ACUS11 KWNS 111627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111627=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-111830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...western Pennsylvania...eastern Ohio...western Maryland...north-central Virginia...and much of West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111627Z - 111830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the
region through early afternoon. The main risk will be severe wind
gusts, and perhaps some hail. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
warranted to cover these threats.

DISCUSSION...Amidst a relatively zonal (if not slightly ridged)
upper-air pattern, a subtle impulse is noted in water vapor imagery
over western Lake Erie and central OH as of 1600z. Associated
mesoscale ascent is contributing to increasing mid-level cloudiness
in the area. Closer to the surface, diurnal heating and warm, moist
advection with southwesterly surface flow is driving temperatures
and dewpoints into the low-/mid- 80s and 70s F, respectively. The
12z PIT (Pittsburgh, PA) sounding showed steeper lapse rates around
1-3 km AGL (up to around 7 C/km) that decrease with height, and bulk
shear around 20-25 kts.

Over the next couple of hours, this modest westerly shear should
persist as the mid-level impulse moves through. Associated forcing
and diurnal destabilization should yield scattered thunderstorm
development through the early afternoon. Relatively large CAPE
values (around 2000+ J/kg) will support some downbursts/severe wind
gusts with any stronger cores or merging outflows. The moist
environment and weaker-shear regime should temper the hail threat,
but some hail cannot be ruled out.

..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HJiyoWIn9ZAxqmSUPKZDg8eF5Ka8JWJWZUCSBNoAw145Jb5If_McxakyqtsAZtRncgfka1cp= IxTg0tRq6qQJDxUUfM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 37368097 39508197 40818180 41968114 42218023 42147868
40597799 38557834 37417947 37368097=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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