ACUS11 KWNS 130412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130412=20
KSZ000-COZ000-130615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...Western Kansas and far east-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130412Z - 130615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized hail threat may persist for the next few hours
across western Kansas and perhaps far east-central Colorado. This
threat is expected to remain fairly spatially confined and isolated;
watch issuance will likely not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Convection across western Kansas has been monitored
over the past couple of hours. An initially discrete cell briefly
intensified and produced golf-ball sized hail before dissipating,
though more recently additional convection has materialized and
continues to intensify. The structure and propagation of these cells
strongly suggests that they are being driven by low-level isentropic
ascent as the nocturnal jet continues to intensify (per regional
VWPs). Recent forecast soundings hint that this convection is likely
rooted between 1-3 km AGL and is realizing the 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE
in place across western KS. Effective shear within the
model-depicted CAPE-bearing layer is likely around 50-60 knots,
which is more than sufficient for organized cells capable of
producing instances of large hail up to at least 1.75 inches (based
on observed hail from the initial cell).=20

RAP mesoanalyses suggest that the MUCAPE plume is fairly narrow and
confined mainly to western KS. The demise of prior convection with
eastward extent seems to confirm these analyses. Consequently, the
severe hail threat will likely be spatially limited. However, GOES
IR imagery shows some percolating cumulus to the west of the ongoing
cells, hinting that additional, but isolated, convection is possible
over the next few hours. Given the isolated nature of the threat,
watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

..Moore/Gleason.. 06/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xYDBC3qKs9NgiKtV6sWx8D5T_aaQWaz7BrPJt5yL000sLkr72cyxJtQyqrTOfkVh_PnN5x2o= 36nWxFTKwF3woUYd_g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 38250157 38390198 38960224 39320220 39500192 39860051
39770016 39559994 39179979 38839981 38619993 38460022
38250157=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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