ACUS11 KWNS 122210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122210=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central High Plains into the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 122210Z - 130015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely be issued soon in
anticipation of upscale convective growth with storms currently
moving off the higher terrain and into the south-central plains.
Hail and damaging straight line winds up to 80 MPH will be the
primary threat.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms in northeastern New
Mexico is expected to move eastward off the higher terrain and into
the high plains over the next few hours, where buoyancy and shear
increase with longitudinal extent. Short term forecast guidance and
current mesoanalysis trends suggests this cluster of convection will
grow upscale into a linear convective system with one or more
embedded bowing line segments. Steep lapse rates from strong diurnal
heating, rich moisture content in the boundary layer, and an
intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will support primarily a
damaging wind threat, particularly along the leading edge of
convection and with any bowing line segments. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely to be issued soon.

..Halbert/Gleason.. 06/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!81a78jCmqbwTKWNIdtJ1CMX-o1G8xazCWfP-ORsjOPvAwy8JRATzrs1XvFYvzrmvU-X_TU_y-= DjvYU_LlYNSbT6Jr4k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37340444 37700374 37860247 37870152 37870053 37870012
37759988 37449970 36599963 36259971 35879971 35469986
35400017 35350129 35290267 35350361 35380428 35570461
35960472 36370477 36820479 36960475 37340444=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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