region being located
north of this morning's west-east boundary and in closer proximity
to the upper wave. Farther south, lower storm coverage (isolated)
is expected into OK and more sparse and widely spaced activity
farther south along the dryline in parts of west TX. Large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards with these storms.

...Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas...
A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established
across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely within this corridor. Models show large
SBCAPE (3000 J/kg) and adequate deep-layer shear for some storm
organization. A few stronger cells may be capable of large hail and
perhaps strong/severe wind gusts.

..Smith/Kerr.. 05/30/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 301622
SWODY1
SPC AC 301620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes.

...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.

Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.

..Hart/Weinman.. 05/30/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 301957
SWODY1
SPC AC 301956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75
mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly
minor changes made to general thunderstorm and severe hazards
probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance
consensus. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for
initially discrete storms, accompanied by a severe hail/isolated
tornado threat to grow upscale into one or more MCSs across southern
NE into KS this afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance and
observations continue to show 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the
18Z DDC observed sounding) and forecast 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE via
deep-wide buoyancy profiles (per latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings)
centered over central KS. As such, swaths of severe winds (with some
gusts potentially well exceeding 75 mph) are expected before the
MCSs propagate into an increasingly stable airmass later this
evening.

..Squitieri.. 05/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/

...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.

Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 310100
SWODY1
SPC AC 310058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will continue this evening and parts
of the overnight, mainly within the central Plains.

...Synopsis...
An arcing zone of convection is ongoing across parts of Nebraska
into central Kansas. The strongest forcing for ascent will be
present in Nebraska as the shortwave trough pivots north through the
evening. This activity will still be capable of large hail, severe
winds, and a couple of tornadoes as the low-level jet modestly
strengthens into the evening. Additional storms will continue in
central Kansas. The 00Z observed TOP sounding showed steep mid-level
lapse rates, but some capping at low levels. While activity will
tend to become elevated into the evening, strong to severe/damaging
winds will remain possible farther east. Large hail potential will
be somewhat mitigated be less favorable storm modes. Within the
southern Plains, an isolated storm is possible on the dryline in the
next couple of hours, but confidence in this scenario is low as
forcing for ascent is weak and low-level stability will increase
with time.

..Wendt.. 05/31/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 310605
SWODY1
SPC AC 310603

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the
central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level
heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are
expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will
be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley.

...Kansas/Missouri...
Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri
Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an
outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg).
Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt
of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development
along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising
mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could
form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the
early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for
supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and
perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow
boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak upper-level flow.

Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak
low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of
northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass
present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong
enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop
south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of
strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat
with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development
expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will
be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical
Slight would be warranted.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least
isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater
storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope
flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and
Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising
during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place
(2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however.
Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large
hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy.

...Nebraska into the Dakotas...
Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough
will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will
not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered
to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps
some hail.

..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 311222
SWODY1
SPC AC 311220

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible this evening from eastern Kansas
into western Missouri.

...KS/MO...
Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft extends from the Four
Corners region into the Midwest today. Water vapor imagery suggests
several weak shortwave troughs embedded in the flow to aid in
large-scale ascent and the potential for thunderstorm development
later today. Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over eastern
KS/western MO. These storms will reinforce a surface boundary
across southeast KS/southwest MO. The boundary will lift northward
this afternoon with the potential for isolated thunderstorms along
and south of it. Very warm and humid conditions will prevail across
southeast KS/southern MO with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, along
with steep low and mid-level lapse rates.

While these early storms will pose an isolated severe threat, more
organized convection is forecast to form by early evening over
eastern KS and track along the boundary into MO. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient vertical shear to support supercells and bowing
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds, or even a
tornado. A small area of SLGT risk has been added to address this
scenario.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail will be possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of
AR, and southwest TX. Isolated occurrences of large hail are also
possible today from parts of the Dakotas into NE/IA.

..Hart/Kerr.. 05/31/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 311628
SWODY1
SPC AC 311626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible
this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and
central Missouri.

...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight...
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern
Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central
Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection
persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast,
and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some
potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z
soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther
southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into
the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual
modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast
edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated
thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will
become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection
zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into
tonight.

...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening...
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern
NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded
shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear
will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow
will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker
farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be
stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge
from the west.

...West TX this afternoon/evening...
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline
later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the
mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent
storm clusters.

..Thompson/Weinman.. 05/31/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 311947
SWODY1
SPC AC 311945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain
possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western
and central Missouri.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major
changes or additions made to the outlook.

..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/

...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight...
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern
Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central
Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection
persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast,
and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some
potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z
soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther
southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into
the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual
modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast
edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated
thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will
become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection
zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into
tonight.

...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening...
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern
NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded
shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear
will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow
will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker
farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be
stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge
from the west.

...West TX this afternoon/evening...
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline
later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the
mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent
storm clusters.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 010115
SWODY1
SPC AC 010114

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms remain possible this evening into parts of the
overnight in the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Flint Hills and
central Missouri. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado
or two are the expected risks.

...01Z Update...
Cumulus towers continue to develop along the I-80 corridor this
evening. Water vapor imagery shows a very subtle shortwave that may
allow a few storms to develop near the Missouri Valley. The Slight
risk has been expanded to account for this scenario. Farther south,
convective initiation is becoming more likely northeast of Wichita.
Large hail and severe winds are the main threats, but a tornado risk
will be present with storms that interact favorably with remnant
outflow in eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Additional severe storms
are ongoing near Sioux Falls. Large hail and a tornado risk (for the
next hour or two) are the main concerns along with isolated severe
gusts.

..Wendt.. 06/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 010605
SWODY1
SPC AC 010603

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northern Rockies will remain roughly in place
during the period. Moderate mid-level flow will extend into the
central Rockies. Rich moisture will be present from the Ozarks into
the Mid-South/Southeast.

...Colorado into western Nebraska and western Kansas...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected to persist across the central
Rockies along the southeastern flank of the upper low. This flow
will gradually diminish into southwest Kansas. With a surface low
developing in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa, moist upslope flow
will occur within the Front Range. Storms will initially develop
within the higher terrain and progress east. Storms near the surface
low will develop by late afternoon. Initial supercells can be
expected with a large to very-large hail risk. Hail around 2 inches
is more probable in northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska where upper-level flow will be stronger. A tornado or two will also be
possible with initial discrete storms given the backed surface winds
east of the Front Range. With time, upscale growth of activity can
be expected, particularly in Kansas where strong heating will
promote larger temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level
lapse rates. Where clustering can occur, a greater severe wind
threat will develop. Given the somewhat narrow corridor of moderate
to strong buoyancy and enough deep-layer shear that may limit
duration of linear organization, confidence is low in placement of
greater wind probabilities.

...Mid-South...
Convection that is currently ongoing in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri is expected to track south and east with time. Ahead of
this activity, a reservoir of 70+ F dewpoints will exist across the
Mid-South into parts of the Southeast. Depending on the timing of
the convection, some strengthening of this activity can be expected
into the afternoon. Mid-level flow across the region will not be
overly strong, but around 30 kt of effective shear appears
reasonable. Wind probabilities were increased within the Mid-South
to account for the anticipated MCS. There still remains some
question over the timing/placement of convection early this morning. Adjustments to the Slight risk may be needed depending on
observational trends.

...Arkansas...
Model trends show potential for convection to develop along outflow
and move into strong/extreme buoyancy in Arkansas. As in the
Mid-South, timing of when this occur will play a role in the
intensity of the activity, especially given the weaker shear with
southwestward extent. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are
possible with the strongest activity.

...Northern Plains...
Stronger mid-level flow around the upper low will be present in this
region. Moisture/buoyancy will be more limited, however. Cold
temperatures aloft will promote an isolated hail risk with storms
that develop in the surface trough.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 011213
SWODY1
SPC AC 011211

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast States...
An occasionally severe MCS is ongoing this morning south of STL.
This activity may persist through much of the day, tracking
southeastward along the low-level moisture/instability gradient into
western KY/middle TN and eventually north GA. Moderate CAPE values,
30+ knots of mid-level steering flow, and mesoscale organization of
the MCS will pose a risk of strong/damaging winds along this
corridor.

Along the western flank of this MCS, a hot/humid air mass will
develop from AR into parts of TN/MS/AL with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values
approaching 4000 J/kg. The consensus of model guidance suggests
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon, with outflows
congealing and spreading south/southwestward though a steep
lapse-rate environment. The result will be the potential for rather
widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail. These storms may spread as far south as central MS/AL
during the evening before weakening.

...High Plains...
Easterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
eastern CO/western KS. This will maintain an influx of moisture and
aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills
of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will
pose a risk of supercells capable of large/very large hail. As the
storms move/develop eastward into western KS this evening, supercell
structures may persist, but upscale growth into bowing clusters is
also expected. This will increase the risk of severe wind gusts as
well. The easterly low-level jet will also strengthen considerably
this evening across the region, enhancing low-level shear and
helicity, but in a region with high LCLs and dewpoints only around
50F.

Widely scattered severe storms are also expected to develop over
southeast WY, spreading eastward into the NE panhandle and southwest
SD with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 011631
SWODY1
SPC AC 011629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.

Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.

The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.

...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.

Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.

..Mosier/Weinman.. 06/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 012002
SWODY1
SPC AC 012000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts are also
likely from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
relatively more organized cold-pool-driven MCS is continuing to
track south-southeastward across eastern MS into central AL, with a
history of damaging gusts. This MCS should continue to traverse a
diffuse buoyancy axis and produce additional damaging gusts through
the afternoon, though weakening should eventually occur as the MCS
propagates away from the relatively stronger deep-layer shear. Over
the next few hours, strong to severe thunderstorms currently over
southern MO should congeal into another cold-pool-driven MCS and
drift southward into strong buoyancy, characterized by over 4000
J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is rather poor across the mid-MS
Valley. However, the strong to locally extreme buoyancy should
compensate to support multiple damaging gusts. The next cold-pool
driven MCS in the series should develop from ongoing severe hail
producing supercells across the central High Plains, which are
poised to grow upscale later this evening. Once an MCS develops, a
swath of severe gusts is likely, especially across western into
central KS.

..Squitieri.. 06/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/

...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.

Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.

The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.

...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.

Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 020103
SWODY1
SPC AC 020101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts are also possible
within the Ozarks and portions of the Mid-South.

...01Z Update...
Notable upper-level low is promote severe convection within the
Central High Plains this evening. This activity with continue for a
few more hours. The most organized convection has become more linear
in southwestern Kansas. This will be the focal point for severe wind
gusts this evening/overnight. Some of this risk may eventually
spread in to northern Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms
are also ongoing in Arkansas/northern Mississippi. These storms will
be capable of large hail and damaging winds over the next few hours.
The primary question remains how long the threat will continue. Some
models still hint at linear organization occurring later tonight,
but confidence is low as to where this will occur. Strongly forced
convection may produce severe gusts in parts of eastern
Montana/western North Dakota. A remaining pocket of enhanced shear
and buoyancy is evident near the SC/GA border. A subtle shortwave
may allow a cluster of storms to move south and east. Isolated
damaging winds would be possible with this activity.

..Wendt.. 06/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 020602
SWODY1
SPC AC 020600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in
parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.

...Synopsis...
The primary upper low will make little eastward progress today.
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across parts of the
western Dakotas. Mid-level winds will drop off fairly rapidly from
Colorado southward. Convective outflows will be present within the
central and southern Plains. To the east, a strong, amplified trough
will move through the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast.

...Eastern Wyoming into the Dakotas...
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across the region
through the day. A surface low will develop near the WY/SD/ND border
region by late afternoon. Storms will develop either within parts of
the higher terrain in Wyoming or along a dryline/weak surface trough
feature. Additional storms are possible along a southwest-northeast
cold front in western/central North Dakota. Upper 50s to perhaps low
60s F dewpoints are expected. Effective shear values of 45-50 kts
will promote supercell structures, particularly in western South Dakota/southwest North Dakota near the surface low. Large to
very-large hail and severe winds will be possible. A couple of
tornadoes are also possible with discrete storms near the surface
low. Should storms maintain a discrete mode into early evening, a
modest increase in the low-level jet will increase the tornado
potential.

...Central/southern High Plains...
Moisture return will occur in the wake of overnight convection. Low
to mid 50s F dewpoints into the Foothills/southern Rockies appears
plausible. Along the Front Range, mid-level winds will be weaker
than yesterday. The degree of surface heating will play a role in
storm coverage during the afternoon. At present, isolated storms
capable of marginal hail and isolated severe gusts are the most
likely scenario. Farther south, temperatures will be warmer and
dewpoints may be slightly greater as well. Despite the weaker shear,
scattered storms will develop in strong buoyancy and pose a risk of
severe wind gusts.

...Southeast Alabama/southern Georgia/Florida...
Rich surface moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will reside
south of a weak surface boundary. Mid-level flow will be at least
moderately strong with the approach of the trough. Given the
influence of outflow from the previous days convection as well as a
northerly component to the winds through the day, the northern
extent of the severe risk is uncertain. It is more probable that
stronger convection forms along the Gulf breeze front within the
Florida Panhandle and the sea breeze on the eastern coast. Coverage
in Alabama and Georgia may be rather isolated. Damaging wind gusts
are the main hazard as well as small hail. Poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit greater hail potential even with supercellular
modes possible in eastern Florida.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 021151
SWODY1
SPC AC 021149

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...
The upper low that has affected the western U.S. for the last
several days has lifted into Alberta, with broad 40-60 knot
southwesterly mid-level flow across much of the northern Plains. A
cold front currently extends from eastern WY into western ND, which
will provide the primary focus for thunderstorm development later
this afternoon. Forecast soundings across this area show strong
deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 2500
J/kg. This suggests the potential for several supercells storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Numerous thunderstorms over western KS this morning have overturned
most of this air mass, and will likely suppress strong storms
through the evening. However, ample moisture has surged westward
into the foothills of CO where isolated strong storms may occur.

...Southeast TX...
An outflow boundary associated with convective clusters over OK has
surged southward into the Red River valley. A hot and humid air
mass over southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southwest TX/Southeast NM...
Southeasterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
southwest TX and southeast NM, maintaining 50s dewpoints in the
region and encouraging thunderstorms later today over the terrain.
The storms that form will spread northeastward for a few hours,
posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...FL/GA...
An upper trough will track southward across the eastern states
today. A moist and moderately unstable airmass will develop over
much of FL and southern GA, with isolated afternoon thunderstorm
development expected. The strongest cells may produce
gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 021631
SWODY1
SPC AC 021630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold
front extending southward from this low across western ND and into
northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through
northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary
across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue
while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon,
additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front
from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.

Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal
character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some
severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a
bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is
some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central
ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level
southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is
expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs
that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by
high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures.
Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold
front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a
strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the
central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There
is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the
region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains
ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail
and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest
storms.

...Southeast into Central TX...
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with
convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the
Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL...
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will
augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence
and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across
the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of
producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms
and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the
resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 022002
SWODY1
SPC AC 022000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor changes were made with
this update. The primary addition was a CIG1 wind area over parts of western/central SD. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will
evolve off the Black Hills and grow upscale as they intercept a
diurnally destabilized air mass and gradually strengthening
low-level jet -- promoting some gusts upwards of 75 mph.

..Weinman.. 06/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026/

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold
front extending southward from this low across western ND and into
northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through
northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary
across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue
while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon,
additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front
from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.

Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal
character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some
severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a
bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is
some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central
ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level
southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is
expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs
that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by
high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures.
Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold
front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a
strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the
central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There
is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the
region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains
ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail
and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest
storms.

...Southeast into Central TX...
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with
convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the
Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL...
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will
augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence
and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across
the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of
producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms
and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the
resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 030105
SWODY1
SPC AC 030103

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
tornado or two are possible this evening primarily in parts of the
northern Plains.

...01Z Update...
The strongest storms this evening are ongoing in parts of the
Dakotas and far eastern Wyoming. The upper trough will continue to
provide forcing for ascent along with a modest increase in the
low-level jet. Storms have generally begun to grow upscale. Severe
wind gusts are likely the primary threat the remainder of the
evening. That being said, deep layer shear is strong enough to
support occasional supercell structures which would be capable of
large hail, potentially to around 2 inches. A tornado or two is
conditionally possible, but confidence is not overly high given the
amount of outflow and gradual increase in MLCIN anticipated.
Clusters of storms in the southern High Plains will remain capable
of isolated wind damage and hail. Some activity may be able to push
farther east this evening. Otherwise, isolated wind damage will be
possible for another hour or two with activity in Central Texas and
South Florida.

..Wendt.. 06/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 030557
SWODY1
SPC AC 030556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southeast New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
The upper low will move into the Canadian Prairie today. A modest
mid-level jet will overspread North Dakota into northern South
Dakota. A cold front will move south and east through the Dakotas. A
surface high in the Great Lakes region will promote moisture
advection into the High Plains.

...Northern Plains...
A modest low-level jet (45 kt at KLNX) is promoting a small cluster
of convection along the Nebraska/South Dakota border early this
morning. The duration of this activity is not certain, but it is
possible that it could last until daybreak when the low-level jet is
forecast to weaken. At a minimum, cloud cover from this activity may
delay heating in some areas. Models still bring low 60s F dewpoints
into South Dakota by the afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be
strongest in North Dakota where the upper low will be. Modest ascent
will still occur into South Dakota along the surface trough/front.
40-50 kt of shear will promote organized supercells, at least
initially. There does appear to be a small corridor where a discrete
mode could be maintained longer where the shear vectors will be more
orthogonal the surface trough. There, very-large hail would be more
probable. Overall, a transition to a linear mode is expected to
occur within a couple of hours of initiation as the front moves
southeast. Severe winds would become more likely as this occurs. The
tornado threat will be greatest with the initial discrete storms.
The low-level jet does modestly increase during the evening when a
linear mode should dominate. A QLCS circulation or two is possible,
but the wind threat should be the main concern.

...Central into southern Plains...
Weak convectively generated MCVs are apparent in water vapor imagery
in the Southwest. As these move slowly eastward into this
afternoon, perhaps congealing, they will interact with a surface
trough/stalled boundary in the High Plains. Deep-layer winds will
otherwise be weak, but the MCV may locally enhance shear. Low to mid
60s F dewpoints will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg despite fairly
modest mid-level lapse rates. The strongest storms will be capable
of isolated large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur
which would locally increase the threat for strong/severe winds.

...Southwest Texas...
Early morning convection appears possible within the region. The
spatial extent/intensity of this activity will play a large role in
whether stronger convection can develop later in the afternoon/early
evening. Should cloud cover/outflow influence be minimal, strong
heating southwest of the region along with moist influx from the
southeast will promote thunderstorms within the Davis Mountains/Big
Bend. Deep-layer flow will only be modest, but isolated large hail
and severe gusts would be possible.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 031153
SWODY1
SPC AC 031151

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southern New Mexico.

...Northern Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern Alberta,
with several shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow
over MT/WY/ID. At the surface, the primary cold front will move
eastward into the central Dakotas and northwest NE by afternoon,
providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.

A broad cluster of weakening thunderstorms is occurring this morning
near the NE/SD border. This activity has resulted in an outflow
boundary that will lift northward into SD this afternoon. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg are expected in the
region along/north of the outflow boundary, with forecast soundings
showing favorable deep-layer shear for supercell storms. These
storms will persist through the evening, affecting eastern SD,
southeast ND, and western MN. Large hail is the primary risk early,
with a transition to more linear structures during the evening and
an attendant damaging wind risk. Recent model guidance suggests a
notable low-level jet in this region during the late
afternoon/evening, supportive of some risk of maintaining discrete
modes and increasing the risk of a few tornadoes.

...Elsewhere...
Farther south, widely scattered strong storms are expected later
today across the central High Plains, and southwest TX/southern NM.
Locally damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 031618
SWODY1
SPC AC 031617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High
Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico.

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis place a wavy and diffuse cold front from
central Manitoba southwestward through central ND, western SD to a
low in the WY/NE/CO border intersection vicinity. A pair of weak
lows exist along this boundary as well, one over southwest SD and
the other across central ND. This cold front, as well as these
surface lows, will likely contribute to the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Additionally, early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low
over southern Saskatchewan, with a shortwave trough rotating through
its base over southeast MT/eastern WY. This shortwave likely has an
associated belt of stronger flow, but no upper-air data was
available to confirm its magnitude. Eastward progression of this
shortwave will result in increased large-scale ascent across the
frontal zone this afternoon, augmenting the more localized/mesoscale
ascent attendant to the surface features. This increased ascent will
occur within a diurnally destabilizing airmass where steep mid-level
lapse rates atop low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely result in 1500
to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also
expected to increase throughout the afternoon amid strengthening
mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave.

The resulting environment will support supercells capable of all
hazards, with the primary hazard predominantly dictated by storm
mode. Given the presence of the front, a linear mode will likely
dominate, with large to isolated very large hail as the primary risk
early in the convective cycle transitioning to damaging gusts
thereafter. Strengthening surface southerlies will contribute to
some elongation of the low-level hodograph, mostly from
central/eastern SD into far southeast ND. This area is also the most
likely to produce more discrete cells within the warm sector. As a
result, there appears to be a relative increase in the overall
tornado risk within this corridor.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region
this afternoon/evening, both within an arc through the northern and
eastern periphery of the MCV currently over northeast NM and the
northwestern TX Panhandle and along the lee troughing from eastern
CO into southern NM and Far West TX. For storms along the lee
trough, weak shear will limit storm organization, but high cloud
bases and steep low-level lapse rates could result in occasionally
strong downbursts. For storms north and east of the MCV, isolated
damaging gusts are the primary risk, although some hail could occur
over western KS where mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper
than areas farther south.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 032001
SWODY1
SPC AC 032000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High
Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico.

...Northern/central Plains...
Only minor changes to the outlook. Thunderstorm development is
underway from north central SD into central ND along a surface front/differential heating zone, and in advance of an embedded
mid-upper speed max. Surface temperatures of 75-80 F with dewpoints
of 58-64 F are driving MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, while deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially. Low-level shear and hodograph curvature will be large
enough for a few tornadoes with the initial supercells, along with
isolated very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter. Upscale
growth into line segments is expected by this evening, with an
attendant increase in the threat for severe outflow gusts, prior to
the storms moving east of the primary buoyancy corridor.

Farther south, vertical shear is weaker and storms will tend more
toward multicell clusters with some transient supercell structures
capable of producing sporadic downbursts and large hail. Other
storm clustering is expected toward southwest KS, to the immediate
east of an MCV.

..Thompson.. 06/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026/

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis place a wavy and diffuse cold front from
central Manitoba southwestward through central ND, western SD to a
low in the WY/NE/CO border intersection vicinity. A pair of weak
lows exist along this boundary as well, one over southwest SD and
the other across central ND. This cold front, as well as these
surface lows, will likely contribute to the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Additionally, early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low
over southern Saskatchewan, with a shortwave trough rotating through
its base over southeast MT/eastern WY. This shortwave likely has an
associated belt of stronger flow, but no upper-air data was
available to confirm its magnitude. Eastward progression of this
shortwave will result in increased large-scale ascent across the
frontal zone this afternoon, augmenting the more localized/mesoscale
ascent attendant to the surface features. This increased ascent will
occur within a diurnally destabilizing airmass where steep mid-level
lapse rates atop low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely result in 1500
to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also
expected to increase throughout the afternoon amid strengthening
mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave.

The resulting environment will support supercells capable of all
hazards, with the primary hazard predominantly dictated by storm
mode. Given the presence of the front, a linear mode will likely
dominate, with large to isolated very large hail as the primary risk
early in the convective cycle transitioning to damaging gusts
thereafter. Strengthening surface southerlies will contribute to
some elongation of the low-level hodograph, mostly from
central/eastern SD into far southeast ND. This area is also the most
likely to produce more discrete cells within the warm sector. As a
result, there appears to be a relative increase in the overall
tornado risk within this corridor.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region
this afternoon/evening, both within an arc through the northern and
eastern periphery of the MCV currently over northeast NM and the
northwestern TX Panhandle and along the lee troughing from eastern
CO into southern NM and Far West TX. For storms along the lee
trough, weak shear will limit storm organization, but high cloud
bases and steep low-level lapse rates could result in occasionally
strong downbursts. For storms north and east of the MCV, isolated
damaging gusts are the primary risk, although some hail could occur
over western KS where mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper
than areas farther south.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 040102
SWODY1
SPC AC 040100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of of
tornadoes will be possible this evening in parts of the northern
Plains. A few marginally severe wind gusts may occur across parts of
Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

... Eastern North and South Dakota and Western Minnesota ...

Severe thunderstorms continue this evening across portions of
eastern South Dakota, particularly across Tornado Watch #271. The
environment across the watch remains unstable with MLCAPE values
ranging from 2000 J/kg across southern South Dakota to around 1000
J/kg across northern South Dakota. Deep-layer shear will remain
sufficient for thunderstorm organization, including supercells into
the overnight hours. Low-level wind fields are expected to improve
over the next 2-3 hours, which may yield an increased potential for
tornadoes during this period.

The severe threat should continue slowly eastward into portion of
far western Minnesota during the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 06/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 040602
SWODY1
SPC AC 040600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High
Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

...Synopsis...

Broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern CONUS will persist
on Thursday, with a subtropical ridge located across the northern
Gulf. Additionally, a weak mid-level vorticity maximum/short-wave
trough across the southern/central Plains will continue to
weaken/open and begin merging into the main belt of westerlies
across the north-central US.

At the surface, a weak surface low will develop during the day
across the central High Plains. This low will move south and east
into north-central Kansas/south-central Nebraska overnight.


... Portions of the Northern Plains ...

Embedded within the broadly zonal flow are several subtle short-wave
troughs. One of these troughs will move from the northern Rockies
across the northern Plains. Ahead of this feature, moderate
instability will develop, with surface-based CAPE between 1500-2000
J/kg likely. As weak height falls overspread the region, a surface
low across eastern Wyoming will move south and east into northeast
Colorado and eventually into the central Plains. To the north of
this low, easterly/southeasterly upslope flow and increasing
large-scale ascent will combine for thunderstorms to develop during
the afternoon. Supercells will be possible as the southeasterly
surface winds and westerly mid-level flow results in 40-50 knots of
vertical shear. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to
very large hail and the potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. A
tornado or two will be possible with any storm that can interact
with the synoptic front.

Another area for storms will likely occur farther east, across
eastern South Dakota along a residual/slow-moving cold front.
Moderate instability and weak-to-moderate shear will support some
thunderstorm organization. Large hail will be possible with initial development, with a tendency for storms to grow upscale and
transition to a damaging wind threat.


... Central Kansas northeast into Central Iowa...

A remnant MCV/sub-synoptic low/mid-level trough located across the
Southern Plains this morning will slowly lift north/northeast across
the Central Plains during the day. Ahead of this feature, surface
dewpoints will rise into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs, resulting.
Diurnal heating should result in increasing instability during the
day, as suggested by the HREF mean surface-based CAPE reaching
between 1000-1500 J/kg and localized areas approaching 2000-2500
J/kg.

With several days of convection upstream of northeast Kansas into
southwest Iowa in the elevated mixed layer source region, forecast
soundings across the region reflect a largely uncapped environment
during the afternoon. The result should be multiple areas/rounds of
convective development during the afternoon and evening hours. The
moist environment and potential for moderate instability will result
in a potential for strong thunderstorm winds and marginally severe
hail. Additionally, forecast guidance shows an increasing low-level
mass field response during the evening hours, resulting in
increasing low-level curvature/shear. Thus, a tornado threat may
materialize during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially with
any thunderstorms that can remain discrete.

..Marsh/Moore.. 06/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 041200
SWODY1
SPC AC 041158

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High
Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

...MT/Dakotas/MN...
Fast zonal flow is present today over the northern U.S, with a
shortwave trough now over western MT approaching the northern High
Plains. Easterly low-level winds have transported 50s dewpoints
westward into southeast MT/northeast WY, where daytime heating and
increasing large-scale ascent will lead to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. Coverage of storms is not expected to be very high,
but those cells that can develop will likely be supercells capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into the
central Dakotas through the evening with a continued severe threat.

Farther east, a surface boundary is forecast to extend from
south-central SD into central MN. Strong heating in this corridor
will promote scattered thunderstorms after 20z. Forecast soundings
suggest an environment favorable for hail and damaging winds in the
strongest cells.

...KS/NE/IA...
A weak upper trough has emerged from the central/southern High
Plains overnight and is now moving across western KS. Radar loops
show an MCV near Hays KS that will track into southeast NE and
western IA later today. A combination of low-level convergence,
daytime heating, and the affects of the MCV will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms from northeast KS into IA. CAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg are expected, along with sufficient deep-layer shear
for multicell or perhaps supercell storm structures. The potential
exists for hail and damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells this
evening. An upgrade to SLGT was considered, but the shield of
clouds/precip in vicinity of the MCV limits confidence in heating
and the area of greatest concern at this time.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 041630
SWODY1
SPC AC 041628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High
Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

...Southeast MT through the Dakotas into southern MN...
Morning surface analysis places a weakening cold front from
northwest MN through south-central SD to a weak low near the
WY/SD/NE border intersection. Western portion of this boundary (from
central SD westward) is forecast to stall, with perhaps some retreat
northward during the late afternoon, while the eastern portion over
MN progresses slowly eastward. Dewpoints will likely stay in the 60s
along this boundary, with moderate to strong buoyancy developing by
late afternoon. Moisture convergence, augmented by modest
large-scale ascent attendant to a shortwave moving across MT, will
likely result in scattered convective initiation by the late
afternoon. Additional storms are expected farther west across
eastern MT ahead of the aforementioned shortwave. Moderate
deep-layer shear will support occasional supercells, with large to
isolated very large hail as the primary risk. Storms will spread
into the central Dakotas through the evening with a continued severe
threat.

Farther east, late afternoon thunderstorm development is expected
along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will be weaker than areas
farther west, and a more outflow-dominant storm mode appears likely.
Isolated hail is still possible early in the convective cycle,
particularly into central SD where steeper mid-level lapse are
expected.

...Central/Eastern KS into southeast NE/northwest MO/western IA...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV over western KS,
with widespread cloud cover throughout its eastern periphery from
central KS across south-central and eastern NE. Surface observations
show dewpoints in the mid 60s beneath this cloud cover, with
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across central KS to the mid
70s across southwest IA. Southerly flow is anticipated throughout
the day today, maintaining low-level moisture advection within this
corridor. This increasing moisture coupled with sheltered/cloudy
conditions will likely result in dewpoints climbing into the upper
60s (perhaps even some low 70s) across this region by the late
afternoon. Modest heating is anticipated as well, with temperatures
likely in the mid 70s to low 80s. Mid-level lapse rates are poor
(generally less than 6 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb), but the
ample low-level moisture will still support afternoon/late afternoon
MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg and little, if any, convective
inhibition.

Ascent attendant to the MCV and low-level convergence throughout its
eastern periphery will support widespread thunderstorm development
within this unstable and uncapped environment. Deep-layer shear will
be weak (less than 25 kt from 0-6 km) across much of the region,
with a largely multicellular mode anticipated. That being said, an
increase in low-level southerly flow is expected throughout the
eastern periphery of the MCV, contributing to some moderate
lengthening of the low-level hodograph. This stronger low-level
southerly flow combined with the ample moisture in place (i.e. PW
values approaching 1.8" by the late afternoon, which is above the
90th percentile at TOP) results in a unique environment supportive
of brief tornadoes. Even so, the lack of stronger deep-layer shear
still suggests a predominantly disorganized storm mode, which should
keep any tornado threat isolated enough to keep probabilities at 2%.
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible as well.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 041950
SWODY1
SPC AC 041948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are still possible today from parts of the northern
High Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible farther south across portions of the central and southern
Plains.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The
primary change made to the outlook was to expand 5 percent severe
wind probabilities into portions of the southern Plains. A couple of
measured severe gusts were noted in the TX Panhandle over the past
two hours. Given ample heating/buoyancy preceding thunderstorms from
northern OK to the eastern TX Panhandle, the occurrence of a few
more severe gusts is plausible.

..Squitieri.. 06/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026/

...Southeast MT through the Dakotas into southern MN...
Morning surface analysis places a weakening cold front from
northwest MN through south-central SD to a weak low near the
WY/SD/NE border intersection. Western portion of this boundary (from
central SD westward) is forecast to stall, with perhaps some retreat
northward during the late afternoon, while the eastern portion over
MN progresses slowly eastward. Dewpoints will likely stay in the 60s
along this boundary, with moderate to strong buoyancy developing by
late afternoon. Moisture convergence, augmented by modest
large-scale ascent attendant to a shortwave moving across MT, will
likely result in scattered convective initiation by the late
afternoon. Additional storms are expected farther west across
eastern MT ahead of the aforementioned shortwave. Moderate
deep-layer shear will support occasional supercells, with large to
isolated very large hail as the primary risk. Storms will spread
into the central Dakotas through the evening with a continued severe
threat.

Farther east, late afternoon thunderstorm development is expected
along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will be weaker than areas
farther west, and a more outflow-dominant storm mode appears likely.
Isolated hail is still possible early in the convective cycle,
particularly into central SD where steeper mid-level lapse are
expected.

...Central/Eastern KS into southeast NE/northwest MO/western IA...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV over western KS,
with widespread cloud cover throughout its eastern periphery from
central KS across south-central and eastern NE. Surface observations
show dewpoints in the mid 60s beneath this cloud cover, with
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across central KS to the mid
70s across southwest IA. Southerly flow is anticipated throughout
the day today, maintaining low-level moisture advection within this
corridor. This increasing moisture coupled with sheltered/cloudy
conditions will likely result in dewpoints climbing into the upper
60s (perhaps even some low 70s) across this region by the late
afternoon. Modest heating is anticipated as well, with temperatures
likely in the mid 70s to low 80s. Mid-level lapse rates are poor
(generally less than 6 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb), but the
ample low-level moisture will still support afternoon/late afternoon
MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg and little, if any, convective
inhibition.

Ascent attendant to the MCV and low-level convergence throughout its
eastern periphery will support widespread thunderstorm development
within this unstable and uncapped environment. Deep-layer shear will
be weak (less than 25 kt from 0-6 km) across much of the region,
with a largely multicellular mode anticipated. That being said, an
increase in low-level southerly flow is expected throughout the
eastern periphery of the MCV, contributing to some moderate
lengthening of the low-level hodograph. This stronger low-level
southerly flow combined with the ample moisture in place (i.e. PW
values approaching 1.8" by the late afternoon, which is above the
90th percentile at TOP) results in a unique environment supportive
of brief tornadoes. Even so, the lack of stronger deep-layer shear
still suggests a predominantly disorganized storm mode, which should
keep any tornado threat isolated enough to keep probabilities at 2%.
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible as well.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 050059
SWODY1
SPC AC 050057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible this evening across much of South Dakota
into parts of northern Nebraska and south-central Minnesota.
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible in
parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow is evident over much of the north-central U.S. A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over the far western Dakotas. At the surface, a 1002 mb low
is analyzed in eastern Wyoming with a quasi-stationary front
extending northeastward into central South Dakota and north-central
Minnesota. An axis of low-level moisture is located from near the
Black Hills east-northeastward across South Dakota into
south-central Minnesota, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to
mid 60s F. Along and near this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in the vicinity
of the Black Hills in southwestern South Dakota. The latest 00Z
sounding at Rapid City has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 700-500
mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with large
hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible for a few more hours this evening. The wind-damage threat
will likely increase if a cell cluster can become organized and move
into central South Dakota later this evening...see MCD 983. The
southern edge of any cluster could impact parts of northern Nebraska
later this evening.

Further east into eastern South Dakota, a cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing. The 00Z sounding at Aberdeen has
MUCAPE around 1800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and a
700-500 mb lapse rate just above 7 C/km. This should support
supercells with large hail early this evening. 0-3 km lapse rates
near 7.5 C/km will also be favorable for severe wind gusts. The
severe threat is expected to increase in southeast and central
Minnesota later this evening, as the storms in eastern South Dakota
move along the instability axis.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
eastern Kansas. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from
much of central and eastern Kansas northeastward into Iowa, where
surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Moderate to
strong instability is analyzed by the RAP from central Kansas into
far western Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the
northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Kansas into
southwest Iowa. These storms are being supported by a low-level
speed max of 35 to 45 knots, and could be associated with a threat
for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. As low-level
flow increases from this evening into the overnight period, the
redevelopment of storms may occur over parts of central and eastern
Kansas, where a continued marginal severe threat will be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 050601
SWODY1
SPC AC 050559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move eastward today from the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeast Kansas, with a trough in place from the low northeastward
into western Iowa. Moisture advection will occur to the east of the
low across the mid Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints will
increase into the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, a pocket of strong instability will develop from
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
Convective initiation will be hampered by a capping inversion in
place throughout much of the afternoon. The cap is forecast to
weaken during the late afternoon or early evening, which will allow
for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the stronger instability near the surface
trough. This convection will likely move east-southeastward across
eastern Nebraska and south-central Iowa during the early to mid
evening. Storms will eventually affect parts of northern Missouri
and north-central Illinois.

RAP forecast soundings in the early evening to the south of Omaha
and Des Moines have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 35 knots, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
dominant supercells. Cell coverage is expected to steadily increase
during the early to mid evening. This should result in a transition
to linear mode with a line gradually becoming organized. During this
process, the potential for wind damage is expected to increase, and
a few wind gusts could exceed 70 mph along the more intense parts of
the line. The wind-damage threat will likely develop eastward across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening,
as either the line approaches from the west or more storms initiate.


...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley today, where a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the trough during the afternoon across parts of central Minnesota
and central to northern Wisconsin. These storms will move eastward
toward the Great Lakes during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30
to 35 knots will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for
severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger short
multicell line segments.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 050732
SWODY1
SPC AC 050730

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move eastward today from the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeast Kansas, with a trough in place from the low northeastward
into western Iowa. Moisture advection will occur to the east of the
low across the mid Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints will
increase into the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, a pocket of strong instability will develop from
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
Convective initiation will be hampered by a capping inversion in
place throughout much of the afternoon. The cap is forecast to
weaken during the late afternoon or early evening, which will allow
for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the stronger instability near the surface
trough. This convection will likely move east-southeastward across
eastern Nebraska and south-central Iowa during the early to mid
evening. Storms will eventually affect parts of northern Missouri
and north-central Illinois.

RAP forecast soundings in the early evening to the south of Omaha
and Des Moines have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 35 knots, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
dominant supercells. Cell coverage is expected to steadily increase
during the early to mid evening. This should result in a transition
to linear mode with a line gradually becoming organized. During this
process, the potential for wind damage is expected to increase, and
a few wind gusts could exceed 70 mph along the more intense parts of
the line. The wind-damage threat will likely develop eastward across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening,
as either the line approaches from the west or more storms initiate.


...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley today, where a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the trough during the afternoon across parts of central Minnesota
and central to northern Wisconsin. These storms will move eastward
toward the Great Lakes during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30
to 35 knots will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for
severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger short
multicell line segments.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 051201
SWODY1
SPC AC 051200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley.

...NE to IA...
A large upper ridge is present today across the southern U.S., with
stronger westerlies over the northern tier of states. One shortwave
trough is noted over SD tracking east-southeastward. This feature
will provide large-scale ascent to parts of the Midwest states
today, leading to scattered clusters of thunderstorms. One area of
expected convective initiation will be late this afternoon along a
retreating surface boundary extending from south-central NE into
southern IA. Ample low-level moisture will reside in the frontal
zone with dewpoints in the low 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg.
Activity should develop around 00z along the boundary and track
slowly eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear suggests a risk of
supercells capable of large hail. Low-level winds are not expected
to be particularly strong, limiting a more robust tornado risk.
Activity will likely congeal and track eastward across southern
IA/northern MO and eventually northern IL through the evening with a hail/damaging wind risk.

...Northern IL to Lower MI...
A large decaying MCS is moving across northern MO this morning.
While this activity will likely remain non-severe through the
morning, potential for re-intensification exists this afternoon as
activity moves into northern IN and southern lower MI. If
sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates and
mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic damaging
winds.

...MI/WI...
A broad area of 60s dewpoints and broken cloud cover will lead to
moderate CAPE values this afternoon from southern MN into much of
WI. As the aforementioned shortwave trough approaches this
afternoon, cooling aloft and strengthening wind fields will promote
organized structures with any convection that can form. Model
guidance varies considerably on the cover of storms in this area,
but a conditional risk of large hail and damaging winds is present.
Will maintain only MRGL risk for this area for now, but an upgrade
to SLGT could be needed today if later model guidance indicates
greater coverage of afternoon/evening storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 051631
SWODY1
SPC AC 051629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FROM
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Strong to
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest KS, near the
intersection of weak lee troughing and the western edge of a remnant
outflow boundary extending across southern NE. Upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints are already in place east/southeast of this surface low
and outflow boundary. Southerly/southeasterly flow will persist
throughout the day, maintaining a large fetch of low-level moisture
advection from the southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Steeper
mid-level lapse rates are also emerging out of the central High
Plains, spreading gradually eastward over these moist low-levels
throughout the day. As a result, a corridor of strong to very strong
buoyancy is anticipated from south-central NE/north-central KS along
the IA/MO border into far west-central IL by the late afternoon.

Expectation is that the outflow boundary will gradually retreat
northward while the cold front progresses slowly southeastward
across SD and NE. Convective initiation is anticipated along both of
these boundaries, beginning over north-central KS/south-central NE
near the surface low at the outflow boundary/cold front
intersection. Most guidance indicates this initiation will occur
after 00Z, but earlier initiation appears possible given moist
low-levels, robust heating, and mesoscale convergence. Recent RAP
soundings indicate minimal convective initiation by 21Z.

Once initiation occurs, strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg)
will support intense updrafts capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Modest deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear less
than 30 kt) could limit storm organization, with a trend towards a
more outflow-dominant mode. The generally modest mid-level flow also
suggests upscale growth into an organized convective line is low.
Even so, a combination of convergence along the outflow and/or cold
front, as well as modest warm-air advection, will contribute to
additional storm development eastward into the Mid MS Valley.

...Upper Midwest...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
north-central WI southwestward through central SD. A low exists
along this boundary near the ND/SD/WI border intersection. This low
is forecast to track eastward along the front as it gradually shifts southeastward, moving in tandem with a shortwave trough moving
through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Buoyancy will be
more limited here than areas farther south, but still sufficient for
a few stronger, more organized storms, particularly since the
deep-layer vertical shear will be stronger. Discrete storms with
large hail as the primary risk are possible early in the convective
cycle. Thereafter, a trend towards more bowing segments with
damaging gusts is expected. Multiple rounds of storms are possible,
and the overall coverage is expected to be high enough to merit
introducing 15% hail and wind probabilities.

...Lower MI...
An MCV (associated with an overnight MCS) is moving across northern
IL/far southern WI this morning. Activity associated with this MCV
is currently weak and non-severe, but potential for
re-intensification exists this afternoon as activity moves into
northern IN and southern lower MI. Cloud cover introduces some
uncertainty regarding daytime heating and resultant buoyancy.
However, if sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates
and mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic
damaging winds.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 051958
SWODY1
SPC AC 051957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of
the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Strong to severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible
in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the ongoing thunder and severe probabilities to
reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 06/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026/

...Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest KS, near the
intersection of weak lee troughing and the western edge of a remnant
outflow boundary extending across southern NE. Upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints are already in place east/southeast of this surface low
and outflow boundary. Southerly/southeasterly flow will persist
throughout the day, maintaining a large fetch of low-level moisture
advection from the southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Steeper
mid-level lapse rates are also emerging out of the central High
Plains, spreading gradually eastward over these moist low-levels
throughout the day. As a result, a corridor of strong to very strong
buoyancy is anticipated from south-central NE/north-central KS along
the IA/MO border into far west-central IL by the late afternoon.

Expectation is that the outflow boundary will gradually retreat
northward while the cold front progresses slowly southeastward
across SD and NE. Convective initiation is anticipated along both of
these boundaries, beginning over north-central KS/south-central NE
near the surface low at the outflow boundary/cold front
intersection. Most guidance indicates this initiation will occur
after 00Z, but earlier initiation appears possible given moist
low-levels, robust heating, and mesoscale convergence. Recent RAP
soundings indicate minimal convective initiation by 21Z.

Once initiation occurs, strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg)
will support intense updrafts capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Modest deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear less
than 30 kt) could limit storm organization, with a trend towards a
more outflow-dominant mode. The generally modest mid-level flow also
suggests upscale growth into an organized convective line is low.
Even so, a combination of convergence along the outflow and/or cold
front, as well as modest warm-air advection, will contribute to
additional storm development eastward into the Mid MS Valley.

...Upper Midwest...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
north-central WI southwestward through central SD. A low exists
along this boundary near the ND/SD/WI border intersection. This low
is forecast to track eastward along the front as it gradually shifts southeastward, moving in tandem with a shortwave trough moving
through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Buoyancy will be
more limited here than areas farther south, but still sufficient for
a few stronger, more organized storms, particularly since the
deep-layer vertical shear will be stronger. Discrete storms with
large hail as the primary risk are possible early in the convective
cycle. Thereafter, a trend towards more bowing segments with
damaging gusts is expected. Multiple rounds of storms are possible,
and the overall coverage is expected to be high enough to merit
introducing 15% hail and wind probabilities.

...Lower MI...
An MCV (associated with an overnight MCS) is moving across northern
IL/far southern WI this morning. Activity associated with this MCV
is currently weak and non-severe, but potential for
re-intensification exists this afternoon as activity moves into
northern IN and southern lower MI. Cloud cover introduces some
uncertainty regarding daytime heating and resultant buoyancy.
However, if sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates
and mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic
damaging winds.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
this evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri
and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated wind gusts and hail will also
be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and western
Great Lakes.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over the north-central U.S. The southern part of the trough
extends southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of this
feature, a moist and unstable airmass is in place from southern
Nebraska and northern Missouri northward into much of Iowa, where
surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Along the
moist axis, the RAP currently has a pocket of strong instability
centered over the mid Missouri Valley with MLCAPE in the 3000 to
4500 J/kg range. A front, where low-level convergence is maximized,
is evident on surface analysis from northwest Iowa southwestward
into south-central Nebraska. Thunderstorms have recently developed
near the front in southeast Nebraska. These storms are expected to
steadily increase in coverage this evening as the shortwave trough
approaches.

From southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa early this evening, RAP
forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This environment will support
supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells...see
MCD 992. Short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of strong
to severe storms will organize during the evening. As this occurs,
the wind-damage threat will likely increase. If a line segment can
become intense, then wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible. The
severe threat will gradually develop eastward across southern Iowa
into northern Illinois from mid to late evening. An isolated severe
threat may persist into the early overnight period.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
A surface low is evident on surface analysis over northeast
Wisconsin with a cold front extending southwestward across central
and western Wisconsin. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing
along the front. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP
showing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Ahead of the front,
the Green Bay and La Crosse WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 25
to 35 knot range suggesting that deep-layer shear is strong enough
for an isolated severe threat. The more organized multicells along
the line could have potential for hail and isolated severe gusts for
a couple more hours this evening.

..Broyles.. 06/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 060601
SWODY1
SPC AC 060559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Large hail and severe wind gusts are
also expected in the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and
hail may also occur in parts of the southern Plains.

...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move eastward into the lower Great Lakes today. A cold front will
advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes, with surface
dewpoints ahead of the front in the mid to upper 60s F. An axis of
moderate instability appears likely to develop well ahead of the
front by early to mid afternoon. As this happens, convective
initiation will take place near this axis of instability from
northern Indiana eastward into northern Pennsylvania and
northeastward into southern New York. Convective coverage will
gradually expand, as a broken line segment moves southeastward into
the Ohio Valley and toward the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New
England.

RAP forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis over
northern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania have 0-6 km shear near
45 knots, which could support supercell development. Supercells will
be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado
threat. During the late afternoon, a transition to more linear
development is expected, which should result in an increased
wind-damage threat.

Further east from central Pennsylvania into southern New England,
forecast soundings at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot
range with 0-3 km lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment will support severe storm development. Although an
isolated supercell will be possible, the most likely mode will be
linear, favoring wind-damage as the primary threat. The potential
for severe gusts will be maximized from south-central Pennsylvania northeastward into far southern New York. The line segment is
expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts by early
evening.

...Northern High Plains...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern High Plains will
become more southwesterly during the day, as an upper-level trough
moves through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low will
deepen over the northern High Plains, with a trough located
northeastward into far northeast Montana. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop near the surface
trough. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence, will
result in scattered convective initiation. Multiple storms are
forecast to move northeastward across the northern High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in far northeast
Montana at 00Z have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near
35 knots. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are large with low to
mid-level lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This should be
favorable for high-based supercells capable of large hail and severe
wind gusts. The severe threat will likely persist into the early to
mid evening.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level low will move across west Texas today. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, where
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s into the mid 70s F. This will
result in the development of moderate instability by afternoon. To
the east of the mid-level low, low-level convergence is forecast to
become maximized over parts of west-central Texas and southern
Oklahoma. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from late afternoon into the evening. The instability
combined with steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 7 C/km) will
support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 061201
SWODY1
SPC AC 061200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM INDIANA INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop later today from parts of the lower Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley into southern New England. Large hail and severe
wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains and
southern Plains.

...Indiana to Southern New England...
Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over the
Great Lakes region. This trough and an associated mid-level speed
max will spread across the upper Ohio Valley into New England this
afternoon and tonight. Strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of
the trough has led to multiple clusters of ongoing thunderstorms
from eastern IL into parts of OH/PA/NY. One or more of these
clusters, along with new development by early afternoon, is expected
to intensify and spread across the SLGT risk region. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and low-level lapse rates to
support a risk of damaging wind gusts with this activity. Overnight
CAM solutions continue to vary on the likely corridor of greatest
concern. However, there is the potential for a rather widespread
damaging wind event across parts of PA/NY/NJ this afternoon/evening
if sufficient heating and mesoscale organization of the clusters
occur.

...Northern High Plains...
A large upper ridge is in place today over the High Plains region.
A southerly low-level jet is expected to intensify by early evening
as an upper trough approaches and low-level cyclogenesis occurs over
southeast MT. This should encourage the development of evening
thunderstorms across eastern MT tracking into western ND overnight.
It is unclear whether the bulk of these storms will be just west of
the warm sector and elevated, or will be surface-based. Regardless,
large hail is the primary concern.

...Southern Plains...
A weak upper low is tracking northeastward from west TX into
Oklahoma this morning. A band of stronger winds aloft to the east of
the low, coupled with pockets of daytime heating and ample moisture,
will promote damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 061631
SWODY1
SPC AC 061629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon/evening from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Large hail and severe wind
gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening.

...OH Valley into New England through late evening...
A surface cyclone will move eastward across southern QC this
afternoon and into northern New England tonight, in advance of a
midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. An associated
surface cold front will progress southward into the OH Valley and
southeastward to near the southern New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by early Sunday. A convective cluster is
ongoing as of midday in OH to the south of the cold front, and it
appears likely that these storms will be maintained through the
afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm and MLCAPE
increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Sufficient buoyancy, along
with steepening low-level lapse rates and gradually strengthening
midlevel flow, will result in the potential for downward momentum
transfer and wind damage from eastern OH across PA through the
afternoon (potentially reaching Philadelphia-New York City by this
evening). Otherwise, additional storm development will be possible
later this afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into
NY, where a mix of supercells and multicell clusters will be capable
of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or
two.

...Northern High Plains late this afternoon through late evening...
A midlevel trough will continue eastward from WA/OR to the northern
Rockies, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across southeast
MT. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to
reach ~90 F to weaken convective inhibition and support thunderstorm development along the stalled front across northeast MT/northwest ND
late this afternoon/evening. Forecast wind profiles support both
multicell clusters and supercells, and steep lapse rates through
most of the column will favor both severe outflow gusts (up to 75
mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) with a mix of
high-based supercells and multicell clusters.

...TX/OK this afternoon...
Pockets of surface heating from central/northwest TX into southern
OK, near and south of a weak surface low and MCV, will support
additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated
wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns
this afternoon.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 061953
SWODY1
SPC AC 061952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind swaths (some gusts possibly exceeding
75 mph) and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon/evening
from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England. Large hail and severe wind gusts (including gusts exceeding
75 mph) are also expected in the northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening.

...20Z Update...
The primary changes to the outlook were to upgrade to Enhanced Risk
across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the northern High Plains for
the potential of severe wind swaths.

Across the Mid Atlantic, a cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS continues
to rapidly track eastward with a history of both wind damage and
measured severe gusts well exceeding 50 knots. To the north of this
bow echo, more multicellular convection has oscillated in intensity,
also with a history of occasional damaging gusts. The latest
mesoanalysis depicts increasing buoyancy and eroding MLCINH ahead of
the aforementioned ongoing storms, with surface temperatures
exceeding 90 F, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The strongly heated
boundary layer will encourage efficient evaporative cooling and
downward momentum transport to support damaging to severe gusts.
Furthermore, appreciable westerly flow above 500 mb is encouraging
35+ kts of effective bulk shear oriented normal to the bow echo and
surrounding storms. This shear may aid in continued or further
development of organized storm modes capable of producing damaging
wind swaths, perhaps with a few gusts exceeding 75 mph.

Across the northern High Plains, guidance consensus continues to
depict multicellular modes of convection developing atop a
well-mixed boundary layer, where 90+ F surface temperatures and
2500+ J/kg MLCAPE are already in place. The current thinking is that
40+ kts of effective bulk shear will be in place to support
organized multicells and perhaps an MCS later this evening. As such,
a damaging wind swath may occur, with a few 75+ mph gusts possible.

Across the remainder of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains on
track.

..Squitieri.. 06/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026/

...OH Valley into New England through late evening...
A surface cyclone will move eastward across southern QC this
afternoon and into northern New England tonight, in advance of a
midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. An associated
surface cold front will progress southward into the OH Valley and
southeastward to near the southern New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by early Sunday. A convective cluster is
ongoing as of midday in OH to the south of the cold front, and it
appears likely that these storms will be maintained through the
afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm and MLCAPE
increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Sufficient buoyancy, along
with steepening low-level lapse rates and gradually strengthening
midlevel flow, will result in the potential for downward momentum
transfer and wind damage from eastern OH across PA through the
afternoon (potentially reaching Philadelphia-New York City by this
evening). Otherwise, additional storm development will be possible
later this afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into
NY, where a mix of supercells and multicell clusters will be capable
of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or
two.

...Northern High Plains late this afternoon through late evening...
A midlevel trough will continue eastward from WA/OR to the northern
Rockies, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across southeast
MT. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to
reach ~90 F to weaken convective inhibition and support thunderstorm development along the stalled front across northeast MT/northwest ND
late this afternoon/evening. Forecast wind profiles support both
multicell clusters and supercells, and steep lapse rates through
most of the column will favor both severe outflow gusts (up to 75
mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) with a mix of
high-based supercells and multicell clusters.

...TX/OK this afternoon...
Pockets of surface heating from central/northwest TX into southern
OK, near and south of a weak surface low and MCV, will support
additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated
wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns
this afternoon.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 070104
SWODY1
SPC AC 070102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this
evening over parts of southern New England, and from the Ohio Valley
into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts
(including gusts exceeding 75 mph) are also expected in the northern
High Plains.

...New England...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing from New Jersey northeastward into southern New England. This line is being
supported by large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level
shortwave trough moving eastward through the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints across southern New England are
in the lower to mid 60s F, and the RAP is analyzing MUCAPE around
1000 J/kg. The WSR-88D VWPs at both New York and Boston have 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 35 knots of flow 1 km above
the surface. This environment, along with steep low-level lapse
rates, evident on forecast soundings will be favorable for severe
wind gusts as the line moves eastward across southern New England
this evening.

Further north across the remainder of New England, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. These storms are located in the vicinity
of an instability maximum, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is present
which should support an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail.

...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level
flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold
front is located from far northern Indiana eastward to near Lake
Erie. To the south of the front, dewpoints are mostly in the lower
70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. The RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing along and to the south of the instability axis. The
strongest deep-layer shear is analyzed from Ohio into southern
Pennsylvania, which should be the favored corridor for supercell
development. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible
with supercells. Multicells will also be capable of strong to severe
gusts.

Further west into the mid Mississippi Valley, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible near a pocket of moderate instability. Steep
low-level lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe
gusts. Hail will also be possible.

...Northern High Plains...
Over the northern High Plains, water vapor imagery shows a mid-level
shortwave trough moving northeastward through the flow. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and unstable airmass is located across eastern
Montana and western North Dakota, where surface dewpoints are mostly
in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. Over this area, the RAP has MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the western edge of the
stronger instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop this
evening. The storms will move northeastward across northeastern
Montana and far northwestern North Dakota.

Forecast soundings to the northwest of Williston have 0-6 km shear
of 45 to 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 9 C/km.
This will support the development of supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more dominant storms. In addition, low-level lapse rates will be
very steep supporting severe wind gusts. A few gusts above 75 mph
will be possible, especially if a cold pool can organize.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass in
place from central and north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the stronger
instability along the I-35 corridor from the northern Texas Hill
Country into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro. Steep lapse rates and
moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated
wind-damage and hail threat for a couple more hours this evening.

Further east into the Ark-La-Tex, scattered storms are ongoing from
far eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas. These storms are
located along the northern edge of moderate instability, where the
RAP has MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings near Fort Smith
early this evening have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200
m2/s2 suggesting an isolated tornado threat will exist. The tornado
threat should persist for a couple more hours.

..Broyles.. 06/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 070548
SWODY1
SPC AC 070546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and an
isolated tornado threat are expected today across parts of the
northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind
gusts will be possible from parts of eastern Oklahoma and
southeastern Kansas eastward across the Ozarks. Strong wind gusts
will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the
Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies
today. Ahead of the trough, mid-level heights will gradually fall
across the northern Plains. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
will deepen in the western Dakotas as a cold front advances eastward
across the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints near the surface
trough will be in the lower to mid 60s F which will enable moderate
instability to develop around midday. During the afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to form along the front and further east
near the surface trough as low-level convergence increases. Although
cells will initially be discrete, convection is expected to grow
upscale into a line during the evening.

At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in western
North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant
supercells may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter. Low-level shear may be strong enough for an
isolated tornado threat as well. Supercells will be favored in the
late afternoon when cells will likely be discrete. In the early
evening, a quick transition to linear mode is expected, although
rotating elements will continue to be possible in the line itself.
As the line develops, severe wind gusts will become more likely.
Intense parts of the line could be capable of producing wind gusts
above 75 mph.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi
Valley...
An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the central
U.S. today, over the top of a moist and unstable airmass. Surface
dewpoints from eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into
the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.
This will contribute to the development of moderate instability by
afternoon. Random areas of maximized low-level convergence are
expected this afternoon which will lead to the formation of
scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear of 25 to 30 knots should
be sufficient for isolated supercells. Storm-relative helicity could
reach 200 m2/s2 in a few areas, which would support an isolated
tornado threat. Strong wind gusts will also be possible with this
threat extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The
wind-damage threat will be greatest in the mid to late afternoon as
low-level lapse rates become steep.

...Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough and an associated cold front will move across
the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the
mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon.
Thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of the front during
the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front
suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates will peak near 8 C/km, which should
support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 071206
SWODY1
SPC AC 071204

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an
isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for
tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible across the Ozarks
region. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid
Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic.

...MT/WY/Dakotas...
A strong upper trough currently over the northern Great Basin will
translate eastward today, with large scale forcing for ascent
overspreading much of the northern High Plains region. This will
aid cyclogenesis over eastern WY and focus a surface cold front from south-central WY into northwest ND. Thunderstorms are expected to
form by mid-afternoon off the BigHorn mountains and build eastward
across southeast MT. While this environment will be post-frontal,
Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will
support a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
Most CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms will become more numerous
and intense as they spread into western SD this evening, maintaining
support of the ENH risk area.

...Ozarks...
A weak cut-off low continues to drift northeastward across OK this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau today,
where scattered thunderstorms are expected through the period.
Parameters are rather weak across this region, but there will be
some risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a tornado this
afternoon/evening if pockets of daytime heating can occur.

...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 071641
SWODY1
SPC AC 071639

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts,
large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. A couple
of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the
Ozarks region.

...MT/WY/Dakotas...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough
over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward
through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface
mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal
zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far
western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the
boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE
values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once
storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve
during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the
early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and
becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight
from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems
increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow
echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs
this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the
co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level
support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak
gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk
but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run
continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This
activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual
lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it
moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late.

...Ozarks...
A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances
from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this
afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of
stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass
with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few
weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple
of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with
this activity.

...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 072001
SWODY1
SPC AC 072000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A bow echo with 60-100 mph gusts appears likely over the northern
High Plains into the Dakotas this afternoon, with a few instances of
severe hail and isolated tornadoes also possible. A couple of
tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are still possible across the
Ozarks region.

...20Z Update...
A Category 4/Moderate Risk was introduced to portions of the
northern High Plains. Confidence is increasing in a well-defined cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS developing across portions of the
northern High Plains later this afternoon. A potentially dense swath
of 60-100 mph gusts appears likely, and a derecho may occur. Current observations depict a near stationary surface boundary across far
southeastern MT northeastward into western ND along an elongated
surface trough. High-resolution deterministic and ensemble guidance
(including HREF, REFS, and some of the latest WoFS runs) all depict
a classic bow echo MCS traversing this surface boundary, accompanied
by a widespread severe wind swath and scattered 75+ mph gusts. The
MCS would benefit from localized vorticity along this boundary,
which in turn could support book-end vortices and the subsequent
development and sustenance of a rear-inflow jet, lending
plausibility to the guidance consensus. Latest mesoanalysis also
shows continued eroding MLCINH and 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE in place. Low-
to mid-level lapse rates are already exceeding 8 C/km in some spots,
coinciding with 50-60 kts of sfc-8 km bulk shear oriented normal to
the anticipated bow echo leading line, which is favorable for
derecho development. Alternatively, multiple severe-wind producing multicellular clusters may occur, which would support higher
coverage of severe winds (with gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph).


Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with only minor
changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations.

..Squitieri.. 06/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/

...MT/WY/Dakotas...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough
over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward
through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface
mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal
zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far
western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the
boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE
values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once
storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve
during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the
early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and
becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight
from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems
increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow
echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs
this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the
co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level
support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak
gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk
but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run
continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This
activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual
lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it
moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late.

...Ozarks...
A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances
from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this
afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of
stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass
with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few
weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple
of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with
this activity.

...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 080102
SWODY1
SPC AC 080100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A line of severe thunderstorms with wind gusts potentially above 75
mph is expected over the northern High Plains this evening, with
large to very large hail and an isolated tornado threat also
possible. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are also
possible in the Ozarks.

...Northern High Plains...
At mid-levels, an upper-level trough is moving eastward into the
northern Rockies. Further east, a lead shortwave trough is evident
on water vapor imagery over the northern High Plains. At the
surface, a 994 mb low is located in northwestern North Dakota with a
surface trough extending southward into northwestern South Dakota. A
cold front is in far western North Dakota. To the east of the front,
surface dewpoints are mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F, and
moderate instability is in place. Numerous thunderstorms have
recently developed to the west of the instability axis, and these
storms are expected to organize into an intense line segment over
the next couple of hours.

RAP forecast soundings in western North Dakota ahead of the storms
have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 55 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb
lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. In addition, surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 25 degrees F over much area.
This environment will be very favorable for severe wind gusts. The
greatest potential for severe gusts will be from far northwest South
Dakota northeastward into much of western and north-central North
Dakota. Along this corridor, a nearly continuous bowing line is
expected to organize. Severe wind gusts above 75 mph will be
possible with the more intense segments. In addition to the
wind-damage threat, large to very large hail will be possible over
the next couple hours with storms that obtain supercell structure. A
tornado or two could also occur.

...Ozarks...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central U.S.
this evening. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is
in place from the southern and central Plains eastward into the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered strong thunderstorms are
ongoing along an axis of moderate instability over the Ozarks of
southern and central Missouri, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. Ahead of the mid-level trough, low-level flow is
forecast to become maximized in the Ozarks over the next couple of
hours. Forecast soundings near Springfield, Missouri by 03Z have 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 180 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 080602
SWODY1
SPC AC 080600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Front Range Into Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low
deepens ahead of the front. During the afternoon, an axis of
maximized low-level convergence will become focused along the Front
Range of east-central Colorado, along which thunderstorms are
expected in the afternoon. These storms will move eastward out of
the higher terrain into northeast Colorado during the mid to late
afternoon. A line of severe storms is expected to organize by early
evening.

RAP forecast soundings in northeastern Colorado late this afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 55
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5 C/km.
This will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any rotating storms
that can become intense. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
is forecast to peak around 200 m2/s2 over parts of northeastern
Colorado during the late afternoon, which will support a tornado
threat. As a cluster moves eastward into the central High Plains,
organization into a line is expected. This will increase the
potential for severe wind gusts, and a few gusts above 70 mph will
be possible.

...Great Plains...
A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
southern and central Plains today, with surface dewpoints mostly
from the upper 60s F into the mid 70s F. This will enable a pocket
of strong instability to develop by afternoon across central Kansas.
From near the instability max westward, model forecasts suggest that
low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon
over parts of western and central Kansas. This should result in
isolated to scattered convective initiation. A cell or two is
expected to develop and move southeastward into the strong
instability during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability max at 21Z have MLCAPE
near 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells
with large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level shear may also
support a conditional and isolated tornado threat. In addition, the
strong instability will contribute to a potential for hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph with
the more intense rotating cells.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward today across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast from far western Kentucky into southern
Illinois. Along this axis, deep-layer shear is forecast to be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates
steepen in the late afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be
possible.

...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western U.S.
today, as mid-level heights fall over the northern High Plains.
Ahead of the trough, a surface low will form in eastern Montana
tonight, as upslope flow develops to the east of the low. Near the
surface low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
late in the period, which will support isolated thunderstorm
development from northeast Montana into far northwestern North
Dakota. Instability, deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may be
sufficient for an isolated hail threat, mainly between 09Z and 12Z
Tuesday morning.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 081204
SWODY1
SPC AC 081203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...
Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the
southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will
remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of
easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and
northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward
transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the
foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep
mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable
deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will
be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward
into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air
and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This
will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later
updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE
convection is assessed.

By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale
into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest
KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with
storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours.

...Northwest AR...
A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over
southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a
risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into
northwest AR before weakening later today.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle...
A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions
along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated
thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional
threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

...Eastern KS...
A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today
with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM
guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat
to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of
large hail and damaging winds.

...Southern IL/Western KY...
An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 081654
SWODY1
SPC AC 081652

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and
a couple of tornadoes are possible over the plains of eastern
Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible
farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the
late evening. Severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible
along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...
A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained
over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S.
upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly
low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into
eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower
60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in
moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs
will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase
in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist
boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in
addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast
soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the
more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the
early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger
storms with this activity diminishing by late evening.

...KS vicinity...
A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central
Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS
to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb
mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very
rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and
early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result
in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has
trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and
moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening.
Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence
has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth
occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest
southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to
develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line.
Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity.
Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with
the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap
of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy
resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts
(locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility
for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts
and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves
into western parts of MO late.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK...
A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the
dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These
high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and
damaging winds for a few hours.

...Southern IL/Western KY...
An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 081958
SWODY1
SPC AC 081957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and
a couple of tornadoes are still possible over the plains of eastern
Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected
farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the
late evening. Very large to giant hail and severe gusts ranging from
60-100 mph are possible along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

...20Z Update...
Hail conditional intensity level 2, and tornado conditional
intensity level 1 were added to portions of northern into central
KS. Some of the latest high-resolution guidance depicts supercells
potentially remaining discrete or semi-discrete for a couple more
hours longer compared to earlier CAM runs. Given anticipated strong
low-level shear along the terminus of the low-level jet/baroclinic
boundary intersection, and over 40 kts of effective bulk shear
likely, any supercells that remain discrete could become quite
intense given strong to locally extreme buoyancy. Very large hail
approaching 4 inches in diameter may occur with longer-lived
supercells. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings show appreciably
large and curved low-level hodographs this evening (given low-level
jet intensification). As such, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out,
either with discrete supercells or with a well-defined mesovortex as
storms merge into an intense cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS later
this evening.

A Category 4/Moderate risk was considered for this outlook. However,
it remains unclear whether supercells will rapidly grow upscale into
a bow echo, or maintain discrete structures for a longer period of
time. It therefore remains questionable whether significant-severe
hail or wind will dominate long enough to warrant Moderate risk
coverage of a specific hazard. Nonetheless, very intense and
damaging storms capable of a combination of all significant-severe
hazards are expected across portions of northern into eastern KS
this afternoon into the evening hours.

Otherwise, the rest of the previous forecast (see below) remains on
track, with only minor changes made to thunder and severe
probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance
consensus.

..Squitieri.. 06/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...
A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained
over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S.
upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly
low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into
eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower
60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in
moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs
will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase
in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist
boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in
addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast
soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the
more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the
early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger
storms with this activity diminishing by late evening.

...KS vicinity...
A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central
Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS
to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb
mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very
rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and
early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result
in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has
trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and
moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening.
Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence
has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth
occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest
southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to
develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line.
Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity.
Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with
the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap
of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy
resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts
(locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility
for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts
and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves
into western parts of MO late.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK...
A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the
dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These
high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and
damaging winds for a few hours.

...Southern IL/Western KY...
An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 090107
SWODY1
SPC AC 090105

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging wind
gusts and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening from parts
of northeastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas. Large to very
large hail, severe wind gusts from 60 to 90 mph, and a tornado
threat are likely this evening across parts of north-central and
eastern Kansas. An isolated severe threat may persist for a couple
more hours from the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwestern
Oklahoma.

...Northeast Colorado/Northwest Kansas...
A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is
currently moving northeastward across northeast Colorado. At the
surface, a front is located across eastern Colorado with a moist
airmass extending from northeastern Colorado southeastward into
western Kansas. Surface dewpoints along this corridor range from the
upper 50s to the mid 60s F, which is contributing to moderate to
strong instability. Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing
across northeastern Colorado along the western edge of the stronger instability, and further north into far southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. The storms are expected to organize into a line
and move east-southeastward into southwestern Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas this evening. Large to very large hail will be
possible with the more intense supercells over the next hour or two,
mainly along the southern end of the line where some cells are
likely to remain discrete. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter
will be possible. A couple tornadoes will also be possible with
supercells. As a transition to linear mode occurs, the wind-damage
threat will increase. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible near
the leading edge of any bowing segments.

...North-central and Eastern Kansas...
On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be
located from southern Nebraska southward into central Kansas. Ahead
of this feature, a pocket of strong instability is analyzed by the
RAP over south-central Kansas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in
the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. A line of severe storms is ongoing in north-central Kansas, to the north-northwest of the instability
maximum. Multiple supercells with potential for large to very large
hail are ongoing within this line. Over the next couple of hours,
this line is expected to organize into a bowing segment, moving east-southeastward across the remainder of north-central Kansas and
into eastern Kansas later this evening. The instability combined
with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates
near 8 C/km will support a wind-damage threat. If a bowing line
segment can become intense later this evening, a potential will
exist for significant wind gusts above 80 mph. The wind-damage
threat will likely impact far eastern Kansas later this evening, and
western Missouri after midnight. A secondary line of thunderstorms
with severe wind gusts is expected to impact parts of north-central
Kansas after midnight.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle/Northwestern Oklahoma...
A very moist and unstable airmass is located across the southern
Plains. Surface dewpoints from the eastern Texas Panhandle into
northwestern Oklahoma are in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This is
contributing to strong instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE in
the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, with steep low-level lapse rates. The thermodynamic environment should support an isolated threat for
severe wind gusts for a couple more hours this evening...see MCD
1036.

...Far Western Kentucky...
A bowing line segment is currently ongoing in far western Kentucky
along an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE near
2000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings to the south of Paducah have 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2 early this evening,
suggesting that an isolated tornado threat may persist for another
hour or two. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 090556
SWODY1
SPC AC 090554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60 to 80 mph
winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some
potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected to
develop in parts of the central and northern Plains from this
afternoon into tonight. Severe wind gusts and hail will also be
possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward
into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S.
today. Ahead of the system, mid-level heights will fall over the
central and northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
in place over the Great Plains, with a dryline located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. To the east of
the dryline, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower
70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate
instability is expected to develop over the central Dakotas.
Thunderstorms will form near and to the east of the dryline in the
mid afternoon. Strong low-level convergence near the instability
axis will result in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode
with a large MCS expected to develop during the late afternoon and
early evening. The severe MCS will move eastward across the central
and eastern Dakotas, with the southern part of the line located in
central Nebraska.

Late afternoon RAP forecast soundings in the central Dakotas near
the instability axis have MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range with
0-6 km shear between 30 to 40 knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be very
favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 80 mph will be
possible with supercells early, and along the more intense parts of
the line as it develops.

Concerning the tornado threat, a mid-level jet will become
juxtaposed with a low-level jet in the late afternoon across central
and northern North Dakota. Storms that can remain discrete for a few
hours after initiation will have potential to become supercells and
produce tornadoes. The strongest low-level shear is forecast in
northeastern North Dakota, where RAP forecast soundings increase 0-3
km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range by early
evening. This will be favorable for a few strong tornadoes. Further
south from central South Dakota into Nebraska, there will be
potential for supercells with tornadoes near gaps in the line. The
threat for strong tornadoes may be greatest in the early to mid
evening as the line interacts with a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet
from far southeastern South Dakota southward into eastern Nebraska.

From late evening into the early overnight period, the severe threat
associated with the severe MCS is expected to gradually downtrend as
it moves into the upper Mississippi Valley.

...North-central and Western Kansas/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...

At mid-levels today, heights will fall within southwesterly flow
over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a moist
and unstable airmass will be located over much of the region. By
afternoon, a focused zone of maximized low-level convergence is
forecast to develop. This axis will move eastward toward the western
edge of the stronger instability, with thunderstorms forming in the
mid to late afternoon. Near the axis, MLCAPE is forecast to be
around 2000 J/kg with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition,
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will be large, which will be
favorable for severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early
evening.

...Upper Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the ridge, moderate
instability will be in place by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
that form within this moist and unstable airmass will have potential
for isolated severe gusts, mainly as low-level lapse rates become
steep in the afternoon.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 06/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 091300
SWODY1
SPC AC 091259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A prominent upper trough will shift east-northeastward from the
northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains and Canadian
Prairies through tonight, with height falls overspreading much of
the northern/central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. This will be
atop a moist airmass near/east of a dryline/front located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Warm sector
surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.

Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by
mid/late afternoon, initially spanning the west-central Dakotas
southward into western Nebraska. Some semi-discrete storms including
supercells may also form farther east within the warm sector,
enhanced as the mid-level jet phases with a significantly
strengthening low-level jet primarily focused across eastern North Dakota/northeast South Dakota. Aside from large hail, a few
tornadoes are expected, some of which could be strong especially
during the early/mid-afternoon hours. Over time and farther west,
strong low-level convergence near the instability axis will result
in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode with multiple linear clusters/possible MCS expected to develop by evening. The severe MCS
will move eastward across the central and eastern Dakotas, with
damaging wind and some hail/tornado potential continuing eastward
tonight toward Minnesota/part of Iowa.

Aside from North Dakota/northern South Dakota and northwest
Minnesota, another supercell/tornado-favorable zone could
materialize by evening farther southeast from southeast South Dakota
into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa/southwest Minnesota.
Mid-level temperatures will be a bit warmer and storm
coverage/certainty will likely be lesser across this region.
However, a rather favorable and potentially volatile environment
will exist as a secondary low-level jet branch increases and
interfaces with an effective warm frontal zone this evening, with
initial intense supercells plausible if/where storms develop.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Higher-based storms are expected to develop regionally by late
afternoon/early evening with moderate buoyancy and very steep lapse
rates favorable for large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts, some
of which could be significant.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
As a byproduct of several decayed MCS, multiple MCVs will are
expected to drift east-southeastward across the region today and
interface with a moist/unstable environment influenced by outflow
and differential heating. A rejuvenated round of severe storms is
expected by mid/late afternoon, and some supercells are plausible if MCV-related mid-level flow diurnally persists. Multicells capable of
damaging winds are the most probable hazard, but some
supercell-related tornado potential may also exist.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 091637
SWODY1
SPC AC 091635

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows negatively tilted upper troughing
from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough emerging over the northern/central High
Plains. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward today,
with associated height falls spreading from the northern/central
High Plains into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a moist airmass across the Plains,
although notable airmass modification has occurred across KS and
western MO from an overnight MCS. Outflow associated with this MCS
currently arcs from south-central KS through extreme northeast OK
and southwest MO into south-central MO. Convective outflow also
exists over south-central NE. These features add to an already
complex surface pattern which features several lows along a wavy
surface trough from north-central MO into southeast CO. A stationary
boundary also extends northeastward from the low over southeast MT
through south/eastern ND and far northwest MN.

General expectation is for the north/central High Plains to eject
over the northern Plains, with the associated large-scale ascent and convergence along the cold front contributing to thunderstorms
across a large portion of the northern and central Plains. Very
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will be in place across
much of this region, with potential pockets of extreme buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg) from eastern SD through eastern
NE/extreme western IA. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by mid/late afternoon, along the western edge of the
greater buoyancy from the west-central Dakotas southward into
western Nebraska. High LCLs and more southerly deep-layer shear will
favor a linear mode. These linear storms will move eastward into a
more moist and unstable airmass, while shear also strengthens and
becomes more southwesterly, likely resulting in a one or more
fast-moving convective lines. Primary hazard within these lines will
be significant wind gusts (75+ mph), although increasing low-level southerly/southeasterly flow with eastern extent could also support
embedded tornadoes. Hail is also possible within the stronger
updrafts, particularly earlier in the convective cycle.

A lower confidence, but still noteworthy, tornado risk will be
associated with any more discrete development that occurs within the
warm sector ahead of any convective lines. Primary forecast
uncertainty results from the inherent limited predictability of the
more mesoscale forcing mechanisms responsible for convective
initiation east of the greater large-scale ascent. Environmental
conditions support supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong tornadoes, with any mature convection. Two areas that appear
to have a relatively higher potential for discrete storms are
east-central into northeast ND, and eastern NE into southeast SD and
western IA/southwest MN. Stronger low-level flow will persist across
these areas, resulting in greater warm-air advection with perhaps
the realization of a discrete storm or two.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft atop a diurnally destabilizing
airmass is expected to support high-based thunderstorms across
southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon. These storms are then
expected to persist downstream into the more unstable airmass across
southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and northern TX Panhandle. Large
hail is possible early in the convective cycle but upscale growth
into a more linear bowing segment is anticipated. Given the high
cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, strong to severe gusts
are also possible, including the possibility for a few gusts over 75
mph.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
Airmass destabilization is anticipated this afternoon within the
very moist airmass in place over the region. Thunderstorm
development is expected across the region as a weak MCV, currently
over central MO, tracks southeastward into the region. Shear will be
modest, likely limiting storm organization, but strong buoyancy will
support robust updrafts and the potential for damaging gusts. Given
multiple surface boundaries and the presence of an MCV, a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 06/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 091955
SWODY1
SPC AC 091953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
modifications made based on recent trends in observations and model
guidance.

...Kansas/Nebraska...
VWP observations and 18z RAOBs from Grand Junction, CO sampled a
60-70 knot speed maxima embedded within the mid-level flow at about
6 km MSL. Recent mesoanalysis estimates and model guidance appear to
be under-analyzing this feature and show a more diffuse mid-level
jet of around 50 knots. As this stronger flow spreads east into the
Plains it will not only yield stronger deep-layer shear, but will
also promote faster storm motions downstream across the central
Plains. With convective initiation well underway across the High
Plains of NM and CO, confidence is fairly high in the development of
one or more convective bands across KS/NE later this
afternoon/evening. With the expectation for stronger mid-level
flow/deep-layer shear, it appears the potential for severe gusts is
just as high across north-central KS/south-central NE as it is
further north/south and warrants a unification of the 30% wind
probabilities.

...Eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota...
Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show a band of
deepening cumulus within a plume of rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) through the upper Red River
Valley of the North. Additionally, a subtle MCV - the remnants of
prior convection over NE - is currently overspreading the region and
may provide adequate forcing for ascent for initiation within the
weakly capped and highly buoyant air mass this afternoon. While
conditional, discrete convection that can develop within this zone
could pose a tornado threat as low-level winds strengthen through
the day. The 10% tornado contour was expanded eastward into western
MN to better address this potential.

...Indiana/Ohio...
Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance suggests a
semi-organized convective band may emerge across northern IN into
western OH later this afternoon and into the evening hours ahead of
an MCV (currently noted over central IL). Regional radars show the
early stages of cluster development across central to eastern IL
ahead of the MCV, which lends credibility to this scenario. However,
outflow boundaries are noted ahead of some of this convection,
hinting that the overall intensity of this activity may remain
somewhat modest. Nonetheless, 5% wind probabilities were expanded
downstream to highlight the potential for sporadic damaging winds.

..Moore.. 06/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026/

...Central and Northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows negatively tilted upper troughing
from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough emerging over the northern/central High
Plains. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward today,
with associated height falls spreading from the northern/central
High Plains into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a moist airmass across the Plains,
although notable airmass modification has occurred across KS and
western MO from an overnight MCS. Outflow associated with this MCS
currently arcs from south-central KS through extreme northeast OK
and southwest MO into south-central MO. Convective outflow also
exists over south-central NE. These features add to an already
complex surface pattern which features several lows along a wavy
surface trough from north-central MO into southeast CO. A stationary
boundary also extends northeastward from the low over southeast MT
through south/eastern ND and far northwest MN.

General expectation is for the north/central High Plains to eject
over the northern Plains, with the associated large-scale ascent and convergence along the cold front contributing to thunderstorms
across a large portion of the northern and central Plains. Very
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will be in place across
much of this region, with potential pockets of extreme buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg) from eastern SD through eastern
NE/extreme western IA. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by mid/late afternoon, along the western edge of the
greater buoyancy from the west-central Dakotas southward into
western Nebraska. High LCLs and more southerly deep-layer shear will
favor a linear mode. These linear storms will move eastward into a
more moist and unstable airmass, while shear also strengthens and
becomes more southwesterly, likely resulting in a one or more
fast-moving convective lines. Primary hazard within these lines will
be significant wind gusts (75+ mph), although increasing low-level southerly/southeasterly flow with eastern extent could also support
embedded tornadoes. Hail is also possible within the stronger
updrafts, particularly earlier in the convective cycle.

A lower confidence, but still noteworthy, tornado risk will be
associated with any more discrete development that occurs within the
warm sector ahead of any convective lines. Primary forecast
uncertainty results from the inherent limited predictability of the
more mesoscale forcing mechanisms responsible for convective
initiation east of the greater large-scale ascent. Environmental
conditions support supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong tornadoes, with any mature convection. Two areas that appear
to have a relatively higher potential for discrete storms are
east-central into northeast ND, and eastern NE into southeast SD and
western IA/southwest MN. Stronger low-level flow will persist across
these areas, resulting in greater warm-air advection with perhaps
the realization of a discrete storm or two.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft atop a diurnally destabilizing
airmass is expected to support high-based thunderstorms across
southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon. These storms are then
expected to persist downstream into the more unstable airmass across
southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and northern TX Panhandle. Large
hail is possible early in the convective cycle but upscale growth
into a more linear bowing segment is anticipated. Given the high
cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, strong to severe gusts
are also possible, including the possibility for a few gusts over 75
mph.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
Airmass destabilization is anticipated this afternoon within the
very moist airmass in place over the region. Thunderstorm
development is expected across the region as a weak MCV, currently
over central MO, tracks southeastward into the region. Shear will be
modest, likely limiting storm organization, but strong buoyancy will
support robust updrafts and the potential for damaging gusts. Given
multiple surface boundaries and the presence of an MCV, a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 100105
SWODY1
SPC AC 100104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this evening into tonight.

...Central and Northern Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough appears to be
located from eastern Montana southeastward into western South Dakota
and west-central Nebraska. At the surface, a 996 mb low is currently
located in northwestern North Dakota with a cold front extending
southward from the low. A dryline is evident from central South
Dakota into western Nebraska. To the east of the front and dryline,
a moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F, which is contributing to moderate to strong
instability. Thunderstorms are currently developing along the entire
length of the front and dryline. Storms that remain discrete or
semi-discrete over the next couple of hours could be supercells,
with a potential to produce tornadoes and large to very large hail.
A couple of strong tornadoes may occur with supercells that are
intense. As convective coverage rapidly increases over the next
couple of hours, a transition to linear mode is expected with a
squall line forming and moving eastward across the remainder of the
Dakotas this evening.

Along and near the instability axis, the RAP has 0-3 km lapse rates
in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, 0-6 km shear near this axis
is around 45 knots, as is evident on the Bismarck and Aberdeen
WSR-88D VWPs. This environment will be very favorable for severe
wind gusts, and some gusts could exceed 80 mph along the more
intense parts of the line. While a tornado threat will exist with
supercells early on, a continued tornado threat is expected as the
squall line develops with embedded rotating cells. The potential for
severe wind gusts and tornadoes will continue into the late evening
and overnight period as the line moves eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley.

Further south into the central Plains, the RAP has a pocket of
strong instability analyzed over east-central Nebraska, where the
RAP shows MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. Severe
thunderstorms have developed to the west and south of this
instability maximum. The RAP also has a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet
max in far northern Kansas. As this feature strengthens and moves
northeastward into eastern Nebraska, low-level shear will become
increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Supercells that can become
robust may be able to produce a strong tornado or two.

Southward into central Kansas, strong instability is analyzed by the
RAP over much of central and northeastern Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated to be from 3000 to 4500 J/kg. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is present and low to mid-level lapse rates are
steep. This will support a threat for large hail and severe wind
gusts this evening with the stronger supercells and short line
segments.

...Ohio Valley...
A moist and unstable airmass is currently located across much of the
Ohio Valley. An axis of instability is analyzed from southern
Illinois east-northeastward across southern Indiana and northwest
Ohio. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in west-central Indiana
just to the west of the instability axis. Ahead of the storms,
low-level lapse rates are steep. This will contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts over the next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 06/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 100601
SWODY1
SPC AC 100559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward into the central and
northern Plains today, as the exit region of a jet streak
overspreads the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. At the
surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the northern
Plains with a warm front moving into the western Great Lakes.
Between these two fronts, a very moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. Early in the day, a
line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop in western Iowa
near the western edge of the moist airmass. A potential for severe
wind gusts will be possible with this line. Eastward across the
moist sector, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop
by midday as surface temperatures warm. This will help the line to
grow upscale, potentially into a linear MCS, as it moves across
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois early this afternoon.
Severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes will be possible along the
stronger parts of this line segment.

In the wake of the initial line segment, instability is expected to
increase as moisture advection and surface heating take place. An
instability axis is forecast to develop in the afternoon from
eastern Missouri northward into eastern Iowa, where MLCAPE should
increase into the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm development
will be likely during the mid to late afternoon along a zone of
low-level convergence from northern Missouri into central and
eastern Iowa. Additional storms are expected to form further north
into parts of far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. RAP
forecast soundings in the late afternoon from eastern Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin have curved hodographs, with 0-6 km shear near
40 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2. This
environment will support supercells with tornado potential. A strong
tornado or two will be possible as supercells move eastward in a
strengthening low-level jet during the late afternoon and early
evening. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible with
supercells. From this cluster, a second severe line segment with
damaging wind gusts is expected to develop. This line will likely
impact parts of northeast Missouri and north-central Illinois.

Further southwest across parts of northwest/north-central Missouri
and northeast Kansas, scattered thunderstorm development is expected
during the late afternoon and early evening. These storms will be
located near an axis of strong instability, along which RAP
forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in around 40 knots. In
addition 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km.
The environment should support large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F.
Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated thunderstorms
appear likely to develop in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. Forecast soundings across the Ohio Valley show
steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and have enough
deep-layer shear for a localized severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells could produce isolated severe gust and hail.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 101255
SWODY1
SPC AC 101254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.

...Midwest/Missouri Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley...
With a broad upper trough centered near/east of the northern CONUS
and Canadian Rockies, its lead portion will shift northeastward over
the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity today, with more limited
forcing for ascent and height falls farther south, until the
late-night arrival of a secondary portion of this trough out of the
northern Rockies and north-central High Plains. The primary synoptic low/surface triple point will shift from northern Minnesota
north-northeastward into Canada. A moist environment will be in
place to the east of an eastward-advancing cold front, with
north-northeastward air mass recovery in the wake of overnight/early
morning storms (MCS) across the eastern Dakotas and
Minnesota/Wisconsin.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in the predawn hours across
eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas into northwest Missouri and
western Iowa. This development is driven by a strong southwesterly
low-level jet and ample elevated moisture transport. For additional
short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1063. This development
could further increase today and shift east-northeastward across
Iowa/northern Missouri and eventually northwest Illinois today,
complexifying the forecast scenario. These storms could pose a
severe-storm risk within this corridor relatively early today, with
subsequent development expected by late afternoon near the cold
front spanning Minnesota into east-central Iowa, northern Missouri
and eastern Kansas. The early day storms, pending how extensive they
are, could spatially influence via outflow/cloud debris a preferred
zone for redevelopment near the Iowa/Missouri border vicinity toward west-central/northwest Illinois. Meanwhile, farther north, in closer
proximity to the large-scale height falls, another preferred zone of severe-storm development could focus across northern/eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Deep-layer shear will be strengthening across these regions and will
broadly support initial supercells capable of large hail, with very
large hailstones possible with initial development near the cold
front late this afternoon and early evening. A predominant large
hail risk is also expected late tonight with anticipated mostly
elevated development across central/eastern Nebraska and northeast
Kansas, attributable to the approaching upstream system and an
re-intensifying low-level jet and warm/moist advection. Large hail
aside, tornadoes will be possible regionally late this afternoon and
evening, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). The early day storms
could ultimately organize and pose a damaging wind threat, and more
broadly so this evening as storms trend upscale near/east of the
cold front, potentially leading to a multi-round severe potential in
some areas today and tonight.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F.
While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and
more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon
as the boundary layer destabilizes. This development will be further
influenced by one or more weak eastward-moving MCVs over the upper
Ohio River Valley this morning. Damaging winds will be the primary
hazard regionally.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 101634
SWODY1
SPC AC 101632

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.

...Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central Plains...
Regional radar imagery shows an ongoing cluster of strong
thunderstorms across southern IA and northern MO, supported by a
residual low-level jet that currently extends from KS/northern OK
into the region. Heating of the very moist airmass downstream will
result in limited convective inhibition and strong to very strong
buoyancy by the early afternoon. Reintensification of the ongoing
cluster is anticipated as it moves within this destabilizing
airmass. Deep-layer shear will be modest but still sufficient for
some organization, and the development of a strong to occasionally
severe bowing line segment appears probable, particularly from
northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. New updrafts ahead of
the line could also produce hail early in the convective cycle,
while also potentially contributing to updraft augmentation as they
merge into the line. Some isolated hail could result from this
augmentation as well.

Farther north, recent surface analysis placed a triple point low
over northeast SD. An occluded front extends north-northwestward
from this low across eastern ND into central Manitoba, while cold
front extends southward to another low over northeast NE and then
back southwestward across the central Plains. The frontal zone and
triple point low are forecast to progress eastward into the Upper
Midwest, interacting with a diurnally destabilizing airmass to
support thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) will support strong buoyancy,
despite modest lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear
should be sufficient for updraft organization. As a result, strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead the front,
with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated very large hail to
2" in diameter could occur. Some damaging gusts are possible as
storms transition into bowing line segments over time. There is also
a low-probability for a few brief tornadoes, particularly with any
more cellular development from central into eastern WI from 21 to
00Z.

An additional severe threat will likely materialize this evening in
the wake of the afternoon MCS within the recovered airmass from the
Mid MS Valley westward through the Mid MO Valley into the central
Plains. The impetus for this redevelopment will likely be a complex
combination of low-level convergence along the approaching front,
low-level convergence and warm-air advection along remnant outflow,
and modest large-scale ascent. Development along the front appears
most likely from central IA southwestward into northeast KS, while
development along the outflow appears most likely northwest IL
across southern IA. The airmass in all of these areas will likely
feature ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid
70s), warm surface temperatures (highs in the low 90s), and at least
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. This will result in strong to
extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from
northeast KS into southern IA, northern MO, and west-central IL.

Complex surface pattern will likely yield limited predictability for
the primary severe hazard this evening. Given the extreme buoyancy
and moderate mid-level flow, any more cellular development that is
able to mature should become supercellular, with all severe hazards
possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Storm interaction
and strong downdrafts will likely make maintaining a discrete mode
difficult, but low-level hodographs support the potential for a
strong tornado, particularly from 00 to 03Z amid a strengthening
low-level jet.

Lastly, early morning strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across central/eastern NE as a secondary branch of the low-level jet
develops in response to another shortwave trough moving into the
central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F.
While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and
more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon
as the boundary layer destabilizes. These storms will be further
influenced by a pair of weak eastward-moving MCVs, one over the
upper Ohio River Valley and the other over the central Appalachians.
Damaging winds, associated with water-loaded downbursts, will be the
primary hazard regionally.

..Mosier/Flournoy.. 06/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 101708
SWODY1
SPC AC 101706

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.

...Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central Plains...
Regional radar imagery shows an ongoing cluster of strong
thunderstorms across southern IA and northern MO, supported by a
residual low-level jet that currently extends from KS/northern OK
into the region. Heating of the very moist airmass downstream will
result in limited convective inhibition and strong to very strong
buoyancy by the early afternoon. Reintensification of the ongoing
cluster is anticipated as it moves within this destabilizing
airmass. Deep-layer shear will be modest but still sufficient for
some organization, and the development of a strong to occasionally
severe bowing line segment appears probable, particularly from
northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. New updrafts ahead of
the line could also produce hail early in the convective cycle,
while also potentially contributing to updraft augmentation as they
merge into the line. Some isolated hail could result from this
augmentation as well.

Farther north, recent surface analysis placed a triple point low
over northeast SD. An occluded front extends north-northwestward
from this low across eastern ND into central Manitoba, while cold
front extends southward to another low over northeast NE and then
back southwestward across the central Plains. The frontal zone and
triple point low are forecast to progress eastward into the Upper
Midwest, interacting with a diurnally destabilizing airmass to
support thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) will support strong buoyancy,
despite modest lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear
should be sufficient for updraft organization. As a result, strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead the front,
with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated very large hail to
2" in diameter could occur. Some damaging gusts are possible as
storms transition into bowing line segments over time. There is also
a low-probability for a few brief tornadoes, particularly with any
more cellular development from central into eastern WI from 21 to
00Z.

An additional severe threat will likely materialize this evening in
the wake of the afternoon MCS within the recovered airmass from the
Mid MS Valley westward through the Mid MO Valley into the central
Plains. The impetus for this redevelopment will likely be a complex
combination of low-level convergence along the approaching front,
low-level convergence and warm-air advection along remnant outflow,
and modest large-scale ascent. Development along the front appears
most likely from central IA southwestward into northeast KS, while
development along the outflow appears most likely northwest IL
across southern IA. The airmass in all of these areas will likely
feature ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid
70s), warm surface temperatures (highs in the low 90s), and at least
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. This will result in strong to
extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from
northeast KS into southern IA, northern MO, and west-central IL.

Complex surface pattern will likely yield limited predictability for
the primary severe hazard this evening. Given the extreme buoyancy
and moderate mid-level flow, any more cellular development that is
able to mature should become supercellular, with all severe hazards
possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Storm interaction
and strong downdrafts will likely make maintaining a discrete mode
difficult, but low-level hodographs support the potential for a
strong tornado, particularly from 00 to 03Z amid a strengthening
low-level jet.

Lastly, early morning strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across central/eastern NE as a secondary branch of the low-level jet
develops in response to another shortwave trough moving into the
central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F.
While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and
more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon
as the boundary layer destabilizes. These storms will be further
influenced by a pair of weak eastward-moving MCVs, one over the
upper Ohio River Valley and the other over the central Appalachians.
Damaging winds, associated with water-loaded downbursts, will be the
primary hazard regionally.

..Mosier/Flournoy.. 06/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 102001
SWODY1
SPC AC 101959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing forecast based on
recent convective trends and recent high-res guidance.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
As of 20 UTC, regional radar mosaics depict a mature MCS ongoing
across northern IL into northern WI with multiple severe gusts
reported over the past few hours (see MCD #1066 for additional
short-term details). Behind the MCS, a stout cold pool is in place
from northeast MO into eastern IA and southeast MN featuring
temperatures in the low 70s under a cirrus canopy. This cold pool
casts some uncertainty on the degree of air mass recovery, and
recent high-res guidance suggests that the primary severe threat may
have passed for portions of the region. 30% wind probabilities were
reduced to reflect this trend; however, southwesterly flow from the
surface through 500 mb is advecting higher theta-e air in the low
levels and steeper mid-level lapse rates east/northeastward into the
cold pool. This will support re-development of strong to severe
thunderstorms later this evening with primarily a risk for very
large hail, so maintained Enhanced-caliber hail probabilities to
reflect this potential.

...Central Kansas/northwest Missouri...
A volatile environment is emerging from central KS to northwest MO
where MLCAPE is increasing to 3000-3500 J/kg per an 18 UTC TOP RAOB
and recent mesoanalysis estimates. Additionally, the 18 UTC RAOB
sampled effective bulk shear on the order of 50 knots as well as
strong veering through the lowest kilometer. This environment is
highly favorable for intense supercells, which appear likely in the
coming hours based on recent GOES visible imagery (see MCD #1067 for
additional short-term details). Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged
ensemble guidance and WoFS solutions all suggest the highest hail
and tornado threat will likely emerge from the Salina, KS area
northeastward into northwest MO through the evening. Storm mode
remains a modulating factor with upscale growth likely, but a window
exists for very strong discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Both
tornado and hail risk contours were adjusted west/southwestward to
reflect these recent trends.

...Eastern Nebraska/far western Iowa...
Latest forecast guidance continues to show a signal for elevated
convection near the terminus of a low-level jet across eastern
NE/western IA late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings from these solutions, most notably recent RAP runs and the
12z NAM, hint that low-level moisture advection may be sufficient to
support parcels rooted near the surface. While the potential is
fairly low, there is some potential for a tornado threat if
low-level moistening is sufficient given an otherwise favorable
near-surface wind profile, warranting the introduction of 2% tornado probabilities.

..Moore.. 06/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026/

...Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central Plains...
Regional radar imagery shows an ongoing cluster of strong
thunderstorms across southern IA and northern MO, supported by a
residual low-level jet that currently extends from KS/northern OK
into the region. Heating of the very moist airmass downstream will
result in limited convective inhibition and strong to very strong
buoyancy by the early afternoon. Reintensification of the ongoing
cluster is anticipated as it moves within this destabilizing
airmass. Deep-layer shear will be modest but still sufficient for
some organization, and the development of a strong to occasionally
severe bowing line segment appears probable, particularly from
northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. New updrafts ahead of
the line could also produce hail early in the convective cycle,
while also potentially contributing to updraft augmentation as they
merge into the line. Some isolated hail could result from this
augmentation as well.

Farther north, recent surface analysis placed a triple point low
over northeast SD. An occluded front extends north-northwestward
from this low across eastern ND into central Manitoba, while cold
front extends southward to another low over northeast NE and then
back southwestward across the central Plains. The frontal zone and
triple point low are forecast to progress eastward into the Upper
Midwest, interacting with a diurnally destabilizing airmass to
support thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) will support strong buoyancy,
despite modest lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear
should be sufficient for updraft organization. As a result, strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead the front,
with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated very large hail to
2" in diameter could occur. Some damaging gusts are possible as
storms transition into bowing line segments over time. There is also
a low-probability for a few brief tornadoes, particularly with any
more cellular development from central into eastern WI from 21 to
00Z.

An additional severe threat will likely materialize this evening in
the wake of the afternoon MCS within the recovered airmass from the
Mid MS Valley westward through the Mid MO Valley into the central
Plains. The impetus for this redevelopment will likely be a complex
combination of low-level convergence along the approaching front,
low-level convergence and warm-air advection along remnant outflow,
and modest large-scale ascent. Development along the front appears
most likely from central IA southwestward into northeast KS, while
development along the outflow appears most likely northwest IL
across southern IA. The airmass in all of these areas will likely
feature ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid
70s), warm surface temperatures (highs in the low 90s), and at least
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. This will result in strong to
extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from
northeast KS into southern IA, northern MO, and west-central IL.

Complex surface pattern will likely yield limited predictability for
the primary severe hazard this evening. Given the extreme buoyancy
and moderate mid-level flow, any more cellular development that is
able to mature should become supercellular, with all severe hazards
possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Storm interaction
and strong downdrafts will likely make maintaining a discrete mode
difficult, but low-level hodographs support the potential for a
strong tornado, particularly from 00 to 03Z amid a strengthening
low-level jet.

Lastly, early morning strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across central/eastern NE as a secondary branch of the low-level jet
develops in response to another shortwave trough moving into the
central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F.
While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and
more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon
as the boundary layer destabilizes. These storms will be further
influenced by a pair of weak eastward-moving MCVs, one over the
upper Ohio River Valley and the other over the central Appalachians.
Damaging winds, associated with water-loaded downbursts, will be the
primary hazard regionally.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 110121
SWODY1
SPC AC 110119

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail, a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75
mph will continue this evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Midwest.

...Synopsis...
A cold front extends from portions of the upper Midwest into the
central Plains, with a surface low over Manitoba. Several lines and
clusters of severe thunderstorms continue along and ahead of this
feature across portions of the Great Lakes into the Midwest and central/southern Plains. The risk for damaging wind, large hail, and
a couple of tornadoes will continue into the evening across these
regions extending into the Ohio Valley overnight.

...Central Kansas, northwest Missouri and Iowa...
Widespread thunderstorm development continues across central Kansas
into central Iowa along the cold front. Initial development is
supercelluar and pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind, and
perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing along the front will likely lead
to upscale growth, with the primary threat becoming damaging wind.
Ongoing convection further west into southern Iowa/northwest
Missouri is remaining a mixed-mode of supercells and multi-cell
clusters. Within this area, strong instability and deep layer shear
may continue to pose a risk for a tornado or two while storm mode
remains semi-discrete. The 10% tornado risk and 30% hail risk areas
were removed with this update given the tendency for more linear
storm modes.

...Eastern Nebraska/far western Iowa and northern Illinois...
Latest forecast guidance continues to show a signal for elevated
convection near the terminus of a low-level jet across eastern
NE/western IA late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings from these solutions, most notably recent RAP runs and the
NAM, hint that low-level moisture advection may be sufficient to
support parcels rooted near the surface. Initial thunderstorms may
pose a risk for hail before growing upscale into a damaging MCS into
the end of the current D1 period tomorrow morning. A 30% wind area
was introduced into southeastern Nebraska/southern Iowa in support
of recent HRRR runs which show potential for a swath of damaging
wind across far eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa.

..Thornton.. 06/11/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 110621
SWODY1
SPC AC 110619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN IOWA
...NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two
organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential
for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong
tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will eject across the Upper Midwest into
the Great Lakes region today, with unseasonably strong 80-100 kt
southwesterly mid-level flow over spreading portions of the
upper-Midwest. An attendant surface low will deepen lift northward
out of the central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes, with a
trailing cold front extending into the central/southern Plains and
warm front/modifying outflow lifting northward into the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. Elsewhere, northwest flow is expected in the
mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a series of weaker
disturbances moving through that region.

A severe MCS is expected to be ongoing at the start of the D1 period
across portions of southern Iowa into western Illinois, posing a
risk for strong to potential significant wind gusts. Additional
development is expected behind the morning MCS along the cold front
and in the vicinity of remnant outflow from the morning MCS.
Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes (a few strong) will be possible before upscale growth and
eventual evolution to a damaging wind threat into the evening.

...Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and
upper Great Lakes...
The low-level jet is expected to strengthen this morning across the
central Plains, with convection developing across southeastern
Nebraska early this morning. This initial development will likely be supercellular and initially elevated, given strong deep layer shear
and returning moisture. Large hail will be the main concern before
cells cluster and beginning to organize along outflow. Hi-res
guidance trends have been for an organized MCS to develop and spread
eastward into portions of southern/central Iowa and northern
Illinois. Given the strengthening upper level flow and increasing
moisture, this will become surface based with the potential to
produce strong to significant wind gusts (some 70-75+ mph) in the
morning to mid-afternoon possibly extending into portions of
Michigan.

Much of the afternoon severe potential remains contingent on how the
morning MCS evolves. It is likely that a modifying outflow/warm
front will lift northward and settle into northern Illinois/southern
Wisconsin by the afternoon with the cold front further west. The
continued strong low-level jet should support strong warm air
advection and quick air mass recovery into northern
Illinois/southern Wisconsin. Additional thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front and near the modifying boundary. Strongly
sheared profiles will support initial supercells capable of large
hail and tornadoes (a few of which may be strong to intense). There
remains some uncertainty in where the placement of the boundary will
be and how long discrete supercell storm modes can be maintained. It
is possible that a corridor of higher tornado potential will become
clear with need to include higher probabilities as details become
clearer in further outlook updates.

Eventual upscale growth is anticipated as the frontal forcing shifts
eastward. Bowing segments capable of strong to significant gusts
will likely emerge. Wind probabilities were increased (with addition
of a 45% area) with this outlook to account for the morning MCS and
for potential for a secondary round of severe to significant wind
gusts. It is possible that higher probabilities may be needed with
further outlook updates.

...Eastern Kansas into the Southern Plains...
Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the trailing
cold front into portions of the central/southern Plains. Deep layer
shear will remain mostly post-frontal, however, around 20-30 kts
effective bulk shear and moderate to strong instability will support
some supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging wind.
Storm motions and boundary parallel shear will likely lead to
clustering and messy modes through time.

...Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians...
Forcing for ascent from multiple short-wave disturbances across the
northeast and dew points in the 60s to 70s will support development
of widely scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon across
the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though shear will be
generally weak, moderate to strong instability will be in place will
support stronger updrafts capable of damaging wind. It is likely
that several clusters will emerge with potential for organizing
along cold pools and more focused corridors of damaging wind
potential. A 30% area was added with this outlook to cover this
potential.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 06/11/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS01 KWNS 111300
SWODY1
SPC AC 111258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes region, including Iowa, northern Missouri,
northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin to Lower Michigan and
northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, some of which may be
strong.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Portions of the region have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk.
Another very active day with widespread/intense severe storms is
expected regionally. A consequential severe risk is already ongoing
this morning across Iowa/far northern Missouri, and will continue east-northeastward and become more prominent regionally during the
day. A well-organized/eastward-accelerating bowing cluster of
storms, now supported by an apparent MCV, has had a history of
measured severe-caliber wind gusts overnight and in the predawn
hours from southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa. A similar severe
risk should continue east-northeastward through midday across
eastern Iowa/far northeast Missouri toward northern Illinois, with
more of a surface-based/tornado risk potentially unfolding
relatively early today aside from a continued prominent damaging
wind threat.

Scenario is supported by a robust southwesterly low-level
jet/moisture transport, even with some diurnal weakening of the
low-level jet possible. Also influential is a prominent/increasingly neutral-tilt-shortwave trough and jet streak crossing the Corn Belt,
notably strong features by mid-June standards.

Convective overturning/outflow from last evening's MCS are still
residual factors evident this morning in observational
data/supplemental 3D mesoanalysis across far eastern Iowa, far
northeast Missouri into central Illinois. This is sampled by the 12z
observed sounding from KILX/Lincoln, IL. These residual factors may
somewhat southward-focus the peak/most-intense severe weather later
today, with more uncertainty progressively northward in general
proximity to Lake Michigan latitudinally, including parts of Wisconsin/Michigan. The timing/residual impacts of this morning's
MCS across Iowa/northern Missouri into northern Illinois and severe
potential in its wake near the surface low and front, and/or to its
(MCS) north-northeast are a bit less uncertain. That said, mass
response/fluxes related to the dynamic shortwave trough/speed max
will be notable and consistent with heightened severe-potential even
if outflow/cloud debris exists and sub-regional areas of
destabilization are sub-optimal.

Details of later-afternoon severe potential is somewhat contingent
on how the morning MCS further evolves, but a window for
redevelopment in its immediate wake will probably exist. This will
lead to a renewed round of severe storms as development occurs near
the cold front, and perhaps preferentially favors prior outflow,
with a damaging wind and tornado risk continuing eastward this
evening as the low-level jet re=intensifies and as storms gradually
grow upscale toward Lake Michigan and across Illinois/Indiana/Lower
Michigan.

...Eastern Kansas and Southern Plains...
Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the trailing
cold front into portions of the central/southern Plains. Deep layer
shear will be maximized in the post-frontal environment; however,
around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong
instability will support some supercell structures capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Storm motions and boundary parallel shear
will likely lead to clustering and messy modes over time.

...Mid-Atlantic ad central Appalachians...
Forcing for ascent from multiple shortwave disturbances across the
northeast and dewpoints in the 60s to 70s F will support development
of widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon across the
Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though vertical shear
will be generally weak, moderate to strong instability will be in
place will support stronger updrafts capable of damaging winds. It
is likely that several clusters will emerge with potential for
organizing along cold pools and more focused corridors of damaging
wind potential.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/11/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)