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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1109

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 12 20:48:46 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 122048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122048=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-122245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1109
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

    Areas affected...West Virginia...Virginia...Maryland

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

    Valid 122048Z - 122245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms producing locally damaging gusts may increase in
    coverage over the next several hours with continued wind potential
    over much of Virginia and parts of Maryland.

    DISCUSSION...Two primary areas of thunderstorms have developed this
    afternoon. One is over northern VA within the surface trough, and
    another extends from southeast WV into northeast TN related to the
    residual pre-frontal outflow boundary.

    Substantial moisture and instability have developed into the region
    with daytime heating. Not only are low-level lapse rates steep, but
    GPS PWAT sensors over northern VA have shown a gradual increase in
    moisture as well. The RLX 18Z sounding as well as LWX and RLX VWPs
    show mean midlevel westerlies of 20-30 kt, which supports
    southeastward-moving clusters of storms. The warm and uncapped air
    mass along with ample PWAT and favorable surface lapse rates will
    support corridors of strong to severe gusts through early evening.

    ..Jewell.. 06/12/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46wEISHN8_Bq81PVLN3Af6g1DXLRX5n5dHxBUXjMss6L7dB_J6rpcP_i_0hWZXpsawDRr8Cep= SOkM3bdzVb1betJIgg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 37587626 37267708 36587816 36758066 36838152 37138169
    37308142 37828085 38428019 39297928 39387884 39237785
    39037703 38817668 38337603 37587626=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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