ACUS11 KWNS 262148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262148
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-262315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1746
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Illinois into far
southwestern Indiana...western Kentucky...far northern middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 262148Z - 262315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing, with supercells likely to
mature in the next couple of hours. Severe wind/hail and at least a
few tornadoes are possible. A WW issuance may be needed soon
dependent on storm scale trends.

DISCUSSION...Multiple storms are are intensifying rapidly along a
differential heating boundary across southeastern IL into far
southwestern IN. These storms are already showing echo tops
approaching 55 kft and possible supercell structure. These storms
are intensifying amid an environment that is highly favorable for
severe storms (e.g. 6000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk
shear per 21Z mesoanalysis). Furthermore, the VWX and ILX VADs
depict around 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, which is more than sufficient
for persistent rotating storms given the aforementioned
buoyancy/deep-shear parameter space. The current thinking is that
any storms that become sustained, or intensify further, will become
supercells capable of producing at least some severe hail/wind. More
so, storms traversing the baroclinic boundary may ingest locally
higher SRH to support a brief and localized tornado threat. A WW
issuance may be needed soon to address the severe threat.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6NcO38EHtnMHiwYW_okR6WuPS8_roT2rox-v3sXEGk8lqzyM0r6YrMz0AHQR4Ysh2UifELXd2hNFDAIR7AAtxVfR7og$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39578902 37868665 37178643 36808649 36458688 36418716
36728762 37828862 38218894 38628924 39208946 39578902

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)