AWUS01 KWNH 040114
FFGMPD
SDZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0862
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
913 PM EDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...Central South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040115Z - 040600Z

SUMMARY...Narrow axis of slow moving, potentially repeating
thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr rates and localized totals to 3".
Localized flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes a very sharp elongated trof
across the Missouri River Valley with a few vorticity centers
dotted along it, including one over east-central SD. Stronger
upstream jet energy is over-topping the ridge across the Central
Rockies placing weaker upper-level flow but also sufficient
divergence to support outflow for thunderstorm activity. In the
lower levels, the wind field is generally convergent along a weak
surface frontal boundary between KMBG toward a weak surface low
between K9V9 and KICR. While winds, there are pockets of stronger
moisture convergence to support/maintain convective development.=20
CIRA LPW/TPW shows core of locally enhanced moisture exists
through and just east of the Missouri River in SDAK with surface
Tds of mid-60s to upper-60s east of the front while core of
mid-level moisture streams in to reduce mid-level evaporation.
Total Pwats of 1.5" along and east of the instability axis along
the front will allow for moderately intense rainfall production.=20
MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will provide strong updraft and
isallobaric moisture influx to support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates.=20=20

The weaker overall low level convergence (5-10kts) will continue
to support a scattered to widely scattered nature to the
convective pattern, though a bit more increased concentration is
expected near the center of the 850mb low across south-central SD.
Recent Visible imagery from GOES-E depicts this increase in
recent convective development, which may increase the potential
for cell mergers or repeating in the next few hours. Deep layer
steering flow is generally parallel to the frontal zone with a
slight eastward deflection expected as the LLJ strengthens/veers.
As such, it is possible for a widely scattered incident of 3"
totals. Given FFG values are generally 1.5"/hr and between
2-3"/3hrs a localized incident or two of flash flooding will be
considered possible through the early overnight period; however,
the risk will not exceed the Sand Hills area of northern-NEB and
hence why is not included in the MPD risk area (even though
environment is slightly more conducive for higher totals further
south).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-IUBTAEDGhiACwNjNJPseUjTuTFIEnuVSE7kvE858sPdkuVbeuRXxJKkqWSihJehrfq6= 1QLX22DQZXqJoUHNTVScxM8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45879943 45879899 45769862 45429837 44829827=20
43909824 43669823 43209839 43019880 43019950=20
43149996 43540020 44150025 45110010 45619988=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 040413
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-041012-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0863
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1212 AM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...far southern Alabama, parts of the Florida
Panhandle, and far southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040412Z - 041012Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue through the
overnight hours, although this threat should remain isolated.

Discussion...Scattered deep convection continues to focus on a
surface frontal boundary located near the AL/FL border region just south/southwest of Dothan. Just ahead of this boundary, an
abundantly moist airmass (2+ inch PW values, 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
was sustaining deep convection, while weak kinematics and weak
mid-level shortwave troughs were aiding in ascent to support
slow-moving convection. Areas of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates were
noted immediately along the frontal boundary just west/southwest
of Dothan earlier.

Although recent convective trends indicate a downtick in cell
intensities and rain rates, the slow/near stationary movement of
the surface boundary and persistent instability along it should
provide a focus for additional thunderstorm potential through the
overnight hours. Any re-intensification of convection along this
boundary is likely to result in 2+ inch/hr rain rates given the moisture/kinematic fields in place. FFG thresholds beneath the
cells are generally in the 2.5 inch/hr range, suggesting that
cells may need to reside over a location for greater than an hour
or produce rain over sensitive/low-lying areas for excessive
runoff and impacts. The overall flash flood threat is isolated
and perhaps a bit conditional, but should continue through the
early morning hours (1030Z/6:30a EDT).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8fjKNbMXZ43G9iG8qkPxp1HS6kHJNSmQIgmtsPq-IELF3f9QE76pc-KnX5cKvNoxW332= dZlF5TtTfYTOjEZAZuDtf4o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31998539 31718366 30948355 30308511 30958734=20
31828700=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041141
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-041700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0864
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 AM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama and
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041140Z - 041700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand into the
afternoon and train northward. Rain rates of 2-3"/hr are likely,
which through this training could produce 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this morning shows multiple
areas of rapidly cooling cloud tops centered along the Florida
Panhandle. These tops are associated with strengthening updrafts
leading to thunderstorms, which are clearly evident on the
regional radar mosaic. Rainfall rates estimated within the deeper
convection has been as high as 2.5"/hr from KTLH, and although the
highest rainfall rates have been offshore so far this morning,
convection has been expanding just inland over the past hour.

The environment across the region is extremely favorable for heavy
rainfall. A surface stationary front analyzed by WPC is serving as
a focus for low-level convergence to enhance ascent, with
additional lift occurring along a frictional axis near the
Gulf/land interface, and downstream of a weak shortwave
approaching the coast. This ascent is working into robust
thermodynamics to support the heavy rain rates, with PWs measured
via GPS as high as 2.3 inches, well above the 90th percentile and
approaching the daily records, with MUCAPE already above 1000
J/kg, although the most substantial instability is right along the
coast.

The sharp gradient of instability is limiting the inland extent of
heavy rainfall so far, but over the next few hours more widespread
convection should spread northward. This is due in part to
increasing southerly flow as the region remains pinched between a
ridge to east centered over the Atlantic Ocean, and a trough axis
positioned over Mississippi. The persistent southerly flow to draw
higher PW/CAPE northward will combine with daytime heating to
allow for more robust thermodynamics to expand across the area. As
this occurs, convection should rapidly spread across much of the
area while intensifying, which is supported by most available
CAMs, with 2-3"/hr rain rates likely as reflected by HREF
neighborhood probabilities and the 15-min HRRR rainfall
accumulation product. With nearly unidirectional 850-500mb flow
and 850mb winds exceeding the mean 0-6km wind, storms should
rapidly expand in the next few hours and train south to north,
leading to multiple rounds of convection which could produce 2-4"
of rain with locally higher amounts possible, especially from
Apalachicola through the Emerald Coast.

Additionally contributing to the increasing flash flood risk is
recent rainfall that has been 2-4" with locally as much as 6" the
past 48 hours according to MRMS. This has lowered 3-hr FFG,
especially across southern AL and southern GA, to 2-2.5". While
FFG remains high along the Florida Panhandle, any training of
these rain rates moving atop urban areas could additionally
quickly result in runoff and instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Kme83njg1G5WN-aUUJCsvFnDK548hDRNuXuip1YJsKw__zcouUIxB6Zn_hou16-GOhm= fKIT9D1WD1I-0n_viu8lnls$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33108546 32948460 32668412 31978387 30808387=20
30198412 29858443 29668490 29798550 30018573=20
30168663 30138702 30188746 30378760 30768706=20
31098605 31978586 32688574=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 041834
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0865
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Northeast FL...Eastern GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041833Z - 050030Z

SUMMARY...Very heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing
and expanding in coverage over the next few hours. High rainfall
rates and rather slow cell-motions will favor some potential for
at least isolated areas of flash flooding, including some urban
flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery
shows an increasingly expansive and agitated CU/TCU field across
northeast FL and into adjacent areas of eastern GA where solar
insolation has been rather strong over the least several hours.
This has led to MLCAPE values increasingly to 2000 to 3000 J/kg
which is also being aided by very high surface dew points running
generally in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

A quasi-stationary front draped west to east across the region is
favoring a corridor of stronger low-level convergence which
coupled with the strongly favorable thermodynamic environment is
expected to allow for locally very heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity to initiate and expand in coverage over the next few
hours.

The 12Z HREF guidance shows high probabilities (50 to 70 percent)
of seeing 2+ inch/hour rainfall rates with the convection this
afternoon across areas of northeast FL and into southeast GA.
These heavier rates will be near some highly urbanized areas
(including the Jacksonville metropolitan area), and this may
result in some urban flooding impacts.

Recent rainfall extending up into adjacent areas of eastern GA
have at least moistened the soil conditions a bit, and the
proximity of the front along with diurnally-enhanced instability
will favor a new threat of heavy rainfall extending north across
much of eastern GA going into the early evening hours.

The recent HRRR guidance and the 12Z HREF suite support some
rainfall totals by this evening of 2 to 4 inches, with a spotty
instance of 5 inches possible where some of these slower
cell-motions and potential for cell-mergers occur. A few isolated
areas of flash flooding will be possible given the setup and this
will include the aforementioned concerns for some urban flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6kEwdXGS-yQc4eRN3tyaMrV-zmU6EbHElodZUeizDreCd5MxWSKimmFlB5jmsNl-fKCl= E0X767pjqFPC6SxFs0VD7oc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...MLB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32448236 32208148 31808113 30598133 29148085=20
28778106 28968157 29828198 30728280 31268356=20
32198318=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041930
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0866
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041928Z - 050100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates will be expected through early this evening. A localized
threat of flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV suite shows an upper-level
trough and closed mid-level low center drifting slowly off to the
east into the Lower OH Valley. This energy is interacting with a
pool of moderate instability which is characterized by MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg, and the latest radar imagery shows
clusters of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms expanding in
coverage across especially portions of central and southern IL
along with southwest IN.

Multiple surface boundaries/troughs are in place as well which
coupled with at least modest DPVA associated with the upper-level
trough should favor some sustainable forcing. This coupled with
the instability should yield some additional expansion of showers
and thunderstorms over the next few hours.

The PWs are relatively high with values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches in
place, and with the available instability, some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour will be likely with the stronger storms that
evolve going through the early evening hours.

Slow cell-motions are in place given the overall steering flow,
with some of the convection already locally anchored near some of
these more subtle surface boundaries. These slow cell-motions and
fairly high rainfall rates may support some rainfall totals of 2
to 4+ inches through early this evening.

A localized threat of flash flooding will exist as a result, which
may include some isolated urban flooding impacts as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4AeSLUc27tirh21uxTRarf_UFZP2mdhpy_vFrAsWc3_a1WJHes0z6k3qnWIg2sj2UmTv= GCgW39JthFY4aQ-tVzHm5lo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39578757 39228650 38488555 37838574 37728658=20
37558764 37278855 37428948 38129004 38898991=20
39458904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050057
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-050455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0867
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
856 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050055Z - 050455Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving supercell thunderstorms this evening
may foster some additional isolated concerns for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W IR satellite imagery in conjunction with radar
shows a couple of supercell thunderstorm clusters over eastern CO
with rather slow and somewhat erratic cell-motions. The
environment is very unstable and highly sheared, with MLCAPE
values of 3000 to 4000+ J/kg and 50 to 60 kts of effective bulk
shear.

Rather moist low-level south-southeast flow into the central High
Plains this evening should continue to support the ongoing
convective clusters and there may be some additional expansion of
convection over the next few hours, before eventually sufficient
levels of boundary layer CIN take over to support a weakening of
the convection.

Aside from the severe weather hazards (most notably large hail)
with these supercells, the slow cell-motions will favor locally
heavy rainfall totals. Some rainfall rates of over 2 inches/hour
will be likely, with some additional storm totals of 3 to 4+
inches possible along the track of these supercells. Some isolated
areas of flash flooding will continue to be a threat at least for
the next few hours as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Xy5NaqHxZ1un_eNQPbYzVvzMJ9E3YyWcsFcyr0SBQI92a3pUJ1EMdsm3fbsS49nqKxO= zuJ85-Eny-2aZ8ljEVJGBeA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39710272 39500219 38650200 37120218 36980316=20
37470371 38610380 39440350=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050127
FFGMPD
MTZ000-050600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0868
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050124Z - 050600Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will tend to expand a bit more in coverage over the next few
hours. Some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows convective clusters
over areas of central and eastern MT tending to expand further in
coverage as divergent flow aloft downstream of a well-defined
shortwave trough/circulation over ID interacts with a moderately
unstable airmass over the northern High Plains.

MLCAPE values are as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg with effective bulk
shear of as much as 30 to 50 kts. This coupled with localized
influence from orographics has been yielding an uptick in
multicell and supercell thunderstorm activity over the last couple
of hours.

An additional increase in the coverage of convection is expected
over the next few hours, with the potential for a few cell-mergers
possibly leading to at least some small scale MCS activity.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some of the supercell thunderstorms have
been very slow-moving which coupled with the potential for
cell-mergers will support concerns for as much as 2 to 3+ inches
of rain. Aside from the well-defined severe weather concerns with
these supercells, there may be some isolated instances of flash
flooding that accompany them over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!79LmNOjqeTlcs0Tj9NXMEN8DFvdVjKN3z33b2Hms34CZs_II8LRMO_FmBtm9NCjUzOdy= _BDUaxInITpDJPpBSvi5FBU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49041014 49000779 48490589 47090471 45900471=20
45210568 45220696 46450807 46830905 46991063=20
47171198 47471276 48261306 48821183=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050143
FFGMPD
INZ000-050600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0869
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...Southern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050142Z - 050600Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates will continue to support concerns for additional flash
flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a rather compact cluster of heavy
showers and thunderstorms persisting over southern IN in
association with a closed mid-level low circulation and
deformation axis. The energy associated with this continues to
interact with a surface trough and an axis of modest instability
with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg.

The PWs are rather high with values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches in
place, and with the remaining instability, some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour will continue to be likely at least in the
short-term.

The latest hires guidance suggests at least a few more hours of
convection persisting over southern IN, with additional rainfall
amounts locally of 2 to 4 inches possible. These additional rains
may result in some additional areas of flash flooding before
conditions then gradually improve overnight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Hg4VI_51uldVKiwrRE0HA7L-SCFOttMucDf587HEggQuLDHfqwfiAge4nEU9XdmiT0u= L434nupAffs4t-kbRAp3RK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39638550 39018516 38518614 38448710 39128737=20
39528661=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050656
FFGMPD
MTZ000-051200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0870
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Montana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050655Z - 051200Z

Summary...Backbuilding convection will pose a threat of isolated
flash flooding across southeastern Montana and vicinity over the
next 3-5 hours (through 12Z/6a MDT).

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts a localized
axis of backbuilding convection mainly across rural areas of
southeastern Montana between Billings and Sheridan. The storms
backbuilding due to quick recharge of appreciable instability
aloft from very steep upstream mid-level lapse rates and
southwesterly flow aloft. Weak mid-level waves moving through
this flow were also providing a focus for ascent across the
region, leading to backbuilding and repeating convection. Areas
of 1 inch/hr rain rates were being estimated beneath the storms
per MRMS, which isn't surprising given 1-1.3 inch PW values=20
within a moist axis near the storms (just downstream of a surface trough/dryline). The current pattern suggests that a few hours of
heavy rainfall could result in spots of 3-4 inch rainfall totals
across the region through 12Z/6a MDT this morning.

CAMs suggest that eventually, upscale growth into a forward
propagating complex will limit the extent of repeating rainfall,
though this process may take a few hours to unfold. Furthermore,
local FFG (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) was already being exceeded in
spots and more areas could experience FFG exceedance given the
aforementioned mesoscale-to-synoptic pattern. Localized areas of
flash flooding are possible - especially from areas near I-90 in
southern Montana and eastward along/near US 212 across the
southeastern part of the state.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!762EaUzioaiNYFSgyhFHbT3HDm6rehidDaGlzYEcw2zPBBNAW8CXrS3ec43vn1zQ-soM= omnskIbTW3m5qUSsQJQuOao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46670491 46200416 45290404 45030484 45010719=20
45200802 45560803 46210768 46650666=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050741
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-051340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0871
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...eastern Georgia, western South Carolina,
southwestern North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050740Z - 051340Z

Summary...Scattered convection is drifting south to north across
portions of Georgia and upstate South Carolina. Spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates were estimated within the convection as well.=20
Repeated moderate to heavy rainfall should result in an increased
flash flood risk through the early morning hours (13Z/9a EDT).

Discussion...Earlier tonight, modest increase of southerly 850mb
flow atop a cool "wedge" front prompted scattered areas of
moderate to heavy rainfall across the discussion area. These
cells were likely driven by a combination of weak isentropic and
orographic ascent given abundantly moist (2 inch PW) but
marginally unstable airmass near the convection. Recent radar
mosaic imagery and objective analyses depict newer, developing
convective elements across central Georgia amid weak mid-level
waves embedded in southwesterly flow aloft. This newer
development suggests that light to moderate rain (with embedded
heavier convective elements) should persist for several hours -
perhaps extending past mid-morning across the discussion area.=20
Models (especially CAMs) are also supportive of this potential.

The developing scenario appears to support widespread 1-2 inch
rainfall amounts this morning, which should fall on already wet
soils from antecedent rainfall. Flash flood potential should
gradually increase, and may become more pronounced where heavier
embedded convective elements (with rain rates approaching 1
inch/hr) can materialize. The heavier rainfall may ultimately be
tied to the northwestward development of surface-based instability
toward early morning, with 850mb southerly surface flow of around
20 knots aiding in this destabilization. Flash flooding is
possible, and this risk may become more established with time as
we progress toward the early morning hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!97bkNmblh2lnyFgn2pEIhSU35UC-_Z-NdMsCqLKwML5fkXJTr5V_GBrHrBHmzm548I2d= Zn2aKLTdBgKlrNPZQlBWnv8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35698257 35658146 35008102 34038151 32978237=20
32748362 33338419 34388353=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051354
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-051827-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0872
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 AM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...Western South
Carolina...southwestern North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051353Z - 051827Z

Summary...Efficient convection containing 1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates
at times will maintain the threat of scattered flash flooding
through the morning and early afternoon.

Discussion...GOES IR imagery depicts an axis of gradually cooling
cloud tops associated with an area of enhanced showers and
thunderstorms on the cool side of a warm front slowly lifting
northward. Over the last several hours, a combination of repeating
1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates within this band led to rainfall amounts
of 2-4" across the highlighted area, which prompted several Flash
Flood Warnings.

As highlighted in MPD 871, this activity remains partially tied to
broad isentropic and orographic ascent amid 20 kts of SSW'ly 850
mb inflow. Over the last several hours, however, instability has
crept into the 500-1000 J/kg range (MUCAPE) with the advance of
the front, which overlaps with an area of strengthening right
entrance region ascent and 2-2.1" PWATs.

Accordingly, periods of 1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates should continue
for several more hours. Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest
the potential for an additional 2-3" through 18z in the
highlighted area. With 1 HR FFGs in the 1-2"/hr range (prior to
the overnight rainfall), this scenario could support additional
scattered flash flooding through the morning and early afternoon.=20

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-KPSfd9nD2DE2Rp8cjOQPPNPNEKxjpBCoV5jGBNzgA8b1_U6e5Gh3HUWddA7HkEYEqw6= dCXLaIQlJU-MhyyfNMgDjVM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35967996 35547959 34528033 33748094 33568151=20
33738217 34188234 34898198 35278148 35758084=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051734
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-052333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0873
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 PM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...Southwestern Georgia...Eastern South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051733Z - 052333Z

Summary...Periodic repeating of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates could drive
scattered flash flooding as thunderstorm coverage expands over the
next few hours.

Discussion...Radar across the Southeast highlights a general
uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity over the last hour
along a quasi-stationary front. Within this regime, two areas of
focus were over Southwest Georgia and the South Carolina
Lowcountry, where cell mergers resulted in hourly estimated
rainfall rates in the 2-3"/hr range.

Cell coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours as a
very moist (2-2.2" PWATS), unstable (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), and
uncapped airmass interacts with the front in the presence of
shortwave perturbations and persistent right entrance ascent.
Short term RAP forecasts suggest vertical shear profiles should
remain fairly weak (15-20 kts in the 0-6 km layer) to favor
loosely organized multicells which repeat over a similar area.
While this should limit overall individual cell longevity and
organization, the resultant cell mergers should favor periods of
2-3"/hr rainfall rates going forward this afternoon, as suggested
by the HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities.

The main limiting factor to the flash flooding threat this
afternoon are the high 1-3 hr FFGs in the 2.5-3"/hr range.
However, much of the 12z CAM suite highlights localized rainfall
amounts upwards of 3-6" through 0Z, which could drive additional
instances of scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-kb3il24QeaU9ocEL7K6BE3nw8EnomyMOqrVxHDh8P00BYaf5RgCkPqA6JesKAYBoPLN= TKU5kOIVSK2FfzEGMZPR374$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34217997 33957915 33217923 32308040 31218185=20
30938353 31108438 31658452 32368383 32848290=20
33568100=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052227
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060425-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0874
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
625 PM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southeast ND...Northeast
SD...West-Central MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052225Z - 060425Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will be organizing further and
expanding in coverage over the next few hours. Some scattered
areas of flash flooding will be likely by late evening from heavy
rainfall totals and locally sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suites shows a well-defined
upper-level trough and attendant frontal system ejecting east
across the northern Plains. Radar and satellite data both show
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms becoming a bit better
organized and focused across areas of central ND, with recent
convective expansion noted farther south into areas of
north-central SD.

Much of this convection is currently elevated in nature, but is
organizing in response to a strengthening southerly low-level jet
of 30 to 40+ kts along with arrival of stronger DPVA associated
with the aforementioned upper-level trough. MUCAPE values of 2000
to 3000 J/kg are pooled up across northern SD and southern ND in
close proximity to a west/east oriented warm front, with PWs
generally of 1.5 to 1.7 inches.

This thermodynamic environment will be conducive for additional
expansion of well-organized convection off to south and east over
the next several hours, and especially with a forecast increase in
shear profiles and forcing which will support mixed convective
modes inclusive of supercells.

The latest Max-of-Max tool of the 12Z/18Z HREF solutions and
multiple deterministic HRRR/RRFS runs strongly support rainfall
rates maximizing well into the 2 to 3 inch/hour range, with even
some spotty hourly totals higher than 3 inches with the stronger
supercell thunderstorms and cell-mergers that take place going
into the evening hours.

Upscale growth into a strong MCS is expected, and by late this
evening, some rainfall totals of 3 to 5+ inches are expected. This
coupled with locally moist antecedent conditions and elevated
streamflows will likely support scattered areas of flash flooding,
with the more urbanized areas at greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-8-XbCvrulKwvljPBY5Tg3_74whrF72ip1NNu-Hy0MqnlsHPIyMfem1krri0Zmec91PN= wpfPaMx7rlfnSxyOdkZl3LQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47699796 47519662 46919582 45969568 45099643=20
44719748 44629829 44789939 45339996 45749996=20
46599955 47199943 47559887=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060118
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0875
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 PM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AL...FL Panhandle...Southwest to
Northeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060117Z - 060715Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
with very heavy rainfall rates is expected going into the
overnight hours. Given the wet antecedent conditions and
additional rainfall, there will be a renewed threat for scattered
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E WV suite shows a fairly
well-defined shortwave impulse across eastern AL which is expected
to gradually lift off to the northeast across central to northeast
GA going through the overnight hours. This energy is expected to
interact with a quasi-stationary front draped across the western
FL Panhandle and adjacent areas of southern GA for a renewed axis
of at least some clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

An increase in warm air advection along with deeper layer ascent
from the shortwave dynamics, with favorable right-entrance region
upper-jet support, will be key in facilitating these areas of
convection over the next several hours. A gradual increase in
moisture and instability transport near and poleward of the front
will also favor very heavy rainfall rates. MLCAPE values along and
just south of the front are locally as high as 1500 to 2000 J/kg,
with PWs across the region as high as 2.0 to 2.25 inches.

This environment will support some 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates
with the more organized convective cells. Since the steering flow
overall is quite weak, the cell-motions are expected to be rather
slow which will be conducive for allowing for some of these cells
to attain sufficient levels of persistence/duration for
potentially enhanced rainfall totals.

The latest hires model guidance is rather inconsistent on the
placement and magnitude of where the heavier rainfall potential
will set up, but based on the latest radar and satellite trends,
areas of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle and southwest GA will be
most likely to see short-term impacts since this is where the
greater instability and forcing is situated. Radar imagery already
shows multiple slow-moving convective cells beginning to locally
produce heavy rainfall totals. However, by later this evening and
overnight as the shortwave energy lifts off to the northeast, the
threat of heavy rainfall may extend up across central to northeast
GA.

Additional rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 4+ inches will be
expected with some of these stronger convective cells that
materialize, and given the wet antecedent conditions, there will
be a renewed threat for scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7AdjvAl9z86e2Ez5ffEMq4fJlr66eWNvXNRDnOMQG36BKpPNfMEmJFCn3NwfsssLYlb7= 50XQYH-XSAsECY3mh3Fhyvk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34248257 33188200 32478217 31738252 31038310=20
30518399 30438505 30578592 30958643 31598628=20
33158500 34238371=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060424
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-061022-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0876
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1223 AM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota,
northwestern Iowa, northeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060422Z - 061022Z

Summary...A mature convective complex will continue to produce
heavy rainfall while migrating southward through the discussion
area over the next six hours. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...MRMS-estimated rain rates of 1-1.5 inches/hr continue
to be observed with a mature convective complex, which currently
extends from near Watertown, SD to just northeast of Pierre, SD.=20
The complex was propagating southward along an moist/unstable
axis, with 8C/km mid-level lapse rates and upper 60s F surface
dewpoints contributing to both 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW
values. The rightward movement relative to mean flow aloft has
enabled areas of localized training on the west side of the
complex, while isolated cells out ahead of the complex (along the
SD/MN border) have contributed to occasional cell mergers and
prolonging of heavy rainfall rates. The overall slow movement of
the complex has also enabled rain rates to remain relatively high
at times (above 1 inch/hr).

Convective trends are expected to continue with this complex over
at least the next 4-5 hours. The complex will continue to produce
spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates while migrating over areas of FFG
thresholds in the 1.5 inch/hr range, contributing to local
exceedance and occasional excessive runoff. Later tonight, models
suggest that the complex may begin to weaken as it makes steady
progress toward a stout mid/upper ridge centered over Nebraska.=20
General consensus (per 00Z HREF) is that the complex should
continue to provide a heavy rain/flash flood threat at least
through northwestern Iowa and the Sioux Falls area through 09Z/4am
CDT, which seems reasonable given observed convective trends.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8dWKUe0UL5c8k3HuSykIKW9-ZdwGu65SMHejtM_C5dJ2ZaU73iQNcOkJhxZxpmrKGjIB= F5Zpuh7uYiNOKa2Xszm4tnA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FGF...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45959769 45919594 43849417 41849441 41309658=20
42189880 44499977 45309974=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060425
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-061022-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0876
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 AM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota,
northwestern Iowa, northeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060422Z - 061022Z

Summary...A mature convective complex will continue to produce
heavy rainfall while migrating southward through the discussion
area over the next six hours. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...MRMS-estimated rain rates of 1-1.5 inches/hr continue
to be observed with a mature convective complex, which currently
extends from near Watertown, SD to just northeast of Pierre, SD.=20
The complex was propagating southward along an moist/unstable
axis, with 8C/km mid-level lapse rates and upper 60s F surface
dewpoints contributing to both 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW
values. The rightward movement relative to mean flow aloft has
enabled areas of localized training on the west side of the
complex, while isolated cells out ahead of the complex (along the
SD/MN border) have contributed to occasional cell mergers and
prolonging of heavy rainfall rates. The overall slow movement of
the complex has also enabled rain rates to remain relatively high
at times (above 1 inch/hr).

Convective trends are expected to continue with this complex over
at least the next 4-5 hours. The complex will continue to produce
spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates while migrating over areas of FFG
thresholds in the 1.5 inch/hr range, contributing to local
exceedance and occasional excessive runoff. Later tonight, models
suggest that the complex may begin to weaken as it makes steady
progress toward a stout mid/upper ridge centered over Nebraska.=20
General consensus (per 00Z HREF) is that the complex should
continue to provide a heavy rain/flash flood threat at least
through northwestern Iowa and the Sioux City area through 09Z/4am
CDT, which seems reasonable given observed convective trends.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_e12L8QFI3DN16ZUDJcPscFobIaJcZi_zbPOBSLWI8RYX32MNwbEeVCWL_rDyGXF1dJv= srFf8CdNqQYP9PPbb6V9ESU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FGF...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45959769 45919594 43849417 41849441 41309658=20
42189880 44499977 45309974=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060734
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-061132-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Areas affected...upstate South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and
western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060732Z - 061132Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will move slowly northeastward
across the discussion area over the next 4-5 hours or so. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...Shower/thunderstorm activity has been persistent
along an axis extending from near Athens to near Spartanburg this
morning. The convection has persisted in response to focused
ascent associated with an upstream mid-level wave entering western
Georgia. Just enough instability (i.e., 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE)
exists to support updrafts. However, the updrafts are also
embedded in a moist airmass characterized by 2 inch PW values that
supports efficient rainfall rates. Over the past hour or so,
areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates have been estimated per MRMS in
eastern GA/upstate SC - embedded within a broader axis of 0.5+
inch/hr rates in that same region. Furthermore, the area remains
wet from prior rainfall, with 2-5 inch rainfall totals over the
past 24 hours resulting in locally sensitive ground conditions
that can promote excessive runoff.

The main synoptic impetus for heavy rainfall (the upstream
mid-level wave) will only slowly cross the region from west to
east this morning, with continued, focused ascent resulting in
several areas of convection. Flash flooding is possible,
especially in sensitive/low-lying areas and near riverine areas
that are already experiencing ongoing flooding. This risk should
persist through at least 11Z/7a EDT across the Carolinas portion
of the discussion area and should slowly end from west to east
across Georgia.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4NI-z4Ivam7ruJvSVQ0mTNnRky8IF-VWoiUqkozMDYEXoRiyolRTIePa-mwJTz4KS7WB= IJgfVWPDfeps22oQAy0q6u8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36157948 35267933 34058090 32828332 33508400=20
34518351 35918096=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061804
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0878
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the SC Lowcountry...Central and
Eastern NC...Southeast VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061803Z - 070000Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and very efficient shower activity with high
rainfall rates will likely continue through the afternoon and
early evening hours from central NC through southeast VA. New
areas of heavier shower and thunderstorm activity will impact
eastern NC and the SC Lowcountry by later this afternoon.
Additional areas of flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a well-defined
shortwave trough lifting gradually northeastward up across the
southern Mid-Atlantic region which has been fostering broken
coverage of very efficient shower activity across large areas of
central to northeast NC and into southeast VA.

A combination of right-entrance region upper jet dynamics and
frontogenetical ascent along with a nose of modest elevated
instability is expected to continue to focus an axis of heavy
showers across central NC up into southeast VA through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Much of this activity is
focusing along and west of a strong inverted trough/coastal front
that has evolved well inland across eastern NC.

However, areas of eastern NC to the east of this surface boundary
along with areas farther south down into the SC Lowcountry where
there is an area of low pressure noted are expected to see an
uptick in surface-based instability over the next few hours from
stronger solar insolation. MLCAPE values have increased to as much
as 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and this coupled with some of the
aforementioned upper jet support and stronger low-level moisture
convergence should yield a more organized convective threat over
the next several hours with increasing coverage of heavy showers
and thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour are expected with the
additional areas of convection this afternoon and into the early
evening hours. A consensus of the 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance
suggests the potential for an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain
locally going through 00Z (8PM EDT) with the heaviest rains
generally across areas of eastern NC and to some extent into
northeast SC inland of the coast.

These additional rains are likely to promote additional areas of
flash flooding over the next several hours, and this will include
a threat for locally considerable urban flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!62u41CQncM9jMbIw51deCvJKNqZK6UuV7p2dlsy6uj5Ok4Gm4jAjwZ4we2SL6btFXS_t= FpWi8yIpBUSBreqsvkOU1uY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37257617 36777562 36047550 35257592 34277709=20
33577861 32837930 32707979 32918039 33748039=20
35207994 36517862 37217717=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070002
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-070500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0879
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Areas affected...Eastern and Southeast NC...Grand Strand of SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070000Z - 070500Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving shower and thunderstorm activity will likely
continue through the evening hours across portions of eastern and
southeast NC into the SC Grand Strand. This coupled with high
rainfall rates will maintain a concern for areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite along with radar data
shows a relatively compact vort center and associated mid-level
trough crossing the southern Mid-Atlantic region. This continues
to focus areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across southeast
NC and down into the SC Grand Strand. The more concentrated
activity over the last couple of hours has been focused from near
Kinston down to west of Wilmington, with additional focused
activity also now moving through the North Myrtle Beach vicinity.

A combination of shortwave dynamics and right-entrance region
upper jet dynamics with proximity of a surface low center near the
SC/NC border and an inverted trough extending north-northeast from
it has provided a persistent array of forcing over the last
several hours. This forcing coupled with the pooling of a
moderately unstable and very moist airmass along and just inland
of the Atlantic Coast has allowed convection to persist. This will
likely help maintain a semi-organized convective threat for at
least the balance of the evening for coastal areas and portions of
the interior.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg across far
southeast NC in close proximity to the low center, and this is
also where low-level moisture convergence is maximized with some
northward extent of this noted along the inverted trough axis over
eastern NC.

Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour will still be possible at
least in the near-term with the stronger areas of convection close
to the low center, and some of this activity will likely impact
the Brunswick to Wilmington, NC corridor within the next couple of
hours. The latest HRRR guidance suggests convection will weaken
later this evening as the overall instability foot print
diminishes, but the cell-motions of the current activity will
remain quite slow, and thus some additional rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches cannot be ruled out.

The additional rains will maintain a concern for flash flooding
which will include a threat for urban flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-lwbXbqeJix6lKu7EMf_m4EIhcEgQlOxZamUi96Obn0Smxrc8S8m0O8WLN1P6fZusp1L= HpYHW-9WOqriiYu2kYYF9TQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35737756 35647680 34947673 34327750 33857788=20
33707862 33067934 33367941 34117886 35217836=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071106
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-071530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0880
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
705 AM EDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Areas affected...Southwest/South-central
Iowa...North-central/Northeast Missouri...Far Western Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071105Z - 071530Z

SUMMARY...Warm advective training and upwind propagation may
support localized increased duration of 2"/hr rates. Spots of
3-4" are possible over the next few hours resulting in possible
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Hi-resolution CAM guidance is not
resolving/assimilating the strength of the early morning southwest
to northeast LLJ being about 10 knots too slow. So while there is
some sufficient capping remaining in the analysis fields
(espcially further east), the strength of isentropic ascent
orthogonal to the instability gradient has been strong enough to
break through the limited cap with elevated thunderstorm
development feeding on sufficient 1500-2000 J/kg (per modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates) of MUCAPE. CIRA LPW does show a bit
of drier air further west aloft, but surface moisture is more
limited through the Ozark Plateau, resulting in a narrower core of
moisture across eastern KS into southern IA with values of 1.5
increasing to about 1.75" pooling along the isentropic ascent
plane. This is increasing localized rain rates of 1.75-2"/hr.

Deep layer steering also quickly veers a bit more northwesterly,
resulting in west to east cell motions, yet eastern edge of deeper
layer moisture/instability and solid 500-1000 thickness ridging
support southward propagation. Combine that with stronger inflow
allowing for westward propagation, lowering of cloud bases nearing
the warm front across KS/west-central MO, this is some forward
slowing of cells into northern MO allowing for mergers to occur.
These mergers may allow for some short-term increase in
rates/totals (over 2-2.25"/hr) as noted in Annapose county over
the last hour or so. RADAR trend suggest, increased
convergence/mergers are possible north and west as cold pool may
be further steepening the isentropes further east, increasing the
upwind convergence in the nearer term. As such, spots of 3-4"
may start accumulating in the next few hours and with 3hr FFG in
the 2-3" range, localized flash flooding is considered possible.=20

Without support of CAMs, confidence is low in placement but more
on the timing of eventual weakening. Watching VWP observations in
the region will be key, but seems even a drop of 5-10kts in the
925-850mb layers will be very important toward this trend, though
there has be a slow erosion of usptream cu noted in SWIR over the
last few hours too.


Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6d9o0MetbPQWNT6_tQPsuzb2BXDk3CEoxpQpR4O5lQ3j4bQSEJZq5iGNYG7aeuxsmcQY= ajgPZPYOIoVwiErlx-Nu_18$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42099466 41749309 40639122 39629130 39489235=20
39909333 40729473 41199522 41709545 42019519=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080050
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-080645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0881
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Areas affected...Eastern MT...Western and Central ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080048Z - 080645Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms should
gradually grow upscale going through the evening hours. Locally
high rainfall rates with this convection will support at least an
isolated threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
an upper-level trough gradually impinging on the northern High
Plains, and this energy will be interacting with an increasingly
moist and unstable environment pooling near a frontal zone that
will be conducive for upscale growth of heavy showers and
thunderstorms over the next several hours.

Already there are a few well-organized clusters of convection
noted over areas of central to northeast MT and far northwest ND
as stronger forcing/DPVA begins to overspread the region ahead of
the upstream shortwave energy/height falls. However, there is a
well-organized pool of extreme instability and much stronger
low-level moisture transport/convergence noted farther east over
areas of western and especially central ND near this front.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 4000 to 5000 J/kg, and with a
strongly sheared environment characterized by 40 to 50+ kts of
effective bulk shear, the convective mode evolution going into the
evening hours will likely be dominated by supercells and bowing
line-segments. However, as the convection grows upscale and
gradually into a more organized MCS evolution later this evening,
there will likely be a number of cell-mergers and at least some
periodic cell-training concerns.

The environment is very moist across areas of western and central
ND near this front, with surface dew points locally in the lower
70s. This is supporting PWs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches in the
pre-convective environment which are a solid 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. A combination of this moist environment
along with a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the
aforementioned pool of instability should favor high rainfall
rates with the organizing convective clusters.

Earlier 12Z/18Z HREF guidance and the 12Z REFS suggested rainfall
rates with the stronger cells reaching well into the 2 to 3
inch/hour range. The enhanced low to mid-level shear profiles will
further aid these higher rates and especially within these
supercell mode thunderstorms.

Given the localized cell-merger and cell-training considerations,
some storm total rainfall amounts going through midnight may reach
as high 2 to 4 inches (spotty 5+ inch amounts possible). The 90th
percentile 6-hour QPF data from the 00Z WoFS (along with previous
runs) supports this over north-central ND in particular.
Therefore, with these totals and at least relatively moist
antecedent conditions, there will be concerns for at least
isolated areas of flash flooding over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_to1yPtjwTf_G0ikOcol7kU_eps8aJyOoMcezA0syRmUYnW5yNr2KKFCITIASE9apH3l= VA7mJCCh7_71oKXUApAgguQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...FGF...GGW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49170084 49059876 48559801 47629810 46679976=20
46020244 45720400 45430630 45650775 46510812=20
47240769 47940668 48540514 48940326=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080646
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0882
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Areas affected...North Dakota into far western Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080644Z - 081200Z

Summary...A strong MCS moving across North Dakota will continue to
race eastward through the morning. Despite the fast motion,
rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr may exhibit short-term training
to produce 2-3" of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
powerful MCS moving across central North Dakota. On the north side
of this linear MCS, a strong MCV has developed which is clearly
evident on radar. This MCS is being driven by a convectively
enhanced shortwave embedded within pinched flow downstream of a
pronounced trough diving across the Northern Rockies.

Downstream of this feature, the environment is extremely
supportive of strong convection with heavy rainfall. Recent GPS
measured PWs are as high as 1.4 inches in western MN, and analyzed
via the SPC RAP to be as high as 1.6 inches in eastern ND, which
are both above the 90th percentile for the date. Additionally,
MUCAPE immediately downstream of this MCS is as high as 4000 J/kg,
which when combined with the anomalous PWs will continue to
support the progression of this MCS and its radar-estimated rain
rates which are above 1.5"/hr according to KMBX.

850mb inflow within the LLJ has been measured recently via local
VWPs to be above 25 kts from the south, which is helping to
resupply the most favorable thermodynamics into this
pre-convective environment. Although this will gradually veer
during the next several hours, a brief period of backing and
acceleration immediately downstream of the MCS and its
accompanying MCV will help briefly intensify rain rates on the
leading edge of the system. Both HREF and REFS probabilities for
2"/hr rainfall rates peak at 15-20% in the next few hours,
although brief rain rates as suggested by recent HRRR and WoFS
runs could exceed 4"/hr.

While this system should remain generally progressive, as the LLJ
begins to veer in the next few hours, some short term training,
especially along the SW flank, could occur. Additionally, some
enhanced convergence behind the leading squall line could result
in secondary development of prolonged rainfall, although with
lesser intensity than previously. However, where any training can
occur, especially in the vicinity of the most intense rainfall
rates, the HREF indicates a 20-30% chance of at least 3" of rain
accumulation, such that any additional rainfall towards morning
behind the squall line could enhance the flash flood risk. The
general threat appears to primarily be isolated, but a few
locations across eastern ND have been quite wet recently, leading
to compromised FFG. So, if any of this training were to occur
across the more sensitive soils or urban areas, a few instances of
flash flooding could occur.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-chXPVmovtxX3yjfLRnxqsxEnOkYvxoM1dUHoCyMn4zqnO22WJAOgY9WtWF4E6QTD6kt= X1IveVVAC5AercdB1x-oaQ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49139689 48849551 48479492 48079483 47659506=20
47189551 46739617 46399719 46359735 46449834=20
46549930 46490021 46320103 46320166 46520214=20
47120190 47800116 48729966 49109799=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082224
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0883
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Areas affected...West-Central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082222Z - 090200Z

SUMMARY...Very heavy shower and thunderstorm activity moving into
the Tampa metropolitan area and adjacent suburbs will continue
through the mid-evening hours. Some urban flash flooding impacts
will be possible due to extremely high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows very heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity moving gradually westward across
west-central FL, with an emphasis on the broader Tampa
metropolitan area including the eastern suburbs.

Very moist and unstable air with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500
J/kg coupled with PWs of 2.2 to 2.4 inches is helping to drive
convection with rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ inches/hour. These
storms are expected to continue for at least a few more hours
going through the mid-evening time frame as low to mid-level
cyclonic flow/vort energy near the eastern Gulf Coast region in
association with a surface trough/weak front persists.

Given the high rainfall rates and relatively slow cell-motions,
some rainfall totals over the next few hours may reach 3 to 5+
inches. This will pose concerns for mainly urban flooding impacts
around the Tampa, FL vicinity and the adjacent suburbs where
already there has been locally a few inches of rainfall.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9UXYKuqy4Ady7FrH_flyV30gJZuFaGUuRUoq2SlnXNUF88Vhhwshaw8LeT9eXpSAWkTZ= j95UBvceqK6y9i2zZVCt_iw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28398165 28058146 27638184 27288209 27218256=20
27378285 27928294 28358234=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090852
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-091435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0884
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...northern IA into southeastern MN and western WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090851Z - 091435Z

SUMMARY...The threat for flash flooding is expected to increase
this morning from northern IA into southeastern MN and western WI.
Areas of training with rainfall rates in the 1-3 in/hr range are
expected with 2 to 4+ inch totals through 14Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 0830Z showed an expanding
cluster of thunderstorms just west of Minneapolis with outflow
oriented ENE to WSW moving into the downtown portion of the city.
This cluster has produced rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5 inches in
15-30 minutes from training over Wright County and a short term
flash flood threat appears likely into the Twin Cities over the
next hour or so.

Elsewhere across MN and IA, thunderstorm activity was fairly
limited in coverage but was beginning to trend upward ahead of a
large closed low over the Saskatchewan/U.S. border, steadily
advancing eastward with downstream ascent over the eastern Dakotas
into MN. At the surface, a slow moving (nearly stationary) front
was analyzed over west-central MN, from north to south, with a
secondary cold frontal surge with notable dewpoint falls to its
west across the Red River Valley. Ascent ahead of the large mid to
upper-level low, including upper level divergence and diffluence
tied to the right-entrance region of a 100 kt jet over ND, will
act to further increase thunderstorm coverage over the next 3-6
hours over the region.

As the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms to the west of MSP
continues to shift eastward into northwestern WI over the next
couple of hours, expansion of a second thunderstorm cluster is
expected from northwestern IA into southeastern MN ahead of the
cold front within a zone of low level moisture transport fed by
30-40 kt southerly 850 mb winds. This area of thunderstorms is
expected to follow the deeper layer mean flow toward the
northeast. As the secondary cold front reaches northwestern IA
near/just after 12Z, another round of thunderstorms is expected to
develop over northwestern IA with similar northeastward
advancement.

The pattern will favor repeating rounds of thunderstorms with
embedded periods of training which are likely to generate some
areas of flash flooding with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, perhaps
as high as 2-3 in/hr within the anomalously moist/unstable airmass.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6g9HpouFQjdOui-ds94a79wlXIembMAjSiYu1hcWO2YvhV7RdE11DohMr9C4_akR4YJo= oBn5VaZbPvyvcQBKjoEMdpQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...FSD...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46119202 45699032 44538980 43709015 42849193=20
42089495 42709620 43599584 45149406=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091431
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-091900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0885
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Northern Iowa, Southeastern Minnesota, and
Central Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091430Z - 091900Z

SUMMARY...Local rain rates to 2.5 inches per hour are occurring
within a very slow moving line of storms. Some of the hardest hit
areas could see 6" of rain over the next 4-6 hours. Flash flooding
likely.

DISCUSSION...A very slow moving front draped from central Iowa
into Wisconsin, with an attendant low along it, has become the
forcing for numerous showers and thunderstorms across a portion of
the upper Midwest this morning. The storms are very slow moving,
and while aligned along the front, the storms aren't really
training, but simply moving so slowly that they have time to drop
multiple inches of rain. The front has nearly stalled because the
upper level low and its cold front to the north have turned
northeastward, and thus are moving parallel to the front,
resulting in very little push for the front to continue eastward.
As is typical, PWATs with the convection have been increasing
according to SPC Mesoanalysis, with a stripe over 2 inches along
and immediately ahead of the front. While there remains some CIN
around, MUCAPE has been increasing, now over 2,500 J/kg. The
instability this afternoon should increase to over 4,000 J/kg
ahead of the front, supporting any storms easily maintaining the
capability of 2+ inch per hour rainfall rates.

Meanwhile, a weakening overnight LLJ is surging incredible amounts
of instability and moisture northward ahead of the fronts. The LLJ
is weakening due to typical daytime heating disrupting the
otherwise laminar southerly flow through convection. This
weakening of the inflow should allow convection to become more
isolated and gradually weaken into the afternoon, but this may
take a while. CAMS guidance has been poorly resolving the coverage
and intensity of thunderstorms thus far, but the HRRR has been
coming into line with subsequent resolving of the current
conditions. The HRRR suggests the storms very slowly move east
into the early afternoon, as the line weakens. The storm motion
should increase later this afternoon as the storms try to leave
the front and follow the increasing instability during peak
heating.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7itMHL4WR7SAQBC9_juyOgOPwvUvV91N4FQxaCix6E7cnrOEArMHifflf2QCcX-1ewd7= EnXZduXiC1MNoiAh0kndJR4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46118880 45708843 44918804 44588800 43788939=20
43169052 42339189 41649329 41799436 42449488=20
43079463 43659418 44379297 44479274 44579223=20
44989117 45349035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091941
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-100140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0886
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...SC Pee Dee/Lowcountry...Far Eastern
GA...Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091940Z - 100140Z

SUMMARY...Bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms should tend to
increase in coverage over the next few hours. Very heavy rainfall
rates will be likely, which will pose a threat for at least some
urban flash flooding/inundation concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
general expansion of cooling convective tops just offshore of the
Southeast coastline, with radar and surface data showing a general
westward advance of the shower and thunderstorm activity.

Very moist low-level cyclonic flow along the coast and extending
offshore in vicinity of a front should help maintain at least
disorganized convection over the next several hours which will
further be aided by the pooling of moderate instability. MLCAPE
values along the coast are near 1000 J/kg, and there is a fair
amount of frictional convergence noted along the coast which is
further supporting the potential for convective bands to at least
focus near and just inland of the SC/GA coastline. Areas of
northeast FL will tend to have a bit more of an inland diurnal heating/instability focused threat for slow-moving areas of
convection within the cyclonic low-level flow regime.

PWs of 2.2 to 2.4 inches are in place, and thus indicative of a
very tropical environment. This moisture along with the
instability should favor rainfall rates capable of reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour with these bands of convection, and some localized
cell-training concerns will be possible which could foster some
spotty totals of 3 to 5 inches by this evening. This is generally
supported by some of the recent HRRR guidance.

Given the rainfall potential, some urban flooding concerns will be
possible, and this threat may be locally exacerbated along the
immediate coast by the elevated tides associated with the
persistent onshore flow.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fMEkmp4jfVjtWkbspGz2PMvdCGl6_1Mkh1PiDHh0rOBITh2-fNcfRMRdZ5KJJsrCvei= EcFrd3GwXrnj0ZuSLhMbk6w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33917908 33447888 32258039 31228107 30388122=20
29228102 28968181 29578252 30388271 31308242=20
32538143 33218065 33757982=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092330
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-100525-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0887
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Much of Northern KS...Southern NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092327Z - 100525Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of supercell thunderstorms with
gradual consolidation into an MCS is generally expected this
evening. Locally high rainfall rates and cell-merger activity will
pose at least an isolated threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-W visible satellite imagery
along with radar shows multiple supercell thunderstorm clusters
organizing and generally expanding in coverage across portions of
eastern CO.

This activity will be gradually advancing off to the east this
evening into a strongly unstable airmass pooled along and north of
a stationary front, with MLCAPE values currently on the order of
2000 to 4000 J/kg. The environment is strongly sheared and
conducive for additional supercell thunderstorm development which
will gradually set the stage for cell-mergers and consolidation of
activity into a larger scale MCS later this evening. Additional
factors supporting convective expansion is arrival of stronger
upper-level jet support/forcing from the central Rockies out ahead
of a digging upper-level trough over the Intermountain West.

A gradual increase in a southerly low-level jet is also forecast
this evening across the central Plains which will further aid
ascent across the High Plains in close proximity to the
aforementioned frontal zone. In fact, the latest HRRR guidance
supports a 40+ kt low-level jet nosing up across northern KS by
late this evening and this will likely support a more organized
level of convection advancing east from eastern CO and into areas
of northern KS and southern NE, which may include downstream
development ahead of the eastern CO MCS evolution.

Rainfall rates with the stronger supercells and with any
cell-merger activity may reach 2 inches/hour, and the increase in
moisture transport later this evening will encourage these higher
rates.

Some localized storm total amounts going through midnight may
reach 3 to 4+ inches. The antecedent conditions for most of the
region is on the dry side, but the cell-merger activity and
resultant rainfall totals may foster some isolated flash flooding
concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6nAZzP8RQyE2TSvJixwe3jsJaDy_qDZyIA-f4vq5EdyRvFF57gTKgae_Pli53uy9J03i= o3hqrJvTg2b3OwZPU8bhLcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...
PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41419772 41299637 40429550 39209582 38749823=20
38469961 37980172 38120289 38740389 39960404=20
40690258 40970116 41199961=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100047
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-100645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0888
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 PM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern WI...Northern IL...Eastern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100045Z - 100645Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of very heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected by later this evening and going
into the overnight period. Slow-moving and locally
backbuilding/training convective cells are expected. This coupled
with high rainfall rates will promote areas of flash flooding,
some of which may be significant.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a well-defined
outflow boundary that is nearly stationary across portions of
northeast IA and across southern WI, with a rather significant
cold pool situated just to the north given the earlier convective
activity today.

A very moist and unstable airmass though has been pooling along
and just south of the boundary across eastern IA through northern
IL with MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500+ J/kg. PWs are generally on
the order of 1.8 to 2.0 inches and generally suggestive of a
tropical environment. The latest CIRA-ALPW data shows rather
concentrated levels of moisture in the 850/500 mb layer and this
further supports the overall high PW environment.

This extremely favorable thermodynamic environment coupled with a
gradual increase in a south to southwest low-level jet along the
outflow boundary should support an uptick in convective
development by later this evening. Increasing coverage of showers
and thunderstorms should be most notable over southern WI where
isentropic ascent/cold pool interaction will be stronger, but
there is a likelihood for convection to develop and focus
eventually back into areas of northwest IL and eastern IA where
the nose of the low-level jet will be a bit stronger and thus
indicative of stronger speed convergence.

The level of moisture and instability that is in place coupled
with an increase in moisture transport overnight near this outflow
boundary will support extremely high rainfall rate potential that
could easily reach 2 to 3 inches/hour. The environment will
gradually become conducive for some backbuilding convective cells
as the low-level jet strengthens, and thus concerns for
cell-training will exist in time.

Recent HRRR and WoFS solutions have been supporting as much as 3
to 6+ inches of rain at least locally, with the heaviest rainfall
likely being over parts of southern to southeastern WI. Given the
environmental setup, these rainfall totals certainly seem
plausible, and locations such as Madison and Milwaukee may be
impacted by these heavier totals. In time overnight, areas as far
west as Dubuque, IA may see a similar threat.

Given the high rainfall rate and storm total potential, areas of
flash flooding are likely tonight, and some of this flash flooding
may be notably significant. This will include a threat for strong
urban flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9x0FEnoA_6QZM949Wm4Gt2aeSVTKLbVjsdtM1Gbw9D4fr4lH68LS4UvkPV28mRSw-Ly2= kmxAVJAoDoXZc5zj1ZImeZc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43718920 43688789 43158714 42418740 41928839=20
41349106 41629218 42519239 43219127=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100144
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-100740-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0889
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
943 PM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Eastern GA...SC Lowcountry

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100140Z - 100740Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated bands of showers with high rainfall
rates will continue to be a threat going into the overnight hours
across coastal areas of eastern GA and SC. Additional urban
flooding impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
along with radar shows loosely focused bands of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity continuing to focus along and offshore of
the GA/SC coastline.

Very moist low-level cyclonic flow along the coast and extending
offshore in vicinity of a front will remain in place going into
the overnight hours, and this coupled with the persistent pooling
of moderate instability and stronger convergence near the coast
should help to facilitate additional bands of convection that will
generally advance west or northwest into the coast.

MLCAPE values along the coast are still generally near 1000 J/kg,
with a very moist/tropical environment characterized by PWs of
2.25 to 2.5 inches. This has been favoring very high rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour with some of the more recent activity
seen just southwest of Charleston.

Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches cannot be ruled out
overnight with these bands of additional convection and especially
given concerns for localized cell-training. This has generally
been consistent with recent output from the HRRR guidance.

The additional rains along with wet antecedent conditions will
promote a threat for additional flash flooding overnight.
Generally this threat will tend to be localized, with the more
urbanized locations at greatest risk including Charleston and
Savannah.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ShEmZAGhhooKBYAPpl1DzFOQntucjCoFiUZANbvfO1T8aywLR2xrska8DgO_2fYCzeL= ig0TxrCnazd4eABQw3O85_o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33737940 33277908 32378013 31658088 31138149=20
31598203 32428159 33218065 33697982=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100623
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-101100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0890
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...southeastern NE into IA, southwestern WI and
northwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100622Z - 101100Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely over the next few hours,
especially in southeastern NE, but eventually affecting portions
of IA into southwestern WI and northwestern IL. Hourly rainfall of
2 to 3+ in/hr on a localized basis can be expected along with
storm total rainfall of 3 to 6+ inches through 12Z.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 06Z showed a well-defined MCV over
southern NE, roughly 30 miles southeast of Hastings, tracking
toward the ENE. A damaging straight line wind event has been
occurring south of the NCV but warm advection to the north of a
long lived and sharply defined trough axis (located from
northeastern KS, across northern MO into western IL) was forming a
west-east axis of thunderstorms over southeastern NE. Overrunning
thunderstorms to the north of the surface trough (marked by a weak
temperature gradient) were oriented parallel to the track of the
MCV, setting up a favorable environment for training. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 05Z showed a region of 3000 to 3500+ J/kg
MLCAPE just ahead of the MCV over northeastern KS/southeastern NE
and eastward to the western IA/MO border.

Locally enhanced low level southerly flow just ahead of the MCV
will boost an already moderately strong 25-40 kt southwesterly 850
mb jet axis which was positioned from south-central KS into
southern IA and the WI/IL border. An expanding coverage of
thunderstorms, already blossoming from south-central IA into the
WI/IL border, should continue to evolve ahead of the advancing MCV
and broader overrunning southerly flow in place. Lift should be
aided by divergence within the right-entrance region of a
strengthening upper level jet (per RAP forecasts) from eastern SD
into MN. Given the forcing in place and high moisture (1.8 to 2.1
inch PWATs per SPC mesoanalysis), high rainfall rates are expected
within areas of training, easily capable of 1 to 2 inches in an
hour along with localized hourly totals of 2 to 3+ inches. While
there will be relative minimums of rainfall within the MPD threat
area, there is a broad threat with areas of flash flooding likely
embedded within, extending from southeastern NE into IA and the
WI/IL border.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85PWg1_MzokC-iM-OYt6zKd_TqVuBxT0yf7-iwblAyyxGHRpmLL_cFAg3Ahwm4hdmGcj= sjNMYATtEa0Kn1k82Z6VaYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...LOT...MKX...
OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43479076 43328954 42788927 41958956 41359035=20
40899245 40509436 40019614 39719768 40209823=20
40939786 41839645 42919319=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100701
FFGMPD
WIZ000-100945-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0891
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin, including Milwaukee metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100659Z - 100945Z

SUMMARY...An ongoing flash flood event over the city of Milwaukee
appears to be shifting to the north. However, areas of training
with locally high rainfall rates of at least 2-3 in/hr will
continue to impact portions of southeastern WI for another 1-2
hours with the threat beyond 09Z-10Z uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A focused heavy rainfall event has produced 7-9
inches of rain over the past 6 hours over the southwestern side of
Milwaukee (per area CWOP gauge reports) with areas of considerable
flash flooding. 20-25 kt of southwesterly flow at 850 mb has been
overrunning a nearly stationary outflow boundary located from Lake
County IL into south-central WI with Corfidi vectors suggestive of back-building and training.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 06Z indicated 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE
remained along the outflow boundary but the northward shift
appears to be related to the ongoing warm advection regime and
northward displacement of the elevated portion of the surface
outflow. This northward shift of the heaviest rainfall has been
accompanied by scattered thunderstorm development to the north and
west over portions of south-central WI. Expect areas of training
to continue over south-central to southeastern WI with localized
hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches along with continued areas of
flash flooding through at least 09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!60lEz1r__BMNFL2DCk-hoCZeEAstkiISJSh7CZZdD_0oY09HB5hkJlWUqOHEKqox-rCx= eTdpHCytBnUbMRO1nYPfWyc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43978812 43628722 42958700 42548745 42508828=20
42868907 43418981 43938940=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101040
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-101500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0892
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
639 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...IA into/across MS Valley and southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101039Z - 101500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of flash flooding will continue to be
likely from central IA, east-northeastward into southern WI and
far northern IL. Training of heavy rain will produce peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3 inches along with additional totals of 2 to 4+
inches through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...Radar and infrared satellite imagery showed an MCV
over west-central IA, just ahead of another area of cyclonic
rotation along the NE/IA border...with movement toward the ENE.
Out ahead of these features, radar imagery showed scattered
thunderstorms extending eastward from the MCV into eastern IA,
southern WI and northwestern IL, to the north of a remnant outflow boundary/trough axis that extended from southern IA into northern
IL. Areas of embedded training contained MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches but with localized hourly rainfall of 2 to
3+ inches over the past 1-3 hours. Low level flow of 25-40 kt was
overrunning the boundary along with ascent ahead of the upstream
vortex and given a similar orientation of low level winds to the
somewhat weaker deeper layer mean wind, Corfidi vectors were
oriented into the inflow layer supporting areas of training and
backbuilding.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 10Z showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg
was in place from central IA into southern WI, along with PWATs
near 2 inches. Aloft, IA was within a favorable region for ascent
within the right-entrance region of a 110 kt speed max aloft over
northern MN. This environment is expected to sustain for at least
another 2-4 hours which will continue areas of training downstream
of the MCV/vorticity max's track toward the ENE. While the
mesoscale pattern across the Upper Midwest is rather complex at
the moment, there are indications that low level winds will begin
to weaken at least somewhat with the diurnal cycle through 15Z,
but some low level enhancement ahead of the MCV should remain.
Areas of training are expected to maintain a likely flash flood
threat through 14Z/15Z across the Upper Midwest with potential for
an additional 2 to 4+ inches in a few locations, but some
potential weakening of rainfall intensities will be possible near
15Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!45upNSkFLCmx7YLR762l8qBIjUl1Gorhu4wKMpQZJa6H1Rm-uXMbobC97zOsQfl-S-cz= 9WJMlV3hwBw4Q1xP4BOZbHA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44648957 44288792 43398776 42698882 41209061=20
41159441 42339497 44029263=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101323
FFGMPD
WIZ000-101730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0893
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
923 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101321Z - 101730Z

SUMMARY...Additional heavy rain with peak hourly rainfall of 1 to
2 inches will worsen ongoing flooding conditions in the Milwaukee
metro rest of this morning.

DISCUSSION...The leading edge of a shortwave trough has seen an
increase in heavy rainfall coverage over southeast Wisconsin.
Ample moisture inflow continues with low level SWly flow around
25kt at 850mb which will reinforce 2" PW. SBCAPE of 1500 J/kg will
allow further development as this leading edge crosses the rest of
southeast Wisconsin and the Milwaukee metro. Recent rainfall
estimates from KMKX are up to 2"/hr. Given the multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall over and north of the Milwaukee metro since last
evening with 3-8" measured, this additional heavy rain will
further exacerbate ongoing flooding conditions including
considerable threats.

Additional upstream activity currently along the eastern IA border
will need to be monitored for further impacts over southeast
Wisconsin later this afternoon. Recent HRRR guidance has that
activity shifting in this afternoon, but not the RRFS. Both of
these models do not have this current activity, so there remains
uncertainty for this afternoon. This will continue to be monitored.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6HD6ktknlqv7GKdy6MQuwBnkL3ihU7pjip7oXAoHanaus31G7wKUn4fVA7yhULJKbsA3= CCcyfgCJc4CKHAXC61k0FjE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43398772 42818749 42498773 42628867 42928878=20
43318845=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101804
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-110003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0894
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...in and near portions of southeast AZ & NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101803Z - 110003Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to form as CIN
erodes across portions of southern AZ and southern NM. Hourly
rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible.

Discussion...GOES-18 and GOES-19 Veggie Band imagery along with
trends in SPC mesoanalyses indicate CIN erosion across the region,
with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing. The region is
diffluent aloft at the base of an upper level trough and not far
to the northeast of an MCV approaching the central Mexico/AZ
border. Precipitable water values of 0.5-1.2" lie across the
region. ML CAPE has built quite a bit across southern AZ, with a
few areas with 2000+ J/kg. ML CAPE has been starting to build as
of late across NM, but isn't especially high at the present time
with a couple pockets of 500-1000 J/kg. Flow at 850 and 700 hPa
is west to northwest at 10-20 kts.

The mesoscale guidance shows a broadening and intensifying of
convection as time marches on this afternoon. ML CAPE could
increase an additional 1000 J/kg or so in areas where convection
holds off on visiting. The low-level flow should pin convection
across southeast AZ, making it difficult for activity in the
mountains to march into lower elevations. However, the incoming
MCV could cause convection to break out in lower elevations close
to the AZ/Mexico border. Convection should show a tendancy to
move east to southeast today. Given the moisture and building
instability, hourly amounts to 2" with local amounts to 4" where
cells manage to train or merge are considered possible. This
rainfall would be most problematic in urban areas, dry
washes/arroyos, and areas with burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94KYcaNLnjjMZeQMQt0BVyGpfIlBVp6Lqy4mKIFxxazv_1BwhZJ4T4MNiV-G1iDXv7ei= AZFhsZw7PxJrz-fKNnJU7To$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34680667 34370564 32470519 31650610 31150884=20
31131104 31881210 33561077 33990946=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101853
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110051-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0895
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...in and near southern MO & southeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101851Z - 110051Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing across southeast MO
& northwest AR are expected to give way to new activity to the
west and northwest with time as CIN erodes and the low-level
inflow backs. Hourly amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
possible.

Discussion...The combination of a surface trough and outflow
boundary have generated new convection with heavy rain across
portions of southeast MO. Precipitable water values are 1.75-2"
per GPS data. An ML CAPE gradient exists across portions of
southwest MO and southern KS, with 3000-4000 J/kg existing in the
instability pool in northeast OK. An area of effective bulk shear
of 25-40 kts is approaching from the west. CIN is eroding from
east to west across the region.

As CIN erodes, the primary foci for new convection are expected to
be along or near the outflow boundary in southeast KS and
southwest MO, from east to west as the 850 hPa inflow backs, as
well as closer to the incoming front which is through the Kansas
City MO/KS metro area. Given the ingredients in place, hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. Most of the
region has received minimal rainfall over the past week, so widely
scattered impacts are expected primarily with urban areas and
sections of the Ozarks.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5H77Aq8zXpS8RmIiCDoopxKS8HuE6Av_pV5Rx5aVXm3tiRopfQ5ywJDPXDDiufxPNSd= AKNqX5R5iHaUtVofCMFBU14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38919038 37439093 35729329 36419536 36789617=20
37259680 37879624 38679446=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101925
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-110124-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0896
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101924Z - 110124Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms in the mountains of central CO
are about to emerge into the High Plains. Hourly amounts to 2.5"
with local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to
scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been forming within an
environment with parallel low-level cloud bands across the
mountains of central CO. The upper level pattern is diffluent
ahead of a shortwave seen on water vapor imagery near the UT/CO/WY
border junction. Several overshooting cloud tops have been seen
on recent satellite imagery as the storms push towards the High
Plains. Upslope flow is strongest across northeast CO behind a
fine line/leading edge of expanding cumuliform clouds seen in
satellite imagery. Precipitable water values in the High Plains
are 1"+. ML CAPE is 1000-2500 J/kg, and increasing, while CIN
erodes regionally. Effective bulk shear is 35-40 kts.

Guidance indicates that thunderstorms should increase in coverage, organization, and intensity over the next several hours. While
the mean 850-400 hPa flow favors east-northeast movement, ML CAPE
gradients in the region would favor a more east to east-southeast
movement, which is more reflective of what's advertised within
mesoscale guidance. The concern is that a combination of
mesocyclones and merging convective clusters over could lead to
hourly rains as high as 2.5" and local totals to 4" as
precipitable water values pass 1.25" locally, which is exceedingly
high for any time of the year for the High Plains of CO. Pockets
of eastern CO have seen much above average rainfall this past
week, making the region sensitive, in spots. Urban areas would
also see problems should the higher end rainfall intensities move
through them. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Roth=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ntetD5Chl_C1sDKfnUESsQYfAMfKpP2eBYC17BuaFdL6ApM2rySjVw-UvHOizqefSut= P9pT6nsPg-CTfjELeI9roDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41700553 41400346 40310142 37810172 36910265=20
36990529 37340612 38280630 39250565 40630600=20
41490619=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102051
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110159-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0897
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast IA & southwest WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102049Z - 110159Z

Summary...A small cluster of thunderstorms is trying to organize
as it moves east-northeast. Hourly amounts to 2" with local
totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A small convective cluster is trying to grow in
coverage and intensity as it moves east-northeast near a frontal
wave within a zone of 850 hPa wind confluence. Precipitable water
values are ~1.8". ML CAPE in its vicinity is 500-2000 J/kg and
CIN has been eroding from west-southwest to east-northeast.=20
Effective bulk shear of ~30 kts exists near this cluster.

The main concern would be that the cluster grows much further in
size and organization, as it is tracking into an area that
received 2-5" of rainfall during the past 24 hours. Hourly
rainfall up to 2" with local amounts to 4" appear possible, given
the ingredients available. Recent HRRR runs have had some concept
of future expectations in respect to locations impacted, and shows
the cluster evolving into a forward propagating line by 02z as
instability begins to decline, which would lessen the heavy rain
threat from that point forward.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!59h50jJXWLg2iJFB7iHh5I8n89EYm-_79GRtp7SnrANmpVk4KgYAoPk5ejN_vK2pY826= bmbLc_uRbD121QYUoWAU1Aw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43469082 43338986 42668996 42359046 42059228=20
42019248 42039296 42619254 43029200 43309145=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102329
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-110328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0898
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of the TX Big Bend, Southern NM, &
Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102328Z - 110328Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms continue to hold on across the
region, and should do so for another several hours as they sink
towards Mexico. Until they wane tonight, hourly amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" remain possible.

Discussion...Overshooting convective tops continue with the
convection across the TX Big Bend, southern NM, and southeast AZ.=20
The region is at the base of an upper level trough which is
providing difluence aloft. Precipitable water values are
0.9-1.3", fairly moist for sites with elevation. ML CAPE of
500-2000 J/kg remains across the region, and CIN is beginning to
return to the area.

The expectation is for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to
continue sagging south and eastward, either dissipating on their
way to the US/Mexico border across AZ and NM weakening while
entering northwest TX or the TX Panhandle over the next four
hours. Guidance insists that thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
will hold on the longest near the southeast AZ border with Mexico.
Until they fade or cross into Mexico, hourly rain amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" remain possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8thnvrDqD6DjnWZfoG4rYQ2wFQp3not2GtqVWxxqcwqvZLh3hf9iDN_y7OH-CRmD9mxJ= u7lg9PHZWgUz51x_UW9M9Ss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...LUB...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34630190 31970233 29390382 30510587 31200706=20
31070872 31101118 31531240 32281265 33651106=20
34111005 34230857 33050638 32810420 34380358=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110014
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110412-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0899
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
813 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110012Z - 110412Z

Summary...A convective cluster is moving briskly into southwest
WI, and along with additional thunderstorms forming in its
neighborhood, is threatening saturated areas of southeast WI.=20
Hourly rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" remain possible.

Discussion...A small thunderstorm cluster continues moving
east-northeast at 30 kts into southwest WI. Overshooting cloud
tops continue to be noted prior to sunset on Veggie Band imagery.=20 Precipitable water values are 1.75-2". An instability gradient
exists across southern WI which continues to edge northward to
sustain this cluster, with maximum values of 2000-2500 J/kg.=20
Effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts exists in the area.

As new cells are forming at its leading edge and to its east
closer to Chicago, there is little sign of the cluster trying to
arc out into a convective line yet. As soils were significantly
saturated across southeast WI with 5-14" of rain last night, they
would be sensitive to hourly amounts to 2" or local totals to 4"
wherever cells merge, train, or a mesocyclone manages to form and
track. The mesoscale guidance as a whole has been struggling
here, so left the category as Possible, but wherever the cluster
moves over saturated soils or urban areas, flash flooding would be
possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_mAknFSP-2poDSznjFXOEwP5IXOD6S7vqEEu-HVJg-wlsfsplz0g4eoeqRo3zefBiWSS= zC7lOa-ft_DYMDi01rtYSF8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43758869 43538789 42538759 42278781 41989025=20
42019156 42629138 43349035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110054
FFGMPD
MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-110653-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0900
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...eastern CO, western KS, near the KS/OK border, &
southwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110053Z - 110653Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to bridge across from CO near
the KS/OK border over the next six hours. Hourly rain amounts to
3" with local totals to 5" over an increasingly broad scale should
allow for scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding
through 07z.

Discussion...Over the past 2-3 hours, thunderstorms have been
developing and congealing across portions of southwest MO and near
the eastern KS/OK border within and in the gradient north of an ML
CAPE pool of 3500 J/kg. CIN continues to erode here. A front
bisects the OK/KS border from east-northeast to west-southwest.=20
To the west, elevated thunderstorms continue their march across
eastern CO and far northeast NM. Precipitable water values of
1.25" in the High Plains to 2" farther east are seen near the
boundary. Effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts exist across the area.

As the low-level jet continues backing/edging to the west along
the OK/KS border, there should be a tendency for convection to
reform farther west from southwest MO and southeast KS. At the
same time, convection from CO is expected to move across western
KS. By 06z, either a merger of the two convective areas or
outflow from the activity currently across CO should lead to a
significant enhancement of heavy rainfall in or near southwest KS.
The 18z HREF advertises a nearly 20% chance of 5" through 06z,
and has similar odds of 8" in the 00z-12z time frame in far
southern KS. Meanwhile, the WoFS maximum is mostly south of the
eastern two-thirds of the OK/KS border, possibly due to ongoing
convection eroding the northern portion of the instability pool in
that area. Cell training, possible random mesocyclones, and cell
mergers are expected to lead to locally higher rain totals. With
a broadening scale of hourly rain amounts to 3" and local totals
to 5", and despite dryness over much of these region during the
past week, scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are
expected overnight, which is expected to be underway before 07z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!47i8czHkhAkAkTnNQFH3PKpQcV5Eqb9_Wj957hAp3ylTFyR884A4903Tssi3CKigeuv1= sy9FqW_kYowunYcsH1wepIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...EAX...GLD...ICT...LSX... OUN...PUB...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40240316 39830139 38519954 38209793 38559547=20
38969282 37259262 36369516 35819960 35760028=20
35890207 36460351 38000446=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110424
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0901
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1223 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...northern Illinois through central Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110423Z - 110900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms expanding ahead of a shortwave
will likely train across parts of Wisconsin tonight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr at times will produce 1-3" of rainfall, and may
result in renewed flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery tonight shows expanding
convection evident via cooling cloud tops across parts of northern
Illinois and southern Wisconsin. These thunderstorms are generally
developing in response to the overlap of a shortwave analyzed by
the RAP and noted in the satellite imagery lifting across eastern
IA, with the slow veer of an 850mb LLJ analyzed by regional VWPs
to be 20-30 kts from the S/SW. This LLJ is drawing elevated PWs
northward, which were measured via the 00Z U/A soundings at DVN
and ILX to be above 1.9 inches, or well above the 90th percentile
for the date. These PWs are aligned with a ribbon of high MUCAPE
above 2000 J/kg, and as the LLJ continues around 30 kts the next
several hours, these robust thermodynamics will resupply an
environment favorable for heavy-rain producing convection.

Recent radar-estimated rainfall rates from KMKX have been as high
a 1.5"/hr, and the HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr
remain as high as 40% through around 09Z, while the HRRR
indicates an isolated potential for brief 3"/hr rain rates
(0.75"/15min). The strongest convection is likely during the next
few hours, primarily across southern WI, before the LLJ begins to
veer. This is also when the greatest height falls/PVA will occur
downstream of the shortwave as it lifts northeast, providing
enhanced ascent into the favorable thermodynamics.

There may be two areas of focused heavier rainfall, one across
central WI and a secondary maximum in southeast WI. Across central
WI, the LLJ nose will develop leading to enhanced convergence
before it begins to veer after 07Z. This suggests regenerating
cells in this region with enough support from thermodynamic
advection to produce repeating 1"/hr rain rates. With cells likely strengthening right along this convergent axis, rainfall could
reach 1-3" leading to isolated instances of flash flooding within
a narrow corridor.

Farther south in WI and into far northern IL, the greatest
isentropic ascent is likely, which will act into a plume of the
most intense MUCAPE. Here, propagation vectors collapse to around
5 kts and become aligned obliquely right of the mean wind
suggesting backbuilding cells and a higher training threat. Rain
rate probabilities also peak in this vicinity, and the HREF 6-hr
rainfall probabilities for 3" rise above 15%. Southern WI has also
experienced tremendous rain the past 24-hrs of 2-5", and in some
areas more than 9" of rain, leading to extremely vulnerable soils
such that any heavy rain could quickly lead to runoff and
instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3v1zRJNRvp-j3FKUYPjRVhvGbxMCsh4UlA9MC-EWaAO33e92oTzGb6w6MjJBQ3xGOED= QYViyd1hxpt_9-5SRx_1Czs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45258843 45058781 44668756 44198757 43318773=20
42818781 42348803 41878897 41819016 42209087=20
42559100 43419084 44409024 45008936=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110517
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-111115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0902
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
116 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Coastal Georgia through Coastal Southeast North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110515Z - 111115Z

Summary...Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms pivoting
onshore will continue overnight. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are
likely, which through training could produce 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows
expanding convection lurking just offshore to the east of the SC
and GA coasts. This convection is expanding in response to ascent
driven via strung-out vorticity aligned along the coasts combined
with increasing thickness diffluence noted in the mid-level
thickness fields. At the same time, 850-500mb winds are generally
from the E/SE around a mid-level trough axis, with recent 850mb
winds measured at KJAX and KCLX VWPS of 20-30 kts, more than twice
the mean wind, supporting additional ascent. This lift is
occurring into impressive thermodynamics characterized by PWs
measured by GPS of 2.3 to 2.4 inches, nearly the daily record for
the region, overlapping MUCAPE of 1000-3000 J/kg as analzyed by
the SPC RAP. Together, this is resulting in an expansion of heavy
rainfall with embedded thunderstorms, with impressive reflectivity
above 40dBZ identified near shore via the regional radar mosaic,
but also additionally farther offshore utilizing the satellite
GREMLIN product, with sufficient GLM lightning density to support
its output.

As onshore flow persists and forcing remains, convection should
expand and intensify through the night. As is typical with
nocturnal flare ups like as expected, the heaviest rainfall should
be confined to offshore and the immediate coast due to a rapid
dropoff in instability inland. The simulated reflectivity and
rainfall footprint from the available CAMs supports this
conceptual model, but with 850mb winds continuing to exceed the
mean wind, some inland push of heavier rainfall is possible.
However, the most intense rain rates, which have a 15-25% chance
of exceeding 2"/hr from the HREF, and may locally exceed 3"/hr at
times (15-min HRRR rainfall of 0.75") should remain along the
immediate coast. Despite storm motions of 10-15kts to the NW,
Corfidi vectors collapsed to 5 kts or less and aligned against the
mean wind indicate backbuilding and repeating cells will rotate
onshore to enhance the duration of rainfall. Where this occurs,
total rainfall through morning will likely reach 2-3". with local
amounts as much as 5" possible.

3-hr FFG from the Georgia coast northeast into the Grand Strand is
generally 2-3"/3hrs, although is locally compromised to as low as
1.5"/3hrs due to 24-hr MRMS measured rainfall of 3-5". While the
flash flood risk appears generally isolated, should any of these
training bands occur atop these more vulnerable soils, or into any
more urbanized areas, flash flooding would become more likely
overnight.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7BGhqHsZ-MdeMYOjwksyB6wdTCG6tK8QRWAaO1NuzEL4UrP7pKXRdmJBBUplSxbdGUq6= ab1_mirvjP-0jKM5Wxfv-Z0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34347830 34227783 33877777 33527829 33177880=20
32887920 32188020 30948101 30848140 30988167=20
31328190 31658176 31968150 32188132 32488103=20
32868069 33318020 33877959 34207906=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110646
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-111200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0903
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Southern Kansas and far Northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110644Z - 111200Z

Summary...An MCS moving across southern Kansas will interact with
an outflow boundary/stationary front to enhance convection through
early morning. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are expected, which
through training could produce 3-4" of rain with locally more than
6" possible. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows
expanding thunderstorms with heavy rainfall stretching across much
of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma. Within this
convection, dual MCVs are noted moving eastward, with a potent MCS
associated with the leading MCV pushing into central KS. This MCS
will continue to track eastward through the morning, interacting
with downstream convection, and leaving a residual outflow
boundary, to persist and intensify rainfall.

Thunderstorm activity is being driven by an impressive overlap of
synoptic and mesoscale ascent. A large-scale mid-level trough axis
is advecting eastward from the High Plains to produce broad height
falls, while an upper jet streak intensifies downstream to place
favorable RRQ diffluence atop the Central Plains. This deep layer
ascent is being enhanced by a strengthening southerly 850mb LLJ
measured via VWPs at KICT/KVNX to be 30-35 kts. This LLJ has
exhibited rapid strengthening and broadening the past few hours,
which is helping to intensify the thermodynamic environment by
drawing PWs of 1.8-2.0 inches and MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg northward to
support ongoing convection. Additionally, this LLJ is
isentropically ascending the hybrid outflow boundary/stationary
front analyzed by WPC to provide enhanced mesoscale lift.

While the CAMs are struggling to resolve the exact evolution of
the current radar, the recent HRRR and ARW have at least a better
handle on the positioning/timing of the features leading to
increased confidence in their output the next several hours. These
suggest that the LLJ will remain primarily from the south
overnight, with some local acceleration possible immediately
downstream of the MCV. As this occurs during the MCS translation
to the east, it will result in persistent and slow moving
thunderstorms downstream (Corfidi vectors collapsed to just around
5 kts) until the MCS sweeps through by morning. Additional
convective development is likely along other outflow boundaries as
well, further lengthening the duration of rainfall in some areas.
With thermodynamics supporting rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr (30-40%
chance of 3"/1hr from the WoFS, and HRRR 15-min rainfall as much
as 1"), rapid runoff is likely even despite 0-10cm soil moisture
from NASA SPoRT that is below the 20th percentile.

Most concerning, however, is the threat for training or slowing of
these intense rain rates. The HREF PMM and WoFS 90th percentile
rainfall by 12Z are quite well aligned with a maxima across
Kingman, Barber, and Harper counties, KS. Here, both these systems
predict as much as 6-7 inches of rainfall, with a broad swath of
2-5" (10-30% chance from the HREF) surrounding it and stretching
as far east as the KS/MO border. This indicates that flash
flooding is likely in many areas overnight, with an isolated
significant impact possible if these higher amounts occur over a
more vulnerable location.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_MmBJ-WCVuHop1IQ1whv3QTsPnmIqSts1uQ-MlIhGX88CgWhjhHzTEJH9OYuhoWTd7pS= Emu8Bqy3BEYE1pq4BZKOh5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38759928 38669773 38549705 38339627 38089551=20
37779511 37419496 36919484 36559505 36059620=20
36169750 36389914 36440071 36530111 36850170=20
37400139 38060091 38550011=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111203
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-111600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0904
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111201Z - 111600Z

Summary...Development ahead of an MCS allows a flash flood risk to
persist this morning over southeast Kansas into western Missouri.

Discussion...The MCS that crossed southern Kansas overnight has
seen renewed growth over southeast KS with a left book end vortex
turning into an MCV near Emporia. Currently activity that
developed near Chanute is now having the MCS cross which raises a
localized flash flood concern. An axis of high moisture with some
instability extending east into Missouri poses a possible flash
flood risk rest of this morning as the MCS progresses east.

SWly 850mb flow of 25-30kt is forecast by the RAP to persist ahead
of the MCS into western MO through 14Z. This will maintain PW
around 2". MUCAPE is a bit lacking ahead of the MCS generally
between 500-1000 J/kg, but given recent upward trends, there may
be sufficient instability to allow further growth. Furthermore,
areas ahead of the MCS along the KS/MO line have lowered FFG of
1.5/hr given heavy rain yesterday. Flash flooding is considered
possible over the rest of southeastern KS south of the KC metro
into western MO and this activity will continue to be monitored.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_j3YL7eprleIk666mpilVuZdyd0pqGJZ8v8FHZo0u1spix3hbDb1FPkO78QUsOga6I3y= sEpZEzw5x0PgwdKZa0p-VLM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38869359 38179304 37429311 37069422 36949496=20
37089599 37949590 38459614 38809523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111239
FFGMPD
SCZ000-111600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0905
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Greater Charleston SC Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111237Z - 111600Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms with hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches should continue to lift up the SC coast this morning. At
the current pace, the heavy rates would impact Charleston near
morning high tide which would enhance localized flooding.

Discussion...A band of heavy thunderstorms is currently pushing
inland and up the coast between Hilton Head Island and Charleston.
This is being fed by 25kt Sly flow with PW still around 2.25" with
a high instability gradient with 3000 J/kg just offshore per the
RAP. Max hourly rainfall is estimated from KCLX in Charleston
County south of the Charleston metro.

As onshore flow persists this activity should persist along and
just inland from the coast with a northward trend. This would
place torrential rain over the Charleston metro near the 10a high
tide which would enhanced the localized flooding risk.
Furthermore, the 1hr FFG is generally around 2.5", so localized
flash flooding is possible over the areas impacted by this heavy
band. As of now the offshore component of the activity is somewhat
disorganized and the cloud tops have recently begun a warming
trend. However, given the high instability, redevelopment is
possible which makes for a possible flash flood risk rest of the
morning around the greater Charleston metro.



Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-KPobCGAsTzzbsZSJNwkPUZdJJifdA_l6VqbIt_Yp9tP31h81BG8dwk-VHIkWxqpye0W= IAbEwaeyDDAXc9KB5vNXivg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33338015 33027946 32607964 32478033 32798053=20
32988056=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111434
FFGMPD
FLZ000-111930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0906
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111432Z - 111930Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to push west from
Apalachee Bay rest of this morning. Extreme rainfall rates of 3"+
per hour should continue with this activity. Flash flooding is
considered possible through the early afternoon in this rather
flash flood resistant area.

Discussion...A trough extends up through Apalachee Bay with
rotation apparent in regional radar. Scattered thunderstorms with
torrential rain rates are focused west of this trough along the
western Apalachee Bay shoreline. Westward expansion and shifting
of this complex is expected to continue as directed by an upper
ridge extending from the Atlantic along the FL/GA border. Extreme
moisture is present along this trough axis with recent RAPs
estimating 2.5" PW. High instability is also present with SBCAPE
up to 3000 J/kg estimated by the RAP in Apalachee Bay with a tight
gradient to 1500 J/kg near the Apalachicola National Forest SW of
Tallahassee.

Continued rainfall rates of 2-3"+/hr should be expected with
potential for localized 5"+ in three hours. Given 3hr FFG around
4", the flash flood threat would be for repeating activity which
is not currently developed and recent HRRRs do not depict much
additional development through early afternoon. However, renewed
development certainly could occur given the high instability
upstream over the Bay and peak diurnal heating. This area west of
the FL Big Bend is rather flash flood resistant, but rainfall
exceeding 4" through midday would cause at least localized
flooding issues. Flash flooding is considered possible at this
time.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6CGFOW9-0_-_CLE7SbAp2XL46xR5B2AYx3xgrqwlRLUJZo_M7vTtzwxewz_eguWWm7lm= U_pHUghRRE5QzpTpagfb4v8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30398483 30138428 30008414 29748430 29568470=20
29508501 29648544 30158588 30378546=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111624
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-112215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111622Z - 112215Z

Summary...Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
developing along an axis from the South Carolina Coast to the
North Carolina Blue Ridge rest of this afternoon. Rainfall of
2"/hr is likely to continue and expand in coverage with localized
totals exceeding 4" possible rest of this afternoon. Localized
flash flooding can be expected.

Discussion...Broad scale southerly flow is present over the
Southeast with a trough along the Carolina Coast. A somewhat
focused corridor of activity has developed from the SC coast north
of Charleston inland to the NC Blue Ridge which is ahead of a
mid-level vort lobe drifting north over southern SC per recent RAP
runs. Heavy thunderstorms moved through Charleston late morning
with continued development lifting along the coast. A new cluster
of thunderstorms have developed in the past hour over interior
northern SC and heavy showers continue from this morning from
around Charlotte west through the southern NC Blue Ridge (with
further growth possible through the diurnal max). Robust,
tropically sourced moisture is present over this corridor with
2.3" PW along the coast and 2" butting up against the Blue Ridge
which is around 2 sigma above normal across the region. SBCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg along this corridor is allowing this development
and warm rain processes are maximizing rates with with recent
hourly rainfall of 1.5-2" in the heaviest activity.

Recent HRRR runs are a little subdued compared to reality, but
generally focus afternoon development along this corridor. Flash
flood guidance is 1.5-2"/hr in the Piedmont/foothills and
generally 2.5"/hr in the Coastal Plains. The combination of
extreme moisture and sufficient instability should allow for
localized extreme rainfall rates of up to 3"/hr which would cause
localized flash flooding rest of the afternoon.

Given the broad scale of the elevated moisture across the
Southeast, further consideration will be given to other areas
outside this corridor (which is purposefully just north of
vulnerable Columbia based on trends), but for now this appears to
be the most likely area for flash flood concern this afternoon.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77LrHy1BKj_4tDjjzsU5WhBxJE4Ckbp5p4kZZxM9J6FPdb3bTyIOg5lbRxyhTcjy5DZU= QMAAciAty_IQwNIQGgOoLvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36148091 35548025 34977938 34157846 33837816=20
33377879 32557976 33398034 34238083 34838193=20
35248224 35698214 36108153=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111827
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-112330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0908
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Northeast North Carolina through Hampton Roads

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111825Z - 112330Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue developing and
drifting north from northeast North Carolina through Hampton Roads
this afternoon. Localized rainfall of 2.5"/hr is likely to
continue with possible totals of 4" possible. Localized flash
flooding can be expected to 23Z.

Discussion...Southerly flow over eastern NC is pushing 2" PW up
over Hampton Roads. Scattered thunderstorms have developed over
northeast NC with newer activity in southern sections of Virginia
Beach. Sufficient instability is present with SBCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg with a decreasing gradient north of Hampton Roads and warm
rain processes are maximizing rates with with recent hourly
rainfall of 2.5" in the heaviest activity.

Recent HRRR runs are decent in coverage, but somewhat light on
intensity and depict a bit of a northward drift in activity over
southeast VA rest of the afternoon. Flash flood guidance is
higher, generally 2.5"/hr, but lower as typical for the Hampton
Roads metro around 1.5"/hr. The combination of high moisture and
sufficient instability should allow for localized rainfall rates
of up to 3"/hr which would cause localized flash flooding rest of
the afternoon, especially in urban areas.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!84iEyxG36aIxsn_UaI8WR-zFv1D7DKjdtU4DWRFyckzMD1qb9skYB65hWAW1HNEXfdDN= -GIoES9MMpQwsa6LcprM4fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37217644 37007597 36567569 36077553 35727554=20
35537676 36417780 36877783 37137736=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111904
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-112333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0909
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111903Z - 112333Z

Summary...Pulse convection with heavy rain is moving towards a
more hydrologically sensitive area over the next few hours.=20
Hourly amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible, which
could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Thunderstorms across NC are moving inland near and
ahead of a surface trough/convergence zone. Despite its forward
progression, hourly amounts to 3" -- if not higher -- have been
seen with this activity per WSR-88D radar estimates. While
activity is generally moving northward, some cells are showing
more chaotic motion, leading to occasional mergers which is aiding precipitation efficiency. Precipitable water values are 2-2.25"
per GPS data. ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg exists in the region.=20
Effective bulk shear is shy of 25 kts, leading to its pulse
character.

Of concern is a swath of the Piedmont which has received 300-600%
of their average weekly rainfall from Asheville northeast through
Durham to just across the VA border. This wet week should have
made the soils more sensitive, and shows up as a lower area of
flash flood guidance values. Isolated to widely scattered flash
flood concerns should be mostly within this wet area of the
Piedmont or in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-VKPMZClq23jekxG9GBgFYK-HQXrIez8PzfDMiyvSQE9EIEPI12bJdMFzIG0ZhJOno55= xsocLobH1wAdb1EB4XJMsnw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37167743 36617798 36107755 35667712 35567698=20
35017741 34627867 35417994 36268095 36918014=20
37107883=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111947
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120146-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0910
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...circa northeast NM & the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111946Z - 120146Z

Summary...Cumuli are showing growth near the NM/CO border and
across portions of the TX Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms
which evolve from them have the potential for hourly rain amounts
to 2" with local totals to 4".

Discussion...Cumuli are getting feisty near the NM/CO border in
area terrain not far to the east of an upper level low dropping
into northwest NM, with some signal of cumulus growth also
apparent in the northwest TX Panhandle where a surface convergence
zone/weak baroclinic trough was noted in 19z surface observations.
Precipitable water values of 0.5-1.5" lie across the region. An
ML CAPE gradient is noted near the convergence zone on SPC
mesoanalyses, with 500-2000 J/kg values in its vicinity.=20
Effective bulk shear of 20-30 kts exists at the moment. CIN is
reducing across the region.

While there's some disparity amongst the mesoscale guidance, the
most coherent signal shows that convection near the CO/NM border
forms and drops southeast to south-southeast, roughly in line with
the ML CAPE gradient and 850-400 hPa mean wind but somewhat into
the instability field. Some of the activity that forms across
portions of northern and central NM then turns east along the trough/instability gradient into the TX Panhandle while growing in
scale as the low-level inflow from the Gulf begins to increase and
moisture import increases further. Given the available
parameters, hourly rain to 2" with local totals to 4" are
possible. The region has been dry over the past week, so any
flash flood issues are most likely to be isolated to widely
scattered and near area burn scars, dry washes/arroyos, or across
urban areas within this region.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6MVkTYOPbBiYoy0dlZKlJ0tTeBEDfkLTRi6TA19pauTbPQs3qA7fFm-iaZQ_g0jRffI5= 21zuMLyiCZPHemO7Ev7vb1g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37660514 37450462 36290277 36660047 36529988=20
35769998 34490079 33810262 33750455 34780620=20
36000569 36500540 37230523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112018
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120147-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0911
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...KS/MO/OK border southwest across central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112017Z - 120147Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop from=20
southwest MO into central OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to isolated to
widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...A surface convergence zone/baroclinic trough
stretches from western MO past the MO/KS/OK border junction
through north-central OK. Near this boundary is an ML CAPE
gradient, with values of 2500-3000 J/kg lying to its south. An
MCV from overnight convective activity is entering central OK from
the west while another overnight MCV moves across portions of IA
to the north. Precipitable water values are ~1.8". Effective
bulk shear is just shy of 25 kts per SPC mesoanalyses. CIN has
nearly eroded.

The mesoscale guidance appears to be modeling the development of
this convective activity well, thus far. It is showing the entire
axis lighting up over the next several hours, which will help
force the boundary southward late in the period. Northeastern
areas near the KS/MO border have had a bit of rain lately, leaving
them more sensitive. Otherwise, it's been dry across much of OK.=20
Issues should primarily reside where soils have been partially
compromised in northeastern areas, in urban areas, and any
sections of the Ozarks or Boston Mountains that thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall transect.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6JcSoLpPMAoIG3mXlrrw1ivQ9BbBREYoZEsirevNHU6ma63ijgnteiqi8nDHQiYPjB-1= 5CmcqpYM5NdycaZwmFt_94w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38169409 37899353 37259353 36639383 35409532=20
35099798 35889815 36849682 37509557 38149468=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120045
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-120643-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0912
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of Eastern NM, the TX Panhandle, & OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120043Z - 120643Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across this region are
expected to concentrate near southwest OK by 07z. Hourly amounts
to 3" with local totals to 5" are expected, which would continue
to lead to scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Thunderstorms continue to build and move across
portions of eastern NM, the TX Panhandle, northwest TX, and
portions of OK, focusing and being driven forward by outflow
boundaries. They have a history of producing hourly amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" thus far this afternoon and evening. A ML
CAPE gradient exists near the effective frontal zone, with pockets
of 2000-3000 J/kg of instability in its warm sector. Effective
bulk shear has spread eastward, with a magnitude of 25-35 kts
regionally. Precipitable water values are 1-1.25" in the High
Plains and 2"+ across portions of OK. So far, much of the
thunderstorm activity has resembled pulse convection, with cell
mergers and very short periods of training occurring and being
important to heavy rain efficiency. In some areas, backbuilding
has been noted. Central and southern OK convection has been
backbuilding and pushing slowly westward, driven by outflow
boundaries.=20

Both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF probabilities suggest a set of
outflow boundaries approaching Clovis NM helps drive a new
convective cluster which joins forces with TX Panhandle activity
in their combined quest to move eastward along an outflow boundary intersection. This cluster has the benefit of a stronger
low-level inflow from the Gulf. Meanwhile, outflow boundaries in
OK pushes convective clusters apart in central OK early on,
driving some activity eastward to form one last merger not far
from McAlester OK. Another, more significant merger between the
TX Panhandle/northwest TX activity and the OK activity is
advertised across far southwest OK by 07z with the TX activity
appearing to grow in dominance/importance as it attempts to
continue eastward thereafter, possibly aided to a growing cold
pool. While there have been small pockets of heavy rainfall, much
of the region has been dry during the past seven days. Scattered
flash flood issues are expected to be mainly urban.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9aQARXSXRcfoWpzQbtTM7luyrGvNLApaUgxR8KwV5wRMFwP1DSY9Ui4XdT3JTmaavS0h= V0v3ZFu2_7UFnMKuHxWNg2Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SGF...SJT...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36579481 36509413 35299454 34019570 33399700=20
33269908 33740111 33350320 33420399 33580428=20
33710506 34270438 35090434 35250306 35500190=20
35790088 35599967 35459910 35379869 35349741=20
35779619 36559495=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120113
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-120541-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0913
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
912 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...northeast IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120111Z - 120541Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop in
north-central IL, trying to attain a training signature as they
aim towards Chicagoland and grow in coverage. Hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which would be
problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...since 2330z, showers and thunderstorms have been
developing, slowly growing in scale, and trying to align south and
east of Peru IL within an area of low-level convergence. Hourly
rain amounts in spots have exceeded 1.5" per radar estimates.=20
Precipitable water values are ~1.9 per GPS data. ML CAPE is
2500-3500 J/kg to their south. Effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts
is trying to align the activity.

The 12z & 18z HREF runs were insistent on this activity forming,
whereas the 06z and 12z REFS had a much weaker signal, so used the
HREF as a guide (outside of the IA contribution which is
underperforming on the HREF). The convective packet is moving
east-northeast at 15-20 kts, with individual cells moving quicker
than the packet as a whole. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible over the next 3-4 hours. This
could lead to problems in Chicagoland tonight.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8D0Dkr8qJgiiOsyFHMaTOAUmevGRDrB_k1_YukUqwjPYMd4mKpJvJOsTsDOnIOQO_dxT= KHM2l4AHhS_brtmO0U5dzfo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42208780 41668747 40738957 40698991 40858984=20
41598892=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120331
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-120900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0914
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1130 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Missouri, Southeast Iowa, Western
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120329Z - 120900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms expanding across northern
Missouri will lift slowly northeast overnight. Rainfall rates
within this convection will reach 1-2"/hr, locally higher at
times, resulting in 1-2" of rainfall. This may cause flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows an expanding
area of showers and thunderstorms developing from north-central
Missouri into southeast Iowa. This convection is blossoming in
response to ascent driven by an overlap of modest height falls
downstream of a shortwave trough axis positioned over Nebraska,
and an MCV from remnant convection moving into southern Iowa.
Downstream of these features, a S/SW LLJ at 850mb has been
recently measured via local VWPs to be 15 kts, which is
originating from a region of elevated thermodynamics sufficient to
fuel heavy rain in thunderstorms. As this LLJ locally backs and
accelerates downstream of the MCV, it will draw PWs as high as 2
inches, and MUCAPE above 2000 J/kg, northward, providing
additional fuel for persistent convection within a WAA regime
overnight.

Rainfall rates as estimated via local radars have been generally
modest so far at around 0.5-1"/hr. However, as the LLJ continues
to strengthen it will not only resupply the more favorable
thermodynamics northward, but also result in enhanced convergent
ascent to drive stronger convection. During the next few hours,
the CAMs, while mostly under-representing the current activity,
suggest thunderstorms will become more widespread, and the HREF
neighborhood probabilities indicate a 10-20% chance of 2"/hr rain
rates developing, with brief rates to 3"/hr possible as shown by
the 15-min HRRR rain accumulation. At the same time, while 0-6km
mean winds will remain progressive to the northeast at 20-25 kts,
sufficient bulk shear of 20-25 kts will help organize storms into
clusters, coincident with Corfidi vectors collapsing to 5 kts or
less and veering to the south. This indicates an increasing threat
for backbuilding/training convection within the improving WAA.

Although HREF 6-hr rainfall probabilities for 3" are modest at
10-15%, indicating that generally 1-2" of rain is likely with
locally higher amounts, this may still be sufficient to cause
rapid runoff. Not only will the rates be intense, but FFG is as
low as 1.5-2"/3hrs for which the HREF exceedance probabilities
peak around 20%. This is further evidence for the increasing flash
flood risk overnight, with at least isolated instances possible in
urban areas, over the more vulnerable soils, or where the most
significant training can occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-Wg4J8PPfQV0EfImKwv_a2YKq5N6tCvRJ74PlVn6hiQp2b993WAitry3AS8TcYfvmL-= UtafYSWDJjsPlnjvfC8K56w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42079071 41298973 40588957 39738995 39249075=20
39199086 38789174 38629258 38949335 39559371=20
40229386 40909354 41699259=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120423
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0915
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, far Northeast
Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120421Z - 121000Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to
pulse up along outflow boundaries and storm mergers overnight.
Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are expected, which could produce 1-2"
of rain in 30 minutes. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows an expansion
of convection across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This
convection is associated with multiple remnant outflow boundaries
that are clearly evident on radar, with convergence along these
boundaries leading to rapid updraft intensification to produce
dditional convective development. Estimated rainfall rates have
been as high as 2"/hr from KSRX, supported by rich thermodynamics
characterized by GPS measured PWs of 1.7 inches overlapping MUCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg. Additional ascent is being provided via slow
height falls downstream of a mid-level trough axis centered across
KS/OK.

The high-res CAMs are really struggling tonight with the current
activity, so their solutions must be used cautiously. However, an
ingredients based approach to the evolution combined with analysis
of current radar trends suggests that there can be several more
hours of slow moving storms before instability gets exhausted or
overturned. With PWs and MUCAPE remaining robust within the
pre-convective environment, any mergers/outflow collisions should
additionally result in thunderstorm growth, and a slow trend E/SE
in coverage is likely. 0-6km bulk shear across the region is
minimal at less than 20 kts, so storms should remain primarily of
the pulse variety. This suggests limited temporal duration of any
individual cell, but with chaotic motions driven primarily by
these small scale collisions thanks to weak 0-6km mean winds, some
places could receive multiple rounds of convection.

These thunderstorms will likely continue to produce rainfall rates
of 2-3"/hr (HREF probabilities for 2"/hr 15-30%), so even though
residence times will be limited, any storm may produce a quick
1-2" of rain in well under an hour. This will be sufficient to
cause rapid runoff despite elevated FFG, and a few instances of
flash flooding are possible overnight, especially across any more
sensitive or urban areas.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-s5q1JYBL5Es53Nme6TuhNiAPPNOU4PEWEWjW23lwSk5tBH8v8aZ9_SFS7_0m6LPLipU= 9KTQQ1-3tQOnpMSJUz4lh2g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37169302 36809253 35989236 34889240 34079276=20
33419371 33009481 32799566 32759667 33079736=20
33579774 34119777 34389725 34659630 35069559=20
35709530 36779400=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120647
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-121200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0916
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Areas affected...West/Central Oklahoma into far Northern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120646Z - 121200Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will move across
parts of Oklahoma and Texas through morning. Rainfall rates of
2-3"/hr are likely, which through this slow motion could produce
2-4" of rainfall and instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery early this morning indicates a
new swath of cooling cloud tops north of a large convective
complex moving from the Texas Panhandle to along the Red River
Valley of the South. This fresh convection is associated with
increasing convergence along the nose of a S/SE oriented, but
modest, 10-15kt 850mb LLJ measured via regional VWPs and analyzed
by the SPC RAP. Despite the modest intensity, this LLJ is
favorably transporting robust thermodynamics northward to support
this new convection, with PWs above 1.75 inches and MUCAPE
exceeding 1000 J/kg. Into these thermodynamics, forcing for ascent
is being provided via convergence along the aforementioned nose of
this LLJ, but also synoptically downstream of a trough axis
kicking slowly eastward from the High Plains, and an embedded
shortwave moving into the region through the base of the trough.
Additionally, a small but well placed 300mb jet streak over KS is
leaving favorable RRQ diffluence to increase deep layer lift.

The CAMs are generally struggling with the current increase of
convective coverage, so confidence in evolution through morning is
somewhat limited. However, there is some evidence in the recent
NAM3Km and RRFS of handling this new convection a bit better, so
these are used to help gauge the flash flood risk. As the LLJ
gradually veers (but with some acceleration immediately downstream
of the shortwave) it should continue to resupply favorable
thermodynamics to support thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. At
the same time, forcing for ascent will persist for several more
hours before the LLJ veers too far to the west by morning,
suggesting thunderstorms will continue to expand. Rainfall rates
within this development should exceed 2"/hr at times as reflected
by both HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities, and with mean
0-6km winds of just 5-10 kts aligned with propagation vectors
along the nose of this LLJ, regenerating and training cells with
these intense rain rates are likely.

Where the most pronounced training occurs, this could result in
2-4" of rainfall as reflected by the HREF/REFS PMM. While there is
considerable uncertainty into the placement of this heaviest
rainfall due to the lack of model agreement and some interruption
of the flow possible from other convective clusters in the
vicinity, the EAS probabilities indicate the best threat will be
along and just south of this LLJ nose. Regardless of the exact
placement, slow moving/backbuilding of these intense rain rates
will pose a flash flood risk during the next few hours.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-zBZKlRcWbXq2Q11z1MiHkmTXWqytgupKL_nDayQEDtE3iHItqR-6Xvncg_gWfN5ykiC= LY1VQaGXJEOrJgHBBWDIDJc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36629994 36309878 35869772 35169699 34549686=20
34049707 33569747 33259812 33199891 33569973=20
33990014 34780031 35420050 36020077 36500118=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120958
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-121430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0917
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast through central Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120957Z - 121430Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms streaming onshore will train
north this morning. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are likely, which
could produce 2-4" of rain along the immediate coast. This may
cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows an
expansion of showers with isolated thunderstorms across the
northern Gulf. Although instability continues to be modest onshore
(MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg inland from the coast) a sharp instability
gradient exists across the FL Panhandle westward to the coasts of
AL and MS. Recent analysis of 850mb winds from the regional VWPs
and the SPC RAP analysis indicate the inflow has increased to
20-30 kts with some local backing to the SE, leading to increasing
N-S oriented convergence which is helping to drive lines of
convection pushing onshore. At the same time, weak MCVs noted in
reflectivity and a surface trough analyzed by WPC are helping to
enhance ascent locally as well.

Ascent into the area will remain impressive through morning, and
may actually intensify as the 850mb LLJ reaches 1.5x the mean wind
(850mb winds to 30 kts, mean wind to 20 kts) forcing more broad
lift. This ascent will act upon thermodynamics that will become
increasingly robust through extreme PWs measured by GPS above 2.3
inches and MUCAPE which will gradually expand inland both through
the 850mb transport but also in response to daytime heating.
Together, this suggests that convection will continue push
onshore, while gradually spreading northward in response to the
strengthening instability.

The high-res CAMs have struggled this morning to resolve the
ongoing activity, which is more widespread and intense than any
available guidance. However, the recent HRRR runs have started to
catch on and insist that convection will become widespread later
this morning. This appears likely, and as the environment becomes
more thermodynamically rich, rainfall rates will likely reach
2-3"/hr as progged by both HREF neighborhood probabilities and the
HRRR 15-min rainfall accumulation. More concerning to the flash
flood risk will be that storms will likely train repeatedly south
to north as mean 0-6km winds of 10-15 kts suggest progressive
cells, but propagation vectors aligned anti-parallel and into the
Gulf indicate backbuilding potential. Where this training is most
prolonged, 2-4" of rainfall is possible through the morning.

FFG across this area is quite high at 3-4"/3hrs, and HREF FFG
exceedance probabilities are generally below 15%. However, where
any of these narrow training bands persist, especially if they
occur over urban areas, instances of flash flooding may result,
with the greatest potential occurring along the immediate coast.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mGE-pFkZny07w97O8ihRpXeXudfjyAWcejdl_7aYyLFwRq-vDMdHTt969QEt-t5BnRH= GQLDve1h_KI3zL_cashyD_0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34128738 33708648 33128592 31628530 30388504=20
30028536 30118611 30178665 30218707 30088793=20
29498858 29138887 28928913 28978948 29128970=20
29118999 29259022 29589018 29918978 30208937=20
30458887 30738836 31338817 32178815 33098835=20
33918831=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121209
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-121808-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0918
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Areas affected...portions of central/Upstate South Carolina and
central North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121208Z - 121808Z

Summary...Areas of heavier rainfall are materializing across the
discussion area and 1 inch/hr rain rates are increasing in
coverage. These rates are falling on sensitive ground conditions
from prior rainfall. Flash flooding is possible this morning.

Discussion...Over the past half hour, radar and satellite have
indicated an uptick in convective intensity and coverage generally
in areas from central South Carolina into southwestern North
Carolina. This uptick in convective coverage appears to be tied
to a weak mid-level shortwave trough/vorticity max over central
South Carolina. The showers/storms are in a marginally unstable,
but very moist environment (1.5-2 inch PW values, 1000 J/kg
SBCAPE) with weak inhibition, fostering efficient rainfall rates
with the ongoing activity. Latest MRMS data suggests that 1
inch/hr rain rates were beginning to materialize in a few spots.=20 Furthermore, these rates were falling on sensitive local ground
conditions due to prior rainfall, with FFG thresholds below 0.25
inch/hr in a few spots across the discussion area.

Models/observations are all suggestive of a gradual increase in
both coverage and intensity of convection through the morning
hours. With weak southwesterly steering flow in place, several
areas of slow-moving convection and occasional cell mergers are
expected to develop and boost rain rates into and above the 1
inch/hr threshold at times. These rates will pose a flash flood
risk, though the greatest risk of impacts may occur near sensitive
urban areas and locales that have experienced the highest rainfall
totals over the past 1-2 days. Areas just west of Columbia, SC
could experience excessive runoff in the near term, with
additional locales (including urban areas near Raleigh/Durham and
Columbia) experiencing an increasing threat through 16Z/noon EDT
or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4EKeuxKsk7-uujb1RTjzVj24QTN_HxsiRRw3en8OGRvX76ScVdRYaokfSDnyrYKlMvi9= Lvb1fb0043lWWUYt3lj3bWE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36297879 35577734 33738053 33548204 35158286=20
35978159 36268043=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122115
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-130200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
514 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Areas affected...Greater Chicagoland and surrounding portions of
IL/OH/MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122110Z - 130200Z

Summary...Hourly rainfall totals of 1-2" may locally train/repeat
over sensitive urban areas. Locally significant/life threatening
instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Convection has proliferated in the vicinity of a
surface trough of low pressure this afternoon, extending from
western MI through northern IL. While deep layer moisture flux
convergence has spiked synoptically along the trough axis, an
enhanced meso to microscale area of near surface convergence
exists along the southern shore of Lake Michigan (and most
pronounced along the IL shore). This is occurring as upper-level shear/divergence is only increasing, as the base of a potent
shortwave trough progresses eastward across northern MN/WI. The
idealized right-entrance region of an associated jet streak (~110
kts at 250 mb) may allow for this convection to persist for longer
than anticipated, as CAMs have generally been much slower/weaker
with convection than actual observational trends. With the
mechanism for lift and convective longevity clearly established,
plentiful instability (3000-3500 J/kg across northern IL) and
anomalous tropopsheric moisture (~2.0" PWs above the 90th
percentile, per ILX sounding climatology). MRMS estimates hourly
rainfall amounts locally as high as 2", and even without
training/repeating (thus far) the associated CREST unit streamflow
values suggests minor to moderate flood impacts are already
occurring (particularly where these 2" totals are co-located with
more sensitive urbanized terrain).

Going forward, CAMs suggest the potential for additional localized
totals of 2-4" (HREF 40-km neighborhood exceedance probs for 3"
threshold of 10-20% through 03z). Since most models were too slow
to develop convection, much of this forecast rainfall may have
simply occurred early. However, given the aforementioned favorable
mesoscale environment (with little depletion of instability and
increasingly favorable dynamics) it's quite possible that heavy
rainfall will continue for several hours still, eventually coming
to an end between 00-02z. Given the potential for
training/repeating with little movement in the trough axis and
baroclinic lake enhancement, a significant instance or two of
flash flooding is possible (and may become life threatening in
more sensitive, low-lying populated areas of Chicagoland).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-sAtEx_qMfvLfJ_Y_lQ-4btitGjJQjzNIHeugNXXgqFX5JYKzEWsIMiAeImX8FqLvam0= WiqkdDOBwKZk8uI-9NtV97I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42468708 42228647 41838622 41178670 40648751=20
40468857 40608902 41598821 42218789=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130649
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0920
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130647Z - 131200Z

Summary...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will train onshore
through morning from eastern MS through the western FL Panhandle.
Rainfall rates within these tropical downpours will reach 3"/hr at
times, which through training could produce stripes of 2-4" of
rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
rapid expansion of tropical showers with isolated thunderstorms
aligned south to north in the vicinity of Mobile Bay, AL. This
expanding convection is associated with a weak surface trough
extending across the area, with upstream onshore flow from the
Gulf drawing impressive moisture northward. The greatest
instability (MUCAPE above 1000 J/kg) is confined to the immediate
coast, and this has been the demarcation of the heaviest rainfall
rates so far this morning, but PWs above 2 inches extend all the
way into northern AL, with recent GPS measured PWs reaching 2.4
inches near Mobile Bay. These extreme PWs and warm cloud depths
over 15,000 ft have been supporting efficient warm-rain collision
processes, with MRMS 15-min rainfall measured as high as 0.7
inches (3"/hr) already in some of the cells training onshore.

The high-res CAMs are actually in pretty good agreement both with
the footprint and amount of the expected rainfall through around
12Z, focusing from the AL/MS border eastward towards the Emerald
Coast of the Florida Panhandle. Here, 850mb winds measured via
current VWPs have already reached 15-25 kts, exceeding the mean
wind of 10-15 kts to drive enhanced ascent through convergence. As
this inflow continues to draw robust thermodynamics northward,
regenerating cells are expected to develop across the Gulf and
then repeatedly train northward and onshore.

The HREF neighborhood rainfall rate probabilities for 2"/hr peak
above 60% during the next few hours, suggesting the deeper cores
will contain rates that may exceed 3"/hr at times. Although storms
will move steadily northward, with several rounds of rainfall
anticipated, this could result in 2-4" of rain with locally higher
amounts possible as reflected by HREF/REFS 5"/6hr probabilities
reaching 15-40%. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be along the
immediate coast in the vicinity of Mobile Bay, but as the axis of
elevated 850mb winds push northeast through morning, the
environment could support more expansive heavy rainfall farther
north into parts of southern AL as well. This suggests that while
any impacts will be most likely along the immediate coast and over
urban areas, any training of these intense rates, especially as
instability pushes northward later this morning, could result in
instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-L8Z3naUd_aU_PnOhf_tjoUlmUbMikEjE__X7VOIyUgudZcI23OlZBoO6tphKcpJ5aE9= 7vmbHKW50YIu6jCatQXU5Zo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32218747 32128689 31788655 31188610 30758593=20
30308583 30118653 30068714 29998814 30068854=20
30148882 30858909 31258859 31628832 32008791=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130842
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0921
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas through Central Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130841Z - 131330Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will drift across the region
through morning. Intense rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr will likely
cause pockets of 2-3" of rainfall in less than 1 hour. This may
cause instances of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms noted on the regional radar
mosaic early this morning have rapidly expanded across western and
central Tennessee and back into northeast Arkansas. This
convection is blossoming within a plume of elevated moisture
evident on the GOES-E WV imagery on SW flow emerging from the Gulf
Coast downstream of a mid-level trough axis that is still hung
back across MO/AR. Cloud top cooling is continuing to occur across
the area as well, indicating that convection is going to continue
to develop and intensify in response to deep layer ascent provided
through modest height falls, weak upper jet diffluence, and
low-level convergence along a surface trough. Together these are
driving sufficient lift for the rapid uptick in thunderstorm
coverage, as this ascent is working upon robust thermodynamics
characterized by PWs measured by GPS of more than 2 inches
coincident with a ribbon of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE.

Storms that have developed already have produced MRMS measured
1-hr rainfall of more than 2 inches in some areas, and the
resulting FLASH unit streamflow response has reached 200-400
cfs/smi. This has prompted already at least one FFW SW of
Nashville, TN. The concern through the morning will be that these
storms will continue to produce excessive rainfall rates of
2-4"/hr, although the HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities for
2"/1hr are modest at just 10-15%. However, the CAMs are really
struggling with the ongoing activity, so the ensemble
probabilities are suffering and are likely too low. Additionally,
with the primary 850mb inflow from the W/SW, propagation vectors
have dropped to 5 kts or less and are aligned with the weak mean
0-6km wind (around 10 kts) to the primary trough axis. This is
resulting in cells that at times have net motion near zero,
especially near mergers/outflow collisions driven by pulse storms
in the weak shear environment, lengthening the duration of this
heavy rainfall.

Although confidence in the evolution the next few hours is lower
than typical due to lack of model support, the recent HRRR has
started to capture the ongoing scenario and has exhibited a rapid
increase in coverage and amounts of QPF the next few hours. This
indicates that the environment will remain favorable for heavy
rainfall, and where storms train/stall, 2-3" of rainfall could
occur in less than 1 hour, with locally 4" possible by later this
morning. Despite elevated FFG from recent dryness, these rainfall
rates falling atop any more vulnerable soils or less-permeable
urban areas, could result in flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6CTDGpysdS25mf6q1KvIInXWRn_m-k2LUW9IXXpzKQWXqhFp9f5QAxUfPAZIbAGIscEC= Nnoi-oKGS1ChFISn6RX9XMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37008724 36908570 36288544 35738569 35128660=20
34838778 34848882 35069004 35549099 36289126=20
36628992=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130952
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-131500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0922
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
552 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...northern Alabama through far northeast Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130951Z - 131500Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand and intensify
through the morning along a low-level convergence axis. Rainfall
rates within the stronger storms will reach 1-2"/hr, which through
training could produce 2-4" of rainfall. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery early this morning shows a slow
uptick in coverage of rapidly cooling cloud tops along a linear
boundary from northern AL through northeast TN. The colder and
deeper clouds are associated with thunderstorms evident on the
regional radar mosaic, with 1-hr rainfall measured via MRMS as
much as 1.5" beneath the stronger cells.

These thunderstorms are developing in response to intensifying
ascent impinging across robust thermodynamics. A mid-level trough
axis remains positioned well west of the region, which is leaving
pronounced low-to-mid level SW flow emerging from the Gulf and
advecting PWs above 2 inches northeastward, which is above the
90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology. This is
overlapped with a ribbon of MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg to provide an
environment favorable for heavy rain. Acting upon this airmass is
pronounced ascent driven by multiple ripples/weak shortwaves
moving through the flow combined with weak RRQ diffluence in the
tail of a jet streak positioned just NW of TN. Additionally, the
850mb LLJ has been steady from the WSW at 15-25 kts on the
regional VWPs, with the convergent nose providing an additional
mechanism for lift.

The result of this has been the growth and expansion of convection
the past hour or so, which is likely to continue for the next
several hours, potentially enhanced by an outflow boundary
dropping southeast as well. The high-res CAMs are struggling to
resolve the current activity, although the trends in the recent
HRRR, as well as the ARW and HREF-PMM support the increasing flash
flood risk. Rainfall rates will likely continue to surge to
1-2"/hr, and storms should move slowly northeast on mean 0-6km
winds of 5-10 kts. Concerning, however, is that propagation
vectors are aligned to the mean wind and also just 5-10 kts,
suggesting that cells will continue to regenerate along this
convergent nose and track northeast, a clear training signature
for the next several hours. While eventually the LLJ should veer
more to the west to reduce the training threat, until this happens
some areas could receive 2-4" of rainfall with locally higher
amounts (HREF neighborhood probabilities for 5" up to 15%).

Additionally, this rain could fall atop vulnerable soils where
3-hr FFG is as low as 1.5-2 inches, and the HREF exceedance
probabilities rise to 15-30%. Any training to produce locally
heavier rainfall across these soils or in any urban areas/more
sensitive terrain could produce impacts from flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6FO-tex0-VR9730QWMzXkVuqEH1jhmntkVp9Buu4CWkRLPhxKB_RtcBPAICXYBmG8tFu= gq8yUGg2xBzt1sJcWcqYpyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37148163 36968119 36488125 36048173 35678219=20
34928316 34528412 34298496 34008606 33918704=20
34098759 34878735 35708625 36238530 36618398=20
37068243=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131205
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-131630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0923
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131204Z - 131630Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated bands of showers and thunderstorms
with high rainfall rates will continue this morning across
portions of southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Areas of
flash flooding will be possible, and especially for the more
urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES_E IR satellite imagery along
with surface observations shows a well-defined low-level vort
center and a fairly sharp surface trough advancing
east-northeastward to the east of Mobile Bay. This energy
continues to foster some deep convection around its southern flank
as very moist, convergent and unstable low-level flow advects
inland off the nearby Gulf of America and into portions of
southern AL and the western FL Panhandle.

MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg are pooled up across the western FL
Panhandle with PWs of 2.25+ inches, and this region in particular
will tend to be the primary focus area for additional bands of
convection over the next few hours. Rainfall rates up to 2
inches/hour are expected to continue, and some additional storm
totals amounts of up to 3 to 5 inches will be possible given
localized cell-training concerns with these bands of convection
that cross the Gulf Coast and advance inland.

Some locations that will likely be impacted by heavy rainfall this
morning include the Pensacola to Panama City corridor, and there
may be some localized urban flooding concerns that materialize.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_invE_lQ121_TUQZYWLQcGoIH8TrLgKC8MsN5EYCKBkQBGPb911rfyn-cD2VFDrD7m4I= ZULtbITHY847L4EDYbJs5PA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31338613 30878515 30278497 29848528 30298638=20
30208758 30368800 30988802 31288733=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131236
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-131800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0924
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
835 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central to Northeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131235Z - 131800Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms
over portions of central to northeast TX should foster at least an
isolated threat for flash flooding going through midday.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery
shows a well-defined mid-level vort center/shortwave gradually
crossing central to northeast TX which coupled with a surface
trough is helping to foster a broken axis of slow-moving shower
and thunderstorm activity.

Much of the convection is somewhat elevated, but is also focusing
within a convergent low-level flow regime around the southern
flank of the vort energy. MUCAPE value of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are
noted, with PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches helping to support rainfall
rates of up to 2.5 inches/hour with some of the stronger storms.

Weak and somewhat variable upwind propagation vectors are noted
around the southern flank of the vort energy, and this suggests an
environment that is conducive for backbuilding and locally
training showers and thunderstorms. Given this and the cooling
cloud top trends, this activity is likely to persist for at least
the next few hours across areas of northeast TX in particular.

Recent HRRR guidance suggests locally an additional 3 to 5 inches
of rain, and these additional rains are likely to result in
scattered areas of flash flooding going through midday.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-qz1LvMSVK_QYA8dDdv1DtyEoP5H8DRZDG0c1mOOvH26k0xmaMnQfbtdnBy3XMYwOzhF= hk36v9g2pQPJj_cCZgRvEcg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33639463 32899395 31729491 31389691 31899810=20
32479795 32759622=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131426
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-132025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0925
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1025 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131425Z - 132025Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms with locally
extreme rainfall rates will tend to expand in coverage over the
next several hours. Scattered areas of flash flooding will
gradually become likely, and especially later this afternoon
closer to the I-95 corridor of the Mid-Atlantic where an urban
flash flood threat is expected to evolve.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery shows a band
of heavy showers and thunderstorms moving into northern WV, and
the latest trends show cooling cloud tops associated with this
activity.

This convection is associated with the southwest flank of
mid-level vort energy going into the central Appalachians which is
embedded within a very moist and moderately unstable environment.
MLCAPE values across northern WV and western MD, and areas east of
the Blue Ridge over the Mid-Atlantic, are locally on the order of
1000+ J/kg. However, the PWs are quite high and locally over 2
standard deviations above normal.

In fact, the 12Z RAOB soundings from KPIT and KIAD showed PWs of
1.86 and 2.22 inches respectively with tall skinny CAPE profiles
and elevated WBZ/freezing levels. This is strongly suggestive of a
very efficient and tropical environment that will promote highly
efficient processes for locally extreme rainfall rates that may
reach well into the 2 to 3+ inch/hour range.

Convection should tend to generally build in coverage over the
next several hours as this vort energy advances off to the east
across the central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region.
This will support heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing east
through central and northern WV, western MD and southwest PA in
the near-term.

However, as instability and convergent low-level flow becomes
better established this afternoon east of the Blue Ridge and into
the Chesapeake Bay region, there will likely be the development
and expansion of very heavy showers and thunderstorms across much
of northern VA, central to northeast MD and southern PA, including
areas along the I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia.

The latest hires model guidance may be underplaying the rainfall
potential given the level of moisture that is in place, and there
will the influence of diurnal heating and orographics that will
also support an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Slow cell-motions and localized cell-training concerns coupled
with locally extreme rainfall rates may support some localized
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches. Areas of scattered flash
flooding will become likely in time, and this will include an
increasing urban flash flood threat near the I-95 corridor by
later this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BDgP8HIv5WDq8BcVl3dNGRRle70i2vNKdHEmFfl2ZsQtkVHeh08Ox-BZ5pMJwmlNwHH= O9WllFgWJyH_VkEemcudl3o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41027601 40757482 39907456 39127511 38337647=20
37887805 37677977 37758073 38308145 39238129=20
39828054 40087923 40477767=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131501
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-132100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0926
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the TN Valley...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131500Z - 132100Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to impact areas of the TN Valley and the southern
Appalachians going through the mid-afternoon hours. Additional
scattered areas of flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery along with
radar shows an expansive axis of broken showers and thunderstorms
extending from northern AL through eastern TN, northwest NC and
southwest VA. This activity continues to be focused along an
elongated axis of mid-level vort energy which is interacting with
a combination of very moist/unstable air and favorable orographics
near areas of higher terrain.

3-hour MLCAPE differentials off the latest RAP shows a notable
increase in instability across areas of eastern AL through
northern GA and into the eastern slopes of the southern
Appalachians. This instability along with moist southerly flow and
influence from differential heating boundaries ahead of the vort
energy should favor a general expansion of convection off to the
east going through the early and mid-afternoon hours.

PWs are locally over 2 standard deviations above normal and the
environment is strongly conducive for highly efficient rainfall
processes and potentially extreme rainfall rates. Areas of
greatest short-term concern may tend to be across northeast AL
through far southeast TN and northern GA where visible satellite
imagery shows a well-defined differential heating boundary and an
agitated CU field expanding in coverage.

Additional areas of convection near and just east of the southern
Appalachians from northwest SC and western NC into southwest VA
will be expected as well with locally very high rainfall rates.
Slow-moving cell-motions and the efficient tropical environment
will support locally 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates and some
spotty storm totals of 3 to 5 inches by later this afternoon.

These rains are likely to support additional scattered areas of
flash flooding, and especially with locally wet/saturated
antecedent conditions.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_fOPX_jkq-ATXh6gnquYJd8ItVsuzAAcrDAqm9NSjWPAJQXv4XeY47xX1cYITDPhyCBU= d8SBy8rAec8NJrPkWaAKdeU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...OHX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37218083 36798037 35848104 34808215 34338299=20
33508461 33308591 33408728 33978761 34758682=20
35558556 36318387 36898240=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131810
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0927
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131808Z - 140000Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms
may produce isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding going
through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with radar shows a gradual expansion of shower and
thunderstorm activity occurring across areas of northeast PA and
southeast NY. This convection is forming within an increasingly
moist and unstable airmass that is currently characterized by
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and PWs of generally near 1.75
inches.

Meanwhile, there is some upper-level support with the approach of
an upstream vort center over northern PA which coupled with
localized orographics and additional diurnal heating should favor
additional expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity
over the next several hours which will include areas farther east
eventually inclusive of northern NJ, the northwest suburbs of New
York City, and adjacent areas of southern New England.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms will be capable of
reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, and with slow cell-motions and
some concerns for localized backbuilding and training of
convective cells, some rainfall totals by this evening may reach 3
to 4+ inches. This is generally supported by the 12Z HREF guidance.

The antecedent conditions across much of the region are on the dry
side, and this will mitigate the flash flood threat to an extent.
However, with such high rainfall rate potential and the localized
storm totals that may occur, there may be some isolated to
scattered flash flooding concerns. This will especially be the
case near areas of more rugged terrain such as the Poconos and
Catskills, along with any of the more urbanized locations to the
northwest of New York City and across southern New England.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fDd8jSDjRgfW5Fk6LwTG4L9XjIxiNXUHagBbH6WsG2upyGby22f4yc1wrSTRm2bKh8e= _ly2h57bo7DeSV2bqFftXYI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CTP...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43657338 43497218 42507219 41807271 41257366=20
40897475 41037599 41497634 41827601 42297536=20
42907444=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132019
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-140215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0928
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132018Z - 140215Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
will continue to impact areas of the Mid-South going into the
evening hours. Additional isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates impacting portions of middle TN down through northwest AL
and northeast MS. This activity is embedded within a very noist
and unstable airmass with relatively divergent flow aloft and some
modest effective bulk shear facilitating some loose organization
of the convective cells.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are in place with PWs of 2.0 to
2.25 inches and this will continue to yield high rainfall rates
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the more organized and
stronger storms. The cell-motions are generally off to the
south-southeast with the deeper layer flow, but the weak steering
currents should maintain slow cell-motions through the evening
hours.

Some additional expansion of convection may occur over the next
couple of hours as a combination of locally stronger instability
and outflow boundary collisions favor swaths of more convective
initiation. The latest hires guidance suggests areas of middle TN
down through northwest AL should tend to be the primary corridor
of heavier rainfall potential over the next few hours. This is
also where the 12Z HREF has some of the higher probabilities for
exceeding the 3-hour FFG values.

Locally an additional 3 to 4+ inches will be possible through this
evening, and these rains should continue to support concerns for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9d-nBPNtLrDdhYGfgu8Q-VHVfmydrNgs6mrBm7TISgI5CsL5g1i0EBGnDbvBpOyFa_VC= N0nECrQk1P3SenIXCMa91bE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36248717 36068624 35098609 33558685 32908804=20
32928901 33908931 35388849=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132059
FFGMPD CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-14025=
5-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0929
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and into the Central/Northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132055Z - 140255Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms with locally
extreme rainfall rates will continue going into the evening hours
across the interior of the central and northern Mid-Atlantic
region. Scattered areas of flash flooding will be likely which
will include strong concerns for urban flash flooding impacts near
and along the I-95 corridor.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery shows clusters
of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting central to northern
VA with some recent development noted across central MD. Meanwhile
farther off to the northeast, there are locally more organized
clusters of cold-topped convection seen impacting eastern PA.

The convection continues to be associated with the leading edge of
an elongated mid-level shear axis/vort center while interacting
with a very moist and strongly unstable airmass that has pooled
across much of the Mid-Atlantic region east of the Blue Ridge.
MLCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg are noted across central VA up
through southeast PA with some uptick in low-level moisture
convergence noted across the region over the last hour including
the middle and upper parts of the Chesapeake Bay area. The PWs are
very high and locally over 2 standard deviations above normal,
with values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches in place.

Early morning RAOB soundings showed tall skinny CAPE profiles and
elevated WBZ/freezing levels. This again strongly supports a very
efficient and tropical environment that will promote highly
efficient processes for extreme rainfall rate potential. Already
some of the stronger storm clusters have been producing rainfall
rates well into the 2 to 3 inch/hour range.

Convection should tend to generally build off to the east through
this evening into portions of the I-95 corridor from near
Washington D.C up through Philadelphia and then on up to at least
near the New York City metropolitan area. Meanwhile, the southwest
flank of the MPD area involving central VA back westward into the
central Appalachians will remain an area for convection as well
given proximity of a well-defined outflow boundary. Radar shows
locally concentrated areas of heavy thunderstorms across these
areas.

Localized/spotty additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4+ inches will
still be possible going through the evening hours. This will
likely promote scattered areas of flash flooding with concerns for
potentially considerable urban flooding impacts if some of the
heavier rainfall totals materialize over some of the larger
metropolitan areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_tydoPRFcqIscxgWPKUD8vbbjFq-kOOhQuFnWq8Sae1XG1Jm9JdMcOxb_26om-e5wmLK= eI0OVTd9MQ24M4l2Pio-dU0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BOX...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41947338 41577241 39937358 38537549 37567763=20
37528000 37888137 38608217 39168190 39228076=20
38897995 38717888 39177744 40247621 41017485=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140046
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-140415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0930
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Far eastern OH...western PA...extreme northern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140045Z - 140415Z

Summary...Locally training thunderstorm segments will maintain the
threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding through 4Z, with
localized 2-3" possible.

Discussion...Radar mosaic over the eastern OH Valley depicts two
segments of thunderstorms exhibitng training characteristics ahead
of a slow moving cold front approaching from the northwest. One
segment of thunderstorms containing estimated 2-2.5"/hr rainfall
rates over Youngstown, OH prompted a Flash Flood Warning as they
trained over the city.

These very efficient rainfall rates suggest the environment in the
prefrontal airmass remains quite favorable for efficient warm
rainfall production in any additional convection which develops.
Recent mesoanalysis data corroborates this idea, and suggests
1.75-1.8" PWATs (around the 97th percentile per the NAEFS),
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (with no CIN), and 20 kts of effective shear
(oriented semi-parallel to the initiating boundary) are in the
vicinity of the ongoing activity even with loss of diurnal
heating. As such, the concern is for additional training segments
to develop in the short term with additional 2-2.5"/hr rates
possible. While the area has been dry as of late per NASA SPoRT,
recent runs of the HRRR suggest localized amounts of 2-3" will be
possible through 4Z, which could prompt additional instances of
flash flooding as 1 HR FFGs are in the 1.5-2"/hr range.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8tK9BEc_yBGSTwd_WQUg7sobBt85XDGfZudaEYMCp3tjvmwXkPsw9TQprCCKAd_tiUla= jBx1epnCvRek3fRM759olW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41477986 41267878 40707858 40297896 40117970=20
40228090 40618133 41228092=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140421
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140857-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0931
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...Northeast SDak...Southeast NDak...Far
West-central MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140417Z - 140857Z

SUMMARY...Regenerative warm-air advection thunderstorms will be
slow to move initially resulting in spots of 2-3.5" and possible
localized flash flooding, before shifting east-northeast toward
early morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and KABR RADAR show a few bands of
thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota into far southeast
North Dakota with downstream cirrus and lighter showers extending
into western Minnesota. GOES-E WV and RAP analysis shows an
exiting and flattening shortwave within synoptic scale ridging
across south central MN into northeast IA, while a stronger
shortwave and associated linear convective complex along the
southern flank of the wave starting to reach central SDak and Sand
Hills of NEB. The low-level jet has responded while recently
strengthening to 45-50kts at 850mb with solid veered 925-700mb
profile along/ahead of the approaching wave. This is obliquely
intersecting the lingering boundary left in the wake of the prior
wave. Recent strengthening and increasing deeper layer moisture
with total PWat values up to 1.75" helps to differentiate the
isentropic boundary across the southern portion of the Red River
Valley; and given increasing core of the unstable air north-south
axis generally along 98-99W with values of 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPEs.
The stronger moisture flux convergence is increasing rainfall
efficiency for the thunderstorms. Rates of 1.5-2"/hr are starting
to become more common with the recent cooling noted in the
convective tops.=20

Along with the strengthening flux convergence, the veered inflow
is also supporting southwestward upwind propagation and given the
sharpness of the ridging between the two mid-level waves, the
deeper layer steering is also slackened to reduce eastward cell
motions as well. This has resulted in back-building and localized
training of downdrafts locally along the best isentropic upglide
ascent plane to increase duration over an hour with repeating that
may allow for localized 2-3.5" totals over the next few hours.=20
Hourly rates are near the hourly FFG, but those locally higher
totals have a good potential to exceed the 3hr FFG values which
range from 1.5-2.5" across the area of concern. As such,
localized flash flooding is considered possible for the next few
hours. As the MCS/shortwave passes, winds will remain strong,
but likely veer further and increase forward propagation into
northwest and west-central MN...but with the decrease in local
duration potential for exceedance will diminish.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4OdAPkGsM-ff6LYoFoLjaaDhOcApoe6CL-SGFGv2L4c2SAtoFdHry8aUUo1Gaz8cSaah= 1thAPr2Ybi-eIdpKsf40DnQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46839674 46239622 45649600 45059601 44669643=20
44739700 44939737 45409775 45799795 46059800=20
46439794 46819753=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141834
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0932
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...SC Pee Dee...Southern and Eastern NC...Southeast
VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141833Z - 150030Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be
developing and expanding in coverage going through the afternoon
hours. High rainfall rates will pose a threat for scattered areas
of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined mid-level vort center with a weak
surface low and associated trough is seen advancing northeast
across central and eastern SC which will be lifting up across
southern and eastern NC going through the afternoon hours. This
energy will be interacting with increasing boundary layer
instability and the pooling of tropical moisture for expanding
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

MLCAPE values have already increased to 2000 to 3000 J/kg across
eastern NC with the aid of stronger solar insolation and some
additional uptick and expansion of this instability is expected
over the next couple of hours. PWs are very high from the SC Pee
Dee region up through eastern NC with values of 2.25 to 2.5 inches
noted.

The strong instability and deep moisture parameters are expected
to favor showers and thunderstorms with extremely high rainfall
rate potential, with some of the stronger convective cells
potentially yielding rainfall rates 2 to 4 inches/hour. Some
uptick in low-level moisture convergence around the eastern flank
of the aforementioned vort/low center will help to also facilitate
some of these higher rainfall rates and a general uptick in
convective organization by later this afternoon.

By early this evening, there will also be some attention focused
across southeast VA as a cold front settling southward toward the
Hampton Roads/Tidewater region begins to interact with this low to
mid-level energy lifting northeast across eastern NC. Stronger
low-level convergence and an improvement in the instability
profile by this evening will eventually drive an increasing threat
of showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates.

Expect some localized rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches to be
possible given the high rainfall rates, and potential for some
spotty cell-training. Much of the hires model CAM guidance
suggests southern and eastern NC will be the area of greatest
concern through 21Z and 00Z, but portions of southeast VA in this
time frame may begin to see the aforementioned uptick in
convection that could drive a couple inches of rain, with more
potential for heavy rainfall afterwards going well into the
evening hours.

Scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible which will
include some localized urban flooding concerns as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-r3hLWvM7_EufC2TIGrholpHMsBWgelijqt1V4zV-j2XAu0MhWGq9L2PSfVfiJRmqGJ3= PvXwMw6lOZd6TQZVa90KqxM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37017644 36827582 35817540 35187546 34677613=20
34367732 33607810 33337891 33417949 34097982=20
34527964 35467797 36667711=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141840
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-150039-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0933
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...western New Mexico, eastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141839Z - 150039Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will expand
in coverage and drift slowly through the afternoon hours.=20
Isolated instances of flash flooding are expected with this
activity.

Discussion...Daytime heating and weak/modest ascent associated
with nearby mid-level vorticity maxima were aiding on a gradual
deepening of convection this afternoon. So far, the deeper cores
have materialized on an isolated basis near terrain-favored
peaks/ridges across southwestern New Mexico. Weak southerly flow
aloft has contributed to slow, erratic storm motions so far, and
PW values (ranging from 0.75 in NM to 1.4 in southern AZ) are just
high enough to promote wetting rainfall and a quick burst of
around 0.5 inch rainfall amounts beneath the more dominant
activity.

With continued daytime heating and surface-based destabilization,
the ongoing scenario is expected to evolve slowly, with storms
expected to expand in coverage. Some of the heavier rainfall
could occur atop burn scars and/or low-lying terrain that could
locally promote excessive runoff and flash flooding. Models
suggest that the flash flood risk should primarily be diurnally
driven, but should also persist beyond 00Z/6p MDT this evening.=20
The heaviest rain rates should occur across portions of Arizona
where higher moisture content is located, although local 1 inch/hr
rain rates could materialize across the entire discussion area
this afternoon.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YGmfRGNxvHvUiX-DZREdW0C8PK7aACwabYmUjTRcVK6OR6c9jBmz82mwdp6gKo9m6i2= qotXpCHWP55b8lcmospacNM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36731249 36200907 34520743 32930680 32190705=20
31510850 31461011 31811123 33481275 35261335=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141928
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-142227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0934
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of Maryland and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141927Z - 142227Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out
as thunderstorms merge and produce heavy rainfall over the next
couple hours.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts expanding
convective coveage across Maryland from near Baltimore southward
along western sides of the Chesapeake Bay to near Waldorf and
Leonardtown. While initial development has been propagating at
around 10-15 knots, the orientation of cells amid weak low-level
shear should enable a greater frequency of cell mergers over the
next couple hours. The airmass supporting thunderstorm
development is abundantly moist (2+ inch PW values, 3000 J/kg
SBCAPE), suggesting that local rain rates could reach 2 inches/hr
in a few spots. This should promote flash flood potential -
especially in urban areas across central/eastern Maryland that
experience heavy rainfall.

The evolving flash flood threat should be relatively brief. As
storms migrate from north to south, rain cooled air/low-level
stabilization should take hold and result in an eventual decrease
in convective coverage after around 22Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6MBRT_ll1e9vlawqn4YbrK-IEUBJYQ-VYIrzPiiA8oo3jmi7lJdmtMp_iJCN7phgWfN7= 7m5ZqSm6qSl8Q82TIkaO05Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39697640 39307595 38487582 37957617 38067695=20
39067718 39667707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150028
FFGMPD
VAZ000-150327-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0935
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150027Z - 150327Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains possible for a few more hours,
though an overall downward trend in convective coverage is
expected through 03Z/11p EDT.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across southeastern
Virginia. Scattered thunderstorms continue to migrate very slowly
ahead of a front draped across the area (subjectively analyzed
from near Danville, VA to Salisbury, MD). Widespread convective
overturning has occurred across North Carolina that should serve
to limit any renewed convective development here. Some
overturning has occurred near Wakefield and Virginia Beach,
although 80s F surface temps just north of that area (near
Williamsburg and Richmond) was continuing to sustain scattered
thunderstorm activity. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates were still
being observed, which isn't surprising given the 2+ inch PW values
within the pre-convective airmass. These rates still support
localized flash flood potential - especially in low-lying and
urbanized areas of southeastern VA.

The ongoing flash flood threat should persist for another couple
hours or so. Widespread convective overturning continues to
exhaust surface-based instability across the region. Meanwhile,
lack of surface heating and eventual progression of a front
through the region should gradually limit the spatial extent of
opportunity for renewed convection. Much of the flash flood
threat should end after 04Z/midnight EDT or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7-C2NzmM7TLaKRAUgzLcqdmi842Rw-MCr_ucu5-IQbSHgysGXGev2qcXx7NqcTdyleZN= FXyAqHRQwHoZ0H8uCh3k4tU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37657659 36967546 36557678 36577833 37097851=20
37597787=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150501
FFGMPD
AZZ000-150930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0936
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...Central Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150500Z - 150930Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms with 1.5-1.75"/hr rates and
localized totals to similar values may pose localized widely
scattered incident or two of flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES-W 10.3um and KIWA RADAR depict an
increase in convective activity over the last hour or so through S
Yavapai into eastern Maricopa county. Evening outflow boundary
coming off the San Francisco Plateau had lost much of the driving
convective activity through the early overnight period and settled
into the Sun Valley. Recent VWP and surface observations noted a
slight uptick in southerly and southwesterly flow solidly
increasing convergence along the boundary. GOES SWIR, suggests
the leading edge may still be dropping south across SE Maricopa
toward northern Pinal, but in the core of the return southerly
flow strong ascent as seen tops cool to below -60C, tapping the a
remaining small pool of unstable mid-level air with MUCAPEs
analyzed around 1500-2000 J/kg per the RAP. VWP shows 10-15kts of
flow at 850mb/cloud providing the solid moisture flux into the
developing cells. CIRA LPW notes core of enhanced surface to
850mb moisture is further west than the 850-700mb axis; which
further tilts eastward across Pinal into central Gila county in
the 700-500mb layer; so peak influx is about across central
Maricopa into south-central Yavapai and with vertical totaling of
about 1.5" on 15kts should support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates.=20

Steering from 700 per VWP is weak and out of the west, but again
backs more southerly through the core of the cells but still about
5-10kts allowing for some tilting to keep the downdraft collapsing
on the updrafts, but also support slow cell motions to allow for
localized accumulation for a spot of 2" possible. Still,
short-term rates in proximity to hard desert soils or urban
centers will result in increased runoff and possibility for flash
flooding through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7FvvK56e6K5TSG1JdEfE87sCaF2F7JrDjPP55FhikLxbpuNCDcnYxkxbfcUbMapzkdcQ= cAqL9qrjBPKcaFXlKqMHvt0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35051277 34891219 34581182 34161146 33661093=20
33391088 33121126 33241210 33611265 34241306=20
34751312=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151717
FFGMPD
TXZ000-152315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0937
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151715Z - 152315Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally very heavy showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to produce some concerns
for mainly urban flash flooding across far southern TX.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows some uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity across far south TX near the Rio Grande River and around
the Brownsville metropolitan area. This is associated with the
poorly organized tropical disturbance (98L) seen approaching far
northeast MX and south TX.

There is a fair amount of mid-level vort energy associated with
this system, and this coupled with at least some locally focused
low-level moisture convergence and moderate instability should
yield an uptick and expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity going through the afternoon hours.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg are in place and this coupled
with very high PWs of 2.25 to 2.5 inches should yield at least
some concentrated convective cells with rainfall rates capable of
reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The hires model guidance overall is quite limited with the heavy
rainfall potential across far southern TX, but there have been
some increasingly wetter trends noted with the recent RRFS
guidance, with some potential for locally slow-moving
bands/clusters of convection impacting areas near and west of
Brownsville over the next few hours.

Given this and the recent radar and satellite trends, some spotty
rainfall totals of 3 to 5+ inches will be possible where the more
focused storms set up. While widespread flash flooding is not
expected, there may be localized urban flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4TRPF31fxLUTbLXNVZxHKpjf90EmIZkps6vWGVK8LLJLGTbpksIHZXsyxkH71kqD_v3S= zS4Xiniosd0osghOmBb3op4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27009837 26929771 26799732 26409704 25939706=20
25779745 25999837 26369892 26739885=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151733
FFGMPD
LAZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0938
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151730Z - 152230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms over south-central to
southeast LA may result in at least an isolated threat of flash
flooding going through the afternoon hours. This will include some
urban flash flooding concerns to the New Orleans metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates approaching 3 inches/hour will likely continue over
the next few hours across portions of south-central to southeast
LA.

A localized band of stronger low-level convergence combined with
strong instability characterized by MLCAPE values of near 3000
J/kg will support convective sustenance in the near-term with aid
also from localized outflow boundary collisions which will tend to
facilitate new convective development.

The latest hires model guidance, especially led by the RRFS
solutions, suggests some potential for 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals
by early this evening. These high rates and localized storm totals
may impact areas near or into the New Orleans metropolitan area
over the next few hours. Therefore, at least an isolated and
mainly urban flash flood threat will exist as this axis of heavier
showers and thunderstorms continues.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-bCYGL1cYWvcgZH6eSJjVzPr2MB5ysT6bxXQVeqmSTpGZfZRboQB1UoXrJYGkG_dzN1L= lQ0lGtc1R3Xe24_1eLSN31s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30709171 30489015 30088966 29568975 29349039=20
29769181 30219226=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151906
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0939
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...Southern UT...Much of AZ...Western and Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151904Z - 160100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms can be expected going through the afternoon hours.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible,
and especially given slow cell-motions and potential for impacts
around the more sensitive dry wash, burn scar and slot canyon
locations.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
three well-defined mid-level vort centers collectively embedded
within deeper layer south-southwesterly mid-level flow over AZ and
NM. The energy over the northern part AZ will be gradually
approaching areas of southern UT over the next few hours which
coupled with favorable orographics and an uptick in boundary layer
instability should help drive the development and expansion of
some shower and thunderstorm activity here.

However, the more notable threats for stronger convection will
likely be with the energy over southeast AZ and southwest NM where
there is already locally strong diurnal heating and presence of an
instability gradient/differential heating boundary that will help
facilitate convective initiation.

SBCAPE values over southeast AZ are locally over 1500 J/kg and
close to 1000 J/kg along the northern AZ/southern UT border. The
PWs are rather concentrated in the 500/700 mb layer based off the
CIRA-ALPW data, and especially over southeast AZ and into
west-central to southwest NM.

On a regional basis, there should be the development and expansion
of shower and thunderstorm activity that will be rather
slow-moving and locally anchored near areas of higher terrain.
More concentrated cells will be possible in close proximity to the
vort centers as they lift off to the north and northeast. This
convective evolution is supported by the latest hires WoFS
guidance.

Rainfall rates of up to 1 inch in as little as 20 to 30 minutes
will be possible. However, some localized storm total amounts of 2
to 3+ inches may occur given the slow cell-motions and
terrain-focused activity. Some of the hires CAM guidance led by
the NAM Conest, FV3 LAM and RRFS supports this.

This will drive isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding
potential which will mainly be focused on the dry wash, burn scar
and slot canyon locations where there are greater sensitivities
and concerns for enhanced runoff.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Q1S0K-RnM736tvhuutPocJgepsOULovU9Yitc0OtHMiCN5iD6Di2e1FRQ_RNmE0xLoq= gSgGBqg6-erfvWHJE4uqyBw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38381223 38251075 37660985 37060924 36410774=20
36040614 35350532 34380504 33280509 32460503=20
31800532 31430580 31300655 31210772 31040956=20
31221120 32011207 33351214 34561257 35731323=20
37601317=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151910
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0940
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...northern AL/GA into adjacent portions of TN/NC/SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151905Z - 160000Z

Summary...Increasing thunderstorm coverage into the late afternoon
with locally heavy rainfall (as high as 2-3"/hr rates) may result
in isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A distinct upper-level trough (most apparent above
400 mb, associated with a PV anomaly apparently originating from
cyclonic wave breaking) centered near the Midsouth is allowing for
greater coverage of convection into downstream portions of TN/AL.
The mesoscale environment is characterized by high tropospheric
moisture (1.7-2.1" PWs, at or above the 90th percentile per FFC
sounding climatology), effecitve bulk shear (25-30 kts, also at or
above 90th percentile), and plentiful instability (SBCAPE
2500-4500 J/kg). While the environment is lacking a surface
boundary or focusing mechanism to efficiently organize convection,
the increased coverage of cells alone will be sufficient to result
in cell mergers and outflow boundary collisions to result in
localized training/repeating of heavy rainfall rates (with as much
as 2-3"/hr with the strongest updrafts, as deep layer mean flow of
only 5-10 kts allows for longer residence times of assicated
downdrafts).

Hi-res CAMs are in relatively good agreement concerning both the
precise spatial overlap of heavier convection (per HREF EAS 0.5"
exceedance probs of 15-25% from east-central AL through northeast
GA into adjacent portions NC/SC) and chances for localized heavy
totals (40-km neighborhood 3" exceedance probs of 15-35%,
generally along and north of the highest EAS probs). 3-hr FFGs
across the region generally range from 2.0-3.0", suggesting
relatively high chances for localized FFG exceedance (HREF 40-km
probs for 3-hr FFG exceedance equating to 15-35% as well). Given
the overall favorable environment and recent observational trends,
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible
through dusk. While some convection may linger into the evening
hours, coverage and intensity should be diminishing overall with
the dry air/subsidence associated with the backside of the upper
trough ending heavy rainfall for northern/western portions (i.e.
AL/TN) of the MPD first.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7LFF506LU6Y4ZM3Y29zYooJXw8vlpISsn8eYKNcHiiZ-FbtuEOKGzRZwI9XeJD2GPxcO= Pef0tkOtvzQleUUW5Wtzoag$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36428474 36028423 35668359 35598242 35298191=20
34648208 33928253 33518282 33208322 33088357=20
32998420 33078483 33208536 33158588 33148642=20
33608692 34498655 35468649 35828557 36338516=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160245
FFGMPD
AZZ000-160730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0941
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1044 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...South-central to Southeast Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160245Z - 160730Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms to track slowly southwest
perhaps with short-term training/repeating resulting in localized
2"+ totals and possible localized flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Fading GOES-W Visible imagery loop shows two NW to SE
outflow boundary arcs across AZ, one up on the San Francisco
Plateau, the other through the Sonoran Desert into southeast AZ
and northeast Sonora, Mexico. GOES WV suite continues to depict a
deep long wave trof with slight negative tilt orientation across
Southern California with broadening diffluent region of
southwesterly flow across much of the Colorado River Basin into AZ
providing deep layer divergence across the region.=20

As sunset was approaching, increasing southerly flow off the Sea
of Cortez surged moisture through the surface to 850mb layer
across Mexico into south-central AZ. This increased moisture flux
convergence along the boundary providing solid isentropic ascent
to break out clusters of thunderstorms. The dominant reaching -70C
across southern Pima county. RADAR and EIR continues to show expansion/intensification within the cluster. RAP analysis
denotes that MUCAPE values remain around 2000-2500 J/kg,
especially further west to fuel these cells. LLJ of 25kts slowly
reduces along the eastern edge of the jet and propagation vectors
suggest slow southeastward evolution along the stalling outflow
boundary (though the boundary will likely kick southward with time
given cold pool generation). Surface Tds in the low to mid 60s
and total PWats through the lower cloud support PWat values near
1.5-1.75" and should support rates of 1.75"/hr, occasionally
ticking up to 2" where cores can merge for short duration.=20=20
Duration is likely to be 1-2 hours with similar rates, so
localized 1.5-2.5" totals are possible across south-central
Arizona and toward the Santa Cruz county border with Mexico. As
such, localized incidents of flash flooding will remain possible
through the early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7S_MaR-y33KOHbIuy4c0dLYta8rZ8c4IVyIuO3A1_RE6ZyVrwS4ykbm1t46q908Jp_-J= EB9quBP7Ee5rPttqbs-aWGw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32511194 32261127 31751065 31441001 31261001=20
31251064 31301126 31451163 31671225 31931252=20
32351247=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160311
FFGMPD
AZZ000-160830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0942
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...Western to Central Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160830Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective complex to slowly lift north,
intersect with older outflow boundary. Cells with rates of
1.5"/hr and slow motions may allow for localized 2"+ totals and
possible localized incidents of flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...Fading GOES-W Visible and 3.9m SWIR shows a pair of
outflow boundaries from earlier evening convective activity, both
extending arched from NNW to SE. The northern one remains along
or just off the Mogollon Rim across northern Arizona with a second
extending from east of Blythe across the Sonoran Desert southwest
of Phoenix toward Pima county. GOES-W WV suite along with GOES
AMVs show deep layer upper-level trough over Southern California
with a weak negative tilt as a subtle shortwave feature rolls
eastward into the Cochella Valley toward the Colorado River
Valley. This broad southwesterly flow is orthogonal to the
orientation of the outflow boundaries, so all convection has been
generally developing and back-shearing northeastward reducing
forward overall propagation (at least in the short-term period).=20

Recent stronger LLJ through out of the Sea of Cortez has surged north-northwestward across the Sonoran desert (using CIRA LPW and
RAP analysis) with 15-20kts, responding to the advancing shortwave
feature. Mid-level steeper lapse rates provide solid instability
for stronger/deeper thunderstorm activity along the the southern
boundary with MUCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg analyzed. The slug
of moisture is estimated per CIRA LPW and RAP to be around 1.5"
with most in the sub-700mb layer to allow for efficient warm cloud
processes for stronger cells.=20

Current 10.3um and RADAR mosaic show a few stronger clusters with
the broadest up/downdraft along the Mohave/La Paz county line just
east of the California border, as well as newer cells downstream
along the Yavapai border. Given instability and moisture flux
rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr are probable (along with some hail
generation). As the shortwave lifts northeast, deeper layer mean
southwesterly flow will allow for northeastward motions back
toward the western Mogollon Rim, perhaps intersecting with areas
affected earlier. Scattered incidents of 1.5" are probable, with
an few more isolated totals of 2-2.5" with higher probability
across Yavapai county per recent HRRR, WoFS and 00z Hi-Res CAM
solutions.

A few back-sheared convective columns can be seen north across E
Mohave with the northern boundary, but most of those are generally
weaker and widely scattered in coverage, but should still slowly
propagate southwest eventually intersecting/integrating with the
developing clusters moving northeast with the mean short-wave
ejection. Similarly, these intersections/mergers will pose the
greatest risk for flash flooding in the slopes of the Mogollon Rim
throughout the overnight period, resulting in possible widely
scattered incidents of flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_SuwBf_PKHENhYETvwNv97alIgQuN-ADZKRki_oRwhmMzJ2-VMY8bvA0tr3f6pQPE9e2= a9M0x3cwbw8pt7T2mnLiork$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36341314 35701240 35241150 34721133 34171142=20
33751208 33561283 33591383 33761407 34291410=20
35361417 35981373=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160650
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-161200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0943
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...South-central & Eastern SD...Southwest MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160650Z - 161200Z

SUMMARY...Very progressive squall QLCS will have strong moisture
flux for intense rainfall production with sub-hourly totals of
1.5-2"; though best risk for flash flooding will be flanking line
training for spots of 2-3" over hard/impermeable soils.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a compact 80kt 3H jet streak
across the North/South Dakota border which continues to strengthen
a compact shortwave within its broad right entrance region. 06z
Surface analysis shows an inverted wave inflection along the
strongest DPVA/divergent region within the southeast quadrant of
the wave across central SDak. A surface stationary front extends
east into west-central MN before angling north toward Duluth and
is directing strong and very moist low level flow to enhance very
strong moisture flux convergence. Additionally, steep lapse rates
with the very rich moisture at the surface in the mid to upper
70s, supports 4500-5000 J/kg and the combination is result in very
broad and strong updrafts across south-central SDAK at this time.=20
Numerous overshooting tops below -75 to -80C denotes the vigor of
the updraft including their width.=20=20

As noted, the surface Tds are well above normal and loading the
low-level profile to support over 2-2.25" total PWat values and
given the strength of the LLJ at 30-40kts, the lower cloud
moisture loading is fairly high, even though some will be lost to
hail production, there will be efficient rainfall production,
further increasing with time/maturity of the squall. So while the
limiting factor of forward speed/propagation for duration, the
broad downdrafts will allow for some overall sub-hourly totals of
1.5-2". Additionally, the strength of the bow is also supporting
a veering low level profile and tight anticyclonic rotor along the southwesterly flanking line. VWP and RAP analysis suggest that
flanking axis is likely to trail and has some solid angle toward
the initial bow/squall line to add an additional duration of heavy
rainfall. As such, an axis of enhanced totals of 2-3.5" in 2-3
hours is becoming increasingly probable across south-central into
eastern SDak and eventually into SW MN.

Hydrologically, the area has been in a solid drought and ground
conditions well below average running at about 10-25th percentiles
with 0-40cm at 10-25%. This makes the soils hard and reduce
infiltration particularly in the strength of the instantaneous
rates sub-hourly totals...with 03z HRRR solutions suggesting 15min
totals ranging from 1.5 to as high as 2", this suggests fairly
quick totals with little/no infiltration, increasing run off. As
such, localized flash flooding is considered possible, especially
if the flanking line repeats behind the initial line.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Vh8PTkf1F0MIOfoehoFF2Lew4lcse0AoUz4MXvZw3BLK6bC0oHDF6U3CZ4_I-m3HXcd= trvGEa8u2TMdIZfYq6fPTAo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...MPX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45669531 45439422 44779398 44209493 43689625=20
43229806 43040054 43190186 44050077 44769940=20
45279730=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161207
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-161805-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0944
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...Northeast SD...Central/Southern
MN...Western/Central WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161205Z - 161805Z

SUMMARY...A strong MCS will continue to advance off to the east
this morning across the Upper Midwest while fostering heavy
rainfall and at least an isolated threat for mainly urban flash
flooding going through midday.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
strong cold-topped MCS advancing across eastern SD and much of
central and southern MN. A well-defined MCV is embedded within the
convective mass, and this energy will be advancing east this
morning through portions of eastern MN and into western WI.

A very moist and unstable environment is in place which is being
aided by a 40 kt southwest low-level jet aiming up across
northwest IA and southwest MN. MUCAPE values are on the order of
2000 to 3000 J/kg over southern MN currently, and this is also
situated in close proximity to an area of low pressure and
well-defined frontal zone.

The low-level jet should tend to veer a bit more over the next
several hours, but should maintain a rather strong warm air
advection regime which coupled with the pool of instability should
favor a sustainable and well-organized axis of convection.

PWs are generally near or above 1.75 inches, and this coupled with
the instability should favor rainfall rates capable of reaching 2
inches/hour. The latest hires model guidance including the early
morning WoFS and HRRR solutions suggest downstream rainfall totals
along the path of the MCS reaching 2 to 4 inches. The 90th
percentile of the WoFS suggest some spotty 5 inch totals will be
possible.

These additional rains will be capable of yielding at least an
isolated threat for flash flooding over the next several hours
with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YkmdYBnF0dnXjaGbehXK8JPZ5LUh0QAPE2ig2Z_w4HKWciyUfU7OZKYIv_MYYGKF_rR= sjMlfZDHKGYTDBaT3cUPXWc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DLH...FGF...FSD...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46579428 46419158 45738887 44488841 43568901=20
43319043 43599255 43999448 44369655 45399735=20
46379655=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161703
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-162300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0945
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
102 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...Southern SC...Eastern GA...Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161702Z - 162300Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms can be
expected through this afternoon. Slow cell-motions and high
rainfall rates will pose a threat for isolated areas of flash
flooding, with the more urbanized areas at greatest risk for
impacts.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows a
small band of showers and thunderstorms settling south across
southern SC which is allowing for an outflow boundary to gradually
approach the SC/GA border. This convection is generally being
driven by nearby proximity of some weak vort energy. Meanwhile,
some subtle sea breeze convergence along the coast from SC down
through eastern GA is also helping to initiate a few areas of
slow-moving convection.

Over the next few hours, strong diurnal heating within a very
moist environment should aid the development and expansion of
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Already there are
MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg from the SC Lowcountry down
through northeast FL, and with multiple mesoscale boundary
interactions expected this afternoon, there should be some locally
concentrated areas of convection with high rainfall rates.

Some rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour will be possible with
the stronger storms. The activity should generally be pulse in
nature given the lack of deeper layer shear, but there will be
slow cell-motions and potential for cell-mergers that foster some
rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 5 inches. This is consistent
with a consensus of the recent HRRR solutions along with the
latest HREF and REFS guidance.

Some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through the
afternoon hours, and especially with some of the more urbanized
locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9bD8WYUrFX6s_kMlV8hKPqIC3b138GgMmM9j06oLNFFz-jmLR80Oe7VKjEubTq_vDFAM= mjCheKRII0QWKztz_nm8cmE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34068205 33658158 33278078 33247985 32727960=20
32288026 31658086 30678124 29458148 29348207=20
30028289 31618344 33378305=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162200
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-170300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0946
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...southern WI and north-central IL, as well as
surrounding portions of IA/IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162155Z - 170300Z

Summary...Very heavy downpours with 1-3" short-term rainfall
totals likely to result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A compact and potent mid-level shortwave trough is
translating rapidly east-southeast over the Upper Midwest this
afternoon, driving a classic series of mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) along the northern periphery of a blocked synoptic
scale ridge (centered due south over the Midsouth region).
Persistent convection has favored the ML CAPE gradient (500-4000
J/kg) over the past several hours, which has shifted southward
coincident with prior MCS outflow and the associated tightening
surface thetaE gradient. While some convection is still ongoing
from the earlier morning MCS into northeast IL (rapidly
approaching the Chicago metro with MRMS indicating very heavy
downpours with 15-min rainfall totals nearing 1.0"), a trailing
MCS (currently rapidly progressing through southern WI) is quickly
becoming the more dominate expansive MCS. The mesoscale
environment in the vicinity of theses MCSs is otherwise
characterized by anomalously high tropospheric moisture content
(PWs 1.6-2.0", at or above the 90th percentile per GRB/DVN
sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 25-50 kts.

While hi-res CAMs have certainly struggled with the precise
convective evolution that has occured (rather typical in these
highly dynamic, progressive MCS events), collectively analyzed
through the HREF (and associated post-processing including
time-lagged members) a valuable forward-looking signal for heavy
rainfall still emerges. The 18z HREF local probability-match mean
(LPMM) QPF suggests a period of localized 2-3"/3-hr associated
with backbuilding along the west/southwest flank of the MCS (with
new convective initiation occurring where low-level inflow and
iscentropic lift coincide with the highest instability). While the
HREF signal is likely too late/slow overall (as this is already
beginning to occur into southwest WI), 40-km neighborhood
exceedance probabilities for 2" exceedance range from 20-50%
(confined to southern WI, though in reality lower-end
probabilities for these amounts likely extend both upstream and
downstream of the dominate MCS, due to underestimated forward
propagation AND backbuilding by the CAMs overall). Although hourly
runs of the HRRR have not proven as useful as the HREF signal
(which also seems rather typical when the environment of the model initialization is mismatched with the observational assimilation),
the experimental WoFS does suggest that similar 2"+ localized
totals are possible (via an increasing trend in the 90th
percentile QPF with a 27-km neighborhood 2" exceedance probs in
the 20-40% range, notably displaced south and west of the HREF
signal).

While the greatest signal/risk for flash flooding is judged to be
across southern WI and northern IL, the MPD also encompasses areas
downstream (southeast into far northwest IN) and upstream (west
into adjacent portions of IA) due to the aforementioned forward
propagation and backbuilding threats. While these surrounding
areas are less likely to realize localized 2"+ totals, the chances
for 1"+ amounts (in as little as 15-30 min with very heavy
downpours) are likely (per HREF/WoFS exceedance probs of 40%+)
with associated 1-hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFGs) ranging from as
low as 1.0-1.5" across a substantial portion of the region. As a
result, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
considered likely (with conditional backbuilding of convection
largely dictating the overall coverage and potential for an
instance or two of more significant flash flooding).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85RfJsxpSa7tuBurkDXC0aMjTJ4xX4BGbQjCHnUmnpeHIkFvJK0rzeISwXDJQFMobfZF= OoSfOBvy97Tpn6fDKz9qf-I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43608890 43418789 42988769 42268726 41618674=20
40868651 40208687 39998789 40058882 40418974=20
40979028 41619055 42079078 42649143 42989143=20
43249113 43369075 43408979=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170334
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0947
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1134 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MN...Northeast IA...Southern
WI...Northern IL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170335Z - 170900Z

SUMMARY...Warm-advection thunderstorms with potential for training
and spots of 2-4" across areas of recent heavy rainfall/saturated
soils likely resulting in scattered incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows increased anticyclonic
curvature in upper-level cirrus pattern indicative of shortwave
ridging in the wake of the exiting shortwave across the Lower
Peninsula of Michigan. The associated surface front extends
through central Lake Michigan across southern WI into the northern
row of counties in IA; though the effective boundary due to strong
overturning from this evening's convection intersects the front
near near KPDC and angles southeastward across NE IL into just
north of KDNV. Deep layer moisture remains pooled along the
frontal zone with 1.75-2" Total Pwats across N IA/S MN before
broadening across S WI into northeast IL. LLJ response is a broad southwesterly 15-20kt flow along the entire front; so best
moisture convergence/isentropic ascent is at the intersection
remains along the intersection of the old outflow boundary and
surface front in NE IA/SW WI/NW IL. Upper-level right entrance to
the jet further enhances vertical ascent in proximity to the
front, also helping to sharpen the isentropes vertically
throughout the night. Efficient rainfall production given strong
convergence and unstable air with favorable evacuation aloft,
should support 1.5-2"/hr rates within the expanding cores.=20


GOES-E 10.3um shows strong cooling tops below -65C along the
orthogonal section of ascent, with upstream redevelopment and
increasing TCu noted across SE MN. With flanking development and
steering flow from NW to SE, a favorable training environment
setup may allow for increased duration and localized 2-4" totals
are likely especially from SE MN and SW WI, as potential for
further upstream development is likely throughout the overnight
period as well, and as such an isolated spot over 5" is not out of
the realm of possibility.=20

To compound issues, the area has seen recent heavy rainfall and
the upper soil conditions remain relatively saturated with 0-40cm
ratios well over 50 with spots near 70% across MN, WI (above 90th
percentile) before reducing to below 40% over Chicagoland into NW
IND per NASA SPoRT LIS product(though tonight's rain, likely
improved those values. As such, infiltation may be a bit more
difficult and increased runoff is likely to result in scattered
incidents of flash flooding overnight tonight.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4XD5kfk4Uj5z4YB_V5dUsJJ-ohvachmPL8OrbNcd2VWkaq4KXlEBEZC03tNWaNyt83pI= qJgYtt6d7ZR79bcGiDWcutM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44199254 44149159 43789046 43278856 42758764=20
41828746 41288783 41278892 41989046 42729175=20
43359272 43649301 44039293=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170532
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-171100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0948
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...Northwest South Dakota...South-central North
Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170530Z - 171100Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective clusters with potential
repeating/merging elements. Rates of 1.75-2"/hr and localized
2-3" totals pose localized possible incidents of flash flooding
overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows an elongated north to south
shortwave feature along the eastern edge of larger scale trough in
the Northern Rockies, lifting northeastward out of northwest SD
into southwest ND continuing to be enhanced by broad right
entrance of 300mb 50kt jet entrance along its northwest quadrant.
This is supporting a strong surface to low level wind response,
further confluent/convergent along and north of the Black Hills
across W SD. 05z surface analysis shows stationary front along
the SD/NEB border with Tds in the low to upper 70s throughout the
SD fluxed on solid, weakly confluent easterly flow. The bulk of
the moisture resides north of the surface front, though 850-700mb
moisture flux convergence is further increased deep layer flux
given directional confluence from southerly to southeasterly along
the southern flank of the elongated shortwave trough north of the
Black Hills. As such, Total PWat values have increased from 1.75
along the convergence axis. As such, strong clusters continue to
expand and merge with pre-cursory convergence axes across
northwest SD; noted in the RADAR mosaic and expanding/cooling
10.3um IR canopy tops. Ample mid-level lapse rates and higher
theta-E air support CAPEs over 2000 J/kg which further increase
within the upstream inflow region north of the frontal zone. As
such, cells are already becoming rather efficient in rainfall
production with rates of 1.75-2"/hr noted throughout the expanding clusters.=20=20

As the trough is lifting, differential shear within the steering
profile (as the elongated trough lifts north) is helping to orient
cell motions toward a repeating/short-term training profile, which
is expected to become further convergent as the wave is reaching
the apex of the synoptic ridging over south-central ND. As a
result, an axis of 2-3"+ totals are likely to expand toward a
larger cluster toward the central common border of the Dakotas
over the next 3-5hrs. The rates alone are near/just above the
1-1.75"/hr FFG values in all but a few scattered locations within
the area of concern and localized areas are probable to exceed the
2-2.5"/3hr values, suggesting flash flooding is possible through
the overnight period. And while the top layers have been in
prolonged drought with 0-40cm saturation ratio below 25%, the
sheer rate on hard soils will further limit infiltration and
result in increased runoff.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9A1tL6ALpcWkq0Q1jTWNfI1ulZQ3PVJDOTEd9YVG12RiO_Knvvl5ztfrimIZYxeLqCwP= DZ3lb1GNFPxlCSsBYCu2rCQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46850021 46699900 46299858 45569891 45059981=20
44620088 44070304 44470377 45150381 45670352=20
46030294 46550185=20

=3D =3D =3D
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