ACUS11 KWNS 091846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091846=20
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of extreme northeastern New Mexico...far
southeastern Colorado...northern Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma Panhandle...southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 091846Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts is increasing as high-based
storms develop through the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will eventually be needed to address the impending threat.

DISCUSSION...The boundary layer continues to mix and deepen over the
southern High Plains, as surface temperatures approach 100 F, with
50 T/Td spreads supporting 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates and over
1500 J/kg DCAPE. Very strong evaporative cooling potential exists
ahead of an approaching 500 mb longwave trough, which is poised to
glance the region to the north. As such, scattered to numerous
high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of
the southern High Plains over the next few hours, and will become
capable of producing severe (58+ mph) gusts, a few of which may
exceed 75 mph. If convective cells can become deep enough, a few
instances of hail may also occur.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9O8KLXM6V3E4D8jw7hwDB5DD4n0MS1QRrE8orC44YDqNSjm6aOv4CgnQS4WVqUztm5lY9cjWR= FLms50C8l5Wqb371nQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34940399 35620427 36650414 37740385 38280342 38970134
38900069 38570019 38039998 37399992 36610023 35860069
35290134 34870201 34690255 34650307 34700350 34940399=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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