ACUS11 KWNS 042209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042209=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas...northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486...

Valid 042209Z - 050015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across ww486
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Upper ridge is gradually shifting east across the MS
Valley. This is permitting a higher PW plume over the
Plains/northern MN to gradually advance across the upper Red River
region into the main body of ww486. Latest radar data suggests a
very weak MCV may be embedded within a more elongated corridor of
convection, just east of Jamestown ND, but this feature is subtle.
With temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90F across
convective-free areas, ample buoyancy is available for both the
east-west, and north-south corridors to eventually advance across
the remainder of the watch through the mid-evening hours. Hail and
wind remain possible with this activity.

..Darrow.. 07/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-7YPCKkPRjXqGpiVC7xHeTNNDeD-JVb7ej1HOTIUSs58Qw1Ke91aQKBaOsFijlzvHVJPrskN= mmbkL9itMpsbLrfKhk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47369867 49399165 47079166 45059868 47369867=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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