ACUS11 KWNS 122239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122239=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-130045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...Far Western Texas into Southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122239Z - 130045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intermittently reach severe criteria
before diminishing into the evening as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Isolated occurrences of hail and damaging wind gusts are
possible, though no watch is expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms have developed
across far West Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, with MUCAPE
exceeding 2000-3000 J/kg across much of the area. However, a dearth
of deep-layer shear will continue to limit overall storm
organization and severe potential. Isolated occurrences of hail and
damaging winds are still possible, but the pulse nature of the
convection and expectation to decrease in intensity as the boundary
layer stabilizes precludes any watch issuance at this time.

..Halbert/Gleason.. 06/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__LDO5mcWZKZFlhuWEHbZ5YV-1X7iHZDMsTtrkv4ZYFJEDEUxKbKiGU9jCTC8t5-HFz617Drs= Qsw3usaYCfUNRnsHYE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29360379 30640419 32000510 32290589 32630627 33110625
33360557 33290468 32580369 31790287 31300249 30890225
30110227 29790262 29530287 29390312 29330340 29360379=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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