ACUS11 KWNS 112051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112051
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-112145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into north-central Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 112051Z - 112145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected this evening. All severe
weather hazards are possible.

DISCUSSION...SPC HRRR-based mesoanalysis shows eroding inhibition
ahead of a cold front across west-central Minnesota and into
northeast South Dakota. Surface-based cumulus evolution has been
mostly masked by mid-level cloud cover across the region. However,
some surface-based cumulus can be seen across eastern South Dakota
where breaks in the mid-level cloud deck are present. The lack of
more clear satellite imagery along the front is resulting in
uncertainty on storm timing. Expect storms to be along the front
where convergence is maximized. The latest HRRR shows storm
development between 23Z and 00Z. However, the elevated storms across
northeast Minnesota developed 1 to 2 hours earlier than the latest
HRRR forecast. Given the presence of cu across the area and an
uncapped warm sector (per SPC mesoanalysis), combined with slightly
earlier timing from the elevated storms, expect storm development
along the front between 21Z and 22Z. 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and
effective shear around 35 to 40 knots will support organized storms
and a threat for large hail (some 2+ inches) and damaging wind
gusts. Low-level shear will support a tornado threat, but storm mode
may quickly go linear which may limit the overall threat, despite
veering low-level flow and moderate speed shear. A watch will likely
be needed later this evening.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 09/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4x8B_N9OK_iSxQmpN4tEBVn3Ok_NlLREE6H1QNqvzMZCI-V7dk2uTHtZEq3vqaHu3a3JcGoxpGJBtHmz5rc3Y60-N2U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44539772 45349743 46329711 47289529 47829418 48009303
47939264 47569253 47169264 46959342 46479453 45739518
44979550 44309606 44029748 44539772

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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