ACUS11 KWNS 091743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091742=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-091915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois...southwestern
Indiana...western and central Kentucky...middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091742Z - 091915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity over the
next several hours. Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat,
though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. Convective trends are
being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along multiple diffuse
heating zones, ahead of a remnant MCV centered over central MO.
Given broad low-level convergence preceding the MCV, thunderstorm
coverage may increase through the afternoon. Though mid-level lapse
rates are expected to remain modest, low to mid 70s F surface
dewpoints will support strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE).
Despite poor vertical wind shear, the strong buoyancy may compensate
to support damaging gusts via wet downbursts originating from
stronger storm cores. Furthermore, any storms that can take
advantage of preexisting ambient low-level vertical vorticity from
the MCV or along surface boundaries may have the potential to
produce a brief tornado. If greater convective coverage and
intensity becomes apparent, a WW issuance may be needed.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_wnhH5-aNfiMx1gBnB8G0SHQF4Z9o88EyvzPFaomP30ZZrAqmQg_efDwewJGnAk_tkRuK0I7M= yoESfN1GpRg8VxwFxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...
MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON 36838921 37619002 38599034 39169034 39549004 39558946
39238822 39018726 38808614 38428534 37928480 37328462
36538471 35788524 35468562 35288638 35478699 36008802
36398871 36838921=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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