ACUS11 KWNS 271027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271026
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-271230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1757
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Minnesota Arrowhead...far northern
Wisconsin...western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518...

Valid 271026Z - 271230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail will be the primary risk with elevated storms
moving southeastward through the Minnesota Arrowhead early this
morning. Isolated wind damage is also possible with the strongest
storms.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection and lift from a shortwave
trough have reinvigorated convection across the Minnesota Arrowhead
early this morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear
of 40-50 kts will help to organize storms promote a risk of large
hail. Though this activity is elevated, stronger downdrafts could
reach the surface and produce isolated damage. These risk will
eventually extend into far northern Wisconsin and the western Upper
Peninsula of Michigan.

..Wendt.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Gdsx7Aa5yOQVprmMBibO5363daObV83esNcWV40-g79iXrB7YEE5DPEuKjPnZKw7p1mpox6T-yHyHdHuD4qfctiHXo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON 47879221 48129228 48419047 47438817 47208800 46628842
46118942 46329032 47879221

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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