ACUS11 KWNS 112112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112111=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-112245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...Western Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 313...

Valid 112111Z - 112245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 313 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado potential appears to be increasing across
western Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery out of KILX depicts a strengthening
supercell with an organizing mid-level mesocyclone near Carthage,
IL. Live web streams depict a strengthening low-level mesocylone as
well, suggesting the potential for tornadogenesis is increasing.
This cell is drifting northeastward within a warm advection regime
where low-level SRH has been increasing per the KILX VWP (0-1 km SRH
has recently increased to 200 m2/s2). Per latest RAP mesoanalysis
estimates, downstream STP values are also increasing to 6-7. The
potential for destructive storm interactions appears limited for the
short term (next hour or so), suggesting that the potential for a
long-track supercell is increasing with an attendant threat or one
or more tornadoes, including possible a strong/intense tornado.

..Moore.. 06/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-UOUMU7ikptT6fY8JpEO9DWNJ85BF5UAk3FwnrllscXJ7bOD5FooO-mtKhyi92BmH61CPXkJ-= gVOozc6gyIMySull-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40329155 40649141 41399011 41388972 41108948 40868946
40598945 40398966 40269014 40199091 40149118 40169142
40329155=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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