ACUS11 KWNS 130353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130352=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-130545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...the northern Texas
Panhandle...far northwest Oklahoma...and far southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323...

Valid 130352Z - 130545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds continues across portions
of far northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle and
adjacent portions of northwest Oklahoma and far southern Kansas.
However, some weakening trend has been noted, suggesting swaths of
severe winds are becoming more localized.

DISCUSSION...A compact, but organized, MCS continues across the far
northern TX/OK Panhandles per regional radar imagery. Although the
MCS produced a wind gust of 96 mph at the Eva, OK Mesonet site at
around 9:10 CDT, more recent surface observations have largely been
sampling gusts between 40-55 mph. Additionally, a pronounced outflow
boundary is noted surging south towards Amarillo, TX and GOES IR
imagery shows steadily warming cloud-top temperatures. These trends
all point towards a weakening trend over the past 45 minutes.
Further southwest, a less organized segment of the crossing the
NM/TX border has similarly produced occasional gusts between 60-65
mph, but has more recently produced a surging outflow.=20

Based on recent storm tracks, the leading edge of the MCS is
forecast to reach the eastern bounds of WW 323 within the next two
hours. The recent weakening trend casts some uncertainty on the
longevity of the severe threat downstream beyond WW 323; however,
surface observations reveal a plume of low 70s dewpoints oriented
from central to northwest OK. This plume of higher theta-e air is
supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 3000 J/kg that could
support some degree of re-intensification over the next couple of
hours. Furthermore, the leading section of the line along the OK/TX
Panhandle border and a section of the line near Dumas, TX are both
favorably oriented with a 30-35 knot deep-layer shear vector, which
should continue to promote organization of these segments.
Consequently, confidence in the severe wind threat is highest
downstream into northwest OK and possibly north of the Amarillo
region for the next couple of hours.

..Moore.. 06/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8kQ9rWIixMoszfFxu7hYKxx2i4KizglnpGf7K-h21BaJpwR9Gwv6xBf-U2HLEYMsquspQcN0W= 09ZMn_c0cUxTAzOG8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35880407 36300197 36430145 36610120 36870109 37080112
37170112 37330097 37549951 37489914 37299899 36649897
36249908 35919937 35759970 35530029 35390154 35360306
35400363 35500390 35580407 35710417 35880407=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)