AWUS01 KWNH 271659
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-272258-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0260
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1258 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern, central, eastern Oklahoma,
far north Texas, and far western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271658Z - 272258Z

Summary...A convective complex over north-central Texas is
drifting northward and should spread areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates into the discussion area over the next 2-4 hours. Flash
flooding is possible with this activity.

Discussion...A focused band of convection near east Dallas metro
has gained mesoscale organization over the past hour while
drifting northward and producing 6-8 inches of rainfall (estimated
per MRMS/radar). That convection continues to remain organized,
but has exhibited some weakening/lessening of rain rates over the
past 30 minutes. Easterly low-level inflow and strong confluence
near the convection continues to pose a heavy rain risk in the
near term - especially in/near Sherman, McKinney, and Rockwall.

The downstream airmass feeding convection continues to be plenty
moist (1.5+ inch PW) and unstable (2000 J/kg MUCAPE), with plenty
of sunshine/destabilization noted across eastern Oklahoma and
Arkansas. The north Texas complex was already beginning to prompt
heavier rain rates in far southern Oklahoma near Durant, and
additional convection is expected over time across the entire
discussion area given the combination of destabilization/ascent
and weak inhibition.

FFG thresholds are higher with northward extent from the Red River
into southern/central Oklahoma (around 2 inch/hr). Flash flooding
will remain possible, but will likely be tied to areas of training
and cell mergers that can boost local rainfall totals. This flash
flood threat will persist through at least 22Z/5p central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7sT6f42c4FNkoyxiNGcy0JWPUWfetRgT33hrOll18s3b1UMrfG--Y3rQu4CdMPRZoPty= YygrexNHvG-j56b1fWs_Kwk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36439509 35749396 34129398 33699460 33569555=20
33349645 33819735 35599735 36349658=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271950
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-280130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0261
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...OH Valley into Central Appalachians.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271947Z - 280130Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible across
the OH Valley into the central Appalachians over the next 3-5
hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr area expected and shorter fused
rates of over 0.5 inches in 15 minutes will also be possible.

Discussion...Visible satellite imagery and surface observations at
1930Z showed a southward sinking outflow boundary that extended
from the southwestern corner of southwestern PA into southern OH
and into south-central IN, co-located with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorm activity was noted south of
the outflow boundary from eastern KY into central WV, out ahead of
a pair of vorticity maxima observed on water vapor imagery. A
larger scale vorticity max/shortwave was observed across IL/IN,
with eastward motion, helping support lift across the region.
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall was largely below 1 inch for a
majority of the the region, with the exception of south-central IN
where training was supporting hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches but
also 15-minute rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches.

With ample moisture/instability remaining in place via 19Z SPC
mesoanalysis data (500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7
inches), and continued forcing from ascent along/ahead of the
outflow and ahead of the upstream shortwave/vorticity maxima,
scattered thunderstorms will continue across the OH Valley into
the central Appalachians through the early evening. Expectations
are for individual cell movement toward the east at an average
speed of 10-25 kt but with system evolution toward the south with
time. Brief training will briefly enhance rain rates with 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour or less, likely supporting a few areas
of flash flooding across the OH Valley into the central
Appalachians where flash flood guidance values are mostly ~1 inch
per hour.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_b-um9cBG32hinS9h0nsHCX6JVXaJXHQKVf5ihAOeJa5-677MN_JCdIxF56NzjE9uG7E= Nbpr-rm5oitn8zxWkhxApvk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39738605 39598500 39108341 39298184 39688014=20
39027906 38297916 37558034 37558172 37778368=20
37838433 38368599 39158629=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272043
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-280230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0262
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...south-central to southeastern VA into far
northern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272040Z - 280230Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be possible over south-central to
southeastern VA into far northern NC through ~02Z. Rain rates of
1-2 in/hr and total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with
possible overlap with locations that have picked up heavy rain
over the past couple of days.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible satellite imagery at 2030Z showed a
southward sinking outflow boundary from the southern DelMarVa
Peninsula into central VA and a second outflow boundary from
south-central VA into northwestern NC. The environment south of
the northern outflow was estimated to contain 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and PWs near 2 inches per 20Z SPC mesoanalysis data. As the
northern outflow boundary continues to advance toward the south
into the evening, additional convective development is expected
along/ahead of the boundary with cells containing a mean west to
east motion at 20-30 kt. Due to the similarly oriented low to
mid-level flow and the boundary orientation, some brief training
of heavy rain will be possible over the next 3-6 hours, with
clearing occurring from north to south over time.

Portions of southern/southeastern VA have received 3 to 6+ inches
of rain over the past 48 hours and have limited capacity for
additional infiltration of water. Therefore, hourly rainfall of 1
to 2 inches and the potential for isolated totals near 3 inches
could support areas of flash flooding through 02Z to 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!64TL9NajwaPmIhCwxLrlTX0gRhZ9C9--NwtEw9gRsuGJf2vclY7WDfZHD47F1XLCAgTF= 1lTxXfMamkO_dzvK5qGIqIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37907655 37537567 37037545 36507571 36417673=20
36437775 36437906 36528003 37148017 37757815=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280524
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-281123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0263
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
123 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280523Z - 281123Z

Summary...An increasing threat for localized flash flooding will
occur over portions of western Kansas into the adjacent Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles as rainfall rates approach 2 inches per hour
at times.=20

Discussion...Broad upper level troughing with multiple smaller
mid-level perturbations pivoting around the general circulation
are causing a period of unsettled weather over the Central and
Southern Plains this evening. At the surface, a defined surface
trough axis is positioned over the western High Plains of Kansas
down through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles with an area low
pressure centered near Amarillo, Texas. Within the bounds of the
surface trough, deep moisture and prominent instability maximum is
co-located within the surface trough axis' and under the main area
of circulation positioned over the New Mexico/Colorado/Kansas
border. The alignment of the surface trough and primary upper
trough correlate to a more formidable area of forcing which is
well-documented in the latest deep moisture convergence pattern
from the latest mesoanalysis.

KDDC this evening experienced PWAT anomalies approaching the
95-99th percentile of climatological means for this time of year,
a testament to the depth and magnitude of sufficient deep layer
moisture availability. MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg will be
positioned across the area of interest providing sufficient
buoyancy for updraft development and initiating stronger
convective cores capable of heavy rainfall production. A few cells
are already occurring in the region with pockets of 1-2"/hr rates
and some intra-hour pulses reaching near 3"/hr at times as cells
mature. Deterministic outputs from the latest HRRR and RRFS
indicate some localized amounts between 2-4" over the next 6 hours
as the axis of convergence within the surface trough placement
begins to levy a more enhanced convective footprint over the
course of the early morning hours, perhaps lingering through most
of the morning if some of the CAMs are correct.

The likelihood of flash flooding remains in the modest category
due to the antecedent soil moisture conditions over the area as a
prolonged drier pattern has firmly driven FFG's to a less
favorable scenario for flash flooding compared to normal. As a
result, there is a flash flood risk possible over the western High
Plains between Kansas, Oklahoma, far southeast Colorado, and the
northern Texas Panhandle.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_--zGD1Hhgh1tmk6NVsMcJGiV3nLu5WZawmCS6KtDhgO7-1Tpqc3QGny0D0JHgyBDDt-= ChkxUSSk1N4pVR3t6WAlYVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38520115 38320041 37489993 36309960 35759966=20
35400025 35590117 36120209 36580235 37100235=20
37780237 38320211=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281047
FFGMPD
FLZ000-281446-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0264
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...urban southeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281046Z - 281446Z

Summary...Slow-moving downpours could cause urbanized flash flood
concerns this morning.

Discussion...A small cluster of thunderstorms was located near
Homestead. These storms were located along a subtle confluence
zone parallel to the southeastern Florida coast, which was
supporting strong updrafts amid minimal convective inhibition,
abundant moisture (1.8 inch PW values), and ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE.=20
Weak southerly steering flow was noted per objective analyses,
which should aid in slow northward migration of ongoing cells
through Miami/Ft. Lauderdale Metropolitan. Additionally, spots of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates were noted/estimated per MRMS, and should
these cells persist in intensity while drifting northward through
Miami, urban flash flood potential will increase. Models/CAMs
suggest that this isolated potential will persist for at least a
few hours this morning (through 14Z/10a eastern).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8tsKz4nRfzLIgN7vvD_l55yLjrcwJ0HeTetn5-E3Aoyj53yUnaLrA56adgna9fI5GNnb= ITJDw9omCPb5QRG-HnoAV5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26818034 26817986 25328020 25348062 26288055=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281616
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282214-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0265
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...southern Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, far
southwest Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281614Z - 282214Z

Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms producing heavy rain rates is
evolving slowly primarily across southern Mississippi. Flash
flooding is likely on an isolated to scattered basis through at
least 19Z.

Discussion...Persistent warm advection has enabled scattered to
numerous thunderstorm activity in the general vicinity of
Hammond, Picayune, and Wiggins over the past 1-2 hours or so. The
storms are focused on the northern edge of enhanced 850mb flow
over the north-central Gulf (20-30 knots per RAP/SPC Mesoanalysis)
while also experiencing the glancing influence of upstream
mid-level waves providing ascent. Abundant moisture (2+ inch PW
values) and surface-based instability (exceeding 2000 J/kg) will
continue to support repeating thunderstorm activity within the
warm advection regime in place.

Models/CAMs support repeating thunderstorm activity from
southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi for a few more
hours, with hourly rain rates exceeding 2 inches per hour where repeating/training is most pronounced. These rates are likely to
exceed FFG over time and prompt flash flooding. Through 19-20Z,
models suggest that low-level flow/convergence will slacken some
and cause thunderstorm activity to 1) eventually shift to the
northeast of its current axis and 2) exhibit lesser coverage over
all. Some models remove thunderstorm potential entirely, but this
scenario is doubtful as persistent mid/upper troughing to the west
will provide lift/ascent for at least isolated thunderstorm
activity to persist after 20Z through peak heating. Despite high
FFGs across parts of southern Mississippi, high rain rates will
likely result in at least isolated instances of flash flooding
especially if rain can occur over more urban/sensitive interfaces.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-fvkGdfh2avWXaazlAGXCuI23fP4DkqifkF5JwmjFWOkDzBk9DzZQerSzyPfHBbDRTTE= 8cIGTkf1E0LecWwhhPoF6uQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32158946 32098858 31788813 30708810 30108843=20
29328918 29259045 30099053 31319053 31739041=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281635
FFGMPD
MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-282234-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0266
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arkansas, southern Missouri, and far
southeast Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281634Z - 282234Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were beginning to increase in
coverage and intensity especially across north-central Arkansas.=20
Slow movement and efficient rainfall activity will result in a few
areas of flash flooding through 22Z/5p central.

Discussion...Storms are increasing in coverage and intensity along
a general axis extending from near Flippin/Harrison south to near
Camden, AR over the last hour. The storms are being forced by 1)
ascent associated with a mid-level trough centered over Oklahoma
and 2) differential heating through that aforementioned axis
across central/north-central Arkansas. Abundant surface heating
east of the axis has allowed for 2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop amid
an uncapped airmass, supporting deep convection. 2.1 inch PW
values are also supporting efficient rain rates within the
convection, while weak south-southeasterly steering flow aloft has
enabled slow storm motions and localized training. Rain rates
approaching 2 inches/hr have already been estimated in parts of
north-central Arkansas, which isn't surprising given the regime in
place to support heavy rain.

The ongoing scenario will evolve slowly today, with convection
continuing to expand northward and westward across the discussion
area today. Additional convective development across northeastern
Arkansas also appears likely. Areas of 3-4 inch rainfall totals
are expected, which will likely overwhelm low-lying/sensitive
areas and prompt flash flooding on and isolated to scattered
basis. This risk will likely persist through 22Z/5p central and
beyond, with convective coverage driven/modulated by the degree of heating/instability in the upstream airmass across the eastern
half of the discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8YIaDTTQNAXznO16YGvzw6lxt-8Y78isY3_puggJvnAgsTPd-2AUUKPZVym_p-XKJj8F= u_-t9EyCwgdR6bFTpUDOfro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...JAN...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... SHV...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38759486 38329259 37449070 35879018 33759115=20
33119204 33489375 35429434 36949479 38009547=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281705
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-282104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0267
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
104 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern/northeastern Louisiana,
western Mississippi, and far southeast Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281704Z - 282104Z

Summary...A band of convection was taking shape/increasing in
coverage along an axis from Monroe to Natchez. Isolated instances
of flash flooding are possible with this activity as it moves
slowly northward this afternoon.

Discussion...Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates were beginning to be
estimated per MRMS within a convective band extending from Monroe
to Natchez. These storms were in a distinctive warm-advection
environment, with southeasterly low-level flow maintaining both
upper 70s F dewpoints and 2+ inch PW values - both supporting
heavy rainfall. Destabilization east of the ongoing convective
band was also aiding in its intensification, while ascent
associated with a mid-level trough over Oklahoma was also
providing ascent for deep updrafts. Slow northward storm motions
and localized mergers/training will both contribute to areas of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates in a few spots through 19-20Z.

The rain rates were falling on areas of relatively high FFG, with
thresholds of 2.5-3 inch/hr noted across the discussion area. Any
flash flood potential in the discussion area should be isolated
and primarily tied to precipitation over sensitive/low-lying or
urbanized areas. Convection will likely be diurnally driven, and
may eventually be impacted by maturing convection over far
southern MS and expanding cold pool/stabilization processes -
especially in southern parts of the discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4z9cZ38byOwjuerr0q4JER0Kel9y8sSOjAFJkAdlZ-Sr-iRlmTpTGKuaPyaWA0NGTWhj= XPp7DnpCQjL6Ew8hs8HtGi0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33669021 32308969 31009136 32669228 33459195=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282110
FFGMPD
ORZ000-290230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0268
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
508 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...central OR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282107Z - 290230Z

Summary...Increasing thunderstorms coverage through the remainder
of the afternoon into the evening may lead to areas of flash
flooding across portions of central OR. Hourly rainfall over 1
inch is expected in a few locations along with 15-minutes rates of
0.25 to 0.75 inches. Total rainfall in a few locations may reach 2
inches.

Discussion...GOES West visible imagery showed the early stages of
convective development across southwestern ID into southeastern
OR, located north of an anomalous closed low centered over CA/NV.
Surface heating to the north of cloud cover over the southern
third of OR was contributing to decreasing convective inhibition
with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg via 20Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Shear
parameters were sufficient for storm organization with individual
cell motions forecast from the E to NE, while clusters should have
more of a SE to NW movement. Any supercell structures would have
the slowest motions at ~15 kt (with other cell types faster), but
the combination of potential mesocyclones and the anomalous
moisture (PWs of 0.8 to 1.1 in the pre-convective environment)
will support precipitation efficiency and locally higher rainfall
rates.

Water vapor imagery identified a northward advancing shortwave
spoke over northeastern NV, on the eastern side of the closed low,
advancing toward southeastern OR. As this feature approaches
through 00Z, increasing DPVA and diffluence aloft should increase
convective coverage over central OR with an organized region of showers/thunderstorms likely developing through 03Z. Embedded
hourly rainfall prior to and within the forecast convective
cluster are expected to surpass 1 inch but with 15-minute rates of
stronger cells in the 0.25 to 0.75 inch range. Given FFG across
much of OR, east of the Cascades, is only 1 to 1.5 inches in 1
hour (slightly lower/higher in various locations), some areas of
flash flooding will be possible as cell coverage and merger
potential increases through the evening. Due to fairly dry
antecedent conditions, flash flood potential will be most likely
across any urban areas or sensitive burn scar locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!88BI5Xzob7MxRvS0a25idYdXqE-cOwuq7lB0LOgElIXBl2sGfABzBF71XNlxVXetnUyq= PXGl_Rj_QaMCghUnUOQiV5o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...MFR...PDT...PQR...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 45561958 45491897 45301828 44891795 44201824=20
43431888 42752000 42392114 42322202 42432242=20
42682253 43092260 43512258 43962249 44472229=20
45092188 45212141 45472053=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282300
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0269
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...southern MO/northern AR to the Lower MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282258Z - 290455Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will continue to be
possible across portions of central to eastern AR, possibly
extending into southern MO, far southwestern TN and northwestern
MS. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and additional totals of 2
to 4 inches are expected through 05Z.

DISCUSSION...2230Z radar imagery across southeastern AR into
south-central MO showed an axis of slow moving thunderstorms with
an outflow boundary slowly edging eastward. Meanwhile,
thunderstorm activity has picked up over the past few hours from
northeastern AR, northward into southern MO. In addition to the
surface outflow boundary, larger scale low level convergence has
been contributing to a SSE to NNW axis of thunderstorms across AR,
with mean steering flow oriented parallel to the convergence axis
allowing for training of cells. Earlier hourly rainfall was 1 to
2+ inches with 6-hr MRMS estimates of 3 to 5 inches over portions
of northern AR. While the coverage of heavy rain has diminished
compared to earlier in the afternoon, a flash flood threat
remains.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed that 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
remained over the eastern half of AR into adjacent portions of
TN/MS. Aloft, a slow moving mid-level trough axis over western KS
into southeastern OK was favoring a divergent and diffluent flow
regime from MO/AR to the MS River.

While not as contiguous as earlier, low level convergence
(possibly fragmented sections) will continue to support localized
heavy rain across the region into the early overnight hours. The
primary and nearest term threat will exist across the northeastern
quadrant of AR where ongoing thunderstorm activity was in place.
Secondly, there is potential for increased low level convergence
to the north of a 925-850 mb low located over northeastern LA,
inferred via loops of visible satellite imagery, VAD wind data and
RAP analyses. This farther south flash flood threat is less
certain in occurrence, placement and timing, but may impact
eastern AR into the southeastern quadrant of the state and
northwestern MS after 00Z. As with locations in northeastern AR,
portions of southeastern AR have also received well above average
rainfall over the past week (200 to 600 percent of normal),
contributing to greater potential for runoff due to additional
heavy rain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6OkyWS4maAzPRRpDECelKxXgR0ZueCASmzfq5sFa1ifkC1UayacBZajSSejNDMixqn7q= KjZRvCS6bYw_-S8PoodmZD0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37389279 37369205 36689065 35638967 34928946=20
34038979 33419017 33009106 33139162 33849201=20
34669249 35379281 36049315 36899310=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290159
FFGMPD
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-290700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0270
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
958 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...northern OR into southern/southeastern WA and
northern ID

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290156Z - 290700Z

Summary...An isolated to widely scattered flash flood threat will
linger across northern OR into southern/southeastern WA and
northern ID over the next 3-5 hours. Potential will exist for peak
hourly rain of 1 to 1.5 inches and isolated totals up to 2 inches
through 07Z.

Discussion...GOES West infrared imagery and GLM data showed a SW
to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms advancing northwestward
across central to northern OR at 0145Z. Cells to the northeast of
this region across northern ID and western MT were more discrete
in nature but a few smaller clusters were beginning to form. While
instability had decreased across much of central OR, there
remained impressive MLCAPE from northern OR into eastern WA and
northern ID of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg according to the 00Z OTX RAOB
and recent SPC mesoanalysis (highest in the southern ID Panhandle,
south of I-90). PW values were also anomalously high at 0.9 to 1.2
inches over much of the region.

With sunset, the onset of nocturnal cooling at the surface is
expected to stabilize the low levels and reduce ongoing widely
scattered convective activity over western MT into portions of the
ID Panhandle. However, strong ascent ahead of a mid to upper-level
shortwave spoke advancing into southeastern OR (related to a large
closed low centered over CA/NV), will maintain areas of
thunderstorms as they continue to advance toward the north and
west within a broken axis. Embedded stronger cores within this
convective axis will be capable of producing 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain in an hour or two, resulting in isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding. This threat will be greatest where heavy rain
overlaps with urban locations, sensitive burn scars or otherwise
locally sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7wtmhWdR1qrm0Le6723KvtMvEqdLZ2gpzeoNRb5GleYP5qq5r1ENBHO-xHcBRxQAnk92= RkggVYsKppa9_VqPeus9l5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48651699 48421627 47831569 47021552 46101625=20
45171702 44861888 44682017 44032116 43992185=20
44402206 45452197 46742136 47912036 48511839=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291053
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-291452-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0271
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
652 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...northern Arkansas, southern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291052Z - 291452Z

Summary...Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms were
drifting slowly northward while producing locally heavy rainfall.=20
The combination of wet grounds from yesterday's rainfall and
locally sensitive terrain poses an isolated flash flood risk this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered convection was drifting north-northwestward
across the discussion area within a distinct warm-advection
regime. The convection was embedded in an environment
characterized by 1.8 inch PW values, 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, and
low-level confluence - supporting occasionally strong updrafts.=20
Most cells exhibited enough forward speed to keep rain rates at
around 1 inch/hr or lower, though a few spots where local
training/backbuilding has increased rain rates to near FFG --
particularly near Pope County/Russellville, AR over the past hour.
Occasional, yet isolated, flash flood potential will exist in
this regime in the near term.

Models suggest that ongoing activity will probably experience a
decreasing trend in convective coverage through the morning as
low-level flow/confluence decreases. Flash flood potential will
probably peak over the next couple hours, before decreasing
gradually through 14Z/9a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__nBIANuDzfKkZyT0i-iNXyOhKrlv6eY-yQC0EyjO2bBQO20_hGB-7ahnCHTf2RmnT2y= 05ztim2FXaNSILOVTvVMdlc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38579243 37529122 36189091 34869145 34369263=20
35729413 37539432 38489421=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291801
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0272
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...southern Missouri, much of Arkansas, western
Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291800Z - 300000Z

Summary...Afternoon heating has resulted in a recent increase in
convective coverage across the discussion area, with flash
flooding possible on an isolated basis.

Discussion...Surface heating across much of Arkansas and the
presence of modest ascent aloft associated with an overhead
mid-level trough has resulted in renewed development of
thunderstorm activity across the discussion area. The environment
supporting thunderstorm activity remains moist (1.7+ inch PW
values), with surface heating now fostering 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
- highest across Arkansas. Shear/steering flow aloft is weak,
resulting in slow-moving convection and locally heavy rain rates.=20
MRMS has already estimated spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates near
some storms. Additionally, rainfall was occurring in/near areas
that experienced heavy rain and flash flood impacts yesterday
between Little Rock and Harrison. FFG thresholds are low along
this axis, and may be readily exceeded at times given the
aforementioned regime.

Convective coverage will continue to expand gradually with time,
although eventually, widespread convective overturning should
result in a gradual lessening of convective (and flash flood) risk
toward evening/00Z. In the meantime, areas of flash flooding are
possible on at least an isolated basis.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8LRCiP-9W9fURQ-J9ksDi5qmMelq9TNwp_fGy2sbVpEbaMLub6mZoiemghWOSGwM6Gry= qkdKDZwMwAP03n-fGCLoPwk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...JAN...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38739267 38449204 37769007 36708922 35488906=20
33419095 33939255 34629341 36529399 38159422=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291816
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0273
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...portions of Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291815Z - 300015Z

Summary...Strong convection has focused along a subtle confluence
zone extending from Atlanta to Macon to Brunswick. Convection
along this axis is slow-moving, with heavy rainfall potentially
leading to a few instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Strong surface heating along a weak low-level
confluence zone from Atlanta to Macon to Brunswick has allowed for
strong thunderstorms to develop and intensify over the past couple
hours. The storms are in a very weakly sheared environment, with
2 inch PW values, 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and slow movement encouraging
local areas of 1.5+ inch/hr rain rates especially from Macon
southeastward. These rates were falling on areas of 2-2.5 inch/hr
FFG thresholds (locally lower near Atlanta and northwestern
Georgia). The overall regime supports areas of isolated instances
of flash flooding - especially in/near low-lying and sensitive
locales.

With time and as thunderstorms mature, convective coverage will
expand, with spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates becoming more common.=20
Flash flooding will also become more of a concern given the slow
storm movement and tendency for local mergers.=20

Much of this activity will be diurnally driven, with any weakening
trend of convection dictated by any 1) loss of surface insolation
and 2) degree of convective overturning/stabilization. Flash
flood potential will exist through 00Z/8p eastern on an isolated
to scattered basis.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8H_qwgSQlJffD4J_iFU1VooC1N3PcFsj1inwI--wTbOOaoxJbpPYzi3rXNB8wLKhiTU6= 9oFY5vSUWcwSXsH0whRxiow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34728483 34038364 33478230 32868147 31878111=20
30948145 30808229 31508430 32678510 34538545=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300111
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0274
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...northern MS into western TN and eastern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300107Z - 300700Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 07Z
from slow moving thunderstorms from western TN into northern MS
and far eastern AR. Potential for hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches
will exist.

DISCUSSION...01Z radar imagery across the Lower MS Valley showed
scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of I-40 from eastern AR
into western TN. Many of the cells were slow moving with peak
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) per MRMS
estimates. Water vapor imagery showed the activity was focused
near a smaller scale vorticity max over southwest TN, part of a
larger upper-level trough axis/closed low over the region, slowly
advancing east. The environment remained moist and unstable with
MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg and PWs of 1.8 to 2.1 inches via 00Z
SPC mesoanalysis data and neighboring sounding data.

Over the next few hours, areas of slow moving thunderstorms are
likely to continue given the remaining instability and upper level
forcing in place. Mean steering flow is rather weak, ~10 kt over
north-central MS and less than 10 kt along the AR/TN border, which
will allow for slow moving cells. Some modest nocturnal
strengthening of 850 mb winds is expected over northern MS through
06Z (10-15 kt), which may act to support backbuilding/upstream
development of any thunderstorms across the region. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches should be common with any thunderstorms,
but isolated hourly rainfall totals near 3 inches cannot be ruled
out, especially with any training.

While the occurrence of these high rain rates should remain
localized/isolated in coverage, there is enough of a concern to
highlight this potential for flash flooding over the region, which
is expected to continue through 07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ktb16KhUdN7stNy_wOCFChC9C3RYAJUp9XjJJ79bVtMg683Q5IJA-gdoeVqOl2wHnbm= 1cqQvt9dpVOZb67xtvABDco$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36448926 36278813 35478802 34218833 33358874=20
32908923 32858976 32929021 33149060 33369086=20
34019101 35049086 36018969=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300151
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-300730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0275
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
950 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...western GA into far eastern AL, eastern TN and
far western NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300149Z - 300730Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will linger across portions of
eastern AL/western GA into portions of the TN Valley and southern
Appalachians through 0730Z. Slow movement of cells will support
potential for localized hourly rainfall of 1 to 3+ inches.

Discussion...0130Z radar imagery showed a few lingering showers
and thunderstorms over west-central and northeastern GA with
MRMS-estimated hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches on a very isolated
basis. Much of central GA has been worked over by earlier
convection, reducing available instability and increasing low
level inhibition, limiting near term concerns for additional heavy
rain. However, the western portion of GA into eastern AL remained
unstable with ~1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE via 01Z SPC mesoanalysis
data with little to no inhibition. The approach of a mid to
upper-level trough from the west may provide forcing for the
development of additional showers/thunderstorms, possibly
increasing in the 03-06Z time frame. The reflection of the ongoing
ascent ahead of the upper trough was represented by a small
cluster of weakening thunderstorms over south-central AL as of
0130Z.

Farther north, radar imagery over the past 30 minutes has shown an
expansion in the coverage of showers/thunderstorms over eastern
TN. A relative max in MLCAPE resided over the region with 500-1500
J/kg via the 01Z SPC mesoanalysis. While shear was lacking for
storm organization, deeper layer mean winds were weak at less than
10 kt from the southwest which will allow for 1 to 2+ inch
rainfall (in excess of area FFG), especially where upstream
development occurs.

Moisture across the region was high with PWs ranging from 2.2
inches over south-central GA (near a stationary front) to 1.6
inches in eastern TN. Earlier observed gauge reports in portions
of GA showed 3 to 3.5 inches in an hour, a testament to the very
moist and efficient airmass in place over the region. The weak
steering flow over AL/GA/TN will be supportive of slow moving
cells with the potential for backbuilding/upstream development,
supportive of isolated 2+ in/hr rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_eq5lwqiNdKtOJDzPBGVgwcZ75ZIs_t_eMwu4KMYFIKmMus9vJkRqpejISF1SyKBDNjH= cNJ-gIZANzq3t31g5FCw2BE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...OHX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36478321 36288234 35778243 35488300 35288326=20
34938352 34408363 32978332 32228304 31658357=20
31608460 31818527 32288553 33138580 34108578=20
35028550 35798499 36398402=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300408
FFGMPD
MTZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0276
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1207 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Montana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300406Z - 300700Z

SUMMARY...A nearly stationary line of storms is producing 2.5
in/hour rainfall rates. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary line of storms caught on a trough
near a surface low over eastern Montana is producing rainfall
rates to 2 inches per hour on the county line between Valley and
Phillips Counties. The outflow boundary has pushed well east of
the storms, and should eventually work to cut off the inflow,
however due to the proximity of a low level jet, the storms have
been maintaining themselves just west of Glasgow. 1-hourly flash
flood guidance shows 1 hour amounts are between 1.25 and 1.5
inches in the area of the storms, so ongoing rainfall is exceeding
those amounts.

High-resolution guidance suggests that as the storms use up the
instability, which is over 1,500 J/kg in SBCAPE and near 2,000
J/kg in MUCAPE, the storms should detach from the trough, weaken,
and push north into Canada. It should be noted that the guidance
generally struggles with these kinds of mesoscale features. In
this case, given the evident outflow boundary outracing the storms
now by tens of miles, it appears likely that the storms' inflow
should soon be cut off, resulting in weakening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8q5Gd4lJX1JfxFZFqrpIuy-gyj2i10k8eeGy3LYXI8ki01aW-9iHW7TIQefqIL2hyJCd= V9f2iECWUgzPU4WtMaS_q8E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 49100644 49060599 48720571 48220575 47850617=20
47760666 47480704 47320718 47360770 47590787=20
47870780 48220782 48650781 49040772=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300924
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-301500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0277
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
523 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky to Eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300922Z - 301500Z

SUMMARY...Stationary front forcing a line of storms with erratic
cell motions but ample moisture. Localized flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front denoted by a substantial moisture
gradient is providing the forcing for a line of storms to form
from southern Kentucky through eastern Tennessee. Weak, but
nonetheless sufficient southwesterly flow into the front is
allowing the moisture (PWATs as high as 1.9 inches in western
Kentucky) to lift into the developing line of storms. Since they
are both slow-moving and being reinforced by the moisture
advection, expect the storms to persist for the next several hours
until daytime heating works to disrupt the flow into the front, as
well as introduce competing forcing from diurnal heating, cold
pools, and in some areas, topography. This will result in a
gradual diminishing of the storms associated with the front itself
by late morning. While the front is stationary, since the overall
flow into the front is stronger from the moist southwest side of
the front, expect some northeastward drifting of the line of
storms through the morning.

HREF 6-hr FFG exceedance probabilities show as high as a 40-45
percent in portions of south-central Kentucky, and another local
maximum in eastern Tennessee of 25-30 percent through 15Z. Cell
mergers northwest of Knoxville are already causing flash flooding,
and expect with chaotic flow along the front that additional cell
mergers will occur into southern Kentucky through the morning.
What few pieces of high-resolution guidance are resolving the line
of storms suggest that there will be rather rapid weakening of the
storms by late morning for the aforementioned reasons, which will
diminish the flash flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7BouVMkgsq46_v2WTmBJdvBssIRjr-o--KZT97NbklbeuD66C9VPViWmoU5GeWiqxAIN= 6xbFYMeR1AmgC56y8orme6A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37878610 37738537 37548494 37418409 37198318=20
36948243 36678187 36368205 36088271 35758336=20
35608382 35858436 36238504 36498571 36498579=20
36538581 36868663 37008689 37418701=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301540
FFGMPD
MTZ000-302138-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0278
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of Montana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301538Z - 302138Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage while
migrating toward central Montana. These trends will continue for
several hours, posing a risk of flash flooding through 21Z/2p
mountain time.

Discussion...Areas of surface heating have led to sufficient
destabilization (areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) for scattered
thunderstorm activity from west of Jordan to east of Billings and
eastward along the MT/WY border region. The storms were migrating
slowly westward at around 10-15 knots due to easterly steering
flow on the norther periphery of a distinct mid/upper low near
northeastern UT. Northeasterly low-level trajectories were aiding
in upslope/subtle orographic ascent across the discussion area,
while low 60s F dewpoints and 1+ inch PW values were supporting
heavy rainfall beneath persistent and locally backbuilding
convection. Rain rates were peaking at around 1 inch/hr per MRMS,
which 1) isn't surprising given the regime and 2) approaching FFG
thresholds especially closer to central Montana.

With time, continued insolation/destabilization within the
low-level upslope regime across eastern Montana will continue to
support a gradual expansion of convective coverage. Storms could
become numerous after 18Z/11a mountain time, with continued areas
of 1 inch/hr rates exceeding FFG especially across central
Montana. Lighter rain rates along I-90 west of Billings, along
I-15 through Helena and Great Falls, and across northern Montana
near Glasgow could also cause runoff issues given low FFG
thresholds in those areas. Flash flooding is expected in several
areas today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OW31X31s4WnAYzd8HPTbWxtzD6kqGAZA_JPLx9KvErdiNj4Ux8GgekJPeGr1w5wPOB2= 1Ajj29GfXVrFPFrHCpkAjoI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48991242 48970930 48820679 48040625 46830571=20
45710501 45040534 45000878 45041107 45531216=20
46821309 48731333=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302032
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0279
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302030Z - 310030Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorm clusters will continue to track east-southeast across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri
through early evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr may yield
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches, making isolated flash flooding
possible.

DISCUSSION...Animated satellite and regional radar imagery show an
expanding axis of convective clusters stretching across southeast
Kansas into southwest Missouri. These clusters have recently
exhibited rapidly cooling cloud tops, signaling robust updraft
strength and active vertical development. Supported by a pooling
moisture environment (PWATs climbing toward 1.4?1.6 inches) and
moderate diurnal destabilization, these storms are highly
efficient rainfall producers, with recent MRMS data estimating
localized rates of 1 to 2 in/hr.

The kinematic environment is characterized by weak mid-level
steering flow and small upwind propagation vectors, leading to
slow, grinding storm motions toward the east-southeast. While
high-resolution model guidance exhibits typical summer spatial
discrepancies, with the RRFS aggressively favoring 2 to 4 inch
localized pockets through 00Z and the HRRR taking a more
conservative 1 to 2 inch approach, the current observational trend
strongly supports the higher-end rainfall potential where cells
manage to cluster or briefly train.

Given the somewhat moist antecedent soil environment indicated by
recent NASA SPoRT soil moisture data, infiltration capacities are
moderately reduced. While a widespread event is not anticipated
due to the lack of strong synoptic forcing, these slow-moving 1 to
2 in/hr rates will be capable of producing isolated short-term
flash flooding, primarily concentrated across localized low-lying
areas, small creeks, and vulnerable urban intersections.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6fssWYIZLBkibj5b4UX5CVsTI0uo5AKNv1vlrjdUfAz9pK7ZKIwq_WrN4vsrUmOhG4e4= sEbK-j4fxEbRFdipxU57RGs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38109564 38099400 37739308 37159290 36769326=20
36699437 37169581 37769603=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302156
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-310355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0280
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Far Northwest Nebraska...Northeast
Wyoming...Western South Dakota...Central and Eastern Montana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 302155Z - 310355Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to expand and organize across portions of far northwest
Nebraska, northeast Wyoming, western South Dakota, and into
central/eastern Montana this evening. Fueled by highly anomalous
moisture and enhanced surface convergence along an elongated axis
of surface low pressure, rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr will be
capable of producing localized 2 to 3+ inch totals. Flash flooding
is likely, particularly across sensitive high-terrain basins.

DISCUSSION...Recent RAP mesoscale analysis and satellite imagery
depict a robust upper-level low centered over Wyoming, embedded
within an elongated trough stretching across the northern Rockies.
This low is projected to slowly lift northward through the evening
hours, providing widespread, deep-layer forcing and ascent.
Concurrently, a potent low-to-mid-level fetch is continuously
transporting a deeply anomalous moisture plume from the Central
Plains northwestward. Precipitable Water (PW) values within this
plume are exceptionally high for late May, running 2 to 3 standard
deviations above the climatological mean.

At the surface, the latest mesoscale guidance indicates the
organization of an elongated surface low pressure center
stretching from northeast Wyoming up through southeast and central
Montana. This feature is significantly enhancing low-level
convergence across the region. Along and east of this boundary, an
axis of moderate instability has materialized, with MLCAPE values
locally exceeding 1000 J/kg extending down into northeast Wyoming,
the Black Hills of western South Dakota, and far northwest
Nebraska.

Driven by this combination of deep synoptic lift, enhanced surface
convergence, and high moisture efficiency, broken to locally
organized convective clusters are expected to produce intense
hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr along this corridor. The
consensus of the latest high-resolution guidance, including the
18Z HREF, 18Z REFS, and recent RRFS runs, strongly favors
localized additional accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through the
late evening.

The 18Z HREF indicates areas of 40 to 60+ percent probabilities of
exceeding 3-hour Flash Flood Guidance (FFG), particularly across
central Montana and the Black Hills. Given some of the flashy
nature of the regional terrain and the high efficiency of these
convective cores, areas of rapid runoff are expected which will
tend to lead to at least some areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_7I_3W3cBH4sMFgh7FCFr6xlRXGPvPZy5pBUVynG0TWaOJz6oQA44_CoEtqXaSsqZUrI= 0uthYGrDFobxeObCh5ktqAo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...CYS...GGW...LBF...RIW...TFX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 49360786 48810655 47960486 45980291 45230218=20
43850163 42760206 42490315 42670366 43730460=20
44370529 44880727 44750918 45050999 45951047=20
47221004 48700989 49260913=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302300
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-310330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0281
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southeast Wyoming...Western
Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302259Z - 310330Z

SUMMARY...A north-south axis of locally training thunderstorms
along the intersection of the WY/CO/NE borders will continue to
produce rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr this evening. Localized
totals of 2 to 3+ inches are possible, which may lead to isolated
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Real-time satellite and radar observations depict a
highly organized, north-south oriented axis of convection slowly
advancing northeastward across the western High Plains. GOES-E IR
imagery shows a steady expansion of cooling convective tops,
indicative of robust, sustained updrafts. This activity is being
poorly handled by nearly all numerical model guidance but is
well-supported by observational trends. Water vapor imagery shows
strong mid-level forcing and ascent associated with an upper-level
low spinning over Wyoming and a southward extension of shortwave
energy ejecting out near the base of it.

At the surface, an enhanced leeside trough is interacting with a
strong instability gradient. Low-level easterly flow is actively
advecting moist and unstable air westward into an inverted trough
situated just north of a surface low over far northeast Colorado.
This focused low-level convergence is allowing cells to
continuously regenerate and locally train along the boundary. With
high moisture efficiency, these cells are producing
radar-estimated rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr.

Antecedent conditions across this portion of the High Plains are
notably dry, which will act as a significant mitigating factor
against flash flooding. However, given the persistence of the
convection and orientation relative to the steering flow,
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches are achievable through
mid-evening. Where these high rates persist over complex terrain
features or localized urban footprints, rapid runoff and isolated
flash flooding will remain possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!53QY7tuZ5YJ_a9aarJ3Roz32X6mVEyXkgYHYL8Phm4v7E-eYZyA-1ZaHPG4JwHYL2Gs5= nWWm-lDCTVHbqqBzbc-plc4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42880372 42680296 41900206 41160164 40330156=20
39740193 39320269 39160364 39350419 39750451=20
40650488 41200505 42040513 42630478 42860425=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310344
FFGMPD
SDZ000-310800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0282
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1142 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Northwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310342Z - 310800Z

SUMMARY... A drifting line of storms with a history of up to 4
inch/hour rain rates will continue to pose a diminishing flash
flooding threat as eastward motion slowly increases. Flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...A very slow moving nearly north-south aligned line of
storms across western South Dakota has a history of 4 inch/hour
rainfall rates. An impressive 40+ kt low level jet is advecting a
moist air mass with PWATs to 1.4 inches towards the northwest
ahead of the line, with instability values between 1,000 and 2,000
J/kg. This line formed along a nearly stationary trough. An area
of low pressure over Wyoming is causing westerly winds behind the
line, resulting in an area of enhanced convergence near the line,
allowing the storms to persist. MRMS data show that where the
heaviest amounts of fallen southeast of Rapid City, rainfall
amounts have doubled FFGs. Since the line is still moving slowly,
and the outflow continues to produce lighter, but still
significant rainfall west of the line back to the Wyoming/Montana
border, the flash flooding threat will persist in these areas for
the next several hours.

Hi-res CAMs guidance and radar imagery shows a second line of
storms moving northward at the southern end of the main line. This
second line of storms should work to gradually disrupt the main
line as it pushes north and cuts off the moisture inflow to the
downstream main line. This will promote a faster eastward
progression of the entire MCS, which should occur over the next 3
hours or so. That faster movement should allow for the overall
flash flooding threat to reduce much more rapidly, especially with
a lack of diurnal heating leading to a natural diminishing of the
instability east of the MCS, despite the impressive advection.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-wfWTOIlnUE-qcvcnZUI6xxozrQLwiED6ZRY9No1-Srqdg3K3aOfIsfrpNrvMZi5-T9T= DRyNleiOED3--X2SFZrrNp4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45710201 45680186 45660133 45550084 45200016=20
44679998 44100002 43930024 43670089 43500180=20
43450207 43560269 43750311 44080339 44470365=20
44930371 45550369 45670281=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310529
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-311000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0283
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas through Southwest iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310527Z - 311000Z

SUMMARY...Several areas of convection have developed from
northeastern Kansas through Southwestern Iowa. Backbuilding in
Kansas and nearly stationary movement in Iowa could lead to areas
of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Multiple lines of storms have formed from
north-central Kansas through Southwestern Iowa this evening.
Starting with Kansas, a nearly stationary line of storms has been
backbuilding into abundant moisture advection from the south.
These storms are producing rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour.
Due to the efficient backbuilding, any cells that advect off to
the northeast are quickly replaced with new ones, resulting in
effectively stationary storms. SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs to
around 1.5 inches with 850 mb winds advecting the moisture of
25-35 kts, which should support the storms for several more hours.

Meanwhile a separate line of storms has developed across the
southwestern corner of Iowa, and is expanding northwestward to
just north of Omaha. These storms are nearly stationary as well,
so hourly rainfall rates with those cells are also exceeding 2
inches. PWATs are higher here, around 1.7 inches.

High-resolution guidance are struggling to resolve these mesoscale
features, but there is decent agreement that the storms over
Kansas should begin to move eastward with time. Additional storms
are likely to form to the east of/in advance of these lines of
storms, resulting in multiple clusters of storms generally
following each other, resulting in an extended period of time of
heavy rainfall from Topeka through into Kansas City/St Joseph in
the next few hours. FFG values are generally around 1.5 inches/1
hr as a ballpark average, and with multiple cells across the area
now producing 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, the resulting flash
flooding threat is likely to continue.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5H42mv9rumMQqQrM-thxegRcP73RcyfinRsYmKbHVlgliqoROz5vwCwmZr_K2_b6CuoN= P6MPpUSNugnk_Dtddmeu_9U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42349576 41909502 41429477 40789441 40209410=20
39769398 38679432 38289493 38179557 38339712=20
38689831 39159894 39189906 39889915 41309820=20
42269683=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311218
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-311816-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0284
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of Georgia, extreme southern South
Carolina, and far northeastern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311216Z - 311816Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms are increasing in coverage
while producing spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates - especially just
south of Augusta. Flash flooding is likely on at least an
isolated basis through midday.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were gradually increasing in
coverage along a nearly-stationary front extending from near
Charleston, SC to Atlanta and Rome, GA. Along and ahead of this
front, areas of ~500 J/kg MLCAPE were evident via objective
analyses amid 1.7 inch PW values, supportive of deep convective
updrafts with efficient rain rates. Additionally, shear
throughout the lower troposphere was negligible (5-15 knots),
allowing for storms to focus along the aforementioned front
without moving much. As a result, areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
were noted with convection in far eastern Georgia, with additional
convection developing due to heating/destabilization along the
front. Flash flooding is expected on at least a localized basis
given the evolving regime.

Flash flood potential should continue through at least 18Z/2p
eastern today. The aforementioned front will move very little,
with any shifts in axes of heavy rainfall likely driven by local
convective influences and any mergers of cold pools that occur
through the morning. FFG thresholds are 2-3 inch/hr range
(locally lower in northern Georgia and in areas that received
ample rainfall yesterday closer to Athens and Eatonton). These
thresholds should be exceeded at times on at least an isolated
basis this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-0vak7R8vPZqf0dLA079QiilWDpf5KX_bGXWq9fhyg1VfEx0Y5IYQ0wwqT6DGwYRpakg= 6Xjt72FaRORF26zEfIoJ8Fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...HUN...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34578539 34428421 33748263 33098080 32348027=20
31388080 31508314 33378595 34328603=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311735
FFGMPD
MTZ000-312333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0285
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of Montana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311733Z - 312333Z

Summary...Flood/flash flood issues are expected on at least a
localized basis as several hours of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall continue across the region.

Discussion...Widespread areas of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall continue to migrate westward into central Montana on the
northern side of a distinct mid/upper low over northeastern
Wyoming. Precipitation is being supported by widespread ascent
tied to a mid-level trough across the discussion area and a
mid-level deformation zone extending from the mid-level low
west-northwestward across higher terrain of Montana into southern
Canada. Rain rates have been modest (generally around or less
than 0.20 inch/hr), though locally heavier rates have recently
developed (per MRMS) in/near Great Falls. More importantly,
ground conditions are water logged, FFGs are low/near zero, and
the local riverine situation seems to be more supportive of local
flooding compared to prior days (per collab. with the National
Water Center). Each of these factors support local flood/flash
flood potential on at least an isolated basis through in the near
term.

Models suggest that at least light to moderate rainfall should
continue areawide for the next several hours -- and perhaps into
the overnight timeframe across the most sensitive areas of
Montana. Flood/flash flood potential will also accommodate this
rainfall.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Gy0tlJ0z1XJOx44HXj-yFshiQ6syAjSDekIRqjlsQrBot4KXB2DsncG5Ne518rYcwMf= e6Qxev7rZjvZHKOJu6HD9fA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49021167 48830993 47900935 46940987 46091102=20
46901262 48091371 48881387=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311747
FFGMPD
MTZ000-312333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0285
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of Montana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311733Z - 312333Z

Summary...Flood/flash flood issues are expected on at least a
localized basis as several hours of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall continue across the region.

Discussion...Widespread areas of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall continue to migrate westward into central Montana on the
northern side of a distinct mid/upper low over northeastern
Wyoming. Precipitation is being supported by widespread ascent
tied to a mid-level trough across the discussion area and a
mid-level deformation zone extending from the mid-level low
west-northwestward across higher terrain of Montana into southern
Canada. Rain rates have been modest (generally around or less
than 0.20 inch/hr), though locally heavier rates have recently
developed (per MRMS) in/near Great Falls. More importantly, local
observations indicate increasing soil saturation and streamflows,
which will result in low to near-zero FFGs over the region and
increasing flood potential (per collab. with the National Water
Center). Each of these factors support local flood/flash flood
potential on at least an isolated basis in the near term.

Models suggest that at least light to moderate rainfall should
continue areawide for the next several hours -- and perhaps into
the overnight timeframe across the most sensitive areas of
Montana. Flood/flash flood potential will also accommodate this
rainfall.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!78Oeu6ZVGyJIqbExO0XVBIEjxLCTYX9-lwDsVuwybeJ3cgJsLeDrJDdu3bkfJo2YmLcg= a4PXtp7sIwLrvYqCALnSyoY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49021167 48830993 47900935 46940987 46091102=20
46901262 48091371 48881387=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311805
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-010003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0286
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...southern Georgia, far north Florida, far southern
South Carolina, and southeast Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311803Z - 010003Z

Summary...Several areas of local rain rates over 2 inch/hr are
occurring. Flash flooding is possible - especially where these
rain rates occur over low spots and/or sensitive ground conditions.

Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest along
and south of a nearly stationary front over central Georgia (near
Macon). South of the front, mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and prior
sunshine was supporting nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and areas of 2-2.1
inch PW values -- both supporting heavy rainfall rates within the
stronger and more persistent cells. Low to mid-tropospheric shear
is weak, supporting slow cell movement. Meanwhile, appreciable
upper flow (30 kt at 300 hPa) was supporting storm ventilation
while locally enhancing updraft strength. Isolated flash flood
potential is evident with these cells.

This potential should continue over the next several hours.=20
Pockets of strong insolation were still occurring away from deeper
convection. Meanwhile, slow and at times erratic storm motions
were noted with some cells, supporting occasional mergers. Spots
of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates can be expected at times. These rates
will occur over FFG thresholds that are generally in the 2.5-3.5
inch/hr range. This suggests that flash flood potential might
occur on a scattered basis, but may focus around
sensitive/low-lying locales that experience the heavier rates.=20
Flash flood potential should persist through at least 00Z/8p
eastern -- potentially beyond. Convection may also begin to
impact more of northern Florida through the afternoon as well (per
the HREF).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GZF5O5EKkRdorad7xDEgKw91tcFg4NFQ3bWHKx04wgGq6UQ-M5-ruhckF5ronFBQ7CM= PQKnPokyg78fKCTrJyR1JBk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33618703 33458539 33198421 32828261 32948103=20
32498020 31738092 30978121 30418137 30178350=20
30358578 30688696 31138731 31888711 32578728=20
33488741=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311905
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-010100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0287
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Northern Alabama...Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311903Z - 010100Z

SUMMARY...Convection is initiating and will expand in coverage
across northern Alabama and middle Tennessee through early this
evening. Efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr may yield
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches. Isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding is possible, particularly across the complex
terrain of the Cumberland Plateau.

DISCUSSION...Recent mesoscale analysis highlights a relatively
focused environment for heavy rainfall developing north of a
stationary boundary draped across the South and in close proximity
to an inverted trough that extends from northern Alabama through
middle Tennessee. A pronounced instability gradient features a
nose of 1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE extending northward near and just
west of the Cumberland Plateau. This instability is co-located
with a sharp moisture gradient, where Precipitable Water (PW)
values range from 1.5 to 1.75 inches over middle TN to near 2.0
inches across northern AL.

The lifting mechanisms to tap into this buoyant airmass are
multifaceted. The aforementioned inverted trough is currently
fostering localized low-level surface convergence. Concurrently, a
weak upstream shortwave translating across western Tennessee is
providing subtle but necessary mid-level ascent. As low-level flow
interacts with these features and is directed into the higher
terrain of the Cumberland Plateau, orographic ascent will further
enhance updraft development and sustainment.

The consensus of high-resolution guidance, including the recent
HRRR and RRFS solutions, suggests these anchored or slowly
propagating cells will be capable of depositing localized 2 to 4
inch rainfall totals through the early evening. The 12Z HREF
strongly supports this potential, highlighting 50 to 70 percent
probabilities for 1 to 2 in/hr rainfall rates. Given the flashy
nature of the local basins and a 20 to 40 percent probability of
exceeding 3-hour Flash Flood Guidance, isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible as coverage expands this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7fkueH4IbLNrn62hzDnSDzxqlNW9Aa7RkqPmvWvsHZILPgr8sRnggEiNJNyd1ynlCTOo= theNzRV6L5U-CDBYRf-rAh4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36688511 36578455 36098419 35528462 34858543=20
33898617 33748671 34018750 34798785 35648754=20
36198699 36488649 36648579=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 312248
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-010300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0288
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Southwest and West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312247Z - 010300Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of thunderstorms along and just east
of the dryline will continue through the evening. Some of the
stronger convective cores will continue to produce rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 in/hr, with some spotty 2 to 3+ inch totals possible
through this evening. Additional areas of mainly localized flash
flooding will continue to be possible, and particularly across
arroyos and low-water crossings.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery and recent radar
data coupled surface observations shows a few broken clusters of
convection already occurring over southwest Texas, with new
development noted farther north to the east of the dryline across
west Texas. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted across
the region, and while the PW environment is rather modest with PWs
generally near 1 inch, the cell-motions of the convection are very
slow given weak steering currents.

Some additional storms are expected over the next few hours
heading into the evening hours given expectations of some outflow
related boundary collisions which will likely foster new cells.
Cell development farther north along the dryline is expected as
well which is advertised by the 18Z HREF. The stronger convective
cores are expected to continue to produce rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches, hour with some storm totals by later this evening of up to
2 to 3 inches possible. This will be facilitated by the slow
cell-motions, but also a few occasional cell-mergers.

While the antecedent soils are dry, the regional topography
features rocky soils, locally steep terrain, and low-water
crossings that are highly sensitive to intense, short-duration
rainfall rates. Where these 1 to 2 in/hr rates persist over
vulnerable basins or urbanized areas, rapid runoff will occur,
making additional localized flash flooding possible through the
mid-to-late evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-pCKUs6n1qJLHQaZtlsykGyBjX_NW38rHcNHFwWjcq7FMxkTVF-eYrG6z0tyz_kbG8cf= CsOBGcGQzIVIAJEcsrDtCC8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34280100 34280035 33510021 31610195 29660229=20
29030328 29270406 29840467 30350498 31080464=20
32070369 32910286 33740197=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010053
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0289
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern North Dakota...Northern and
Eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010052Z - 010530Z

SUMMARY...An axis of convection moving through northern and
eastern SD up through southern and central ND will continue in a
broken fashion through the evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr
will be capable of producing localized 2 to 4 inch totals,
supporting a localized threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and recent satellite trends
depict an expanding axis of broken convection stretching from
eastern SD through central ND. This activity is pivoting northward
around the eastern periphery of a deep, elongated upper-level
trough centered over the northern High Plains. Deep-layer ascent
is being augmented by shortwave energy slotting up through the
Dakotas, placing the region under a corridor of favorable
divergent flow aloft.

At the surface, a frontal occlusion is slowly shifting eastward,
with a triple-point surface low analyzed along the border of far
northern SD and southern ND. Ahead of this boundary, a narrow
tongue of unstable air featuring MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg is
actively pooling. Stronger low-level convergence associated with
the triple-point low will act to concentrate convective
development over the next several hours out ahead of it. Given the
moisture availability and strong forcing, cells will be highly
efficient, with 18Z HREF guidance supporting rainfall rates of 1
to 2 in/hr.

As this system slowly wraps northward, localized training and
clustering of cells near the surface triple point could easily
yield localized 2 to 4 inch totals through midnight. While
antecedent soil conditions are generally capable of absorbing
initial rainfall, the high hourly rates and cell-training
potential may support at least localized flash flooding concerns.
This will especially be the case around any of the more sensitive
urban locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6LnPVaowbN3z3mBymNXP4qP9cW9IVj1J8epRQbgelo4JtTcPgXdtmn4tUo2dpxyCSbiw= XFXXu6lZ3YPK6MVQSDxD1Ac$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47950098 47559959 46589809 45349709 44369661=20
43829645 43289656 43089721 43429798 44419920=20
45530035 46670166 47480234 47880194=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010403
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-010800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0290
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...East Central Kansas to Western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010400Z - 010800Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed along a
stationary boundary in east central Kansas. With weak steering
flow and upscale growth, flash flooding is likely.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with additional isolated cells
around it has formed along a stationary boundary across east
central Kansas this evening. These storms are feeding off PWAT
values above 1.5 inches, extreme instability over 4,000 J/kg, and
a 10-20 kt flow at 850 providing moisture advection into the
storms. The result of all of these favorable ingredients is the
cluster of storms likely continuing to grow upscale, merging with
the individual cells around it, especially those to the west, and
gradual drifting east and southeast along the boundary as the
storms follow the best advection and instability. Corfidi Vectors
are 5-10 kts out of the west, which will support slow storm
motions, with cold pools supporting backbuilding. Recent heavy
rainfall in the area have lowered FFGs, with 1-hour values
averaging around 1.5 inches/hour. The storms that have formed in
the cluster have been producing 2-2.5 inch/hour rainfall rates,
suggesting that the FFGs will be a low threshold, easily exceeded
by many of the strongest storms. Flash flooding is likely.

CAMs guidance is understandably having a difficult time resolving
the storms. Many of them show clusters of storms forming, but how
widespread they get and where they go is in poor agreement. As
mentioned above, it seems likely that the storms will follow the
stationary boundary they formed along, which will take them mostly
south of Kansas City and likely north of Joplin, but right turns
to the south could bring Joplin into the flash flooding threat
later tonight. A second stationary boundary over central Missouri
could also support additional storm development over the next few
hours. Recent heavy rains east of Kansas City there as well will
also support flash flooding development. Due to the highly
favorable environment, significant flash flooding is possible,
especially in any flood prone, urban, and poor drainage areas.

The storms are likely to persist into Missouri through the
overnight, so an updated MPD for further east later tonight
appears probable.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ZtkUMv2NEJPPo8VPT_yR9bBncYAaPQRxqeskDkue4zDV47vSOcINMHnqpD63O4HdPRY= rrI4DFt3VYb8I2ZCveLHAa8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39379410 39379351 39239322 38569303 37789296=20
37349304 36879330 36859400 36919425 37009464=20
37139560 37539623 37589630 37989678 38519695=20
38799684 38969663 39209613 39229587 39279530=20
39329484=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010612
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-010900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0291
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern Iowa and Far Eastern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010611Z - 010900Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of slow-moving thunderstorms is approaching
the Omaha/Council Bluffs area from the north. The strongest cells
are producing rainfall rates approaching 3 inches/hour. Flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed over extreme
eastern Nebraska into western Iowa this morning. The storms
consist of slow-moving cells, some of which are training. The
storms are moving east-southeast, and could threaten portions of
the Council Bluffs area over the next hour, increasing the flash
flooding threat. FFGs are around 1.5 to 2 inches per hour, so
rainfall rates have been exceeding FFGs.

CAMs guidance has been struggling with this cluster of storms,
primarily that it's significantly north of the storms further
south towards Kansas City, and so should be cut off from the best
moisture advection. However, SPC Mesoanalysis shows MUCAPE values
ahead of these storms over 2,000 J/kg, and PWATs around 1.3
inches. Inflow into the storms is a paltry 5-10 kts out of the
south. While this will support the storms remaining slow-moving,
it's possible that the inflow will simply not be able to support
the storms remaining as strong and heavy-rain capable over the
next couple hours. This would follow with most of the CAMs,
suggesting this cluster of storms will weaken with time.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9J4REKnPneJM3qN2gFgQ7o3aJAJfj2rquLMf6mKlb_Rus5gsMEPGmwZlsyZsiJBDEfBq= qsWqyA1bAJimu7s84oUdnGc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42139570 41879523 41569476 41149408 40689375=20
40649413 40679547 41699647 42089623=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010802
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-011400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0292
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Much of Missouri into Southwestern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010800Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms over Missouri continue to
pose a flash flooding threat as they increase their eastward
motions across the state. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Impressive instability persists across much of
Missouri with over 3,000 J/kg of MLCape across western Missouri. A
sharp instability gradient roughly follows the Missouri/Illinois
border near St. Louis. SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs roughly around
1.5 inches over much of Missouri, albeit a bit less in the
southwestern corner of the state south of Joplin. This should be
sufficient moisture to allow the storms to persist, especially
given the ample instability the storms still have to work with.

The cluster of storms that stretches from Kansas City east between
I-70 to the south and US-36 to the north consists of multiple sets
of training cells. Fortunately, other than the Kansas City metro,
much of this area is rural, which should preclude much impactful
flash flooding. 1-hourly FFGs also increase to the east to up to
2.5 in/hr. Further, while the coverage of storms still supports a
flash flooding risk in that corridor of northern Missouri, the
individual cells are increasing their eastward forward speed. This
too should limit the flash flooding risk going forward. Meanwhile,
a new cluster of storms appears to be forming along the
Mississippi River, and appears likely to congeal into a line over
or near St. Louis. This will reintroduce an urban flash flooding
threat.

The CAMs continue to struggle with resolving all of the various
clusters of storms, but those that are showing some depiction of
the developing line of storms along the Mississippi River suggest
the storms will struggle to move east of the Mississippi River
into southern Illinois. While the instability will advect into
southern Illinois gradually with a southwesterly low-level jet,
that should mark the rough eastern edge of any flash flooding
threat, as any storms that progress too far into Illinois should
weaken with time as the instability rapidly drops to near zero

For southern Missouri, the flash flooding threat will be much more
conditional. The cluster of storms in the southeast corner of
Kansas has generally developed into a line oriented orthogonal to
the storms' motions. This should greatly reduce the flash flooding
threat they will pose as they move into southern Missouri.
Nevertheless, with a few urban centers such as Joplin and
Springfield ahead of this line, an isolated flash flooding threat
can't be ruled out.=20

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8S-LjbL-EkJoGRNEtrm9_mhMn_11r8SA6HN25XUH3CkTUBsSvo91sElKB-nRIgQFUp6E= MGmnXyRTxjTkLN4UeSMVNzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39739270 39689193 39729127 39489052 39108954=20
38598918 38108878 37598897 37208941 36949095=20
36749283 36819372 37009460 37039490 37069538=20
37119602 37859546 38019498 38329468 39019476=20
39659424=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011145
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-011700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0293
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Southern IL...Western KY...Western & Middle TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011145Z - 011700Z

SUMMARY...Repeat/Training thunderstorms expanding downstream of
matured MCS. Hourly rates up to 2" and totals of 2-3"=20
approaching FFG values, suggesting localized flash flooding is
possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E EIR, early visible imagery and regional RADAR
mosaic denote rapid cooling, convective initiation across western
KYy expanding into northwest TN downstream of the mature MS across
the central MS River Valley. GOES-E WV shows compact driving
shortwave behind the MCS over NW MO with complex moving into
broadening diffluent flow aloft. This remains supportive of broad
larger scale ascent, though cold pool generation is supporting
quicker southeast propagation.=20=20=20

VWP and RAP analysis still show veering WAA low level flow of
20-25kts across the MS Valley with slightly increasing downstream
convergence to support the convective initiation. MUCAPE values
of 2500-3000 J/kg remain slightly uncapped that this convergence
was sufficient and the instability corridor extends further
downstream into Western and Middle TN to suggest potential for
further expansion/maintenance of the new cells and approaching MCS
line. In addition to the confluence, the area downstream remains
a pool of enhanced low to mid-level moisture supporting 1.75" of
Total PWats, with CIRA LPW denoting even a narrow 700-500 mb axis
through W KY into Middle TN to help reduce some mid-cloud
evaporation. As such, common rates of 1.5-1.75" with occasional
2"/hr values with strongest updrafts will align favorably to
500-1000mb thickness pattern to support training/repeating
environment. The limiting factor is likely to be the increasing
forward propagation due to the cool pool/meso-high driving the MCS
convective line (as the MCS weakens...noting warming already
occurring in the main canopy).

Hydrologically, southern IL remains very dry, with 0-40cm soil
moisture at or below 25%, but soil conditions steadily moisten
toward the southeast into Middle TN reaching the 40s and 50+%
which is average to slightly above average per NASA SPoRT. As
such, FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 2-2.5"/3hrs exist across W KY
into Western and Middle TN; so there remains a low-end potential
for exceedance with the best repeating and totals of 2-3" through
mid-morning, suggesting a localized incident of flash flooding
remains possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ISqixdOeoJFRMptFgfoxx6dlD77eyKov1zHvLR3EvLUS6LGyJ8VP7IgUjhQoPL_fGeM= tYuJ8Ew5UrWpaCvsQFTuh3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38178881 37928803 36648708 36028667 35358687=20
35098735 35298814 35868864 36648928 37418964=20
37888955=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012048
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-020245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0294
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 PM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico... Southwest to West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012047Z - 020245Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving pulse convection developing over the complex
terrain of the region will produce heavy rainfall rates of 1 to
1.5 in/hr through the early to mid-evening hours. Localized
rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches may lead to isolated flash
flooding, particularly across southwest Texas.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and visible satellite trends
show an uptick in convective initiation across portions of
southeast New Mexico and southwest to west Texas. While the
primary dryline remains positioned well to the west, intense
surface heating has allowed for the development of localized
differential heating boundaries near the terrain. These
boundaries, working in tandem with orographic ascent along the
higher terrain, are providing sufficient lift to tap into pockets
of moderate instability with MLCAPE values ranging from 500 to
1500 J/kg.

The resulting convective mode is predominantly disorganized,
pulse-type thunderstorms given lackluster shear. However, the
prevailing kinematic environment features weak steering flow,
resulting in nearly stationary to very slow-moving cells. As a
result, these storms are capable on an isolated basis of producing
excessive rainfall totals. Real-time radar estimates indicate
these cells are locally producing rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr.

Recent high-resolution guidance, including the HREF and REFS,
supports the potential for localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches, with the highest concentration expected over the steeper
terrain of southwest Texas (totals will be slightly lower across
southeast NM and adjacent areas of west TX). Given the flashy
nature of the rocky soils, arroyos, and low-water crossings in
this region, the high-resolution ensembles show a 15 to 30 percent
probability of exceeding 3-hour Flash Flood Guidance.
Consequently, isolated instances of flash flooding will be
possible through the early-to-mid evening hours before the
boundary layer begins to stabilize.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Uih-T7g48vRmuvYL5KPaeXPj4T42fvMB0DOEKmhbznEp4xsu1GSW0aaO-2eJ9pikaFi= 23LB9Hx1CY0QEupTTuWuDfA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...EWX...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34450221 34060151 32630167 31450144 30350153=20
29730221 29390293 29560391 30230449 30620483=20
31210571 31930616 32700599 33510559 33750500=20
33510418 33700320=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012235
FFGMPD
FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-020430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0295
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Northern/Eastern Arkansas...Northeast Louisiana...Western/Central Mississippi...West-Central to
Southwest Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012234Z - 020430Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage
along and ahead of a southward-advancing outflow boundary complex
this evening. Training convection and localized cell mergers will
support torrential rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 in/hr. Localized
totals of 2 to 4 inches may lead to isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES-E visible satellite imagery and regional
radar mosaics depict a broad, complex corridor of active
convection spanning portions of the Mid-South. A sprawling outflow
boundary, originating from ongoing MCS activity over central
Alabama, extends westward across central Mississippi and arcs back northwestward into northern/eastern Arkansas. This boundary is
progressively sagging south and southwestward into a highly
unstable and moisture-rich airmass.

Latest SPC mesoscale analysis reveals a deeply primed warm sector
situated ahead (or in this case southwest) of this advancing
boundary, characterized by pooling MLCAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg and
deep tropical moisture with PWATs approaching 2.0 inches. Lift
along the primary outflow boundary will continue to sustain areas
of intense, back-building, and locally training convection.
Additionally, regional radars show new, discrete convective
development firing within the warm sector out ahead of the main
MCS clusters. As the primary boundary and associated line of
storms advance southward, they will overtake this pre-frontal
convection, leading to some cell mergers. These localized mergers
will act to enhance rainfall efficiency.

The 18Z high-resolution ensemble guidance (including the HREF and
REFS) supports this regional threat, indicating 10 to 30 percent
probabilities for 1-hour rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches and
exceeding localized Flash Flood Guidance across this broader
domain. Given the extreme instability, rainfall rates will
frequently reach 1.5 to 2.5 in/hr. Where cell mergers occur or
training convection anchors along the boundary, localized swaths
of 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This may overwhelm local
drainage and small streams, resulting in isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding through the evening. The more sensitive
urban locations may also see these impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_IbpUvgb5jIfxikqPFfBZdZJAlnSUoTINSDkQn_aVafGWK8EY-FLm3rMpEXFPShCUjSq= QTlM8VUB_HaIiHek34L11g0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...LZK...MEG...MOB...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36429298 36319185 35939108 35249035 34518974=20
33238876 32408733 31808667 30998705 30838856=20
31409075 32499209 34299323 35499367 36129357=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012326
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-020515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0296
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 PM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Southeast Wyoming...Southwest Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012324Z - 020515Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing discrete supercells are expected to undergo
upscale growth into a couple of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)
clusters this evening. Rainfall rates will increase as storms
consolidate, leading to localized 2 to 4+ inch totals. Isolated
flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...Real-time radar GOES-W IR satellite imagery across
the central High Plains reveals scattered, discrete supercells
ongoing from southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle
southward into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. This initial
convection is being driven by low-amplitude shortwave energy
ejecting eastward out of the Rockies, interacting with a
moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and highly sheared
environment.

Regional mesoanalysis indicates a south-to-southeast low-level jet
(LLJ) currently ramping up across the Plains. As this LLJ
strengthens to 30-40+ knots through the evening, it will maximize
low-level moisture convergence along a quasi-stationary front
draped across the region. This coupled with the available
instability pool should sustain the convective threat well into
the night with a gradual process of seeing merging/consolidating
supercells grow into a couple of evolving MCS clusters. This MCS
activity will then advance east out into the Plains with portions
of Nebraska and Kansas seeing the impacts deeper into the night.

Some localized backbuilding and cell-training concerns will exist
with the thunderstorms which will be capable of producing 1 to 2
inch/hour rainfall rates given the moistening low-level
environment and available instability. As the upscale MCS growth
takes place, some 2 to 4+ inch rainfall totals may materialize and
this is supported by an overall consensus of the latest hires
model guidance.

While the soils across the High Plains can generally absorb this
initial rainfall, the expected intense hourly rates and some
persistence of it with the cell-mergers and any cell-training may
locally overwhelm the infiltration capacities. Where the heavier
rainfall totals focus, there will be a concern for isolated areas
of flash flooding which will include some urban impact potential.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4R0Vo7-6acPP4UkvJ1n4DsfKLgy3koNRAqr_GkCEsTpC1QTtRvNT7SVi-HIXRp1QfrRs= JSbNzKMiVzRuLLF3RT4tqco$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42110415 42090320 41320212 40330081 39599946=20
38729824 37559827 37099907 37040017 37240135=20
37720238 38280298 38670378 38980430 39500456=20
40260456 41140487 41750481=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020433
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-020800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0297
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Western Mississippi into Northern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020432Z - 020800Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing in an unstable and highly
moist environment with weak steering flow may cause isolated
instances of flash flooding into western Mississippi and Northern
Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms have developed across portions of
western Mississippi and far southern Arkansas this morning. The
storms are in an environment characterized by PWATs around 1.75
inches, 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and flow in the lowest 400
mb of atmosphere that is light and variable, as evidenced in the
00Z Shreveport sounding. The storms in Mississippi have a hsitory
of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour. While that alone
does not exceed the hourly FFGs in the area around 2.5 inches per
hour, the very slow movement of the associated heavy rains could
find some areas seeing 1-2 hours of heavy rain, so the 3-hr FFGs
in the 3-4 inch range could be exceeded in places where the heavy
rain is most persistent.



Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UW7UTALyjFj6DrocfaVek0FD-UmfQVLDew5y6zoMT4DyUfho-htuVtAHWAvOdZ0PMjd= xG_x_10VayzTpCMA6uCP3Eo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33569003 33298984 32898981 32248976 31649021=20
31529091 31599176 31789239 32319291 32899322=20
33169322 33399283 33499187 33549138=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020435
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-020800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0297
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 AM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Western Mississippi into Northern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020432Z - 020800Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing in an unstable and highly
moist environment with weak steering flow may cause isolated
instances of flash flooding into western Mississippi and Northern
Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms have developed across portions of
western Mississippi and far southern Arkansas this morning. The
storms are in an environment characterized by PWATs around 1.75
inches, 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and flow in the lowest 400
mb of atmosphere that is light and variable, as evidenced in the
00Z Shreveport sounding. The storms in Mississippi have a history
of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour. While that alone
does not exceed the hourly FFGs in the area around 2.5 inches per
hour, the very slow movement of the associated heavy rains could
find some areas seeing 1-2 hours of heavy rain, so the 3-hr FFGs
in the 3-4 inch range could be exceeded in places where the heavy
rain is most persistent.

CAMs guidance has been struggling with the developing convection
in the area, particularly the HRRR. The RRFS depiction shows a
cluster of storms that appears most similar to the current radar
presentation. It suggests the storms will gradually drift south of
west with time, likely following the pocket of highest instability
in far northern Louisiana. This appears plausible as cold pools
and storm-created forcings will likely drive additional
development going forward. Moisture levels gradually increase with
decreasing latitude, so there will be no shortage of moisture for
the storms to work with, suggesting they will likely persist, as
instability too remains plenty high enough for the storms to be
sustained.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-l3jic8lPcqv8G7B7M2U5CpgfbvsL9pXuhKpM07DQgKnYw6mBOX-llI_47w2CEREyVNv= L__ozOafg18tkDv-9tLSYvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33569003 33298984 32898981 32248976 31649021=20
31529091 31599176 31789239 32319291 32899322=20
33169322 33399283 33499187 33549138=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021655
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-022245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0298
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1253 PM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...southeastern NM into western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021652Z - 022245Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected to form
through the afternoon across southeastern NM into western TX. Rain
rates of 1 to 2 inches in 30 to 60 minutes can be expected with a
few cells which may result in widely scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...1630Z visible imagery from GOES East showed mostly
clear skies beneath some high clouds across southeastern NM into
western TX. The exception was across the Sacramento Mountains with
early convective initiation ongoing over northern Otero County.
Moisture values have increased a few tenths of an inch compared to
24 hours ago as seen in blended TPW imagery with 1.0 to 1.1 inches
nosing in across southeastern NM as of 15Z.

Low level flow is forecast to back and increase in magnitude
slowly but steadily through the afternoon and early evening beyond
18Z across the southern High Plains with 850 mb winds forecast by
the RAP to reach 15-20 kt by 21Z. This will occur out ahead of an
eastward advancing mid to upper-level shortwave over southeastern
NM and as 850 mb ridging builds southward into OK and TX through
00Z. In addition, left-exit region divergence and diffluence from
an upper level jet max extending eastward across northwestern
Mexico is likely to boost larger scale ascent across the region.

Continued daytime heating is expected to lead to the
development/expansion of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with decreasing
inhibition (via RAP guidance) into the afternoon. Typical
development along the higher terrain is expected first, followed
by subsequent development on outflows and within the unstable
airmass. Standardized PW anomalies of +1 to +2 combined with slow
cell motions (deeper layer mean layer flow of 5 to 15 kt on
average) is expected to allow for some stronger/slower moving
cells to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in 30-60 minutes. Total
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be most common from thunderstorms
but localized totals of 2 to 3+ inches cannot be ruled out on an
isolated basis into early evening.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-i6Nnj5hC2iwpTSuBN1jkprDbFtX8OZEmyZa3o6pWF0LfMN0E-MkB8GsUd6CE_vTF35e= 5Q-ZOJShOyG7ryLbax4y74Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34320522 34160462 33760399 33110345 31350321=20
30270270 29710269 29230292 29050325 29060351=20
29270381 29490421 29700446 30200473 30650503=20
31140550 31480584 31840609 32700593 33530606=20
34260575=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021817
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0299
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021814Z - 030000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms may produce a few areas of
flash flooding across northeastern NM into southeastern CO and the
adjacent TX/OK Panhandles through 00Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches but with 15-30 minute rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches are likely.

DISCUSSION...18Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed a few
slow moving cells over northeastern NM with a pair of supercells
over southern San Miguel and northern Guadalupe counties, near a quasi-stationary frontal boundary. While shear for organized cells
was on the lower end of the spectrum, MLCAPE was estimated at
1000-2000 J/kg from northeastern NM into the southern TX Panhandle
(latest SPC mesoanalysis) with easterly low level flow aiding
convection via upslope lift. ~15 kt of flow was noted via VAD 850
mb wind plots at KAMA, KFDX and KLBB and these winds are expected
to continue through the remainder of the afternoon with local
enhancement due to outflow.

850-300 mb mean winds were ~10 to 15 kt from the south across the
southern High Plains with slower and "right" of the mean wind
motions forecast for right moving supercells. Aloft, there should
be some modest contribution from weak right-entrance region upper
jet forcing, focusing upper level divergence and diffluence across
the eastern CO/NM border into eastern NM.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue over the next several hours
with potential for outflow boundaries and storm mergers to result
in locally higher rates. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected but sub-hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30
minutes may contribute to flash flooding in a few locations as the
afternoon progresses.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4hotqj1fgLF0gcz7YHAuxQrxzHw94h5KotRqMXTxrMv3v-NFeZF7NbtoicErOU7oK68l= PY87NkLFKplgOK2GkxlaNcs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37730414 37490241 36020229 34560284 34280444=20
34340568 34310639 34700643 35230633 35730597=20
36360565 36590555 37100545 37430505=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021947
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0300
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Central ND...Western SD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021945Z - 030130Z

SUMMARY...Short-term repeating of 1.25-1.5"/hr rate cells may
result in streaks of 2-3" totals in a highly dynamic environment.=20
Dry soil conditions likely to limit coverage to those most intense
downdrafts; though a spot or two of localized flash flooding
remains possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV suite depicts a broad closed low along the Saskatchewan/Montana border with vigorous internal vorticity
centers embedded within it; with a strong jet streak/internal wave
starting to distort the wave more toward the southeast providing
solid downstream dPVA. Along the outer influence of the low is an
elongated 500mb wave rapidly moving northeast but along a tight
shear axis and nose of 70kt 300mb jet streak lifting north
centered at the MT/SD/ND corner. This helps to sharpen a
stationary frontal zone from far southeast Saskatchewan to KDIK
toward a developing surface wave northeast of KGCC, NW of W43 in
far NE WY. The strength and depth of moisture return east of the
boundary has brought mid to upper 50s and isolated low 60s Tds
through much of the area of concern, enough so to delineate an
effective dry line across far NE WY as well.

Strengthening moisture flux convergence along the boundary and the
broad scale ascent aloft has resulted in the initial convection at
the front in W ND back to northeast SD, which has kicked out an
initial outflow boundary. Though accelerated backed low level
flow around the Black Hills has helped in further moisture flux
convergence along/down-shear of the developing surface wave,
resulting in the strongest, most persistent convection so far this
afternoon. Backed low level moisture flux is helping to bring
total PWats into the 1.25-1.5" range and with 15-25kts of inflow
with further isallobaric influence is likely to increase rainfall efficiency/potential with time. Shortwave ridging as the jet
streak slides by (with right entrance ascent help) will further
back to support short-term deep layer fairly unidirectional
steering flow to allow for repeating/training along the front
before cold pools and height-falls help to forward propagate the front/convective line toward mid to late evening. Rates of
1.25-1.5"/hr and repeating may allow for streaks of 1.5-2.5"
totals to accumulate in NW SD into south-central ND.

Further south, the effective dryline accompanied by the exiting
jet streak as well as ideal southeasterly flow into the Black
Hills has supported mass convergence and similar shape/orientation
of the inflection denoted further northwest. As such, similar
cluster growth with repeating potential could exist across SW SD
into the Badlands through evening, spots of 1.5-2.5" may result as
well in the shortest term period.

As heating peaks and low-level jet increase, expansion of the
clusters into complexes may result further supporting increasing
rainfall efficiency toward 1.5"/hr with an occasional localized
uptick to 2" locally possible. By this time, forward propagation
may limit residency but spots of 1.5-3" will be possible,
particularly across north-central ND into northeast ND where
instability and moisture flux will be greatest after 00z.

The uncertainty toward incidents of flash flooding is the mixed
signals of naturally low FFG values across much of the area of
concern with 1-1.5"/hr and generally below 2.5"/3hr (though some
spots are as low as 1.5"/3hrs), juxtaposed by soil moisture values
generally ranging below 30% (though spots of 40+ exist along the northern/eastern ring of the Black Hills). The longer drought
should allow for uptake but the most intense (1.25-1.5"/hr) rates
likely limiting the overall coverage and an incident or two of
localized flash flooding through 01z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8tjltLOMJ4r2lZ8tWim7F16OyOh5GMnZyzjwzHEfbGEHESp-EZ75imAg-wfEhV6c9Qx7= 4v4DZwbOyL-Nt5IIO-5cWZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49049986 48939810 47499923 44170090 43190145=20
43030209 43030386 43360395 44010333 44690353=20
45200357 46230273 48320165 48980124=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022221
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0301
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
619 PM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Western TX Panhandle...Southeastern NM &
Adj.Portions of TX N Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022220Z - 030400Z

SUMMARY... Widely scattered incidents of flash flooding remaining
possible with cell mergers and/or repeating capable of quick
1-1.5" and localized additional 2"+ totals as clusters organized
into forward propagating complex.

DISCUSSION...Terrain focused initial convective development has
matured into a few clusters across the Southwest High Plains and
West TX Panhandle and is starting to organize while seeking out
remaining conditionally unstable air across southeast NM and along
the slowly sagging cold front from the Big Country of NW TX into
central Cap Rock. MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg are denoted
with a minimum running between across the core of the Permian
Basin, though values remain generally above 1000 J/kg. Though
moisture flux continues to increase in overall depth out of the
Pecos River Valley and along the front toward the maturing/growing
clusters. The northern complex remains a bit more linear but is
slowly sagging south to south-southeast along the
instability/moisture flux stream ahead of the front while the
southern instability stream rings the Dell Valley emerging from
the Sacramento and Hueco Ranges. Moisture has deepened
sufficiently to surge through the gap into the Rio Grande Valley
and points west in S NM allowing other lower ranges to increase in
convective activity over the last few hours as well.

Aloft, broad diffluence between a weak shortwave in northeast NM
and the main Southwest closed low in S AZ is providing increasing
divergence aloft in proximity of SE NM further aiding upscale
growth environment as the clusters seek out these instability
pockets. Strengthening low level flow toward sunset will further
help forward propagation to the east/southeast and promote cluster
mergers. Deep layer moisture of 1.25" (mainly driven below
700mb...noted by surface Tds in the low 60s) will allow for quick
efficient rainfall production with limited evaporative loss as the
clusters march east. These mergers will likely be the greatest
potential for sub-hourly 1.5" totals and may result in isolated to
scattered incidents of 2" totals and result in widely scattered
incident or two of rapid run-off and flash flooding conditions
through the early overnight period.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67KdieroNj6QVQ3LO7avwxKOocXQzWFYkRd2uNzMvDIx9TAi4XELcVX2kYo7ZVvUAlI0= wsuBz4EDJYfchBHPwJsJv4o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36430215 36170140 35360151 34790197 34160237=20
33180280 32120294 31330275 30820262 30230287=20
29870352 29940446 30410500 30750540 31480614=20
32700648 33190705 33600730 34140708 34910561=20
35320475 35730388 36130308=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022348
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0302
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 PM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern ND...North-central SD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022345Z - 030530Z

SUMMARY...Favorable repeating/training along pre-frontal
convergence trough poses risk of localized 2-3" totals and
localized flash flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible loop shows a deep layer confluence
axis, generally aligned with the deeper moisture/q-axis has
recently destabilized with numerous narrower updrafts expanding
along it. The elongated mid-level trough and associated dPVA
rapidly moved northeast across NW ND into southern Canada which as
resulted in the deep layer confluence from 925 to 700 to maximize
moisture flux convergence to overcome the weakening capping in the
region. This is generally in advance of the larger scale
height-falls and expanding right entrance region to strengthening
jet expected over the next 2-4 hours arriving from the west.=20

CIRA LPW and VWP shows shows enhanced 25-30kts of 850-700mb flow
with .5-.75" through both lower layers helping to reach near 1.5"
of Total PWat. The clearer skies east of the initial development
further helped with insolation and increase of MLCAPEs over 2000
to 2500 J/kg. As such, the strength/coverage of the updrafts
should continue to blossom over the next few hours and support
1.25-1.5"/hr rain rates, toward the base of the best deep layer
convergence in north central SD. The key toward flash flooding
will be the increased residency given the increase in overall
convective coverage, vertical moisture loading with stronger
updraft strength but most importantly the expected longer south to
north deep layer steering. 850-400mb mean flow is a bit east of
due north, but fairly parallel to the instability and low level
convergence axis. Combine this with expanding area of divergence
aloft into strengthening jet to the northwest and there are
increasing probabilities of localized residency of a few hours due
to repeating/training. This is greatest further north along the
ND/Canadian border where a few rounds of supercells have already
occurred and pre-wet the upper soil profiles.=20

Localize streets of 2-3" are possible which would locally exceed
the lower FFG values in the area. As such, the potential for
localized flash flooding remains possible through the remainder of
the evening into the early overnight period.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!62gv9KTMOBZUcBoohXmYVhiemsjf1BxkiSrXYbni1-n0Fv4MFutlyCsnw3ynnx1XDMr_= SU4Mzm3t3WXYEfrV86YfLYw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49049732 48919655 47789703 46749766 45579860=20
45190008 45670118 46560121 47730072 48909999=20
49039926=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030107
FFGMPD
SDZ000-WYZ000-030700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0303
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
906 PM EDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Southwest & Central SD...Far Northeast WY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030110Z - 030700Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for multiple rounds of intense
heavy rainfall, likely to cross already saturated/flooding ground
conditions. Localized flash flooding likely to continue through
early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E shows small/compact shortwave in NE WY along
the southeast periphery of the deep large scale closed low
centered over S Saskatchewan continuing to provide strong dPVA
ascent along/downstream across southwest SD helping to maintain a
few small clusters/developing convective complexes, while also
maintain isallobaric backed southeasterly flow to the developing
surface wave near KW43 west of the Black Hills. An effective
dryline bulge is starting to spread through the Black Hills with
Tds dropping into the 40s and so surface FGEN forcing has be able
to maintain/focus the upstream convective cluster across SW SD
while additional new development has been filling in along the
wedge from the surface low and north of the Hills but southeast of
the stationary front. As such, streamlines continue to suggest
effective moisture flux and base loading of moisture to support
1.5"/hr rates.

As the shortwave passes, the upper-level flow becomes increasingly
diffluent especially as the right entrance to the strengthening
jet over W ND expands toward 90-100kts by 04-06z later tonight.=20
As such, upscale maintenance of the developing convection into a
larger cluster with favorable orientation to WSW to SW steering
flow should allow for some short-term training as well as
repeating from the initial convective cluster that is starting to
bow across the Missouri River Valley. Mesoscale features suggest
some WAA, storm/meso-scale interaction between clusters that
should orient parallel to the mean flow across southwest to
south-central SDak tonight. However, proximity to mid-level
drying should help to generate some cold pools and mitigate
prolonged residency. Still, spots of 2-4" are probable and given
already lowered FFG (3hr values of 1-2.5"; west to east), it is
likely to exceed to maintain ongoing flash flooding, as well as
potentially expanding to other nearby locations downstream toward
central SD through the early overnight period.=20


Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9P4gsfHOulWX2hlChE2W6zqHbCqU6W9OYsIbVOB53JU-MEMOaEh9qQzJa-4O1660VAKk= XCbCwnjLEyRCoUzlvLGFBhw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45520161 45369920 45009819 43869808 43129887=20
43030022 43020158 43060302 43230349 43780356=20
44270373 44560470 44960402 45370320=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030408
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-030900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0304
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1207 AM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...West Texas and the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030406Z - 030900Z

SUMMARY...A slow-moving line of storms combined with cell-mergers
will continue producing widely scattered instances of flash
flooding through much of the overnight.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection consisting of several clusters
of very slow moving storms is drifting east towards the
north-south extension of the Texas border. In addition to slow and
chaotic cell motions of storms embedded within the line,
additional clusters of storms are forming east of the line. These
clusters have been both growing upscale and tracking northwestward
towards the line. Thus, cell-mergers, interactions between storms,
and continued slow movement will continue supporting extended
durations of heavy rainfall to 2 inches per hour for the next
several hours. PWATs ahead of the line range from 1.1 to 1.4
inches in SPC Mesoanalysis. Instability values range from between
2,000 and 3,000 J/kg across West Texas, which should also allow
the storms to persist as they move into that environment.
Near-term model guidance shows that instability will wane through
the overnight hours, which is typical, that waning will be slow,
with instability likely still around 1,000 J/kg by the wee hours
of the morning. FFGs are generally between 2 and 2.5 inches per
hour, and between 2.5 and 3 inches per 3 hours over the affected
area. While storms may struggle to reach those 1-hourly
thresholds, the slow movement suggests that the 3-hourly values
will be more attainable. Urban areas such as Amarillo and Lubbock
will each have a higher flash flooding threat, especially due to
the increasing probability that cell mergers will occur near or
over those cities over the next few hours.

CAMs guidance are in remarkably similar agreement that the line
will continue to drift east into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle, driven by a 20-25 kt southeasterly flow of moisture and
instability from out of central Texas. Since instability only
slowly diminishes, and there is a consistent feed of additional
moisture for the storms to feed on, it's likely overall storm
motions will be driven by the much smaller mesoscale or microscale
features such as cold pools.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7IwD0hCyBTrJ9oPtMwtnjMPweAseoLPXoJ13fiRoWQGGPABrW39Uq4mhif7sP_ytPL4o= A78oBUldJ89R876H2mEkhPY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36470257 36280141 35890100 35160101 33530101=20
32570105 32130137 32070209 32320240 32500307=20
32520364 32630380 32960412 33620410 34440393=20
35260361 36060343 36350314=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030531
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-031000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030530Z - 031000Z

SUMMARY...Training showers and thunderstorms continue across
northeastern North Dakota. Rates to 2 inches/hour could continue
with the strongest storms for another few hours, causing
additional instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A line of training thunderstorms has set up across
northeastern North Dakota this morning. The storms are the result
of a significant 25-35 kt low level jet at 850, advecting moisture
up to 1.4 inch PWATs into the line of storms. Instability remains
around 1,000 J/kg, which should allow the line of storms to at
least persist with similar intensity for the next few hours. The
entire complex of storms have been gradually translating
northeastward, but with significant backbuilding across central
North Dakota.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over north-central North
Dakota has a cold front draped to its south, with a trough to the
east. These features are helping anchor the storms over the area,
supporting the very slow movement of the entire complex, even
though individual cells are advecting northeastward. FFGs are
around 1.5-2 inches in central ND, lowering to between 1 and 1.5
inches per hour near the Minnesota border. This lowering near
Minnesota is the result of a widespread 2.5 inches of rain that
has fallen thus far into the northeast corner of ND. With
additional storms actively forming and advecting in that same
direction, it appears the area along I-29 from Grand Forks north
to the Canadian border appears at greatest risk for developing
additional flash flooding.

CAMs guidance is struggling with this feature. This is especially
true of all the guidance outside of the HRRR and RRFS. Thus,
focusing on those two models, they both suggest the storms will
hang on across this region through much of the rest of the
overnight hours, likely significantly weakening in intensity
towards morning. For this reason, the flash flooding threat should
remain elevated for the next few hours, then diminish with the
weakening rainfall rates.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4mvQmcXzGFe0iZTk7FR1pIWNf81fFreyQAiR7hxGMAcVsC-wG414Td3f7LVOH1GyasJx= k25Nwk8JtHO3zuqlziRKI-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49069869 49039628 47929679 47789739 47459900=20
47129960 46910007 46980076 47320117 48100099=20
48410013 48609956=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031527
FFGMPD
FLZ000-032125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0306
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1126 AM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...southeastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031525Z - 032125Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to produce mainly
an urban flash flood threat for portions of southern FL through
the late afternoon. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will be
likely with stronger cores but with high sub-hourly rates which
will allow for efficient runoff atop paved surfaces.

DISCUSSION...1515Z radar imagery across southern FL and the
offshore waters showed widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
with recent development south of FLL. These cells were occurring
near and south of a cold front which was gradually advancing south
across the south-central FL Peninsula. Surface dewpoints to the
south of the cold front were in the middle to upper 70s,
supporting high precipitable water values near 2 inches. OSPO ALPW
imagery showed that contributions to moisture were high at all
levels of the atmosphere and wet bulb zero heights were estimated
to be 13 to 14+ kft via the 12Z KEY and RAP analysis soundings,
supportive of efficient rainfall generation. MLCAPE was estimated
at 500-1500 J/kg over the southeastern and southern Peninsula with
weakening inhibition via surface heating through cloud cover (via
SPC mesoanalysis data).

As the base of a mid-level trough off of the southeastern U.S.
coast continues to dig southward, the cold front will maintain a
steady southward movement, possibly reaching Alligator Alley by
00Z. While low to mid-level winds are weak, and should not support
much in the way of organized cells, steering flow over southern FL
to the south of the cold front is also weak. Currently, deeper
layer mean winds are from the west at ~10 kt and are forecast to
weaken to closer to 5 kt while veering toward the north through
00Z.

Continued weakening inhibition with surface heating should lead to
the increased coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the next 3 hours. Cells should follow a general movement toward
the east to south with mergers and collisions supporting rain
rates of 1 to 1.5 inches in 15 minutes and 2 to 4+ inches in 1 to
2 hours. While coverage is expected to remain widely scattered,
these high rates will pose a risk of flash flooding should they
overlap with the urban southeastern FL corridor.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7FB3G6Ceb_1ALPOKJwothyXO4wZna0h-6TFEYKKLbTsLHW6pDaPrNDUGOIs3obx7llDm= E7kwgF6anR1Ia_a-yZdhE-w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27107997 26447980 25717986 25328013 25198059=20
25628070 26188056 27058045=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031732
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-032330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0307
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...NM/west TX into southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031730Z - 032330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible across a sizable portion of NM into far western TX and
southeastern AZ. Slow moving cells will have the potential to
produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in 30-60 minutes, with the flash
flood threat continuing into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible imagery at 17Z showed the early stages
of cumulus development across the higher terrain of the Colorado
Plateau into the Black Range and Sacramento Mountains. Skies were
mostly clear over the Southwest (except eastern NM) allowing for
surface heating and the expansion of instability. 17Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showed 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over
southwestern NM) but with varying degrees of convective inhibition
remaining. Blended TPW satellite imagery showed moisture was
similar to this time yesterday over the eastern third of NM but
higher for central NM into eastern AZ with standardized PW values
presently at +1 to +2 throughout the region.

Large scale forcing in the mid-levels showed NM was between a
northward departing shortwave along the northern NM/TX border and
a closed low west of the Baja Peninsula with weak shortwave
ridging in between the two disturbances. With a lack of larger
scale forcing in place, steering flow aloft was weak at less than
10 kt for most of NM into eastern AZ. Thunderstorms are expected
to form over the higher terrain over the next 1 to 2 hours with
subsequent development on storm induced outflows and within the
increasingly unstable airmass through the mid-afternoon.
Increasing coverage of cells and mergers will enhance rain rates
in a few locations with 1 to 2 inches in 30-60 minutes likely.
These rates will be especially problematic should they overlap
with sensitive burn scars or other locations with poor
infiltration, possibly leading to flash flooding on an isolated to
scattered basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4w7n4MR3qcvHGlcDItbro2FtLCAkH85NCfOeKdKU0xy2AzhpsTHQEZx37hVYfLxZMJ4e= ZEXkM1GVmzVnsShMzJbMT14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36930421 36700325 36300339 35220432 34230472=20
32790422 31030390 30170416 30040539 30530603=20
31110681 31260822 31220966 31551015 32501030=20
33421017 34000970 34480850 35610756 35990680=20
36800539=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031948
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0308
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Eastern Panhandle and Northwest
OK...Northeast TX Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031950Z - 040130Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for repeating/training of
thunderstorms; however, soil conditions will require this
prolonged duration, moderate to high intensity to result in
localized flash flooding, yet a spot or two remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is starting to expand across
the eastern quadrant of the older MCV from last night's convective
complex. That MCV is currently at the corner of CO/NM and OK
borders with a secondary smaller MCV near the Palo Duro Canyon
lifting northward along the weakly defined mid-level shear axis
that extends southeast across central TX. Further aloft, the
core of the upper-level ridge is over central OK allowing for
right entrance ascent and favorable outflow environment exiting to
the 60-70kt jet streak over E CO.=20=20

Surface to boundary level response shows strong directional
convergence with backed, moist flow with Tds in the low to mid 60s
across central OK, intersecting with southwesterly flow from a
fairly strong 2021mb meso-high along the NM/TX border north of
Clovis. Clear skies between the MCV features also has allow for
solid insolation with temps rising into the low to upper 80s from
SW KS into NW OK; supporting MLCAPEs to 2000 J/kg, increasing
further north into KS. So the combination of surface convergence,
solid vertical ascent capability and outflow aloft will maintain
convective activity along the northwest edge of the moisture axis
which will increases from just below 1.5: toward 1.7" into late
evening. This will encourage rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr.=20

Given placement of the MCVs, deep layer steering is also generally
weak and fairly unidirectional/confluent into the right entrance
of the jet streak in E CO. Given confluence/convergence axis is
fairly parallel to the mean flow, and strengthening upstream
inflow supportive of back-building should allow for some
repeating/training through the afternoon into evening period.=20
Propagation toward the east and northeast may disrupt ideal
repeating but at 5-10kts, it should deviate that much.

However, hydrologically, the area has naturally higher FFG but has
also been in a prolonged drought. NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture
values are in the single digits in many places, though portions of
SW KS have seen some relief with values back to near or just below
normal in the 40s; as such FFG values are high across TX/OK near
3-4"/hr; but are 1-2"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs in KS). Expected
rates are not so extreme to overwhelm infiltration, but localized
2-3" totals may become an issue more so in SW KS, though a few
towns in TX/OK may be intersected enough for an isolated instance
of flash flooding through evening, there as well.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_srI1y9f5mrwiNMPoOg9zFA7qW35X69uZEqh_l6vnDxbJRKQxuJvYQTvtSvY3-g4xFhR= R92wfYEN4Q0h_tB9rIpTVnI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38300019 38099912 37489860 36019897 35289977=20
35570066 37150188 38000165=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032029
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0309
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...South-central NEB...North-central KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032030Z - 040200Z

SUMMARY...Efficient convective clusters becoming oriented to mean
flow to support some repeating/training with slow east/southeast
propagation. Rates of 1.75-2"/hr and spots of 2-3.5" may result
in localized possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery depict an
expanding cluster of thunderstorms across south-central NEB,
generally orthogonal to the deep layer moisture axis and southerly
low-level jet. Total PWats of 1.5-1.7" mainly loaded below 700mb
per CIRA LPW advected on 15-20kts southerly flow is providing
solid moisture flux convergence. Additionally, initial
convection was placed favorably within broad cyclonic entrance
region to upper-level jet speed max (enhanced by early morning
convective complex in NM/OK/TX) continues to allow for upscale
enhancement with favorable divergence aloft. As such, individual
cells have cycled toward an increasingly west to east line (with
smaller faster moving cells on the north side of the initial cold
pool racing away). This has favorably oriented the expanding line
due to orthogonal moisture flux convergence. Full insolation
through the morning/afternoon provided ample unstable environment
with MLCAPEs to 2500 J/kg. As such, moisture loading is supporting
rates of 1.75-2"/hr rates.

Deep layer flow is generally weak with 15-20kts mean flow to the
northeast while propagation is similarly about 5kts
east/southeast. Visible imagery denotes further congestion of the
cu field along the southern edge that suggests a further southern
propagation is probable. Additional upstream development across N
central KS may further allow for mergers/intersection later this
evening near/along the border. Given slow motions, localized
2-3.5" totals are possible. The evolution and placement matches
the RRFS and Canadian GEM solutions (4"+) which are typically too
hot/intense overall, but the other solutions from the HRRR/ARWs
remained too capped compared to reality.=20

Hydrologically, the rates of up to 2"/hr and spots to 3.5"/3hrs
are in the vicinity of the FFG values in the region, but suggest
localized exceedance is sufficient for localized possible
incidents of flash flooding to occur through this evening as the
complex continues to evolve and slowly drift east and south with
time.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j2BIsz0zhDMn88Y5pTaICNgrf3DKVNoImZX6Q19qwgdPj6NEyTHxSc8Lld64E0GKWTa= O4eph6d_bVBm6qzb6Lv5bXA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41509767 41289702 40729672 40029682 39529713=20
39299767 39259857 39289957 39700009 40230014=20
40519986 40949940 41229860=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032317
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0310
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Eastern NM...Southeast AZ... Western
TX Panhandle...NW Northern TX Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032315Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Potential for widely scattered, highly localized
incidents of flash flooding continue through early overnight
period. Localized 1-1.5" sub-hourly to hourly rates.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts the core of the main
upper-low is lifting out of the Southwest into Eastern Colorado
with a great anti-cyclonically curved outflow jet aiding some
convection within northeast NM. In the wake, a broad baggy trough
still remains with a subtle shortwave features in proximity to El
Paso, Texas. As a result, moisture continues to remain/weakly
stream through the Middle Rio Grande Valley and across SW NM into
far southeast AZ. Enhanced low to mid-level moisture is about
1-1.2" across the area but given the modest lapse rates aloft,
still continue to provide ample conditionally unstable environment
for ongoing convection to seek out and help maintain subsequent
updrafts developing on the outflow/cold pools. Given the terrain,
a corral of convection across the portions of the Gila, Mogollan,
and Black Ranges are likely to intersect and merge with cells
lifting north out of SE AZ and northern Chihuahua. Tds in the
upper 40s, low 50s and total Pwats given remaining 1500-2000 J/kg
of CAPE, should provide vigor to support lower cloud moisture
loading to support quick burst rates of 1"; with any
intersections/mergers of updrafts potentially nearing 1.5" in 30
to 60 minutes. The widely scattered to isolated nature falling
over hard, limited soil types should result in localized high run
off and an isolated incident of flash flooding or two.

Further northeast...a secondary channel of enhanced low level
moisture flux across the Pecos River Valley/Permian Basin into the
High Plains of NM will increase to 20kts and bring total Pwats
back toward 1-1.25". However, greater heating and steeper lapse
rates, have supported slightly more unstable environment over E NM
with CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg available. Initial convection off the
southern Rockies is already starting to emerge along with outflow
off the Sacramento Range. This is likely to increase in
convective coverage and vigor capable of 1-1.5"/hr rates, but
forward propagation is likely going to limit localized totals to
similar values. This area has been recently hit with heavy
rainfall (including last evening) and while the environment is not
as conducive as last evening, repeating through similar areas
still has a solid possibility of widely scattered incident(s) of
flash flooding.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4H9WpYwPNBdy5hV37loTHPBhN6DZl_e2XyrLPyCo9uTLttNTFHkZMGeg_YCbQrhe0eSl= oEuF0eN0UUdPjsjiQnxSZKw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36590316 35450217 34780298 33540394 32690454=20
31200429 30410434 30370506 31170598 31300612=20
31590685 31600811 31530900 32160996 32970984=20
33170818 33550740 33950699 34660643 35060609=20
36060515 36530445=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040035
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0311
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
834 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...Southwest Minnesota...Ext.
Northwest Iowa...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040035Z - 040600Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage and orientation to the
flow suggest increasing potential for repeating cell tracks and
increasing rainfall efficiency to support 1.75"/hr and localized
streaks of 2-3" totals. Widely scattered incident or two of
localized flash flooding is possible through early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis continues to depict a surface
low along the Missouri River between KPIR and K9V9 with a region
of backed surface flow and enhanced moisture from northeast NE
into SE SD, including a stark 2-4 degree increase near/north of
HON/K6E5; additionally the cold front is starting to advance in
the last few hours. This localized maximum of low level moisture
was also between a convective cluster from the south and
approaching supercell canopy providing the last few hours of
insolation to maintain a pocket of enhanced conditionally unstable
air. VWP and low level observational trends denote an increase in
surface to boundary layer southerly flow through much of the area
of concern up to 15-25kts from sfc to 850mb, providing enhanced
flux and some WAA. MLCAPEs of 2000-2250 J/kg and Total PWats of
1.5-1.7" with the strength of flux suggests 1.5-1.75"/hr rates are
likely to become more common with broadening up/downdrafts cores.

Aloft, GOES-WV shows strong cirrus streaks indicative of the jet
streak across northeast SD into SW ND/NW MN. This is expected to
further strengthen to 100kts after sunset placing much of the MPD
area of concern into favorable right entrance ascent region
allowing for upscale growth into a broader complex. Regional
RADAR denotes this increase in activity east/downstream of the
supercell in Tripp county; as well as the increasing dewpoint line
from Spink to Deuel counties. Overall, deep layer steering is
also increasing with the aforementioned jet strengthening, likely
to limit any particular cell's residency except right-mover
supercells. The concern is that the expansion of development is
generally parallel to the deep mean flow, suggestive of increasing
potential for repeating/training. As such, streaks of 2-3" totals
across these two west to east axes will have the greatest
potential of exceeding the 1-3hr FFG values in the region and
present a localized flash flooding incident or two possibly
through the early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9RP-snRGpfAFL3bnOLJi7ecZo8VbbK3G_XLyPKLnn9tV7f64pD6js45zlOGfj_ynUfSw= EA_Q_mVI3lQV8wjqv0X2T_8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...MPX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45739710 45729615 45509504 45009436 44059454=20
43369536 43059684 43019877 43319989 44409979=20
45409795=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040108
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-040555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0312
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
907 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...North Central Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040110Z - 040555Z

SUMMARY...Colliding outflow boundaries to continue potential for
localized flash flooding risk through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and surface analysis depict a
pair of active outflow boundaries likely to intersect over the
next hour or two across portions of central KS. The north to
south oriented line from Rush county south into Barber and
northern Oklahoma appears to be rapidly weakening as the leading
convergence is starting to weaken as cells continue to back shear
though with some south to north slow training. The northern one
is arched from near Beatrice, Neb across north-central KS from
Washington to Ottawa before flattening to the west into northern
Graham county. Deep southeasterly surface to 850 flow still
intersects this line fairly orthogonally but also appears to be
balancing out as the core of the meso-high remains north toward Kearney/Hastings region in NEB.=20

At this time, strong convergence is starting to occur as the
outflows zipper from NW to ESE north of I-70. DPVA from the
parent shortwave in SW KS is starting to slack and right entrance
influence to the jet over E CO is starting to slip north and east,
this will continue to veer the LLJ over the coming hours further
reducing convergence with the north-south boundary in favor of the
west-east. Effective warm sector still has upper 60s and even a
few low 70s Tds and solid enough remaining 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE to advect to maintain/support the ongoing convection.=20
Eventually, the western cold pool should sever the connection but
in the mean time, with rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr and near 5kts of
forward propagation, nearly stationary elements of the
over-running convection will have the potential for spots of 2-4"
totals that may result in possible localized flash flooding
incident or two.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5uW_4gKfazqzv20GWUKhOowNnWjtLPkHAS724hM3qSKeXTBLMnwk9msdDraEhIB-QRnP= 1Q5MS4zRh49y9-zNd2AT_WU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40339924 39939731 39379678 38749712 38509785=20
38459891 38499989 39170042 40080074=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040228
FFGMPD
FLZ000-040725-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0313
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1026 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040226Z - 040725Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall and urban flash flooding will be a
concern over the next several hours across southeast FL, including
the Miami metropolitan area, as concerns for training showers and
thunderstorms persist.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery and surface observations
show an axis of training showers and thunderstorms impacting
northern portions of Miami-Dade County. This convection is aligned
with the low-level flow and a small-scale axis of focused moisture
convergence in close proximity to a stationary front draped over
far southern FL.

MLCAPE values are generally near 500 J/kg, but the PWs are very
high with the 00Z RAOB from KMFL indicating a PW of 2.13 inches
and a deep moist vertical column that is highly tropical with WBZ
heights of over 14,000 feet. As it is, much of the ongoing
convection is rather shallow and extremely efficient with a
sizable component of the forcing seen in the warm cloud region of
the low and mid-levels of the column.

Warm rain processes are dominating the ongoing rainfall, with
extreme rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ inches/hour ongoing. A consensus
of the latest HRRR and RRFS solutions support an area of focused
convergence tending to maintain itself in the near-term across
southeast FL near this front, and they support additional rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches locally.

Already the northern suburbs of the Miami metropolitan area are
seeing flash flooding due to the extreme rainfall rates, and with
the overall band of convection gradually losing latitude and
settling down through the highly urbanized Miami-Dade County
corridor near I-95, additional urban flash flooding concerns are a
significant concern.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8L7odpWvV7VpMLVDTsPESSqgKBNJ45IcJA4IJ16mUzVdT2yYnwovUfcJWlWfYmIoeoyA= aAg93UlIEtwRRXM8rRZrpy8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26138033 26098012 25978006 25718009 25488019=20
25328035 25338059 25518074 25828068 26008058=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040530
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-041125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0314
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...West
Texas...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...Southwest Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040529Z - 041125Z

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms gradually advancing east
across the southern High Plains will continue to produce localized
heavy rainfall overnight. A generally isolated threat for flash
flooding will continue given rainfall rates locally as high as 1.0
to 1.5 inches/hour.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery shows a broken
axis of thunderstorms still impacting areas of southern and
eastern New Mexico and extending northeastward up toward the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Pockets of ascent
continue to be maintained by the presence of multiple embedded
mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) rotating through the base of
a broad upper trough over the southern Rockies and adjacent High
Plains.

Ahead of the broken areas of convection are pockets of MUCAPE
reaching as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with the latest RAP
analysis showing the greatest instability generally over southeast
New Mexico with somewhat lesser values noted elsewhere over the
southern High Plains. Meanwhile, the PWs are locally as high as
1.0 to 1.25 inches, and with the instability, there are some areas
of thunderstorms producing rainfall rates of up to 1.0 to 1.5
inches/hour.

The latest hires guidance continues to support a broken axis of
convection gradually advancing east or northeastward overnight
through portions of the southern High Plains, with some additional
rainfall totals reaching 2 to 3 inches locally. The latest HREF
and REFS guidance still supports some 20 to 30 percent
probabilities of exceeding the 3-hour FFG.

Therefore, given the current convective trends and level of
instability that is still in place along with the MCV activity, an
isolated threat for areas of flash flooding should continue
overnight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Cmi_CWn-FsNX7x6QcJt8Lx-SGKHureEmvd9NG7gjN0wUG5m9jVhcaw3SjcSi_RlKsEv= 0pwVkY8YNvXqzk1m4vBlYt4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...EPZ...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37700102 37669994 36589968 34710054 33100181=20
32000271 30740332 30390452 30830572 31320633=20
31960661 32440648 32880602 33300533 34120430=20
34760344 35570262 36480199=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041521
FFGMPD
FLZ000-042115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0315
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected...southeastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041519Z - 042115Z

SUMMARY...There will be the potential for flash flooding across
mainly the urban corridor of southeastern FL through 21Z.
Localized slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be capable of
producing 2 to 3+ inches of rain in an hour but with 1+ inches in
15 minutes.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 15Z showed a few narrow
streamers of low level convergence into southeastern FL with two
located over Biscayne Bay becoming more active with shower
development over the past hour. While a cold/stationary front was
analyzed south of the Keys at 15Z, it was shallow, with deep
moisture of ~2.0 to 2.2 inches as far north as Broward County.
MLCAPE was estimated via 15Z SPC mesoanalysis data to range from
500-1500 J/kg over Miami-Dade and Broward counties with little to
no CIN. ENE winds of 10-15 kt in the surface to 0-1 km layer. as
seen in VAD wind data from KAMX and RAP analysis soundings over
southeastern FL, shifted to largely light and variable from about
1 km AGL to 8 km AGL, resulting in a mean steering flow of ~5 kt
or less over the region.

Expectations are for additional shower/thunderstorm development
into the afternoon, but with model forecasts showing some
semblance of low level drying in the 18-00Z time frame from the
north, the threat for heavy rain is likely to wane toward 00Z.
While any additional cells that form through the afternoon should
remain disorganized due to a lack of shear, they should also be
slow moving, contingent upon the south/north shifting of the low
level axes of convergence.

Recognizing the environment in place, slow movement will allow for
efficient rainfall production and heavy rain of 1+ inches in 15
minutes along with 2 to 3+ inches per hour. These higher rates are
likely to remain isolated in nature but should they overlap with
the urban corridor of Broward and Miami-Dade counties, rapid
runoff is expected to lead to flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Xt2NKH67_6KNH9bxvJdOaETurBbM2d2qIr7VASjZdM0VphI65uGPghvQzhALxAgdd4l= NmOBMHaWa1uFYsAPW8yjXBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26377999 25557990 25228027 25208060 25388076=20
26278060=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041812
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0316
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS/southeastern NE into northwestern
MO and central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041810Z - 050000Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
northeastern KS/southeastern NE into northwestern MO and central
IA through 00Z. Areas of training thunderstorms are expected to
result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches with potential for a
few 3 to 4+ inch totals through 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery at 1745Z showed a
mid-level vorticity max centered near the central KS/NE border,
moving toward the northeast. Visible and area radar imagery helped
identify a pair of MCVs, one over central KS near HYS and a second
in eastern NE near JYR. A remnant outflow boundary from early
morning convection was analyzed from west-central KS into
southeastern NE and west-central IA with recent thunderstorm
development along the boundary in southeastern NE. Additional
storms were noted within a zone of low level confluence over
east-central KS, aligning from south to north. Daytime heating
near and south of the outflow has helped contribute to MLCAPE of
500 to 1500+ J/kg (highest over northeastern KS) among PWs of 1.5
to 1.8 inches (via SPC mesoanalysis). Aloft, the right entrance
region of a jet max centered over MN was focused across the middle
to lower MO Valley, which should aid in overall ascent given only
a slow northeastward departure of the entire jet max.

Over the next 3-6 hours, as the main vorticity max and embedded
MCVs advance downstream, thunderstorm coverage should expand over
northeastern KS/southeastern NE initially...eventually extending
into far northwestern MO and west-central IA. SW to NE steering
flow aligned with the remnant outflow boundary and expected axis
of thunderstorms will support areas of training as a local
southerly max of 20-30 kt at 850 mb supports a relative max in
moisture transport from eastern KS into southeastern NE. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches should be expected within areas of
training with the potential for a couple of locations to pick up 2
to 4+ inches through 00Z. Flash flood guidance is near or less
than 2 inches in 3 hours for a majority of the region outlooked
from northeastern KS into southeastern NE/western IA. Therefore,
localized to scattered areas of flash flooding are anticipated
into the early evening.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ywpulN7hf51ZrHsg6_YV_oEnYmR3Ts-BB51_yY8HF8hrmOK5ZcaODZajt20LbU4EBtg= -sTmI_85WX1st1BVdu5qlRo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42599348 41899300 40499412 39349542 38619631=20
38079688 38109742 38729807 38989865 39549875=20
40529737 41599596 42459457=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041840
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-050035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0317
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected... NM into portions of west TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041837Z - 050035Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms may produce a couple of
isolated areas of flash flooding through the late afternoon from
southwestern NM into portions of west TX. Hourly rainfall of 1 to
2 inches is expected.

DISCUSSION...1830Z visible imagery showed a number of mesoscale
circulations embedded within a broader scale mid-level shear axis
which extended from the TX Panhandle into southwestern NM. While
some remnant mid and high level clouds remained over the region,
strong solar insolation was occurring elsewhere with MLCAPE
increasing. 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed 500 to 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE from southwestern to southeastern NM into parts of west TX
to the west of the Pecos River.

Continued heating should allow for some increase and expansion of
the existing instability over the region through the remainder of
the afternoon. Similar to previous days, steering currents aloft
are weak which should result in disorganized but slow moving
cells. One difference compared to previous days this week is the
added component of an upper jet max located to the ESE of a closed
low over northwestern Mexico, with its left-exit ascent region
located over western TX into southeastern NM. Coverage of
thunderstorms into the afternoon is expected to remain widely
scattered but slow movement and anomalous moisture (+1 to +2
standardized anomalies for PW) may allow for areas of isolated
flash flooding through 01Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Dudq0lFBwkYSybzewnKiPAkNMaS7vszRj_IVjoUUCvvpQ5t_rXiYqiPcM7Bd74ZFkMg= oFwQXzvOXohI2fpoz_ADwEg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34640320 34620266 34310214 33860195 33140207=20
32020295 30400289 29630362 29690448 30200530=20
30820593 31210659 31240746 31050861 31260885=20
31930889 32750856 33350752 33830609 34310449=20
34470360=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042319
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0318
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Far Southeast NEB...Northwest
MO...Southern to East-Central IA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042320Z - 050500Z

SUMMARY...Southwest to northeast repeating thunderstorms result in
streaks of 2-4" totals and continue risk of localized flash
flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW suite depicts core of warm conveyor belt
returning along northwest edge of deep layer ridge in the
southeast, resulting in core of 1.75-2" Total PWat stretching from
E KS across IA into W WI; with each layer in the 95th-99th
percentile with higher percentiles in the lower layers (Tds in the
upper 60s and lower 70s). Current complex along the axis is
being forced by an old shortwave from the southwest that is
starting to open back up in a broader wave in the 925-850mb layer;
though mid to upper level dPVA and right entrance ascent patterns
continue to maintain a weak linear convective complex.

This is mostly given the limitations of the vertical heating and
lack of general instability, with values across IA dipping below
1000 J/kg which is sufficient to maintain moderate convection in
the overall dynamic ascent; especially given deep layer flow is
unidirectional through steering and quite favorable for
repeating/training profiles. Upstream, however, clearer skies over
E KS has MLCAPE pool of 2000 J/kg advecting into the confluent
upstream edge of the exiting shortwave. As such, favorable
back-building is starting to become more evident in the congested
low level cu/TCu filed in NE KS (before stronger CBs are seen
nearer the NEB border counties attm. Stronger northern stream
influences (digging approaching trough) will further help
strengthen the LLJ toward diurnal maximum to further enhance
moisture flux convergence and rainfall efficiency.

As such, the upwind edge will continue to see scattered
1.75-2"+/hr rates, with some training capability into NE MO and
southern IA through the early evening. Streaks of 2-4" are
possible (greater upstream), but longer duration of training due
to weaker cold pool and reduced height-falls/influence from the
northern stream will allow for slower eastward propagation further
northeast into central and eastern IA where the instability is
less. As such, the risk for localized flash flooding will remain
possible through early overnight period.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5UeQ4so_ouJR-rY5IMYfacQZgFt9FIGNm8Lg0klbnzmw6Kji1Qj8M8lmgkEYVrGlWSzv= 0aCHqZwqaUkAgrPlWGENZcw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42619225 42329136 41669151 40659230 39489380=20
38679527 38119687 38229791 38869799 39759742=20
40359683 41299580 42039454 42449337=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050056
FFGMPD
SDZ000-050600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0319
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected...Central to Eastern South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050055Z - 050600Z

SUMMARY...Expanding cluster over areas saturated last evening,
before approach of main shortwave/convective line after dark.=20
Spots of 2-3" over wet grounds pose localized flash flooding
issue.

DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis denotes a surface wave southeast
of Pierre with stationary front extending northeast generally connected/influence by a fast moving mid-level shortwave crossing
into NW MN; while the upstream portion of the front angles more
westward into SW SD before the approach of the main
height-falls/shortwave that is directing fast moving
stronger/severe thunderstorms out of the Black Hills. As such,
surface to boundary layer flow has backed and increased with a
pocket of enhanced low level moisture with Tds in the mid to upper
60s and pool of 1.25-1.5" total PWats continue to flux/converge to
increase rainfall efficiency. RAP analysis shows pool of
conditionally unstable (but weakly capped) MLCAPE of 2000-2500
J/kg along the front into central SD. The overall convergence
with initial weakening convection/outflow impinging on the front
resulted in rapid convective development with 10.3um EIR tops
cooling past -65C across Hand into Beadle county. Given this
rates of 1.5"/hr will steadily increase to 2"/hr with time.

RADAR and EIR show further downstream convective development
expanding the overall width of the downdrafts increasing residency
time in the generally west to east flow; with an additional round
still upstream. Combine this will traversing areas hit overnight
yesterday and lighter/moderate activity this afternoon. A line of
additional 2-3" total (in areas of 2-4") should be harder to
infiltrate and result in increased run-off and potential for
inducing localized flash flooding.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8QUJ94XzyfmDue1lfud9wRJ54MDoa67Xo20LhYONKbXzbEYtgiVZ1ima0qS-5UsgAAmS= UauIRtD0yPitDWHmx3I22Vo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45099748 44949668 44569647 44079679 43669791=20
43479872 43419914 43310029 43330103 43560137=20
44020126 44550013 44719964 45019894=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050124
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0320
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
923 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Areas affected...Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050125Z - 050700Z

SUMMARY...Strong slow moving thunderstorms capable of quick 1.5"
in hour or less pose highly focused/localized incident or two of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a strong closed low over
southern Sonora/N Sinaloa state in Mexico with broad diffluent
pattern across Chihuahua and Western Texas Panhandle. The speed
max is streaking westward with right entrance ascent, while the
right branch and left exit of 70kt+ streak is bending
anticyclonically across Coahuila into the Edwards Plateau of W
Texas. Moisture has remained pooled along the Rio Grande Valley
for the last few days with mid to upper 50s Tds analyzed (though
upper 60s and 70s reside in the lower RGV, southeast of the
Pecos); this and direct heating and modest lapse rates continue t
to support 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE as the day fades. Outflow from
initial convection in Mexico as well as peaks in far W Tx along
the Hueco Range has helped to support some additional convergence
for newer convective cells to sprout quickly, with a slow
southeast propagation through the next few hours. The strong
outflow aloft and sufficient low level moisture should allow for
quick cloud base moisture loading to support quick bursts of
1-1.5" in 30 to 60 minutes, kick an outflow to help trigger later
convection down the line.

A shortwave/vorticity center is lifting northward through the
divergent flow and is likely to initiate further convection over
the higher terrain of Chihuahua that has potential to reach the
Big Bend later into the overnight and may also intersect with some
of these initial scattered cells propagating southeastward. Given
hard, rocky ground conditions, localized flash flooding will
remain possible across the area through the early overnight
period.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4vYK6l8RNVKgSdrqhYFiGcvuzAIAiG62ogiud6gzjkbJBR3FRj9VTRVbODBik-SPw3gJ= vTS88KYabJrdK7JIEb-PkD4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31910548 31850492 31460421 30730286 29930191=20
29410270 28960300 29070362 29580451 30360494=20
30780548 31180596 31580592=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050432
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-051030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0321
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast
Nebraska...Northwest Missouri...Southern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050430Z - 051030Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with significant
concerns for backbuilding and training of convective cells are
expected overnight across northeast KS, far southeast NE,
northwest MO, and southern IA. Already pockets of flash flooding
are ongoing, and with 1.5 to 2.5 inch/hour rainfall rates expected
with the convection, some additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6+
inches will be possible overnight. Locally significant and
life-threatening flash flooding will be possible as a result.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
well-organized axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across
portions of northeast KS, northwest MO and southern IA. The
convection is in a highly efficient environment for extreme
rainfall rates as an ejecting compact vort center/shortwave
interacts with a nocturnally enhanced 30 to 40+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet.

Deep moisture convergence is strong, with precipitable water
values of 1.7 to 1.9 inches contributing to highly efficient
warm-rain physical processes and deep warm cloud layers.
Instability remains sufficient to support robust convection, with
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, while 30 to 40 kts of
effective bulk shear sustains storm organization.

Of significant concern are the favorable Corfidi vectors promoting
slow storm motions, backbuilding, and cell-training over areas
with ongoing flash flood warnings. Instantaneous rainfall rates
are peaking at 1.5 to 2.5 inches per hour. The 00Z HREF and REFS
suite strongly supports 50 to 80 percent probabilities of
exceeding 3-hour flash flood guidance through the overnight hours,
with a consensus of hires CAMs supporting additional rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6+ inches.

The combination of intense rainfall rates, significant moisture
anomalies, and a sustained training storm mode supports a likely
flash flood threat with considerable runoff potential. Some urban
locations may locally experience significant and life-threatening
flash flooding over the next several hours. This may include the
St. Joseph, MO vicinity along with adjacent communities back into
northeast KS and also off to the northeast across northwest MO.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!71nTGmCRbx0FI_LKv03i3MeE1FlMuHrO6L1b3wneDcPgoUoGlRClZTfssgGodl9DAUAd= 4Jm8n_9p6n4cTODuWbhCCy8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41569216 41189184 40529216 39959294 39299426=20
38989520 38919615 39159666 39679668 40229610=20
40819493 41359357=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050946
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-051400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0322
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...Northern Missouri...Southern and Eastern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050945Z - 051400Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of locally backbuilding and training
convection will continue to track across portions of northern
Missouri and to a lesser extent southern and eastern Iowa through
the mid-morning hours. Localized rainfall rates as high as 1.5+
inches per hour falling on locally moist/sensitive grounds will
maintain a threat for some additional flash flooding, but
conditions should gradually improve by later this morning.

DISCUSSION...A wave of low pressure and associated mid-level vort
centered over southwest Iowa continues to track gradually off to
the northeast along a well-defined surface trough that has some
weak frontal characteristics. This continues to facilitate a
mature cold-topped convective complex across northern Missouri,
with a more elongated and broken axis of convection seen
downstream across southern and eastern Iowa.

The thermodynamic profile has stabilized a bit relative to earlier
in the night, but there continues to be a nose of MUCAPE values on
the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg across northern Missouri and
southern Iowa which is being driven by a persistent southwest
low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kt. This coupled with the high PW
environment with values near 1.75 inches continues to favor
rainfall rates reaching as high as 1.5+ inches/hour.

The 06Z consensus of hires CAMs suggest a gradual decline in
convective organization and intensity going toward and after 12Z
this morning which will be largely driven by decreasing CAPE and
eventually a decrease in the low-level jet, but there will still
be at least a few more hours of locally heavy rainfall. This will
include some concerns for additional backbuilding and
cell-training across portions of northern Missouri in particular.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible.

As a result, some additional areas of flash flooding may occur
across northern Missouri, with the threat overall a bit lower over
southern and especially eastern Iowa where the antecedent
conditions are not as sensitive.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6o2jvNMC_LDlzj9UdbKdHs9Xcs_PkrRyrJ_9zrDpwQpI7iAJoUuCZsQ33RpcNM1BuDt_= 5I1Uok06zP7AbqwvkwPZSTg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42689099 42399012 40999061 40129143 39619229=20
39389360 39619490 39919526 40249513 40569434=20
40999333 41809226=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051225
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0323
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051223Z - 051700Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered narrow axes of training showers and
thunderstorms across southeastern TX may result in isolated
pockets of flash flooding over the next 4-5 hours. Hourly rainfall
locally in excess of 2 inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...12Z regional radar imagery over the TX Coastal Plain
depicted scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms, moving
from SSE to NNW. Low level flow of about 10 to 20 kt (slightly
stronger over the upper TX coast into the Piney Woods region) was
oriented perpendicular to the coast, resulting in the widely
scattered shower activity. Surface observations at 12Z showed the
reflection of a remnant surface frontal boundary, represented by
lower dewpoints to its north and east, extending from the northern
Gulf Coast into southeastern TX. MLCAPE was also reflective of
this boundary with a gradient shown on the 12Z SPC mesoanalysis
with 500 to 1500 J/kg located on the warm side of the remnant
frontal boundary across the TX Coastal Plain, with little to no
instability to its north. Near this gradient was weakly convergent
flow in the 0-2 km AGL layer, partially aligned with the mean
steering flow from the SSE.

Due to the similar orientation of the low level and steering flow,
with low level flow slightly stronger than 10-15 kt steering flow,
some training and brief backbuilding of cells will be possible
over the next few hours. Southeastern TX was also beneath the
ridge axis of a broader upper ridge over the Gulf, aiding in weak
upper diffluence. With GPS PWs of 2.0 to 2.1 inches over
southeastern TX, the environment will be supportive of efficient
rainfall with potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour
(locally higher possible), and 2 to 4+ inch storm totals.

While the coverage of these higher rates remains quite uncertain
and could end up highly localized, portions of southeastern TX
have picked up 3 to 6+ inches of rain over the past 2-3 days,
resulting in pockets of higher soil moisture and reduced
infiltration capacity. Therefore, in addition to urban overlap,
additional heavy rain of 2 to 4+ inches falling atop any
hyrdologically sensitive locations could result in isolated flash
flooding over the next 4-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_G9RKQkhmDQZ3sXLVF50qCyFjJgUKqNUASWXfuJjPf8zWGS58lfJ4YmuNn-6vM27qSuS= wMCRa55wp2W-ZTONvKVrPSA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31459581 31229519 30809482 30519443 30209395=20
29539397 28609538 27929674 29139734 30869710=20
31369652=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051704
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0324
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern TX into far southeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051700Z - 052130Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood threat will continue through the
afternoon hours for eastern TX into far southeastern OK. Narrow
axes of training showers and thunderstorms will support 1 to 2
in/hr rainfall but also have the potential to produce hourly
rainfall locally in excess of 2 inches.

DISCUSSION...1640Z radar and visible satellite imagery showed
scattered showers and thunderstorms over southeastern TX with some
recent expansion northward toward the I-20 corridor between FTW
and TYR. Breaks in cloud cover over eastern TX were helping with
slightly better surface heating compared to the thicker cloud
cover over central TX at the moment. The airmass over eastern TX
remained very moist with PWs of 2.0 to 2.2 inches and unstable
with 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE (via 16Z SPC mesoanalysis data). Low
level directional convergence/confluence remained better focused
across southeastern TX where low level southeasterly winds near
the lower Sabine River met with a more southerly flow to the west
over east-central TX.

While confluent axes were weak and somewhat transient, there
should remain a better focus for low level forcing over eastern
TX, aligned with the mean steering flow, allowing for training and
brief backbuilding of cells. The low level confluence axis is
forecast by the RAP to slowly shift north this afternoon but lose
some definition and become offset in orientation from the mean
steering flow. Despite the less favorable setup into northeastern
TX later this afternoon, this area will maintain a limited threat
for training and brief backbuilding. Due to the moist and unstable
environment, areas of training will carry the likelihood for 1 to
2+ in/hr rainfall rates along with a few totals of 2 to 4 inches
(locally higher). A few locations could see isolated flash
flooding over the next 4-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8m2TkxfusEqUxVBKB4D3KTaodBbyWSqtE8qveOe-vuUkz_K84xlq-M-pgdtL0He9TiXf= 5zf_-1YNSDqNY7TvXdR_Avw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34599546 33419511 32329464 30299374 29509497=20
29119590 29509662 31079726 32839746 34389654=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051817
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-060000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0325
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...western TX into southeastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051816Z - 060000Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms, some with slow movement,
will pose an isolated flash flood threat across portions of
western TX into southeastern NM. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 30
to 60 minutes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East water vapor imagery showed a closed upper
level low over Chihuahua with a visually inferred and RAP analysis
supported jet streak located to its southeast (80 kt) over
Coahuila with left-exit region ascent over portions of western TX,
west of the Pecos River. With a portion of the mid-level trough
extending northeastward from Mexico into southeastern NM and the
TX Panhandle, weak steering flow was in place for a notable
portion of far western TX into southeastern NM and parts of the TX
Panhandle.

Visible satellite and radar imagery have already confirmed
convective initiation across portions of the region where more
favorable solar insolation has allowed for an expanding region of
500-1500+ J/kg MLCAPE where PW values remained anomalous (+1 to +2
standardized anomalies) as they have for the past several days.

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across portions of
southeastern NM into portions of western TX with continued daytime
heating and reduction of CIN. Another contributing factor will be
the expected northeastward movement of the closed low over Mexico,
which will provide increased ascent and diffluence aloft across
western TX.

While thunderstorm coverage is not expected to be numerous
throughout the afternoon/early evening, there will likely be a few
slower moving cells and smaller clusters with the potential to
produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in 30 to 60 minutes. Portions of the
region have seen well above average rainfall over the past week
and areas of lowered flash flood guidance exist as a result.
Therefore, isolated flash flooding will be possible over western
TX into southeastern NM through ~00Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-6lE0ArMIjd0K6itLZx_tsOkbpLP6amD24TmDO4rfD20t2H7oDsacoE7vERDc-H_1Hj= UQ1cG3cBypOrFr6G3L2pyVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34760140 34280063 33460037 32560073 30980132=20
30220193 29700315 29870364 30240402 30730433=20
31130503 31510559 32240608 33490572 33560441=20
33870320 34460224=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051925
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-060124-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0326
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...western Oklahoma through western north Texas, the
eastern Texas Panhandle, and surrounding areas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051924Z - 060124Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are producing heavy
rainfall, with rain rates of 2 inch/hr noted beneath stronger
storms. Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis.

Discussion...Strong insolation has support sufficient instability
for robust thunderstorm development generally along an axis from
just west of Abilene (Snyder), TX north-northeast to near Enid,
OK. The storms are in an environment with very weak shear (mean
flow generally less than 15 knots across the discussion area), but
strong instability (2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and abundant moisture (1.7
inch PW) supporting deep updrafts and locally heavy rain. Forcing
for ascent is weak, although objective analyses depict a very weak
mid-level shortwave trough and vorticity max over western Oklahoma
that was likely providing ascent to support the deeper convection
currently developing. Peak rain rates of 2 inches were occurring
in spots, which is generally falling below FFG thresholds of 2-2.5
inch/hr (locally lower in west-central Oklahoma though).

The ongoing scenario supporting isolated instances of flash
flooding should continue for several more hours. Strong
insolation will continue to maintain large instability across the
discussion area, while localized/expanding cold pools support
newer updrafts across the discussion area with time. Cell motions
should be slow and at times erratic. Flash flood potential will
be locally enhanced in areas of favorable cell mergers that can
prolong rain rates in any given locale. The isolated flash flood
risk should wane some after sunset/02Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9XED3-dcm_lleCcQTC_u36QEMdLqdAojJOIGbagyQ7KRAtnzHXTllhwgNnqfW7_RlzFG= q2RRvZsBRJyjtu3_SU24q48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36759724 35159732 33379860 32040037 32870097=20
34870118 35730050 36089980 36659891=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052206
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060204-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0327
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052204Z - 060204Z

Summary...Recent development of convection near the Brownsville,
TX Metro area and along the Lower Rio Grande Valley poses a flash
flood risk.

Discussion...Radar trends depict several slow-moving cells over
Deep South Texas that have persisted for several hours and
produced occasional 3 inch/hr rain rates - primarily over rural
areas where FFG thresholds are quite high (3-4 inches/hr, locally
higher). Flash flood potential has been relatively
isolated/sparse.

Recent radar/satellite depicts convection forming nearer to the
populated areas of the Lower Rio Grande Valley (near/just
northeast of Brownsville and just south of McAllen). These cells
are in a similar environment as the aforementioned cells farther
north across Deep South Texas, and have potential for 3 inch/hr
rain rates over more sensitive, urbanized locales. The risk for
impacts from flash flooding have increased over the past 30
minutes and will continue to do so while slow-moving cells
continue over more sensitive/urban areas.

This risk will likely continue for at least a couple hours.=20
Models suggest that convection will be primarily diurnally driven
and should lessen in intensity/coverage after sunset.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4f6FQdvSGYHEvXplVdvfV08ZlrF6WvfxhW6bIHF0Y-8bSzuvu3a6UO4ouaFOllSJhhip= uYMvo9DaGvBZac3XuatD1Lk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27789791 27469736 26429714 25769721 25819818=20
26359895 27569892=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052340
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0328
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
739 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052338Z - 060400Z

Summary...A band of convection was organizing along a north-south
axis from near Killeen to near Luling. This will spread heavy
rainfall across portions of Austin Metro and surrounding areas for
at least the next 2-4 hours. Flash flooding is possible in
sensitive locales.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicted a band of
convection from near Killeen south-southeastward to Luling (east
of San Antonio) that was increasing in organization and intensity
over the past hour or so. The forcing mechanisms for this band
are currently unclear, bur are likely tied to subtle influences
from a mid/upper wave centered over far west Texas and subtle
confluence along a weak boundary separating rain-cooled air from
east Texas to slightly warmer conditions to the west.=20
Unfortunately, these cells were organizing generally parallel to
weak southerly steering flow aloft, allowing for individual cells
to move slowly north while enabling the developing convective axis
to stay nearly stationary. This has already resulted in spots of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates (and local FFG exceedence) between Killeen
and Georgetown along US 183, along with a gradual increase in
rates farther south near Austin.

With still a few hours of surface heating left, a window of
opportunity exists for convection to pose a flash flood risk for
the areas beneath this band. Additional, forward-propagating
convection southeast of this axis (north of Victoria) may also
exhibit similar behavior (spots of 1-3 inch/hr rates at times).=20
Flash flooding is possible in this regime.=20

Models suggest that a downward trend in convective coverage should
materialize after sunset, though this will be modulated heavily by
convective organization -- any upscale growth of convection will
likely prolong activity and associated heavy rainfall risk. The
current MPD will run through 04Z when flash flooding is most
likely to occur, and trends will be reevaluated for continued risk
around that time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6NC9GR1vRRyJJIYIV94SagEFFy4QPCBsu1EyJ0huwFdyexWW9KW6WNuyKlD4M9M1Fr3j= FO-MKQguHnMPAwFJrF_Ev9A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32109796 31199670 29929652 29169676 28679833=20
30009869 31579894=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052359
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-060557-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0329
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of western through central Texas and the
southeastern Texas Panhandle, far southwest Oklahoma, and
southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052357Z - 060557Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms persist, resulting
in a continued flash flood risk across the discussion area through
much of the early evening.

Discussion...Deep convection continues beneath a mid/upper low
centered over the Transpecos region of far west Texas. Abundant heating/instability beneath this mid/upper low and abundant
moisture (1.2-1.75 inch PW values - highest with eastward extent)
was continuing to support locally heavy rainfall, with rates
exceeding 2-3 inches/hr in spots - especially across the
southeastern Texas Panhandle, just north of Lubbock, near
Sweetwater, and near Iraan. Flash flood potential remains likely
with this activity for at least another 2-4 hours (through sunset).

Models/observations depict that convection will remain
slow-moving, with slow propagation expected near any linear
segments or clusters that begin to propagate. Storms may
eventually undergo a weakening trend with time after sunset, but
it is likely that this process will take several hours to play out
with lingering instability and the tendency for small upscale
growth with some of the activity. There is some risk that
additional convection forms over the Hill Country between Junction
and US 281 given satellite presentation of local towering cumulus
in that area, though forcing overall is weak and this risk is
somewhat conditional. Moisture/buoyancy profiles support heavy
rainfall/flash flood risk with any convection that develops in
that region through the early evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5yt9EhQDxkF4vHAl-ky3zxUlUYd4HIx3N-f0GKD8Ov8ywlHLoRaBAuLqqlmOjmvZ4g-_= MD9xiQ7hCBKFhIpUGVlfZWY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...
SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35280126 35160010 34579916 32699862 30559871=20
28949910 28690007 29570148 29760248 29050317=20
29230398 29810474 31940610 33680594 34310433=20
34600252=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060118
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060717-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0330
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska into southern Iowa,
northern Missouri, and a small part of northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060117Z - 060717Z

Summary...Strong thunderstorms will continue to gradually develop
across the discussion area. Slow movement and favorable
orientation for backbuilding and training will pose a threat for
flash flooding, with locally significant impacts possible.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms are forming in earnest across
southeastern Nebraska currently. The storms are likely responding
to increasing low-level convergence related to increasing 850mb
flow/low-level jet axis over western and central Kansas currently.
The storms are in a strongly unstable and moist environment
(MLCAPE nearing 4000 J/kg, 1.4-1.7 inch PW), with modest steering
flow supporting slow storm motions and local backbuilding. Given
the strong instability and favorable storm orientation, areas of
1-2 inch/hr rates were already being estimated per MRMS in a few
spots, approaching FFG thresholds (relatively low in southeastern
Nebraska and points southeastward).

Given the environment and downstream ground sensitivities (~1
inch/hr rain rates immediately downstream from NE into northwest
MO), flash flooding appears likely as convection slowly migrates
eastward. Current evolution appears to support expanding
convective clusters that eventually form a mix of cells and small
linear segments as storm modes. Flash flooding could become
significant in areas that experience prolonged rainfall and higher
rain rates. Current trends suggest that FFG thresholds could
easily be doubled (rain rates exceeding 2.5 inch/hr) in a few
instances. This risk will persist through the overnight hours,
again with backbuilding potential likely given the favorable,
orthogonal positioning of the KS low-level jet to the surface
boundary over southeastern Nebraska.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Qiq0jjMUE9VLTRdpRbWa1s9Oa3-2V2RssV8scpp6gnxOpke5hEdhcmIljax2IUiumAj= tS3M5jI6eJiAerBNdpYLKV0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41689696 41629397 41429279 40429258 39559367=20
39419704 40429907 41529907=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060256
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-060700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0331
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Southwest to Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060254Z - 060700Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to anchor, back-build, and
train across the region overnight. Torrential rainfall rates of 2
to 3 in/hr will be capable of producing localized totals of 3 to 5
inches. Flash flooding is likely.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES-E IR satellite imagery and regional radar
mosaics show an organized area of slow-moving convection across
central to southwest Oklahoma and adjacent northwest Texas. This
activity is blossoming directly along and north of a
quasi-stationary surface trough. Convective trends over the past
hour show highly efficient, discrete cells tending to consolidate,
with pronounced back-building occurring along the southern flank
of the convective mass.

The mesoscale environment is supportive of a localized, high-end
flash flood threat. Recent RAP mesoanalysis indicates a nocturnal
low-level jet (LLJ) slowly veering and strengthening to 30-35
knots out of the south. This LLJ is slamming directly into the
aforementioned surface trough and is yielding focused low-level
moisture convergence and mesoscale ascent. The thermodynamic
profile fueling this ascent is rich for early June, featuring an
influx of 1.75 to 2.00 inch PWATs and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of
elevated MUCAPE.

The primary catalyst for flash flooding tonight will be the
kinematic profile. As the LLJ continues to strengthen and veer, it
is effectively shrinking the Corfidi upwind propagation vectors to
less than 10 knots. Furthermore, these shortened vectors are
orienting nearly parallel to the stalled surface boundary and
opposite to the mean mid-level steering flow. This dynamic ensures
that cell regeneration on the inflow (upwind) flank of the cluster
will perfectly balance the downwind cell motion, leading to a
nearly stationary convective footprint.

Given the available moisture and instability, warm-rain processes
will dominate, easily yielding torrential rainfall rates of 2 to 3
in/hr. With relentless back-building and training expected to
persist over the next few hours, localized rainfall totals of 3 to
5 inches are likely. This will rapidly overwhelm local soils and
drainage basins, leading to instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5gamVIMaaUI4_Zynu4uiT_jN3o65fM_lRkfuX_AfuL9i9JT6LLA-X5LDtQ81MTPG_Lt9= mfFoFJnUnhsnWE2g6ftfXSA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35669767 35499713 34629748 33949813 33649903=20
33609977 33870009 34269997 34729908 35499817=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060411
FFGMPD
TXZ000-061000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0332
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas/Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060409Z - 061000Z

SUMMARY...Very efficient showers and thunderstorms will persist
and regenerate across central Texas into the overnight hours.
Extreme rainfall rates of 2 to 3 in/hr are possible which may
result in localized additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 4+ inches.
Flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery and GOES-E Proxy
Visible satellite trends show an active, but broken area of
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of
central Texas and the Hill Country. This activity is being
sustained by a highly anomalous and deep tropical moisture axis
and subtle deep layer ascent. Recent 00Z RAOBs and OSPO/CIRA ALPW
data indicate a dual-feed moisture tap with modest low-level
moisture transport originating from the Gulf which is being
superimposed by a deep mid to upper-level moisture contribution
from the eastern Pacific given deeper layer southerly flow.

The synoptic and mesoscale forcing mechanisms, while subtle in the
lower levels, are highly supportive of sustained ascent. A subtle
surface trough is currently draped across the region, providing
the necessary low-level convergence. Aloft, the upper-level flow
is becoming increasingly divergent ahead of a deep-layer trough
over the southern High Plains. When combined with a moderately
unstable thermodynamic profile characterized by 1000 to 2000 J/kg
of MUCAPE, robust and persistent updrafts will continue to blossom.

The primary hazard tonight is the extreme rainfall efficiency of
these updrafts. With PWATs analyzed between 2.0 and 2.25 inches
and a very deep warm cloud layer in place, warm-rain
collision-coalescence processes will dominate. This will easily
support torrential rainfall rates of 2 to 3 in/hr.

While the 00Z REFS guidance appears considerably underdone and out
of touch with ongoing observational trends, the latest
high-resolution HRRR and the 00Z HREF suite are in much better
agreement with the current radar presentation. Relying on the
HREF/HRRR consensus, the expectation is for these highly efficient
storms to produce localized additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4+
inches overnight. Given the intensity of the hourly rates,
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding will remain a
threat through the early morning hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fCGYu72D8EYN-gPgXJujfSxOZSSURdZSnueuAauYChQZb2JwXZLEK7eY5Ygw-rWo63m= BFUXOcvmzMsn58vIVy29R14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32279745 32189668 31659620 30879615 30149649=20
29599735 29539817 29999867 30789860 31619820=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060600
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-061030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0333
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...West-Central to Northwest Texas...Southwest to
Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060558Z - 061030Z

SUMMARY...An elongated axis of slow-moving, locally backbuilding,
and training thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of west-central/northwest Texas and southwest/central Oklahoma. High
rainfall rates reaching up to 2 inches/hour will support locally
an additional 3 to 4+ inches of rain going through the early
morning hours. Regional areas of flash flooding are likely to
continue with locally significant impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery and satellite data show
an expansive, elongated corridor of deep convection continuing to
impact west-central into northwest Texas, extending northeastward
into southwest and central Oklahoma. This convection is exhibiting
classic nocturnal heavy rainfall characteristics, including
persistent training and discrete backbuilding cells along the
upwind flank of the axis.

The atmospheric profile remains primed for extreme warm-rain
efficiency. Precipitable water (PW) values across the region are
highly anomalous, exceeding the 90th percentile of local
climatology and running greater than 2.5 standard deviations above
normal. This deeply tropical moisture plume is overlapping with a
moderately unstable airmass, with recent mesoanalysis indicating
elevated MUCAPE values pooling between 1000 and 2000 J/kg.

Forcing for continuous convective regeneration is being provided
by strong, divergent upper-level flow ahead of the southern High
Plains trough/closed low which is interacting with a well-defined
low-level surface trough. A strengthening 30 to 35 knot low-level
jet is maximizing speed and directional moisture convergence along
this low-level trough axis, continuously replenishing the
instability.

Furthermore, the local kinematic profile features highly favorable
Corfidi upwind propagation vectors. As the low-level jet veers and
reinforces the inflows, the resultant upwind vectors are shrinking significantly and orienting nearly parallel to the low-level
convergent axis. This setup guarantees that new cells will
repeatedly regenerate on the southwestern flank of the cluster and
mature over the same downstream locations, resulting in a
persistent train-echo effect.

Given the deep warm-cloud layers and notable thermodynamic
support, rainfall rates up to 2 inches/hour will still be
achievable within the core of this activity. Where training
becomes anchored for multiple hours, localized additional totals
of 3 to 4+ inches are likely, which will continue to support a
regional threat for flash flooding and potentially significant
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kuGlKSKhHWQ54WULKDNLnjlZWWtUsLqeu3JuPay9nFrnMwkb71RBOp0aFagi0lZRipf= 5epemFP_i8Ahrb7lOaCSPxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35529794 35389750 34759749 34219772 33179821=20
31779926 31500006 31680069 32000110 32470135=20
33000107 33660021 34579936 35249872=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060712
FFGMPD
NEZ000-061015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0334
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060710Z - 061015Z

SUMMARY...Locally backbuilding and training supercell
thunderstorms will continue to foster concerns for flash flooding
for a few more hours across south-central to southeast Nebraska
before the activity weakens this morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows deep cold-topped
convection associated with a cluster of locally backbuilding and
training supecell thunderstorms continuing across portions of
south-central to southeast Nebraska.

The activity remains somewhat anchored in close proximity to a
front with notable moisture convergence. A southwest low-level jet
of 30 to 35 kts interacting with the front coupled with a pool of
elevated instability with MUCAPE values near 2000 J/kg has been
helping top sustain the activity. Favorable Corfidi vector
orientations have favored much of the slow overall advance of the
convective mass over the last couple of hours with an excellent
setup for backbuilding and training convective cells.

Over the next few hours as boundary layer CIN increases further
and the low-level jet weakens, the ongoing convection should begin
to weaken and lose organization. For the next few hours, some
additional rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches/hour will be
possible, and this may drive sufficient totals for some additional
areas of flash flooding. However, the consensus of the latest
hires CAMs suggest convection weakening toward dawn.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5KxVtwV4FeDtqlA5z79jqWtbT9PN6DD2es5Pt7a5s1ZCcOvcA1dCMS89uySIU3_2VN8= cxImjpbkAu9_0OWcfrXjvoU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41579848 41319709 40929630 40439610 39999656=20
40019767 40439875 40969921 41399909=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060902
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-061500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0335
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Northern Texas...The Red
River Valley...Central and Eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060900Z - 061500Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of highly efficient, locally training
thunderstorms will spread northward across the region this
morning. Pockets of extreme rainfall rates reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour will be capable of producing localized totals of 3 to
5+ inches. Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, with
sensitive urban locations being particularly vulnerable.

DISCUSSION...An increasingly divergent flow regime is spreading
aloft across the southern Plains as an upper-level trough and an
associated closed low over west Texas gradually shift
northeastward. Deep-layer southerly flow, positioned between this
western trough and a subtropical ridge over the Southeast U.S.,
has established a highly anomalous moisture conveyor belt. Recent
OSPO/CIRA ALPW data highlights a dual-feed tropical moisture tap
with Gulf moisture actively streaming northward in the low levels,
while an eastern Pacific moisture feed is being drawn through the
mid and upper-levels of the atmospheric column.

This rich moisture profile features a substantial warm cloud
layer. When coupled with moderate instability characterized by
MLCAPE values locally up to 1500 J/kg, the environment is
exceptionally primed for highly efficient, extreme rainfall rates.
Furthermore, embedded vort maxima within the mid-level southerly
flow are providing focused localized forcing for ascent. Over the
past couple of hours, this energy has already supported focused
convection with very high rainfall rates generally east of Waco
(between the I-35 and I-45 corridors), where a band of storms is
lifting north-northeastward and locally training over the same
areas.

Through the mid to late morning hours, the primary concern will
shift northward as deep-layer moisture convergence and forced
ascent increase across portions of the Red River Valley of the
South. Convection is expected to increasingly impact northern
Texas, including the highly vulnerable and densely populated
Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, as well as adjacent areas of
southern, central, and eastern Oklahoma.

The environment strongly supports the development of additional
locally training and backbuilding thunderstorms. These high
rainfall rates, which may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour with the
stronger convective cores, and subsequent localized rainfall
totals of 3 to 5+ inches this morning are strongly supported by a
consensus of the 06Z HREF alongside recent runs of the HRRR and
RRFS. This will likely result in at least scattered areas of flash
flooding, posing an elevated threat to more sensitive urban
locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9dadn9aPspIktHaC7LfFauZ5-ampJcP2FRWywPfOdaOdU0mrmY6bgfdhDUOHRhMFNJIW= -nlmaiZOUzOLd2JwmgUaTw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36599665 36509567 36049500 35319474 33919489=20
32339546 30959646 30649748 30689837 31069893=20
31669890 32269867 33479828 34479828 35709809=20
36359748=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061445
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-062030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0336
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1044 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX into eastern OK/western AR and
adjacent portions of KS/MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061443Z - 062030Z

SUMMARY...At least localized patches of flash flooding appear
likely from portions of northeastern TX into eastern OK and
adjacent portions of western AR into southwestern MO and
southeastern KS. Backbuilding and training of thunderstorms will
produce 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 14Z across the Southern
Plains showed scattered showers/thunderstorms extending from parts
of northeastern TX into eastern OK as well as portions of
northwestern AR. This activity was located within a region of
pronounced upper level diffluence and divergence, to the east of a
closed mid to upper-level low over northwestern TX. A very moist
airmass existed from the west-central Gulf Coast into eastern
OK/western AR with precipitable water values 0f 1.9 to 2.2 inches
(12Z soundings/GPS ground-based stations). Wet bulb zero heights
were 13-14 kft and MLCAPE was in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range with
little to no inhibition. There were a number of embedded mesoscale
vortices within the precipitation axis, helping to locally enhance
rather efficient rainfall rates.

With only a slow NNE motion forecast for the closed low, scattered thunderstorms will persist across northeastern TX into eastern OK
and the MOKSAROK 4-state junction. Individual thunderstorm cells
will advance north at 15-25 kt but with a southerly low level
inflow of a similar direction and magnitude (highest over
east-central OK with 850 mb winds of 25+ kt), the potential for
backbuilding and training will be high.

The placement of the upper low and corresponding zone of upper
level divergence/diffluence combined along with the region of
stronger low level flow over eastern OK seems to favor locations
north of the Red River for the greatest threat for training and
locally high rainfall over the next 3-5 hours. However, subtle
regions of low level convergence over northeastern TX may also
favor localized zones of training and high rainfall rates.

The environment will support hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches at
times over isolated to widely scattered sections of TX/OK/AR with
potential for 3 to 5+ inches on a localized basis through 20Z.
These high rates are likely to lead to at least localized areas of
flash flooding into the afternoon.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5f5tchBWXS0sgK9qmY-lPEBOjffZ8SVaJ-P77hdfWoZtU9u6kKRdcFw0piB3pbt-jQVJ= S36aJEA-rVZXllIzYCYU3KY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37199500 36889371 36529311 36159290 35389286=20
34879325 33829422 32509443 31479474 31259515=20
31329585 31609628 32469678 34139711 35699730=20
36529719 36929674 37159584=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061539
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0337
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1138 AM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...southeastern LA, southern MS/AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061537Z - 062120Z

SUMMARY...Very efficient showers and thunderstorms are expected
over portions of the central Gulf Coast from southeastern LA into
southern AL over the next several hours. Efficient rain rates of 1
to 2 inches in 15-30 minutes are expected.

DISCUSSION...1515Z radar imagery over the central Gulf Coast
showed an axis of showers and thunderstorms stretching from just
south of the MS/AL border into southern MS. A second but less
pronounced axis was present to the east over eastern Baldwin
County, AL into the northern Gulf. Visible satellite imagery
showed hints of cyclonic turning over southeastern LA into
southwestern MS with a low level convergence axis identified east
of this feature over the Chandeleur Islands into the Gulf Coast of
MS, before curving back toward the northwest into south-central
MS. The 12Z LIX sounding sampled a very moist environment with a
2.26 inch PW and a tall/skinny MLCAPE of 1150 J/kg. A SE to NW
moisture gradient was evident in blended TPW imagery over the
central Gulf Coast, a remnant of an old/dissipated frontal
boundary.

The RAP has been consistent with the forecast low level axis of
convergence, remaining nearly stationary through 21Z, with only a
gradual eastward translation. Given steering flow oriented
similarly to the axis of convergence near the Gulf Coast, areas of
training are expected along it with locally high rain rates due to
the moist airmass. While areas of training will be somewhat
transient due to a slight offset with the low level convergence
axis and mean flow, warm rain processes should allow for 1 to 2
inches of rain in 15-30 minutes and hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+
inches. Back to the west, daytime heating and filtered sunshine
over southeastern LA should lead to scattered thunderstorm
development over the next 1-3 hours. High rain rates are likely to
lead to isolated flash flooding along the Gulf Coast, with a
particular focus across any urban areas. The flash flood threat is
forecast to continue through 21Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5twxHxeIkL_RNAFCinrwaHGOXf28hDJdvT_5WHjKh7mhxpBBZsUTUVg3C8R7U55tIrVg= RipWFvEHjeBzwfP45mCLzvk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31908959 31838890 31608812 31348769 30738739=20
29898742 29218814 28858895 29308932 29508991=20
29729084 30339099 30899076 31499024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061618
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-062200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0338
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1217 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX into far western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061616Z - 062200Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of southeastern TX into far western LA through the afternoon.
While the coverage of any flash flood issues should stay limited,
there will be the potential for very high rain rates in excess of
2 to 3 inches per hour.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible satellite imagery at 16Z showed the
early stages of scattered showers/thunderstorms over the upper TX
Coastal Plain, along with a southward sinking outflow boundary to
the north which extended from Williamson to Walker counties. The
cells were moving with the mean layer flow at 10 to 15+ kt toward
the northeast, of a similar orientation to the low level flow,
supportive of at least short term training. The environment was
very moist with PWs of 2.0 to 2.2 inches along with MLCAPE of 1000
to 2000 J/kg (SPC mesoanalysis, satellite blended TPW and GPS
ground-based sensors).

While no obvious axes of SW to NE low level convergence (oriented
with the mean wind) are seen in the short term high res guidance
through the afternoon, the potential for brief backbuilding and
training will still exist over the next several hours. Diurnally
driven convection with the added component of convergence with the
southward sagging outflow boundary will maintain scattered showers
and thunderstorms well into the afternoon. While much of this
region of TX is usually able to handle high rain rates without
problems, recent days of localized heavy rainfall have lowered
flash flood guidance values into the 2 to 3 in/hr range across
several locations. The lowered FFG combined with potential for
urban overlap and high rain rates is enough to warrant a
limited/isolated concern for flash flooding due to 2 to 3+ inches
of rain in an hour.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4yBFIvGDNzg-XrVEW3ux6rnkjjuTyuu0b8BmPuVDlfFM3I8HDObHBoygWbEtJVqbg1cU= IU2rBIVAeE6xoa3j-CdarOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31399362 31259304 30389299 29599338 29309457=20
28679557 28459627 28609650 29419658 30309639=20
30619602 30849523 31339427=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061829
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0339
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...eastern IL into central IN and western OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061827Z - 070015Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
portions of IL into IN and OH through the early evening. Widely
scattered to scattered instances of flash flooding will be
possible with training of cells expected to generate hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations and visible satellite
imagery showed the western fringes of an outflow boundary across
eastern IL into IN and southern OH, related to a forward
propagating cluster of storms that tracked through the Midwest
this morning, and which was currently moving into northern
WV/southwestern PA. Also observed on visible imagery was the early
stages of likely thunderstorm development near the western end of
the outflow from near/south of IKK to LAF and along a lake breeze
boundary to the southwest of Lake Michigan. SPC 18Z mesoanalysis
showed moderate to strong instability in the vicinity of the
outflow boundary (MLCAPE of 1000-3000 J/kg) along with PWs of 1.5
to 1.7 inches. Surface to 850 mb layer winds of 10-20 kt were
acting upon the outflow boundary with continued convergence likely
to result in the development of a few thunderstorms over the next
1 to 3 hours from IL into OH.

The WNW to ESE orientation of the outflow boundary is similar to
that of the expected mean cell motion toward the ESE at 20-30 kt.
Despite this progressive motion, a flash flood concern comes into
the picture given the potential for upstream redevelopment of
thunderstorms along the remnant or newly generated outflow
boundary/boundaries. The unstable/moist airmass will be capable of
1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall where cells train. Resulting rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches (locally higher possible) could produce
widely scattered to scattered occurrences of flash flooding
through 00Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7_JNhk-JkcJCjA45kLTAOliwj_jtDvMVgOSc7EidEX7sRl1I02a5IUVTauAfhCsAto10= yFDbL2Qh8azP1jGKpJGVg5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41578761 41008514 40408321 39678244 39058304=20
39048463 39618647 40118863 40798889=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062013
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070212-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0340
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...northern Missouri, southern Iowa, southeastern
Nebraska, and northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062012Z - 070212Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are developing along an axis
from Maryville, KS to Kirksville, MO. Sensitive ground conditions
exist in these areas. Flash flooding is expected on at least an
isolated basis through 02Z/9p this evening.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have developed in earnest
across the discussion area from northeastern KS through northern
MO. Forcing mechanisms for this activity are a bit unclear/weak -
though storms are collocated with the axis of 1) strongest
regional instability (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE), 2) high moisture content
(1.6 inch PW), and 3) weak/negligible convective inhibition. The
storms were in a weakly sheared environment, with very little
steering flow to aid in storm movement and/or propagation. The
storms were also forming over wet/waterlogged soils from prior
rainfall over the past 48 hours, with lowered FFG thresholds
(around 1-1.25 inch/hr) further indicating the sensitive nature of
the ground conditions in the area.

Flash flooding will become more of a concern as these storms
persist/expand in coverage through the early evening. As cold
pools mature beneath expanding convection, occasional mergers and
erratic local motions could foster 2 inch/hr rain rates at times
-- well above local FFG. Flash flooding is expected on at least
an isolated basis, with models/CAMs suggestive of this threat
persisting through at least 02Z/9p central this evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4fk8-cJtJVtc7NhhZztkxgxIvEvkQ77YxXRm7gN-PPuv20e0Xq8JzzTEGqtNBke9Yasv= upYZo2FRvxBErhwlMhV-TqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41329336 40789193 39799182 39049358 39249664=20
39819800 40649732 41189607=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062036
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070234-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0341
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma, far western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062034Z - 070234Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues. Several areas of rain
rates exceeding 1 inch/hr continue as storms move slowly northward
across the discussion area.=20

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area. Recent radar/MRMS depicts scattered, but occasionally
strong convection drifting northward across eastern Oklahoma.=20
Storms have exhibited occasional local backbuilding/training from
time to time, and continue to develop/regenerate over southeastern
Oklahoma, where buoyancy is maximized (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
and moisture is abundant (2+ inch PW values). Modest low-level
confluence (surface through 850mb) also continues across this
region, fueling convective development. Lastly, these cells were
forming over wet ground conditions from prior rainfall, which
exceeded 2 inches in many areas (and locally 5-8 inches just
west/southwest of Tulsa). Local FFG thresholds are near 0 in a
few spots, although 1-1.5 inch/hr thresholds are common.

Models/CAMs suggest that this regime (which continues to support
occasional flash flood risk) will continue for several more hours
- perhaps through 02Z/9p central or so. There is some risk that
convection over western north Texas makes it into western portions
of the discussion area (south-central Oklahoma) with greater
progression, lower rain rates, and a more mature upstream cold
pool that may disrupt the overall convective regime, though this
scenario is conditional and could take several hours to play out.=20
Convection may be more directly modulated by the degree of
insolation, with guidance showing a weakening trend possible after
sunset. Through that time, occasional 1-2 inch/hr rates and wet
soils will pose a continued flash flood risk, with locally
significant impacts possible near urban areas and other locally
sensitive areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ou8Ftn7V10ikXQqS2KkD3h_JJMGlCUHKfktEgnsy_3Z21279U1mOPAvTkBiIlI_FVF6= 7FCnM0FD44L1fkDOq-CxHlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37169398 36179334 34079354 33299437 33409600=20
34129694 36009674 37079568=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062110
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070309-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0342
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
509 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...southern Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, and
far southern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062109Z - 070309Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues as a weak mid/upper
disturbance continues to force deep convection over the discussion
area.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues. Deep convection
remains slow-moving (with weak steering flow aloft per
mesoanalyses) but focused along a couple of low-level convergence
axes (evident per surface obs), 1) from near Natchez, MS to
Hammond/Slidell, LA and 2) along a small bowing convective segment
over Harrison County, MS north of Gulfport. The storms were
ingesting extremely moist/buoyant air in the pre-convective
airmass (2+ inch PW values, 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along and west of the aforementioned convergence zones), while subtle ascent supported
by the mid-level vort max over the region further supports deep,
slow-moving convection. Rain rates above 2 inch/hr have been
common especially from Slidell/St. Tammany eastward into the
southern MS coastal counties, and that's where impacts have been
reported so far today.

These trends are expected to continue for at least another 2-4
hours or so. Models suggest that most convective will be
diurnally driven, with some weakening expected after sunset,
though locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out even after
02Z/9p central. High rain rates (perhaps reaching 2-3.5 inch/hr)
may occur where training is most pronounced. These rates will
cause continued flash flood potential especially in areas 1)
already experiencing impacts, 2) that have soaked soils from
abundant prior rainfall, or 3) fall in urbanized areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_gwfLopQcc5yz4bF0rA_pXuBgkwkvD2XdLPbRRK9bNvKvWXJd7pG5YBHUiWqZv1OE3CA= _tWBUSRaWmZVzPfv08PNtaQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31969095 31878874 30848752 29678801 29078930=20
29269102 30259184 31189156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062139
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-070337-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0343
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
538 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of west-central into north-central Texas
and south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062137Z - 070337Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a flash flood threat
across the discussion area through at least 03Z/10p central.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to focus along a
general axis form near Decatur south-southwest to near San Angelo,
with a separate cluster of storms noted west of Ardmore, OK.
Convection in northern portions of this axis near Decatur was
fairly progressive, which has kept rain rates relatively low
(around 1 inch/hr or less). Northeast of this axis (near
Ardmore), local backbuilding has led to spotty rain rates
exceeding 2 inches/hr. Rain rates remain limited with
southwestward extent toward west-central Texas mainly due to the
more scattered, progressive nature of storms (with motions toward
the northeast at around 25 knots). Flash flood potential has
remained isolated so far in this regime.

Over time though, models/observations suggest that convection may
begin to focus/concentrate along an axis from near Fort Worth to
near San Angelo. An outflow from more mature convection off to
the northeast of this region may stall, while ascent from a
mid-level low centered over the TX Panhandle, low-level confluence
ahead of the convection, and abundant moisture/instability should
result in more focused axes of training over time. Orientation of
convection more parallel to steering flow aloft may also aid in
training convection over time as well. Should this scenario unfold
as models/obs suggest, rain rates should increase into the 2
inch/hr range in spots and locally exceed FFG thresholds -
especially between Fort Worth and San Angelo. Deep convection and
heavier rain rates may also eventually reach the more of the DFW
metro are as well. Flash flooding is possible in this regime on
an isolated basis over the next couple hours, but this risk may
increase with progression into the evening. A more isolated flash
flood risk may also occur in south-central Oklahoma, though it
appears that convection west of Ardmore may eventually merge with faster-moving, forward-propagating convection over north-central
Texas that may temper this threat somewhat. Flash flooding is
still possible in this area pending convective trends.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_HpmkIEDH1NRdpPBBzznBzhBWyQM8V4K5w_bh7iP9bC0kUHrEdArmqnyO7-JXAz6W4MQ= RnOgkwp16enChQTYV9zs2ZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35589629 34249570 32089630 30999772 30509999=20
31310103 32820062 32769939 33199852 34779828=20
35509745=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070203
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0344
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070200Z - 070800Z

SUMMARY...Locally backbuilding and training thunderstorms
scattered about portions of the OH Valley will tend to continue
over the next several hours. Additional isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
scattered areas of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms
continuing this evening across portions of the OH Valley, with
activity noted across areas of far eastern IL and western IN, and
also downwind across central OH. The activity is generally aligned
near and south of a frontal boundary draped west to east across
the region.

There remains a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg across the region along with PWs of
1.5 to 1.7 inches. A modest 20 to 30 kt westerly low-level jet is
noted over the region, with some moderate shear in place,
especially for areas of the Upper OH Valley.

There is enough forcing, instability and shear to tend to support
at least scattered areas of thunderstorms into the overnight
hours, with some localized concerns for some backbuilding and
training convection. This has already been a concern over the last
couple of hours across far eastern IL and western IN. The latest
HREF model consensus and HRRR solutions suggest some additional
localized 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals may materialized given
heavy rainfall rates of up to 1 to 2 inches/hour.

This may result in some additional isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding overnight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8vVXEqvY5X4XzQOrapGczwb7BXJ05g6oe0jILXys4sIDqZ1U95MFnimUizouvMyo10-O= JoFeExNVJoQ2hTMTR4FR3qc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41278833 41208567 40848282 40338046 39897976=20
39367999 39268118 39358334 39558519 39998835=20
40508940 41038915=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070247
FFGMPD
LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-070845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0345
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...Central/Northeast TX...Eastern OK...Western
AR...Northwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070245Z - 070845Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding are expected going
into the overnight hours across the broader Arklatex region,
including areas of central/northeast TX, eastern OK, northwest LA
and western AR. This will include portions of the Ozark Plateau as
a regional threat of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with
extreme rainfall rates continues.

DISCUSSION...Deep layer southerly flow with anomalous moisture of
tropical origins continues to advance north up across areas of the
southern Plains and the Lower MS Valley as an upper trough and
associated closed low continues to drift northeastward. There is a
convergent axis of low-level flow nosing up across northeast TX,
northern LA, eastern OK and the western half of AR which includes
the nose of a southeast low-level jet pushing 30+ kts across
southern and western AR.

The 00Z RAOB from KSHV was extremely moist with a PW of 2.51
inches, and the latest RAP analysis shows a moderately unstable
airmass pooled across much of the region with as much as 1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE in place. This coupled with at least modestly divergent
flow aloft and proximity of multiple surface troughs continues to
favor several regional clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Some of the more focused convective activity over the last hour is
across western AR where some of the rainfall rates have been on
the order of 2 to 3 inches/hour with slow cell-motions. This is
also where there is somewhat stronger forcing working in tandem
with the poleward transport of instability.

Over the next several hours, much of the region from central to
northeast TX through the Arklatex and up north into parts of the
Ozark Plateau will remain under a threat for slow-moving and
locally backbuilding/training showers and thunderstorms with
extremely high rainfall rates. Rainfall rates near some of the
more focused convective clusters are likely to remain on the order
of 2 to 3+ inches/hour, and the latest hires multi-model consensus
suggests pockets of additional 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals
overnight.

Given earlier rainfall, and the additional rainfall potential
overnight, more areas of flash flooding are expected. This will
include localized concerns for significant runoff problems
involving the more sensitive urban locations and any areas of
rugged terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-GmlrjSn-mF-AfmGByqRTc05Fna3ArrsKYy8Hwl8fgvsuutGnOl0jPMlfgNKJajFZNaw= 6jf_bcv63nfitIWfHv8-a1c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36629364 35379260 33999243 32719335 31959584=20
30979785 30869926 31499977 32379921 33659798=20
34409716 35399624 36539507=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070404
FFGMPD
NDZ000-MTZ000-070900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0346
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 AM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...Northeast MT...Far Northwest ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070403Z - 070900Z

SUMMARY...Very heavy and locally training showers and
thunderstorms over the next few hours may pose a concern for at
least some isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows an axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
generally growing upscale across northeast MT and far northwest
ND, The activity is focusing along a well-defined frontal zone as
a wave of low pressure ejects northeastward along it.

Strongly convergent flow into the front with the aid of a
nocturnally enhanced south-southeast low-level of 40 to 50+ kts
coupled with strong instability characterized by MLCAPE values
near 2500 J/kg will continue to support organized convection over
the next few hours. This will include some supercell thunderstorms
which with the instability is being supported by strong effective
bulk shear locally exceeding 50 kts.

The PWs are on the order of 1.0 to 1.25 inches, and locally as
high as about 2 standard deviations above normal with the aid of
the low-level jet. This enhanced moisture transport and organized
level of convection over the next few hours will support rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour quite easily. Some cell-training
concerns already in place with the activity aligned nearly
parallel to the deeper layer steering flow, and this may foster
some localized rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches.

Some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible given these
rainfall totals.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4NoNrQ0y2q1M5fcjYljASJ-7TXr0WLJUuKzS3-kB76WCmnC6svJScCMuvZbPyurKwdw2= 5iSRqKtdzNC01Ku4VNiRtLo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49960200 49010217 47300465 46920595 47400641=20
48600548 49070485 49890323=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070857
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0347
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast TX...Southern OK...Far
Southwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070855Z - 071455Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding are expected going
into the morning hours across portions of north-central to
northeast TX, southern OK and far southwest AR. This will be
driven by the arrival and localized persistence of areas of
showers and thunderstorms with extreme rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...Well-defined vort energy advancing around the base of
the upper trough/closed low over the southern Plains will continue
to interact with an anomalous pool of tropical moisture situated
around the southern and eastern flanks of the upper-level height
falls. Much of the moisture continues to have a dual-feed, with an
axis in the low-levels from the Gulf, and a long-fetch axis from
the eastern Pacific seen in the mid and upper-levels of the
vertical column. In fact, PWs across the region remain as high as
1.8 to 2.2 inches based on the latest RAP and GPS-derived data.

This moisture and energy coupled with MLCAPE values of 1000 to
1500 J/kg will continue to favor relatively slow-moving and
locally repeating areas of showers and thunderstorms with extreme
rainfall rates. Over the last several hours, the southern suburbs
of the Dallas metropolitan area have been seeing rainfall rates as
high 2 to 3 inches/hour. Some MRMS-derived rainfall totals over
the last 6 hours have been on the order of 3 to 5 inches.

The latest hires multi-model consensus including recent HRRR and
RRFS solutions support locally an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain
through mid-morning. Generally the greatest potential should tend
to be over north-central to northeast TX, but areas of southern OK
just north of the Red River may see some redevelopment of
thunderstorms in association with a vort center advancing east
from northwest TX. Downstream areas of far southwest AR may also
see impacts from these clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
later this morning.

Given the earlier rainfall overnight, and additional potential
going through the early to mid-morning hours, additional areas of
flash flooding are expected.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8pcW8umVxcUSQicdr7DumVuWGnWLkAGnA_7bTZgIICTZYERO-7BRayUOukJkR9AEN74b= MRxJHn0-JlZCrot2AUmSFCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34629608 34419452 33699377 32879389 32219483=20
32039617 32109759 32609892 33249952 34039920=20
34379844 34579729=20

=3D =3D =3D
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