ACUS11 KWNS 112008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112007=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...northeast Missouri...eastern Iowa...northwest
Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 313...

Valid 112007Z - 112200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 313 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of severe storm potential is now developing
into southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and northwest Illinois.
Tornadoes, particularly damaging winds, and hail will all be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture and instability have rapidly
developed northeastward from MO into IA ahead of the cold front,
with mid 80s over mid 70s F. Gusty southwest winds are also
providing surface air mass recovery into eastern IA and western IL
where outflow is modifying. Low-level shear is quite strong in this
area, with favorable hodographs for supercells and tornadoes. The
DVN VWP, although on the cool side of the boundary, indicates 0-1 km
SRH around 500 m2/s2. However, values in excess of 200 m2/s2 exist
south of the low and outflow boundary which is clearly sufficient
for tornadoes.

Radar shows storms already extending from the surface low in
east-central IA into far northern MO along the cold front which
continues to advance eastward. Storm structure is mixed, but
favorable deep-layer shear over 50 kt will support further
organization over the next few hours. Both supercells and severe
bows will be possible. Strong tornado potential will depend on
non-linear mode, and is likely to be maximized from the surface low
eastward along the northward advancing outflow boundary. This
includes into north-central IL later today as air mass recovery
continues.

..Jewell.. 06/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90BZVrIuyL02TUT2gFB4ip6NOcDnFjIOLmVFeqDRgBmYOHRs5oW_BtHcZY9hqRxGib32R-6wq= MGeKSumqcJjQvOeEWQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41519228 41779141 41799078 41709048 41569027 40918987
40428981 40078990 39909021 39699143 39659325 40039326
40539294 41519228=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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