ACUS11 KWNS 041811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041810=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...much of northern Minnesota...eastern North
Dakota...far northeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 041810Z - 042045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage over northern Minnesota,
with both large hail and damaging wind potential. Additional storms
with damaging winds are likely to develop into the eastern Dakotas.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing near the warm front along the
MN/ON border, with a supercell ongoing and likely producing large
hail. Meanwhile, a line of convection is ongoing along a developing
cold front/low pressure trough from central SD into south-central
ND.

Across the warm sector, temperatures continue to rise into the 90s,
while dewpoints are firmly in the 70s F. Despite warm temperatures
aloft, the high theta-e boundary layer is contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MLCAPE.=20

Given this uncapped air mass, storms are forecast to gradually
increase in coverage from the ongoing northern MN activity
southwestward toward a surface low over eastern ND. Initial cells
may produce hail, but outflows will eventually merge these systems
into a NE-SW oriented MCS, with scattered damaging gusts possible.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 07/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_WXQlaMeL8PlsnDRT1VJUKCy-UFSX0pfPiWlvOhuWW7y7bngwzwuLI38UGN6YeRvBmq0h1Ry6= yfTP4bhN2BVUbhmO9w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 46699349 46169511 45669686 45639747 45889779 46949804
47169805 47489798 48029746 48439618 48719433 48729294
48579240 48249186 47549189 47189229 46699349=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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