ACUS11 KWNS 040239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040239=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-040445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central Wisconsin into far eastern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 040239Z - 040445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail may accompany the stronger storms
that evolve over the upper Midwest tonight.

DISCUSSION...Within a belt of around 30-kt midlevel northwesterly
flow along the northeastern periphery of a large-scale ridge,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are developing within a
plume of weak low-level warm advection focused across parts of
western WI -- potentially aided by a remnant MCV approaching the
region as well. This activity is developing along the eastern
periphery of a strongly unstable air mass with around 30 kt of
effective shear (sampled by MPX 00Z sounding). This will promote
isolated severe hail and possibly locally damaging gusts with any
stronger cores that evolve tonight.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4dzSxOde7zusG2fsI3zabg6A0zabBvisFF2dFownCh4YSlOF195blJqH2rPVBIHeU_uVCpidi= xQ43MWcHEp-vhJoMvA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 44179236 43769175 43509118 43359032 43558977 44018950
44478976 45449086 45749156 45799206 45599274 45049291
44709289 44179236=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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