ACUS11 KWNS 270455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270454
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-270630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Northern MN/WI into western/central Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 270454Z - 270630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-storm threat is expected to increase overnight,
and watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues across parts of northern
MN/WI late this evening, to the cool side of a nearly stationary
baroclinic zone. The environment remains conditionally favorable
across the region, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and strong
deep-layer shear. In the short term, the strongest elevated storms
will be capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging gusts.

Most guidance continues to depict an increase in storm coverage and
eventual clustering/upscale growth, though this evolution has been
slow to materialize thus far. Increasing low-level warm advection
should eventually result in additional storm development, resulting
in an increasing severe threat overnight. Watch issuance is possible
if trends begin to support intensification of ongoing cells and/or
incipient upscale growth.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jiy7GJSfbZYiB0fnkbdZprpSqlzeG9DBNUnVV2P-FPRKxqP42rWh7OQxMWDtIl2wG7gG6XJY8p5dOBN8QwFQ4dAKm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 48979545 47689001 46258806 44948742 44108771 44118926
45159168 45719292 46849452 47739536 48889620 48979545

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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