ACUS11 KWNS 272225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272224
AZZ000-280100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272224Z - 280100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible through
the afternoon into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
over the Mogollon Rim, and also across far southeast AZ. In the
short term, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will
support potential for localized downburst winds, and small to
near-severe hail. Modest midlevel easterlies atop low-level westerly
winds are resulting in 30-40 kt of effective shear, which may
support occasionally organized convection, and perhaps some west/southwest-moving clusters as outflow begins to increase in
coverage. This may result in a threat for strong to localized severe
gusts to reach lower elevations from late afternoon into the early
evening.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ad-UzRlAhf8Z9HtmHq2P8K7E0qOCTazPJMtjGMc5QV5Ks_7R1k8RDtZ8ZhOp5TvfX36-HfNJW_IC9ptkp3yOd_wdqE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 33341158 34001119 34501082 34371037 33680912 31540917
31280934 31201010 31291108 31511143 32771187 33341158

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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