ACUS11 KWNS 270104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270104
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Parts of VA/MD into western/central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 270104Z - 270300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible through
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong storms across VA have gradually
intensified this evening, with short-term guidance suggesting a
continued increase in storm coverage with time. While thermodynamic
profiles are not particularly favorable (with weak lapse rates and
rather cool surface temperatures), seasonably strong northwesterly mid/upper-level flow (as noted on the 00Z RNK sounding) associated
with a mid/upper trough over the eastern CONUS will provide
sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storm structures.

Relatively organized multicells and perhaps a couple of marginal
supercells may evolve with time across the region. With marginal
thermodynamic profiles and the onset of nocturnal cooling, storms
may struggle to achieve severe intensity. However, any organized
cells or clusters could pose a threat of locally damaging wind
through the evening, while a brief tornado and small to near-severe
hail cannot be ruled out with any persistent supercell.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9WvlZxMZDW1KB57NyRlGes9irkD9ICrmq6trO5hBB8OagxaupipI4XXYPinEFQX7JURKWP3stl6k4iyGj_IO0ZVlpjc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 35738124 38047892 39277781 39317720 39077660 38627639
37587704 36067843 35487938 35357980 35348040 35438095
35738124

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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