ACUS11 KWNS 270034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270034
TNZ000-KYZ000-270130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of western into middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 270034Z - 270130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts, a few of which may be severe, are expected
to accompany an approaching MCS. If the MCS maintains intensity
while approaching the KY/TN border over the next hour or so, a WW
issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of wind damage,
continues propagate south-southeast at approximately 40 kts. It is
plausible that this MCS will maintain intensity given the
combination of 4500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective bulk
shear (oriented perpendicular to the leading line) preceding the
cluster. Assuming this remains the case, the MCS is poised to enter
TN by around 0130Z. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be
needed beforehand to address the impending severe threat if this MCS
maintains its current intensity.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-evL06StDVSwx-TtHsl9obivuCBPv_gC2eKi3lfXkZibB6LnHDVKoQ2pfG_19DiIJrGKJWHqqVH3DEe8wsqJN_vxy78$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36168899 36408859 36538818 36638744 36628666 36388650
35848638 35348647 35138662 35028682 35038759 35068816
35098839 35208867 36168899

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)