ACUS11 KWNS 112323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112323=20
TXZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Rolling Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112323Z - 120100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk of severe downbursts and large hail will
persist for the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...A couple semi-discrete cells are developing along the
cold front in parts of the TX Rolling Plains. Here, temperatures in
the upper 90s amid upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints and steep
deep-layer lapse rates are contributing to a strongly unstable air
mass (around 3500 J/kg MLCAPE). While this environment is conducive
for robust updrafts capable of producing sporadic large hail and
severe downbursts, modest deep-layer shear may limit storm
longevity. Given the localized nature of the risk, a watch is not
currently expected.

..Weinman/Smith.. 06/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9AMiCV9nYE8POLyESC8GCkTYCI51T4VvdH96VgxbUZG9Mo5sAYpw654IL7dVPN6TZpPsiSTxo= 5EI5-IghjjouqBqXsw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34060104 34460057 34600019 34509997 34010004 33580045
33420125 33550166 33880171 34060104=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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