ACUS11 KWNS 102258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102257=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwest Iowa...southeast
Nebraska...northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 303...

Valid 102257Z - 110030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 303 continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
remain possible across Tornado Watch 303. New storm development and intensification is ongoing over northeast KS to the west of the
ongoing supercells over northern MO. The environment remains very
favorable for severe weather.

DISCUSSION...West of the tornadic supercells ongoing over the
eastern part of WW303, visible imagery showed deepening cumulus
towers and incipient storms developing along the front and surface
wind shift from northwest MO into IA/NE and northern KS. A very
unstable air mass is in place ahead of the slow-moving cold front
with 4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE which would support intense updrafts.
Vertical shear is also supporting supercells, though linear forcing
along the front and storm interactions could support a mixed
convective mode.

While new storm development has been gradual, likely owing to warmer
mid-level temperatures, expectations are for additional storms to
intensify over the next couple of hours. This matches well with
recent CAM runs showing supercells and clusters evolving from the
deepening CU over northeastern KS. Initially a risk for hail and
damaging gusts is expected, but a 40+ kt low-level jet, depicted on
area RAP soundings, will help increase low-level hodographs size
later this evening. This would support the potential for a couple of
tornadoes with any persistent supercells.

..Lyons.. 06/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5EAD7WzYqkkrec_6gDTFB-XFpCln-B0jzF-m_JekY68NgLf1vnTyo_P53gHSj1cmn_yUxpkNi= Wjmlxd-Zlxn1jMPIUc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38139747 38649774 38949780 39529719 40609606 40939554
41339451 41309409 40719412 39629437 39059500 38719551
38229652 38079696 38029717 38099732 38139747=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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