Forum: Mystical Realm BBS

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 06:07:44 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 160607
SWODY2
SPC AC 160605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across
parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts
of the Upper Great Lakes region.

... Parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes ...

A subtle mid-level vorticity maximum evident in the 16/00 UTC
guidance is expected to move southeastward across northern Minnesota
and the Upper Great Lakes on Friday morning, supporting ongoing
thunderstorms across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. This activity
should spread southeastward through the morning with at least a
marginal severe hail/wind threat.

During the day, a surface frontal zone draped from northern
Illinois/Indiana should begin to lift northward, ahead of a surface
cold front moving through the northern Plains. To the south of the
warm front and ahead of the cold front, diurnal heating may be
somewhat muted by smoke and residual cloud cover from morning
convection. However, increasing low-level moisture should still
support moderate destabilization by the afternoon, especially where
stronger diurnal heating occurs. Moderate mid-level northwesterly
flow will provide enough vertical shear to support organized storms.

As the stronger mid-level wave approaches the region during the late
afternoon and evening, some potential exists for surface-based
thunderstorm redevelopment -- especially near the intersection of
the cold front and effective warm front. Large hail and strong
thunderstorm winds will be possible with these storms, and the
low-level wind field would support at least some potential for a
tornado with any sustained surface-based storm during the evening.
With time this activity should evolve into one or more clusters of thunderstorms moving southeast overnight across the northern Great
Lakes.

... Western Montana and Northern Idaho ...

A relatively favorable thermodynamic environment will once again be
in place across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho by
Friday afternoon. Relatively steep low- and mid-level lapse rates,
sufficient moisture, and diurnal heating should support afternoon
SBCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, as suggested by the
20260716 00UTC HREF. Mid-/upper-level flow will be less than in
previous days as the region becomes increasingly displaced from a mid-/upper-level trough/low moving northward into southwest Canada.
That said, effective-layer shear on the order of 25-35 knots will be
possible, especially where east/southeasterly surface winds are
maintained.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
and evening hours. The strongest thunderstorm clusters will be
capable of large hail. Strong to severe thunderstorm gusts will be
possible as well, especially where convective outflows can
consolidate amid the steep low-/mid-level lapse rates. Most 16/00
UTC HREF members show explicit convective outflow gusts approaching
60 mph, supporting a localized severe threat.

If convective coverage appears greater than currently forecast,
severe probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent
outlooks.

... Ohio Valley ...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Localized downburst winds could occur within this
environment, though deep-layer flow/shear appears too weak to
support an organized severe threat. Additionally, 16/00 UTC guidance
suggests early initiation across the region, which would limit the
development of widespread steep low-level lapse rates, which may
provide some limit on a more widespread, storm-scale driven wind
threat. This region will continue to be evaluated in subsequent
outlooks.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 17:28:30 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across
parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts
of the northern Great Lakes region.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over central SK/AB is
forecast to move southeastward toward the Upper Great Lakes by the
end of the period. Multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
precede this shortwave within west-northwesterly flow aloft. A
surface low is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day
near Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through the
Dakotas and MN. A remnant surface front initially draped from
northern IL/IN into central WI is forecast to move northeastward as
an effective warm front.

Details of convective evolution remain uncertain through the period
across the region. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS may be
ongoing at the start of the period near northeast MN and adjacent
portions of Ontario, with other convection possible to the cool side
of the effective warm front across WI. In the wake of morning
convection, at least isolated diurnal storm development will be
possible along the cold front, and also near its intersection with
the effective warm front. Within the warm sector, moderate buoyancy
and sufficient deep-layer shear will conditionally support a threat
for organized cells/clusters, with a threat of hail and damaging
winds. Any persistent supercell could also pose at least a brief
tornado threat, especially in closer proximity to the surface low
and warm front. One or more storm clusters may evolve Friday night
and move east-southeastward across the northern Great Lakes region,
potentially posing an isolated severe threat.

No upgrade in probabilities has been at this time, due to
uncertainties regarding recovery in the wake of morning convection
across northern WI and Upper MI, and also regarding storm coverage
along the cold front into eastern MN. However, Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) equivalent probabilities may eventually be needed for some
part of the region.

...Western MT/northern ID...
A favorable thermodynamic profile is again expected across parts of
western MT and vicinity on Friday, with steep lapse rates and MLCAPE potentially in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer flow may be
somewhat weaker (compared to D1/Thursday) as a mid/upper-low moves
well to the northwest, but backed surface winds and modest veering
with height will still provide sufficient effective shear for
occasional storm organization. Isolated hail and severe gusts could
accompany the strongest storms. Some guidance suggests potential for outflow-driven storm clustering, which may result in a corridor of
locally greater wind potential, though this scenario remains
uncertain at this time.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A broad area of nebulous damaging-wind potential is expected to
evolve from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast, mainly
during the afternoon. Across the Ohio Valley vicinity, rich moisture
and moderate buoyancy within a weakly capped environment will result
in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Deep-layer
flow/shear will remain quite weak, which should limit storm
organization.

A similar thermodynamic environment will extend into parts of the
Mid-South and Southeast. Weak northwesterly low/midlevel flow may
allow for development of small southeastward moving clusters across
parts of TN/MS/AL, though weak deep-layer shear should temper storm organization.

Due to the disorganized nature of any damaging-wind threat, wind
probabilities have been withheld, though addition of probabilities
across parts of the region is possible, if trends support any
mesoscale corridors of greater threat.

...Florida...
Most CAM guidance suggests vigorous storm development just offshore
of the FL Gulf Coast Friday morning, in association with a weak
midlevel trough/low. The morning convection may tend to remain just
offshore, but additional storm development is expected by afternoon
across much of the peninsula. Weak deep-layer shear and uncertainty
regarding mesoscale details precludes the introduction of wind
probabilities, though localized strong to severe gusts cannot be
ruled out.

..Dean.. 07/16/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 05:34:34 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 170534
SWODY2
SPC AC 170532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley
and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late
Saturday night.

...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic...

An upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes is expected to
amplify as it pivots east across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region on Saturday. As this occurs,
deep-layer flow will increase, with guidance suggesting 850-500 mb
flow in the 40-50 kt range will be common. At the surface, low
pressure will deepen as it shifts east across Ontario and Quebec. A
trailing cold front will develop south/southeast across the region
during the late afternoon into nighttime hours. Ahead of the front,
a quasi-warm front is expect to be oriented across the Mid-Atlantic
and will lift northward through the day within a strong warm
advection regime. Initially modest boundary layer moisture across
PA, northward through the Hudson Valley will rapidly moisten ahead
of the approaching cold front. A corridor of moderate to strong
destabilization is expected from the Mid-MS and OH Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic.

Convection may be ongoing across parts of PA/NY into the
Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning within the strong warm advection
regime. Some potential for an initial round of severe storms could
accompany this activity, especially near the surface warm front.
Additional thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon near a
prefrontal trough and along higher terrain in VA/NC. Vertical shear
will be somewhat less with southward extent, but scattered cells and
clusters will develop east through early evening posing a risk for
damaging wind gusts. Supercell wind profiles are apparent in
forecast soundings and a tornado risk is also possible, especially
near the surface warm front and prefrontal trough where 0-1 km SRH
will be maximized.

Substantial thunderstorm development is also expected within a
second corridor near the surface cold front from southern Quebec
into MI/IN/IL by midday. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s
F will provide ample support for 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE from the Mid MS
Valley toward western PA. Organized cells and line segments will
pose a risk for damaging wind swaths across the region.

Some uncertainty still exists due to effects from morning convection
and possible impacts from persistent smoke across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. However, the overall pattern supports a broad area of
severe potential, with several swaths of damaging winds and a few
tornadoes expected.

...MT/ID...

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the area on
the southern periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft as an
shortwave upper trough shifts east across the Canadian Rockies.
Ample midlevel moisture amid steep lapse rates will foster MLCAPE
near 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings also indicate elongated/straight
hodographs amid 35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated organized
cells will pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts through early
evening.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 17:31:10 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 171730
SWODY2
SPC AC 171729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley
and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly
Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into
late Saturday night.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday from parts of the
Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, as
scattered to widespread storms move through an increasingly
favorable environment. A 45% wind area has been added, resulting in
a categorical upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk. The Enhanced Risk
area is a combination of multiple regimes which may eventually
overlap, with some areas potentially seeing multiple rounds of
strong to severe storms.

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
northern Great Lakes vicinity through the day, before approaching
New England by evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a
deepening surface low is expected to move across southern Quebec
toward northern Maine, as a trailing cold front moves through the
Great Lakes and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
A remnant surface front initially draped from southern NJ into
western PA will lift northeastward as an effective warm front, in
advance of the surface low and cold front.

As strengthening deep-layer wind fields overspread increasingly rich
moisture, a broad region from the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast will become
supportive of organized convection and severe-thunderstorm
potential. HRRR-based forecasts suggest that smoke will become less
prominent from west to east by afternoon, which should allow for
relatively strong diurnal heating and moderate destabilization in
areas not affected by early-day convection. Effective shear of 35-45
kt will support organized clusters and possibly occasional
supercells from the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast, while strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates
will result in a favorable wind-damage environment within the
somewhat weaker flow regime across the southern Mid-Atlantic and
parts of the Carolinas.

Elevated convection may be ongoing or else develop during the
morning across parts of PA/NY, within a warm-advection regime
associated with the returning warm front. Depending on the timing of
this convection and downstream heating/destabilization, some
intensification of ongoing convection may occur by early afternoon.
Additional development may occur along the southwest flank of
early-day convection and related outflow, which may intensify and
move across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. In
addition to a wind-damage threat, some hail and tornado potential
may also evolve with any supercell development, given the presence
of favorable effective SRH.

Farther north, a broken band of storms is expected to develop along
the cold front and move across the Lower Great Lakes region,
eventually reaching a larger part of OH/PA/NY by late afternoon or
early evening. Additional storms may develop ahead of the frontal
convection, depending on the extent of heating in the wake of
early-day storms. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany this
convection, along with some potential for isolated hail. Rich
moisture and some enhancement to low-level SRH may also support a
tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially
near the effective warm frontal zone or any remnant outflow
boundaries from morning convection.

An initially separate regime of storm development and severe
potential is expected to develop along/east of a surface trough
across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. While deep-layer
flow will tend to weaken with somewhat southward extent, strong
heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates will provide a
favorable thermodynamic environment for downbursts and damaging
outflow winds.

Depending on the extent of outflow from prefrontal storms, frontal
convection may continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat
through the evening as it spreads southeastward.

...Parts of ID/MT...
A mid/upper-level low initially near Vancouver Island is forecast to
move east-northeastward as a shortwave trough across southern BC/AB
on Saturday. This shortwave will only have a glancing influence on
parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, but modestly enhanced
midlevel southwesterlies will be maintained across the region
through the day/evening. Widely scattered storm development is again
expected during the afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to near 1000
J/kg and effective shear of 30+ kt supporting a threat of isolated
hail and localized strong to severe gusts.

..Dean.. 07/17/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 05:07:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 180507
SWODY2
SPC AC 180505

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose
a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern
Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on
Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of
eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

...Southern Appalachians to the Coastal Carolinas/Southern VA...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will persist on Sunday. At the
surface, a cold front will develop southward across VA toward the
NC/VA border. Near and south of this front, a very moist airmass
will be in place (70s F dewpoints), and strong heating will foster a
corridor of moderate instability. Deep-layer flow will remain
modest, with effective shear values typically only around 20-25 kt.
However, steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near/above 2
inches are present in forecast soundings. Storms that develop will
pose a risk for wet microbursts, and a greater wind risk may evolve
closer to the cold front where sufficient clustering occurs.

...Northern Plains into northern MN...

A compact upper low/shortwave trough over Alberta will develop
east/southeast on Sunday, emerging over the Canadian Prairies and
northern Plains. As this occurs, a belt of strengthening
west/northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A
surface cold front will develop southeast across eastern/southern MT
during the afternoon, and the Dakotas during the evening/overnight
hours. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this feature will transport
modest moisture northward into the area. Steep midlevel lapse rates
will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. Initial convection may be cellular, posing a risk for
isolated large hail. Given steep low-level lapse rates, strong
outflow winds also will be possible, and some potential for a bowing
cluster of storms is possible if sufficient storm coverage occurs
ahead of the cold front from southern/eastern MT into the Dakotas
through evening. Overnight storms may persist eastward into northern
MN, though severe potential is less certain across this area given
stronger capping.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 17:32:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 181732
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts over the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, and
over the Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe storms
may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota
and Minnesota from late afternoon into the overnight period.

...VA/Carolinas into the TN Valley...
An upper trough will lift out of the Northeast on Sunday, with a
trailing cold front extending from southern VA westward toward the
KY/TN border during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, low 70s F
dewpoints and heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite
warmer air aloft. Modest west to northwest flow aloft will persist,
with 500 mb speeds around 20 kt near the VA/NC portion of the front.
Farther west into TN and AL, winds will be weaker but more northerly
at 10-15 kt.

Storms are likely to develop along the length of the front by early
afternoon, moving in a southeasterly direction. The most favorable
combination of mean wind speeds and deep-layer shear will be from VA
into NC, and corridors of damaging wind gusts may occur as various
clusters form along the front.

Farther west, the very moist and uncapped air mass should lead to southward-moving storm clusters developing from TN into northern GA
and AL through the afternoon. At least isolated damaging gusts
appear likely.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge over the area will break down as a shortwave trough
moves across MT and into the northern Plains late. Deep-layer shear
will increase through the period with 40-50 kt. Storms should
develop near the surface trough coincident with peak heating from ND
into southeast MT, and forecast soundings show elongated hodographs
and steep lapse rates favorable for a few supercells producing large
hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk will continue
east/southeastward into SD and MN through the evening and overnight,
as storm coverage increases with a southwesterly low-level jet and
height falls. Damaging winds should be the main concern, though a
large hail threat may persist if cellular modes should persist.

..Jewell.. 07/18/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 05:36:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 190536
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds
will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early
Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper
west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing
50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across
Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will
sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming
positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning.
Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s
dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease
east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme
instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI).

Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of
potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on
evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the
timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection
could have implications for where corridors of greater severe
potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless,
the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold
front, and airmass recovery is likely.

Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A
favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial
supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant
severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough
and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs
appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase
with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of
severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops
during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could
persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH
overnight.

...North Carolina vicinity...

Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on
Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a
surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading
rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will
result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest,
but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse
rates will support isolated damaging wind potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 17:35:00 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 191734
SWODY2
SPC AC 191733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.

...From IA across WI and into Upper MI...
A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of
50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be
stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool
temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates
over 7 C/km.

A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western
WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over
50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new
storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western
Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.

Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong
shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability
axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may
exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any
rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of
effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.

A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far
northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong,
with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or
above 0.4.

With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of significant wind damage and hail possible.

...Southern VA into NC...
Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak
low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z.
MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near
20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging
wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/19/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 05:41:38 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 200541
SWODY2
SPC AC 200539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN/EASTERN
OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND
PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

An upper trough will be oriented over the region on Tuesday, with
several shortwave impulses migrating through the larger-scale
system. At the surface, low pressure will move across southern
Ontario into Quebec. A trailing cold front will move across much of
the Midwest through the period, becoming positioned from western PA
to TN and northern AR/OK by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the main
surface front, surface prefrontal troughing is expected to develop
across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Rich
boundary-layer moisture will overspread much of the area, with
dewpoints from the mid-60s to low 70s F commonplace. This will aid
in development of moderate to strong instability.

Deep-layer flow will be strong for this time of year, with 40-60 kt
flow at 500 mb, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Forecast
soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with favorably curved
low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km across much of
the region. Convective evolution remains a bit uncertain, but a mix
of supercells and one or more bowing linear segments are expected
across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Significant severe (2+
inch hail, 65+ kt winds, etc) potential is unclear, and will largely
depend on storm mode and mesoscale evolution of convection.
Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, around -5 to -7 C at 500 mb,
and this may inhibit sig hail potential. Meanwhile, 65+ kt gusts
could occur if a well-organized bowing structure and stronger cold
pool can develop. Given warm/moist low-levels and limited low-level
lapse rates, confidence in this scenario is low. As a result, the
CIG 1 area from the prior Day 3 outlook has been removed for now.
Where supercells can be maintained, a risk for a few tornadoes also
is possible.

While details regarding storm mode and evolution remain somewhat
uncertain, the overall environment will support a severe risk across
a broad region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Swaths of damaging winds
still appear to be the greatest risk, though all hazards are
possible.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 17:32:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

...Synopsis...
High amplitude ridging will build across the western US with
continued progressive troughing across the east on Tuesday. Multiple
short-wave impulses will rotate through the eastern US trough, with
a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow traversing the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will shift south and
east through the period, with a surface low across southern
Ontario/Quebec. A pre-frontal surface trough will also be in place
across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the period.

...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the pre-frontal
trough from western/central New York into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Though there may be
potential for early morning cloud cover, it does appear that
sufficient heating/moistening will occur for at least moderate
instability to develop across the region through the afternoon.
Mid-level flow will increase through the day along with forcing for
ascent. It appears widely scattered thunderstorm activity with
several clusters/embedded supercells will be ongoing by the
afternoon. Highest confidence in transient embedded supercell modes
would be closer to the surface low and near the front across western
NY into eastern PA. Here, there may be potential for both damaging
wind, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Guidance
suggests the best signal for damaging wind will be across the
Mid-Atlantic, where several damaging clusters could occur. As such,
the Enhanced was expanded eastward into portions of the
Mid-Atlantic.

...Ohio Valley...
Evolution of overnight convection will play a large role in development/maintenance of thunderstorm activity across the Ohio
Valley Tuesday. It appears that remnant convection will be ongoing
at the start of the period near/just ahead of the surface front
across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana/Ohio. This will likely
re-intensify and continue to expand south and east during the
morning as daytime heating begins. Strong daytime heating and moist
profiles should support moderate to strong instability developing
though the afternoon. Storm mode appears to be generally linear,
with the greatest threat being for damaging wind given more linear forcing/initially boundary parallel shear along residual southward
moving outflow. As such, the primary hazard will be damaging wind.

Additional thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of the
front through the afternoon with increasing forcing for ascent with
approaching shortwaves. Strong deep layer shear may become more
boundary perpendicular supporting a supercell or two as the front
sags south, with potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Confidence in this scenario is on the lower end and the primary
hazard is expected to be a secondary wave of damaging wind
potential. Should storms be able to cluster and establish a more
organized cold pool, potential for some corridor of significant wind
may be possible. Overall, no significant wind areas were included
given low confidence in exact morning storm evolution and concerns
over generally poor lapse rates.

..Thornton.. 07/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 05:17:40 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 210517
SWODY2
SPC AC 210515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional
thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of
which could produce locally strong wind gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through large-scale
upper troughing across the Northeast on Wednesday. Relatively strong
deep-layer winds for mid/late July are forecast, characterized by
500 mb southerly flow around 45-60 kt, 35-55 kt at 700 mb, and 25-35
kt at 850 mb. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast
across Quebec, with a surface trough extending southward into the
Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is forecast to be located from eastern NY
to the central Appalachians and the TN Valley Wednesday morning. The
northern extent of the front will be rather progressive as it moves
across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon and evening. The southern extent of the front will more
slowly sag south/southeast across VA/NC. Ahead of the front,
southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass
beneath the moderately strong deep-layer wind fields.

While the boundary layer will be moist, strong heating will be
limited due to cloud cover and poor lapse rates. This will limit
instability, especially with northward extent into New England.
Nevertheless, sufficient instability coupled with the stronger
deep-layer flow will support organized clusters capable of wind
damage. The greatest risk will be focused across the southern
Mid-Atlantic where instability will be greatest (1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE).

..Leitman.. 07/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 17:30:50 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 211730
SWODY2
SPC AC 211728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional
thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of
which could produce locally strong wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
The pattern on D2/Wednesday will be characterized by upper-level
ridging across western US with a more progressive wave pattern
within a trough across the eastern US. A cold front will be located
roughly from the Mid-Atlantic south into the Carolinas and western
Tennessee. This will be the focus of thunderstorm development and
severe potential Wednesday afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...
Morning cloud cover will extend across New England to the
Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning, which will likely temper heating and destabilization with northern extent into New England. More filtered
heating through broken cloud cover in combination with moist
southerly flow should yield moderate instability across portions of
the southern Mid-Atlantic. This in combination with strong mid-level
flow and resulting strong deep layer shear will support potential
for a few organized storms/clusters capable of producing damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado. Highest confidence in this potential
will extend from the Carolinas to southern Delaware, where strongest
heating is anticipated. Strong deep layer shear will extend
northward into New England, which may support isolated stronger
storms with potential for damaging wind though instability becomes
less favorable further north.

...Eastern Colorado...
High based thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high
terrain in eastern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. Marginally unstable
and deeply mixed profiles may support a few instances of strong to
severe wind. Overall, weak deep layer shear profiles will likely
keep this threat too limited for probabilities to be included at
this time.

..Thornton.. 07/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 05:22:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 220522
SWODY2
SPC AC 220520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However,
locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the
central High Plains.

...Discussion...

In the mean, an amplified upper ridge will persist across he West,
with the subtropical high over TX shifting west toward the Four
Corners vicinity through the period. An upper shortwave trough
embedded within the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will
migrate southeast from the central Rockies to the Mid/Lower MO
Valley through early Friday morning.

Southerly low-level flow across the Plains will result in a belt of
modest boundary-layer moisture across the central High Plains. Steep
midlevel lapse rates will foster weak instability across parts of
WY/CO into western KS. Scattered thunderstorms will develop during
the afternoon and spread east/southeast across the central High
Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer will support isolated strong
outflow gusts. However, weak vertical shear and limited instability
will preclude severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 17:21:48 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 221721
SWODY2
SPC AC 221720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind will be possible the
central High Plains on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move through the flow across
the central High Plains within the region between the amplified
western ridge and eastern trough Thursday afternoon. At the surface,
weak low pressure will develop across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles
with a stationary front/boundary in place from eastern Colorado into
the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is likely across the
Front Range in Colorado, with an increase in coverage spreading into
the lower plains with the influence of the passing shortwave.

...Central High Plains...
Southerly to southeasterly flow across the southern/central High
Plains will bring moisture northward into portions of the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into western Kansas/eastern Colorado.
This in combination with steep mid-level lapse rates and heating
will yield a moderately unstable air mass from eastern Colorado into
western Kansas by the afternoon. Initially, storms are expected to
develop along the Front Range before moving into the lower plains
and western Kansas by the evening. Shear profiles across Colorado
will be fairly weak tempering severe potential. Nonetheless, deeply
mixed profiles may support some strong to severe outflow gusts. As
the shortwave shifts southward through the period, mid-level flow
will increase across western Kansas with resulting modest deep layer
shear increase. As storms/clusters move east through the late
afternoon/evening an organized cluster or two will have the
potential to produce damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 07/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 05:23:24 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 230523
SWODY2
SPC AC 230521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions
of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

...Dakotas into northern MN...

Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region
Friday afternoon into early Saturday in response to a shortwave
upper trough moving across Manitoba/western Ontario and the northern
Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will develop south/southeast
across parts of north Dakota and northern MN.

South/southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the front will transport
modest boundary layer moisture northward across parts of ND/SD and northern/central MN. This will occur on the eastern periphery of a
strong upper ridge building over the Rockies/High Plains. As a
result of upper ridging, warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer
may result in at least weak capping over portions of the region.
Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).

Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed with
height, will result in supercell wind profiles. Forecast soundings
show a well-mixed boundary layer, with steep 0-3 km lapse rates.
Organized cells are expected to develop by late afternoon near the
surface boundary and spread east/southeast with time through the
evening. A low-level jet is also forecast to increase during the evening/nighttime hours. The main risk with these storms will be
from large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. If storms can
become surface-based, a tornado or two also could occur. The
strengthening low-level jet could maintain elevated convection into
the nighttime hours across northern MN, but instability weakens an
inhibition increases with south and east extent across the Upper MS
Valley. This should keep severe potential relatively confined within
a narrow corridor across portions of the Dakotas into northern MN.

...SC vicinity...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon
within a moderately unstable and very moist airmass. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear as a surface boundary sags
south and east across the region. This may be sufficient for a
couple of organized clusters capable of producing sporadic wind
damage.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 17:27:28 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday,
with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High
Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move
across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into
the northern Plains.

...Dakotas/Northern Minnesota...
Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across
the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the
central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears
that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor
over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to
mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability
developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some
eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas.
Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell
development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be
the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be
able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to
the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into
increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase
given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs.

Storms will continue to spread eastward through the
afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing
inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to
elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.

...Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface
boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable
air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 05:21:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies
into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A prominent mid-level ridge will remain anchored over central North
America with the amplification of a downstream trough across the
eastern CONUS. At the surface, ridging will be maintained over the
Northeast with a weak front along the Southeast coastal areas. That
boundary will extend northwest to low pressure over the northern and
central Plains.

...Northern Rockies...
Forcing for ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough
cresting the ridge axis will combine with heating along the high
terrain to foster widely scattered thunderstorm development Saturday
afternoon. Area forecast soundings exhibit steep low/mid-level lapse
rates, a deeply mixed boundary layer, and MLCAPE approaching 1000
J/kg. Moreover, some enhancement of mid-level flow and resultant
vertical shear is forecast, which may support some storm
organization with the primary hazard being isolated severe wind
gusts.

...South Dakota into the upper Midwest...
Cyclogenesis is forecast over western SD along a weak front
extending from central MT into MN/WI. The air mass along and south
of the boundary in SD is expected to become quite hot with
temperatures of 100-110. And while moisture will remain limited, the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute
to modest instability during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
Isolated storm development is expected by afternoon into early
evening near and south of the front atop the hot, well-mixed
boundary layer with latent cooling processes in the sub-cloud layer
potentially leading to severe outflow winds.

Farther east into MN and WI, a significantly more moist boundary
layer is expected in the vicinity of the front, yielding a
moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon. However,
notable height rises are forecast with the expansion of the upper
ridge into the region, leading to uncertainty in whether
surface-based storms will develop due to the strengthening cap. On
the condition that storms develop and become sustained, seasonably
strong vertical shear will exist to support supercells with the
primary hazard being large hail. Low hail and wind probabilities
have been included in this forecast to acknowledge the conditional
threat.

Saturday night into early Sunday, there is some model signal for
elevated storm development along the nocturnal low-level jet. In
that scenario, sufficient instability and vertical shear are
expected to exist to support some severe weather risk.

...Southeast Arizona...
A slight enhancement of easterly mid-level flow is forecast across
the region, atop a modestly unstable, but steep-lapse-rate
environment. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the Gila Mountains and adjacent high terrain by afternoon with
a subsequent movement toward the lower desert floor. Some cold pool organization is possible in areas of storm clustering with an
associated risk for locally severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 17:35:38 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 241735
SWODY2
SPC AC 241733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies
into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move around the northern
periphery of the high amplitude ridge across the central US
D2/Saturday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions
of the northern Rockies, with more northwesterly flow shifting
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. At the
surface, a weak front will extend from a surface low over the
northern and central Plains to the Southeast coastal areas.

...Northern Rockies...
Deeply mixed boundary layer conditions are expected across the
Northern Rockies amid dry sub-cloud inverted-v soundings and steep
low to mid level lapse rates. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development is expected across the high terrain. Moderate
instability is progged along with strong deep layer shear, which may
support isolated stronger cells with potential for strong to severe
wind gusts.

...South Dakota and the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes...
Strong daytime heating is expected across the northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Daytime temperatures are
progged to possibly exceed 100 F south of the weak front from the
Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. With the building high amplitude
ridge, warming around the 850-700 mb level will result in capping
across much of the more strongly unstable air mass. It does appear
that portions of northern/central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin
and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may see enough weakening of the
cap to allow for isolated thunderstorm development by the afternoon.
Forecast soundings suggest veering wind profiles favorable for
supercells. Strong deep layer shear and linearly elongated profiles
will support large to very large hail and damaging wind. Though
low-level shear is more marginal, low tornado potential will exist.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop near the Black Hills
in South Dakota. Very hot and moderately unstable conditions are
expected amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Isolated
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind will be possible,
with potential for some clustering downstream and increase in
damaging wind potential into the evening.

...Southeast Arizona...
The favorable position of the surface high across the Four Corners
will bring moist easterly flow across southeastern Arizona. Some
enhancement of the easterly flow will allow for modest shear
profiles. It is likely that storms will develop across the high
terrain and move into the low deserts through the afternoon/evening.
Deeply mixed profiles and modest shear for organization will support
potential for strong to severe winds.

..Thornton.. 07/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 05:26:40 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 250526
SWODY2
SPC AC 250524

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds
are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into
portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

...Synopsis...

A dominant upper high will remain anchored over the central and
southern Plains with an associated ridge extending north into
central Canada. Within the periphery of the ridge, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest
through south-central Canada into the Great Lakes and middle OH
Valley. A series of weak mid-level disturbances will translate
through the stream of higher-momentum flow, the most notable of
which is a short-wave trough that will crest the ridge axis over
SK/MB. Modest height falls are expected downstream from that feature
from northern MN into the upper Great Lakes Sunday night/early
Monday.

At the surface, a cool front attending the SK/MB system will advance
through the northern High Plains into the ND-MN Red River Valley. A
weak front will settle south through northern parts of MN and WI
before stalling, while a separate frontal system extends from the
Southeast into the Midwest with another boundary.

...Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into the Mid Missouri
and Ohio Valleys...
Capping associated with the mid-level ridge and the subtle nature of
mechanisms to sustain forcing for ascent lead to considerable
uncertainty in the location, areal coverage, and intensity of
thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. That being said, a few
early-day thunderstorms appear possible across the upper Midwest
within a zone of warm advection and aided by the glancing influence
of a weak disturbance moving through the upper Great Lakes. The
storms would likely be elevated within a plume of moderate
instability and ample vertical shear, suggesting some potential for
large hail and damaging winds.

By afternoon, a reservoir of moderate to strong instability is
forecast across the Midwest with the various models indicating the
potential for diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development at various
locations from the mid MO Valley into lower MI. Confidence in any
one scenario remains low, and as such, a modest expansion of the
level 1/Marginal Risk was made across parts of the OH Valley to
account for the broad range of potential outcomes. Given the degree
of instability and seasonably strong vertical shear, higher severe
weather probabilities and related conditional intensity groups may
become necessary once forecast details become more clear.

As alluded to in the synopsis, stronger forcing for ascent tied to
the approaching Canadian disturbance and surface front may support a
more focused area of thunderstorm development over MN Sunday night.
Subsequent upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears
possible, which would increase the potential for a swath of severe
wind gusts.

...Southeast...
One or multiple weak disturbances aloft are expected to overspread
the region, along with a slight increase in mid/upper-level winds.
In response, a weak surface low may develop across upstate SC, along
a subtle front/confluence zone in the area. Thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon
along the front and developing sea-breeze boundaries within a very
moist and moderately unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapses and
high precipitable water content will enhance downdraft potential
with an associated risk for locally damaging winds.

..Mead.. 07/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 17:21:30 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 251721
SWODY2
SPC AC 251719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into
portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

...From eastern SD and NE to the Upper Great Lakes...
The forecast continues to have major uncertainties regarding
placement of the most likely severe storm corridors, with a wide
range of model solutions. In general, the most likely threat areas
include northern MN into WI and Upper MI, on the periphery of the
upper ridge and where stronger winds aloft will exist coincident
with strong instability, and from southeast SD into northeast NE
within a super-heated surface trough.

Beneath 40-50 kt midlevel northwesterlies, areas of strong
instability will develop with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates
and 70s F dewpoints, from parts of MN into WI. Models suggest
various storm clusters are possible late in the day, and these would
travel quickly southeastward with damaging wind and hail likely.
Some severe activity could potentially push south of the Slight Risk
area into more of northern IL, IN, and Lower MI. However, the
instability gradient will be a limiting factor for eastward extent.

Clusters of storms, possibly forming into a small MCS, are also
expected where very hot temperatures develop into SD. The deeply
mixed boundary layer combined with surface convergence within the
low pressure trough will support afternoon development over eastern
SD, with a corridor of damaging wind potential extending
southeastward into eastern NE and western IA.

...SC and GA...
Daytime heating of a high PWAT air mass will lead to moderate
instability during the afternoon. A surface trough will deepen over
the central Carolinas and into eastern GA, with an uncapped air mass
and weak convergence yielding scattered storms. Shear will be weak,
but modest northwest flow aloft should support corridors of damaging
wind gusts as storms develop southeastward toward the coast.

..Jewell.. 07/25/2026

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 26 05:41:52 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 260541
SWODY2
SPC AC 260540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and large hail are
possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...

Within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the
southern High Plains, a low-amplitude short-wave trough and
associated mid-level jet streak will move through the Great Lakes.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over WI Monday morning is
forecast to develop either south or southeast along a cold front
advancing south through the Great Lakes. The western extension of
that boundary is expected to stall over the mid MO Valley into
central High Plains.

...Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians...

Latest model data indicate the potential for multiple storm clusters
to be ongoing at 12Z Monday from northern MN into the Midwest within
a broad zone of warm advection and moisture transport centered
around 850 mb. The duration and extent of any early-day storms will
have implications on the subsequent air mass destabilization later
in the day ahead of the synoptic cold front. Where stronger heating
can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to
low/mid 70s beneath the eastern edge of an EML plume will yield
MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+ J/kg.

As alluded to above, there is considerable model spread in location
of storm initiation and subsequent evolution Monday afternoon into
night. That being said, storm development appears most probable
along the cold front in WI and lower MI Monday afternoon or evening
within a zone of strengthening forcing for ascent preceding the
short-wave trough. The presence of 40-50+ kt effective bulk shear
magnitudes will support organized storm modes, including supercells
initially with an associated large hail threat. The extent of any
tornado threat will be dependent on semi-discrete supercells being
maintained within a zone of stronger low-level shear from southeast
WI and southern lower MI into northern IL and IN, and perhaps
western OH Monday afternoon and evening.

Damaging-wind potential is expected to increase Monday evening into
night as storms coalesce into one or multiple cold-pool-driven MCSs.
The preferred corridor for that occurrence still appears to be from
lower MI into IN and OH, and perhaps KY, where an upgrade to a
level-3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary in later outlooks. Storm
clusters capable of damaging winds could reach as far south and east
as the TN Valley through Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains
Monday night, owing to modestly strong north/northwest steering
winds.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A southeastward extension of stronger, mid/upper-level winds is
forecast to overspread the region Monday afternoon into night with
effective bulk shear approaching 30 kt in some areas during the peak
of the diurnal heating cycle. Scattered storms appear possible along
a lee trough Monday afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable
air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. Steepening low-level
lapse rates will enhance damaging wind potential, especially in
areas of stronger shear where some cold-pool organization is
possible.

...Central High Plains...

Aided by a weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper
high, widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible within a moist
and moderately unstable upslope regime Monday afternoon into
evening. Forecast soundings indicate a well-mixed boundary layer
with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads, suggesting the potential
for a few severe wind gusts with the strongest storms.

...Southeast Arizona...

Model soundings indicate some enhancement of easterly mid-level flow
across the region Monday with effective bulk shear magnitudes up to
35 kt. The models indicate afternoon storm initiation along the
higher terrain closer to the international border within a
relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Some cold-pool
organization appears possible given the stronger vertical shear with
an associated risk of severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 26 17:14:52 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 261714
SWODY2
SPC AC 261713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible
across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday
night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in
the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and
southeast Arizona.

...Great Lakes southward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
Early day storms are possible from southern WI into northern IL
Monday, associated with a warm advection regime at 850 mb with
modest westerly winds at that level. The overall severe risk is
expected to be marginal for hail or wind with any such activity.

Later in the day, a surface trough is forecast to develop roughly
from Lake Huron southwestward into southern WI/northern IL, and
southwesterly low-level winds will continue to spread moisture
eastward into Lower MI, IN and OH. Scattered cells are forecast to
develop near this surface trough/wind shift, aided by the late upper
trough amplification. Storms are expected from eastern WI across
Lake MI and into Lower MI by late afternoon, and supercell mode
appears most likely given up to 50 kt deep-layer shear. A low-level
jet out of the west at over 30 kt is expected over IL, with
increasing speeds into IN and OH into the evening as the upper
trough amplifies and convection possibly merges into clusters or an
MCS. Models vary on how much storm coverage will extend into IL,
with the most likely areas from southeast WI across southern Lake MI
and into southern Lower MI, northern IN and OH.

Despite relatively warm conditions aloft, the elongated hodographs
from mid to upper levels, and substantial boundary-layer moisture
suggest cells may produce large hail. A tornado or two may occur as
well late afternoon through early evening, with storm mergers
overnight aiding outflow/severe gust potential. A categorical
upgrade is possible for parts of the risk area in later outlooks as predictability increases.

...Central High Plains...
Weak high pressure will exist over the northern Plains with a front
pushing south across I-80. Surface winds will back to eastern late
in the day, with corridor of higher dewpoints over southern NE and
northern KS, extending into northeast CO.

Strong heating will occur beneath the upper ridge, and an uncapped
and unstable air mass will develop. Apart from the monsoonal regime
over the Rockies, additional multicellular storms are expected after
21Z from northeast CO into southwest NE and northwest KS. The hot
temperatures near the moist plume and weak flow aloft will support
locally severe outflow winds.

...Southeast Arizona...
Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over far southeast AZ as
midlevel moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over
the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move northwestward, with
PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong
outflows.

..Jewell.. 07/26/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 27 05:21:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 270521
SWODY2
SPC AC 270520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central
High Plains.

...Synopsis...

Considerable trough amplification is forecast over the eastern CONUS
this period, aided by the propagation of the mid/upper-level jet
streaks from the Great Lakes and OH Valley through VA and NC. A
series of vorticity maxima is forecast on the cyclonic side of the
jet streaks, which will enhance forcing for ascent over the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the primary low
pressure is expected to deepen over the Delmarva with a secondary
cyclone over western NY. A lee trough will extend from the Delmarva
low south-southwest along the Piedmont, ahead of a cold front moving
through the TN Valley and central and southern Appalachians.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians...

Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially severe with damaging
winds) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the lower
Great Lakes into the central Appalachians. The longevity and areal
extent of the early-day storms will be a determinant in where more
robust air mass destabilization will take place during the
afternoon. The 00Z HREF calibrated thunder probabilities suggest the
most likely areas for persistent morning storms will be from NY and
PA into the Delmarva and WV. To the south of those locations,
stronger daytime heating appears more probable, which, combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, will yield
moderate to potentially strong afternoon instability with MLCAPE of
1500-2500+ J/kg.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and lee
trough as background forcing for ascent strengthens in the left exit
region of the approaching upper-level jet streak. The presence of
the mid/upper-level wind maxima will yield long hodographs with
sufficient vertical shear for supercells and bowing structures. The strengthening shear combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will be supportive of large-hail production with any supercells that
form. Otherwise, damaging winds will be the primary hazard,
especially with any storm clusters or bowing line segments. Some
tornado threat could also materialize Tuesday afternoon into evening
near and south of the Delmarva surface low where slightly stronger
low-level shear is forecast.

...Central High Plains...

Strong heating of a moist, upslope-flow air mass is expected to
yield a moderately unstable environment by afternoon with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development appears possible by mid- to late afternoon along the
high terrain within a kinematic environment featuring 30-35 kt
westerly deep-layer shear. Transient supercell structures appear
possible, which suggest some marginally severe hail potential,
despite the warm mid-level temperatures. There is some model signal
for storm clustering over the adjacent High Plains by evening, at
which point the threat for isolated severe wind gusts would
increase.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 28 05:42:02 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 280541
SWODY2
SPC AC 280539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds
appear possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern
Georgia and northern Florida. Isolated severe storms capable of
severe wind gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High
Plains Wednesday afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the Mid-Atlantic with
associated troughing extending south along the Atlantic Coast. Some
mid-level flow enhancement is forecast across the Carolinas into GA
Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with a weak disturbance moving
through the base of the trough. Elsewhere, an upper high will remain
anchored over the southern Rockies with a series of perturbations
rotating through the western into northern periphery of that
feature.

At the surface, a cool front will settle south into the southeast
Atlantic coastal areas and central and eastern Gulf states by
afternoon with the boundary extending northwest into the central
Plains. Farther west, a lee cyclone is forecast to deepen over the
northern High Plains with an associated lee trough extending into
the central High Plains.

...Southeast...

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s coupled with dewpoints in the
70s are expected to yield a strongly unstable, prefrontal air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE up to 3000-4000 J/kg. The glancing
influence of the mid-level wave passing to the immediate north will
combine with modest frontal convergence to foster scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon from central and southern AL into
southern GA and northern FL. While the strongest deep-layer shear is
expected to remain across the post-frontal air mass, a modest
increase in mid-level flow will overspread the frontal zone. That,
along with the strong buoyancy, high precipitable water content, and
steepening low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging wet microbursts, especially if some cold pool organization can occur.

...Northern High Plains...

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and resultant moderate instability
(e.g., MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) are forecast by afternoon to the
east of the surface low and lee trough. Strong daytime heating and
the approach of a weak mid-level disturbance from the west are
expected to erode the cap, allowing for widely scattered storm
development from late afternoon into evening. Model soundings
indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, which suggests the potential for high-based,
transient supercell structures with an associated risk for localized
severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. There is some model
signal for a potentially greater severe wind gust threat developing
over western into central ND Wednesday evening. Should that signal
persist, an upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be required.

...Southern New England...

A zone of enhanced low-level shear is forecast to develop to the
immediate east of the deep-layer cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday. Clouds and precipitation are expected to limit air mass destabilization within the zone of stronger shear, which should
preclude a severe weather threat. However, if later model runs
indicate stronger instability than is currently forecast, low severe
weather probabilities may be required.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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