ACUS11 KWNS 271959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271958
ILZ000-272130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271958Z - 272130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts or hail could accompany
stronger storms this afternoon. The need for a watch remains
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are developing ahead of
a surface trough across central IL within a very moist and unstable
airmass. Strong northwesterly flow aloft is fostering 45+ kt
effective shear magnitudes, which could support organized
convection. However, large-scale ascent is nebulous across the area. Furthermore, looping visible satellite imagery shows a broadening
cirrus shield over eastern IL associated with convection further
east, and possible outflow/gravity waves spreading westward. It is
uncertain if this may be helping initiate convection or will temper
more robust development. While the overall thermodynamic/kinematic
profiles across the area generally would support some severe risk,
uncertainty is high. Trends will be monitored, and if intensity
increases, WW 520 and 521 could be expanded westward, or a new watch
issued if needed.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4CvmamF6yQEIR3dLU5vN4HOPoq4nVNT_BUJzMCKHg1txNxqOxYoI9kG1JR4cA3r54cqGxv_rhLlnxexP8ITC5wfCsIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41008800 40478795 40108837 40028887 40008938 40108989
40479040 40869041 41018977 41218875 41258823 41008800

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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