ACUS11 KWNS 050032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050031=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-050200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 050031Z - 050200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Multicells and weak supercells may produce large hail and
damaging gusts across portions of southwestern Kansas and the
Oklahoma Panhandle. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into multicell clusters with a
weak supercell just east of the Kansas/Colorado border. With surface
dewpoints generally in the upper 60s F in the region, these storms
are in a relative maximum in instability with 2100 J/kg MLCAPE per
the 00Z DDC RAOB. The VAD wind profile and 00Z RAOB from DDC also
shows some low-level flow with 30 kt southerlies at 1 km AGL. With
the ongoing supercell and any other transient supercells that can
develop in the strong thermodynamic environment, some severe hail is
possible. With time, additional clustering of cold pools may occur,
and storms may transition to a wind damage threat, though diurnally
increasing inhibition may limit the longevity of any severe threat
as sunset approaches. Due to the temporally limited nature of the
threat, a watch is not anticipated.

..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_3dfeneAl3T6s0XVl2upPOKPEl_EQD_y-olBjjF_kRI3CdRbOKCcviUmrfBJXPomHkq8YEExy= u1SN44qFTHpu967SOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON 36850041 36880152 37130195 37540200 38410200 38690188
39140077 39320002 38909912 37349946 36850041=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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