ACUS01 KWNS 211957
SWODY1
SPC AC 211955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast.
Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks.

...20Z Update...
The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast
remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For
details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513.

..Weinman.. 04/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/

...Upper OH Valley...
Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front
sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present
ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately
ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting
scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with
dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values
generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level
winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details.

...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN...
The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across
west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front
from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although
considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models
suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the
late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust
updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and
large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall
organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce
gusty winds and hail.

...SD...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY
approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance
that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220053
SWODY1
SPC AC 220051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later
tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels.

...01z Update...

Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern
High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max
translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection
is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into
northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this
evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level
warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast
soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust
updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail
production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than
marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities

..Darrow.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220529
SWODY1
SPC AC 220527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the southern and central Plains.

...Southern/Central Plains...

Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS
today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near
the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances
and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions.
Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later
today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return,
mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow
will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough
gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While
moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually
increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near
the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable
for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of
increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest
adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated
supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary
concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a
weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours.

...Elsewhere...

Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the
lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While
deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are
expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg
and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the
primary risks.

Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the
weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal
heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and
forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell
updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221248
SWODY1
SPC AC 221246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern
tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm
sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward
across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with
fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the
surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to
southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend
southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward
mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially
across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front
is anticipated through this evening.

Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for
convective development this afternoon and evening, even with
large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to
locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon
with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even
though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain
fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening
with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient
deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely
spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both
the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about
favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless,
this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large
hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve
through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe
wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was
made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the
forecast position of the front/dryline later today.

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move
little today across the Southeast. Generally modest
west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with
slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This
should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective
organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast
and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that
can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have
connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221618
SWODY1
SPC AC 221617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the
central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states.
Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west
TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a
developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline
circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several
12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over
northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms
reaching central TX overnight.

...IA/MO/IL...
A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning.
The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this
region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave
trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are
expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening,
with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms.

...Southeast States...
A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across
MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along
the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor
mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty
winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today.

..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030057
SWODY1
SPC AC 030055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is ongoing across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes,
along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, remain likely. Additionally,
tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very
large hail remain possible across a broad area from north Texas
northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

...01z Update...

An elongated corridor of severe thunderstorms has evolved from
southern Arkansas, northeast across the Boot Heel of Missouri into
northern Indiana. Numerous tornadic supercells are noted along this
zone, especially across the High Risk area from southern Arkansas
into southern Illinois. Multiple long-lived tornadoes have likely
produced significant damage in places, and this threat will continue
into the late evening/overnight hours.

Intense LLJ is forecast to translate across the western Tennessee
Valley into the lower Great Lakes, and this will contribute to a
northeastward shift of organized convection after midnight as the
primary short-wave trough ejects toward lower Michigan.
Environmental parameters continue to favor strong tornadoes and
damaging winds, along with large hail.

Upstream across Texas, a secondary low-latitude short-wave trough
will approach far West Texas late in the period. In response to this
feature, LLJ is forecast to increase across the Edwards Plateau by
03/06z, and strengthening is expected as the LLJ shifts toward the
I35 corridor by sunrise. Significant destabilization is expected
into north-central Texas late as moisture surges north. As a result,
supercells are expected to develop and spread east-northeast.

..Darrow.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030541
SWODY1
SPC AC 030539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the
southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most
concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western
Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are
possible.

...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region...

Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest
flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this
feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height
rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only
appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New
England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into
the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor
imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new
baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from
NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are
increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the
Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale
ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the
period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the
synoptic front.

Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will
extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this
corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE
north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just
south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated
convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period
along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce
large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking
is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a
sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will
be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate
along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid
afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the
frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very
moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large
hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that
maintain their surface-based inflow.

LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley
during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX
late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN
Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary
instigator in robust convective development.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071626
SWODY1
SPC AC 071625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of
northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas.

...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas...
The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough
with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across
the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath
relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a
northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a
northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists
across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have
recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133.

A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F
dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints
into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation
especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of
already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer,
oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will
continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of
tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall
potential expected to diminish by around sunset.

Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward
along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear
convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary
severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some
tornado potential will also exist.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071929
SWODY1
SPC AC 071927

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas.

...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon...
The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are
moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph.
Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt
midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection
is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain
the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL
to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat
with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the
primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes
remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening.

..Thompson.. 04/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/

...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas...
The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough
with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across
the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath
relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a
northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a
northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists
across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have
recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133.

A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F
dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints
into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation
especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of
already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer,
oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will
continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of
tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall
potential expected to diminish by around sunset.

Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward
along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear
convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary
severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some
tornado potential will also exist.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111630
SWODY1
SPC AC 111628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and
evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the
eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.

...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast
Virginia...
A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward
over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs
southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An
associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across
eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low
to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold
mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the
eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak
instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some
updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for
hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening.

A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over
the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear
will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a
limited overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111957
SWODY1
SPC AC 111956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this
afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast
Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.

...Discussion...
The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective
scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader
area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing
at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North
Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a
result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures.

Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern
Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak
surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this
region in the next 1 to 2 hours.

Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally
this evening.

..Goss.. 04/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/

...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast
Virginia...
A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward
over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs
southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An
associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across
eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low
to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold
mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the
eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak
instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some
updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for
hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening.

A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over
the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear
will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a
limited overall severe threat.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120040
SWODY1
SPC AC 120038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from
parts of the Atlantic Seaboard south-southwestward into northern and
central Florida.

...DISCUSSION...
The latest water vapor shows a trough over the eastern U.S. with
several minor perturbations embedded in the trough. At the surface,
a low is located off the coast of Virginia, with a cold front
extending south-southwestward from near the coast of North Carolina
into northern Florida. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along and near the front this evening. A strong thunderstorm will be
possible near an axis of instability over the north-central Florida
Peninsula over the next hour or two. However, the airmass will
become more stable, limiting the potential for a severe threat.

..Broyles.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120548
SWODY1
SPC AC 120546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big
Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening.

...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota...
A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific
Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak
translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough,
a surface low will deepen across eastern Wyoming, which will
increase low-level convergence across parts of the northern High
Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 40s F will contribute to weak
destabilization. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm
development is first expected in the Big Horn Mountains during the
early afternoon, with these storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations of southeast Montana. Additional storms will likely
develop in northern Wyoming, closer to the mid-level speed max. RAP
forecast soundings near the Montana-Wyoming state line by mid to
late afternoon have MLCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg, with 0-6
km shear near 55 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 9.5 to 10 C/km
range. This environment should support a threat for severe wind
gusts within the stronger downdrafts, with the greatest severe
threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121234
SWODY1
SPC AC 121232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN WY...SOUTHEASTERN MT AND EXTREME
WESTERN SD...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big
Horns and southeast Montana to the Black Hills this afternoon into
the evening.

...Northern WY/southeastern MT/western SD this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/OR this morning will progress
eastward over ID/MT/WY by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis
into the central Plains. Low-level moisture will remain limited
across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but forcing
for ascent and midlevel moisture should be sufficient for some
high-based convection this afternoon/evening across northern WY and
southern MT. Inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy and some
increase in midlevel flow could result in isolated outflow gusts of
50-65 mph.

..Thompson/Dean.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121614
SWODY1
SPC AC 121612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible across parts
of southern Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills this
afternoon and evening.

...Southern Montana into Northern Wyoming and Far Western South
Dakota...
A mid-level shortwave trough over WA/OR will move eastward over
ID/MT/WY by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis occurring
across the central High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain very
limited across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, with
surface dewpoints generally in the 30s. But, forcing for ascent and
mid-level moisture should be sufficient for high-based thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon/evening across parts of northern WY and
southern MT. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles with weak
instability and some increase in mid-level winds, which could
support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with this convection as
it spreads eastward.

..Gleason/Goss.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121938
SWODY1
SPC AC 121937

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible across parts
of southern Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills this
afternoon and evening.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this
update. For details, see the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 04/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/

...Southern Montana into Northern Wyoming and Far Western South
Dakota...
A mid-level shortwave trough over WA/OR will move eastward over
ID/MT/WY by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis occurring
across the central High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain very
limited across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, with
surface dewpoints generally in the 30s. But, forcing for ascent and
mid-level moisture should be sufficient for high-based thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon/evening across parts of northern WY and
southern MT. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles with weak
instability and some increase in mid-level winds, which could
support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with this convection as
it spreads eastward.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130047
SWODY1
SPC AC 130046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible this evening
from parts of southeastern Montana and northern Wyoming into the
Black Hills.

...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Far Western South Dakota...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
northern Rockies, with two narrow streams of mid-level moisture
associated with a mid-level jet extending northeastward from the
Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. At the surface, a
1000 mb low is located in eastern Wyoming, with a cold front
extending from eastern Montana southwestward into eastern Idaho.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 40s F
from near the Wyoming-Montana state line extending northward across
parts of southeast Montana. In this vicinity, the RAP has a maximum
of weak instability with MLCAPE near 300 J/kg. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings this evening in far southeast Montana have 60 to
70 knots of 0-6 km shear, and steep low-level lapse rates exceeding
8 C/km. This environment may support marginally severe gusts
associated with cells that develop near the front as it moves
eastward. The threat may affect parts of far western South Dakota
later this evening.

..Broyles.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130546
SWODY1
SPC AC 130545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Sunday from the upper
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the Intermountain
West to the central High Plains. No severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Great Lakes and lower
to mid Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough moves through the
northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will move into the mid
Missouri Valley as a cold front advances southeastward through the
central Plains. Head of the front, an axis of low-level moisture
will be in place from the Ozarks northward into Minnesota. Surface
dewpoints are expected to be in the 40s F over the upper Mississippi
Valley, where weak destabilization is expected. Along the northern
part of the instability axis, isolated thunderstorm development will
be possible during the day in parts of south-central Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. In this area, instability will be elevated and
mid-level lapse rates will be steep, suggesting that small hail will
be possible with the stronger cells. Elsewhere, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, sub-severe in nature, are expected this
afternoon from parts of eastern Utah eastward into the central High
Plains.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141951
SWODY1
SPC AC 141949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms ongoing this afternoon will
continue through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward
to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes are likely.

...20z Update OH Valley and Appalachians...
Afternoon satellite imagery shows several areas of convection
developing beneath a broad upper low over parts of the Midwest,
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Initial storms across IN/OH/KY will
continue to mature as the cold front moves east. Upper 50s to low
60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper
low will support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 40-50 kt of effective
shear, but veered low-level flow will support a mix of supercells
and linear clusters. Hail and damaging winds appear likely, along
with a risk for a couple tornadoes. Storms will spread east into the
Mid Atlantic this evening, mainly with a risk for damaging gusts.
Minimal changes were made to the outlook area on the western edge to
capture storm development farther west along the front.

...Midwest...
Near the core of a secondary vort max over the northern Plains,
broad-scale ascent was supporting scattered low-topped convection
across parts of SD, NE, and northwestern IA. Strong mid-level flow
will continue to move south as a mid-level jet intensifies. Despite
the limited surface moisture, the relatively cold mid-level
temperatures and strong ascent will favor some threat for small hail
and damaging gusts with shallow storms. Have adjusted the Marginal
southward across central IA where weak buoyancy (MUCAPE 200-300
J/kg) may allow storms with damaging gust potential to persist
farther south this evening.

..Lyons.. 04/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/

...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight...
Recent satellite imagery depicts a maturing mid-latitude cyclone
moving eastward across Lake Superior towards northeastern Ontario
with an upstream shortwave trough moving through the northern
Plains. Expectation is for the cyclone to continue
deepening/maturing as it moves into and through northeastern Ontario
today, while the upstream shortwave progresses quickly southeastward
through the Mid MO Valley and into the Mid MS Valley. As this
occurs, strong mid-level flow will spread eastward across the OH
Valley and over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States.

At the same time, a cold front will spread eastward across the OH
Valley this afternoon and evening, and across the central
Appalachians tonight. Current surface analysis reveals upper 40s to
low 50s dewpoints ahead of the front in the Middle OH Valley, with
the upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther southwest over western KY.
This greater low-level moisture is expected to surge northeastward
amid the moderate southwesterly low-level flow, combining with evapotranspiration to bring upper 50s dewpoints into upper OH Valley
ahead of the front.

This increase in low-level moisture combined with daytime heating
should be enough to destabilize the airmass ahead of the front
across the Upper OH Valley. Forcing for ascent (from a combination
of increasing large-scale ascent and forcing along the front) will
increase across this destabilized area, supporting thunderstorm
development during the afternoon. An initially cellular mode is
anticipated, with steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs
potentially resulting in a few supercells. Primary severe risk with
these supercells is large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. Some
damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible, although the lack
of higher low-level moisture will mitigate the overall tornado
potential. Strong outflow and increasing mid-level flow suggest a
transition to a more linear mode is likely, with several bowing
segments possible. There is also some potential for the development
of a singular, more coherent convective line. In either case, a
transition from hail to damaging gusts as the primary severe risk is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward. Clusters/line
segments will likely persist east of the Appalachians into VA
through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with
eastward extent and after 03z.

...SD to IA this afternoon/evening...
Low-level moisture will be limited, but surface heating beneath
cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based
buoyancy and the potential for low-topped showers and a few
thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of a digging shortwave
trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature
profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep
low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor
gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150051
SWODY1
SPC AC 150050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will continue this evening across
the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with severe wind gusts
and large hail as the primary threats.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge along the Atlantic
Seaboard and a trough in the mid Missouri Valley. A plume of
mid-level moisture extends east-northeastward from the trough along
a fetch of west-southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley
into the Northeast. At the surface, a trough is located in the lee
of the Appalachians, with a cold front moving southeastward through
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F, and instability is weak with
MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, analyzed by the RAP. Within
this pocket of weak instability, scattered severe storms are ongoing
from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, and western Virginia. At
500 mb, a broad belt of 60 to 80 knots of flow is located across the
southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, which is contributing to
strong deep-layer shear. This shear combined with the weak
instability will continue to be favorable for a severe threat this
evening. The more intense discrete cells could be supercellular with
a potential for large hail. The stronger storms will also be capable
of producing wind damage. If a short bowing line segment can
organize, then the potential for severe wind gusts could
increase...see MCDs 451 and 452.

..Broyles.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151300
SWODY1
SPC AC 151258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity.

...Northeast today...
A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to
the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern
periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC. An associated
surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast
during the day. In the post-frontal environment, steepening
low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will
support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of
sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes.
The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment
30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of
45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening
from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest
midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with
afternoon heating. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the
Sierra Nevada and east Texas.

..Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150547
SWODY1
SPC AC 150546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible today in parts of the Northeast, Four
Corners, south-central Rockies and from western Nevada into
California. No severe weather is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward into the south-central
U.S. today, as a trough moves into the eastern states. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Northeast as surface temperatures warm, and as a band of strong large-scale ascent moves
from west to east across the region. In the western states, a
shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Four Corners.
Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development will take
place today from the Four Corners eastward into the south-central
Rockies. A few storms may also develop from the Sierras into
northern California, ahead a mid-level low that will approach the
coast of California. No severe weather is expected today or tonight
across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151615
SWODY1
SPC AC 151614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of
the Northeast.

...Northeast...
Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the
eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot
eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the
left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered,
low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon.
Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal
heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to
steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level
winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective
wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any
small clusters/lines that can evolve.

...Four Corners into southern Colorado...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture
atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V
profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be
entirely ruled out.

..Weinman.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151953
SWODY1
SPC AC 151952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening
across parts of the Northeast.

...20Z Northeast...
The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor
modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the
Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across
the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely
continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this
afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to
be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have
trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH.
Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners
and western US, see the previous discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 04/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/

...Northeast...
Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the
eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot
eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the
left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered,
low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon.
Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal
heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to
steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level
winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective
wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any
small clusters/lines that can evolve.

...Four Corners into southern Colorado...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture
atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V
profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be
entirely ruled out.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160048
SWODY1
SPC AC 160047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the
Sierra Mountains and in parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe
threat is expected through tonight across the U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast tonight, as an
upper-level low approaches the coast of California. Ahead of the
low, thunderstorm development will be possible this evening across
parts of the Sierra Mountains, and from parts of southeast Arizona
into western New Mexico. Over the continental U.S., no severe threat
is expected through early morning on Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 04/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160548
SWODY1
SPC AC 160547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern
and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today,
as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of
the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and
central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By
00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma
into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be
mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level
jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into
west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level
convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective
initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated
large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the
potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will
likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and
southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail
threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest
Nebraska.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031234
SWODY1
SPC AC 031232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should
be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where
very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and
Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent
associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has
encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into
north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport
by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the
front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all
present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for
mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more
hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions
and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the
front across OK/TX into AR.

With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively
reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the
ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning
across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe
threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced
greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become
slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale
ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas,
persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed
thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the
afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just
south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level
airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to
support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a
threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado
threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface
based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level
shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for
strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated
north of the front.

Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants
of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this
morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable
severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal
and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm
coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions
later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing
isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form
along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat
for hail and damaging winds.

Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late
tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into
north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be
focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle
Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes
are all possible.

...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley...
With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly
winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone
extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic
States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the
convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today
across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley.

Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous
near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent
low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm
development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and
evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this
boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep
lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized
updrafts.

A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is
expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning
regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which
could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the
deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some
modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector
development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based
supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more
prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large
to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular
development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters
posing a damaging wind threat as well.

...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight...
Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight
(after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent
increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose
a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as
well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms
spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment.

...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as
a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some
details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the
front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds.

..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 032001
SWODY1
SPC AC 032000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TX TO MIDDLE TN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue to form and move along a stalled
frontal zone from northeast Texas into middle Tennessee and southern
Kentucky through late evening, with the possibility of very large
hail and a couple of strong tornadoes. Very large hail will be
possible after midnight from southwest Texas into cnetral Texas and
southern Oklahoma.

...Northeast TX to middle TN/southern KY this afternoon/evening...
Severe storms are developing along and to the immediate cool side of
a rain-reinforced baroclinic zone from northeast TX across AR and
middle TN/southern KY. Initial storm motions will tend to carry the
convection to the cool side of the boundary (especially across AR),
though there is some potential for surface-based supercells to form
and move along the wind shift. The warm sector to the south is
characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from mid 60s F
across TN/KY to low 70s F from northeast TX into southern AR. The
rich moisture and surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 80s
beneath 7-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates maintain MLCAPE ranging from
1500 J/kg east to 3000+ in northeast TX/northern LA. Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length is more than sufficient for
sustained supercells, while substantial low-level hodograph
curvature (effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) and the moist boundary
layer will support the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes
with supercells moving along the boundary. Otherwise, large hail of
1.5-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible with both the
surface-based and elevated supercells, as well as isolated wind
damage as storms train along and just north of the boundary.

...SW into central TX and southern OK overnight...
Within the large-scale trough over the Southwest, an embedded jet
streak will move through the base of the trough from Baja to
southwest TX by the end of the period. Mass response to the
approaching jet streak will result in strengthening warm advection
and the likelihood of elevated thunderstorm development over
southwest TX after 06z. Storms will subsequently spread
northeastward, with additional storm development expected by 12z
from northwest TX into southern OK. Steep midlevel lapse rates, a
rapid increase in moisture above the surface, and strong deep-layer
shear will favor elevated supercells capable of producing very large
hail (2-3 inches in diameter), as well as isolated damaging surface
winds.

..Thompson.. 04/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/

...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley...
With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly
winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone
extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic
States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the
convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today
across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley.

Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous
near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent
low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm
development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and
evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this
boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep
lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized
updrafts.

A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is
expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning
regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which
could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the
deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some
modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector
development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based
supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more
prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large
to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular
development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters
posing a damaging wind threat as well.

...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight...
Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight
(after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent
increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose
a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as
well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms
spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment.

...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as
a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some
details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the
front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101248
SWODY1
SPC AC 101246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of
the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and
wind are the primary concerns.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing is forecast to shift eastward across the
eastern CONUS today, as a series of embedded shortwave trough
progress through its base. The lead wave in this series is currently
moving through Lower/Middle OH Valley with a second wave farther
back northwest across the Upper Midwest/Mid MO Valley. This second
wave, which is accompanied by an 80 kt 500 mb jet streak, is
expected to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the
Mid-South vicinity by this evening before continuing more eastward
into southern Appalachians by early Friday.

Surface pattern preceding this upper troughing will be somewhat
disorganized and broad, with one weak low moving northeastward
across the Upper OH Valley and another moving southeastward across
the Mid MS Valley and KY/TN. A diffuse cold front is forecast to
shift southeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-South and
eventually the Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
anticipated in the vicinity of this front throughout the afternoon
and evening.

...Mid-South/TN and OH Valleys into the Southeast...
Area soundings reveal the steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater
than 7 deg C per km) extend throughout much of the region, supported
by a large area of cold mid-level temperatures (-18 to -24 deg C at
500 mb). These cold mid-level temperatures will help support airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough and cold front, despite relatively modest low-level
moisture. Forcing for ascent along the front, as well as more broad
large-scale ascent, will interact with this destabilized airmass to
support thunderstorm development across much of the region this
afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized along the
front, but initiation could also occur elsewhere across the region
given the broad ascent and large destabilized area.

Deep mixing is anticipated across the region, resulting in a
thermodynamic profile that is somewhat unique for this part of the
country. This profile will result in high-based thunderstorms
capable of producing strong cold pools, particularly given that
shear is quite strong and updraft organization is likely. Primary
factor precluding greater severe potential is the limited low-level
moisture and resulting modest buoyancy. That being said, the long
hodographs suggest storms could be efficient at producing hail
during their initially more discrete stage, with a trend towards
cold pool amalgamation thereafter. Consequently, several bowing
segments could develop, each with the potential to produce damaging
gusts.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101627
SWODY1
SPC AC 101626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions
of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today
over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs
rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance
eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through
the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move
southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN
Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise
forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the
day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this
afternoon and evening.

12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited
low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level
lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening
from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated
with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development
of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid
afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually
veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which
will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt
of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized
updrafts, including the potential for supercells.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to
occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This
initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated
threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong
deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should
develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a
larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and
Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete
should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale
growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late
afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support
efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered
damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 102002
SWODY1
SPC AC 102000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions
of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon
and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main
threats.

...20z Update...
Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong
heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors
of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface
temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints
generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should
support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger
tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some
clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established
may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of
TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are
possible.

Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular
storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the
evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very
favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs
favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter
cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale
growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more
clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging
gusts.

..Lyons.. 04/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/

...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today
over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs
rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance
eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through
the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move
southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN
Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise
forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the
day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this
afternoon and evening.

12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited
low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level
lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening
from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated
with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development
of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid
afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually
veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which
will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt
of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized
updrafts, including the potential for supercells.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to
occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This
initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated
threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong
deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should
develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a
larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and
Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete
should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale
growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late
afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support
efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered
damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110054
SWODY1
SPC AC 110052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts
of the Southeast this evening, northward into the southern
Appalachians. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a cyclonic flow pattern over
the eastern U.S., with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One of
these features appears to be in the mid Mississippi Valley, with a
second located in the southern Appalachians. At the surface, surface
dewpoints are mostly in the 40s F from northern sections of the
Southeast northward into the southern Appalachians. A low is
analyzed in northeast Alabama, where surface dewpoints are locally
maximized with dewpoints in the lower 50s F. An outflow boundary
extends from west to east from northern Mississippi to northern
Georgia. To the south of this boundary, surface temperatures near 70
F are contributing to RAP-analyzed MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This
instability will help maintain convective development through the
evening.

At mid-levels, a jet streak is currently moving through the central
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The left exit region of the jet
is located over northern sections of the Southeast. Strong
deep-layer shear and lift associated with this feature will continue
to support severe thunderstorm development this evening. Supercells
and short bowing line segments will likely be capable of producing
wind damage. The large-hail threat will be most likely with
supercells. This evening, the severe threat is expected to shift
southward with time into parts of east-central Mississippi, central
Alabama and west-central Georgia. By late evening, the severe threat
should become isolated and marginal as instability decreases across
the Southeast

..Broyles.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110526
SWODY1
SPC AC 110524

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from
the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far
southeast Georgia and northern Florida.

...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern
Florida...
At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S.
today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the
surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina
from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with
surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern
North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level
jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent
will likely support convective development this morning. From this
convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest
of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at
20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a
0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would
be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible.
Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in
the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in
areas that destabilize the most.

Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida,
a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface
heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near
the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat.

..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111239
SWODY1
SPC AC 111238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from
the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far
southeast Georgia and northern Florida.

...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over
the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward
from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface
cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas
today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north
FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination
with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb)
midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern
Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and
relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will
be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds
for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over
the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear
will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and
only sub-severe hail/wind is expected.

..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131241
SWODY1
SPC AC 131239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible from the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the
lower Missouri Valley. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern
High Plains to the Upper MS Valley by early Monday, as a remnant lee
cyclone develops northeastward from eastern NE to Lake Superior.
Limited low-level moisture return is underway within the warm sector
of the cyclone, though sufficient ascent/saturation is not occurring
until near the IA/MN border where elevated thunderstorms may develop
later this morning. This elevated convection will then spread
eastward over WI through the day and Lower MI by late evening.

Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into early tonight along a southward-moving cold front across CO,
and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the
frontal surface (near 700 mb) could support elevated convection
09-12z.

..Thompson/Dean.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131602
SWODY1
SPC AC 131600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to
the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri
Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern
High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low
develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes.
Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period
within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient
ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN
border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing.
Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated
convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower
MI through the late evening.

Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO,
and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the
front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by
09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain
too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Weinman.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131955
SWODY1
SPC AC 131953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to
the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri
Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20z Update...
The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the
western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing
over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward
through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain
possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet
increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast
to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous
discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 04/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern
High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low
develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes.
Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period
within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient
ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN
border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing.
Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated
convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower
MI through the late evening.

Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO,
and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the
front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by
09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain
too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140049
SWODY1
SPC AC 140048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the
overnight across parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. Isolated
storms may also develop this evening in parts of the northern Plains
and central High Plains.

...DISCUSSION...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a trough from the northern
Plains extending southward into the central High Plains, with a
plume of mid-level moisture extending from the central Rockies into
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible this evening near the
trough, mainly in northeastern Colorado near the right entrance
region of a mid-level jet. Additional storms may form just ahead of
the trough from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota where a
pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates is present according to
mesoanalysis data. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible this evening into tonight further ahead of the trough near
the axis of a low-level jet in parts of the northwestern Great
Lakes. No severe threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140600
SWODY1
SPC AC 140558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat
will be possible.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the
northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights
will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge
moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal
trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front
advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect
northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As
instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front
eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient.
Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form
and move eastward into the central Appalachians.

An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains
today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley.
Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of
the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky
into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat,
associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments.
Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition,
low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late
afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create
strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado
threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky
into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short
bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage.
During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to
spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and
isolated large hail will also be possible.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141250
SWODY1
SPC AC 141249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon
through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes will be possible.

...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight...
An initial shortwave trough and surface cyclone will occlude by
tonight between Lake Superior and James Bay, as an upstream
shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains toward
the OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will move
southeastward across the OH Valley today, while a corridor of
moisture return occurs ahead of the front from the Mid-South to WV.
Surface heating in cloud breaks will drive temperatures into the 70s
by early-mid afternoon, coincident with northeastward advection of
55-60 F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath the northeastward extent of
an elevated mixed layer. Though the upstream moisture source is
rather modest by mid April standards, recent green up and unusually
moist ground across the OH Valley will augment evapotranspiration.
These processes will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal
convective inhibition as low-level ascent focuses along the front.

Thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in a broken
band along the cold front from northern KY into southern OH, and
storms subsequently expand in coverage while spreading
east-southeastward across WV into VA through early tonight. The
moderate buoyancy and long hodographs will support supercells
capable of producing large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and
damaging winds of 60-75 mph are also expected, especially with any
upscale growth into bowing segments. Low-level shear/hodograph
curvature will be sufficient for some tornado threat, though this
will be modulated by the degree of low-level moistening.
Clusters/line segments will persist east of the Appalachians into VA
through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with
eastward extent and after 03z.

...SD to IA this afternoon/evening...
Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating beneath cooling
midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and
the potential for low-topped thunderstorms from SD into IA (in
advance of the digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern
MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat
for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow
through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph.

..Thompson/Dean.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141631
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon
through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes will be possible.

...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight...
Recent satellite imagery depicts a maturing mid-latitude cyclone
moving eastward across Lake Superior towards northeastern Ontario
with an upstream shortwave trough moving through the northern
Plains. Expectation is for the cyclone to continue
deepening/maturing as it moves into and through northeastern Ontario
today, while the upstream shortwave progresses quickly southeastward
through the Mid MO Valley and into the Mid MS Valley. As this
occurs, strong mid-level flow will spread eastward across the OH
Valley and over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States.

At the same time, a cold front will spread eastward across the OH
Valley this afternoon and evening, and across the central
Appalachians tonight. Current surface analysis reveals upper 40s to
low 50s dewpoints ahead of the front in the Middle OH Valley, with
the upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther southwest over western KY.
This greater low-level moisture is expected to surge northeastward
amid the moderate southwesterly low-level flow, combining with evapotranspiration to bring upper 50s dewpoints into upper OH Valley
ahead of the front.

This increase in low-level moisture combined with daytime heating
should be enough to destabilize the airmass ahead of the front
across the Upper OH Valley. Forcing for ascent (from a combination
of increasing large-scale ascent and forcing along the front) will
increase across this destabilized area, supporting thunderstorm
development during the afternoon. An initially cellular mode is
anticipated, with steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs
potentially resulting in a few supercells. Primary severe risk with
these supercells is large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. Some
damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible, although the lack
of higher low-level moisture will mitigate the overall tornado
potential. Strong outflow and increasing mid-level flow suggest a
transition to a more linear mode is likely, with several bowing
segments possible. There is also some potential for the development
of a singular, more coherent convective line. In either case, a
transition from hail to damaging gusts as the primary severe risk is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward. Clusters/line
segments will likely persist east of the Appalachians into VA
through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with
eastward extent and after 03z.

...SD to IA this afternoon/evening...
Low-level moisture will be limited, but surface heating beneath
cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based
buoyancy and the potential for low-topped showers and a few
thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of a digging shortwave
trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature
profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep
low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor
gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph.

..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171631
SWODY1
SPC AC 171629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from
late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western
and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or
greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of
tornadoes will all be possible.

...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight...
A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the
southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS
Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West.
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped
stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and
the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite
corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio
and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue
northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which
is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO
Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops
south-southeastward across the central High Plains.

Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in
moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern
NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial
thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in
eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple
point).

Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of
supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail
(generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts
(50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater
buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for
supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern
NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight.
Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be
possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A
narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes
this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near
60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible
with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this
evening into the overnight.

..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171959
SWODY1
SPC AC 171957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from
late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western
and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or
greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of
tornadoes will all be possible.

...20Z Update...
Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A
cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the
surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is
maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition.
Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity
should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for
more information.

Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery
depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a
well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While
satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the
EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development
near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the
evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with
initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging
winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional
details, reference MCD #459.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/

...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight...
A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the
southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS
Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West.
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped
stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and
the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite
corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio
and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue
northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which
is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO
Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops
south-southeastward across the central High Plains.

Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in
moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern
NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial
thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in
eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple
point).

Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of
supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail
(generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts
(50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater
buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for
supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern
NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight.
Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be
possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A
narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes
this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near
60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible
with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this
evening into the overnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180035
SWODY1
SPC AC 180034

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will continue early
tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very
large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts
of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible.

...01z Update...

Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is located
over western NE, extending into northwest KS. Later tonight an 80kt
500mb speed max will translate across KS toward southeast NE, and
this will encourage a marked increase in the LLJ across KS into
northwest MO by 06z. Latest radar data depicts isolated-scattered
severe supercells near the MO River from eastern NE into western IA.
This activity will spread east, aided in part by the aforementioned
LLJ. With time, storm inflow will gradually lift as the boundary
layer decouples, and storms will become more elevated. For the next
few hours very large hail remains possible, along with a risk for
tornadoes, and wind. As the storms become elevated hail will become
the most likely concern.

..Darrow.. 04/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180536
SWODY1
SPC AC 180535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the
southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late
afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated
severe gusts will be the main hazards, especially across the
southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated.

...Discussion...

Strong 500mb speed max is currently digging south across the
northern Inter-Mountain Region. This feature will encourage a
pronounced upper trough to evolve over the southwestern U.S. by the
end of the period. A broad zone of strong mid-level flow will extend
across northern Mexico-southern Plains-Great Lakes as height falls
gradually spread into this corridor of the CONUS. As this trough
deepens into lower latitudes, surface pressures will rise in the lee
of the Rockies over the Plains, and a sharp cold font will surge
into western IA-southern KS-OK Panhandle by the start of the period.
This boundary will likely serve as a focus for robust convection
through the period, and it should extend from eastern WI-western
MO-northern TX Panhandle by early evening.

Latest model guidance does not allow the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
region to destabilize appreciably as buoyancy will be somewhat
limited across this region. Even so, strong flow/shear warrant some
concern for convective organization, and some risk for wind/hail
will accompany frontal/pre-frontal storms as the boundary advances
east through the period.

Of more concern is the air mass across the southern Plains. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains from
eastern NM into northwest TX, just south of the front. The northeast
extent of this steep low-level lapse rate plume will likely extend
into central OK. Latest model guidance suggests strong SBCAPE will
evolve east of the dryline, and south of the front. As temperatures
warm through the mid 80s convective temperatures will be breached
along the dryline, likely by 21z. Forecast soundings support this
and supercells are expected. This activity should grow upscale and
spread northeast along the frontal zone. A considerably amount of
post-frontal elevated convection is ultimately expected, and steep
mid-level lapse rates favor hail with the elevated storms. While the
frontal zone will prove sharp, with significant undercutting of
updrafts, there is some risk for tornadoes prior to this occurring.
Latest NAM guidance has 500mb temperature cooling to -15C at FSI by
04z, thus very large hail can be expected with supercells. Cold
front will gradually sag southeast during the overnight hours, but
an extended convective event is likely from western OK into the
Mid-MS Valley due to the evolution of the longer-wave pattern.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181202
SWODY1
SPC AC 181200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the
southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes, mainly
from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts should be the main hazards, especially
across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. A
few tornadoes also appear possible.

...Upper Great Lakes to Mid Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing, mostly elevated thunderstorms aided by persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steep mid-level lapse rates should continue
to pose a large hail and damaging wind threat as they spread quickly
eastward across southern WI this morning. This activity should
eventually weaken later this morning as it continues moving across
Lower MI into a less unstable environment. Behind this initial
activity, the surface warm sector will attempt to spread northward
across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as longwave
troughing gradually develops eastward over the northern/central
Plains and Southwest. Given the positive tilt/orientation of this
upper troughing and enhanced southwesterly flow aloft expected to
persist through the period, a strong cold front should make only
slow southeastward progress.

A cap will likely inhibit surface-based convective development until
peak afternoon heating and frontal forcing can help lift parcels to
their LFC. Given nebulous forcing aloft, there is still a fair
amount of uncertainty regarding overall convective coverage this afternoon/evening. Even so, any thunderstorms that can develop along
or ahead of the front could pose a threat for severe hail and
damaging winds, with strong deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. This severe threat may persist for much of the
evening, and perhaps continuing into the early overnight hours.

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
The southern portion of the cold front is forecast to decelerate and
eventually stall over parts of OK later today. A dryline will extend
southward from a weak frontal low across northwest to west-central
TX by late afternoon. Even with widespread mid/high-level cloudiness
present, robust daytime heating of the moist warm sector is
anticipated across the southern Plains today. The low-level cap
should eventually be breached by late afternoon/early evening
(around 22-00Z), particularly along/near the cold front, and perhaps
the front/dryline intersection as well. Strong southwesterly flow
aloft and related deep-layer shear will likely support organized
severe convection.

Initial supercell development should pose a threat for large to very
large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With time,
upscale growth into multiple clusters/short line segments is
expected through the evening into early Saturday morning, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens. An increase
in the severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated as this mode
transition occurs. The threat for a few tornadoes remains apparent,
especially across parts of OK along/south of the front, as favorable
low-level shear will be present this evening where supercells may
still exist. Even with a higher concentration of thunderstorms
expected across the southern Plains, the messy convective mode this
evening and tendency for convection to be undercut by the cold front
currently limit confidence in delineating a corridor of greater
severe hail/wind potential.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181942
SWODY1
SPC AC 181940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the
southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early
Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains
where storms will be more concentrated. A few tornadoes also appear
possible.

...Discussion...
Aside from some minor trimming of the MRGL risk area across southern
Wisconsin, and from the western Oklahoma vicinity into southern
Kansas, no changes appear necessary at this time.

Extensive cloud cover along the frontal zone -- from the southern
Plains to Wisconsin -- continues to modulate heating/destabilization
in the near-frontal warm sector. These effects include a
persistent, stout cap across the southern Plains area early this
afternoon (per the 18Z OUN RAOB).

Still, storm development is expected late this afternoon, as
reflected in previous forecasts, with all-hazards severe potential
with more vigorous convection.

..Goss.. 04/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the
southern High Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes, downstream
of a mid- to upper-level low over the Four Corners states. A cold
front was analyzed from the Low Rolling Plains northeastward through
central OK late this morning. This portion of the front will
continue southeastward into the I-44 corridor but decelerate towards
late afternoon. A dryline extends southward from the front over the
TX Big Country.

Despite widespread mid/high-level cloudiness, filtered heating of a moist/destabilizing airmass will likely result in a weakened cap by
late afternoon. Initial supercell development should pose a threat
for large to very large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter. Model forecast hodographs and ample PW suggest a strong
tendency towards upscale growth into an HP supercell and linear
segment this evening from south-central OK northeastward towards the
western part of the Ozark Plateau. Coincident with this expected
convective mode evolution, an increase in the severe/damaging wind
threat is anticipated. The threat for a few tornadoes remains
apparent, especially across parts of OK along/south of the front, as
favorable low-level shear will be present this evening where
surface-based supercells and mesovortex potential may still exist.

...Lower MI to Mid Mississippi Valley...
In wake of weakened thunderstorm activity across Lower MI, a warm
sector will attempt to spread northward and destabilize
across parts of the mid MS Valley and southern/central Great Lakes
this afternoon. An upper trough will only slowly encroach on the
Upper Midwest through late tonight. As a result, southwesterly flow
aloft will be maintained and limited southeastward progression of a
cold front is forecast.

Model guidance continues to indicate surface-based thunderstorm
development will be inhibited until peak heating, when frontal
forcing and gradual erosion of the cap leads to isolated storms
developing from MO northeastward towards the southwest Great Lakes.
Uncertainty remains regarding timing, overall thunderstorm coverage,
and the exact evolution of this activity. Nonetheless, strong shear
through a deep layer and adequate buoyancy (due in part to steep
mid-level lapse rates), will support organized thunderstorms. The
stronger thunderstorms will probably pose a risk for severe hail and
damaging winds. This severe threat may persist for much of the
evening, and perhaps continuing into the early overnight hours.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181634
SWODY1
SPC AC 181633

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the
southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early
Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains
where storms will be more concentrated. A few tornadoes also appear
possible.

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the
southern High Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes, downstream
of a mid- to upper-level low over the Four Corners states. A cold
front was analyzed from the Low Rolling Plains northeastward through
central OK late this morning. This portion of the front will
continue southeastward into the I-44 corridor but decelerate towards
late afternoon. A dryline extends southward from the front over the
TX Big Country.

Despite widespread mid/high-level cloudiness, filtered heating of a moist/destabilizing airmass will likely result in a weakened cap by
late afternoon. Initial supercell development should pose a threat
for large to very large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter. Model forecast hodographs and ample PW suggest a strong
tendency towards upscale growth into an HP supercell and linear
segment this evening from south-central OK northeastward towards the
western part of the Ozark Plateau. Coincident with this expected
convective mode evolution, an increase in the severe/damaging wind
threat is anticipated. The threat for a few tornadoes remains
apparent, especially across parts of OK along/south of the front, as
favorable low-level shear will be present this evening where
surface-based supercells and mesovortex potential may still exist.

...Lower MI to Mid Mississippi Valley...
In wake of weakened thunderstorm activity across Lower MI, a warm
sector will attempt to spread northward and destabilize
across parts of the mid MS Valley and southern/central Great Lakes
this afternoon. An upper trough will only slowly encroach on the
Upper Midwest through late tonight. As a result, southwesterly flow
aloft will be maintained and limited southeastward progression of a
cold front is forecast.

Model guidance continues to indicate surface-based thunderstorm
development will be inhibited until peak heating, when frontal
forcing and gradual erosion of the cap leads to isolated storms
developing from MO northeastward towards the southwest Great Lakes.
Uncertainty remains regarding timing, overall thunderstorm coverage,
and the exact evolution of this activity. Nonetheless, strong shear
through a deep layer and adequate buoyancy (due in part to steep
mid-level lapse rates), will support organized thunderstorms. The
stronger thunderstorms will probably pose a risk for severe hail and
damaging winds. This severe threat may persist for much of the
evening, and perhaps continuing into the early overnight hours.

..Smith/Thornton.. 04/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190041
SWODY1
SPC AC 190040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern
Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially
across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated.

...01z Update...

Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow
from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the
Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures
across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit
farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH
persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has
struggled to develop.

1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later
this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the
cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near
SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is
notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data
suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the
eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should
gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours.
Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms

Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that
evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western
IN.

..Darrow.. 04/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190531
SWODY1
SPC AC 190529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas
into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during
the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York.

...Texas to southern Missouri...

Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging
south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into
southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z.
Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded
within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across
northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances
may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially
near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be
maximized.

Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have
evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into
the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity
for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is
gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind
profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps
some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of
convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary.

The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted
later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper
trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur
from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective
temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are
expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this
corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal
zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts.
Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any
supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for
tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During
the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX
into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short
wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into
southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into
this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be
warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time,
considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for
significant instability/lapse rates.

...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY...

Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY
today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast
soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered
convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately
develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps
some hail would be the primary risks.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191244
SWODY1
SPC AC 191242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into
southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible.
Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions
of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
Multiple bands/clusters of convection are ongoing this morning from
parts of eastern OK northeastward to the Ozarks and mid MS Valley.
Much of this activity should remain elevated, with isolated
hail/wind potential in the short term. In the wake of these
thunderstorms, an upper trough/low will eject from the Southwest
across the southern High Plains through the period. A front should
generally remain stalled across the southern Plains and towards the
Ozarks today, as surface cyclogenesis occurs over far west TX. As
large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains,
additional robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon
along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west
TX into northern Mexico.

Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, combined with the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, are expected to support
moderate instability across the warm sector, with peak MLCAPE values potentially reaching up to 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear
around 50-70 kt will support intense updraft organization with
convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this
afternoon. Initial supercells will likely pose a threat for very
large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter, along with damaging winds.
By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a
gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage
thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and
damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening.
Strengthening low-level shear in tandem with the increasing
low-level jet should also support some threat for a few tornadoes
with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this
evening. Given increased confidence in multiple intense supercells
developing this afternoon, an Enhanced Risk has been introduced
across parts of west-central to western north TX with this update.

...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast...
Instability is expected to remain fairly weak along/ahead of the
surface front extending from southern MO across the OH Valley and
into the Northeast. Even so, strong west-southwesterly winds through low/mid-levels may support a threat for isolated to scattered
severe/damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes
through the day. Multiple ongoing clusters of elevated convection
from the Ozarks to the mid MS and lower OH Valleys may become
surface based over the next several hours with filtered daytime
heating. Have therefore expanded the Slight Risk for damaging winds northeastward across these areas in a narrow zone along/near the
front.

A rather strong mid-level jet will overspread the northern
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today, as an upper trough develops
eastward over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Although low-level
moisture is forecast to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft
should aid in modest destabilization by early afternoon in a narrow
corridor along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Deep-layer
shear will be strong enough to conditionally support supercells,
although there should be a tendency for convection that develops
along the front to become more linear with time. Based on recent
guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for hail/damaging
wind potential eastward across these areas. Greater severe wind
probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a organized
cluster developing.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast.
Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks.

...Upper OH Valley...
Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front
sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present
ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately
ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting
scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with
dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values
generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level
winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details.

...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN...
The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across
west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front
from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although
considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models
suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the
late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust
updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and
large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall
organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce
gusty winds and hail.

...SD...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY
approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance
that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Thornton.. 04/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040048
SWODY1
SPC AC 040046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a
corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms
across Texas will develop later tonight.

...01z Update...

While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this
evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR.
Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest
convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley.
LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across
KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the
aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to
develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms
should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z
sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of
4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection
should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve
near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak
low-level convergence.

Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards
Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next
minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much
west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to
generate hail.

..Darrow.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040543
SWODY1
SPC AC 040541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast
Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...Arklatex to southern Illinois...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave
trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern
Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern
Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the
Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates
into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not
develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary
synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into
western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This
evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across
western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely
advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant
destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to
this region.

Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage
across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This
activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive
for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is
expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe
thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the
disturbance.

Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL.
Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast
TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the
weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy
along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived
supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop
across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail,
potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly
possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or
long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio
Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts
into this region.

..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041244
SWODY1
SPC AC 041243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast
Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a deep upper trough extending
across the western CONUS, with an embedded shortwave trough moving
through the southern High Plains. Another embedded shortwave trough
exists farther west and is currently moving across the central Baja
Peninsula. The lead wave is forecast to continue northeastward into
the central Plains throughout the day, while the second wave
continues eastward into northern/central Mexico.

At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary currently extends from a
weak low near DRT northeastward to another weak low in northeast TX.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of this
boundary, supported by a warm-air advection from a strong low-level
jet that covers much of central/eastern TX and the Lower MS Valley.
Expectation is for the low-level jet to persist throughout the day,
gradually shifting eastward in response to modest eastward progress
of the upper troughing. Eastern portion of the stationary front
should transition to a warm front while elevated thunderstorms
continue north of this boundary. Northward progression of this front
will allow the very moist airmass in place across east TX and LA to
surge northward into more of the Mid-South/Mid MS Valley, resulting
in a broad and unstable warm sector by early afternoon. At the same
time, the portion of the front over TX will begin drifting
southeastward as a cold front. Severe thunderstorms are expected as
this front interacts with the moist and unstable warm sector in
place.

...Eastern OK into the Mid MS Valley this morning...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across eastern OK and
northern/western AR are expected to shift northeastward this
morning, gradually losing intensity as buoyancy weakens with
northern extent. Expectation is for these storms to stay elevated
north of the warm front, but there should still be enough buoyancy
for large hail within the strongest storms.

...Arklatex through the Mid-South this afternoon/evening...
As mentioned in the synopsis, the warm front across the region is
expected to surge quickly northward, with very moist air expected to
advect into the region in its wake. 70s dewpoints are already in
place across east TX and northwest LA and consensus within the
guidance takes these 70s dewpoints into central AR and western TN by
later this afternoon. Modest heating within this airmass will bring temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s. These surface conditions
beneath a residual EML will support robust destabilization and a
large area of 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. A vigorous low-level jet will
extend across this region as well, resulting in robust low-level
shear. Some mid-level weakness is noted in forecast hodographs, but
the bulk shear is still more than enough to support supercells.

A combination of convergence along the front and strengthening
large-scale ascent is expected to result in initial development
around 18Z from far west-central/southwest OK through the Arklatex
into northeast TX. Given the strong buoyancy and shear, this
development should mature quickly into supercells capable of all
severe hazards, including strong to intense tornadoes and very large
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) hail. With the increasing ascent
and little to no convective inhibition, overall storm coverage will
be high and storm interactions could have a large role in
determining supercell longevity. That being said, environmental
conditions do support the potential for long-track tornadoes.

...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening...
A persistent low-level jet coupled with modest height falls and
perhaps even some convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will
support widespread elevated thunderstorms. Some hail is possible
with the stronger, more consistent cores as this activity moves
northeastward. There is some chance that storms along the
southernmost tier of this activity begin to interact with the warm
front (and potentially a weak frontal low) in the southeast
MO/southern IL/far western KY vicinity. As a result, there could be
a period where a more organized convective line develops, with an
attendant threat for damaging wind gusts.

...Southwest TX/TX Hill Country tonight...
Second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast to
cross northern/central Mexico and move into the southern High Plains
late tonight. Steep mid-level lapse and associated significant
elevated buoyancy will be in place, and thunderstorm development is
anticipated as the shortwave moves into the region. Strong shear
will also be in place, which will likely aid in the development of
supercells capable of large to very large hail.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041630
SWODY1
SPC AC 041629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast
Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight...
An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowly
eastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastward
over the southern Plains. Additionally, large-scale ascent will be
enhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over the
upper Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected to
move northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weak
wave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest AR
this afternoon and southeast MO tonight. The depth of the cool air
at LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supports
northward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon.

Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in place
with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates
of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by
early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both
along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm
development will be most concentrated along the front where ascent
will be focused and training storms are likely. More isolated
storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR
into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical
shear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, with
substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near or
above 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front in
AR). Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of
producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this
evening in the Moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail to
baseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with the
supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the
baroclinic zone. North of the front, organized storms will be
capable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts.

...Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight...
Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevated
thunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the Edwards
Plateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK. The storm
environment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with very
large hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damaging
winds to the surface.

..Thompson/Jirak.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 042001
SWODY1
SPC AC 041959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARKLATEX TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast
Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...20z Update...
Morning and early afternoon observations show the frontal zone
gradually expanding north/northwest from the ArkLaTex to the mid MS
and lower OH Valleys. As strong mid-level flow overlaps with the
destabilizing air mass, several clusters of severe thunderstorms
appear are ongoing and are likely to continue, with a risk for all
hazards into tonight. Minor changes were made to the northern end of
the outlook area, in accordance with the latest
observations/guidance.

...ArkLaTex...
The primary surface-based convective band, forming along and east of
the surface front from northeast TX to southern AR should continue
intensify with several supercells likely emerging and tracking
through the MDT Risk Corridor. Additional, more isolated storms are
possible within a pre-frontal confluence axis and across the warm
sector this afternoon. The 18z SHV and LZK soundings show very
favorable thermodynamic profiles, with considerable low-level
hodograph curvature (ESRH 330-500 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear
supportive for intense supercells. With observed and forecast STP of
5+, several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense appear
likely into this evening. The primary limiting factor for higher
probabilities continues to be the more meridional and front parallel
flow near the baroclinic zone. The numerous storm interactions
should favor upscale growth as a QLCS gradually emerges later this afternoon/evening.

...Lower OH and TN valley...
Weak convective development within the broader warm sector has been
noted early this afternoon across parts of TN and southern KY.
Strong diurnal heating amid 70s F surface dewpoints and steep
low-level lapse rates may allow these storms to slowly intensify
through the afternoon. Displaced from the deeper ascent near the
front, storm coverage and organization are expected to be somewhat
less than farther southwest. Still, 40+ kt of effective shear with
modestly large clockwise curved hodographs suggests some potential
for supercellular activity, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail,
and a couple tornadoes.

The greater severe concern is expected later tonight as upscale
growth from the convection over the MS Valley moves eastward. A QLCS
with embedded supercellular elements appears likely across parts of
western KY and TN into central KY and southern OH. Damaging gusts
and tornadoes are expected. Given the robust destabilization now
ongoing south of the warm front, have opted to expand the SLGT and
the ENH farther east across KY and TN for a damaging wind and
tornado threat.

...West TX...
Model guidance continues to show a broad area of elevated convection
developing after dark. Significant hail and some damaging winds are
possible with elevated supercells tracking north from the Edwards
Plateau toward the Red River tonight.

..Lyons.. 04/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/

...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight...
An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowly
eastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastward
over the southern Plains. Additionally, large-scale ascent will be
enhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over the
upper Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected to
move northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weak
wave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest AR
this afternoon and southeast MO tonight. The depth of the cool air
at LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supports
northward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon.

Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in place
with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates
of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by
early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both
along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm
development will be most concentrated along the front where ascent
will be focused and training storms are likely. More isolated
storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR
into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical
shear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, with
substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near or
above 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front in
AR). Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of
producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this
evening in the Moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail to
baseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with the
supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the
baroclinic zone. North of the front, organized storms will be
capable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts.

...Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight...
Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevated
thunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the Edwards
Plateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK. The storm
environment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with very
large hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damaging
winds to the surface.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050100
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of severe storms are expected across portions of Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley tonight. The
greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
continues from the ArkLaTex into southeast Missouri, including
potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes.

...01z Update...

Primary upper low has settled along the international border west of
TUS this evening. A secondary short-wave trough is expected to
advance into west TX later tonight when another bout of elevated
convection will evolve atop cooler air mass wedged deep into this
portion of the southern Plains. Hail will once again be expected
with this late-night activity.

Downstream, a slow-moving corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms
continues from the Arklatex-northern AR-southeast MO-southern IL.
Supercells are embedded along the frontal zone and this activity
will continue through the overnight hours as a weak short-wave
ejects toward the OH Valley. LLJ is forecast to strengthen into
southern IL over the next several hours and this could aid upscale
growth as warm advection intensifies into this region. With surface
dew points rising through the upper 60s to near 70 near the
confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, ample buoyancy exists for robust
updrafts. 00z soundings from SHV and LZK support this with SBCAPE in
excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the very strong deep-layer shear strong
tornadoes remain a possibility.

..Darrow.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050533
SWODY1
SPC AC 050532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley
northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible
in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky...

Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the
southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east
into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a
500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into
south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the
period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected
to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio
Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the
lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon.

High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing
northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew
points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will
lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this
portion of the warm sector.

Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends
along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will
gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to
serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding
area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave
across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an
attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period.

Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will
continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current
thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm
front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization
such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold
front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours. Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong
tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and
wind.

..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051231
SWODY1
SPC AC 051230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley
northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible
in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Lead shortwave trough continues to progress northeastward across the
southern High Plains, within the eastern periphery of upper trough
over the Southwest. A large area of elevated thunderstorms has
evolved ahead of this wave, covering much of central/north TX and central/eastern OK.

As this deep upper trough continues to gradually shift eastward over
the Southwest/northern Mexico, an embedded shortwave trough and
associated jet streak will progresses through its base. General
expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue quickly
eastward across northern Mexico and then more northeastward as it
enters the southern Plains. A second shortwave trough is expected to
drop southward across AZ, with this overall evolution leading to an
elongation of the upper trough throughout the period.

Surface pattern currently consists of a sharp cold front from south
TX through AR and the Mid MS Valley to a low over northern IL. A
weakening convective line is ongoing well ahead of this front across
western KY and western TN. The cold front is forecast to continue southeastward, as the upper troughing and associated shortwave move
eastward, interacting with the moist and unstable airmass downstream
to support strong to severe thunderstorms from southeast TX and
Lower MS Valley into the Lower/Middle OH and TN Valleys today.

...East/Southeast TX through the Lower MS Valley
Much of the ongoing elevated thunderstorms from central/north TX
into eastern OK and western AR are forecast to continue
northeastward over the next few hours while gradually weakening and transitioning to a broad stratiform precipitation field. Severe
potential within this area of convection will be limited due to weak
buoyancy and an unfavorable storm mode.

The portion of the cold front in TX is expected to remain
progressive as its gradually shifts southeastward with time. The
airmass downstream is already uncapped and moderately to strong
unstable. Thunderstorm development in the vicinity of this boundary
has been largely anafrontal thus far, but that is expected to change
during the late morning/early afternoon as large-scale forcing for
ascent increases. Strengthening low-level flow is anticipated from
southeast TX into LA during this time as well. These factors should
lead to an increase in thunderstorm coverage along the front while
also increasing the potential for more open warm-sector development.
The combination of a deep moist layer, strong buoyancy, and robust
low-level flow supports the potential for supercells capable of all
hazards. However, the meridional, line-parallel character to the
deep-layer flow suggests a trend towards a more linear mode will be
favored, particularly along the front. However, any storms that can
remain discrete and avoid disruptive storm interacts could mature
quickly to produce large to very large hail and tornadoes, a few of
which could be strong (EF2+). This tornado threat will be maximized
from East TX and northern/central LA into southern AR, western MS,
and southwestern TN.

The potential for open warm-sector storms will lessen with time as
the front moves across the Lower MS Valley and thunderstorms along
the boundary become dominant. A linear storm mode will favor
damaging gusts as the primary hazard, although the low-level flow
will have enough strength and veering to support a risk for
line-embedded tornadoes.

...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys...
Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently
over northeast TX. The boundary will likely sharpen during this
time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the
convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into
western OK progresses into the region. This will likely result in a
bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk.
However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded
tornado potential exists as well.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051641
SWODY1
SPC AC 051640

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley
northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts
are all possible.

...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday
especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing
MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT.
A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock.
This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately
north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel
to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon,
potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale
Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has
been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential
semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its
south.

Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60
kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado
potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development
that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced
effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat
curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level
temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector.
Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to
the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective
mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity
to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become
more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight
across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which
could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail.

...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys...
Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently
over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this
time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the
convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into
western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result
in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe
risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some
embedded tornado potential exists as well.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061628
SWODY1
SPC AC 061626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the
Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible
northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern
Virginia.

...Southeast...
A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some
preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak
supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border
vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into
east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am
CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby
warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near
70F) and some additional heating will lead to further
destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur
northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to
differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm
front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will
lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but
sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support
organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and
line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist
through at least early/mid-evening.

...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont...
Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon,
convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear
across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce
isolated wind damage.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061934
SWODY1
SPC AC 061932

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain possible
through this evening across parts of the Southeast. Marginally
severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of
the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia.

...20Z Update...
The only appreciable change with this update was to trim severe
probabilities behind multiple ongoing convective clusters across the
Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the
primary severe concerns with this activity through about mid
evening, after which thunderstorms should tend to weaken.

..Gleason.. 04/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/

...Southeast...
A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some
preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak
supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border
vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into
east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am
CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby
warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near
70F) and some additional heating will lead to further
destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur
northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to
differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm
front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will
lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but
sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support
organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and
line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist
through at least early/mid-evening.

...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont...
Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon,
convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear
across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce
isolated wind damage.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070051
SWODY1
SPC AC 070050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered convection may persist in portions of southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle. Isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado or
two remain possible this evening into Monday morning.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough within the Plains will continue eastward
progress through tonight. Mid-level winds may gradually increase
across portions of the Southeast. Convection along the surface cold
front will likely persist into Monday morning given continued
forcing for ascent and a very moist low-level airmass.

...Southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle Vicinity...
Convection continues this evening across the region. Lightning
trends further inland from the Gulf have generally trended down over
the last few hours. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints remain south of
convective outflow in southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle
and adjacent southwest Georgia. Given the moist airmass in place and
continued theta-e advection into the region, MLCIN should remain
minimal through tonight. 850 mb winds are expected to maintain their
intensity ahead of the convection and area VADs continue to show
some low-level hodograph enlargement. Storm intensity through the
overnight is not certain given the storm mode, gradual
boundary-layer cooling, and weak lapse rates (observed in the BMX
sounding this evening). However, given the forcing, strong
deep-layer shear, and adequate low-level shear, the environment will
remain conditionally favorable for a tornado or two into Monday
morning. The 5% tornado probabilities (Slight risk) will be
maintained for this reason. The strongest convection may also
produce isolated wind damage.

..Wendt.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070545
SWODY1
SPC AC 070543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across
parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the
Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some
intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from
the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface,
a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the
jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North
Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the
morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the
surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into
Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by
late afternoon.

...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina...
Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the
Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front
will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level
jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible
that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist
when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds
will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating
ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may
help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold
front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly
linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse
rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the
expected linear storm modes.

...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia...
Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south,
stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater
potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the
track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in
northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind
damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be
stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near
the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor
of higher tornado potential could exist.

..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071232
SWODY1
SPC AC 071230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of
northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario
through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this
larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong
mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent
troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the
Mid-South into New England.

Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC
border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the
ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows,
becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow
augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend
eastward from the northern low across southern VA.

The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast
states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across
the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move
east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward
progress.

...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas...
Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently
characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s
exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This
low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse
rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been
noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of
70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle.
Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as
updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist
in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts
and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this
morning.

Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout
the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy
farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower
dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale
forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the
approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the
right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate
to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the
day.

All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be
maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some
additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if
daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper
convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves
into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained,
with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the
low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191631
SWODY1
SPC AC 191630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into
southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible.
Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions
of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF
(in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR).
Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently
ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow
is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this
boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward
progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface
cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough
progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow
will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening
of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon,
dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from
southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined
with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As
large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains,
robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near
the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into
northern Mexico.

Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft
organization with convection that develops along/near the front and
dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated,
with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain
elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms
are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail
around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is
possible as well.

By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a
gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage
thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and
damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening.
The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level
shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening.
Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects
into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more
linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they
progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow.

...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast...
Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward
from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front,
with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid
MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the
boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is
anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest
airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more
orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley
and Northeast.

Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening,
and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to
support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as
convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with
time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit
15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191936
SWODY1
SPC AC 191934

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas
into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible.
Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions
of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

...20z Update..
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook.

Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the
dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial
supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and
damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the
afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See
MCD483 for more information.

Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped
from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast.
Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the
afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times,
with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484
for more information.

..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF
(in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR).
Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently
ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow
is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this
boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward
progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface
cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough
progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow
will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening
of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon,
dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from
southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined
with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As
large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains,
robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near
the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into
northern Mexico.

Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft
organization with convection that develops along/near the front and
dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated,
with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain
elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms
are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail
around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is
possible as well.

By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a
gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage
thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and
damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening.
The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level
shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening.
Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects
into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more
linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they
progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow.

...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast...
Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward
from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front,
with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid
MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the
boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is
anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest
airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more
orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley
and Northeast.

Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening,
and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to
support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as
convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with
time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit
15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200105
SWODY1
SPC AC 200104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into
tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west
Texas as additional thunderstorms develop.

... 01Z Update ...
The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk
(Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into
southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along,
southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield
an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong
tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The
observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind
of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380
m2/s2.

Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and
damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across
portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject
into the Plains.

..Marsh.. 04/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200513
SWODY1
SPC AC 200512

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far
southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind
potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri.

... Synopsis ...

A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern
Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on
Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of
the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the
development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma
by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast
through the day.

A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts
northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to
the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri
and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will
lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing
southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will
advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF
dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri.

Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps
northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and
increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should
result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the
surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri.
Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and
progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple
of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing
segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe
wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the
low-level flow.

The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before
beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the
mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability.

..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201247
SWODY1
SPC AC 201246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex
into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon
and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be
strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri.

...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning
across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley.
Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to
continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a
strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR
and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although
instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours.
Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to
eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and
mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level
jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the
Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will
also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a
cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains
towards the ArkLaTex.

Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding
the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon
across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that
at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture
will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in
tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime
heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this
afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow
corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold
front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized
updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken
line segments.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop
along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early
afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with
the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a
weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection
should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into
AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or
cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance
does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of
the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to
numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this
afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a
40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph
curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the
low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+),
especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained
versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells.
The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be
tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability,
and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201630
SWODY1
SPC AC 201629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex
into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon
and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be
strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will
shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing
eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast
southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system,
within the tight height gradient between this feature and the
persistent ridge centered over the Southeast.

At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at
15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas
and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue
northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by
early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the
Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low
will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon
and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys
through the end of the period.

...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois
vicinity...
An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing
convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the
risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more
substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in
the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as
eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with
eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks.

As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem
with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm
front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise
overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This,
combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area
should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady
increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon.

In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very
favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with
respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt
mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with
time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous
updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a
result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential --
including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize
across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds
back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low.
The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of
storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells.

Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of
damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type
structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection
advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the
Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours.
Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa
and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability
is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind
field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the
southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as
convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

..Goss/Halbert.. 04/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201955
SWODY1
SPC AC 201953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex
into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon
and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be
strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri.

...20z Update..
A broken line of thunderstorm activity continues near the surface
low in northeastern OK/southeastern KS and along an attendant
surface cold front extending from eastern OK southward into
northeastern Texas/southern Arkansas. This activity is expected to
continue to shift north and eastward through time as the low tracks
to the east through the afternoon and evening.

Storm intensity has been increasing over the last couple of hours,
owing to daytime heating ahead of the front, where MLCAPE around
500-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis. VAD
profiles across eastern Arkansas northward into Missouri show strong
low-level shear in place, with large curved hodographs and rich
low-level SRH. This trend will continue with the strengthening
low-level jet lifting through the Mississippi Valley into the
Midwest this evening, supporting risk for embedded supercells and
tornadoes, a few of which may be strong. In addition to the tornado
threat, bowing structures along the front will support risk for
damaging winds. See MCD#502 and MCD#504 for more information.

Thunderstorm coverage will increase along the southern portion of
the front in central/eastern Texas into Louisiana through the
afternoon and evening. This region is somewhat removed from the area
of greater low and mid-level flow, which will keep severe potential
more limited. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton/Goss.. 04/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/

...Synopsis...
A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will
shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing
eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast
southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system,
within the tight height gradient between this feature and the
persistent ridge centered over the Southeast.

At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at
15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas
and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue
northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by
early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the
Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low
will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon
and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys
through the end of the period.

...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois
vicinity...
An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing
convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the
risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more
substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in
the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as
eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with
eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks.

As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem
with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm
front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise
overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This,
combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area
should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady
increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon.

In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very
favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with
respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt
mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with
time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous
updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a
result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential --
including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize
across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds
back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low.
The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of
storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells.

Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of
damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type
structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection
advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the
Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours.
Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa
and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability
is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind
field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the
southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as
convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210047
SWODY1
SPC AC 210045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley
into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain
possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail.

...01z Update...

Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across
eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is
contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs
from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident
with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few
hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into
eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading
across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the
LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this
evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit
farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook.
Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE
for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the
maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to
account for this scenario.

..Darrow.. 04/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210530
SWODY1
SPC AC 210528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the upper Ohio Valley and
across portions of the central Gulf States. Gusty winds and
marginally severe hail are the primary risks.

...Upper Ohio Valley...

Mid-MS Valley short-wave trough is forecast to eject into the upper
Great Lakes region by mid day as 70+kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern IN into southern ON. 500mb wind fields will
strengthen across the upper OH Valley in response to this feature as
heights are suppressed ahead of the short wave. Latest model
guidance suggests the associated cold front will surge into western
OH/KY by 18z, subsequently advancing into western PA later in the
evening. Modest boundary-layer heating should contribute to adequate
buoyancy for robust updrafts, and scattered convection should
develop ahead of the front as temperatures warm through the 70s.
Gusty winds may accompany this activity, along with some risk for
marginally severe hail.

...Central Gulf States...

Synoptic front will trail across the TN Valley through the central
Gulf States today serving as the focus for thunderstorms as
convective temperatures are breached along this weakly-forced
boundary. While 0-6km bulk shear should only be modest across this
region, seasonally high PW values and MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg
suggest some risk for gusty winds and hail. Boundary-layer heating
should prove instrumental in convective updraft strength today.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211232
SWODY1
SPC AC 211230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast.
Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks.

...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes...
An upper trough with an attendant 55-70 kt mid-level jet will
advance east-northeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Great
Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec, while a cold front sweeps
eastward over the OH Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast through this evening. Modest low-level moisture will
advect northward ahead of this front in tandem with a strong
southwesterly low-level jet. Even though this moisture will remain
somewhat limited, filtered daytime heating and cool mid-level
temperatures should aid weak destabilization in a narrow corridor
along/ahead of the front by early afternoon. Thunderstorms that
develop along the front may pose an isolated severe/damaging wind
threat this afternoon and early evening given the expected strength
of the low/mid-level flow. Occasional hail may also be noted with
the strongest cores, and sufficient low-level shear should exist to
support a tornado or two. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward/eastward some based on latest guidance trends regarding
sufficient destabilization to support surface-based convection.

...Southeast...
The trailing portion of the surface cold front should make only slow east-southeastward progress today across the Southeast. This region
will have weaker low/mid-level winds compared to locations farther
north. Still, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by this
afternoon along/ahead of the front, while 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear aids in modest updraft organization. Any thunderstorms which
develop in this regime could pose an isolated threat for marginally
severe hail and damaging winds. This threat should peak by mid
afternoon, before gradually diminishing through the evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

...Northern Plains...
Gusty winds may occur with high-based convection this afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves eastward over the northern Plains. However,
low-level moisture and instability are both expected to remain very
meager, which should preclude an organized severe wind threat.

...Upper Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight across parts of IA
in a low-level warm advection regime. With MUCAPE forecast to remain
less than 1000 J/kg, the potential for severe hail appears too
limited to include low severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 052000
SWODY1
SPC AC 051959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River
Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind
gusts are all possible.

...20Z Update...
The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were
to trim severe probabilities from the west to account for the
passage of the ongoing QLCS over the Mid-South into the Lower MS
Valley region. Severe hail may still accompany the stronger storms
along southern extent of or immediately ahead of the QLCS.
Otherwise, strong to severe surface gusts and tornadoes (a couple of
which may be strong) may occur with embedded mesovortices and LEWPs
within the QLCS, as well as with any storms ahead of the line. See
the previous outlook (below) for more details.

..Squitieri.. 04/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/

...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday
especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing
MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT.
A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock.
This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately
north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel
to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon,
potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale
Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has
been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential
semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its
south.

Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60
kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado
potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development
that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced
effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat
curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level
temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector.
Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to
the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective
mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity
to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become
more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight
across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which
could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail.

...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys...
Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently
over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this
time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the
convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into
western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result
in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe
risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some
embedded tornado potential exists as well.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060057
SWODY1
SPC AC 060056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
A broken line of storms with embedded bowing segments and supercells
will continue east this evening/overnight through the parts of the
Southeast into parts of the southern/central Appalachians. Strong
tornadoes will remain possible in the Southeast and parts of the
Mid-South. Large hail and damaging winds are also possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough in the Southwest will make eastward progress
this evening into Sunday morning. A mid-level jet streak will pivot
into Ozarks/Mid-South. Convection will continue to be focused along
a surface boundary from near the Sabine Valley into Middle Tennessee
and parts of the central Appalachians/upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

...Northeast Mississippi/Northwest Alabama and adjacent far southern Tennessee...
The strongest ongoing storms are in northeast Mississippi where
tornadoes have been observed. Rich moisture and locally backed
surface winds are evident ahead of this activity. The 15% tornado
probabilities have been adjusted for these storms. Given convective
outflow in western/Middle Tennessee, it appears probable that some
decrease in storm organization will eventually occur as storms
interact with this outflow in Tennessee.

...Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama...
Convection should eventually make more progress eastward this
evening into Sunday morning as the trough pushes eastward. Observed
soundings from LCH/LIX/JAN showed large MLCAPE, but mid-level lapse
became more modest with eastward extent. Forcing from the
trough/surface front should allow scattered storms to continue
eastward. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy ahead of the front
should promote a risk for damaging winds, particularly with any
bowing segments that can develop. Large hail may occur with the
strongest discrete elements. Given the eastward shift and some
intensification of 850 mb winds into Mississippi over the next few
hours, low-level shear will remain strong and support a threat for
tornadoes (some of which could be strong).

...Portions of southern/central Appalachians Vicinity...
Diminishing buoyancy with northward and eastward extent should
generally limit the severe threat in these areas. However, strong
flow and continued push of the ongoing convective line could promote
a marginal risk for isolated wind damage.

..Wendt.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060547
SWODY1
SPC AC 060546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI
DELTA INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA/GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern
Virginia.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt trough will make modest eastward progress from the
southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley today. A mid-level
jet will intensify from the Mid-South into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will be
situated in Mississippi Delta arcing northeastward into the
southern/central Appalachians and though the DelMarVa. The front
will continue its southeastward progress through the period. A moist
airmass will be in place ahead of the front, particularly in the
Southeast where dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F appear
probable.

...Southeast...
A line of convection is expected to be ongoing early Sunday morning
in eastern Mississippi and perhaps parts of western Alabama. Though
the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient
mid-level flow parallel to the boundary should maintain convective organization. Primarily linear convection with perhaps embedded
supercells will be capable of wind damage and tornadoes. 850 mb
winds are expected to translate east along/ahead of the convective
line, maintaining a risk for tornadoes through the afternoon. It is
possible a corridor of greater wind/tornado potential could develop, conditional on where surface heating can occur. Portions of
southern/southeast Alabama into far west-central/southwest Georgia
are areas that could remain relatively cloud free. Overall, the
severe threat should be somewhat limited by poor mid-level lapse
rates/warm air aloft as well as the potential for cloud cover.

...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont...
Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the
morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given
the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms
may produce wind damage.

..Wendt/Supinie.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061241
SWODY1
SPC AC 061239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN
GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across
parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern
Virginia.

...Synopsis...
Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded
within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward
through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther
west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest
low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward
through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low,
extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of
thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous
line from south-central MS into northeast AL.

The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward
throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark
Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making
farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low
is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold
front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the
day.

...Southeast...
The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in
the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm
throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place
should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as
it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will
be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the
boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain
convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear
convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow
is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as
well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough
low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind
damage and tornadoes.

As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning)
increase in convective organization is possible, due to a
persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low.
This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential
for strong gusts and/or tornadoes.

...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont...
Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the
morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given
the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms
may produce wind damage.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081948
SWODY1
SPC AC 081946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms
may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early
evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black
Hills.

...20z Update...
No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold
front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern
Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far
southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits.

..Guyer.. 04/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/

...South Florida/Keys...
A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move
offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger
storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor
mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate
overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will
approach the region later tonight. But with the front having
progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe
risk) over land should remain very low.

...North-central High Plains..
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies
into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow
expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High
Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during
the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to
the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that
have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should
temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of
stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081623
SWODY1
SPC AC 081622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms
may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early
evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black
Hills.

...South Florida/Keys...
A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move
offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger
storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor
mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate
overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will
approach the region later tonight. But with the front having
progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe
risk) over land should remain very low.

...North-central High Plains..
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies
into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow
expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High
Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during
the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to
the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that
have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should
temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of
stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080517
SWODY1
SPC AC 080515

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to
the Black Hills.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward
through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida
Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper
ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the
Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the
surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for
convection.

...South Florida/Keys...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this
morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud
cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent
front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two
would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields,
gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity.
Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not
appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle
to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late
afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the
Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be
weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based.

...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills...
Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher
terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations
passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail
and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening.
Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity.

..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081232
SWODY1
SPC AC 081230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys today into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the
Black Hills.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A slow-moving cold front continues to push southward across central
FL. This front is expected to continue southward throughout the day, progressing through South FL and offshore by this evening. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this
boundary, but poor lapse rates and weak shear should mitigate
overall storm strength.

A positively tilted shortwave trough is expected to track eastward
across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday
morning. A post-frontal airmass will exist across the peninsula
whenever this shortwave arrives, which will keep thunderstorm
chances over land very low.

Farther north and west, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while
moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest
into the northern High Plains. Some high-based convection is
possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast MT/northern
WY into the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent occurs over
regions that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak
buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few gusty
downdrafts are possible.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080055
SWODY1
SPC AC 080053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe storms capable of wind damage and
perhaps a brief tornado are possible in parts of eastern North
Carolina into mid-evening before activity moves offshore.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough continues eastward this evening and is
supporting convection along a cold front near the southeastern
Atlantic coastline. This front is nearly offshore in southeastern
Georgia and much of coastal South Carolina. In eastern North
Carolina, the front will reach the coast sometime in the 10 PM - 12
AM EDT.

...Eastern North Carolina...
One more prominent linear segment is moving northeastward south of a
warm front just south of the Virginia border. The observed 00Z
sounding from Morehead showed poor mid-level lapse rates. Objective mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE may be around 250-500 J/kg. Continued
forcing from the approaching trough and strong effective shear
(45-55 kts) will support a few more hours of wind damage and brief
tornado potential this evening.

..Wendt.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090057
SWODY1
SPC AC 090055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected through Wednesday morning.
Isolated strong storms remain possible over the next few hours in
South Florida and the Keys as well as western South Dakota.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough continues to approach the Florida Peninsula this
evening. A weak surface boundary that is currently offshore may
provide some focus for thunderstorms tonight. Another shortwave
trough in Montana is responsible for isolated strong convection
moving into western South Dakota. This activity may continue another
couple of hours before weakening.

...South Dakota...
The low-level airmass is quite dry; however, moisture is sufficient
for isolated convection on the southern fringe of the shortwave
trough. Small hail may occur with this activity, but the dry
boundary layer is more likely to support strong to potentially
marginally severe wind gusts. Activity should weaken over the next
couple of hours and coverage will remain too isolated for adding
severe probabilities.

...South Florida/Keys...
The approach of the shortwave trough may promote a modest increase
in convection along and near the surface boundary. Given diminishing
surface temperatures and increase MLCIN, storms will become
increasingly elevated with time. A strong gust could occur with the
strongest storms, but this potential should remain spatially
limited.

..Wendt.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090522
SWODY1
SPC AC 090521

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper
Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not
expected.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will
move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo
modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly
southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned
within parts of the Upper Midwest with a cold front southwestward
from the low into the central/southern Plains.

With the recent intrusion of cooler air into much of the Gulf,
moisture availability will be quite limited -- which is also quite
evident in this evenings observed soundings in the Southeast. Even
so, some thunderstorm activity will be possible as warm-air
advection into the warm front promotes lift. To the northwest of the
surface low, steep low/mid-level lapse rates may allow for isolated
to widely scattered storms in parts of the northern/central Plains.

...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning driven by
the amplifying shortwave trough and low-level warm advection.
Mid/upper-level clouds are already moving into the region late on
Tuesday and forecast soundings suggest some cloud cover will persist
into the afternoon as well. With a generally dry boundary layer and
weak destabilization, most activity in Illinois into the Ohio Valley
region will likely be elevated. severe potential appears quite
limited, but small hail could occur with the strongest storms.

Closer to the surface low/cold front in northeastern Missouri and
far west-central Illinois, it is possible that greater
destabilization could occur. Models show some signal for a narrow
zone of greater moisture return ahead of the front and these areas
will be on the eastern periphery of a steep mid-level lapse rate
plume. Current surface observations still suggest the moisture
return depicted in models may be too aggressive. If upper 40s F
dewpoints can reach farther north than expected, there would be some
potential for a surface based storm. The upper-bound severe
potential would likely be marginally severe hail. Uncertainty is too
high and coverage is too low for unconditional severe probabilities.

...Lower Missouri Valley Vicinity...
Despite dewpoints around the mid 30s F, very cold temperatures aloft
(-20 to -24 C at 500 mb) will support isolated to widely scattered
convection during the afternoon. Buoyancy is expected to be quite
weak, but large boundary layer dewpoint depressions could promote
some stronger wind gusts.

..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091235
SWODY1
SPC AC 091234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central
Plains. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is
forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the
Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this
shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An
attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move
eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS
Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning.
An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and
OK.

Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front,
keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development
along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms
across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection
along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue
throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY,
and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is
possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited
buoyancy.

Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is
expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the
northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this
shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak
heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the
Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as
farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold
mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be
very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result
in a strong downdraft or two.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091616
SWODY1
SPC AC 091615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to
develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather
meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm
coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient
large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated
convection capable of producing lightning through the period.
Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based
thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized
severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091948
SWODY1
SPC AC 091947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of
the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and
eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20z Update...
Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE
and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe
thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion.

..Lyons.. 04/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to
develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather
meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm
coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient
large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated
convection capable of producing lightning through the period.
Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based
thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized
severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100053
SWODY1
SPC AC 100052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern
FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...01z Outlook...

Earlier thoughts regarding convection remain. Strong mid-level speed
max is digging southeast across the central Plains and this will
allow steep mid-level lapse rates to overspread areas along a
corridor from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Isolated
thunderstorms are currently noted along this corridor and this type
of convection can be expected into the pre-dawn hours, especially
over the lower OH Valley where LLJ will be focused. Weak instability
does not warrant any meaningful risk of severe.

..Darrow.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100531
SWODY1
SPC AC 100530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of
the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and
wind are the primary concerns.

...Discussion...

Strong 500mb speed max is translating across the central Plains
toward the Mid South. This will allow an upper trough to deepen east
of the MS River, and heights will fall accordingly as seasonally
cool mid-tropospheric temperatures settle into this region. Latest
model guidance suggests 500mb, -20C isotherm will extend across
northern GA/AL/MS by 18z, which results in very steep lapse rates
north of the digging jet.

Surface reflection to this digging trough is somewhat disjointed and
not particularly focused, though a synoptic front should extend
across southeast MO-central AR-northeast TX by mid day. Subsequent
southeast movement will take this boundary to near the central Gulf
Coast by sunrise Friday. Current thinking is strong boundary-layer
heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19-20z
across portions of MO/IL along the weakly convergent front. While
moisture is quite limited ahead of the front, cool profiles favor
the potential for robust convection. This activity will spread
southeast toward the northern Gulf States with an attendant threat
of hail and wind.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161244
SWODY1
SPC AC 161242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible
this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central
Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight...
Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to
the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward
the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off
the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over
the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains.
Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX
to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development
will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX
Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently
deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of
producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts.
Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that
form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight
with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection.

..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025

$$

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