011
AXNT20 KNHC 040905
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1032 mb located north of the near Bermuda and the
Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to near gale trades
across the Caribbean through Sat afternoon. The winds should reach
gale force overnight just north of Colombia, with seas building
to 13 or 14 ft.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the
north- central Atlantic will move into the discussion waters south
of 31N late Sat and reach from 31N40W to 29N55W by Sat evening.
SW winds to gale force are likely within 90 nm ahead of the front
north of 28N. Winds will diminish to below gale force by Sun
morning as the front shifts southward. Looking ahead, even though
the winds may gradually diminish, the front will be followed by
large to very large NW swell that will envelop most of the
Atlantic east of 60W through the middle of next week.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning issued by Meteo-
France remains in effect for the marine zone of Madeira through
05/00Z. The forecast calls for westerly winds at times 8 force of
the Beaufort Wind Scale. Very rough seas are expected within
these winds. These marine conditions are associated with a 990 mb
low pressure off Portugal. For more details, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 .

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 05N09W and extends southwestward to 03N12W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N12W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 06N between
15W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SE winds are noted across the basin between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and 1000 mb low pressure over
west Texas. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over the western Gulf, and 5 to 7
ft over the eastern Gulf except for up to 8 ft in the Straits of
Florida. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident at
this time. However, platform observations are showing visibility
as low as 1 1/2 miles in sea fog across the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and low pressure over N Mexico/Texas will continue forcing
fresh to near gale SE winds across the basin through Sat
afternoon. The moist SE flow may allow areas of sea fog to persist
across the northern Gulf into Sat. A strong late- season cold
front will emerge off of the Texas coast Sat evening. Fresh to
near gale N winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front
over the western Gulf Sun and Mon with northerly gales possible
near Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz by late Sun
afternoon. The cold front will extend from the Florida panhandle
to the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N
winds. Looking ahead, the front will weaken as it moves southeast
of the area Tue followed by weak high pressure over the northern
Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish accordingly through Tue night
in all but the far southeast Gulf where fresh winds and rough seas
may persist.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please refer
to the Special Features section for more details.

Recent scatterometer satellite data confirms fresh to strong
trade winds across much of the basin, with winds near gale force
occurring in the central Caribbean and also offshore NW Colombia.
Concurrent altimeter satellite data shows seas are 8 to 12 ft
over the central and eastern Caribbean. Strong to near-gale force
winds are also observed across the Gulf of Honduras, and extend as
far north as the southern coast of Quintana Roo. Seas are likely 7
to 9 ft in this area. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the
basin. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving
westward across the region producing isolated passing showers
primarily into the Leeward and Windward Islands.

For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient from the Bermuda High to
the Colombian Low will continue to produce fresh to near-gale
force trade winds across the Caribbean through Sat afternoon.
From Sat night through early next week, the Bermuda High weakens
contributing toward reduced winds over the basin. However, strong
trades will still continue north of Colombia, south of Hispaniola,
and over the Gulf of Honduras on Sun and Sun night. Rough to very
rough seas will accompany the winds. By Mon and Tue as the
weakened Bermuda High shifts eastward, trades across the Caribbean
will be reduced to only moderate to fresh. Looking ahead, a cold
front may reach the northwest Caribbean Tue with winds shifting
from southeasterly to northerly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W in the Meteo-France forecast
region. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters at 31N38W and
continues to 27N50W and on to 27N63W. Fresh N to NE winds and 6
to 8 ft follow the front. The subtropical ridge is anchored by
1030 mb high pressure east of Bermuda near 24N60W. This pattern is
supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas south
of 25N and west of 45W, with near-gale force winds pulsing off the
northern coast of Hispaniola and near the northern approaches to
the Windward Passage. Mostly moderate winds and seas are noted
elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, another cold front moving
into Morocco extends into the eastern Atlantic from 25N15W to
25N30W. Gentle to moderate breezes follow the front and dominate
east of 35W, but with N swell of 7 to 11 ft north of 15N and east
of 35W, and 5 to 7 ft farther south.

For the forecast west of 55W, the strong Bermuda High will
continue to force fresh to strong trades south of 25N through
tonight. As the Bermuda High weakens on Sat through early next
week, fresh to strong trades will be restricted to near the SE
Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Beginning Sat night, a large N
swell will start impacting the waters east of 60W and will subside
through late Tue. Fresh to locally strong S winds will develop
off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a
cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The cold
front is forecast to move off of the coast Mon night, and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by mid week, followed by fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas.

$$
Christensen
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485
AXNT20 KNHC 050906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front/frontal trough moving
across the north-central Atlantic will move into the discussion
waters south of 31N today and reach from 31N44W to 29N52W by this
evening. SW winds to gale-force are expected within around 90 nm
ahead of the front north of 28N. Winds will diminish below gale-
force Sun morning as the front shifts southeastward. Meanwhile, a
related large N swell will start impacting the waters east of 62W
tonight and will subside by mid-week. This swell will produce seas
12 to around 20 ft south of 31N from Sat night through Mon, then
gradually subside afterward. Seas of 12 ft or greater will reach
to 18N Mon night.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
1026 mb high pressure located SW of Bermuda and a 1008 mb
Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean through Sat night. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia are expected to remain at or
near gale-force until around sunrise today, and will peak back at
gale-force again tonight with seas reaching 12 to 14 ft under the
strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front
will emerge off of the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to near-gale N
winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front over the
western Gulf Sun and Mon, with northerly gales forecast near
Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz Sun afternoon. The cold
front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, then extends southwestward to 04N17W.
An ITCZ continues from 04N17W to the NE coast of Brazil near
00.5S47W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from
the Equator to 04.5N between 24.5W and 30W, and from the Equator
to 04N between 44W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

Fresh to strong SE winds continue across most of the Gulf early
this morning, between high pressure over the western Atlantic
near Bermuda and 1003 mb low pressure over NE Mexico. This
sustained return flow is producing seas of 8 ft and higher across
most of the waters W of 87W and N of 21N, with peak seas of 10-11
ft. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the remainder of the basin, except to
9 ft in the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are occurring
over the NW Gulf due to convergent surface winds in the area.
Recent satellite imagery also indicates the development of sea fog
within roughly 60 nm of the TX and LA coasts, with low visibility
being a potential hazard in these areas.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and low pressure over south-central U.S. will continue
forcing fresh to near-gale SE winds across the basin today. The
moist SE flow may allow areas of sea fog to persist across the
northern Gulf into this morning. A strong late-season cold front
will emerge off of the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to near gale N
winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front over the
western Gulf Sun and Mon, with northerly gales forecast near
Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz Sun afternoon. The cold
front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N winds. The front will
weaken as it moves southeast of the area Tue followed by weak high
pressure over the northern Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish
accordingly through Tue night in all but the far southeast Gulf
where fresh winds and rough seas may persist.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of
Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

Gale-force winds off the northern coast of Colombia persist early
this morning due to a tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian low. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by fresh to strong trades, including the
northern Caribbean passages, except near gale-force in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are 6 to 10 ft across the majority of the basin,
with localized seas up to 12 to 14 ft offshore of northern
Colombia Colombia.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient from the Bermuda
High to the Colombian Low will continue to produce gale-force
winds N of Colombia until around sunrise, with another round
forecast tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these
winds. Fresh to near-gale trades will prevail across most of the
remainder of the basin, including Atlantic passages and the Gulf
of Honduras. By early next week, as the weakening Bermuda High
shifts eastward, trades across the Caribbean will be reduced to
moderate to fresh. A cold front may reach the northwest Caribbean
Tue with winds shifting from southeasterly to northerly behind it.
The front may then stall and dissipate over the NW Caribbean mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters east of
42W. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A weakening cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters along
31N24W and continues to 24N48W. A surface trough, formerly part
of the aforementioned front, then extends from 24N48W to 25N65W.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas follow the
front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and
within 100 nm ahead of the front. The subtropical ridge is
anchored by 1026 mb high pressure SW of Bermuda near 29N67W. This
pattern is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 10
ft seas from offshore of the northern portion of the Greater
Antilles through the Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Mostly
moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere across the basin,
except moderate to fresh S of 19N where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a Bermuda High will continue to
force fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas from
offshore of the northern portion of the Greater Antilles through
the Bahamas and Straits of Florida through tonight. A frontal
trough will rotate through the NE waters today and tonight,
bringing fresh to strong winds through tonight. At the same time,
a large N swell will start impacting the waters east of 62W
tonight and will subside by mid-week. Fresh to strong S winds will
develop off the coast of northeast Florida tonight and Mon ahead
of a cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The
front is forecast to move off of the coast Mon night, and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by mid-week where it may stall and
become a trough. This front will be followed by fresh to strong NE
winds and moderate to rough seas.

$$
Lewitsky
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723
AXNT20 KNHC 060932
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning/Swell Event: A cold front is moving
southward east of Bermuda and is now along 30N. Recent
scatterometer satellite data indicated SW winds to minimal gale
force within 90 nm ahead of the front. In addition to the gale
force winds, buoy observations and altimeter satellite data
indicated large N swell is following the front. The front will
continue southward east of 65W through early next week, before
eventually stalling and dissipating along 20N by late Tue. Winds
will diminish below gale- force through late Sun. Meanwhile, the
swell will produce seas 12 ft as far south as 18N through Mon
night, with highest seas near 30N around 23 ft. The swell will
subside below 12 ft through mid week.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1025 mb high
pressure of 1025 mb southwest of Bermuda near 31N70W and a 1010
mb Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near- gale
force trades across the south-central Caribbean through tonight.
Winds will peak at gale-force through the early morning off
Colombia with seas reaching to 12 ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front is
moving into the northwest Gulf this morning. The front will reach
from Mobile Bay to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by Sun evening, followed
by strong to near- gale force N winds and building seas. Winds
will reach gale force off Tampico, Mexico Sun morning, and off
Veracruz, Mexico by Sun afternoon. The winds will diminish below
gale force into Mon night, as the front reaches from Cedar Key,
Florida to near Merida, Mexico, but strong winds and rough seas
will follow the front across most of the western Gulf.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to near the coast of
Brazil near 02S47W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
02S to 04N between 10W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A strong late-season cold front extends from near Cameron,
Louisiana to Tecolutla, Mexico. A recent buoy observations and
scatterometer satellite data showed strong to near- gale force
northerly winds and seas to 9 ft following the front over the
northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and 8 to 11 ft seas
are noted across the central Gulf ahead of the front, and moderate
to fresh SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident across the
eastern Gulf. The moist southerly flow ahead of the front is
sustaining areas of sea fog, and platform observations indicate
visibility is 2 to 5 miles in these areas. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are active over Matagorda Bay in Texas
following the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Mobile Bay to
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico this evening, followed by strong to near-
gale force N winds and building seas. Winds will reach gale force
off Tampico, Mexico later this morning, and off Veracruz, Mexico
by this afternoon. The winds will diminish below gale force into
Mon night, as the front reaches from Cedar Key, Florida to near
Merida, Mexico, but strong winds and rough seas will follow the
front across most of the western Gulf. Winds and seas will
diminish through Tue from west to east as high pressure builds
over the southern Plains and the front moves southeast of the
basin. Looking ahead, gentle breezes and slight seas will persist
Wed into Thu in all but the southeast Gulf, where large swell may
persist through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of
Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate strong to near- gale
force winds off Colombia, in the Gulf of Honduras and across the
Windward Passage. Since this pass occurred around 0130 UTC, the
winds off Colombia have likely increased to gale force. The
observations also confirm fresh to strong E to SE winds across the
basin, except for the eastern Caribbean, south of Cuba in the
northwest Caribbean, and south of 10N off Panama and Costa Rica.
These winds are due to a tight gradient between 1025 mb high
pressure west of Bermuda, and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. Altimeter satellite data and buoy observations indicate
9 to 13 ft over the central Caribbean, 8 to 11 ft over the Gulf of
Honduras and off Belize, 7 to 9 ft in the Windward Passage, and 5
to 8 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
between Haiti and Jamaica and south of the Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, the Atlantic Passages and the
Gulf of Honduras through this morning, with another pulse of gale-
force winds expected offshore of Colombia tonight. Rough to very
rough seas will accompany these winds. The Bermuda high will
weaken and shift eastward late Sun through mid-week, leading to
diminishing trades across the Caribbean. A cold front is expected
to reach the northwest Caribbean Tue morning, with fresh to
locally strong northerly winds filling in behind it. The front
will move eastward and stall from central Cuba to NE Honduras and
through Thu before dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters east of
40W. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

In addition to the gale-force winds ahead of the cold front described
in the Special Features section, fresh to strong winds and rough
seas are noted near the front covering the area north of 28N
between 30W and 55W. Farther west, 1025 mb high pressure is centered
southwest of Bermuda near 30N72W. Recent scatterometer satellite
data shows this pattern is supporting fresh to strong E winds
near the approaches of the Windward Passage and north of Haiti. It
also show E to SE winds in the Old Bahama Channel between Cuba and
the Bahamas. Moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds are
evident over the tropical Atlantic, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Farther
east, fresh N winds and rough seas are noted off Senegal. Gentle
to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh N to NE winds and large swell
follow a cold front extending from 31N38W to 27N55W to 31N65W.
High pressure southwest of Bermuda is supporting fresh to strong
winds off the north coast of Hispaniola and near the approaches to
the Windward Passage, and fresh to strong S winds off northeast
Florida ahead of an approaching cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, the
front will generally stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by mid-
week, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas.

$$
Christensen
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