ACUS11 KWNS 091836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091836=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-092030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...parts of the eastern Dakotas and adjacent western
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091836Z - 092030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development is possible through 3-5 PM CDT. This may include
evolving supercell structures posing the risk for large hail and a
tornado or two. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A plume of warm and increasingly capping elevated
mixed-layer air continues to nose northeastward into and through
much of the northern Great Plains. However, downstream of a
mesoscale convective vortex now migrating northeastward across the
Aberdeen SD vicinity, deepening convective development is evident
within a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by surface
dew points near 70F, which appear to be supporting sizable CAPE on
the order of 3000 J/kg.=20=20

Inhibition near the western Minnesota/Dakotas state border vicinity
remains weaker compared to upstream, but further warming at
mid-levels (particularly around 700 mb) through the remainder of the
afternoon casts some uncertainty concerning potential storm
intensities and sustenance. This is reflected in substantive spread
among the convection allowing guidance. However, given the
magnitude of the potential instability, deep-layer shear appears at
least marginally conducive to the evolution of supercell structures=20
with sustained thunderstorm development. Modest clockwise curved
low-level hodographs could support the risk for a tornado, in
addition to large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 06/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!62NkVunRoWotQrTMhU13NsN3lICI0K5TNOO2nuUhpcHT7Az-hKTotMWsad5QOtIbRymZjzEHe= C-ws2iAnQJRfPM5Se8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47279837 47819810 47369657 45899654 45159657 45549797
46229829 47279837=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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