ACUS03 KWNS 040717
SWODY3
SPC AC 040716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be
possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday.

...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the
central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist
airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi
Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate
instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass.
Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave
trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of
the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may
develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing
boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe
gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain
localized.

..Broyles.. 08/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041820
SWODY3
SPC AC 041819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF IOWA
AND NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be
possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning across
parts of MN/IA. These storms may be strong with gusty winds and
hail through the morning before weakening. In the wake of morning
activity, strong destabilization will occur across the eastern
Dakotas, western MN, and central NE. However, large-scale upper
ridging and height rises will also be occurring in this region, with
limited forcing mechanisms for afternoon re-development of storms.
Given the inherent uncertainties at this time range, and the
favorable conditional environment, will maintain MRGL risk for now
and re-evaluate in later updates.

..Hart.. 08/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050730
SWODY3
SPC AC 050729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the
northern Rockies.

...Northern Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across
the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top
of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern
Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi
Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development
is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western
Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow
capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast
soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection
could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for
isolated severe gusts and hail.

...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest
on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over
the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be
from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms
will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated
convection expected along an axis of instability across central
Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of
instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg),
with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined
with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an
isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible.

..Broyles.. 08/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051928
SWODY3
SPC AC 051927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into
Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large
hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur.

...Northern Great Plains...
While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential
exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late
afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the
Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs
southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer
will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread
convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich
boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas
to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy
by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening.
Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced
buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an
intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate
late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening
baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along
a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND,
and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night.
Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the
level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial
supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the
downstream cluster/MCS phase.

...Upper Midwest...
Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the
northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central
states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of
D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm
development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI.
More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley
low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in
the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe
intensities are anticipated.

..Grams.. 08/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060731
SWODY3
SPC AC 060730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are likely on
Friday across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi
Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible.

...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough will progress eastward into the northern High
Plains on Friday, as an associated speed max moves over the northern
Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the central Plains,
as a cold front advances eastward the north-central states. Ahead of
the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the
central Dakotas eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley. A
pronounced axis of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from northeastern South Dakota into far eastern North Dakota.
Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along an
instability gradient located just ahead of the front during the mid
to late afternoon. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will
move eastward across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota from late
afternoon into the evening.

At 21Z on Friday, forecast soundings near the axis of instability
have an impressive thermodynamic environment. To the west of Fargo,
North Dakota, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4500 to 6000 J/kg
range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. In
addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range,
suggesting supercells with large hail will be likely. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger
cores. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast reach
the 200 to 275 m2/s2 range by late afternoon, suggesting that a
tornado threat could develop. The potential for severe gusts is
expected to increase in the early evening, as a cluster or broken
line of strong to severe storms moves eastward across the region.

Further south into southeastern South Dakota and northeastern
Nebraska, cell coverage is forecast to be more isolated due to a
capping inversion that is evident on forecast soundings. In spite of
the cap, low-level convergence is forecast to become strong just
ahead of the front. This should be enough for convective initiation
during the evening. The environment along this part of the front
will likely support large hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat
should be more isolated with southward extent.

..Broyles.. 08/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061928
SWODY3
SPC AC 061927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the
northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon
into the night on Friday.

...North-Central States...
A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low
confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of
multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end
severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This
front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across
eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and
strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the
northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs
impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout
anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated
convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills.

Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should
yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River
Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley
vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the
front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal
aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the
deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a
mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells
should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development
along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe
hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday
evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a
lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass.

..Grams.. 08/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070728
SWODY3
SPC AC 070727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible on Saturday
from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, with the greatest
threat concentrated from northeastern Iowa into central and
northeastern Wisconsin.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on
Saturday, as cyclonically curved southwesterly flow remains over the
Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into Iowa, Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate and potentially
strong instability is forecast ahead of the front. Increasing
low-level convergence ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorms by afternoon. A more persistent convective complex
could persist from late afternoon into the evening, with this
cluster projected to move east-southeastward across southern
Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa during the early evening. Along this
track, MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range. In
addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, and
moderate deep-layer shear should be in place. This should be enough
for severe storm development. Damaging wind gusts will be possible
with the more intense line segments. Hail could also occur.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of
the southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains. Near
the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F will
contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Within this
airmass, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. However,
isolated convective initiation will be possible along parts of the
front as low-level convergence becomes maximized. Due to steep low
to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear, an
isolated severe threat could develop. A few severe gusts and hail
will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071930
SWODY3
SPC AC 071929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA
TO NORTHEAST WI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday
night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and
across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more
concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to
northeast Wisconsin.

...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley...
Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to
expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low
on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM
guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The
convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward
progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls.
The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should
remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced
cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should
generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as
diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The
trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a
focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level
jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated
severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night.

...Central/southern High Plains...
A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary
over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3.
Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for
sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More
organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal
regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast
CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled
trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This
could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have
expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on
whether more than weak buoyancy will be present.

..Grams.. 08/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080723
SWODY3
SPC AC 080723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur on Sunday from eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri and perhaps central Illinois.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Sunday, an upper trough will eject northeastward across Ontario,
with a weak/broad upper trough across the central and northern
Plains. This wave will maintain cool midlevel temperatures as far
south as KS/MO/IL, where a belt of stronger 30+ kt midlevel flow
will exist.

At the surface, a weak front will stretch roughly from the upper
Great Lakes into parts of KS and OK, with a moist air mass remaining
ahead of it. Daytime heating will yield 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE along this
same zone by afternoon.

Southerly winds in the low levels will maintain a degree of warm
advection near this front, especially from eastern KS across MO and
into IL where early-day storms with outflows may exist. This makes
placing the actual threat area more uncertain. However, substantial instability, despite weak shear, should result in a few clusters or
lines of propagating storms producing locally strong to severe gusts
near the Marginal Risk area.

..Jewell.. 08/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081927
SWODY3
SPC AC 081925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the south-central
High Plains to the central Great Lakes, mainly Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...South-central High Plains to the central Great Lakes...
Low severe probabilities are evident on Sunday across a large swath
of the central states along the effective baroclinic zone which will
be modulated by overnight convective regimes. These should be in a
decaying state, centered over the central High Plains and from the
Lower MO Valley to the Lake MI vicinity. Diurnal destabilization in
the wake of morning activity, especially pronounced to the south of
remnant convective outflows, should foster ample buoyancy in a swath
from the lee of the southern Rockies towards IN/Lower MI.

Low-amplitude mid-level troughing should persist across the
south-central High Plains, despite progged dampening of an embedded
shortwave impulse that should cross the southern Rockies early
Sunday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for supercells in
eastern CO and the Raton Mesa vicinity, supportive of isolated large
hail and severe gusts. Progressively weaker deep-layer shear is
expected with southern/eastern extent owing to a persistent
mid-level ridge from the southern High Plains to the Lower Great
Lakes. But with signals for fairly extensive afternoon to evening
storm coverage along the baroclinic zone, several clusters of mainly
weakly organized convection seem plausible. This should support a
primary threat of strong to localized severe gusts from KS to MI.

..Grams.. 08/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090734
SWODY3
SPC AC 090732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Monday.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a weak upper trough will remain over the central US, but
winds aloft are forecast to dwindle as a primary midlevel wave
sweeps across the northern Plains to upper Great Lakes. A weak
surface trough may remain from the southern Plains into the lower MO
Valley, but lift here will remain subtle. Overall, a moist and
unstable air mass will still exist, but the lack of large-scale
ascent and weakening lapse rates aloft is expected to mitigate
severe storm potential.

That said, a corridor of strong storms is most likely during the afternoon/early evening from parts of West TX across OK, eastern KS,
MO and IL, with areas of gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091915
SWODY3
SPC AC 091914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible across
the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing is likely to persist
across the interior U.S., between larger-scale mean ridging centered
offshore of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated surface
frontal zone, reinforced by convective outflow in some locations,
most likely across parts of the southern Great Plains by early
Monday, could remain a possible focus for stronger potential
destabilization and renewed convective development later Monday into
Monday night. However, guidance generally indicates that this
boundary will tend to become more diffuse through the period,
beneath weak/weakly sheared deep-layer mean flow. Isolated to,
perhaps, widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk
for severe weather may not be entirely out of the question, but
support for this will most likely depend of sub-synoptic
developments with low predictability at this time frame.

While the westerlies remain largely confined to the higher latitudes
through this period, a significant short wave trough is forecast to
continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the
international border vicinity to the west of the upper Great Lakes.
It currently appears that mid-level forcing for ascent and shear
could become conditionally supportive of organized strong to severe thunderstorm development south of the international border by early
Monday evening. However, it is not yet clear that low-level
moisture return and cooling aloft, ahead of an associated cold
front, will contribute to sufficient destabilization.

..Kerr.. 08/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100721
SWODY3
SPC AC 100720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move out of the upper MS Valley and into the
Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a weak/residual midlevel trough
over the central Plains. A weakening cold front attendant to the
northern trough will push south across MN, WI and IA late with
drying as the surface low pulls well north of the area. Otherwise, a
weak surface pattern will exist from the Plains to the East Coast,
but with a persistently moist air mass.

Scattered thunderstorms appear most likely from IN southwestward
into OK, however, shear will remain weak across the entire area, and
lapse rates aloft will not be very steep. As such, mostly general
thunderstorms are expected.

..Jewell.. 08/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101928
SWODY3
SPC AC 101927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great
Lakes region Tuesday. While the risk for severe weather still
appears low, locally strong gusts and hail might still be possible.

...Discussion...
An initially prominent mid-level high centered offshore of the
Pacific Northwest is forecast to become suppressed
west-southwestward across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific
during this period, as a consolidating short wave trough digs near
the Canadian Rockies. As downstream flow trends more zonal, it
appears that a pair of short wave perturbations will consolidate
into a larger-scale short wave trough across northern Ontario into
Quebec by late Tuesday night. This evolution may include a lead
perturbation continuing to dig across parts of the upper Midwest and
adjacent Great Lakes region, before pivoting east/northeast of the
Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, in advance of a trailing impulse
digging south of Hudson Bay. More uncertain, due to greater model
spread, the lead short wave may be preceded across the Lower
Michigan vicinity by an increasingly sheared, convectively generated perturbation emerging from the central Great Plains.

The evolution of this regime is forecast to include an initial
intrusion of somewhat cooler/drier air, which may maintain identity
while advancing across the Great Lakes region, Midwest and lower
Missouri Valley, before being overtaken by a more substantive
reinforcing cool intrusion across the Great Lakes by late Tuesday
night. Both fronts will be preceded by the increasingly diffuse
remnants of a slow moving or stalled surface frontal zone extending
from the lower Great Lakes into the southern Great Plains, and
boundary layer moistening/destabilization ahead of the lead front
advancing across Upper Michigan and Wisconsin by late Tuesday
afternoon remains a bit unclear.

Barring complications from lingering convective cloud
cover/precipitation associated with the possible MCV emerging from
the Great Plains, it might not be out of the question that the
environment in a corridor along/ahead of the front could become
supportive of organized thunderstorms with potential to produce
strong wind gusts and hail. Depending on the strength of the MCV,
which remains unclear due to model spread, wind fields may
strengthen sufficiently to support at least some risk for organized strong/severe thunderstorm development across Lower Michigan, where
stronger pre-frontal destabilization appears most probable.

If/when these uncertainties become better resolved, it is possible
that severe probabilities in excess of 5 percent, or higher, will be
needed across parts of the Great Lakes region in later outlooks for
this period.

..Kerr.. 08/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110714
SWODY3
SPC AC 110713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late
Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday
with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge
over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over
the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave.
West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High
Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly
winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this
pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing.

Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by
late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near
the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with
over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few
cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An
increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also
yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well.

..Jewell.. 08/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111928
SWODY3
SPC AC 111927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied
by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of
central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the stronger westerlies will remain confined to
the northern mid-latitudes, mostly to the north of the Canadian/U.S.
border through this period. One significant embedded short wave
trough shifting across Ontario through Quebec may become sheared
while becoming absorbed within an increasingly confluent regime,
preceded in lower latitudes by northeastward accelerating mid-level
troughing offshore of the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, another
significant short wave perturbation, initially digging near the
Canadian Rockies, is forecast to turn eastward across the Canadian
Prairies and provide support for significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis across southern Alberta through central/northern
Saskatchewan by late Wednesday night. In lower latitudes ahead of
this feature, there appears a consensus among latest model output
that a much more subtle perturbation will dig east-southeast of the
northern U.S. Rockies late Wednesday through Wednesday night, within
weaker flow on the northern periphery of modest mid-level ridging.

...Northern Great Plains...
The NAM, with support from other model output, including the latest
ECMWF, depicts the evolution of a notable convective perturbation
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night across the central/eastern
South Dakota vicinity. This appears focused where
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become enhanced, near the
leading edge of a plume of warm, elevated mixed layer air advecting
eastward across the middle Missouri Valley, supported by a
strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. Low-level moisture return to
the vicinity of deepening lee surface troughing may be seasonably
modest, but it still appears that sizable CAPE may develop across
parts of central South Dakota by late afternoon, near the nose of a
corridor of seasonably strong boundary-layer heating and deep
mixing, south through east of the Black Hills.

It remains unclear whether stronger convective development will
initiate from late afternoon high-based thunderstorm development
near/north of the Black Hills, or perhaps an initial supercell
forming near a focused area of low-level convergence across central
South Dakota. However, large-scale forcing for ascent probably will
lead to upscale growing convection by Wednesday evening, in an
environment conducive to a few strong downbursts, and a
consolidating, strengthening surface cold pool with potential to
produce a swath of strong to severe gusts. It is possible that
severe probabilities may still need to be increased further in later
outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 08/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120708
SWODY3
SPC AC 120708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from
eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and
evening.

...Discussion...
On Thursday, a shortwave trough will continue eastward into the
northern Plains during the day, with primary upper low well north
into Canada. The southern periphery of this wave will move across ND
and northern MN late day and overnight, with cooling aloft and
increasing midlevel winds of 40-50 kt.

At the surface, a cold front will be located from eastern ND into
western SD during the afternoon, and will move into northern MN
overnight. Southwest winds will bring moisture northward ahead of
the front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of
40-50 kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and
low-level jet increases. Storms are most likely to form around 00Z
along the deeper cold front over eastern ND, and progress across
northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as storm
mode should be cellular. Strong heating into central SD may also
yield isolated cells a bit farther south than forecast by many
models, also with large hail threat.

..Jewell.. 08/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121927
SWODY3
SPC AC 121926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from
eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central Alberta/Saskatchewan early Thursday morning before then continuing
gradually eastward and ending the period over the central
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border vicinity. Extensive surface troughing
will precede this system, likely extending from central Saskatchewan
into the central High Plains early Thursday. Primary surface low
associated with this system is forecast to occlude over central
Saskatchewan while a secondary low develops over southern Manitoba
and moves eastward/northeastward into far northwestern Ontario.

As the secondary surface low moves east, an attendant cold front is
expected to move eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas and
western MN. A very moist airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the
upper 60s/low 70s, will precede this front. This low-level moisture
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in very strong
buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE). Despite ample low-level moisture,
substantial capping will likely persist across much of the northern
Plains given the very warm low/mid-level temperatures (on the order
20 to 25 deg C at 850 mb). Forcing along the front should be strong
enough to overcome this capping across eastern ND, with uncertainty
regarding storm development and coverage increasing with southern
extent across SD. The strong buoyancy and moderate vertical shear
will support large to potentially very large hail with the initially
more cellular storms. Warm and dry low to mid-levels suggest strong
downdrafts are possible with mature storms as well. Upscale growth
is uncertain given the prevailing capping and more limited buoyancy
downstream into MN.

..Mosier.. 08/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130731
SWODY3
SPC AC 130730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms might occur over parts of the
northern Plains on Friday.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will move eastward toward Ontario and Hudson Bay on
Friday, with an upper high building over the central Plains.
Moderate westerlies aloft over the northern Plains will persist well
south of the upper trough, though gradual warming is forecast.
Meanwhile, a weak midlevel trough should remain over pats of the
Great Basin, providing cool temperatures aloft.

At the surface, a cold front will push eastward across northern MN
and into SD, and will likely decelerate as the upper wave moves
farther away. A surface low/trough will extend from southeast MT
across western SD and NE during the afternoon, with backed surface
winds maintaining low-level moisture across the mid MO Valley and
toward the Black Hills.

Although large-scale ascent will be minimal given the upper ridging,
strong heating over the high Plains will yield isolated high-based
storms initially. Some storms may pose a wind and hail risk from the
Black Hills region eastward near the stalled frontal zone.
Predictability is fairly low for potential farther east toward
MN/IA, however, the air mass will remain unstable, and persistent
low-level warm advection could fuel an MCS with gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 08/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 132053
SWODY3
SPC AC 132052

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.

...Discussion...
An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights
across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present
somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline
extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front
across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern
Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe
storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with
rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along
the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level
lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability
supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to
portions of northern Minnesota.

Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale
forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early
evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is
forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated
storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear
and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm
risk.

The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for
strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an
ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak
large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems
appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support
higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of
higher storm coverage appears likely.

..Bentley.. 08/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140724
SWODY3
SPC AC 140723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills
eastward to Wisconsin.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the
upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant
over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along
and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch
roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of
thunderstorms through the period.

Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI,
where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal
zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts.

Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal
of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable,
deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm
modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact
corridor for isolated severe at this time.

Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills
and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the
evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail
or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall
focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later
updates.

..Jewell.. 08/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141928
SWODY3
SPC AC 141927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Saturday
from the central/northern Plains to Lower Michigan.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning along a frontal zone
from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes. The location
and strength of this morning convection will have significant
impacts on more focused zones of severe weather threat on Saturday.
A MCS may be ongoing across Wisconsin/northern Illinois/western
Michigan on Saturday morning. This MCS or a remnant MCV in its wake,
may provide a focus for severe storms across Lower Michigan Saturday
afternoon. In addition, a MCS may be ongoing across eastern South
Dakota and southwest Minnesota on the nose of the low-level jet. If
the environment downstream of this MCS can destabilize during the
morning, a severe weather threat may materialize as this MCS moves
east along the front. If neither of these solutions occur, the
severe weather threat may be somewhat more isolated. However, very
strong to extreme instability is expected along the frontal zone
with sufficient shear for some storm organization.

Strong heating in the Plains may result in a few isolated high-based
storms from central Nebraska to western South Dakota and potentially
into far southwest Montana with a primary severe wind threat during
the afternoon/early evening.

Convection is expected along most of the frontal zone from eastern
South Dakota to Michigan Saturday night as the low-level jet
strengthens and height falls overspread the region. Isolated large
hail is possible from these storms.

..Bentley.. 08/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150712
SWODY3
SPC AC 150711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains and
upper Mississippi Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A subtle mid-level ridge is forecast to move from the upper
Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes region on Sunday, as
mid-level flow remains west-southwesterly over the northern Plains.
At the surface, a front is forecast to remain in place from Nebraska
into Iowa. To the north of the boundary, easterly flow is forecast
over much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Near
the front, moderate instability is likely to develop by afternoon,
and localized pockets of strong instability will be possible. As
temperatures peak in the mid to late afternoon, convective
initiation is expected to take place in the vicinity of the front
where low-level convergence will be maximized. Although lapse rates
will be steep, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are both
forecast to be relatively weak near the front. For this reason, any
severe threat that develops should remain isolated and marginal.
Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160715
SWODY3
SPC AC 160714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the
southwestern Great Lakes.

...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across
much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly
mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights
rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass
will likely be in place across parts of central and northern
Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the
southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability
is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into
the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along
this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are
forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a
marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail.

..Broyles.. 08/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161923
SWODY3
SPC AC 161921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE CORN BELT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Corn
Belt and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening on Monday.

...Corn Belt to the northern Great Plains...
Large-scale pattern will feature retrogression of the mid/upper
anticyclone from the southern Great Plains into the Southwest. An
MCV should amplify as a result of D2 MCS development and act as a
low-amplitude shortwave impulse drifting across the Upper Great
Lakes. Ridging will build north towards the northern High Plains by
early Tuesday. This evolution will yield a generally modest zonal
mid-level flow regime over the North-Central States on Monday.

Extensive but decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday
from the Lake Superior/Upper MS Valley into IA and perhaps the Lower
MO Valley. Pockets of stronger boundary-layer heating will be
necessary for diurnal intensification with weaker mid-level lapse
rates relative to prior days. Confidence is low in just how unstable
the airmass will be in WI/IL on Monday afternoon. Still, will
maintain a level 1-MRGL with a risk for isolated damaging winds.

Farther west, steep mid-level lapse rates will foster moderate to
large buoyancy from NE into eastern MT/western ND. Guidance has
varying signals for widely scattered convective development, but it
appears most probable over the central High Plains and Black Hills
during the late afternoon and evening. Coverage is more nebulous in
MT/ND as mid/upper ridging gradually builds, but deep-layer shear
will be greater compared to farther south. A broad swath of
low-probability severe remains appropriate with a mix of wind and
hail possible.

..Grams.. 08/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170723
SWODY3
SPC AC 170722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the central Rockies and
northern High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a post-frontal
airmass will likely be located across the upper Mississippi Valley.
Along the southern and western periphery of the post-frontal
airmass, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon
from parts of the central Plains eastward into the lower Ohio
Valley. Near the instability axis, a convective cluster appears
likely over part of Kansas Tuesday afternoon. The storms are not
expected to be severe due to weak deep-layer shear and limited
large-scale ascent. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop over
parts of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys in the
afternoon. These storms are also not expected to be severe for
similar reasons.
...Synopsis...

..Broyles.. 08/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171928
SWODY3
SPC AC 171927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for organized severe weather is expected to remain low on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge will continue to amplify across the Rockies
and into parts of the Plains on Tuesday. A low amplitude trough will
persist in the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a
cold front will continue southward through the central Plains into
the southern Plains.

Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely develop to the south and
west of the surface boundary. However, mid-level flow and effective
shear will be rather weak. In general, given weak overall forcing,
isolated to widely scattered storms are expected. Some of these
storms could be stronger and produce strong wind gusts.
Predictability of where this will occur is too low to warrant severe probabilities.

Modestly moist upslope flow into the Front Range could promote
isolated storm development. Shear should be somewhat stronger in
eastern Colorado. Confidence in storm coverage (given the
intensifying ridge aloft) and storms being able to move off the
terrain remains low, however.

..Wendt.. 08/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180714
SWODY3
SPC AC 180713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on
Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the
Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge
moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the
nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated
over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest
convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern
Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday
afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale
ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be
favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is
expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective
potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard.
Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the
continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181931
SWODY3
SPC AC 181930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ND
AND FAR NORTHEAST MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening/night
across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana.

...Northern ND and far northeast MT...
A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress across the
Northwest on Wednesday into the northern High Plains and southern
Canadian Prairies Wednesday night. This should be accompanied by an
initially pronounced upper-level jet streak that should weaken late
as it impinges on the northern Great Plains ridge. Stronger
large-scale ascent may largely remain north of the international
border until early morning Thursday. NCEP guidance suggests
convection will be sparse before this timeframe with appreciable
MLCIN. Non-NCEP guidance suggests potential for evening storms along
the surface trough/developing front. Consensus indicates a confined low-probability severe hail/wind threat is warranted, with spatial
details becoming likely to become clearer in later cycles.

...NC Outer Banks...
12Z guidance continues a westward trend to the track of Hurricane
Erin. As NHC noted a larger-than-average surrounding wind field, low-probability tornado potential may overspread the Outer Banks as
early as Wednesday evening with potential for outer convective band
formation. However, adequate low-level SRH/hodograph curvature for a
tornado risk seems likely to be displaced until Wednesday night. Any
earlier arrival/farther westward track could warrant a level 1-MRGL
risk highlight in later cycles.

...South-Central States...
A somewhat similar setup to D2 will be displaced southward on D3
with scattered to numerous pulse-type storms expected during the
afternoon to early evening. However, the convectively modified
surface cold front should become more nebulous and mid-level
northerlies will remain weak. In addition, the buoyancy plume should
have variable pockets of weak to strong MLCAPE, especially in the
wake of extensive convection on D2. Will defer to later cycles for
possible microburst/localized damaging wind highlight(s).

..Grams.. 08/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190716
SWODY3
SPC AC 190715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the
northern Plains on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across
Saskatchewan on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward
into the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a north-to-south axis
of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon across parts of the
eastern South Dakotas. During the late afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the front, from
far northwestern Minnesota into the eastern South Dakota. NAM
forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear mostly in the 35 to 45 knot range. This is due to directional
shear in the boundary-layer and westerly flow in the mid-levels.
This could support a potential for supercells, if modes end up as
discrete. Supercells would be capable of hail and isolated severe
gusts. There is some uncertainty as to the location of the maximum
threat, which will depend on the timing of the front and
distribution of low-level moisture and instability. An upgrade in
category could be necessary if the models continue to show a more
favorable scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191901
SWODY3
SPC AC 191900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the
eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and
hail possible.

...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota...

An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the
Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level
westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops
east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a
somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place,
supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent
with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the
evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during
the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this
activity.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200728
SWODY3
SPC AC 200727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from
parts of the central and northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

...Northern Great Lakes to the Central High Plains...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to dig
southeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday. A surface low is forecast to
move across northwest Ontario, as a trailing cold front continues
southeastward across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
A secondary cold front is forecast to move across the northern
Plains and northern MN, with a much drier airmass expected behind
this secondary front.

As the mid/upper-level trough digs into the region during the
afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered storm
development will be possible from Upper MI into parts of
WI/IA/southeast MN and eastern NE. Relatively weak midlevel lapse
rates may tend to limit updraft intensity to some extent, but
moderate MLCAPE and 25-35 kt of effective shear within the
west-northwesterly flow regime may support some storm organization,
with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

Farther west, strong to locally severe storms may develop within a
post-frontal regime across parts of eastern WY/CO and the NE
Panhandle. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates could support
isolated hail with the strongest storms, with localized strong gusts
also possible.

...Arizona...
Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of AZ on
Friday, within a similar regime to D2/Thursday. Locally gusty winds
will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some
potential for outflows to spread into the lower elevations. Trends
will be monitored regarding the potential for a greater coverage of
damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 08/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201921
SWODY3
SPC AC 201920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from
parts of the central and northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

...Northern/Central High Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper cyclone over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough
will develop southeast across portions of the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday. At the surface, a
cold front will develop south/southeast across the region. A
seasonally moist airmass will be in place near and ahead of the
front. A narrow corridor of 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast ahead
of the front from the WY/CO High Plains eastward across parts of NE
and northeast into southern MN and northern/central WI.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon across portions of WI/MN and the U.P. of MI.
closer to the surface low over Ontario. Vertical shear is expected
to remain modest, with stronger shear likely trailing the cold
front. Nevertheless, steepened low-level lapse rates where stronger
heating occurs could support sporadic strong to severe gusts.

Additional storms are expected to develop in the post-frontal
upslope regime across parts of eastern WY and northeast CO during
the late afternoon/evening. This activity may eventually become a
forward propagating cluster across NE during the nighttime hours as
the surface cold front develops southward toward the KS border.
Forecast soundings indicated sufficient deep shear and
elongated/straight hodographs will be present amid steep midlevel
lapse rates. Isolated large hail may be possible initially, with an
increasing chance for isolated damaging gusts if sufficient
clustering can occur further east into NE and vicinity.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2025

$$

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